The Russian Invasion of Ukraine-The Real Nazis

[BillyB]

This point about the NATO moving into Russia's backyard is a valid point and it appears the USA broke that promise long ago....That point may get downplayed here, but  I believe it is a relevant factor in why things are the way they are now....

Some people will say it wasn't a binding agreement. Lots of promises get broke on both sides including those with binding agreements. One broken promise by the US didn't lead to this current situation. Russia always had a contingency plan if Ukraine ever left their sphere of influence. In the past when Ukraine comes close to electing a pro Western President, the candidates get poisoned or imprisoned. Putin always has his "gas" disputes with when a pro Western President is in power. This is the 3rd time Putin threatened to turn off the gas in the last 8 years.


Putin claims his problem is with NATO approaching his doorstep but it seems he wants to conquer Ukraine and possibly Moldova. In Putin's Russia, he brings his doorstep to NATO.


People have the right to hire any security company to protect their homes. Thieves shouldn't complain. Nations have the same right. Russia shouldn't complain. If Russia wants to get into the business of security, they should earn a reputation of being trustworthy and reliable. Ukraine once trusted Russia for it's security. Didn't work out too well.

[AkMike]

The Ukrainian army is preparing to dislodge Kremlin-backed separatists from Donetsk and Luhansk, the provincial capitals of two oblasts where 15 percent of Ukraine's population lives. The Interior Ministry's announcement that Kyiv will reassert its authority comes after the recapture by government forces of four cities across the region in recent days.

At a briefing on July 7, advisor to Ukraine’s interior minister Anton Gerashchenko outlined further plans for the government’s anti-terrorist operation and said normal life was returning to liberated Sloviansk, with all necessary services in the city set to resume in due course.

“Whoever remembers Grozny after its liberation by the Russian army, it was nothing more than a desert. Sloviansk, as you can see, is complete and has not been bombed. The people met our soldiers with open arms, crying from happiness,” a visibly confident Gerashchenko said, gesturing to a video showing an aerial view of the city following its recapture.

A video taken from a Ukrainian army helicopter showing Sloviansk after its liberation from rebel control.

According to Gerashchenko, Sloviansk’s railway station and post office will begin operating within 24 hours while supermarkets were being stocked up and food brought in for local inhabitants. Work is also being done to reconnect the water system as soon as possible, he added.

Pictures have been emerging in recent days of supplies arriving in Sloviansk, with volunteers distributing food and medical aid to locals standing in long lines behind the delivery trucks.

All citizens in the town are meanwhile being questioned on their involvement and possible complicity with the actions of rebel forces, Gerashchenko said.

“We turn to those living in surrounding towns and villages to inform us of those they know are taking part in terrorist activities. We will not let one person with blood on their hands go free,” he said.

Gerashchenko said the regional capitals of Donetsk and Luhansk had been cordoned off and all those wanting to leave the cities were being checked for weapons. Peaceful citizens not carrying arms were being allowed to exit freely, he added.

When asked by the Kyiv Post about the inhabitants’ attitude towards advancing army forces, he said not more than 25% of the local population supports the separatists, and assigned responsibility for that minority’s views to “total” Russian propaganda.

“We are working on turning Russian channels off and Ukrainian channels back on across the region. The people’s mood is shifting – they have seen rebels robbing businessmen and witnessed widespread looting by their fighters,” he said, adding that 270 cars have been stolen from showrooms in Donetsk.

The army has reclaimed control of several border crossings, Gerashchenko added, with only a few left to take back.

“The border is under fire-cover, meaning if any kind of military equipment enters from the Russian side our scouts will alert us and we will destroy it from the air or using artillery fire. I think in the next few days this problem will be solved,” he said.


A map from July 6 showing recent gains made by Ukrainian army forces.

Gerashchenko’s statement comes in the wake of a string of Ukrainian army victories, which has raised morale among the troops and brought a tone of optimism to Ukrainian media coverage. The most symbolic victory in Ukraine's military offensive was the recapture of the rebel stronghold of Sloviansk, which returned to government control on July 5.

