RUSSIA-The Future 2015 & on

[JayH]

Given so much potential for change in Russia itself in the immediate future I thought it appropriate to have it's own thread,-- Some  articles on current situation--

Can Anything Save the Ruble?

Vladimir Putin has some ideas to help the struggling Russian economy. None of them are going to work.
Earlier this year, Russia’s central bank took heroic measures to prop up the ruble. It spent $40 billion of its foreign reserves between January and May — about 8 percent of the total at the time — on its own currency in order to raise the ruble’s price in global markets. Then, though the ruble continued to slip, the central bank was quiet … for month


http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/12/05/can-anything-save-the-ruble-russia-economy-putin-oil/

[JayH]

One of the issues that could lead to substantial change of Russia itself.


How Russia’s Sinking Economy Could Provoke Unrest on Its Doorstep

Even as Russian consumers find the value of their rubles shrinking and consumer goods harder to find, there is a flip side to the contraction, one that has potentially significant ramifications for Russia’s volatile domestic politics. Since the first week of January, labor migration into Russia — mostly from Central Asia and the Caucasus — has dropped 70 percent compared to the same period last year, according to data released by Russia’s official Federal Migration Service. That could be a boon for Russia’s vocal, xenophobic, and occasionally violent nationalist movement, which wants many of those immigrants to go home.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/01/12/how-russias-sinking-economy-could-provoke-unrest-on-its-doorstep/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_term=%2AEditors%20Picks&utm_campaign=2014_EditorsPicks1%2F12RS

[JayH]

Another nail in the coffin?Falling apart on every front?


Putin’s Dream Of A Russian NHL Collapsing As His Economy Tanks

...
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s love of the bravado and machismo of hockey is well known. He personally took in games at the 2014 Winter Olympics, glowering when the star-studded Russian team was bounced, and was in the locker room celebrating when Russia won the Ice Hockey World Championships in May. Putin often talks of turning Russia’s Kontinental Hockey League, widely considered the second best league in the world behind the National Hockey League, into the world’s best.

Now, it’s Putin’s bravado and machismo that are threatening to destroy the KHL. In the past, he’s offered star players like Ilya Kovalchuk big contracts to lure them away from America and Canada. But because of Russia’s economic problems stemming from Putin’s action in Ukraine and low oil prices, some of the league’s 22 teams can’t pay their players or coaches. Putin’s dreams of growing the league internationally are collapsing.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/12/29/putins-dream-of-a-russian-nhl-collapsing-as-his-economy-tanks/

[lordtiberius]

So, Jay, umm, do you think the Russian President will order his 20 armoured divisions into Germany, win win?

[JayH]

So, Jay, umm, do you think the Russian President will order his 20 armoured divisions into Germany, win win?

LT--I think that issue has been covered?
My guess is that Putin's dream of resurrecting the Soviet Union is very dead idea now-- even his Customs union is being reconsidered  by the various governments and they  looking at Russia with great caution now.
Now doubt that Ukraine is in for a battle( in every sense of the word) to free itself of  Russia. The biggest ally could well prove to be the Russian economy collapsing that could lead to a new direction in Russia.
Putin and Russia are on borrowed time right now-- the big question is-- do they realise?

[lordtiberius]

Just be absolutely clear, do you think the Russians have 20 armored divisions by which they can launch a blitzkrieg against Ukraine or NATO?  Yes or No

[JayH]

Just be absolutely clear, do you think the Russians have 20 armored divisions by which they can launch a blitzkrieg against Ukraine or NATO?  Yes or No

mmm  dont know if it is 20---  but to answer the second part  highlighted in red-- No-- not today-only capable of limited attack-- and nothing like Putins bragging.
They have amassed considerable numbers on Russian side of the border ( as well as numbers already in Ukraine)  as well as Crimea.
The biggest issue for Ukrainians is that the later Russian tanks are quite superior in all round sense.

[JayH]

This story  is a little dated in calender time--but totally current in conclusions--it makes interesting reading with the benefit of hindsight.

How to Beat Down a Bully
There's only one way to stop Putin's ugly new doctrine of irregular intervention -- hit back even harder.

