Poroshenko claims Ukraine is now being offered weapons by NATO.

[lordtiberius]

 By Brasscassing's analysis, Ukraine only needs a cash infusion to pay workers to refit existing stockpiles for war service.

Billy, Poland is a NATO member, if they deploy troops in defense of Ukraine, we have to be there.  And if you are going to ruffle your feathers at NATO members, get mad at Canada.  They are doing more to assist Ukraine than any of us.

[JayH]

Wonderful. Some would say Poland is a hero if they supplied Ukraine with those arms and spare parts, others would say they are stupid. It would be those type of actions that may get Poland in trouble with Russia and NATO would have to come to Poland's aid. NATO may not be looking for war(trouble) but war(trouble) may come looking for them.

.

BB--you have not relented on your doomsday theme-now you mention Poland.Previously you harped on about Nato members not being willing or capable of responding.Of all the Nato member countries Poland is easily the best prepared-in fact they moved over 20,000 combat ready troops into position last year as the Russian threat in Ukraiine emerged.
Also of note--the Poles think they have a few historic scores to settle-and along with their Ukrainian brothers in arms-would be a highly motivated force as well as well trained.If the crisis widens and if there are to be welcomed foreign troops on Ukrainian soil it is almost certain that they would be Polish.
Another example of why your sweeping generalisations are misguided.

[AC]

By Brasscassing's analysis, Ukraine only needs a cash infusion to pay workers to refit existing stockpiles for war service.

Billy, Poland is a NATO member, if they deploy troops in defense of Ukraine, we have to be there.  And if you are going to ruffle your feathers at NATO members, get mad at Canada.  They are doing more to assist Ukraine than any of us.

Did he say that only a cash infusion was needed to pay workers?  I don't recall him saying that although he may have implied it.

Let's look at that particular graveyard of tanks.  It's got 400 tanks there.  Back when the Soviets were in control the full time mechanics working there were able to work on 50 tanks a month.  So if they had the full time mechanics working there (I'm sure they could get them) and if they had all the parts then it would take 8 months to get those 400 working, if everything went perfectly.

[Brasscasing]

Very interesting article and analysis, thanks.  Are you saying that the Russians need to have a numerical superiority of 3 to 1 or more to take territory, or that they already have it?

My guess is that they have numerical superiority in the range of 5 to 1 or better, in regards to fully operational tanks.

In so far as whatever the operation was the advantage of numerical superiority would be a factor in launching an offensive.

It depends on the (Russian) military district's armored units. They might relocate units from other districts but my guess would be whatever that district's available resources are is what would be potentially deployed.

Brass

[BillyB]

BB--you have not relented on your doomsday theme-

Also of note--the Poles think they have a few historic scores to settle-and along with their Ukrainian brothers in arms-would be a highly motivated force as well as well trained.If the crisis widens and if there are to be welcomed foreign troops on Ukrainian soil it is almost certain that they would be Polish.

You don't believe a doomsday scenario is possible but you think Poland, a NATO member, is motivated to jump into the fight for personal reasons? Think about what I been posting lately. World war becomes more likely.

[JayH]

You don't believe a doomsday scenario is possible but you think Poland, a NATO member, is motivated to jump into the fight for personal reasons? Think about what I been posting lately. World war becomes more likely.

BB--maybe you missed what I have been saying---in the event of a Russian setback--it is more likely than not that Putin will escalate rather than going into his shell.
Depending on the degree of escalation--chances are Ukraine will get help from the "west".

What you are disputing is the capability of the west to handle Russia in a military sense--to which my response is -- that escalation will not only lead to the removal of Russia from the mainland Ukraine-but eventually out of Crimea .

[Chelseaboy]

Thanks for the replies CM and Jay .

Looks like i was being fed duff gen by the girls 

[AC]

BB--maybe you missed what I have been saying---in the event of a Russian setback--it is more likely than not that Putin will escalate rather than going into his shell.
Depending on the degree of escalation--chances are Ukraine will get help from the "west".

