Ukraine! What do your friends and family say?

[jone]

One of the friends of this forum, a beautiful Ukrainian lady, recently changed her facebook page to reflect a field of black with a blue and gold diagonal stripe down the side.  In it, she asked for prayers for all Ukrainians, particularly those in Kyiv.

Recently, I've put a couple of references to Ukraine in my own personal blog.  The number of responses I receive are tremendous.  At first, the responses are inquisitive.  People want to know why there is disharmony in Ukraine.  Then, upon learning the tribulations of this proud, yet poor country, there is an outpouring of support.

I fear that the country is going into a new phase of confrontation.  I don't think that the current government will survive another month or two.  What evolves from this 'revolution' is anyone's guess.

1.  Will Tymoshenko be released and once again hold a mantle of power?
2.  Will the Russians withdraw their support and assistance if the country turns to a Western doctrine?
3.  Will the pro Russian East rebel against a government made up of opposition leaders?
4.  Will the economy tank under the continuing pressure of pre-revolution activity?

I am curious to know what opinions are held by people on this board.   For many seeking significant others in Ukraine, the political activity is significant if only it is impeding your search.

What do you think?  Are your plans changing due to the evolving political situation?  If you have informed your friends and family of your planned search, are they reticent about having you continue to explore in a country fueled by revolutionary activity?

Let us know!

[Shadow]

For those looking at the situation, also consider that many people there act on misinformation that was spread.
As you may know there has been a long standing invitation from the EU to Ukriane for a trade union and visa-free travel arrangements.
This has been malformed by some to being an invitation for Ukraine to join the EU as full member.
While a free trade association is in general a first step towards membership, there is nothing that indicates Ukraine will receive a full EU membership as 'reward' for changing government.
At this time the EU has abundant people from Poland working to provide cheap labour to countries like Germany, Holland and Belgium.
With the borders of Romania and Bulgaria now unrestricted, they will flood with even lower labour prices.
Spain has been recovering well, but Italy and France are not yet healthy, and Greece remains in trouble. Other countries are also far from overflowing with money, and the last thing the EU needs is a country that is in need of economical help.
Without Ukraine successfully increasing its economy and removing the current corruption, they have no chance to become a member of the EU. Even in the most successful recovery they will need minimal 10 to 15 years. This is what Yanukovich understood and why he decided to get immediate funding by making agreements with Russia. Not to remove the desire to join the EU, but to give Ukraine a boost that would help towards achieving that goal.
Unfortunately misinformation is rampant and many people believe that reinstatement of Timoschenko as prime-minister will obtain them an instant full EU membership.

Ukraine will not become calm for a long time unless people stop twisting the truth.

[lordtiberius]

I fear more Civil War is ahead if people feel like my friend does.  I oppose any more violence.  Everyone blames Yanukovych.

For those looking at the situation, also consider that many people there act on misinformation that was spread.
As you may know there has been a long standing invitation from the EU to Ukriane for a trade union and visa-free travel arrangements.
This has been malformed by some to being an invitation for Ukraine to join the EU as full member.
While a free trade association is in general a first step towards membership, there is nothing that indicates Ukraine will receive a full EU membership as 'reward' for changing government.
At this time the EU has abundant people from Poland working to provide cheap labour to countries like Germany, Holland and Belgium.
With the borders of Romania and Bulgaria now unrestricted, they will flood with even lower labour prices.
Spain has been recovering well, but Italy and France are not yet healthy, and Greece remains in trouble. Other countries are also far from overflowing with money, and the last thing the EU needs is a country that is in need of economical help.
Without Ukraine successfully increasing its economy and removing the current corruption, they have no chance to become a member of the EU. Even in the most successful recovery they will need minimal 10 to 15 years. This is what Yanukovich understood and why he decided to get immediate funding by making agreements with Russia. Not to remove the desire to join the EU, but to give Ukraine a boost that would help towards achieving that goal.
Unfortunately misinformation is rampant and many people believe that reinstatement of Timoschenko as prime-minister will obtain them an instant full EU membership.

Ukraine will not become calm for a long time unless people stop twisting the truth.

This is the same rhetorical device BHO uses to vilify those who disagree with him.  "There are those who say it . . . "  This a straw man fallacy.  Who says this Shadow?  No one.

[Shadow]

I fear more Civil War is ahead if people feel like my friend does.  I oppose any more violence.  Everyone blames Yanukovych.

This is the same rhetorical device BHO uses to vilify those who disagree with him.  "There are those who say it . . . "  This a straw man fallacy.  Who says this Shadow?  No one.

