Putin is No Hitler

[Shadow]

Shadow,

          I'm sure you're well aware of your countries outrage at the total lack of respect shown toward the 298 dead passengers by the very same Pro-russian separatists who's cause you have been championing.

Looks like some of us are not as stupid as you've been calling us..and maybe you need to re-evaluate your defence of those criminals.

There is no outrage in my country towards anyone. Perhaps we are not as easily persuaded by propaganda as you.
As for re-evaluating there is no need unless someone can prove that they knowingly and willingly shot down a commercial flight.

[noelscot]

Just Sayin: 

If Putin had a clear head, wasn't in the midst of the Olympics and had time to think about things, I am willing to bet he would not have taken Crimea.  In retrospect, things were out of control in his neighboring country, which just months before had averted a collision course with Russian policies by promising not to affiliate with the EU.  Now with Maidan in the forefront and the Berkut hightailing it back to Crimea and the East with blood on their hands - and probable FSB participation in the deaths of the Maidan activists, his pet puppet Yanukovych was running for his life .... to Russia.  This was probably the scenario from hell, rising up to haunt Russia for its past misdeeds in the short life of Ukraine, the State.

Angela Merkel said it best:  He's not in his right mind!

The best scenario that Russia could hope for would be that Maidan would turn into the Orange Revolution, which would fizzle out in a couple of years and it would be business as usual.  A worse scenario would be that Russia would have an active role in the future of Ukrainian affairs, if not for the gas subsidy and the lease of the naval base, but also of the joint venture partnerships across defense and other industries.  While Ukraine would struggle to embrace Western values, Uncle Boris could always be there, explaining that Ukraine was really a lost part of Russia waiting to come home.

But Putin saw himself more than just the elected leader of Russia.  He saw himself as someone capable of restoring Russia to her preeminence before the fall of Lenin.  He considered himself to be the master strategist, above the game.  The Chess Master who could win with strategy.  Until he made a mistake .....

Many believe that Crimea happened because Russia was caught off guard.  1.  They didn't believe Yanukovych would fall - and if he did, not as quickly as he did.  2.  They had no devised strategy for failure in Ukraine.  Clearer heads had not prevailed.  And 3:  Russia is becoming more and more nationalistic and the forces within his own country were pushing him into precipitous action.

If I had to guess, I would say that the decision to annex Ukraine came between the days when Russia, along with Western diplomats convinced Yanukovych to yield power AND to stage new elections in December.   (That was the original determination and Russia was on board at that time.  I would guess that they felt secure that by December they could, once again, at least partially control the outcome.)  Then the Rada decides that they will hold elections in May! O.M.G!   

What do we do now???????  Was taking Crimea and infiltrating the East really a set plan at that time?  I don't believe so.    Instead, as has been alluded to in other threads, Soviet tactics were revived and the plan was to overthrow Kyiv.  And the best place to start was where the population consisted mostly of retired Russian naval and military personnel and had a majority pro-Russian sentiment.  It is my belief that the hastily drawn up plan to infiltrate Crimea was only given the green light when the Rada moved up the elections.

To prosecute the deal to the fullest, the Russian Army could not stop until it ran into the border of Poland - or at least the Dneiper.   Only then could Russia really keep control over the people that lived there.  Do you all remember Putin asking why other countries didn't take part of Ukraine and just stop the country from existing by parsing it out?  He did mention that as a trial balloon.

Prospects for a Westernized Ukraine did not threaten Putin, it terrorized him.  Everything he has sought to accomplish in his second term as Russia's leader was threatened by this one political act.  And rather than rise to the occasion, he fell to his fear and unleashed his troops.

Putin is no Adolf Hitler.  Hitler had blind ambition to make Eastern Europe a German playground with 'lebansraum'.   The territorial ambitions of Hitler were known and prosecuted by his staff years before they rolled out in the foreign policy arena and battlefields.   I think Putin made the decision to invade and annex Crimea in a series of two or three days, maybe even just one night.