Since then Ukrainian forces have reportedly taken three more cities – Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk and Artemivsk – and images have surfaced online of the Ukrainian flag being hosted above the cities’ administration buildings.

Despite their recent losses, the rebels still hold the two regional capitals, where they have regrouped following a series of defeats elsewhere. Thousands have reportedly fled in recent days and weeks from Donetsk, a city with an official population of 1 million people, fearing its transformation into the next flashpoint in the three month-long military conflict. Many local businesses have also closed.

Meanwhile, rebel forces continue to attack government positions. On July 7 separatists blew up three bridges overlooking roads leading into Donetsk, in an apparent attempt to obstruct the army's access to the regional capital.

On the same day nine Ukrainian border guards were killed and 112 injured after a rebel attack, the deputy head of the State Border Service said at a press conference in Kyiv. One person has reportedly been flown to Israel for specialist treatment.


A column of separatist fighters marching into Donetsk following their retreat from former stronghold Sloviansk.

A rally in support of the rebels in central Donetsk on July 6 drew a crowd of around 1,000 people, according to witnesses, a comparatively small proportion of the regional capital’s inhabitants.

"We will begin a real partisan war around the whole perimeter of Donetsk,” Pavel Gubarev, leader of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, told the crowd. “We will drown these wretches in blood.” Gubarev however warned that without Russian aid rebel forces are unlikely to succeed.

Speaking on Ukrainian TV, Ukraine’s richest man and Donetsk native Rinat Akhmetov called for the government to exercise restraint in its urban offensive against rebel forces. “Donetsk must not be bombed. Donbas must not be bombed,” he said in an interview with the “Ukraina” TV channel on July 6.

Kyiv Post staff writer Matthew Luxmoore can be reached at mjluxmoore@gmail.com and on Twitter at @mjluxmoore.

http://www.kyivpost.com/conten...ers-pace-354990.html

[Shadow]

[jone]

Shadow,

I watched your video.  Horrible.  That is what happens in war.  People get killed.  I am terribly sorry for their losses and I grieve for their families.

I would like an honest answer from you.  Do you really believe that the majority of people in the Donbass region want separation from Ukraine and affiliation with Russia?  If so, on what do you base your premise?

When I first went to Eastern Ukraine, I was confused by most of the signs being in Ukrainian and most of the people speaking Russian.  Many of the older people there did not speak Ukrainian.  So I asked:  Taxi drivers, hotel employees, even when I donated my time for civic purposes, I asked those people as well.  My Russian is not very strong, but almost to a person they all said that they were Ukrainian first.  (I have never been to Donbass, only to Kharkov.  But I am told that the response there is similar.)

I still believe that the entire conflict in Eastern Ukraine is contrived.  What did it for me is when the invasion of Kharkov happened and, instead of taking the Mayor's offices, they didn't know the right building and took the Opera House instead.  It told me, right then and there, that such an operation was not being done by local citizens, but by outsiders brought in to agitate.  If the insurgents had even one local citizen with them, they would have known the difference.  Hell, even I know it, having seen both buildings myself. 

All surveys that I have seen shows me that the number of local citizens who would rather be associated with Russia is probably between 25 and 30 percent.  That means that a minority in a region is trying to overrun the majority, against the wishes of the country as a whole.

The separatists consistently claim that the reason for disassociation is that Kyiv is run by Nazis (who control the government).  You can see the repeated imagery in the above video.  The far right parties received less than five percent of the vote in the Presidential Election.   I believe that this one fact, that Ukraine elected someone who is seen as moderate and that the government shows stability, demonstrated to Russia that Ukraine is not a plumb ripe for the picking.