The international community is at long last beginning to take a strong stand against Moscow’s aggression in eastern Ukraine. There is solid evidence indicating not only that Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was shot down by Russian-aided rebels in eastern Ukraine, but that the Kremlin has bolstered the rebels with heavy artillery despite toughened Western sanctions. Moreover, Russia has massed over 45,000 soldiers near the eastern Ukrainian border, who are poised to undertake a "humanitarian operation." The large convoy of trucks Russia is sending to aid rebel-held Lugansk could prove to be a thinly disguised Trojan horse, setting off a major showdown once it arrives at the border.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/08/16/how-to-beat-down-a-bully/

[JayH]

Russia’s New Direction for Its Armed Forces

 12 January 2015

In the coming years, regardless of the economic crisis, Russia will be aiming to renew its armed forces.
The modernisation of its conventional forces, which have to be better prepared to respond to
asymmetric threats, especially in its neighbourhood, and of its nuclear forces, which remain a pillar of
the country’s strategic deterrence component, will continue. According to the latest version of the
country’s military doctrine, the strategic importance of the Arctic and Black seas will also increase. An
increase in investment in the modernisation of the country’s military-industrial complex to fulfil these
upgrade plans should also be expected.


http://www.pism.pl/files/?id_plik=19040

[lordtiberius]

Can you really modernize your force while in a war and in a state of hyperinflation?

[JayH]

Can you really modernize your force while in a war and in a state of hyperinflation?

Putin will starve Russians before he relents on his crazy ideas.

[JayH]

Increased sanctions--the noose is tightening! I really want to hear from those who tried to tell us all that sanctions would have no affect on Russia!

Members of the European Parliament agreed on a resolution on Ukraine.
Більше читайте тут: http://tsn.ua/politika/yevroparlament-pogodiv-posilennya-sankciy-proti-rosiyi-402578.html

The European Parliament approved the resolution on the situation in Ukraine, which provides for tougher sanctions against Russia. The document states that if any further action to destabilize Russia Ukraine, the European Parliament European Council proposes to extend sanctions on nuclear sector and limit the ability of Russian companies to conduct international financial transactions, reports UNN . The European Parliament also calls on the EU to maintain restrictive measures against Russian separatists and individuals responsible for destabilizing the situation in the Donbas as long as Russia starts to fully respect and fulfill their obligations Minsky and will not change his course of action in Ukraine
Більше читайте тут: http://tsn.ua/politika/yevroparlament-pogodiv-posilennya-sankciy-proti-rosiyi-402578.html

[JayH]

The depths of Putins miscalculations is nowhere more evident than looking at his failed attempts to use gas supply as a weapon-- and in due course will lose the market to the west.
Combined with the collapse of the oil price(plus the sanctions) it is leading to a depression in Russia.Has history ever seen a bigger overestimation of one's own importance than Putin and Russia?

Why Europe no longer fears the Russian gasman

A MILD winter and robust European Union policy have blunted the edge of what was once Vladimir Putin’s most effective foreign-policy weapon: the politicised export of gas. Contrary to some expectations, Russian gas has been flowing to Europe across all four main export pipelines this winter, while the Kremlin’s flagship new pipeline project, South Stream, has come to a mysterious and embarrassing end. Now the focus is on the EU to see if it will push ahead with the prosecution of Gazprom, Russia’s main gas exporter, for years of anti-competitive practices. Why has Russia lost its hold on European gas?
http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2015/01/economist-explains-2

[JayH]

Bloomberg: Oil drops below $45; US stockpiles may speed collapse

Oil fell below $45 a barrel amid speculation that U.S. stockpiles will increase, exacerbating a global supply glut that’s driven prices to the lowest in more than 5 1/2 years.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-13/oil-drops-from-5-1-2-year-low-as-u-s-supply-seen-adding-to-glut.html

[JayH]

A summary of corruption--
How Russia does business in the Putin era

Comrade Capitalism
A REUTERS INVESTIGATION

Billion-dollar medical project helped fund “Putin’s palace” on the Black Sea

Part 1: Two associates of President Vladimir Putin profited from a state scheme to buy expensive medical equipment - and sent money to Swiss bank accounts linked to a property known as “Putin’s palace.” FULL STORY
 
When Putin ordered up new hospitals, his associates botched the operation

Part 2: The president’s allies won contracts to build new medical centres across Russia. They failed, and the project hit $700 million in cost overruns. FULL STORY
 
