Ukraine Can Win

[BillyB]

Frankly, after saying for the past twelve months that the US should stay out of Ukraine, I am reversing my opinion.   

Never have I been so pissed off to see a bunch of thugs negotiate with people who are there in good faith only to have them stab the Ukrainians in the back the moment they agree to terms.

In the last 12 months, Putin never changed who he was. He's stealing his neighbors land then and he's stealing his neighbors land now.


With certain types of people, diplomatic solutions don't work when they are conducting business through the barrel of a gun. ISIS recently chopped off a few dozen Christian Egyptian citizens heads in Libya. Egypt went to bomb ISIS. Italy who has a big influence in Libya wants to try a diplomatic solution. European nations don't get it. I'm not sure Obama will ever get it. He still refuses to call terrorists "terrorists".

While browsing the internet I came across this piece discussing Poroshenko's options regarding the 8000 surrounded Ukrainian troops. 


---He can demand they fight...but many or most would be killed
----he can allow demand they surround their weapons, and Putin will let them go
---He can do nothing and see what happens. 
--He can send a massive rescue force and try to open a passage for them to escape. 
 

Merkel tried to talk to both parties but didn't work. Putin has shown he can honor the ceasefire most everywhere else but there is dispute who Debaltseve belongs to.


Putin has Poroshenko by the balls. If Poroshenko tells his troops to give up their weapons to guarantee a safe retreat, he will save the lives of his men but it's a big victory for Russia. It will motivate the rebels, lower the moral of Ukrainian troops, show the world Putin is compassionate, and the West will question the wisdom of putting quality weapons in the hands of soldiers who will turn them over to Russia.


If Poroshenko tells his troops to fight it out on their own since they can't adequately resupply and support them, most will die or be captured. Another victory for Putin.


If Poroshenko sends in a large army to rescue the 8000 soldiers, Putin can claim Ukraine is the major violator of the ceasefire and he will proceed to conquer land all over Ukraine.


Poroshenko is in a no win situation and Putin continues to remind him who's boss during this ceasefire.

[calmissile]

Billy,

It might be a pipe dream, but another possibility is for the USA to announce it is sending arms and air power as well as immediate removal of Russia from the SWIFT banking system.

An argument could be made that since Putin cannot control the terrorists, someone else needs to do it!

[sleepycat]

While browsing the internet I came across this piece

Hey Neville it's okay to post the link to the articles without reminding us again and again you found them while surfing the net.

Most of us are smart enough to work out that's how you come across these articles in the first place. No one here is assuming you found these articles under a Christmas tree so you don't have to keep repeating to us how you come across these articles. 

[lordtiberius]

I am reversing my opinion.

Glad we finally agree. 

[AkMike]

Billy,

It might be a pipe dream, but another possibility is for the USA to announce it is sending arms and air power as well as immediate removal of Russia from the SWIFT banking system.

An argument could be made that since Putin cannot control the terrorists, someone else needs to do it!

 Doug, obammy is finally sending 12, A-10 Warthogs to Europe now.  Based in Germany IIRC.

[lordtiberius]

Merkel tried to talk to both parties but didn't work.

LOL.  Merkel has been Putin's best friend from jump.  Guess again.

Putin has shown he can honor the ceasefire most everywhere else but there is dispute who Debaltseve belongs to.

Wrong again.  Fighting in Mariupol too:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/17/ukraine-rebels-say-they-cannot-morally-stop-fighting-government-troops

Putin has Poroshenko by the balls.  . . .  Another victory for Putin.  . . . Poroshenko is in a no win situation

So when ISIS beheads a prisoner is that a victory for ISIS too?



The only losers in this situation are those fools who believed that Mink has ANY chance of working.  We should have armed these men MONTHS AGO - after the Russians took Novazovsk.

[lordtiberius]

Doug, obammy is finally sending 12, A-10 Warthogs to Europe now.  Based in Germany IIRC.

A Warthog will do nothing against a Buk but get shot down.  The Ukrainians need a SIGNIFICANT Armament from NATO - to include Air Forces capable of knocking out Buks and other Air Defense (something the Russians have always been good at.)

