What would a U.S.-Russia war look like?

[justme100]

I have not heard any names of pro Russian candidates.

Oleg Zarev

[jone]

Unfortunately it will be this way if it comes to invasion. There are a lot of people in Ukraine to shoot at the backs of Ukrainians.
30 of March
Kharkiv
Odessa
Donetsk
Lugansk

Sounds like a threat to me.  Are you sure the FSB doesn't pay your bills?

On one side you are advocating revolt and on the other side you are saying if the Ukrainians defend themselves, they will be shot in the back. 

[justme100]

Sounds like a threat to me.  Are you sure the FSB doesn't pay your bills?

You are mistaken, it's just a mere statement of facts without any emotional coloring from my part.
My bills are paid from RF budget since recently.

[Muzh]

http://www.regnum.ru/news/polit/1782201.htm

A new law by the new government which prohibits moving in or out of Crimea without special permission. 3 to 9 years prison. In the same law "Any cooperation with Russia or Russian representatives - 10 to 15 years prison."


My understanding it makes thousands of Ukrainians who are now living or working in Russia or having business with Russia criminals?

Nope. It makes them Russians.

[Muzh]

You for example dismissed the facts that maydan activists were paid because no one could present you with the news link.

Ranetka, here is a little bit that I hope will explain better why so many Ukrainians these days are so anti-Russian and hopefully open your eyes on 'paid maidan activists' tale.

http://24tv.ua/home/showSingleNews.do?katuvannya_v_zakoni_siloviki_vikradayut_i_znushhayutsya_nad_lyudmi&objectId=402179

http://24tv.ua/home/showSingleNews.do?ukrayina_v_krovi_yuristi_zbirayut_dokazi_nasilstva_u_chornu_knigu&objectId=405894

 
Talking about paid activists in Maidan, check out these hired staff.
 
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/03/30/exclusive-photographs-expose-russian-trained-killers-in-kiev.html

[Muzh]

I don't understand for whom this law then as very few here will keep their Ukrainian citizenship, it will be extremely uncomfortable for them to remain in Crimea because they won't have any rights here.

Is that ethnic cleansing?

[Muzh]

The one bottom line that remains is that RUssia has NOT invaded the greater part of Ukraine....I still don't believe they ever intended to. Why bother to? Who wants the hassle? They got what they wanted through those ports.  
Fathertime!

Yep.

Russia begins to understand costs of Putin’s Crimean adventure

[Muzh]

Maybe they should. But in fact new authorities even were not willing to take back those Ukrainains who decided to leave Crimea and made them wait for long hours on the border between Crimea and mainland where they were cold and hungry waiting until their motherland will remember about them and let them come back(

Sure. Let's see the link please.

[Muzh]

FP, I still believe Putin is going to invade.  I, along with the majority of Ukrainians. 

If not he has polarized a neighbor and made them so pro-west that they will turn totally away from Russia.  And all for a Crimean economy that he will have to support.  A pariah supporting a pariah.  It doesn't make any sense.  It will be five years before they get that bridge built from Russia to Crimea.  By that time, Crimea will be in open revolt again because of how bad their lives have become.  Lucky they have the Russian troops on station.

Jone, IMHO Putin thought that Ukraine, or at least eastern Ukraine would welcome Russia with open arms and he got nothing.
 
Now, he has a major blow to his budget (Crimea) and nothing else to show for. Pretty (damn) soon the average Russian is going to feel the pinch as to why he had to buy the cow when he was getting the milk for free.
 
So, the only way he can save face (and show his pecs again so the young maidens get really wet) is to be a man and invade Ukraine and save them from the Ukrainian scum, er..., brothers.
 
But the maidens should not dispair, It's a work (Thugs) in progress.
 
Soccer Hooligans Prep Ukraine for Putin

[Muzh]

If it will really make you feel better, then yes, Canada is an aggressor nation; a marginal one at best.

FP: ANSWER THE QUESTION
 
CM: YOU WANT THE TRUTH?
 
FP: YES, I'M ENTITLED TO THE TRUTH
 
CM: YOU CAN"T HANDLE THE TRUTH. YES, CANADA WAS AN AGGRESSOR NATION.

[Gator]

The Russian speaking areas of Ukraine no longer hold the majority with the absence of Crimea.  So Ukraine will elect a pro-Western government.  As soon as that becomes apparent, the tanks will roll.

I thought the same earlier.  Now I wonder. 

Ukraine will presumably vote to try and become like the West, yet  to do so will require reduction of corruption (is such possible) and implementation of austerity programs (with much hardships on the common citizen such as inflation).  This is not a short term task.   How many Ukrainians will be content to go through years and years of such, especially if life improves  in Crimea over the short term?

[Muzh]

There is no one on this forum who has insights into your mind.   

As for Russian intentions, from a global perspective, history is against Putin and the moves he has made unless he occupies more of Ukraine.  There is no speculation on what Putin is thinking.

Keyword here is HISTORY.
 
Since people are NOT mind readers, in order to understand one's "opponent" you have to study his moves. Sometimes previous examples from other people are eeriely similar.
 
That is the only thing that "think tanks" have in order to prepare leaders for strategic countermoves.
 
What we do here is guess what someone might do based on our own perspectives and political outlook.
 
IOW, that was a strawman Ranetka. And your little friend tagged along since she had nothing else to add.

[Muzh]

Status quo as was before, but without Crimea.

UA is dependent on transit revenue and low energy prices.  Although the west is capable of helping, 'restructuring' UA is not possible, thus any help will be conditional and limited.