A bit of perspective:  In Netherlands, the Freedom Party, ultra, far right (in my book) had an 11 percent favorable rating in 2011.  Now imagine you have an agitating force with big dollars and a military to back it up begin stoking that minority.  And further, because your country is next door to the aggressor, the aggressor floods the airwaves with news that to be Dutch you are a whore or a whore son.  (Don't tell me that this hasn't happened in Ukraine.  Anyone with a VK account can read it for themselves, as I have.)   Then, in your neighborhood, people you knew and trusted begin coming out and spitting on your national flag and coming together to make irrational statements about your government. 

We can't imagine what these people are going through.  Hopefully we will never have to. 

My own personal belief is that the whole affair is going to backfire.  The Ukrainians already hate Putin.  The separatists will, ultimately, consider Putin a traitor because he failed to back them up.  The Russians, by a great majority, consider the Ukrainians to be sub-standard.   Even though they are neighbors, there will be no cozy future for these two countries. 

So getting back to my original question, Shadow:  Do you believe that the majority of people in Donbass really want separation from Ukraine?    Because, that ultimately, would be the basis for revolution.   

I do believe that the majority of the country wanted a closer affiliation with the West.  No matter what other people on the forum may say, I believe it to be true.  There was a visceral movement in that direction, regardless of prodding by the United States or the EU.  It was there when I lived in Mykolaiv last summer.   Too many Ukrainians have seen how successful other Eastern European countries can be when embracing Western standards.   When Yanu. spurned the EU affiliation, he went directly against the desires of his people.  Even as Maidan was just beginning, I stated on this forum that I thought it would end in the removal of the government.

Without Russia's military intervention, the script is already written for the end game.  There will be no 'Novorossiya'.  And prospects for an overt invasion (as opposed to the clandestine invasion we've been watching) diminish every day that the Ukrainian forces take more ground back from the separatists.

The Kyiv Post has a section in it called 'The Russian War'.  That is what the Ukrainian people are now calling this conflict.  Simply put, they believe that Russia is trying to punish the country for turning towards the West.  It is a simple conclusion, really.   If you get past the subterfuge and all of the propaganda (on both sides) you can see clearly.  Occam's razor holds it to be true.

[Shadow]

Shadow,

I watched your video.  Horrible.  That is what happens in war.  People get killed.  I am terribly sorry for their losses and I grieve for their families.

I would like an honest answer from you.  Do you really believe that the majority of people in the Donbass region want separation from Ukraine and affiliation with Russia?  If so, on what do you base your premise?

I will try to answer your question as truthfully as I have information.
When Yanukovich was ousted, the people in the area mostly had zero interest in separating from Ukraine and aligning with Russia, or beoming Russian. Their main concern was that they were no longer represented in the government of their country, and this was their ground for protests.
These protests took form in seizing government buildings as wel as chasing off the olicharch friends of the new government that were appointed as new mayors or governors.

What followed was violence that exceeded the violence Yanukovich used.
This meant that the people felt their government turned against them, especially because the use of Russian as official language was removed, and some (at the time minor) government parties were voicing that all Russian speaking Ukrainians should be removed from Ukraine.
 On top of that came the propaganda, from which parts have reached the Western world through RT, other even more wild stories were only spread locally.

As people felt betrayed by their government, they turned to help from the country that speaks their language: Russia. The events in Crimea gave them (false) hope to also be allowed to split off and join Russia.
Once the EU elections started campaigning (short before the elections in Ukraine) almost everything fell silent.
The people in Donbass area were attacked every now and then, but they did not make any steps towards progress or controlling terrain.  As soon as the EU election was over, the Ukrainian election came in sight.

The Donbass area made the mistake of being passive in their separatism. The held ground in cities, but not more than that. The elections themselves were not held in the cities of Donetsk, Lugansk or Slaviansk. But people were allowed to go voting, which by itself was surprising.