Ultimately everyone comes back to reality.  The simple reality is that Ukraine did not disintegrate as I'm sure many of his advisers told him would happen.  (We had a number of posters on this forum who crowed that Ukraine would exist no more within six months.  Remember?)  The simple fact is that, in spite of all of the propaganda, and deception and saber rattling, the Ukrainian people remained loyal to Kyiv and the idea that Ukraine's future lay with Western European governing strategies.

To fulfill the strategy decided upon in that short window of time in February, Moscow had to control all of Eastern and Southern Ukraine to make the policy plausible.  I'm sure some strategist told him; "Well, if we don't get Eastern and Southern Ukraine, we'll still have Crimea and that will sit well with the Russian people."

In so little a window to decide, no one really thought what would happen if Russia did not control Southern Ukraine.  Crimea would be cut off.   Russia accounted for only 1/7th of the tourist industry in Crimea before 2014.  Now it consists of virtually all of the tourist trade, the coinage of Crimea's business.  Water, power, gas, all come through Ukraine to Crimea.  How could Crimea sustain an agricultural industry without vast amounts of water channeled through to its farm lands?  Such operational plans take years to coalesce.  This operation took only days to plan and precipitate. 

So what went wrong?  Plenty.  Ultimately the largest thing that went wrong for Putin is that the Ukrainians kept their heads and played for enough time to get their leadership issues settled.   The opportune time for Putin to 'Protect his Russian speakers in the East' would have been around May 5th.  Ukrainian leadership was not yet in place.  The separatists were clearly in control of two regions.  And the Russian military had no opposition in front of it. 

The decision to go or not to go:  Ultimately this was Putin's decision.  Were he to go, he would have had to come out from his deceptive front and stage a clear invasion of a neighboring country.  Ukraine would have had to throw everything they had at the Russian tanks and planes coming in - so Russia would have had to attack with everything they had to prevent it.  It would have resulted in a full scale war, with Ukraine losing and Russia occupying.  Putin would have been equated with Hitler by the world. 

Confronted with the possibility of a clear aggression on his part, and the ramifications both to his own image (after all, did he not just prove himself the great statesman on the Olympic stage?) and to his country forced him to back away.    Most of the battle would have been fought on land occupied by Russian speakers.  And Russia was not immune to counter attack at an undefended border.  The risk of great casualties was too evident.  The people of Ukraine were not ready to welcome Russians as saviors. 

Putin's choice of 'No Go' will be a large factor in how people perceive him in the future.  He may be perceived in many ways, but he is no Hitler.

This article might be of interest: http://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical-diary/reflections-unforgiving-day#axzz37RgqEnoE?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=official&utm_campaign=link

[The Natural]

It was definitely a deliberate act to shoot down a plane.  I believe it was the terrorists.  I also believe they thought the plane was a Ukrainian plane, not a civilian airliner.  Right now, they are hampering the investigation, and looting the site.

IF it was deliberately shot down, that would rule out Russia as one can see now that "everyone" in the west assumes (with no proof) that Russia is behind it, although not perhaps on purpose, and then use this to gather support for US-style sanctions. It seems it's working, at least partly.

Oh, so you believe it was the terrorists? Well, we can't rule that out, but personally I'd wait and see if the investigation can shed more light on the shootdown. The terrorists also had these rockets in the area, not only the rebels and the Russians. Besides, they must have hardened themselves after all the killings of innocent people in Eastern Ukraine and in need of something to get some real help from the west. Why do they have these advanced rocket launchers in the area in the first place? The rebels don't have any planes.

Hampering the investigation? Yes, it seems so and it's a great concern. I guess these rebels aren't very well organized, heard of different fractions of them too. The hampering is doing them no good, though.

As for the looting and the "dragging dead bodies around the area" as the Dutch Prime Minister is reported to have said and that angered him, I saw an interesting report by the corresponded on site from Sky News. He said there were no dragging of dead bodies around. Quite the opposite, they were placed in body bags and threated with as much respect as conditions dictate. He could not rule out any looting as they are obviously not on site during the nighttime. But he had seen no looting, he saw belongings, even cash lying in piles of the belongings of the victims.

[Boethius]

IF it was deliberately shot down, that would rule out Russia as one can see now that "everyone" in the west assumes (with no proof) that Russia is behind it, although not perhaps on purpose, and then use this to gather support for US-style sanctions. It seems it's working, at least partly.

