Ukraine-The Future

[lordtiberius]

Is this aid package enough?

[JayH]

Ukraine wins in 2015 - Nebozhenko

 Ukraine will begin in the last quarter of 2015, when the policy finally begin to implement the necessary reforms in the country. This was on UKRLIFE.TV said political analyst Viktor Nebozhenko. "Reforms in Ukraine will begin in early 2015. Ukrainian political elite is doing its best to carry out reforms, although they only need 180-200 days. It is not necessary to put on his knees the whole country. The political elite does not want to start reform, because it neither sees them in their place.
If the population is ready for reform and hopes that after a while it becomes easier to live, the ruling class does not know which side to start changing.
The victory of Ukraine will start in November and December 2015. Prior to this, we are waiting for a big and difficult period of reform. The worst part of the reforms is that our politicians think that their conduct must be to shift the entire burden on the population or the oligarchs.
They did not consider that it is possible to divide everything equally, "- said Nebozhenko. In addition the analyst believes that Ukraine does not necessarily join NATO, and only needs intensive cooperation with countries that are members of the Alliance.

 Watch an interview with Viktor Nebozhenko broadcast UKRLIFE.TV .

[JayH]

What to Expect from Russia, Ukraine in 2015?

My guess is: more of the same. And that’s both the good news and the bad news.

Ukraine will consolidate its democratic institutions, while Vladimir Putin’s Russia will consolidate its fascist regime. Although Ukrainians will complain more than Russians, their country will actually be getting stronger, while the hypercentralized state structure centered on Putin’s cult of the macho personality gets weaker. Democratically ruled peoples whine publicly; dictatorially ruled peoples whine privately. The fact that 80-plus percent of Russians are likely to continue to support Putin won’t mean that 80-plus percent are happy with life in Putin’s crumbling realm.

Economically, both countries will be in for trying times. Ukraine’s GDP will contract, unemployment will rise, and inflation will increase—but for the right reasons, as Kyiv embarks on reforms that, while not quite as radical as most economists would wish, will be radical enough to begin the long and arduous task of transforming Ukraine into a genuine market economy. Russia’s GDP will also contract, unemployment will also rise, and inflation will also increase—but for the wrong reasons, as the ossified Putin regime pays heavily for having not diversified or developed its doomed economy. Energy prices, the ruble, its gold reserves, and foreign and domestic investment will collapse as Russian capital takes flight and pressure from Western sanctions continues. The economies of both the Russian-occupied Donbas enclave and the Crimea will contract even more, making life increasingly unbearable for their inhabitants, who will continue to flee both eastward and westward, thereby pushing both regions closer to literal no-man’s-lands.

" Time is on Ukraine’s side, and decidedly not on Russia’s, because time favors democracy and not fascism."
http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/blog/alexander-j-motyl/what-expect-russia-ukraine-2015

[JayH]

Written mid year 2014-- as valid now as it was then,
One can only marvel at Dr. Motyl's analysis and for not succumbing to the temptation to comment on the phenomenon that has gone viral, "Путін хуйло" (Putin is a dickhead). However, I can't resist. Following Dr. Motyl's analysis, if the Kremlin had shut up and not mentioned this incident, it would have probably have gone unnoticed by the world. But no, Putin's foreign minister, Lavrov, one of the world's pre-eminent liars, had to make a mountain out of a mole hill.

Putin's carefully contrived image took a major blow and Deshchytsia's inadvertent comment , exposed Putin's image to ridicule making him out to be only a comic book hero. The wisdom of a popular Ukrainian proverb becomes apparent. "Що правда-то не гріх!". (Truth is not a sin.)

How Putin Lost Ukraine

Half a year ago, in the fall of 2013, Ukraine was well on the way to becoming an authoritarian vassal state of Russia. Now, thanks to Russia’s neo-fascist dictator, Vladimir Putin, Ukraine is well on the way to becoming a democracy and a full-fledged member of the international community.

How did Putin snatch a humiliating defeat from the jaws of surefire victory? How could he have walked into a strategic trap of his own making? In a word, how did he lose Ukraine?

And make no mistake about it: it was Putin, and no one else, who lost Ukraine. He had it. He could easily have kept it. But now he’ll never have it again. And he has no one to blame but himself.

Putin has never understood Ukraine. For him, as for all too many Russians, it’s a historical mistake: a part of Russia that’s been swayed from the path of righteousness by a few dastardly fascist imperialist cigar-chomping bourgeois nationalists in cahoots with the CIA. If you treat a bona fide country with a bona fide people with a bona fide identity as your dirty backyard, don’t be surprised if you slip in the mud and fall on your face.

