Putin is Ruining Russia

[JayH]

Y'all must read this. An amazing read. Truly on topic about how Putin really screwed the pooch with Ukraine though people like Doll still won't see the forest for the trees.

Taz-- another interesting perspective of the realities.You may have noticed I have posted literally hundreds of links to articles from a huge cross-section from academics,intellectuals,observers,military men/woman!,plus many others -- basically dealing with different aspects of Ukraine  and Russia .
The views generally are about 97% in Ukraine's favour ( about the same % as on the forums!!)-- and you have to wonder about how people think that want to argue obtuse points. In 2015 the access to information is easy enough-- Putin knows this and is attempting to defy common sense with Kremlin propaganda attempting to flood public opinion spaces in all forms of media with the Kremlin reworked "truth" !
I get irritated when I see basic propaganda nonsense repeated eg America is responsible for Maidan -or- America is trying to own Ukraine-- and particularly when I read insular isolationist ideas that the US can withdraw from world affairs with impunity.Fact is--historically the US has benefited from many treaties-- many which are in place today-- and those not understanding that obligations are exactly that.
It is that point of honour that sets the civilised world apart from the likes of Putin and Russia today. Russia not only proved that they have no honour but that they can never be trusted again-- marching into Ukraine in clear breach of the Budapest Agreement.
That agreement-- should be sufficient grounds for all the western countries (not just those party to the agreement) to give Ukraine ALL the help they need to get Russia out of Ukraine.

[southernX]

Yes thank you for the excellent summary, Brass.

I think this might be the cause of some confusion for European and Aussie posters.  In the USA the right wing party wants to maintain the sanctions and to arm Ukraine, whereas our left wing party are generally speaking pacifists who are reluctant to arm Ukraine and think that sanctions alone will work.

nah , no confusion here AC,
brass was spot on with his summary , as was bo , the far right have support across many countries via russia , so afaic there vote is bought by putin

AUSTRALIANS  have fought across all spectres of war ,  several family members have died in ww1 & 2   as well as fought in vietnam .......aussies dont mind a stoush , no gutless wonders here either ,

SX

[JayH]

nah , no confusion here AC,
brass was spot on with his summary , as was bo , the far right have support across many countries via russia , so afaic there vote is bought by putin

AUSTRALIANS  have fought across all spectres of war ,  several family members have died in ww1 & 2   as well as fought in vietnam .......aussies dont mind a stoush , no gutless wonders here either ,

SX

Exactly-- I think it is correct to say that every war the US has been involved in for over 100 years-- Australians have fought alongside Americans-- in fact--the only nation to do so.

[sleepycat]

Y'all must read this. An amazing read. Truly on topic about how Putin really screwed the pooch with Ukraine though people like Doll still won't see the forest for the trees.

http://www.newrepublic.com/article/120778/eurasian-economic-union-putins-geopolitical-project-already-failing?

It talks about several areas such as the Eurasian Union.

Hey Doll! Please spin us how this so-called 'Eurasian Union' is some kind of legitimate international trade pact, and not the mother of all jokes!
 

[lordtiberius]

Go back and read my quote.  I said "generally speaking".  And BTW, Obama is a Democrat.

Nor are you accurately reporting that those on the right like Senator Rand Paul oppose Ukrainian aid . .

[lordtiberius]

Taz-- another interesting perspective of the realities.You may have noticed I have posted literally hundreds of links to articles from a huge cross-section from academics,intellectuals,observers,military men/woman!,plus many others -- basically dealing with different aspects of Ukraine  and Russia .
The views generally are about 97% in Ukraine's favour ( about the same % as on the forums!!)-- and you have to wonder about how people think that want to argue obtuse points. In 2015 the access to information is easy enough-- Putin knows this and is attempting to defy common sense with Kremlin propaganda attempting to flood public opinion spaces in all forms of media with the Kremlin reworked "truth" !
I get irritated when I see basic propaganda nonsense repeated eg America is responsible for Maidan -or- America is trying to own Ukraine-- and particularly when I read insular isolationist ideas that the US can withdraw from world affairs with impunity.Fact is--historically the US has benefited from many treaties-- many which are in place today-- and those not understanding that obligations are exactly that.
It is that point of honour that sets the civilised world apart from the likes of Putin and Russia today. Russia not only proved that they have no honour but that they can never be trusted again-- marching into Ukraine in clear breach of the Budapest Agreement.
That agreement-- should be sufficient grounds for all the western countries (not just those party to the agreement) to give Ukraine ALL the help they need to get Russia out of Ukraine.

Kissinger's position favors Russia.