The assumption is not that Russia shot down the plane, but rather, that they have been supporting the terrorists on Ukrainian soil.  Allegedly "retired" GRU officers are the military strategists directing the terrorists  A "retired" GRU officer is the self proclaimed "leader" of the forces in Donetsk.

Arms, both small and large, have poured across the border.  Money has made its way from Russia to the terrorists.  And Putin has stated he has influence with the terrorists. 

Russia's prints are all over this conflict.  So, while not directly involved, this is very likely a covert/proxy operation by the Russian Federation.

Oh, so you believe it was the terrorists? Well, we can't rule that out, but personally I'd wait and see if the investigation can shed more light on the shootdown. The terrorists also had these rockets in the area, not only the rebels and the Russians. Besides, they must have hardened themselves after all the killings of innocent people in Eastern Ukraine and in need of something to get some real help from the west. Why do they have these advanced rocket launchers in the area in the first place? The rebels don't have any planes.

They don't have planes, which is why the Ukrainian government has no missiles in that region.

The terrorists were the first to kill people in the Donetsk oblast.  Their first victim was a mayor who did not support them.  So please don't excuse them as "seeing what happened".  Furthermore, if you lived in Ukraine for any period, particularly in a man's world, you would know that seeing death is common.  Usually not violent deaths, but it is common.  The stories I could tell . . .

Hampering the investigation? Yes, it seems so and it's a great concern. I guess these rebels aren't very well organized, heard of different fractions of them too. The hampering is doing them no good, though.

It tends to indicate they are responsible.

As for the looting and the "dragging dead bodies around the area" as the Dutch Prime Minister is reported to have said and that angered him, I saw an interesting report by the corresponded on site from Sky News. He said there were no dragging of dead bodies around. Quite the opposite, they were placed in body bags and threated with as much respect as conditions dictate. He could not rule out any looting as they are obviously not on site during the nighttime. But he had seen no looting, he saw belongings, even cash lying in piles of the belongings of the victims.

There are reports from Australian journalists and British journalists of witnessing terrorists rifling through belongings, and of noting that there is not one cell, camera, or wallet with money among the remains.  Frankly, I expected this.

[Boethius]

BTW, what is behind all of this is the redistribution of wealth.  That is by everyone involved other than the Ukrainian military, but those directing the military are definitely part of this.

[calmissile]

I am amazed how stupid people are regardless of nationality!  I guess critical thinking is not taught anywhere in the world anymore.  People believe the most ridiculous, impossible, propaganda scenarios.

Just got off Skype with Larissa.  Kiev has several shopping centers shut down.  Terrorists have apparently planted bombs in shopping centers.  Don't know if it is verified or just a precautionary measure.  It sure does not take many nut cases to cause unrest and instability anywhere in the world.

Our son's Russian friends are certain that the story about Ukraine trying to shoot down Putin's plane over Donetsk is true!   I give up.  Have to turn off the TV before I throw something at it.     

[Shadow]

I am amazed how stupid people are regardless of nationality!  I guess critical thinking is not taught anywhere in the world anymore.  People believe the most ridiculous, impossible, propaganda scenarios.

Just got off Skype with Larissa.  Kiev has several shopping centers shut down.  Terrorists have apparently planted bombs in shopping centers.  Don't know if it is verified or just a precautionary measure.  It sure does not take many nut cases to cause unrest and instability anywhere in the world.

Our son's Russian friends are certain that the story about Ukraine trying to shoot down Putin's plane over Donetsk is true!   I give up.  Have to turn off the TV before I throw something at it.     

If they are truly staring to use terorrism it is a new step. Not one that would surprise me though.