Merkel should lose her job.

[fathertime]

Boy, you can't hardly contain your glee.

You are ascribing emotions to me that I actually didn't feel, although if the new situation ends the conflict sooner that is a good thing. 

Hey Neville it's okay to post the link to the articles without reminding us again and again you found them while surfing the net.

Most of us are smart enough to work out that's how you come across these articles in the first place. No one here is assuming you found these articles under a Christmas tree so you don't have to keep repeating to us how you come across these articles. 

YOU, of all people have no leg to stand on when it comes to repetition.   





Fathertime!   

[AkMike]

Merkel should lose her job.

 Send an email to the German Bundeskanzleramt. I'm sure they'll take this under serious advisement! 

[fathertime]

Merkel tried to talk to both parties but didn't work. Putin has shown he can honor the ceasefire most everywhere else but there is dispute who Debaltseve belongs to.


Putin has Poroshenko by the balls. If Poroshenko tells his troops to give up their weapons to guarantee a safe retreat, he will save the lives of his men but it's a big victory for Russia. It will motivate the rebels, lower the moral of Ukrainian troops, show the world Putin is compassionate, and the West will question the wisdom of putting quality weapons in the hands of soldiers who will turn them over to Russia.


If Poroshenko tells his troops to fight it out on their own since they can't adequately resupply and support them, most will die or be captured. Another victory for Putin.


If Poroshenko sends in a large army to rescue the 8000 soldiers, Putin can claim Ukraine is the major violator of the ceasefire and he will proceed to conquer land all over Ukraine.


Poroshenko is in a no win situation and Putin continues to remind him who's boss during this ceasefire.

I agree with your assessment pretty much in every respect.


Fathertime! 

[lordtiberius]

I agree with your assessment pretty much in every respect.


Fathertime!

Very damning to get this endorsement

[lordtiberius]

Send an email to the German Bundeskanzleramt. I'm sure they'll take this under serious advisement! 

I bet you're a hoot at cocktail parties.

[southernX]

BILLY B ..Putin has Poroshenko by the balls. If Poroshenko tells his troops to give up their weapons to guarantee a safe retreat, he will save the lives of his men but it's a big victory for Russia. It will motivate the rebels, lower the moral of Ukrainian troops, show the world Putin is compassionate, and the West will question the wisdom of putting quality weapons in the hands of soldiers who will turn them over to Russia.


If Poroshenko tells his troops to fight it out on their own since they can't adequately resupply and support them, most will die or be captured. Another victory for Putin.


If Poroshenko sends in a large army to rescue the 8000 soldiers, Putin can claim Ukraine is the major violator of the ceasefire and he will proceed to conquer land all over Ukraine.


Poroshenko is in a no win situation and Putin continues to remind him who's boss during this ceasefire.

exactly
putin has always been a chess step ahead of the game , because it is his dirty  game & he is karga bear, , poroshenko , obama , merkel etc are all soft cannon fodder to putin

the french under hollande are ??  ......well french , they dont want to fight for much at all

SX

[JayH]

I agree with your assessment pretty much in every respect.


Fathertime!

BB-- now there is your problem in a nutshell( or by nutcase?)

1/In the last 12 months, Putin never changed who he was. He's stealing his neighbors land then and he's stealing his neighbors land now.


2/With certain types of people, diplomatic solutions don't work when they are conducting business through the barrel of a gun. ISIS recently chopped off a few dozen Christian Egyptian citizens heads in Libya. Egypt went to bomb ISIS. Italy who has a big influence in Libya wants to try a diplomatic solution. European nations don't get it. I'm not sure Obama will ever get it. He still refuses to call terrorists "terrorists".



3/Merkel tried to talk to both parties but didn't work. Putin has shown he can honor the ceasefire most everywhere else but there is dispute who Debaltseve belongs to.