After the elections, the new president decided to take his momentum and launch an offensive. The separatists have little organization, and due to the longevity are running out of money as well as power.
Right now most of them feel betrayed by both their own government and Russia. To make Novorossiya independent will need a lot of battles, and would make the area even more poor as it is today. People are more or less in a state as during the Holodomor where they con trust nobody and have the choice between dying or a fate that might be worse.

I hope this more or less answers your question.

As for my part, due to being part of some large groups on social networks, I have direct contact with many people in Russia and all parts of Ukraine. Mostly I have been fighting propaganda stories, and that includes pro-Russian propaganda. Some people there believe I am a USA puppet.
Also I have been following developments very closely, usually I got the news on any major story long before any media reported it. But as a true Shadow I am mainly observing and trying to find a way forward for all of Ukraine.

My first warning to the separatists was that Russia got what they wanted with Crimea, and the best they could hope for was some autonomy. Unfortunately they did not believe me.

[jone]

Excellent answer, and I thank you.  Where do you think the majority lies?

[Boethius]

I will try to answer your question as truthfully as I have information.
When Yanukovich was ousted, the people in the area mostly had zero interest in separating from Ukraine and aligning with Russia, or beoming Russian. Their main concern was that they were no longer represented in the government of their country, and this was their ground for protests.

No, there were no protests on Yanukovych's ouster.  In fact, in a poll the next month, 55% of residents in the region stated they intended to vote in the presidential election.

These protests took form in seizing government buildings as wel as chasing off the olicharch friends of the new government that were appointed as new mayors or governors.

Many weren't happy with the Kyiv appointments, but the seizing of buildings did not occur until later.

What followed was violence that exceeded the violence Yanukovich used.

That is not accurate.

This meant that the people felt their government turned against them, especially because the use of Russian as official language was removed, and some (at the time minor) government parties were voicing that all Russian speaking Ukrainians should be removed from Ukraine.

That is not accurate.  The Rada proposed repealing Russian as a regional language.  Russian never had official language status in Ukraine.  The bill proposed by the Rada was vetoed by the acting president.  But that is what inflamed tensions in the region. 

As people felt betrayed by their government, they turned to help from the country that speaks their language: Russia. The events in Crimea gave them (false) hope to also be allowed to split off and join Russia.
Once the EU elections started campaigning (short before the elections in Ukraine) almost everything fell silent.

No, there is evidence that operatives were in the region very early, as they were in other regions, such as Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk.  It was not on the request of locals.  The Vostok Battalion did not appear in Ukraine on the request of Ukrainians.  Further, at its height, the separatists had the support of only half the population in Donetsk, less in Luhansk.

The people in Donbass area were attacked every now and then, but they did not make any steps towards progress or controlling terrain.  As soon as the EU election was over, the Ukrainian election came in sight.

No, they were not.  That is why the terrorists became so entrenched.  The acting president did not send troops to fight, although troops were in the region.  In Slovyansk, for example, the locals fed Ukrainian troops.

The Donbass area made the mistake of being passive in their separatism. The held ground in cities, but not more than that. The elections themselves were not held in the cities of Donetsk, Lugansk or Slaviansk. But people were allowed to go voting, which by itself was surprising.

No, that is inaccurate.  In Donetsk, for example, most voting was prohibited, and terrorists destroyed ballots and voting stations.

After the elections, the new president decided to take his momentum and launch an offensive. The separatists have little organization, and due to the longevity are running out of money as well as power.

He waited quite some time to take the offensive, and only after 29 troops were killed and 69 wounded during a unilateral ceasefire.

Right now most of them feel betrayed by both their own government and Russia. To make Novorossiya independent will need a lot of battles, and would make the area even more poor as it is today. People are more or less in a state as during the Holodomor where they con trust nobody and have the choice between dying or a fate that might be worse.

The majority of the populace in the area (which is relatively small, it was never more than a triangle of 200 km on each side) do not feel betrayed.  Some support the terrorists, but most do not.

[Gylden]

Also an event which you can say led to "false hope" is the semblance of Russian military on the Ukrainian border.