What you are disputing is the capability of the west to handle Russia in a military sense--to which my response is -- that escalation will not only lead to the removal of Russia from the mainland Ukraine-but eventually out of Crimea .

I've never heard Billy dispute that the West aka NATO can handle Putin.  He is saying that Poland is not going to rush into Ukraine willy nilly.  They are prepared but I'm sure that diplomacy is the first choice. 

Again nothing in article 5 obligates any NATO member to help Ukraine on Ukrainian soil.

[BillyB]

escalation will not only lead to the removal of Russia from the mainland Ukraine-but eventually out of Crimea .

That's what I've been saying but Russia losing territory won't happen until America's mainland army shows up. NATO with America can handle Russia. I seriously doubt the current punishment the West is administering on Russia is going to make Putin leave Ukraine, apologize and ask Obama to be let back in the circle of friends. Where does that leave us? Guys with big egos aren't going to back down. Escalation may be the only way to go.

[JayH]

As an aside and as a curiosity, what needs to be remembered is that before and for quite a while after the fall of the USSR Ukraine was the 'arsenal' of the Russian military machine.

It was Ukraine's factories rebuilding the t-72s to t-80, 84 specs and apparently, I say apparently because I can't confirm the following images as the location the photographer purports to have taken them, these factories were simply left to rot after closure.

Brass

The graveyard photos have been confirmed from a few sources. In fact-- there are a number of places all over Ukraine where large numbers have been stored.
The problem was/is that most had not been touched in over 20 years-- and while some did just start up immediately--getting them combat ready is another issue altogether.
When the first attempts were made to use the tanks( and other machines) there were no enough mechanics and tech people to do the work-- so they started recruiting workers and tracking those previously involved in the maintenance and building processes.
It has improved in a time sense--but there are still not enough skilled workers --but my guess is they are getting a lot of exposure and are learning fast!!
They were certainly returning damaged tanks from the east for repair and to salvage parts during last year.

[AC]

That's what I've been saying but Russia losing territory won't happen until America's mainland army shows up. NATO with America can handle Russia. I seriously doubt the current punishment the West is administering on Russia is going to make Putin leave Ukraine, apologize and ask Obama to be let back in the circle of friends. Where does that leave us? Guys with big egos aren't going to back down. Escalation may be the only way to go.

If the sanctions and dropping oil price hurt Russia's economy enough hopefully he is going to decide against any further incursions into Ukraine and he might even pull his troops out.

He does have a huge ego though so likely he will continue to look for his opportunity.  This may allow Ukraine the time they need to get their military fully prepared.  Weapons from the West is still a must in that equation.

[JayH]

That's what I've been saying but Russia losing territory won't happen until America's mainland army shows up. NATO with America can handle Russia. I seriously doubt the current punishment the West is administering on Russia is going to make Putin leave Ukraine, apologize and ask Obama to be let back in the circle of friends. Where does that leave us? Guys with big egos aren't going to back down. Escalation may be the only way to go.

BB--LT took exception to my comments previously on this--but in essence--I will repeat them.
Give Ukraine the help they need and  US ground troops as such would not be needed-- sure-send advisors and training to assist(the exception and addition I would like to see are special forces from   US,UK,Canada,Australia etc plus the back up they need).
When I say help Ukraine-- Air Cover,Intelligence,Weapons,Logistics-- then Ukrainian troops  can do the job .
Given the generally unacceptable to the US public idea of losing fighting troops lives on foreign soil the chances are that it would be more palatable to the US public if it looked more like the scenario I have painted here.
I also mentioned earlier--Poland has solid numbers of combat troops on standby already-- and only hours from the front.
So once again BB-- I don't agree with you.

[lordtiberius]

You don't believe a doomsday scenario is possible but you think Poland, a NATO member, is motivated to jump into the fight for personal reasons? Think about what I been posting lately. World war becomes more likely.

