Ukraine-The Future

[mendeleyev]

Natural:

Wouldn't it be Nice if the war stopped completely and everyone went back to here they came from?

Sure, but Moscow is committed to:

- the concept of "Russian World" in which Cold War boundaries, including the areas of Odessa, etc, are still in limbo. That is published and broadcast on Russian media frequently these days.

- control of all Black Sea areas now possessed by Ukraine. To the Kremlin, this is a two-pronged deal: resources that would no longer have to be shared with Kyiv, and strategic Black Sea access to Russia's military.

- Mr. Putin is just as passionate today, as he was last month, about the Eurasian Union. Little Armenia doesn't bring much to the table, but the "breadbasket" of Europe potential represented by the Ukrainian heartland is vitally important to his agricultural goals for the Eurasian bloc.

It would be nice if he would stop, but I'll put my money where it is smart: on him NOT stopping.

[mendeleyev]

That area is not an economic plus for Ukraine.  It takes more in services that it sends back to Kyiv, and its industry is largely dirty, dangerous, and being phased out. 


If the Kremlin doesn't want further sanctions, it won't have much choice.  Cutting the ability of oligarchs to access their funds (via SWIFT), and restricting their ability to travel abroad will bring the Kremlin into line.  The question you ask is the wrong one.  The right question is whether the EU has the cojones to up the ante.

Absolutely correct. The Crimean annexation is already stretching the budget and has caused great tension between the government of PM Medvedev and the wishes of President Putin, especially as he is demanding increased military spending.

For those foolish enough to say that sanctions aren't working: last week in the Security Council meeting, Mr. Putin informed all ministers that their personal salaries have been cut by 10% immediately due to the on-going budget stains. Mr. Medvedev indicated that those cuts will be passed on down the line to the various departments.

The rebuilding, then funding, of the Donbas would be an albatross around Moscow's neck, so, they'll pull an Abkhazia out of the hat. Like Abkhazia which has little in economic value, but represents some weirdly funky "moral victory" of Moscow over Georgia.

Declaring Donbas to be independent will be a death sentence to the poor folk stuck there. If you are ignorant of that reality, visit Abkhazia or Transnistria sometime. Poverty heaped upon poverty is all those folks have because they bring no value to Russia, yet Russia has placed them in some backwater "frozen" conflict that holds them in hell. Meanwhile the average Russian will laud the Great Leader as the new Saint who "saved the Donbass children."

[lordtiberius]

You say I am asking the wrong question and yet you ask a question we all know the answer to.  No the EU does not have a moral conscience.


Puerto Rico is an economic drain.  So is Newfoundland.  So if Cuba or Russia takes over Newfoundland or the PR, your response is oh well?

The land and the people  of the Donbas is rich and beautiful.  They are Ukrainian and want to live in Ukraine and indeed are dying for Ukraine.  If we do not keep faith with these people, then we are the weaker for it, not them.

[The Natural]

For those foolish enough to say that sanctions aren't working: last week in the Security Council meeting, Mr. Putin informed all ministers that their personal salaries have been cut by 10% immediately due to the on-going budget stains. Mr. Medvedev indicated that those cuts will be passed on down the line to the various departments.

Sure, sanctions are working and hurting the Russian economy. But so are they hurting the EU economy. One of the goals of Washington, to separate Europe and Russia. Hopefully that will not succeeed. Either EU break ties With US Foreign policy or they lose out as Russia goes east for good.

Declaring Donbas to be independent will be a death sentence to the poor folk stuck there. If you are ignorant of that reality, visit Abkhazia or Transnistria sometime. Poverty heaped upon poverty is all those folks have because they bring no value to Russia, yet Russia has placed them in some backwater "frozen" conflict that holds them in hell.

Better to be poor than exterminated I supposed. Besides, poverty is what is waiting for the Whole of Ukraine. Even now we hear from Kiev controlled areas that People don't get their salaries for months. The US and it's western lapdogs are not in Ukraine to promote Democracy and wealth for the average person. That is very naive to believe and it's inevitable that Ukrainians in ever larger numbers are going to realize that fact.... then what will happen?