[AC]

Interesting piece in the NYT about an early encounter with Putin -


http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/07/20/opinion/sunday/protecting-russians-in-ukraine-has-deadly-consequences.html?referrer

"In 1994, I was half asleep at a round table in St. Petersburg, Russia, when a short, thickset man with a rather ratlike face — apparently a sidekick of the city’s mayor — suddenly piped up. Russia, he said, had voluntarily given up “huge territories” to the former republics of the Soviet Union, including areas “which historically have always belonged to Russia.” He was thinking “not only about Crimea and northern Kazakhstan, but also for example about the Kaliningrad area.” Russia could not simply abandon to their fate those “25 million Russians” who now lived abroad. The world had to respect the interests of the Russian state “and of the Russian people as a great nation.”

The name of this irritating little man was — you guessed it — Vladimir V. Putin, and I know exactly what he said back in 1994 because the organizers, the Körber Foundation of Hamburg, Germany, published a full transcript. For the phrase that I have translated as “the Russian people,” the German transcript uses the word “volk.” Mr. Putin seemed to have, and still has, an expansive, völkisch definition of “Russians” — or what he now refers to as the “russkiy mir” (literally “Russian world”). The transcript also records that I teased out the consequences of the then-obscure deputy mayor’s vision by saying, “If we defined British nationality to include all English-speaking people, we would have a state slightly larger than China.”

[Faux Pas]

You sure about that?  My understanding was that the operator guides the (BUK) missile onto the target and has control.  I could be wrong.

Yeah, quite confident. The BUK missile system is a very sophisticated system and can target thermal, radar and manual. Depending on the targeting used determines where the missile goes or rather what it goes after. Once the missile is hot, there is no stopping it, it's taking off. In short, manual at 33k feet is one in a million or more to make a hit. Thermal is heat seeking and tracks the hottest target (or biggest heat source). Radar the most reliable, anticipates the target being in a certain place at launch.

The thing is, it is such a sophisticated system, one doesn't capture one and learn how to shoot down planes in a few weeks or even a few months. If it is rebels, they had trained expertise help. It's still unclear if it was Ukrainian owned BUK or if it was Russian owned. Likely, investigating the scene could help determine which. Unfortunately, the rebels are hindering that investigation. I wonder why?

[Shadow]

Yeah, quite confident. The BUK missile system is a very sophisticated system and can target thermal, radar and manual. Depending on the targeting used determines where the missile goes or rather what it goes after. Once the missile is hot, there is no stopping it, it's taking off. In short, manual at 33k feet is one in a million or more to make a hit. Thermal is heat seeking and tracks the hottest target (or biggest heat source). Radar the most reliable, anticipates the target being in a certain place at launch.

The thing is, it is such a sophisticated system, one doesn't capture one and learn how to shoot down planes in a few weeks or even a few months. If it is rebels, they had trained expertise help. It's still unclear if it was Ukrainian owned BUK or if it was Russian owned. Likely, investigating the scene could help determine which. Unfortunately, the rebels are hindering that investigation. I wonder why?

The rebels are reported to be hindering the investigation. Though other reports tell they are seriously making all efforts to handle the situation with respect (Sky news, not RT  )
Do not forget that people on the ground are dealing with a complex, highly emotional and confusing situation.
Add to that the bad communication and probably wrong expectations of the arrived teams like about ability to communicate in English.
Result are conflicting reports an utter confusion, which does no good to the situation.
Perhaps inviting Russia to help instead of threatening would be a good move.

[Boethius]

The Russians aren't needed there.  While protocol would have Ukraine handle this investigation, given the circumstances, I think it would make sense to hand the entire investigation over to the Dutch.

[Shadow]

The Russians aren't needed there.  While protocol would have Ukraine handle this investigation, given the circumstances, I think it would make sense to hand the entire investigation over to the Dutch.

I would feel the investigators would be a lot more confident if escorted by a combined Russian/Ukrainian safety group. The investigation itself could be done without having to bother who arrives at the scene.

[calmissile]

The rebels are reported to be hindering the investigation. Though other reports tell they are seriously making all efforts to handle the situation with respect (Sky news, not RT  )
Do not forget that people on the ground are dealing with a complex, highly emotional and confusing situation.
Add to that the bad communication and probably wrong expectations of the arrived teams like about ability to communicate in English.
Result are conflicting reports an utter confusion, which does no good to the situation.
Perhaps inviting Russia to help instead of threatening would be a good move.

Yea, that would be really smart to allow the perpetrator to destroy evidence.