[GQBlues]

Kiev didn't do this. The US did...

It's the same strategy used in Serbia, in Iraq, in Africa et al...bomb the civilian population silly to curb your enemy from fighting. Why do you think we sent John Brennar there for?

[Shadow]

@Boethius:IF you believe from Canada to know better as the people involved so be it. I will just tell that I disagree, and that probably the information one of us has is false.
As I wrote my piece from memory and not by checking all facts, I may be inaccurate about some time points. But not about the statements of feelings from the people, as there is a direct line.

[jone]

Shadow,

I have not communicated much with my friends in Eastern Ukraine since the events started.  (Events in my personal life have moved me away from Ukraine and participation on this Board.)  You present an honest, thinking man's view of a separatist.  It is valuable to the forum.    For the most part, once the buildings were seized in the Eastern areas, the occupants were mostly from the population.   But the original agitators who came in from Russia to organize - and in many cases - pay for participation - were from Russia.  Anyone who followed the mercenary types from Crimea saw the immediate migration to the Eastern areas.

People believe what they want to believe.  The people you may have talked to might not think that Russia or the Russian military and GRU played an important part in instigating and activating the insurrection, but there really is no doubt in even a casual observer's mind that they were and are there.

You never did directly answer my question, which was the purpose of the original post.  In your opinion (I won't hold you to it) what percentage of the people in Donbass do you feel are really behind the separatists?

[Patagonie]

No, there were no protests on Yanukovych's ouster.  In fact, in a poll the next month, 55% of residents in the region stated they intended to vote in the presidential election.


Many weren't happy with the Kyiv appointments, but the seizing of buildings did not occur until later.


That is not accurate.


That is not accurate.  The Rada proposed repealing Russian as a regional language.  Russian never had official language status in Ukraine.  The bill proposed by the Rada was vetoed by the acting president.  But that is what inflamed tensions in the region. 



No, there is evidence that operatives were in the region very early, as they were in other regions, such as Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk.  It was not on the request of locals.  The Vostok Battalion did not appear in Ukraine on the request of Ukrainians.  Further, at its height, the separatists had the support of only half the population in Donetsk, less in Luhansk.


No, they were not.  That is why the terrorists became so entrenched.  The acting president did not send troops to fight, although troops were in the region.  In Slovyansk, for example, the locals fed Ukrainian troops.


No, that is inaccurate.  In Donetsk, for example, most voting was prohibited, and terrorists destroyed ballots and voting stations.


He waited quite some time to take the offensive, and only after 29 troops were killed and 69 wounded during a unilateral ceasefire.



The majority of the populace in the area (which is relatively small, it was never more than a triangle of 200 km on each side) do not feel betrayed.  Some support the terrorists, but most do not.

+1
I confirm all these informations.
Except some minors mistakes on the beginning (wanting to abort russian language and compel ukrainian) the ukrainians have done not so bad for the moment.
The fog has gone away now and the origin of the separatist mouvement cannot be clearest : a bunch of elite and intelligence russian forces, mercenaries and local paid beween 500 $ and 1500$ depending per month depending their rank.
Whan you have removed all these idiots from  the few cities where they have compelled an insurrection, you will see how fast any willing of being part of Russia will vanish.
The only problem are the civilian casualities and the russian propaganda (part of the battle plan) because we know how these casualites can push people in extreme actions.

[Boethius]

Shadow, most of what I posted is a matter of public record. 

Yanukovych's government eventually sent the Berkut in to beat protesters, and to shoot them.  I do not deny Praviy Sekhtor supporters were in the East, but they weren't sent there by the Ukrainian government.

The feelings of those you know are not supported by polls taken up to the end of March (thereafter, the situation on the ground was too unstable to conduct polls).    They are anecdotal, and will depend on the circles you travel in.  My husband knows people in both Lugansk and Donetsk who have different views.  Now, granted, polls may be inaccurate,  however, there has never been majority support for Russia, nor a turning to Russia. 

