Protesters in Ukraine remind us of the priceless benefits of being EU members

[BillyB]

To this point I think Obama has done about all the majority of the American public would agree to, so I don't blame him. 
 

I do blame Obama because he's educated on America's commitments and the stakes in this. Most Americans are happy with their lives, don't pay attention to the news and I've seen a poll where only 45% of Americans are following the events in Crimea closely. They don't follow history and understand events like this mirror Hitler's annexation of Austria and Czechoslovakia which likely leads to addressing much bigger problems with much more cost in life. I seriously doubt with the money Russia invested in Ukraine and after learning the West is weak, Putin's going to stop at Crimea. Putin needs a return on his investment and needs to get his name written in history books. I seriously doubt Putin will fight America. He truly wants to make Russia strong again and losing a war isn't going to do that.


Obama has a responsibility to educate Americans on our commitment to Ukraine just as we have commitments to NATO members. Instead he's more worried about his tanking approval ratings. He could help reverse that if he MAN's up in times like this. He should remind Americans that Ukraine gave up their nukes at OUR request in exchange for security. At the beginning, we should've parked our troops in Crimea and joined Russia in keeping the peace. Putin wouldn't start a war, instead he'd pretend to enjoy the added protection the Russian citizens living there will get.


Obama's weakness is America's weakness and this will effect how we do business with other countries long past this crisis. If I were a NATO member such as Poland, I'd be very disappointed with Europe and America's commitment to protecting Ukraine. Our promises mean little. If the American government promised you a lifetime of security if you gave up your guns, would you likely believe them more or less now? If I were Iran and North Korea, I'd pursue nukes harder while America is showing weakness and busy dealing with Russia. I wish Reagan was running the show here. That guy doesn't Fukc around.

Realty is most of those Crimeans DO want to be aligned with Russia, and so just letting them go isn't that hard to do.     

Once Putin realize the west is giving up Crimea and it's not going to hurt our feelings, he will test us to learn if giving up east Ukraine is hard on us, then west. Like Crimea, Putin will convince the world most Ukrainians like Russia and after all, most Ukrainians did(cough) vote for Yanukovych, their puppet. I don't think Putin is going to pursue anything more than Ukraine but I can assure you the ex Soviet satellite countries think differently, are nervous and have already stepped up the training of their militaries.


Anyway, I still laugh about the "costs" Obama has imposed on a few Russians in exchange for Crimea. Putin got a good deal but Obama will probably DOUBLE the costs if Russia enters east Ukraine and I will double the laugh. Obama shouldn't keep these "costs" secret and do Putin a favor by sending him a price list of the costs of taking over a region, a nation, and multiple nations if Putin so chooses. As cozy as both of them been in the past, Putin may also qualify for Obama's friends and family discount.

[calmissile]

One thing that seems to get lost in all this chatter is the commitment made to Ukraine in order to have them give up their nuclear weapons.  There is no expiration date!!

Read the agreement.

http://www.cfr.org/arms-control-disarmament-and-nonproliferation/budapest-memorandums-security-assurances-1994/p32484

Russia signed the agreement along with the UK and the USA.  Russia has violated that agreement and it is important for the UK and the USA to enforce it.   If not, who will ever respect any treaties that either country enters into in the future?

[lordtiberius]

Jeez, jone, you post a lot.  Maybe you should take a break.

gqB, you sound alike a Putin apologist. I hope you offer refunds.

This is a game between Putin & Obama and in this regard, Obama can't win because he is more concerned about boys, cocaine and smiting Republicans - in that order.  Putin has had the weaker hand in all the engagements but he has still managed to win most of the decisive engagements.

Mr. Putin's problem is that he bet on the wrong horse from the jump and he has doubled down on every bad decision he has made.  For example, Viktor Yanukovych.  The problem is that he bet against the Ukrainian people.  Putin will not win against these people.  Remember all wars are spiritual struggles and he cannot defeat their spirit.



This video was made a day ago.  It has 33,000 views.  This video and others like it more effective than his million dollar propaganda studios.  These videos impeach his war effort that he absolutely has to maintain to effect his war effort and more importantly stay in power.