[Faux Pas]

The rebels are reported to be hindering the investigation. Though other reports tell they are seriously making all efforts to handle the situation with respect (Sky news, not RT  )
Do not forget that people on the ground are dealing with a complex, highly emotional and confusing situation.
Add to that the bad communication and probably wrong expectations of the arrived teams like about ability to communicate in English.
Result are conflicting reports an utter confusion, which does no good to the situation.
Perhaps inviting Russia to help instead of threatening would be a good move.

You're wrapping yourself up in semantics shadow. Who's threatening Russia? Perhaps a question you should ask is: why isn't Putin being forthcoming and helpful in getting the investigation done?

Sure it's confusing and it only becomes more confusing as Russia obfuscates with an obvious shell game of evidence. Russia's and more specifically, Putins behavior is quite telling

[Shadow]

Yea, that would be really smart to allow the perpetrator to destroy evidence.

Where is your evidence that Russia carried out the attack?

[Belvis]

Just to illustrate double standards of our american friends and see long-term outlook of the latest tragedy with shot airplane  I'll remind couple of events:

1. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655

Iran Air Flight 655 was an Iran Air civilian passenger flight from Tehran to Dubai that was shot down by the United States Navy guided missile cruiser USS Vincennes on 3 July 1988. The attack took place in Iranian airspace, over Iran's territorial waters in the Persian Gulf, and on the flight's usual flight path.
All 290 on board, including 66 children and 16 crew, died.
The United States did not apologize to Iran.

2. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siberia_Airlines_Flight_1812

Siberia Airlines Flight 1812 was shot down by the Ukrainian military over the Black Sea on 4 October 2001, en route from Tel Aviv, Israel to Novosibirsk, Russia. The plane, a Soviet-made Tupolev Tu-154, carried an estimated 66 passengers and 12 crew members.  No one on board survived.
Ukrainian military officials initially denied that their missile had brought down the plane; they reported that the S-200 had been launched seawards and had successfully self-destructed.
However, Ukrainian officials later admitted that it was indeed their military that shot down the airliner.

As for the US role in the Ukraine conflict,  we say US want to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian.

[Shadow]

You're wrapping yourself up in semantics shadow. Who's threatening Russia? Perhaps a question you should ask is: why isn't Putin being forthcoming and helpful in getting the investigation done?

Sure it's confusing and it only becomes more confusing as Russia obfuscates with an obvious shell game of evidence. Russia's and more specifically, Putins behavior is quite telling

Russia does not wish to be forthcoming due to people like calmissile who are already convinced of guilt.
Like before, if Russia would help they would be accused of being involved, if they do not they are still being accused. So why go through any trouble if it will just lead to more accusations.

As soon as Russia is approached not as criminal, but as a partner who can help they will be very happy to be involved ans supply whatever is needed. While people point fingers at any move they make, they would rather stay out and let the others sort it out by themselves.

[Larry1]

"In 1994, I was half asleep at a round table in St. Petersburg, Russia, when a short, thickset man with a rather ratlike face — apparently a sidekick of the city’s mayor — suddenly piped up. Russia, he said, had voluntarily given up “huge territories” to the former republics of the Soviet Union, including areas “which historically have always belonged to Russia.” He was thinking “not only about Crimea and northern Kazakhstan, but also for example about the Kaliningrad area.” Russia could not simply abandon to their fate those “25 million Russians” who now lived abroad. The world had to respect the interests of the Russian state “and of the Russian people as a great nation.”

The name of this irritating little man was — you guessed it — Vladimir V. Putin, and I know exactly what he said back in 1994 because the organizers, the Körber Foundation of Hamburg, Germany, published a full transcript. For the phrase that I have translated as “the Russian people,” the German transcript uses the word “volk.” Mr. Putin seemed to have, and still has, an expansive, völkisch definition of “Russians” — or what he now refers to as the “russkiy mir” (literally “Russian world”). The transcript also records that I teased out the consequences of the then-obscure deputy mayor’s vision by saying, “If we defined British nationality to include all English-speaking people, we would have a state slightly larger than China.”