Putin’s first major slip was during the 2004 Orange Revolution, when, stupidly, he backed Viktor Yanukovych. That disaster taught Putin nothing, and, nine years later, he made the same mistake during the Euro Revolution. How could a supposedly smart leader back the same loser—not once, but twice? How could that same supposedly smart leader still insist that the loser remains Ukraine’s legitimate president—even after a fair and free election gave a huge mandate to Petro Poroshenko? The sad thing is that, after 15 years in power, Putin still doesn’t “get” Ukraine.

http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/blog/alexander-j-motyl/how-putin-lost-ukraine

[JayH]

Is this aid package enough?

No-- no where near enough.But-- it has to start somewhere and right now Ukraine is faced with so many difficult issues to deal with-- and the Russian intent to try and break Ukraine-one way or another- to prevent it achieving it's aims is just another complication.
The new government wresting with some issues and it causes consternation.
There are a lot of good opinions and advice floating around-- some good brains offering advice !!
Here is another interesting piece-

Does Ukraine’s Reform Plan Measure Up?

The reform plan of Ukraine’s coalition government-in-the-making has received mixed reviews from a team of Ukraine experts affiliated with the policy discussion website VoxUkraine.


According to the analysis:

We assign PASS to 3 sections out of 17, and CONDITIONAL PASS to 6 sections out of 17. We find that the draft does not have a coherent ideology and that many sections advocate Soviet style command economy approach to reforms, while only few sections address the structural causes of the problems in Ukraine.

The good news is that the team rates three of 17 sections as excellent, six as subject to improvement, five as “water” (or boilerplate), and only four as bad. That’s nine of 17 that are at least good enough. And those nine include law enforcement, national security, and energy independence (pass) as well as anticorruption, decentralization, regulation and competition policy, infrastructure and transportation, electoral reform, and ecology (conditional pass).

The bad news is that eight of 17 don’t pass muster, and, worse, these include such key sectors as judicial and financial reform (“water”) and agricultural, constitutional, and economic-growth reform (fail). If you believe that judicial reform underpins all the other reforms, then none of the reforms will take off without a fundamental restructuring of the courts. If, alternatively, you believe that economic growth is the sine qua non of many of the other reforms, then you’re likely to view the bad news as really, really bad.

Unlike the VoxUkraine team, Anders Aslund of the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics believes the entire document is a disaster:

The draft coalition agreement even reminded me of reading Leonid Brezhnev’s speech at the 26th Party Congress of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union in 1981. This is not a reform program but an old-style bureaucratic Soviet document for the preservation of the old system. Such a conservative document will never bring reform. There is no declaration of will or strategy. The document does not even start with a set of goals but with a bureaucratic laundry

The reform plan of Ukraine’s coalition government-in-the-making has received mixed reviews from a team of Ukraine experts affiliated with the policy discussion website VoxUkraine.

http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/blog/alexander-j-motyl/does-ukraine%E2%80%99s-reform-plan-measure

[lordtiberius]

A lot of these reforms demanded by investors and the Ukrainian people don't cost any money.

[lordtiberius]

Anyone want to buy some Ukrainian bonds?
http://24today.net/open/281604

[JayH]