Russian Railways paid billions of dollars to secretive private companies

Part 3: The state-owned rail giant, run by an old friend of President Vladimir Putin, has awarded vast sums to contractors who disguise their ownership, a Reuters investigation finds. FULL STORY
 
In murky Pentagon deal with Russia, big profit for a tiny Florida firm

Part 4: The Air Force relies on rocket engines made by a company overseen by associates of Vladimir Putin. Documents show a U.S.-Russian middleman stands to make $93 million on the contract. FULL STORY
 
Putin’s allies channelled billions to oligarch who backed pro-Russian president of Ukraine

Part 5: Russian bank granted huge loans to Dmitry Firtash, whose business empire boomed under Viktor Yanukovich. FULL STORY
 
How a 29-year-old Ukrainian tycoon made a killing on Russian gas

Part 6: Serhiy Kurchenko, who is suspected of acting on behalf of the former Moscow-backed president of Ukraine, gained $100 million on gas supplied at a preferential rate. FULL STORY
 
Opaque middlemen exact high price in Russia’s deals with the West

Part 7: Some major Western firms sell life-saving medical equipment to Russia via obscure intermediaries who bump up prices. It means Russian citizens pay over the odds and big profits disappear offshore. FULL STORY
 
Crunch time: As sanctions bite, Putin ally gets into apples

Part 8: When Russia recently banned imports of some foreign fruit and other foods, it was seen as retaliation against Western sanctions. The move will also benefit a venture by one of the president’s long-standing supporters. FULL STORY
 
For many Russians, a growing list of problems – but not with Putin

Part 9: Russia has boomed under President Vladimir Putin, but many Russians have missed out on the improvements and complain that basic amenities are poorly built or non-existent. Will a looming recession hurt his support? FULL STORY
 
About the series

After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia became a wild east in which communist central planning was supplanted by crude, free-wheeling capitalism. FULL STORY
Thomsonreuters.com Privacy Policy Terms of Use Copyright

http://www.reuters.com/investigates/section/comrade-capitalism/

READ IN CONJUNCTION  WITH THIS___
The very detailed one-hour Frontline examination of Putin's corruption that came out yesterday:

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/putins-way/

[JayH]

Comrade Capitalism: About the Series
After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia became a wild east in which communist central planning was supplanted by crude, free-wheeling capitalism. A small number of people - dubbed “oligarchs” by the press - became enormously wealthy by seizing control of state assets or buying them at knock-down prices. President Vladimir Putin, who came to power unexpectedly on the last day of 1999, re-imposed stability, while stronger oil prices fueled growth.

But critics of Putin’s Russia, both inside the country and out, contend that a well-connected elite continues to enrich itself unfairly from the state.

Early last year Reuters journalists set out to investigate how that happens. The team, led by special correspondent Stephen Grey, found evidence that the key to making money now is not seizing control of firms but tapping into state spending.

The reporters examined some of the Russian state’s biggest spenders - including the health system and publicly-owned Russian Railways. They found that large sums of public money were regularly paid to obscure private companies, and that substantial expenditure was captured by well-connected individuals.

Some information - billions of dollars of Russian Railways’ tenders for outsourcing work, for instance - was publicly available. Reporters analysed that data and other information provided by sources, including two years’ records of transactions through two Moscow banks. Further details were gathered from dozens of interviews and on the ground reporting in Russia and other countries.

Though each element of the inquiries was different, the end results showed a pattern: Significant sums of state money were passing either through intermediaries with links to Putin or into companies with secretive owners.
http://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/comrade-capitalism-about-the-series/

[JayH]

Going down and down !! 
I really want to hear from a few of YOU out there that told us that these prices were not possible !!  funnily enough-- the same people tried to tell us sanctions would not work!!
What are the current odds on Putin surviving the year?

1.00 USD   =   65.3403 RUB
US Dollar   ↔   Russian Ruble
1 USD = 65.3403 RUB   1 RUB = 0.0153045 USD
Convert again
RUB/USD thumbnailView Chart
Mid-market rates: 2015-01-16 00:01 UTC

Oil is at--

$41.65    ---- http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/data_graphs/40.htm

[lordtiberius]

http://news.yahoo.com/schlumberger-cuts-9-000-jobs-due-low-oil-222259643.html

It has hit us too.