Look, logically your argument is sound if the facts you possess are true.  They are not.  But the one logically fallacy is that on one hand you say NATO is not doing enough and then when NATO members do step up, you say they are provoking World War 3.  You can't have it both ways Billy B.

[calmissile]

BB--LT took exception to my comments previously on this--but in essence--I will repeat them.
Give Ukraine the help they need and  US ground troops as such would not be needed-- sure-send advisors and training to assist(the exception and addition I would like to see are special forces from   US,UK,Canada,Australia etc plus the back up they need).
When I say help Ukraine-- Air Cover,Intelligence,Weapons,Logistics-- then Ukrainian troops  can do the job .
Given the generally unacceptable to the US public idea of losing fighting troops lives on foreign soil the chances are that it would be more palatable to the US public if it looked more like the scenario I have painted here.
I also mentioned earlier--Poland has solid numbers of combat troops on standby already-- and only hours from the front.
So once again BB-- I don't agree with you.

Agree with one exception.  Use US air power in E. Ukraine.  The same strategy we used on Baghdad.  With US air power, we would wipe out the radars and BUKS within a day or two, knock off a few tanks just for fun, and then let the Ukrainian ground troops wipe out the infantry and clean up the dead bodies.  If Putin wants to send some MIG's over we can use them for target practice.

Putin is not going to escalate this by using even tactical nukes.  He has far too much to lose for the gains he thinks E. Ukraine is worth.

[JayH]

Agree with one exception.  Use US air power in E. Ukraine.  The same strategy we used on Baghdad.  With US air power, we would wipe out the radars and BUKS within a day or two, knock off a few tanks just for fun, and then let the Ukrainian ground troops wipe out the infantry and clean up the dead bodies.  If Putin wants to send some MIG's over we can use them for target practice.

Putin is not going to escalate this by using even tactical nukes.  He has far too much to lose for the gains he thinks E. Ukraine is worth.

I should have said "air power"-- I was including that in air cover general description.It is essential and crucial part of defeating Russia.

I would go one step further-- I would tell the Russians-- anything emanating/launched from Russia- that source base would be a no holes barred target---ie aircraft taking off and entering UKR airspace,missiles launched-even a rifle shot !

the only language a bully will understand is when it is made clear he is going to be on the losing end--no matter what bluff he attempts.  Call it--and raise it.

[lordtiberius]

BB--maybe you missed what I have been saying---in the event of a Russian setback--it is more likely than not that Putin will escalate rather than going into his shell.
Depending on the degree of escalation--chances are Ukraine will get help from the "west".

What you are disputing is the capability of the west to handle Russia in a military sense--to which my response is -- that escalation will not only lead to the removal of Russia from the mainland Ukraine-but eventually out of Crimea .

I keep bringing up nukes because I think Putin will use them to save his own skin.

[lordtiberius]

BB--LT took exception to my comments previously on this--but in essence--I will repeat them.

The time for US intervention has long since left the harbor. 

The best thing we can do is underwrite Ukraine's war expenses.  We can do this by giving them loans so they can use existing technologies in their arsenal and get them to 100% and we could loan them surplus technologies at our depots.  We could set up refurbishing facilities in Poland and Slovakia so Ukraine could fight their own war.  It will need funding in the billions not millions of dollars.  But with this Ukraine can march on Moscow.

[JayH]

I keep bringing up nukes because I think Putin will use them to save his own skin.

Maybe when the writing is on the wall over Crimea?

Maybe when he has his back to the wall-- and he has convinced the Russian population that those dreaded Ukrainian Nazis are on the march to Moscow!!

Putin and his Kremlin cronies are crazy enough-I hope we never find out how crazy they really  are.

[BillyB]

If the sanctions and dropping oil price hurt Russia's economy enough hopefully he is going to decide against any further incursions into Ukraine and he might even pull his troops out.

I doubt Putin is going to give Obama and the West what we're hoping for. Sanctions didn't work against smaller nations. I doubt Putin will allow them to work on him. Some believe money and a good economy is necessary for Russia to build a strong military but there were many decades the West didn't do business with the USSR yet they built a military rivaled only by America's.