If the Balkans are any indication of the morality of the Europeans, like I said this will be a proxy war and as usual, the Ukrainians have Putin in a Mexican stand off.  You see the problem with war is that you expose yourself - you reveal your weaknesses unwillingly to your enemies on and off the battlefield.  Putin does not want to expose his weaknesses.  He wants to bluff.  The minute his forces in Rostov, Crimea, in the North and in Belarus cross the border, as soon as his jets begin their first sorties, he will reveal to the world just how strong his forces are.  Can he maintain the logistical war effort for a combined arms campaign?  He does not want to be exposed like the Chinese when they failed to invade Vietnam.

Then can Putin respond to the cauldron.  The  cauldron is what the German soldiers called Stalingrad.  It is the same strategy the Chechens employed when they won the first Chechen war.  The Ukrainians could check the advance - maybe even delay it - but they would be wise to train that National Guard by teaching those MEN how to shoot.  An infantryman is only as good as his ability to shoot over and over and over again.  They need body armor good helmets and training especially when it comes to fire and manuever - but really what they need is 3 weeks on the range during basic training and one day every week until the Russians eventually come.

If the Russians come, the shedding of blood always disrupts the political calculus of all these things.  Whatever happens NATO or the UN may establish a no fly zone in Western Ukraine to train troops and provide infrastructure - that and all the NATO bases along Russia's border will be the flashpoints of a wider conflict.

Although jone is brilliant, I don't agree with him that economics or sanction which have been by all accounts weak will have any effect on Putin at all.  Put wants only one thing - the price of gas to keep going up.  And in the regard and until we take it away, he has the ball.

[jone]

I think the debate will occur as to whether the Rada had the right under the former constitution to vote out Yanukovych.  He had insulated himself through laws and with as much power as he could to prevent just what occurred.  From Russia's point of view, it was an illegal uprising. The arbitrated agreement at the end of EuroMaidan was never signed off by the Russians, even though a faction of the Party or Regions sided with the majority to not only displace Yanukovych but reduce the powers of the President in accordance with earlier versions of the constitution.  (Keep in mind the Feb. 21st agreement was arbitrated by the German FM and the Polish FM.)

Yanukovych, personally, knew that with his government mandate failing, that he would soon be under scrutiny that would lead to both his arrest and conviction.  This, above any other reason, caused him to leave the country.

The simple fact of the matter is that Yanukovych surrendered his right to lead.

I don't believe Russia had any master plan.  Subsequent to the failure of the Yanukovych government, the best thing Russia could have done was to secure him for posterity to trot him out any time Russia needed a puppet to justify its actions.  Everything that transpired since Euromaidan has been opportunistic for Russia and Putin - as the only possible course of action.

In reality, it is a dead end.  The end game, unless Putin invades, is that Krim is in Russian hands and is an Albatross lying on the beach of the Black Sea.  Supporting Krim now becomes Moscow's job.    Ukraine, unfettered by the Nationalist Russians in Krim, now immediately seeks out European Union alliances. 

**************************************

Note:  While I am writing this I am led to understand that the political aspects of the EU agreement will be signed by Ukraine immediately......

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/17/us-ukraine-crisis-agreement-idUSBREA2G1BC20140317

**************************************

Russia can only wring its hands as the majority influence that it previously had with Krim and Eastern Ukraine is now stripped away by the separation of Krim from the rest of the Mainland.  Voting will be monumental in future Ukrainian elections.  Ukraine will be anti-Russian in any future votes of government. 

Ukraine has called up 40,000 reservists.  While I don't believe these people will be used to invade Krim, I do believe that these soldiers will secure the border and rid Ukraine of any 'Political Tourists' from Russia.

[southernX]

gq They just helped overthrew a legitimate government by force . 

all the existing members of the rada are still the same elected people who sat under yanukovich , no new members elected yet until may , so the gov was not overthrown

gq  ousted an elected president. 

nah , the bloke left of his own free will , even his initial press statements said he went to kharkiv for meetings etc,
he chose not to return and was impeached and sacked by the rada , including members of his own party
the rada then elected  new members to gov leadership posts as an interim measure until full elections can be held

given the situation , and speed of events , they havent done a bad job so far , with some minor exceptions

SX

[calmissile]

FWIW, I found the US foreign aid figures for Ukraine.
The data was taken from..http://gbk.eads.usaidallnet.gov/query/do

Nearly 2.5 billion in only the years 2001 thru 2012.

Hopefully the .xlsx file will be accepted.  If not it can be reconstructed from this selection.....

You are here: U.S. Overseas Loans and Grants > Foreign Assistance Data > Detailed Data > Country Reports (historical dollars) > Country Account Report

Anyone know how much the Kremlin contributed to help Ukraine over the same period?