[JayH]

The isolation gathering momementum-

Putin once again not invited to the meeting of G7

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that Russian President Vladimir Putin will not be invited to the summit bolshii sevens, which will be held in June in Germany.

According to the chancellor, Russia retreated from those values ​​that are held by other member states of the Community G7. It is because the presence of the Russian president is not desirable.

http://nvua.net/world/countries/putina-vnov-ne-priglasyat-na-vstrechu-g7-29717.html

[lordtiberius]

Jay, I believe the center of gravity has shifted from Ukraine to Moscow.  I believe whatever happens in Moscow will affect Ukraine but really the world.  Thoughts?

[JayH]

Not quite yet-- events in Ukraine can accelerate what happens in Moscow.

EG-- a substantial military setback in Ukraine would shake Moscow--they are still in the delusional stage that they are in control of the overall situation.

This is where Ukraine holding their ground-- or perhaps making progress becomes very important-the longer time that Ukraine is able to exert pressure and tie up Russian resources in Ukraine-the more the balance will shift to Ukraine   being able to control it's own destiny.
In time--the affect of the Sanctions and other economic measures will hurt Russia and Russians to the point they start asking questions.

The propaganda lies of the Kremlin have a life--one way or another the reality will creep thru to Russians.
Even today on forum--Brass posted some info that I think is a pre-cursor by Putin & cronies to unleash the thugs on any sense of people power having any say in a Russian future.

More likely-- is  a palace coup type scenario-- which will be no certainty that a "new" direction would be taken.In fact--it could result in more extreme stance in Moscow.

That is a major reason I have advocated the "west" in general needs to understand the potential volatility in the region-- and how fast events could move-- so being prepared to deal with the possibility of having to use maximum force needs to be pre-considered and ready.

Another point here-- if the "west" backs Ukraine up to the required degree(to beat Russia and regain all Ukrainian territory) then a larger confrontation may be avoided-- Russia would start to believe the west is serious and will fight. As it is--Putin is not having his bluffs called--they need to be called and the ante raised.

To 'beat' Russia in all of this-- Ukraine needs the military aid already discussed(  Air support to control the air,intelligence,equipment,weapons& training,logistics)  plus  the economic aid to seed new economic strategies to grow the economy into viability.

 A free,democratic,prospering Ukraine  will kill Russia more than any other factor- the world can help itself by helping Ukraine~~

[fathertime]

Not quite yet-- events in Ukraine can accelerate what happens in Moscow.

EG-- a substantial military setback in Ukraine would shake Moscow--they are still in the delusional stage that they are in control of the overall situation.

This is where Ukraine holding their ground-- or perhaps making progress becomes very important-the longer time that Ukraine is able to exert pressure and tie up Russian resources in Ukraine-the more the balance will shift to Ukraine   being able to control it's own destiny.
In time--the affect of the Sanctions and other economic measures will hurt Russia and Russians to the point they start asking questions.

The propaganda lies of the Kremlin have a life--one way or another the reality will creep thru to Russians.
Even today on forum--Brass posted some info that I think is a pre-cursor by Putin & cronies to unleash the thugs on any sense of people power having any say in a Russian future.

More likely-- is  a palace coup type scenario-- which will be no certainty that a "new" direction would be taken.In fact--it could result in more extreme stance in Moscow.

That is a major reason I have advocated the "west" in general needs to understand the potential volatility in the region-- and how fast events could move-- so being prepared to deal with the possibility of having to use maximum force needs to be pre-considered and ready.

Another point here-- if the "west" backs Ukraine up to the required degree(to beat Russia and regain all Ukrainian territory) then a larger confrontation may be avoided-- Russia would start to believe the west is serious and will fight. As it is--Putin is not having his bluffs called--they need to be called and the ante raised.

To 'beat' Russia in all of this-- Ukraine needs the military aid already discussed(  Air support to control the air,intelligence,equipment,weapons& training,logistics)  plus  the economic aid to seed new economic strategies to grow the economy into viability.

 

General Jay
Gets more delusional by the day
dreams of Putin day and night
Fight, fight, fight!
 


Fathertime! 

[BillyB]

Going down and down !! 

people tried to tell us sanctions would not work!!