In the middle of the current crisis-- I read this-

Ukraїnska revolyutsіya
today at 8:30 pm
How to avoid new Russian-Ukrainian Stalingrad This is a challenge to all Ukrainian society, every person in every town, in every village, in every point of Ukraine We ask a lot of questions that, at the next jump paradigm radicalization will have little meaning. For example, there are Russian troops in the east of Ukraine Russian troops or not? Soon, the question will not have any value. For a year or two can hold basic training to anyone. Especially with all the "practical training". How do you think what will do the thousands and thousands of armed men, without the meaning of life, with dead friends, with the "correct" financial motivation, with "gumkonvoyami" with "invincible" behind Russia? They will be engaged in what they do and now : organize terror from Kharkiv to Mariupol, capture towns, blow up bridges and other infrastructure ... In the case of the Ukrainian army attempts to restore order power method "militia" will serve as bait for boilers, environment, etc. "Ilovaiskaya" that will suit regular Russian army with the use of all forces and means, including "Iskander", "Pinocchio", "Tornado", "Buki", "Hurricane" and so on. Point and very painful: border crossings, strikes the rear, powerful attacks from the territory of the Russian Federation with a lot of losses in manpower and technology on our side. That after the deaths of hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers in such boilers and traps will increase the internal discontent Ukrainians "unprofessional and betrayal General Staff, "" inaction of the president ", etc. That is, to solve the current problem of the aggressor to the erosion of Ukrainian statehood and final revenge pro-Russian forces as a result of a social explosion from an infinite fatigue, stress of war, hopelessness .. Kremlin put his army in the tens of billions of dollars over many, many years of carefree oil paradise. Therefore, it is obvious that in the near future, Ukraine and close will not be able to resist the Russian military machine to the fullest. Yes, and it is not necessary. Here you need to look for, as they say in Russia, "asymmetrical steps". Attempts to arrange a new Russian-Ukrainian Stalingrad, but with frontal using all possible arsenal - is the path to a nuclear winter. And what can be done? The main thing to realize that this war of attrition, that is, the "war of attrition". There will be important active defense. Powerful, layered, high-tech. Plus special services superprofessionalnyh special operations forces. No "rallies for urgent change of the head of the General Staff" will solve nothing. Is that destabilize the country a little more, bring us closer to the goals of the Kremlin. This war - a challenge to the Ukrainian society, every person, in every town, in every village, in every point of Ukraine. Each and every bribe a serious violation of the law - it is a step to defeat. Nepotism and neprofessinalizm - a step towards defeat. Unwillingness to learn and inability to unite to solve local problems and challenges - this is a step to defeat. Well, reform, reform of the reforms. This will add Ukraine fatigue - tired of Ukraine in the world, from its endless problems and requests for assistance. Here the cultural front. Positive image, good movies and unique music, our writers and artists can do a lot more than all the diplomats together. This is an extremely important front. Plus, one way or another, we are hostages of the global context: ISIS / LIH, Iraq, Syria, Nigeria, Israel, Afghanistan, Iran, North Korea ... anything can happen and to lower the priority of our war in the eyes of the world community. And it is very important to us. And Russia will do its best. Our job - to hold on, to build a new modern country and develop its economy, its army and infrastructure, to know each other, go to visit, to create a new quality and quantity of horizontal public relations, build civic institutions, to develop a culture, eager to learn, make contacts and find friends around the world, taking from them the best and modern. And we will win. Sergei Koshman public figure, one of the coordinators of the movement "We - the Europeans"

[Muzh]

Jay, could you please stop posting this stupid shit?


Please?

[lordtiberius]

Finally some good news,

Canada to initiate free trade with Ukraine

http://m.thestar.com/#/article/news/world/2015/01/25/canada-talks-free-trade-in-kyiv-as-fighting-intensifies-in-eastern-ukraine.html

EU waits for Putin's blessing.  US clueless

[BillyB]

Finally some good news,

Canada to initiate free trade with Ukraine

Canada must first send some money over there so Ukraine can buy their goods. Problem is if the West sends money over there now, the money will go to Russia if the country changes hands. First the conflict must end before the economy can be repaired.

[mendeleyev]

Finally some good news,

Canada to initiate free trade with Ukraine

http://m.thestar.com/#/article/news/world/2015/01/25/canada-talks-free-trade-in-kyiv-as-fighting-intensifies-in-eastern-ukraine.html

EU waits for Putin's blessing.  US clueless

LT, the USA has had free trade with Ukraine for quite some time. By 2012 Ukraine had become the 67th largest goods trading partner to the USA with $3.3 billion in total (two way) goods trade. 

[lordtiberius]

America needs to lead the way.

[Larry1]

Some of you might find this interesting:

Reverse Flows Shore Up Ukrainian Gas Supplies

After the gas crisis of 2008 to 2009, during which Russia cut off gas supplies to Ukraine for nearly two weeks, Europe resolved to beef up its energy infrastructure to help prevent such an event in the future. By building out so-called “reverse flow” capabilities, European countries could increase their ability to supply one another in the case of crisis. Now, as Reuters reports, Europe’s reverse flow capacity looks set to jump nearly 27 percent this weekend:

Reverse flows have received a major boost from the new Budince interconnection point between Slovakia and Ukraine. Flows between the two countries began last September following a deal between Slovak transmission system operator Eustream and its Ukrainian counterpart Ukrtransgaz.

In addition, EU member Poland can send 4 mcm per day into Ukraine and Hungary has the capacity to send 16 mcm/day, although Polish reverse flows have not been used this year.