My statement on the language laws is accurate.  Russian was recognized in that region, and nationally, as a regional language.  It did not have official language status in Ukraine, although the regional status was a path to eventual official status.  But yes, I agree, the attempt to remove the regional language status is what provoked the crisis.

Finally, bear in mind that the cities in the Dontesk and Luhansk oblasts are predominantly Russian speaking, but the regions surrounding those cities are not always.  It is more of a mixture of Russian and Ukrainian (surzhik), and many in those surrounding regions view themselves as Ukrainian, not Russian.

[JohnDearGreen]

The only problem are the civilian casualities and the russian propaganda (part of the battle plan) because we know how these casualites can push people in extreme actions.

Tym's buddies are finding more ways to profit...
http://slavyangrad.wordpress.com/2014/07/06/hacked-facebook-correspondence-indicates-a-burgeoning-trade-in-organs-of-ukrainian-soldiers/comment-page-1/
http://www.unian.net/politics/936687-pereplyunut-gebbelsa-rossiyskiy-kanal-snyal-syujet-o-tom-kak-vlasenko-torguet-organami-cherez-facebook.html

[Boethius]

This is what many Russians believe about Ukraine and Ukrainians.  This is also why so many Ukrainians wish to turn West, rather than East -

The Izborsky Club, a group of intellectuals and writers put together by Aleksandr Prokhanov to promote Russian nationalist and traditionalist views, clearly has had a major influence on Vladimir Putin’s thinking and policies, including his annexation of Crimea and support for the idea of “a Russian world.”

But now that Prokhanov and his even more notorious club member Aleksandr Dugin have complained to the “Wall Street Journal” about Putin’s current approach to Ukraine and about their loss of status and access, some may conclude that the Izborsky Club is becoming passé (online.wsj.com/articles/russian-nationalists-feel-let-down-by-kremlin-again-1404510139).


That Prokhanov, Dugin and their colleagues may have lost on this issue, however, should not obscure the influence they have had and are likely to continue to have on the way in which Putin and his entourage conceive the world and hence on the policies that he and they are likely to pursue.


Indeed, it may be the case that groups like the Izborsky Club in Russia, just like some think tanks in the West, are less important for their impact on specific policies, even policies as critical as Moscow’s approach to Ukraine has been than they are for that kind of broader but less specifically traceable influence they do exert.


That is certainly the implication of what Vitaly Averyanov, the director of the Moscow Institute of Dynamic Conservatism and a co-founder of the Izborsky Club, told a “Svobodnaya pressa” interviewer at the end of last week when asked about the influence of group (dynacon.ru/content/articles/3499/). .  .

Asked about the widely-rumored links between the Izborsky Club and the actions of pro-Russian groups in eastern Ukraine, Averyanov said that “of course the Izborsky Club is not the author of the scenario of the rising in the Donbas. But a connection exists, a deep connection,” and Igor Strelkov is “a man of our direction.”

With regard to Ukraine, he said that “Ukraine is not a state: it is a buffer formation.” It is the product of the weakening of the Russian nation.  And it is not a separate nation either – although he said one can create the simulacrum of a nation. “Give me the money and staff, and after 15 years, I will form a nation of Siberians which I can control,” Averyanov added.

The division of Ukraine is not an ethnic one but “a mental or civilizational one,” the specific “front” of the clash of civilizations in which the West is seeking to extend its sway over Russia. If the West wins in Ukraine, he argued, there is “a great probability” that it will extend this clash into Russia itself.

http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/07/08/russian-nationalist-group-connected-to-strelkov-says-ukraine-is-not-a-state/

[Muzh]

@Boethius:IF you believe from Canada to know better as the people involved so be it. I will just tell that I disagree, and that probably the information one of us has is false.
As I wrote my piece from memory and not by checking all facts, I may be inaccurate about some time points. But not about the statements of feelings from the people, as there is a direct line.