[lordtiberius]

There is no evidence of a US conspiracy in Ukraine or against Russia.  The United States has no Russia policy.  Its former policy of reset died when Ambassador McFaul packed his bags.

[Boethius]

You say I am asking the wrong question and yet you ask a question we all know the answer to.  No the EU does not have a moral conscience.


Puerto Rico is an economic drain.  So is Newfoundland.  So if Cuba or Russia takes over Newfoundland or the PR, your response is oh well?

The land and the people  of the Donbas is rich and beautiful.  They are Ukrainian and want to live in Ukraine and indeed are dying for Ukraine.  If we do not keep faith with these people, then we are the weaker for it, not them.

The majority of people just want the war to stop.  They are not committed to Ukraine, nor to the terrorists.

[lordtiberius]

And defeatism won't stop the war.  It just creates a longer war.

[Muzh]

You say I am asking the wrong question and yet you ask a question we all know the answer to.  No the EU does not have a moral conscience.


Puerto Rico is an economic drain.  So is Newfoundland.  So if Cuba or Russia takes over Newfoundland or the PR, your response is oh well?

The land and the people  of the Donbas is rich and beautiful.  They are Ukrainian and want to live in Ukraine and indeed are dying for Ukraine.  If we do not keep faith with these people, then we are the weaker for it, not them.

Why you speak of things you not know?


The best thing the US can do for PR is to give them their independence. Here's the irony. What is happening in PR is exactly what the US and the Western world are pontificating to Russia for doing. Namely, holding a territory hostage for no reason except to project power.

[lordtiberius]

Despite your flirtation with the Euromaidan movement, your recent positions makes you an appeaser.  You are worthless to me and back on the ignore list.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_movement_in_Puerto_Rico

You can't get your facts straight.  Typical for a socialist

[BillyB]

For those foolish enough to say that sanctions aren't working: last week in the Security Council meeting, Mr. Putin informed all ministers that their personal salaries have been cut by 10% immediately due to the on-going budget stains. Mr. Medvedev indicated that those cuts will be passed on down the line to the various departments.

I'll be a foolish one. No amount of sanctions will stop Putin from achieving his goals. Only an army will. Sanctions weren't designed to hurt Russia's economy, but used as a tool to stop Putin which so far has failed. 10% pay cuts for politicians is happening to show the public they share their pain but if they want to steal an additional 20% they could.


EU shows little appetite to apply more or extend existing sanctions. Putin understands the West isn't unified against him.


http://news.yahoo.com/eu-shows-little-appetite-more-russia-sanctions-125458537.html

[BillyB]

While on break, the rebels hold their first beauty pageant.


For your viewing pleasure

[mendeleyev]

You are not necessarily foolish, Billy. You just do not live in Russia, and therefore do not experience, the impact of sanctions.

I do not ever recall saying or thinking that sanctions by themselves would stop Putin. Short of a full armed conflict, sanctions are one leg of the table, but an important leg. They are having an impact, and will continue to do so as long as the West keeps up the pressure.

Another leg of that table is the increasing number of boys coming home for burial. There more of those, the closer Mr. Putin edges to having Russians realize that he has drug them into another Afghanistan. For Russians, many with Ukrainian relatives, he would not survive such a comparison. That is why I support more military assistance in training and equipping the Ukrainian Army.

[lordtiberius]

The troops came home after 16,000 killed in the SU.  Russian losses are a state secret, but I have heard figures as high as 6,000 KIA.  Isn't he at or over the edge now?

[fathertime]

Sure, sanctions are working and hurting the Russian economy. But so are they hurting the EU economy. One of the goals of Washington, to separate Europe and Russia. Hopefully that will not succeeed. Either EU break ties With US Foreign policy or they lose out as Russia goes east for good.
 

From my perspective one concern I have about sanctions is that I believe Russia will survive them, and when it is over we (the USA) will will be out of the loop and lose business.  China is not participating in the sanctions which is a win-win for China/Russia. 


I was browsing the internet and read this story this morning. 
http://news.yahoo.com/china-vows-cooperation-russia-despite-wests-sanctions-090311993.html


Fathertime!   