How much of it ended up in Yanukovich's pocket is unknown.

[Dewed]

Not trying to be Probama here    but I see the initial sanctions as just that, initial. It's political chess, Obama just moved a pawn in response to Russia's opening move. It would be unwise to bring out a knight this early in the game.

Since I love a good pun, I guess that makes him/US the black pieces.

Anyways, welcome all to the new not so cold war.. be safe.

[JayH]

Anyone know how much the Kremlin contributed to help Ukraine over the same period?

How much of it ended up in Yanukovich's pocket is unknown.

At a guess-- about 150% !!
Seriously-- all these western economists are clueless when counting--the Kremlin boys just got 123% voter turnout on the weekend to!!

[Chelseaboy]

justme100,

                With reference to your post 1389,no I've never been to Crimea.

However,i presume the Ukrainian tourists/holidaymakers would use hotels or rent apartments there ?

Or do they all bring their own tents ?

[JayH]

justme100,

                With reference to your post 1389,no I've never been to Crimea.

However,i presume the Ukrainian tourists/holidaymakers would use hotels or rent apartments there ?

Or do they all bring their own tents ?

CB--My apologies for butting in !! The Crimea is a magic please-truly one of the wonders of the world- beautiful,interesting with wonderful history from many eras. A place that makes you feel humble.
It has attractions for billionaires(even legitimate ones!) to affordable places for average Ukrainians of all ages to have their annual seaside holidays. There is hundreds of kms of coastline and many places to access the water. Some wonderful sandy beaches-hot in summer-the most moderate climate in Ukraine in winter.The bigger cities are buzzing in summer with tourists from all over- not just fsu countries.
I am not sure if I will ever get to return there now-- and already feeling sorry at the thought.
Reading JMs contempt for Ukrainians is hardly a surprise-- all the hoi poloi is beneath her elevated status !! LOVL>

[sleepycat]

No government can please everybody but I'm glad you're happy Justme100 in having your wishes come true. But if some American man claims you for his own and steals you from Crimea,

Justme100 doesn't need an American man now! Now that Crimea has returned to the Motherland, she has access to a large dating pool of alcoholic RM to choose from.

[Anotherkiwi]

Justme100 doesn't need an American man now! Now that Crimea has returned to the Motherland, she has access to a large dating pool of alcoholic RM to choose from.

As opposed to the alcoholic UM she could choose before?  She has had that option for her whole life in any case.  Justme is a very pretty young woman, who would be spoilt for choice anywhere - depending, of course, on how she voiced her political opinions.    For me, however, her refusal to believe any viewpoint other than her own rather reduces her standing in the pecking order of the FSUW on here.  That to me is rather sad, as well as surprising, because many of her earlier posts displayed a viewpoint which seemed much less blinkered (I may, of course, have a slightly rose-coloured memory, because I'm not going back to re-read all of them).

I'm also starting to wonder if her identity has been hijacked, as her written English language skills (especially for an interpreter/guide) seem to be somewhat less proficient than (say) a year ago.  Maybe it's just like JayH - typing accurately on a tiny phone keyboard is pretty difficult!

[JayH]

I repeated quote below-- it just came in and  I thought it interesting!!

"We must all understand that the Kremlin's troll is not just, just to earn a few rubles, this is quote: "In January-February 2012, the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) held three closed tender with code words" Storm-12 "," Monitor-3 "and" Dispute "in excess of 30 million rubles. whose purpose - to develop new methods of monitoring the blogosphere, and the main task -" mass distribution of information messages in the given social networks with a view to the formation of public opinion. " We have the same situation, in this regard .. (when our intelligence agencies-were transferred to the ex-president Yanukovich - Russia, they hope, you know .. we've got a system of ill-putanizmom, the government is just starting to dig all this stuff, but too many problems in the country and the Russian poke a stick in the wheel) What is it all: Ukraine very weakened .. but it-is, we are. why all broadcasts about the situation in Ukraine, says convey their point of view."

[AnonMod]

Keep posts on the issue, not the poster.  This is a simple request and has been made several times on this thread.  Further failures to do so will result in the thread being locked.

[fathertime]

I do blame Obama because he's educated on America's commitments and the stakes in this. Most Americans are happy with their lives, don't pay attention to the news and I've seen a poll where only 45% of Americans are following the events in Crimea closely. They don't follow history and understand events like this mirror Hitler's annexation of Austria and Czechoslovakia which likely leads to addressing much bigger problems with much more cost in life. I seriously doubt with the money Russia invested in Ukraine and after learning the West is weak, Putin's going to stop at Crimea. Putin needs a return on his investment and needs to get his name written in history books. I seriously doubt Putin will fight America. He truly wants to make Russia strong again and losing a war isn't going to do that.