Just after Putin invaded Crimea under the pretext that ethnic Russians were being mistreated there, eerily similar to the claims of a previous European head of state when he invaded a neighboring country which he alleged was mistreating members of his ethnic group, I had the idea for a new slogan Putin could adopt.  What's the Russian translation of "Ein Volk, Ein Reich, Ein Führer"?

[Shadow]

Just after Putin invaded Crimea under the pretext that ethnic Russians were being mistreated there, eerily similar to the claims of a previous European head of state when he invaded a neighboring country which he alleged was mistreating members of his ethnic group, I had the idea for a new slogan Putin could adopt.  What's the Russian translation of "Ein Volk, Ein Reich, Ein Führer"?

In which universe did that happen?

[Larry1]

In which universe did that happen?

This one, Shadow, despite the protestations of you Russian apologists.  Did Ukraine decide to cede Crimea to Russia or did Russian armed forces take Crimea from Russia.

[The Natural]

This one, Shadow, despite the protestations of you Russian apologists.  Did Ukraine decide to cede Crimea to Russia or did Russian armed forces take Crimea from Russia.

They acted swiftly because neo-nazis planned to go down to Crimea and start hell on earth for the folks living there. My Russian family is there now, safe and sound which they would not have been if Crimea also were left to the Kievan junta which hates Russians like Arabs hate Jews. The inhabitants there also wanted it, all the Russian history, military importance, etc. also play in. But they cry for the people in eastern Ukraine, I can tell you. No tears of the civilian casualties in Kiev or the west either, that only reports Ukrainian soldier casualties. In other words (Newspeak) a fair and balanced view, as always. Propaganda is something only the Russians engange in, right?

[sleepycat]

There is no outrage in my country towards anyone.

I guess smoking pot really does have a calming effect...

[The Natural]

I guess smoking pot really does have a calming effect...

Maybe the Ango-American's should try that, hehe

[jone]

They acted swiftly because neo-nazis planned to go down to Crimea and start hell on earth for the folks living there. My Russian family is there now, safe and sound which they would not have been if Crimea also were left to the Kievan junta which hates Russians like Arabs hate Jews. The inhabitants there also wanted it, all the Russian history, military importance, etc. also play in. But they cry for the people in eastern Ukraine, I can tell you. No tears of the civilian casualties in Kiev or the west either, that only reports Ukrainian soldier casualties. In other words (Newspeak) a fair and balanced view, as always. Propaganda is something only the Russians engange in, right?

What an internet whack job.

[Boethius]

They acted swiftly because neo-nazis planned to go down to Crimea and start hell on earth for the folks living there.

Yet "neo Nazis" have allowed Jews to build Chabad centres in Western and Central Ukraine, and the Crimean Tatars had no problems with them.  So why do you believe Russian media propaganda that "neo Nazis" were going to invade Crimea?

My Russian family is there now, safe and sound which they would not have been if Crimea also were left to the Kievan junta which hates Russians like Arabs hate Jews.

Hyperbole again.  The same parties in government in Ukraine now were ruling it in 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999, 1998, 1997, 1996, 1995, and 1994.  Did Russians suddenly wake up and realize they had been hated and unsafe for 2 decades?

The inhabitants there also wanted it, all the Russian history, military importance, etc. also play in.

Not all inhabitants wanted it.

But they cry for the people in eastern Ukraine, I can tell you. No tears of the civilian casualties in Kiev or the west either, that only reports Ukrainian soldier casualties. In other words (Newspeak) a fair and balanced view, as always. Propaganda is something only the Russians engange in, right?

That is pure, pardon the expression, B.S.  The Ukrainian government reports every casualty, be it of a soldier, a civilian, or even a terrorist.  It is reported in Ukrainian papers daily.  I know, because I read them.

There are thousands of refugees from Eastern Ukraine in Central Ukraine and in "Nazi central", L'viv.  Unlike the terrorists, the UKrainian government did not force them to go there, but people in those regions opened their homes to the refugees.


BTW, as I posted previoiusly, the "hero" "rebels" have been stealing from the victims of the crashed plane.  What does that tell you about how much reverence they have for the dead?