People on Odnoklasniki and Vkontake are discussing this in their groups. So there are a lot of peole who say this, perhaps you may wish to join some groups and read what local people have to say instead of making things up in your own mind.

[jone]

Shadow,

Regardless of the blockage of entree into the European Union (and I agree with most of your perspective) too much water has gone over the damn to go back to a stable Yanokovic led government.

I, too, have read many of the dialogues that are occurring right now.  My take is that many people believe that the circle of oppression has to be be broken.  Every business transaction in Ukraine is rife with old Eastern European graft and corruption.  It is almost like the stagnant continuation of the Ottoman Empire. 

While there is not a plurality of revolutionary opinion, most Ukrainians I know believe that the European model for business is the future for this embattled country.  (However they get there.)

[Shadow]

Shadow,

Regardless of the blockage of entree into the European Union (and I agree with most of your perspective) too much water has gone over the damn to go back to a stable Yanokovic led government.

I, too, have read many of the dialogues that are occurring right now.  My take is that many people believe that the circle of oppression has to be be broken.  Every business transaction in Ukraine is rife with old Eastern European graft and corruption.  It is almost like the stagnant continuation of the Ottoman Empire. 

While there is not a plurality of revolutionary opinion, most Ukrainians I know believe that the European model for business is the future for this embattled country.  (However they get there.)

I do not disagree with you that the bomb to change back government to the Orange line has gone off premature, with as result a rather difficult situation. Oppression will change from one side to other, and this threatens to divide the country rather than make it move forward. Yanukovich did not reach power because of his own success, but more because of the failure of the government before him. Reverting to them will not bring success, just as Yanukovich has failed to keep stability.
What Ukraine needs at this time is their own version of Putin. Not in the way that they have to be a puppet of Russia, but a strong leader who can gather enough support to have his ideas executed, and can obtain enough respect from those who may not agree with him to allow him giving direction. Right now all that happens is people being thrown around from one side to another, while in the end everyone suffers.
There should not be a choice between Russia and the EU, Ukraine should work towards good relations with both. Russia can provide immediate support and short term help to get the country up from the ground. The EU is a long-term economic perspective for investment and a large market for Ukrainian export. The people of Ukraine have shown to be able to use democratic rights to show their opinion, and deserve to be heard. Not just one side of them, but all sides.
And they should find a way to unite and be Ukraine instead of a puppet from Russia, EU or USA.

[JayH]

 most Ukrainians I know believe that the European model for business is the future for this embattled country.  (However they get there.)

That is the bottom line--how to get there peacefully is what we all hope for.I would add-- not just EU business model-- but standard of government .

I agree with much of Shadows assessment also. While this is not the "Orange" revolution -it is much of the spirit and optimism created then that has come alive again that is driving the current situation.

[SteveOR]

 
You may have missed one of the possibilities:
 
5.  Will the Russian Army invade Ukraine to "keep the peace" and "protect the Ukrainian people from terrorists"?
 
Russia did this to Georgia and still occupies Georgian territory.  The only thing that may be stopping them right now is the Olympics.  It looks bad to be invading your neighbors when the whole world is your guest. . .
 
 

[GregfromGa]

My friends all say I'm nuts for ever going back and now that it's revolution time well they certainly think it. All I can say is it's obvious they have never seen her in those white pants, well that and the dark hair and a good sense of humor does it for me every time. As far as the politics are concerned my friends couldn't find Ukraine on a map if their lives depended on it and that's ok too.

[Chicagoguy]

I had my wife ask her $$$ sister who lives in Kyiv how things were going and she said fine. Another Marie Antoinette me thinks.

[Shadow]

You may have missed one of the possibilities:
 
5.  Will the Russian Army invade Ukraine to "keep the peace" and "protect the Ukrainian people from terrorists"?
 
Russia did this to Georgia and still occupies Georgian territory.  The only thing that may be stopping them right now is the Olympics.  It looks bad to be invading your neighbors when the whole world is your guest. . .

When did they do this to Georgia, and which Georgian territory are they occuying?

[Belvis]

1.  Will Tymoshenko be released and once again hold a mantle of power?
2.  Will the Russians withdraw their support and assistance if the country turns to a Western doctrine?
3.  Will the pro Russian East rebel against a government made up of opposition leaders?
4.  Will the economy tank under the continuing pressure of pre-revolution activity?