[BillyB]

Short of a full armed conflict, sanctions are one leg of the table, but an important leg. They are having an impact, and will continue to do so as long as the West keeps up the pressure.

Before Putin stepped into Ukraine, he had already factored in all the consequences and was prepared to accept them. Because he accepts sanctions, they don't work. What Putin probably didn't realize was the sanctions being so weak. Usually when we are upset with doing business with a company, we stop completely doing business with them. Europe's economy is so fragile that they can't afford to lose business with even one customer, especially one who provides them with gas.


The Russian people are blaming the West for their economic sufferings more than Putin. Many feel they do have business in Ukraine. For others, the propaganda is working. Putin is more popular in Russia than Obama is in America. Does that mean he's a better leader than Obama? No. We hold our leaders to higher standards and expect more from them. Because the Russian people accept less, they will get less and at this time, regardless of sanctions, politically Putin is still in a good spot and if he can successfully harvest the hatred towards the West, he can become very dangerous.

China is not participating in the sanctions which is a win-win for China/Russia. 

China could be one of Russia's partners should world war breaks out. China sees Obama downsizing our military while they've moved to the #2 spot in the world. China sees Obama's unwillingness to act in other places of the world so China sees this as an opportunity to claim more islands and natural resources as their own in the China Sea. They do just enough so that we won't act. This is a technique Putin is using with limited success. When given a choice, I try not to buy Chinese.

[Muzh]

Despite your flirtation with the Euromaidan movement, your recent positions makes you an appeaser.  You are worthless to me and back on the ignore list.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_movement_in_Puerto_Rico

You can't get your facts straight.  Typical for a socialist

Can't argue with ignorance and ignorants.

[mendeleyev]

From my perspective one concern I have about sanctions is that I believe Russia will survive them, and when it is over we (the USA) will will be out of the loop and lose business.  China is not participating in the sanctions which is a win-win for China/Russia. 

Fathertime!

Not even close.

For the WTO alone, Russia needs the USA, not to mention the G8 again at some point. China simply cannot supply all the things that Western nations do.

Russia and the USA are more intertwined that most citizens of either nation realize: When the Ruble crashes, what currency do Russians still stash under the mattress? US Dollars, by far.

Where do a majority of Russians want to travel, at least once in their lifetimes? The USA.

When it comes to second homes, think London, Miami, New York, and to a lesser degree Chicago and California. Are any of those locations in China?

When Russian families send children abroad to study, it certainly is not to China. Hint: the USA, and the UK.

When Russian companies gauge their growth and competitiveness against others, where are most of those located? Hint: it is definitely not China.

As the Russian military modernizes and reforms, who does it use to measure progress? Hint: it still ain't China, my friend.

Now this next part may surprise you:

While the Soviets labeled the USA as the "main enemy," there was another large nation, on Russia's borders, that Russians still consider as a natural enemy, and fully expect to have to engage in a future conflict over borders? Hint: it ain't the USA.

Regionally, which neighboring country makes Moscow most nervous? Hint, it still ain't the USA.

Russia has also deepened ties with India as a political and economic counterweight to which other Eastern nation? Hint: it still ain't the USA.

The potential ambitions of which neighboring nation has caused the Russian prioritize investment and development of the Russian Far East? Hint: it still ain't the USA.

Speaking of the question above, the Russians have made a priority of upgrading military readiness in the Far East, and in particular the modernization of transport systems so as to allow the Russian military to have a rapid response in case of serious border violations. What nation makes the Kremlin nervous about this issue? Hint: it still ain't the USA.

Have the Chinese and Russians increased trade? Sure, that was in the works (as I have written to you previously) long before the current tensions. So, which nation seized upon Russia's current problems to renegotiate (downward) previously agreed upon oil prices? Hint: it still ain't the USA.

You also need to understand that Mr. Putin's mindset is very much one of holding his friends close, and if possible, his enemies closer. Russia is rebuilding China's railroads, for instance. Russia is consulting China on water/dam projects. Russia is consulting China on nuclear power expansion. So what would be a major concern in Security Council meetings? I'll answer that one for you: Moscow fears that on one hand they need to develop economic ties with China in order to keep Chinese expansion curtailed (BRICS: those who trade together, play nice together). However, on the other hand, there is the equal fear that they will eventually help China to the point that China might feel empowered to undertake border expansion at Russia's expense.