The thinking behind this strategy is easy to understand: it’s not feasible for Europe to significantly reduce its dependence on Russian gas, but if it can construct a more robust pipeline network, it can undercut Putin’s divide-and-conquer strategy. It’s not a perfect solution, but for the time being it’s the best Europe—and especially Ukraine—can hope to employ.

http://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/01/25/reverse-flows-shore-up-ukrainian-gas-supplies/
 

[ML]

Canada must first send some money over there so Ukraine can buy their goods. Problem is if the West sends money over there now, the money will go to Russia if the country changes hands. First the conflict must end before the economy can be repaired.

This isn't how money works anymore.

No need to physically send or even wire transfer to banks in Ukraine.

Merely set up account in Canada that can be used to purchase goods from Canadian firms.

[JayH]

   
West's agri-giants snap up Ukraine

The stakes around Ukraine's vast agricultural sector - the world's third-largest exporter of corn and fifth-largest exporter of wheat - could not be higher. Ukraine is known for its ample fields of rich black soil, and the country boasts more than 32 million hectares of fertile, arable land - the equivalent of one-third of the entire arable land in the European Union.

The maneuvering for control over the country's agricultural system is a pivotal factor in the struggle that has been taking place over the last year in the greatest East-West confrontation since the Cold War.

The presence of foreign corporations in Ukrainian agriculture is growing quickly, with more than 1.6 million hectares signed over to foreign companies for agricultural purposes in recent years. While Monsanto, Cargill, and DuPont have been in Ukraine for quite some time, their investments in the country have grown significantly over the past few years.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/CEN-02-280115.html

[BillyB]

The presence of foreign corporations in Ukrainian agriculture is growing quickly, with more than 1.6 million hectares signed over to foreign companies for agricultural purposes in recent years. While Monsanto, Cargill, and DuPont have been in Ukraine for quite some time, their investments in the country have grown significantly over the past few years.

Foreign companies should be scared to make investments in Russia and they should also be scared of investing their money in Ukraine until they find out who's going to own it in the end. Putin would love to own those high producing farms paid for by the West.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-28/putin-goes-all-in-as-ukraine-fights-for-funding-to-avert-default

[JayH]

US allocates Ukraine $ 2 billion

28.01.2015 11:10
KYIV, January 28 /Ukrinform/. The U.S. Government provides financial support to Ukraine in the form of government guarantees worth $ 2 billion.

The corresponding declaration has been signed by finance minister of Ukraine Natalie Jaresko and U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob Joseph Lew, an Ukrinform correspondent has reported.

"Today, the United States and Ukraine have signed a declaration on cooperation in field of loan guarantees. The United States provides Ukraine with loan guarantees worth $ 2 billion. This will allow Ukraine to more actively implement the already started reforms and to attract foreign financial loans under more favorable conditions for Ukraine," Jaresko said.

The U.S. assistance is part of a wider package of international support to Ukraine for implementing reforms and restoring financial stability.

http://24today.net/open/288548

[JayH]

A very important decision for Ukraine was made today. The IMF ongoing support is crucial to any chance that Ukraine has for reform.

IMF confirmed that increased credit to Ukraine to $ 40 billion

The International Monetary Fund loan program expands Kyiv.

IMF plans to provide Ukraine additional 17.5 billion. Thus, Ukraine will receive nearly $ 40 billion over four years.
Більше читайте тут: http://tsn.ua/groshi/mvf-planuye-vidiliti-ukrayini-dodatkovi-17-5-milyarda-dolariv-zmi-408850.html

[lordtiberius]

As usual, we must read the fine print.  The West has a shameful reputation in this part of the world.

[jone]

As usual, we must read the fine print.  The West has a shameful reputation in this part of the world.

That is a blanket statement that tells us nothing.  Most Ukrainians that I know do not have the idea that the West is shameful.

[lordtiberius]

That is a blanket statement that tells us nothing.  Most Ukrainians that I know do not have the idea that the West is shameful.

That is a blanket statement that sums up the facts.  Most Ukrainians that I know reckon that the West is shameful, but keep hoping for some kind of change, "bit by bit", "we're getting there", etc etc

[AkMike]

What you've stated is NOT what I've seen or heard there from many. 

[lordtiberius]

What you've stated is NOT what I've seen or heard there from many.

I am sorry my experiences do not exactly mirror yours.

[AkMike]

I'm not.   I must hang with folks with a better outlook on life.