1. Tymoshenko can be released as the part of agreement with the opposition. However she had lost any political weight in eyes of Ukrainians. She failed to get support even from Maidan.
2. Putin is a pragmatic man. Russia will have Ukraine as a trade partner but no preferences in that case. It will be the turn of EU to support Ukraine.
3. People of Ukraine hates Yanukovich rule even at East. However they dislikes the pressure from West Ukraine may be more than Yanukovich, who is predictable, at least. I think the chances they will rebel are pretty high, especially if Russia  withdraws the assistance.
4. Right now the economics is not affected as all the revolution concentrated mainly within the center of Kiev. Spread of protests in West Ukraine can hit harder though.

Some links in English about situation there from local  journalist:
http://zyalt.livejournal.com/985632.html
http://zyalt.livejournal.com/984735.html

[SteveOR]

When did they do this to Georgia, and which Georgian territory are they occuying?

2008.  The extent of the continued occupation is disputed by where the checkpoints were and now are in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
 
It is pretty clear that the Georgians fired the first shots in 2008.  I think the expectation was that NATO and the US would come to their aid which of course didn't happen.  Then US President George Bush considered military assistance but decided against armed conflict with Russia.
 
The reasons for the 2008 conflict and the outcome are at a minimum "messy".  But they did happen and the Russian army did invade Georgia and nobody stopped them.  My point is that if Russia can do this to one of its neighbors it can do it to any of them.  Who's going to stop them?  The EU?  The US?  Doubtful in both cases.
 
Here is a very long description of the Georgian conflict from Wikepedia.  I know, take it with a grain of salt but it looks like they have the facts and dates right on this one:
 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Georgia_war
 

[Shadow]

2008.  The extent of the continued occupation is disputed by where the checkpoints were and now are in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
 
It is pretty clear that the Georgians fired the first shots in 2008.  I think the expectation was that NATO and the US would come to their aid which of course didn't happen.  Then US President George Bush considered military assistance but decided against armed conflict with Russia.
 
The reasons for the 2008 conflict and the outcome are at a minimum "messy".  But they did happen and the Russian army did invade Georgia and nobody stopped them.  My point is that if Russia can do this to one of its neighbors it can do it to any of them.  Who's going to stop them?  The EU?  The US?  Doubtful in both cases.
 
Here is a very long description of the Georgian conflict from Wikepedia.  I know, take it with a grain of salt but it looks like they have the facts and dates right on this one:
 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Georgia_war

Point in question: Abkhazia and South-Ossetia are not Georgia.

[Muzh]

You may have missed one of the possibilities:
 
5.  Will the Russian Army invade Ukraine to "keep the peace" and "protect the Ukrainian people from terrorists"?
 
Russia did this to Georgia and still occupies Georgian territory.  The only thing that may be stopping them right now is the Olympics.  It looks bad to be invading your neighbors when the whole world is your guest. . .

Long fly ball to left field......
 
 
No Russians are going into Ukraine because:
 
a) Russia signed an agreement with the US that makes this impossible. See the Budapest memorandum
 
and
 
b) Ukraine has a professional army and Russia doesn't. This is NOT Georgia. However see "a" for the definite answer.

[Muzh]

1. Tymoshenko can be released as the part of agreement with the opposition. However she had lost any political weight in eyes of Ukrainians. She failed to get support even from Maidan.
2. Putin is a pragmatic man. Russia will have Ukraine as a trade partner but no preferences in that case. It will be the turn of EU to support Ukraine.
3. People of Ukraine hates Yanukovich rule even at East. However they dislikes the pressure from West Ukraine may be more than Yanukovich, who is predictable, at least. I think the chances they will rebel are pretty high, especially if Russia  withdraws the assistance.
4. Right now the economics is not affected as all the revolution concentrated mainly within the center of Kiev. Spread of protests in West Ukraine can hit harder though.

Some links in English about situation there from local  journalist:
http://zyalt.livejournal.com/985632.html
http://zyalt.livejournal.com/984735.html

Putin a pragmatic man? LMFAO
 
My bet is the Russians in the Duma are discussing how to contain the domino effect.
 
Ask Mendy for more info.

[die_cast]

My bet is the Russians in the Duma are discussing how to contain the domino effect.

You couldn't imagine in your weirdest dreams what our Duma is discussing. 
Some people here call it "a rabid printer" and they have a reason for it.

[Muzh]

You couldn't imagine in your weirdest dreams what our Duma is discussing. 
Some people here call it "a rabid printer" and they have a reason for it.