RU will then become again the favored 'partner' in trade for political influence... after all RU has energy and 'knows' the 'UA system' best.

I get the feeling that the west is looking at UA as a 'rats nest' of problems and that throwing money in that mouse hole won't help at all.. in fact it will only benefit RU.

I'm not so sure about that BC.
 

 Crimea causes Russia investment crisis

[Muzh]

So take this one step further:  Russia now begins to float ideas of a "Joint Ownership" of Crimea.  While that may be novel, it is not based in reality.  Ukraine still sees Crimea as part of Ukraine.  Stolen from Ukraine.  And Russia's actions have pushed Ukraine directly into the arms of the European Union.  (Frankly, I think Ukraine aligning with any faction is incorrect.  For those who watched the movie, Divergent, Ukraine should be 'Factionless'.)

Oh, I wholeheartedly disagree on two separate dissenting votes.
 
The MAIN reason Ukraine is the pickle it finds itself right now is BECAUSE it was "Factionless" all these years. More of wishy-washy while it was raped by her "leaders."
 
Now, hundreds were killed and who knows many more might perish and for what, stay the course?
 
No thanks.

[Muzh]

Can't agree more.

Why?
 
Can you explain why?

[BillyB]

So far I'm reading the Chocolate king is the leading candidate for presidency. Anybody heard different, especially those coming out of eastern Ukraine? Photo of him and his family in link below.


http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26822741

[Muzh]

Well I think the pivotal here are two points:
1. Do you accept the right of Autonomous republic to self determination without agreement of central government (Kosovo, anyone?)

I'll see your Kosovo and raise you Chechnya and the rest of the Caucasus.
 
Think how nice it would be for Moscow having the Great Islamic Republic of Jihadist against Moscow just around the corner. Who knows, maybe the Tatar republic and assorted Islamic enclaves within Russia?
 
I think I know the answer.
 

2. And another is if the referendum was indeed the expression of will of the people (I think there is a general agreement that majority of Crimeans indeed wanted to be part of Russia, at least that's what BBC's reporting)

Then why did more than 50% voted for Ukrainian independence and be part of Ukraine back in the 1990s?

[Muzh]

Nothing could influence people's opinion in Crimea, because it was firmly formed long ago before the events.

You say that as if you are so full of pride thinking that way.
 
Wow.

[Muzh]

Their next president will become Poroshenko.  [size=78%]No comments.[/size]

Don't despair. There's a possibility Yankonvict may stage a comeback. 

[Muzh]

Both the UK and the US should be ashamed!  The Budapest memorandum was signed by both parties and guaranteed Ukraine (including Crimea), protection of their sovereignty and borders when they gave up nuclear weapons.  The agreement had no expiration date.   Both should have immediately offered Ukraine military assistance (even if it were only weapons to defend themselves).
 
(blah, blah, blah)

My apologies for walking around with a safety pin. Now, where's that balloon?
 
That is NOT what the Budapest Memorandum states. It simply says that the USA, Great Britain, and Russia, (and France and China thereafter) PROMISED Ukraine not to take advantage of their lack of nuclear armamnet to infringe on their borders nor sovereignty. PERIOD
 
Nothing about bopping anyone over their heads if the broke their promises. Like a Treaty of Versailles, pick any of them.
 
Basically, what Putin did was to show the world that treaties are just like toilet paper.

[Muzh]

Excellent points.  It would appear Russia can get critical supplies to the peninsula.  If the two nations can kiss and makeup then Ukraine can possibly profit by supplying utilities to the region...that way both countries can win.
Fathertime!

 
LMFAO
 
That would be like asking you and LT to suck face and grope each other.

[Muzh]

Here is the link to some interesting facts about Ukrainian production of Russian military weapons and parts.
Hopefully the Kiev government will immediately quit supplying Russia these parts, move the engineering to a safe place, and negotiate with the West to manufacture goods to make up the losses of income.

http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-ukraine-military-equipment/25312911.html

Hopefully sounds kind of urgent, doesn't it?

[Muzh]

Chocolate king Petro Poroshenko backed by world heavyweight boxer Vitali Klitschko and Yulia Tymoshenko. Yulia would be a mistake since she couldn't get the job done before. Both candidates are pro West and if they listen to advice, they may be able to have some Western style economic success in Ukraine.

Goldilocks is pro-herself and only herself. Not only it would be a mistake electing her, it would be the demise of Ukraine as a country. PERIOD.

I have not heard any names of pro Russian candidates. Although dialogue has increased between Obama and Putin, Putin's troops still are on the move and Russian troops in Georgia has been on the move too. With increased dialogue, Putin has increased covert operations in eastern Ukraine and may try a "Crimea" before the May 25 election. This tells me Putin may have a difficult time finding a pro Russian candidate that can win it all so he'll have to achieve his goals with baby steps.

Ever heard of Sergei Tigipko? Actually, any Party of Regions candidate will do.

[Muzh]

There was more than clear indication of this, as Ukraine wanted to enter NATO and have its base on the Ukrainian territtory.

Okay, show me a link where this was going to happen. I don't care if the link comes directly from the Kremlin. Just show me there were plans for a base in Ukraine. Then I will tell you that was going to be impossible for the next 28 years.
 
But you first show me the link.

[Faux Pas]

If it will really make you feel better, then yes, Canada is an aggressor nation; a marginal one at best.

I already knew the answer Canadaman. I just wanted to make sure you knew. A marginal aggressor nation? That's akin to being "a little bit pregnant"