4/Putin has Poroshenko by the balls. If Poroshenko tells his troops to give up their weapons to guarantee a safe retreat, he will save the lives of his men but it's a big victory for Russia. It will motivate the rebels, lower the moral of Ukrainian troops, show the world Putin is compassionate, and the West will question the wisdom of putting quality weapons in the hands of soldiers who will turn them over to Russia.


5/If Poroshenko tells his troops to fight it out on their own since they can't adequately resupply and support them, most will die or be captured. Another victory for Putin.


6/If Poroshenko sends in a large army to rescue the 8000 soldiers, Putin can claim Ukraine is the major violator of the ceasefire and he will proceed to conquer land all over Ukraine.


7/Poroshenko is in a no win situation and Putin continues to remind him who's boss during this ceasefire.

BB-let us deal with each comment-I have numbered so easier to follow as I can see how much difficulty some have following a reply!!

1/   Correct--he was always a liar and a thief

2/  You missed Jordanian response when pilot was beheaded . The problem with your comment is that what Russia has done so far does not have direct impact like that on US mentality.

3/  Wrong--Putin has not shown he can honor anything--in fact he has shown the exact opposite.He has a Russian General overseeing yesterdays and last nights attacks-- do you think he is on holiday? No--Putin has shown he can never be trusted in any shape or form.

4/  You are behind events BB( like FT reading days ago news) -these events have already transpired with shocking losses to Ukraine. In case you missed it--last time talk of giving up weapons for safe passage happened--it resulted in the slaughter of good Ukrainian lives by the Russian scum. That is Putin's compassion-- a murderer of unarmed troops in defiance of any human decency or respect for life.


5/      see previous response

6/   While the time is past-- all the evidence--including posts in this thread shows clearly who was breaching the ceasefire conditions.In fact-the Russian response was to send a huge number of reinforcements into Ukraine. Once again-in case you missed it-- the world is now calling it what it is-- a Russian war on Ukraine

7/  Putin the cretin was too busy mocking Ukrainian troops and the lives being lost--he is a cocky little moron bully. Time will tell who is in the no win situation

 The loss of Ukrainian troops lives is being taken very hard in Ukraine. The passion of the hate is well founded and it is not going to be something Ukrainians will forget in their lifetimes. While yesterdays ( & todays) events represent a huge setback for Ukraine-it also spells out clearly what Ukraine is trying to deal with and why they desperately need help from the west.

[JayH]

A Warthog will do nothing against a Buk but get shot down.  The Ukrainians need a SIGNIFICANT Armament from NATO - to include Air Forces capable of knocking out Buks and other Air Defense (something the Russians have always been good at.)

Merkel should lose her job.

I am sure the A10 is a very capable aircraft at what it can do--but how would it perform in the environment here? Russian ground to air defences are extremely numerous and organised- and by all reports heavily in place already.
Afghanistan showed how vunerable aircraft could be to random attack from the ground-- and I presume the Russians will have much updated effectiveness in that area.
So--what is required here and be most effective way?

[calmissile]

 F-4G Wild Weasel aircraft armed with HARM anti-radar missiles is one of the weapons that took out the Radar systems in Iraq.  I assume that same missile might now be available on other platforms.  The A-10 can wipe out nearly everything else as long as the radars are taken out first.

Link below about the HARM and its replacement

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AGM-88_HARM

[fathertime]

Very damning to get this endorsement

BB-- now there is your problem in a nutshell( or by nutcase?)
 

Obviously I agree with this particular comment of Billyb's, and if that fact somehow makes his words less truthful, then I'd submit that the two 'rational' people  aren't making a very good argument against the assessment! 


Looks like SX also agrees with billyb....


Fathertime! 

[JayH]

 
The difficult decisions facing leader in Ukraine every minute are highlighted in this story. Today's tragic loss exasperated by indecision.Trying to show the west that Ukraine was trying to comply with peace terms stopped Ukraine opening another front that may have saved these guys--instead the Russians are wiping them out.There will not be many prisoners taken.