LMAO

[SteveOR]

. . .What Ukraine needs at this time is their own version of Putin. Not in the way that they have to be a puppet of Russia, but a strong leader who can gather enough support to have his ideas executed, and can obtain enough respect from those who may not agree with him to allow him giving direction. . .

The Ukrainian version of Lech Walesa maybe?  Who would that be?
 

Point in question: Abkhazia and South-Ossetia are not Georgia.

The Georgians did and probably still do disagree with this.
 

Long fly ball to left field......
 
 
No Russians are going into Ukraine because:
 
a) Russia signed an agreement with the US that makes this impossible. See the Budapest memorandum
 
and
 
b) Ukraine has a professional army and Russia doesn't. This is NOT Georgia. However see "a" for the definite answer.

Czar Putin isn't the type of "supreme" ruler who would let some pesky agreement get between him and what he wants.  If he thinks he can get away with it he may well come to the aid of his poor "Little Russians".  Do you really think that the US will enter armed conflict with Russia to defend this agreement and Ukraine?  Not a chance and the Russians know it.  If Yanu is still in any position of power after the closing ceremonies at the Olympics he may actually "invite" Putin's help.
 
I sincerely hope that the Ukrainian opposition can solidify their position, form some type of government that the rest of the world can recognize and put an end to the violence soon otherwise their future may not be up to them. . .
 

[Muzh]

Czar Putin isn't the type of "supreme" ruler who would let some pesky agreement get between him and what he wants.  If he thinks he can get away with it he may well come to the aid of his poor "Little Russians".  Do you really think that the US will enter armed conflict with Russia to defend this agreement and Ukraine?  Not a chance and the Russians know it.  If Yanu is still in any position of power after the closing ceremonies at the Olympics he may actually "invite" Putin's help.
 
I sincerely hope that the Ukrainian opposition can solidify their position, form some type of government that the rest of the world can recognize and put an end to the violence soon otherwise their future may not be up to them. . .

You give the "Czar" too much credit. His zero sum does not apply here.

[jone]

I was told by some friends in 'outlying' cities that tomorrow more sh### is gonna hit the fan.  If it does, this will take the opposition into a state of rebellion.  What is interesting is that the cities mentioned are not the 'Western Cities' but cities closer to the Eastern Russian part of the country.

[southernX]

we have put off plans to travel back this year due to the current situation there ,
it is definitly unstable at present
my wife and i agree we would like to see elections held as soon as possible to give ukrainians their voice

while she does not like yanukovich , she also hates the opposition for bringing on such public dissent and internal destabilisation, especially vital klitchko ,

she firmly believes europe would only like to suck the blood out of ukraine , for its own gain

putin while not liked is at least respected for being strong and putting russia first at any oppurtunity

myself im agreeing with alot of shadows comments here ,

the one area my wife and i agree to disagree on is the influence of america in this , she is convinced the americans and the west have put thousands of paid protesters on the ground to ''brainwash ''ukrainians into following this protest blindly

we have some interesting discussions at home lately , but no disagreements over it , as its close to both our hearts on a good stable outcome ,
however our discussions do quite clearly show the influence of our different upbringing and how that has shaped our view on government and the peoples influence on it , for me voting is an instrument for change and improvement ,optimistic .  for her its more a resigned sense of fate , that although the faces names will change , not much else will , the endemic system will prevail after each election

SX

[jone]

I wonder how much a good revolution is costing these days?

Let's say:  1000 Protesters.  Three months.  $1000 per month per each.  3 Million dollars gets a revolution!

Damn.  That's a little cheaper than the 15 Billion Putin promised.

[I/O]

putin while not liked is at least respected for being strong and putting russia first at any oppurtunity

I am yet to be convinced Putin has ever placed "Russia or Russians" first.

the one area my wife and i agree to disagree on is the influence of america in this , she is convinced the americans and the west have put thousands of paid protesters on the ground to ''brainwash ''ukrainians into following this protest blindly

Along with the (indisputable) "fact" that she never suffered a head cold or flu prior to meeting you and subsequently being unfairly if not inhumanely forced to drink something cooler than room temperature which BTW, should never be less than about 27 C. 

[Ade]

I wonder how much a good revolution is costing these days?

Let's say:  1000 Protesters.  Three months.  $1000 per month per each.  3 Million dollars gets a revolution!

Damn.  That's a little cheaper than the 15 Billion Putin promised.

I know of a pensioner couple making around 28k a month being paid to protest on one side or the other. Where that money is being sourced from is anyone's guess.