Are you saying Putin is backing off Ukraine and returning Crimea? If so, sanctions are working. Contrary what you post here, I see a lot of the opposite happening.


You say don't underestimate the Ukrainian military and their fighting spirit yet today I read the rebels took Donbas airport which would be a key moral victory for them. Where's this mighty Ukrainian army you've been talking about at? Read link 1 below


You say Russia is in economic ruins and can't afford a military. How did the Germans lose WW1, endure economic ruins, pay war reparations and in less than 20 years become one of the most powerful military nations in the world? How did USSR nearly lose WW2 with major cities bombed and devastated and end the war as a superpower? Think about it. While you're laughing about Russia enduring economic pain, Putin is increasing military spending this year by 30% and wants to buy a couple of ships worth billions. Russia is thinking about suing France for those ships. Hardly the actions of a nation that is poor. Read links 2 and 3.


You say Ukraine is ramping up their production of weapons. Russia is doing a better job of that and moving their existing military westward. Tanks, missiles, troops and ships are going to Crimea. Link 4 below says 3000 troops, 39 ships, and 45 submarines are going to be parked next to Finland. 14 airstrips will be built.


You laugh at Russia but this is deadly serious business. Putin clearly is not focused on the health of his nation's economy. He is focused on building a war machine and most likely he plans on using it. NATO should've parked massive amounts of troops in Poland and the Baltics a long time ago to show Putin they have the stomach to fight. NATO showed weakness so Putin continues to proceed with his goals. If Putin moves 40,000 troops and calls it training exercises, NATO should move 120,000 troops on Russia's border and call it exercises. NATO member nations have much healthier economies but NATO, as they did in Libya and Afghanistan, decided to do things as cheaply as possible.


http://www.cbsnews.com/news/separatists-in-ukraine-capture-remains-of-sought-after-airport/


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/putins-defence-fixation-deepens-russian-172844566.html


http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2015/01/15/Russia-may-sue-France-over-scrapped-warship-deal/1701421339546/


http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/579215/20150115/nato-russia-cold-war.htm#.VLiLFbk5CUn

[lordtiberius]

Shame

[lordtiberius]

Are you saying Putin is backing off Ukraine and returning Crimea? If so, sanctions are working. Contrary what you post here, I see a lot of the opposite happening.


You say don't underestimate the Ukrainian military and their fighting spirit yet today I read the rebels took Donbas airport which would be a key moral victory for them. Where's this mighty Ukrainian army you've been talking about at? Read link 1 below


You say Russia is in economic ruins and can't afford a military. How did the Germans lose WW1, endure economic ruins, pay war reparations and in less than 20 years become one of the most powerful military nations in the world? How did USSR nearly lose WW2 with major cities bombed and devastated and end the war as a superpower? Think about it. While you're laughing about Russia enduring economic pain, Putin is increasing military spending this year by 30% and wants to buy a couple of ships worth billions. Russia is thinking about suing France for those ships. Hardly the actions of a nation that is poor. Read links 2 and 3.


You say Ukraine is ramping up their production of weapons. Russia is doing a better job of that and moving their existing military westward. Tanks, missiles, troops and ships are going to Crimea. Link 4 below says 3000 troops, 39 ships, and 45 submarines are going to be parked next to Finland. 14 airstrips will be built.


You laugh at Russia but this is deadly serious business. Putin clearly is not focused on the health of his nation's economy. He is focused on building a war machine and most likely he plans on using it. NATO should've parked massive amounts of troops in Poland and the Baltics a long time ago to show Putin they have the stomach to fight. NATO showed weakness so Putin continues to proceed with his goals. If Putin moves 40,000 troops and calls it training exercises, NATO should move 120,000 troops on Russia's border and call it exercises. NATO member nations have much healthier economies but NATO, as they did in Libya and Afghanistan, decided to do things as cheaply as possible.


http://www.cbsnews.com/news/separatists-in-ukraine-capture-remains-of-sought-after-airport/


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/putins-defence-fixation-deepens-russian-172844566.html


http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2015/01/15/Russia-may-sue-France-over-scrapped-warship-deal/1701421339546/


http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/579215/20150115/nato-russia-cold-war.htm#.VLiLFbk5CUn

And what do you recommend to Ukraine?