Obama has a responsibility to educate Americans on our commitment to Ukraine just as we have commitments to NATO members. Instead he's more worried about his tanking approval ratings. He could help reverse that if he MAN's up in times like this. He should remind Americans that Ukraine gave up their nukes at OUR request in exchange for security. At the beginning, we should've parked our troops in Crimea and joined Russia in keeping the peace. Putin wouldn't start a war, instead he'd pretend to enjoy the added protection the Russian citizens living there will get.


Obama's weakness is America's weakness and this will effect how we do business with other countries long past this crisis. If I were a NATO member such as Poland, I'd be very disappointed with Europe and America's commitment to protecting Ukraine. Our promises mean little. If the American government promised you a lifetime of security if you gave up your guns, would you likely believe them more or less now? If I were Iran and North Korea, I'd pursue nukes harder while America is showing weakness and busy dealing with Russia. I wish Reagan was running the show here. That guy doesn't Fukc around.




Once Putin realize the west is giving up Crimea and it's not going to hurt our feelings, he will test us to learn if giving up east Ukraine is hard on us, then west. Like Crimea, Putin will convince the world most Ukrainians like Russia and after all, most Ukrainians did(cough) vote for Yanukovych, their puppet. I don't think Putin is going to pursue anything more than Ukraine but I can assure you the ex Soviet satellite countries think differently, are nervous and have already stepped up the training of their militaries.


Anyway, I still laugh about the "costs" Obama has imposed on a few Russians in exchange for Crimea. Putin got a good deal but Obama will probably DOUBLE the costs if Russia enters east Ukraine and I will double the laugh. Obama shouldn't keep these "costs" secret and do Putin a favor by sending him a price list of the costs of taking over a region, a nation, and multiple nations if Putin so chooses. As cozy as both of them been in the past, Putin may also qualify for Obama's friends and family discount.

Hey Billyb, you make good arguments and I appreciate hearing your perspective. 
Many people make the "Hitler" analogy, but I don't think that is the case.  The circumstances are different now.  The US and Russia have atomic weapons and could destroy the world for EVERYBODY.  In my opinion, this is NOT about whether Russia gets a little stronger and if that is good/bad for the US of A.  In some ways I think it is good if Russia gets a little stronger. 


I don't think Putin will allow Russia to lose the war.  Being that he is probably willing to go 'all in', he isn't going to lose.  Our option is to also go all-in, which we are not going to do..so that leaves us the other option, which is to home...and apply some goofy sanctions.  But hey if enough countries ratchet them up enough, it could certainly discourage wanton use of force. 


I read this morning that a Republic in Moldavia is also talking about going back under Russia's wing.  I say No problem, let them go if that is what they want.  Contain the spread of the disease by cutting off the dead parts and let the rest of the country thrive, if that is how it has to be..


I agree with you that Obama has not done a good job of educating the American public...I think he is doing that intentionally, because he doesn't want to do very much in this situation.


Fathertime!   


Fathertime!

[Muzh]

Well, I have no idea what is Fox news like, but I can see in what direction you prefer to keep the conversation, so... Yes, it's exactly like Fox News!  It's a main Kremlin brain-washing tool. 

I just posted something from one of your Russian compatriots. Feel free to debunk the propaganda. 

[BillyB]

It's political chess, Obama just moved a pawn in response to Russia's opening move. It would be unwise to bring out a knight this early in the game.

Whatever game Putin is playing, he's clearly winning. If we're lucky and all Putin wants is Crimea, the game is already over and Putin has won. Putin believes Obama will continue to move pawns if he pursues the rest of Ukraine so Putin will continue to move his knights.


In exchange for a large piece of land, the "sanctions" slapped on a few Russian officials isn't even worthy of being called a pawn. Obama doesn't even have the guts to slap sanctions on Putin himself. Most people and nations of the world see Obama's actions as weak. They don't view him as some major strategist saving up his big moves in a chess game. A great chess player would never let himself get this far behind his opponent. Putin may not be liked by many at this forum but he's clearly the stronger and smarter leader who took Crimea without firing a shot. Now all he has to do is convince the rest of the world most Ukrainians like Russia, set up a few more elections and he'll have the rest of Ukraine in a short time. This isn't over. Putin's not planning a party for a job well done or a vacation after all his hard work, he's planning his next moves on the best way to proceed....without firing a shot.