[mendeleyev]

It would appear you believe this Eurasian Union is the entire reason for the crisis...if not, then my apologies for misstating your viewpoint....I don't think it is the entire reason, one reason I state that, is there is really no hope of Ukraine being close to Russia like it was prior to the crisis...The best that Russia can reasonably hope for is to carve a bit for themselves and let the rest go

FT, it is not about what I believe, it is about what I know.

Ukraine is key to the Eurasian Union. The Kremlin was alarmed at the events of Maidan and feared losing control of Ukraine. Frankly, if he loses the Eurasian Union, he likely loses power at this point. To begin, he has never understood Ukraine as being sovereign, any more than he feels Belarus or Kazakhstan are really sovereign. There is already a "Union State" status between Russia and Belarus.

He has always understood that without Ukraine, the Eurasian Union will fail. His reaction after Maidan showed duplicity: he rescued Yanukovich and brought him to Russia, but then refused to meet with him. The two were never exactly best of buddies, anyway. Yanukovich represents a dumb stooge, a coal miner in a ill-fitting suit, and when Yanukovich ruled, things were "okay" as long as Ukrainians understood who was boss.

Putin thought that he could quickly bring Kyiv to her knees after Maidan, and that she would come crawling back. That has not happened and instead, the Ukrainians have a President and Prime Minister with balls. No, they are not perfect, but they are perfect for what is needed at the moment. Today we have a Russia in real trouble financially and at some point, sooner than later, this will cause the human feces to strike the rotating oscillator.

The sanctions, including his own reverse sanctions, are tanking his own economy. He is stuck: if the lifts the reverse sanctions, that will be equivalent to surrender. Lifting his own reverse sanctions will allow Western farmers to have access again to Russian markets. However if he lifts those, that will expose his previous promises that Russia will truly develop her own agriculture, her own milk farming, her own goods/products distribution systems, etc. At the same the Western sanctions, mostly financial, travel and banking, against a small number of well-connected and very wealthy leaders and Oligarchs, have forced the Ruble down and are driving Russian bonds and debt instruments to near junk status.

All this is why he sent the peace proposal to Poroshenko late last week. Of course, Putin must save face, so he hopes that Ukraine will do all the compromising in order for him to declare some sort of moral victory--long enough to have the Western sanctions lifted. What that happens, Putin will be back in the mix, working to develop uprisings in time for future elections in Ukraine.

Crimea: The invasion, and it was an invasion. Even Mr. Putin understands the public relations value at home for taking credit for all those Russian paratroopers dropping from planes, attack helicopters, and unmarked trucks offloading from newly arrived ships. He admits it with ease, framing it as if he was protecting the referendum. (His understands that public memory is faulty; there was no referendum until he invaded.) From the Putin perspective, he feared not only lost leases of those ports and bases, but of NATO and/or the USA with ships sitting in the harbour.

You must understand that there are so-called neo-cons in the Kremlin, too. Unfortunately, since the end of the Medvedev presidency, those ultra nationalist voices have Putin's ear. They are brash and strident and for them, there will never be enough. Most of them did not live in the harsh times of the Soviet oppression and they fantasize about some imaginary and romantic time when Russia will someday be a land of "the Russias," stretching from Estonia to Finland to Moldova to Ukraine and to Poland.

These men are classic incrementalists--they understand that you take, and absorb, sometimes a piece at at time. That is why I easily label those outsiders who believe that giving a little here, and a little there, are simplistic fools to believe that giving up something now will cause them to be satisfied. Instead, it only reaffirms their notions that more can be taken.

Bottom line: if he loses Ukraine, he loses the Eurasian Union. If the loses the Eurasian Union, then Russia will once more be nothing but a gas station at the far north end of the map. The problem then will be that the price of gas, and ostracization from the civilized world, will continue to mire this one-trick economy into the permafrost. At that point the Russian people will not allow him to retire in that massive mansion that was supposedly sold (although it was build on public land) to an unnamed businessman. He will retire in Siberia if he loses the Eurasion Union.

What we must understand is that Putin does not want just part of Ukraine, and especially not the poor coal miners of the East. If the Neville Chamberlain types are fools, as usual, and give him "a piece" of something, then he is an opportunist and will absorb, consolidate, and it won't be long until he comes around again for more.

[jone]

Mendeleyev,

Very impressive piece.  You state your opinion of events in a way that is easy to follow and yet compelling to read.  While I understand your take on the Eurasian Union, it is not possible to put together a future timeline.

Even were Russia to win in Eastern Ukraine and the two complete 'Republics' either gain autonomy or apply to Russia for annexation, it really leaves Putin in a quagmire.