In that vein, Russia needs an on-going relationship with the USA, as badly strained as it is, to help counterbalance China.

[mendeleyev]

Billy:

Before Putin stepped into Ukraine, he had already factored in all the consequences and was prepared to accept them.

Actually, he had not. Much of Western reaction caught him off guard.

Because he accepts sanctions, they don't work.

We are on the same side, Billy, but again, on this issue you're speaking from an armchair, thousands of miles away. Were you to live here, you'd have a different understanding.

[fathertime]

Not even close.

For the WTO alone, Russia needs the USA, not to mention the G8 again at some point. China simply cannot supply all the things that Western nations do.

Russia and the USA are more intertwined that most citizens of either nation realize: When the Ruble crashes, what currency do Russians still stash under the mattress? US Dollars, by far.

Where do a majority of Russians want to travel, at least once in their lifetimes? The USA.

When it comes to second homes, think London, Miami, New York, and to a lesser degree Chicago and California. Are any of those locations in China?

When Russian families send children abroad to study, it certainly is not to China. Hint: the USA, and the UK.

When Russian companies gauge their growth and competitiveness against others, where are most of those located? Hint: it is definitely not China.

As the Russian military modernizes and reforms, who does it use to measure progress? Hint: it still ain't China, my friend.

Now this next part may surprise you:

While the Soviets labeled the USA as the "main enemy," there was another large nation, on Russia's borders, that Russians still consider as a natural enemy, and fully expect to have to engage in a future conflict over borders? Hint: it ain't the USA.

Regionally, which neighboring country makes Moscow most nervous? Hint, it still ain't the USA.

Russia has also deepened ties with India as a political and economic counterweight to which other Eastern nation? Hint: it still ain't the USA.

The potential ambitions of which neighboring nation has caused the Russian prioritize investment and development of the Russian Far East? Hint: it still ain't the USA.

Speaking of the question above, the Russians have made a priority of upgrading military readiness in the Far East, and in particular the modernization of transport systems so as to allow the Russian military to have a rapid response in case of serious border violations. What nation makes the Kremlin nervous about this issue? Hint: it still ain't the USA.

Have the Chinese and Russians increased trade? Sure, that was in the works (as I have written to you previously) long before the current tensions. So, which nation seized upon Russia's current problems to renegotiate (downward) previously agreed upon oil prices? Hint: it still ain't the USA.

You also need to understand that Mr. Putin's mindset is very much one of holding his friends close, and if possible, his enemies closer. Russia is rebuilding China's railroads, for instance. Russia is consulting China on water/dam projects. Russia is consulting China on nuclear power expansion. So what would be a major concern in Security Council meetings? I'll answer that one for you: Moscow fears that on one hand they need to develop economic ties with China in order to keep Chinese expansion curtailed (BRICS: those who trade together, play nice together). However, on the other hand, there is the equal fear that they will eventually help China to the point that China might feel empowered to undertake border expansion at Russia's expense.

In that vein, Russia needs an on-going relationship with the USA, as badly strained as it is, to help counterbalance China.

You must have read a LOT into my post!   


The points I and the link made were:
1.  China and Russia are working together
2. After this crisis ends we (the USA) may lose some business to China or other nations
3. There is also a chance that parallel banking options will be set up so this threat will not exist the way it seems to today.




I would hope that there would still be some cooperation between the nations.  It doesn't appear to be in either China's or Russia's interest to fight over their common border.  From what I gather in your post, the mindset is that Russia/China are enemies (pretending to be friendly)...well they may feel the USA is the greater enemy so they are going to work together in that respect and that is the part that concerns me. 


Fathertime!   

[mendeleyev]

Neville:

You must have read a LOT into my post!

No, there really wasn't much there, and I do not mean to be offensive by saying that.

However it is ever apparent that you lack a lot of the background knowledge to write coherently about the region. So rather than reading a lot into your post, I simply wrote a lot--as an investment in your data base.   

[BillyB]

Actually, he had not. Much of Western reaction caught him off guard.