Putin has ambitions of conquest. Putin feels NATO is a threat and in his way of his ambitions. Putin would like to dismantle NATO. Before NATO, there was an organization called the League of Nations who had a similar agenda which is to maintain world peace. A world war spelled the end for the League of Nations. Putin may test NATO by walking into one of it's less valuable member's territory to prove they won't back each other up when things get tough. If Putin can crack NATO, he may be able to dismantle it.


America and the UK accused Russia of violating the Budapest memorandum they all signed but America and the UK didn't honor their obligations either after Ukraine was attacked. Putin sees these weaknesses and other weaknesses from dysfunctional NATO missions and these weaknesses can only encourage Putin to go after his goals knowing he'd be met with little resistance.

Give Ukraine the help they need and  US ground troops as such would not be needed--

I'm all for helping Ukraine but I don't think Putin will allow America/NATO win a proxy war in his back yard. I don't think Ukraine could do it alone and Putin will be wise to do a quick invasion and get it over with before letting the Ukraine military get geared up with modern weapons.

When I say help Ukraine-- Air Cover,Intelligence,Weapons,Logistics-- then Ukrainian troops  can do the job .

Unless we declare war, air cover is out. We can provide all kinds of assistance to Ukraine for a proxy war but once we shoot or bomb Russian soldiers, it changes the ball game.

on one hand you say NATO is not doing enough and then when NATO members do step up, you say they are provoking World War 3.  You can't have it both ways Billy B.

Performing an action may be good or bad simply by the timing. The League of Nations/Allies didn't do enough to stop Hitler in the beginning when Hitler annexed two nations and when they did step in, it was too late and next thing you know, world war. Timing is important when making decisions. Stepping up and stopping Hitler early would have been better than stepping up late.
 

NATO didn't do enough in the beginning to discourage Putin so Putin has gotten himself more involved in this crisis thinking he can get away with it just as Hitler believed he will get away with a lot. Now, because it's late, if one or more NATO members get involved with Russia, it can trigger world war.


If NATO initially showed unity through flexing their military strength, it could discourage Putin from proceeding knowing that we could punish him by military means instead of sanctions but now he's in to deep to back out. Putin is smart. He knows the West doesn't have the stomach to fight and he will use that to his advantage. He has already used that to his advantage.


You may not agree with everything I say but I can assure you Putin and his generals have already played out every scenario in an economic war, proxy war, to a world war, and their odds of Russia winning and losing. They have factored in what they can and can't get away with and what  the cost would be of anything they do. If Putin feels the rewards are greater than the risks, he will proceed to go after the rewards.  Putin thinks he's got control of the situation. Obama thinks he's got control. I think somebody will lose control.

Putin is not going to escalate this by using even tactical nukes. 

Putin will threaten to use them to discourage the West from getting militarily involved with what he's doing in Ukraine. Most likely he will only use them for defensive purposes should the West ever think about entering Russia. He's going to make sure the West understands he will never lose Russia under his watch.

[lordtiberius]

You may not agree with everything I say but I can assure you Putin and his generals have already played out every scenario in an economic war, proxy war, to a world war, and their odds of Russia winning and losing. They have factored in what they can and can't get away with and what  the cost would be of anything they do.

Again, you are overestimating this man.

[fathertime]

I'm all for helping Ukraine but I don't think Putin will allow America/NATO win a proxy war in his back yard. 

BINGO!!!! 

. Now, because it's late, if one or more NATO members get involved with Russia, it can trigger world war.

YAHTZEE!!!!!

You may not agree with everything I say but I can assure you Putin and his generals have already played out every scenario in an economic war, proxy war, to a world war, and their odds of Russia winning and losing. They have factored in what they can and can't get away with and what  the cost would be of anything they do. If Putin feels the rewards are greater than the risks, he will proceed to go after the rewards.  Putin thinks he's got control of the situation. Obama thinks he's got control. I think somebody will lose control.