Dude, if you are interested PM me and I'll give you the email of a Ukrainian living in Kharkiv who actually spent time in the Donbass region as an activist. At first she feared that Donetsk was lost to the Russians. Not anymore. She was one of many digging a trench to hold the Russian army advance.


She will gladly tell you you are full of kakashka.


I'm guessing that you are ultra-left in Netherlands. Nothing wrong with that in my book. 

[jone]

As you all may surmise by now, my inquiries were not to discredit Shadow, who contributes with a steady hand over many topics, but to bring to the forefront the issue that only a minority segment of the population in Donbass and Lugansk are in favor of separation.  I would be further willing to surmise that the number of supporters of separation are dwindling as the heavyweights like Akhmetov have called for an end to the separatism. 

The severely reduced numbers present at the pro-separatist rally held this weekend in Donetsk are reflective of the new realities.  Putin is not coming to the rescue and those who have acted like thugs or terrorists over the past three months will face some type of justice. 

While Russia may have gained popular support at home for its actions in Ukraine, it is a pyrrhic victory as such and the cost in diminished esteem in the Western world coupled with the absolute hatred felt by the great majority of Ukrainians will be felt by Putin's administration until he is out of office.  It is a generational thing. 

In a twisted fashion, I suppose, the Russian populace can take comfort in their new territory of Crimea and that Russia is once again a name to be feared in Eastern Europe.  But I can assure you, even allies like Lukashenko are going through their security structures to see how far the FSB has penetrated.  In short, not one country expects better treatment from Russia than Russia has given to Ukraine.  That is Russia's new reality.

Once Poroshenko was elected and took office, it was difficult to maintain that the Nazis were running Kyiv.  Even the most obstinate separatists remember that Poroshenko was a member of Yanukovych's cabinet.

Mendy did a cute thing in his journal at the start of the Eastern Region rebellion.  He showed how happy people were, celebrating being Ukrainian in Donetsk only a year ago at one of the holidays.  Then he compared that to the strife shown in the Eastern Region during the height of the conflict.  It was a stark contrast of happiness versus despair.   

While Putin temporarily maintains artificial popularity at home, Russia loses big time in the long term.   My friends all know my love of Eastern Europe and, especially Russia.  They cannot understand why Putin has chosen this course.  It was said, early on, that there is no end where he comes out the ultimate winner.  I have to agree with that analysis.

[Boethius]

[BillyB]

Putin is not coming to the rescue and those who have acted like thugs or terrorists over the past three months will face some type of justice. 

Ukrainian rebels will face justice. Many of the Russian militia who crossed the border for money and duty to Russia will enter graves. By abandoning them, Putin won't have to pay them.

They cannot understand why Putin has chosen this course.

I don't understand why Putin hasn't done more. Opportunities like this don't come along often. Ukraine in a moment of weakness is ripe for the taking. Putin has showed his colors and then stop short? His neighbors are scared and motivated to get stronger. Purchases of American military equipment have gone up and American troops have been invited into more countries.

[fathertime]

I don't understand why Putin hasn't done more. Opportunities like this don't come along often. Ukraine in a moment of weakness is ripe for the taking. Putin has showed his colors and then stop short? His neighbors are scared and motivated to get stronger. Purchases of American military equipment have gone up and American troops have been invited into more countries.

Hey Billy, I think most everybody here misjudged what Putin was doing.  I NEVER thought he was going to get mired in a quagmire of taking Ukraine...it would have been a bloody insurgency that he could never be done with....He got the freebie of Crimea...a very strategic piece....that was all he needed FOR NOW....There will be costs to his nations, but their also could be global gains.. obviously he has calculated or miscalculated that the benefits outweigh the costs....To this point, the costs are very low.   


Fathertime!   