1.  It leaves Ukraine as a permanent enemy.

2.  Without invading Kherson, he does not have a land bridge to Crimea, which, in its current status is almost impossible to maintain. 

3.  It maintains the status quo of the West with sanctions against Russia and (for all practical purposes) keeps Russia out of the G7 and in a pariah status.

4.  Russia's economy continues to 'bleed out' and causes a slow reduction of the standard of living for Russian citizens.

I cannot imagine a timeline going forward, except that Russia would have to create more Donbas situations to continue to stoke the fires at home.  I would assume Kharkiv would be the next target of opportunity.  However, with Ukraine now on full alert, and slowly arming itself, any future target in Ukraine, be it Kharkiv or Kherson and the Odessa region, would spell all out war with Ukraine, heretofore not seen.  Moreover, if Russia keeps moving forward, the West will react with increasingly strident sanctions and possibly a military response.

What a powder keg!

[Taz]

AUSTRALIANS  have fought across all spectres of war ,  several family members have died in ww1 & 2   as well as fought in vietnam .......aussies dont mind a stoush , no gutless wonders here either ,

SX

After the US, Australia is my favorite country that I have never been to (over 71 and counting and next on my list). If I were to ever leave the US it is where I would seriously consider as at least the Aussie leadership has some balls.


As for not minding a stoush, even going back to WWI the Aussies earned a lot of respect. Just look at the ANZAC Corps. I was in Gallipoli, Turkey and paid my respect. The ANZAC Corps fought incredibly bravely against some very serious and overwhelming odds. I would gladly fight with Aussies by my side any day.The Aussies I met in my career definitely earned my respect. They are one of the few countries also calling Islamic terrorism what it truly is as well.


As for the Eurasian Union, if anyone reads very deeply into, you will see what Mendy has posted is right. Read the link I posted upstream. Without Ukraine's manufacturing capability, it really doesn't mean as much. Hell Putin's state of the union speech (so to speak) only had a few lines about this when it was something before he truly wanted to trumpet.

[lordtiberius]

He has to decide to go for broke or wait for more favorable ground like Caesar at Dyrrhachium. 

[Muzh]

The Middle East isn't your continent either..but you were only too quick to get involved in that and ask for help from "gutless wonders "/arrogant and foolish Europeans against the might of the Iraq forces.

But of course oil is involved in that isn't it .

It was noticeable how the first thing USA troops did in Iraq was head for the oil depots..that must be how they missed all those WMD.

LMAO


Not so fast. Not that I'm agreeing with AC since he's pretty much uneducated, but let's not throw stones when you live in a glass house.


You familiar with T.E. Lawrence? Do you know what he was doing in that desert? Do you understand what the British Empire did there?


Yes, the USA went into Iraq to defend its oil interests and some profited shamelessly in the name of patriotism. But, let's not forget who forged the road there, shall we?

[mendeleyev]

Even were Russia to win in Eastern Ukraine and the two complete 'Republics' either gain autonomy or apply to Russia for annexation, it really leaves Putin in a quagmire.

1.  It leaves Ukraine as a permanent enemy.

2.  Without invading Kherson, he does not have a land bridge to Crimea, which, in its current status is almost impossible to maintain. 

3.  It maintains the status quo of the West with sanctions against Russia and (for all practical purposes) keeps Russia out of the G7 and in a pariah status.

4.  Russia's economy continues to 'bleed out' and causes a slow reduction of the standard of living for Russian citizens.

I cannot imagine a timeline going forward, except that Russia would have to create more Donbas situations to continue to stoke the fires at home.  I would assume Kharkiv would be the next target of opportunity.  However, with Ukraine now on full alert, and slowly arming itself, any future target in Ukraine, be it Kharkiv or Kherson and the Odessa region, would spell all out war with Ukraine, heretofore not seen.  Moreover, if Russia keeps moving forward, the West will react with increasingly strident sanctions and possibly a military response.

What a powder keg!

Jone, you are precisely on target.

This is why I have avoided calls for all out war, because we could be closer than we think, and war never goes quite like we imagine. If Father Time is correct about one thing, it is this: somehow we must find a diplomatic "release valve" to allow Putin a way to step back from the brink. However it would be very foolish to give him a chunk of anything because that opens the door, and he will walk through it, to come back soon for more. He reads people, and events, in an uncanny way. He is a type A personality of the strain that views compromise as weakness, and he has made a career of exploiting weakness. It is in his DNA.

There are those in the shadows of the Kremlin who must be convinced that they must pull him back from the brink. They can do it, but not without great risk to themselves, and so the West must (and I believe there are ongoing back-channel communications) find the carrot and stick to make them act in their best interests.