BINGO AND YAHTZEE!   Great post overall BillyB, I agree with most every logical point you made.


Fathertime!

[lordtiberius]

Well, that says something.

[AC]

The best thing we can do is underwrite Ukraine's war expenses.  We can do this by giving them loans so they can use existing technologies in their arsenal and get them to 100% and we could loan them surplus technologies at our depots.  We could set up refurbishing facilities in Poland and Slovakia so Ukraine could fight their own war.  It will need funding in the billions not millions of dollars.  But with this Ukraine can march on Moscow.

The part I bolded will never happen.  Ukraine is not a war monger.

[calmissile]

Talk vs Action (yesterday towards Lugansk)
http://tsn.ua/bin/player/embed.php/384057460

Just had a funny thought while watching the video....
A Ukrainian peasant attaches a GPS tracking device onto one of the tanks. 
Enter GPS coordinates in Fire Control Computer and presto...
Problem solved.       

[southernX]

I doubt Putin is going to give Obama and the West what we're hoping for. Sanctions didn't work against smaller nations. I doubt Putin will allow them to work on him. Some believe money and a good economy is necessary for Russia to build a strong military but there were many decades the West didn't do business with the USSR yet they built a military rivaled only by America's.


Putin has ambitions of conquest. Putin feels NATO is a threat and in his way of his ambitions. Putin would like to dismantle NATO. Before NATO, there was an organization called the League of Nations who had a similar agenda which is to maintain world peace. A world war spelled the end for the League of Nations. Putin may test NATO by walking into one of it's less valuable member's territory to prove they won't back each other up when things get tough. If Putin can crack NATO, he may be able to dismantle it.


America and the UK accused Russia of violating the Budapest memorandum they all signed but America and the UK didn't honor their obligations either after Ukraine was attacked. Putin sees these weaknesses and other weaknesses from dysfunctional NATO missions and these weaknesses can only encourage Putin to go after his goals knowing he'd be met with little resistance.



I'm all for helping Ukraine but I don't think Putin will allow America/NATO win a proxy war in his back yard. I don't think Ukraine could do it alone and Putin will be wise to do a quick invasion and get it over with before letting the Ukraine military get geared up with modern weapons.



Unless we declare war, air cover is out. We can provide all kinds of assistance to Ukraine for a proxy war but once we shoot or bomb Russian soldiers, it changes the ball game.



Performing an action may be good or bad simply by the timing. The League of Nations/Allies didn't do enough to stop Hitler in the beginning when Hitler annexed two nations and when they did step in, it was too late and next thing you know, world war. Timing is important when making decisions. Stepping up and stopping Hitler early would have been better than stepping up late.
 

NATO didn't do enough in the beginning to discourage Putin so Putin has gotten himself more involved in this crisis thinking he can get away with it just as Hitler believed he will get away with a lot. Now, because it's late, if one or more NATO members get involved with Russia, it can trigger world war.


If NATO initially showed unity through flexing their military strength, it could discourage Putin from proceeding knowing that we could punish him by military means instead of sanctions but now he's in to deep to back out. Putin is smart. He knows the West doesn't have the stomach to fight and he will use that to his advantage. He has already used that to his advantage.


You may not agree with everything I say but I can assure you Putin and his generals have already played out every scenario in an economic war, proxy war, to a world war, and their odds of Russia winning and losing. They have factored in what they can and can't get away with and what  the cost would be of anything they do. If Putin feels the rewards are greater than the risks, he will proceed to go after the rewards.  Putin thinks he's got control of the situation. Obama thinks he's got control. I think somebody will lose control.




Putin will threaten to use them to discourage the West from getting militarily involved with what he's doing in Ukraine. Most likely he will only use them for defensive purposes should the West ever think about entering Russia. He's going to make sure the West understands he will never lose Russia under his watch.

good post billy b
have to agree with you on most of it
unfortunatly i dont see mr putin stepping back either , he will dig in & sacrifice whatever it takes  , money , people etc, he is KGB to the bone imo

SX