Putin doesn’t respond to slaps on wrists; it’s time to go for jugular
 Print version
Feb. 17, 2015, 7:43 p.m. | Op-ed — by Maxim Tucker

The Feb. 12 Minsk peace plan, it appears, has done little other than hand Russia and its proxies a distinct advantage on the battlefield. While Russian tanks and separatist infantry close in on the remaining pockets of Ukrainian resistance around the strategic city of Debaltseve, Ukraine dare not counter-attack for fear of losing the international support it has come to rely on.
l
In the increasingly forlorn hope that the West will somehow reward its good behavior, Ukraine is effectively fighting with one hand tied behind its back, unable to relieve pressure on Debaltseve by opening another front.

But that reward still seems to be a long way off. Although on Feb. 16 the European Union finally acknowledged that Russian troops are fighting in Ukraine, its response has to been to sanction two junior defense ministers, a senior military commander and a pop star.

In the meantime, many of the young activists and campaigners who took to Maidan to fight for a better life are now dying in the snowy fields around Debaltseve, abandoned to a battle of attrition by their Ukrainian commanders. Their purpose is to use their well-established dugouts to kill as many enemy forces as possible before dying themselves. They are being used to buy time in the hope that western military hardware will eventually arrive.

One of those young activists, now an army medic called Alik, is tonight just 500 meters away from a steadily encroaching mix of Russian regular and separatist forces. He and his fellow soldiers have seen dozens of videos of Ukrainians just like them captured, abused and even tortured. Rumors of captured soldiers being executed abound.

Now Alik and his unit face a tough decision. Fight to the death, or surrender and hope for the best. They already know that no rescue can reach them along the bombed out, mined road between Ukrainian lines at Artemivsk and Debaltseve. They already know that they are hopelessly outgunned by modern Russian units and their Russian-equipped allies.

http://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/op-ed/maxim-tucker-putin-doesnt-respond-to-slaps-on-wrists-its-time-to-go-for-jugular-381004.html

[JayH]

Is this evidence of war crimes of the wreckage of Donetsk International Airport?

Footage was shot during press tour organized by militants of the destroyed complex. Disturbing video filmed amid the ruins of the airport showed dead prisoners of war purported to be Ukrainian soldiers, with their hands tied together.



Video of frozen corpses with hands tied at Donetsk airport could be evidence of war crimes

[BillyB]

-these events have already transpired with shocking losses to Ukraine.

For months you've been saying Ukraine dominates fights. What world do you live in? Due to pressure from Russia, Poroshenko is now open to splitting Ukraine which is an about face in wanting to keep Ukraine intact and getting Crimea back. The West isn't helping. If you were the Ukrainian president, what would you do? Attack Moscow and go for the jugular? What would you do with those 8000 troops that are surrounded? Send in the rest of the Army and violate the cease fire by starting a larger war with Russia without proper backing from the West?

Wrong again.  Fighting in Mariupol too:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/17/ukraine-rebels-say-they-cannot-morally-stop-fighting-government-troops

A mortar attack. Not a big deal and your article said both sides have made violations. Jay and LT, you're blinded by anger. Putin is operating differently with Minsk 2 than he did during Minsk 1. He's being a good boy just enough so the West continues to give peace a chance. It doesn't mean he's going to stop, it just means he's giving West hope they are making progress with him. Stall tactics. If you think Putin is violating the ceasefire now, just wait until Ukraine changes or doesn't change their Constitution to give regions more autonomy. The ceasefire isn't perfect but it's better than ever before. Give your emotions a break for a month and use it on what happens then. You don't like what's happening now? You sure as hell not going to like what happens in a month.

Is this evidence of war crimes of the wreckage of Donetsk International Airport?

Pardon and amnesty by banning any prosecution of figures involved in the Donetsk and Luhansk conflict is key point #5 in Minsk-2. That is what Poroshenko agreed to. Poroshenko better agree to that now. He may not like the terms of a Merkel/Hollande/Putin negotiated Minsk-3 peace agreement.

[JayH]

Western government have proven incapable, or unwilling, to respond to Russia's drive to re-assert its influence in the "near abroad" leaving the Ukrainians pretty much on their own - there has been much cheap talk, but scant hard action. The sense is that many Western governments would prefer Ukraine to sue for peace now - any peace, on any terms, and including the further surrendering of its sovereignty to Moscow. Few major Western countries want to risk a more serious fissure with Moscow over Ukraine - shades of Budapest '56 or even Prague '68 spring to mind for many.