Unchecked, or awarded with territory for his efforts, he will go after Kharkiv and most certainly Odessa. He views Odessa as nothing more than a lost Russian territory that must be reclaimed. It would also cut off Ukraine from the Black Sea, and thus all the naval and oil/mineral deposits therein, claimed by Ukraine will instead be Russia's.

[mendeleyev]

Without Ukraine's manufacturing capability, it really doesn't mean as much.

Thank you, Taz. That is exactly the case, and also the population base of Ukraine far outnumbers all the other Eurasian members, except for Russia itself. The Union cannot be a consumer force, nor a production power, without Ukraine. Also, Ukraine rivals ALL the other Union members in agricultural potential--that is extremely important for the Union.

[Taz]

Jone, you are precisely on target.

This is why I have avoided calls for all out war, because we could be closer than we think, and war never goes quite like we imagine. If Father Time is correct about one thing, it is this: somehow we must find a diplomatic "release valve" to allow Putin a way to step back from the brink. However it would be very foolish to give him a chunk of anything because that opens the door, and he will walk through it, to come back soon for more. He reads people, and events, in an uncanny way. He is a type A personality of the strain that views compromise as weakness, and he has made a career of exploiting weakness. It is in his DNA.

There are those in the shadows of the Kremlin who must be convinced that they must pull him back from the brink. They can do it, but not without great risk to themselves, and so the West must (and I believe there are ongoing back-channel communications) find the carrot and stick to make them act in their best interests.

Unchecked, or awarded with territory for his efforts, he will go after Kharkiv and most certainly Odessa. He views Odessa as nothing more than a lost Russian territory that must be reclaimed. It would also cut off Ukraine from the Black Sea, and thus all the naval and oil/mineral deposits therein, claimed by Ukraine will instead be Russia's.

This is what I've maintained as well, that Putin needs a way to save face. If I were Ukraine I would also start to make the road to Crimea as difficult at possible. I would seriously reinforce the "Crimean Highway" to the point that Putin wouldn't think twice but 20 times before going down that path.


Make it so expensive to go that route that the loss of Russian life would be nothing like he has seen in his lifetime. If he goes this route there will be no doubt it will all out war anyway. He can't do this by stealth. There needs to be a UN resolution regarding this as well. Let the rest of the world call him out on it as it is so obvious. If there weren't so many civilians in the area I would mine the snot out of it. At a minimum set up defensive positions now.

[BillyB]

Even were Russia to win in Eastern Ukraine and the two complete 'Republics' either gain autonomy or apply to Russia for annexation, it really leaves Putin in a quagmire.

1.  It leaves Ukraine as a permanent enemy.

Why do you believe Putin only want's to stop at East Ukraine when Kiev, the control center of Ukraine, is right next door? Installation of a new puppet president will get Ukraine to be a friend again regardless if the majority doesn't like it. Russia did it before, they can do it again.

He is a type A personality of the strain that views compromise as weakness, and he has made a career of exploiting weakness. It is in his DNA.

And that is why NATO should have shown overwhelming force in the beginning. That would stop Putin before he would start anything. Instead we go with sanctions. The longer we wait and show weakness, the uglier it's going to get when trying to eject Russian soldiers out of Ukraine.

[Muzh]

Why do you believe Putin only want's to stop at East Ukraine when Kiev, the control center of Ukraine, is right next door? Installation of a new puppet president will get Ukraine to be a friend again regardless if the majority doesn't like it. Russia did it before, they can do it again.




And that is why NATO should have shown overwhelming force in the beginning. That would stop Putin before he would start anything. Instead we go with sanctions. The longer we wait and show weakness, the uglier it's going to get when trying to eject Russian soldiers out of Ukraine.

[AC]

nah , no confusion here AC,
brass was spot on with his summary , as was bo , the far right have support across many countries via russia , so afaic there vote is bought by putin

AUSTRALIANS  have fought across all spectres of war ,  several family members have died in ww1 & 2   as well as fought in vietnam .......aussies dont mind a stoush , no gutless wonders here either ,

SX

You missed the intent of my post.  The far right in Europe is on the exact opposite of this issue as the far right in the USA.  Additionally right wing parties in the USA certainly do not get any funding from Russia.  Had nothing to do with whether or not Aussies fought in various wars.  I am not the one who made the "gutless wonders" comment, that was calmissile. 

In other words there were two parts to my post, perhaps I should have specified that.  I also agree with poster Brass's summary (first part of my post).  2nd part of my post was directed at the statement made by Boethius.