[Shadow]

Shadow,

I have not communicated much with my friends in Eastern Ukraine since the events started.  (Events in my personal life have moved me away from Ukraine and participation on this Board.)  You present an honest, thinking man's view of a separatist.  It is valuable to the forum.    For the most part, once the buildings were seized in the Eastern areas, the occupants were mostly from the population.   But the original agitators who came in from Russia to organize - and in many cases - pay for participation - were from Russia.  Anyone who followed the mercenary types from Crimea saw the immediate migration to the Eastern areas.

People believe what they want to believe.  The people you may have talked to might not think that Russia or the Russian military and GRU played an important part in instigating and activating the insurrection, but there really is no doubt in even a casual observer's mind that they were and are there.

You never did directly answer my question, which was the purpose of the original post.  In your opinion (I won't hold you to it) what percentage of the people in Donbass do you feel are really behind the separatists?

As far as  can tell around 70% is against the current government. That however does not mean they wish to join Russia, and within that 70% there will be mixed feelings with regard to the separatists.
In general you might expect a number of 40% who are fully engaged to fight for separation, 30% who just want better representation in the governmen.

As for the casual observer, they are mostly influenced by media. When I say that there is no doubt the US and EU played an important part in stopping the insurrection the same casual observer may deny this. Still I am sure that the influence of Russia is not much higher as that of the EU/US, and that if Russia would have wanted to take over the area it would have happened.

[Shadow]

Shadow, most of what I posted is a matter of public record. 

Yanukovych's government eventually sent the Berkut in to beat protesters, and to shoot them.  I do not deny Praviy Sekhtor supporters were in the East, but they weren't sent there by the Ukrainian government.

I do not deny some Russians were in Crimea, but they were not sent by the Russian government.
Equally valid statement.

The feelings of those you know are not supported by polls taken up to the end of March (thereafter, the situation on the ground was too unstable to conduct polls).    They are anecdotal, and will depend on the circles you travel in.  My husband knows people in both Lugansk and Donetsk who have different views.  Now, granted, polls may be inaccurate,  however, there has never been majority support for Russia, nor a turning to Russia. 

Which polls, where were they held, what was the questioning, who held them.

My statement on the language laws is accurate.  Russian was recognized in that region, and nationally, as a regional language.  It did not have official language status in Ukraine, although the regional status was a path to eventual official status.  But yes, I agree, the attempt to remove the regional language status is what provoked the crisis.

It did not provoke the crisis other in that it was the final drop that made people feel they were no longer represented in the government.

Finally, bear in mind that the cities in the Dontesk and Luhansk oblasts are predominantly Russian speaking, but the regions surrounding those cities are not always.  It is more of a mixture of Russian and Ukrainian (surzhik), and many in those surrounding regions view themselves as Ukrainian, not Russian.

Remember that if you ask the question those in Donetsk and Luhanks cities also view themselves as Ukrainian. They may speak Russian, but that does not mean they feel themselves like Mexicans in the USA.

[Shadow]

Dude, if you are interested PM me and I'll give you the email of a Ukrainian living in Kharkiv who actually spent time in the Donbass region as an activist. At first she feared that Donetsk was lost to the Russians. Not anymore. She was one of many digging a trench to hold the Russian army advance.


She will gladly tell you you are full of kakashka.


I'm guessing that you are ultra-left in Netherlands. Nothing wrong with that in my book. 

Of course those rooting for the government will tell that
And we have been over that before, in the Netherlands I am liberal with slight rightwing tendency.
However even the right-wing extremists in the Netherlands would be seen as left from Obama.

[Shadow]

And do not forget the 100% right wing of the USA.

[jone]

In America we have 48% initially against the current government.  We call them Republicans.  (As Obama goes on, that figure grows increasingly higher.)

Thanks for your take Shadow.  I could see those numbers being true.  Although I think there are some very disillusioned separatists right now.  How do you see the end playing out?

As for the Russians taking over the area, I think it would have evolved into a very bloody conflict, with casualties in the tens of thousands, not the hundreds (approaching 1000) where we are now.