[BillyB]

he's planning his next moves on the best way to proceed....without firing a shot.

lol, just read a Russian newspaper report that a region of Moldova is considering joining Russia. I wonder if Putin will assist them with that?

[Gator]

For me, however, her [Justme] refusal to believe any viewpoint other than her own...

Most of us give more weight to our own viewpoint.     I agree that she did not give much consideration to others in this case.  Yet one can become more dogmatic when outnumbered in a discussion.  Plus she is a FSUW - what would you expect!

.... rather reduces her standing in the pecking order of the FSUW on here.

 

Why separate into FSUW and non-FSUW - we are all RWD members.  We should welcome opposing viewpoints; otherwise this place would be boring.   Putin's move in Crimea is remarkable to us, so one can only imagine the feelings of those who live in Crimea and see it firsthand.  And Justme gave us that view.     

That to me is rather sad, as well as surprising, because many of her earlier posts displayed a viewpoint which seemed much less blinkered

We should give her some slack as everyone in Crimea seemed to be caught up in the fervor that swept through there.

I noted that she often she provided some factual information (e. g., doubling of her salary) that was not forthcoming from other posters. 

I hope Justme continues to post at RWD about what she sees in Crimea. 

[GQBlues]

...But upon a revolution, like that seen in Prague - and people totally dedicated to the models of other Eastern European nations - and the paths they have taken - there is great hope that Ukraine can emerge from the current situation, now unfettered by the militant Russian communities in Krim.  (After all where did the bulk of the Berkut come from?)...

What historical revolution are you talking about? The Prague Spring of '68? That revolution that saw 600,000 Warsaw Pact troops quelled a hapless revolution and witness the demise of Dubcek?

Like the '56 Hungarian revolt before it, the revolution went nowhere...

[jone]

Well, I wouldn't be quoting Havel if it were not the Velvet Revolution.   

[Muzh]

What historical revolution are you talking about? The Prague Spring of '68? That revolution that saw 600,000 Warsaw Pact troops quelled a hapless revolution and witness the death of Dubcek?

The revolution went nowhere...

I think he was referring to the Velvet Revolution.
 
BTW, great music came from that revolution too!!

[GQBlues]

Well, I wouldn't be quoting Havel if it were not the Velvet Revolution.   

Then it hardly compares to Ukraine's latest revolt now, does it?

The velvet revolution saw no violence and it happened at the period of the iron curtain's fall from grace. Where all strategic sphere of influences were all but secondary and breakaway states have all been assured of independence.

No comparison.

[GQBlues]

GQ--  a couple of points-- the legitimate government voted a corrupt leader out legitimately.The protest events provided the catalyst .From that point--the new interim legitimate  government has made steps to enhance the chances of a democratic future for Ukraine-- a chance at a future for Ukrainians....

LOL, and we demonize the media for spinning any event? Yeah, well, point taken then, good fella.

[ML]

One thing that seems to get lost in all this chatter is the commitment made to Ukraine in order to have them give up their nuclear weapons.  There is no expiration date!!

Read the agreement.

http://www.cfr.org/arms-control-disarmament-and-nonproliferation/budapest-memorandums-security-assurances-1994/p32484

Russia signed the agreement along with the UK and the USA.  Russia has violated that agreement and it is important for the UK and the USA to enforce it.   If not, who will ever respect any treaties that either country enters into in the future?

Doug, it is important to read that document carefully.  (And note that China and France signed on later).

The document does not commit the USA to help Ukraine fight against those who attack or invade Ukraine.

The document only states that the signing countries themselves will not attack or invade Ukraine.  Thus, only Russia has violated the agreement.

The document does state that the signing countries will "seek immediate United Nations Security Council action to provide assistance to Ukraine, as a non-nuclear-weapon State party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, if Ukraine should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used;"

So even in the current case, since no nuclear weapons used, USA is not even obligated to seek UN help.

In short, USA never signed anything saying it would help Ukraine in the event of an attack or invasion . . . USA only said it would not be the country to attack or invade Ukraine.

= = = = = = = = =

Now . . . completely aside from this "Budapest Memorandum" . . . the USA and any other country can provide any and all assistance to Ukraine that it chooses . . . with some understanding of the consequences.