We'll have to disagree on that one. There's no way I'd believe that Putin didn't believe there would be consequences for invading the largest nation in Europe. Because he knew there would be punishment, right from the beginning he played his invasion off as a internal conflict/Ukrainian civil war. The Soviet Union was sanctioned for many years for spreading their influence around the world so Putin does have an idea on how the West would feel about his involvement in Ukraine.

Were you to live here, you'd have a different understanding.

I've read a lot of independent news sources and read the pro and anti Putin comments from readers after. I've read pro Putin posters who live in Russia there and right here on this forum and I believe they will ride the Putin train right off a cliff. That is how much they'll back him.


I've read a number of independent polls showing Putin's popularity rising and the approval rating of the West is falling. Russians have much higher approval ratings for China than they do America at this moment. These are real trends in Russia. Most of the people writing and reporting news in Russia don't think like you. They are either scared to write freely or actually believe in Putin's agenda.


I'm sure every Russian hates the fact their currency is losing strength and their quality of life is down but right now I see most people directing their anger towards the West more than Putin. Only tens of thousands of people turned out to protest the murder of anti Putin leader Nemtsov. In America we can get a million people to turn out for gay rights. Until I start seeing people turn out in the upper hundred of thousands or millions for something as major as killing an opposition leader or protest their lack of a quality life, I'm going to believe most of the anger from Russian citizens is directed towards the West.

[Brasscasing]

Before Putin stepped into Ukraine, he had already factored in all the consequences and was prepared to accept them.

Billy:
Actually, he had not. Much of Western reaction caught him off guard.

We'll have to disagree on that one. There's no way I'd believe that Putin didn't believe there would be consequences for invading the largest nation in Europe. Because he knew there would be punishment, right from the beginning he played his invasion off as a internal conflict/Ukrainian civil war. The Soviet Union was sanctioned for many years for spreading their influence around the world so Putin does have an idea on how the West would feel about his involvement in Ukraine.

What Putin wasn't expecting was one of his BUKs shooting down a civilian airliner. It put the world's spotlight on what had up to then been a well executed stealth invasion.

Brass

[The Natural]

From my perspective one concern I have about sanctions is that I believe Russia will survive them, and when it is over we (the USA) will will be out of the loop and lose business.  China is not participating in the sanctions which is a win-win for China/Russia. 

[/url]


Fathertime!

I believe Russia will survive the sanctions. They are used to hard times. Europeans not so much. We see now that even Merkel reacts publicly to the agressive behaviour of the Obama administration and NATO (USA). Europe is hurting from the sanctions. There's been protests from EU farmers and there's a limit to just exactly high EU can jump on orders from Washington. EU must break With Washington's Foreign policies or face great economic problems and Public outcry. IF they do, Washington will be isolated. EU should do business With Russia, China, the rest of BRICS and others. Ditch the US dollar and get a New world reserve currency.

[fathertime]

Neville:
No, there really wasn't much there, and I do not mean to be offensive by saying that.

However it is ever apparent that you lack a lot of the background knowledge to write coherently about the region. So rather than reading a lot into your post, I simply wrote a lot--as an investment in your data base.   

HA!  Thanks for investing in my data base again. 


I've reread my initial comments, and although your data base investment was nice, there wasn't anything incoherent about the initial comment I made  and quoted below.  My allegiance is mostly with the US so if I see a foreign policy move as not in our interests I'll mention it.  Us getting too involved in Ukraine is one of those cases as I see it harming us in both the short and long term....although I'm always open to a discussion about how I could be mistaken.   

From my perspective one concern I have about sanctions is that I believe Russia will survive them, and when it is over we (the USA) will will be out of the loop and lose business.  China is not participating in the sanctions which is a win-win for China/Russia. 


I was browsing the internet and read this story this morning. 
http://news.yahoo.com/china-vows-cooperation-russia-despite-wests-sanctions-090311993.html


Fathertime!   

[lordtiberius]

What a bunch of nonsense, the aggressive nature of THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION and FT's allegiance to America.  This is one hundred bong hits away from being a good time.  Put away the tin foil hats and live in the real world, boys.