[Taz]

We all need to be realistic here. Putin only understands one thing; FORCE! It either needs to economic or military force (or a combination of both) used against him to reign him in. If you don't apply enough economic force (sanctions, etc.) then you'll need to use more military force to compensate.


I am all for ratcheting up sanctions and doing it quickly. Cut off his money and it will be harder to wage war against his neighbors. Now that he cracked open his main piggy bank to try and defend the ruble again he is even more vulnerable. Crank up oil production even more and get oil to $20-30 a barrel or so. He can't survive this level for long. While it will hurt some US businesses in the short term, long term it will only help the US.


Don't slowly turn the screws against Putin, it gives him more time to find a way out. Do the equivalent of shock and awe to his financial, defense and energy sectors. He'll get the message much more quickly. The way to stop a bully is punch him in the nose as hard as you can. I learned that in the 5th grade and have dispatched quite a few bullies since then.

[lordtiberius]

Why do you believe Putin only want's to stop at East Ukraine when Kiev, the control center of Ukraine, is right next door? Installation of a new puppet president will get Ukraine to be a friend again regardless if the majority doesn't like it. Russia did it before, they can do it again.




And that is why NATO should have shown overwhelming force in the beginning. That would stop Putin before he would start anything. Instead we go with sanctions. The longer we wait and show weakness, the uglier it's going to get when trying to eject Russian soldiers out of Ukraine.

We all need to be realistic here. Putin only understands one thing; FORCE! It either needs to economic or military force (or a combination of both) used against him to reign him in. If you don't apply enough economic force (sanctions, etc.) then you'll need to use more military force to compensate.


I am all for ratcheting up sanctions and doing it quickly. Cut off his money and it will be harder to wage war against his neighbors. Now that he cracked open his main piggy bank to try and defend the ruble again he is even more vulnerable. Crank up oil production even more and get oil to $20-30 a barrel or so. He can't survive this level for long. While it will hurt some US businesses in the short term, long term it will only help the US.


Don't slowly turn the screws against Putin, it gives him more time to find a way out. Do the equivalent of shock and awe to his financial, defense and energy sectors. He'll get the message much more quickly. The way to stop a bully is punch him in the nose as hard as you can. I learned that in the 5th grade and have dispatched quite a few bullies since then.

This is all true.

[fathertime]

Jone, you are precisely on target.

This is why I have avoided calls for all out war, because we could be closer than we think, and war never goes quite like we imagine. If Father Time is correct about one thing, it is this: somehow we must find a diplomatic "release valve" to allow Putin a way to step back from the brink. However it would be very foolish to give him a chunk of anything because that opens the door, and he will walk through it, to come back soon for more. He reads people, and events, in an uncanny way. He is a type A personality of the strain that views compromise as weakness, and he has made a career of exploiting weakness. It is in his DNA.
 

Well Mendeleyev we shall see what it takes....Putin is going to have to get something out of this, those that somehow magically think everything is going to get stuffed back up Russia's  rear end are likely mistaken....i believe.


Fathertime!   

[Taz]

FT- He already got Crimea. What more does he need?

[fathertime]

What we must understand is that Putin does not want just part of Ukraine, and especially not the poor coal miners of the East. If the Neville Chamberlain types are fools, as usual, and give him "a piece" of something, then he is an opportunist and will absorb, consolidate, and it won't be long until he comes around again for more.

Hi Mendeleyev,


I think that having a real negotiation and being clear about the costs of future incursions is a good start.  Then fortifying at risk areas is a good second step.  Step 3 would be following through with a battle/war. 
Every time nations negotiate it doesn't have to be a Neville Chamberlain moment....that was a moment in time in history...the events and consequences are different in this particular case.  I'd say drive a hard bargain, but give Russia something, if for no reason other than to end the current crisis before it goes too far, and the consequences are felt worldwide....although they probably feel they have a legit case, in which case they feel 'right' too....

FT- He already got Crimea. What more does he need?

Don't know Taz...I imagine the people that should be negotiating this mess should have an idea of what it will take.... 


Fathertime!

[lordtiberius]

That's a cop out.

[AC]

Nor are you accurately reporting that those on the right like Senator Rand Paul oppose Ukrainian aid . .

He is a fringe person and is not representative of the majority.  My quote is accurate as it was made.  You like to read into things too much which is why you're constantly arguing with BillyB.

[lordtiberius]

More evidence of flaws in your "analysis"
http://cnnpressroom.blogs.cnn.com/2015/01/18/sen-murphy-send-military-assistance-to-ukraine/

This democrat senator agrees with McCain