Does West want Ukraine to surrender to Moscow?
The battle of Debaltseve is becoming another potentially pivotal turning point in the war for Donbas, and perhaps also for Ukraine. It is perhaps of similar significance to recent battles for Illovaisk in September and also Donetsk airport, where Ukrainian forces ultimately suffered defeat at the hands of now much better equipped Russian backed rebel forces.

To recap, leaders from Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany, agreed a second ceasefire in Minsk on February 12. However, what appeared perverse at the time was that the ceasefire was only set to begin several days later. What now appears apparent is that during the ceasefire negotiations the Russian side asked for the surrender of the 4,000 - 8,000 Ukrainian troops encircled at the strategic city of Debaltseve- and offered their safe return to Ukraine, minus their equipment in exchange. Ukraine apparently refused, and was supported in this position at least by Germany.

Subsequently in the run-up to the formal ceasefire agreement at midnight on Feb. 14, heavy fighting continued around Debaltseve, as rebel forces tried to capture the strategic town, and to inflict a humiliating and potentially decisive defeat on Ukrainian forces. This military offensive has continued in subsequent days, and seemingly going against the terms of the ceasefire agreement. As of writing the town appears close to being captured by rebel forces - who have denied that the February 12 ceasefire agreement covered Debaltseve.

http://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/op-ed/timothy-ash-does-west-want-ukraine-to-surrender-to-moscow-381024.html

[JayH]

For months you've been saying Ukraine dominates fights. What world do you live in? Due to pressure from Russia, Poroshenko is now open to splitting Ukraine which is an about face in wanting to keep Ukraine intact and getting Crimea back. The West isn't helping. If you were the Ukrainian president, what would you do? Attack Moscow and go for the jugular? What would you do with those 8000 troops that are surrounded? Send in the rest of the Army and violate the cease fire by starting a larger war with Russia without proper backing from the West?

BB--like I keep saying-your comprehension skill are missing. I have not been saying for months that Ukraine was dominating the fighting. I have repeatedly pointed out where your assessment was wrong--which it was and often is.
You are right about the west not helping-- at least nowhere near enough-- and sympathy is useless.
The surrounded troops are being wiped out right now-- so what would  I do? I would forget western sensibilities and throw everything possible at saving those troops-- but--it is already too late and it needed to be done at least 2 days ago.
The ceasefire was partial and marginal at best-- and in fact has stopped Ukraine making a better decision over saving those troops.
What would I do? It is a very different thing sitting in the seat making the decisions --all to easy to sit on a forum throwing out outdated conclusions from out of touch information

[JayH]

Pardon and amnesty by banning any prosecution of figures involved in the Donetsk and Luhansk conflict is key point #5 in Minsk-2. That is what Poroshenko agreed to. Poroshenko better agree to that now. He may not like the terms of a Merkel/Hollande/Putin negotiated Minsk-3 peace agreement.

When the time comes I would show the same respect for the clauses as Putin and Russia have for the successive agreements!

[JayH]

In an interview he gave to Viktor Stepanenko of “Novoye vremya,” Oreshkin says that the war in Ukraine will continue as long as Putin needs it to. He wants to punish Ukraine for its independent stance in order to send a message to other former Soviet republics about the limits of the permissible as far as he is concerned.

Moscow analyst: Western leaders have no doubts about the war being orchestrated by Putin to punish Ukraine

In fact, the Russian analyst says, Putin doesn’t have a well-articulated strategy beyond what he sees as the vital need to punish Ukraine. “He cannot leave Donetsk both because he would lose control and because he would lose face. He cannot administer Donetsk because the West is quite sharply limiting his ability to do so.”

http://euromaidanpress.com/2015/02/17/moscow-analyst-western-leaders-no-doubts-war-orchestrated-putin-punish-ukraine/

[JayH]

Story by photographer embedded with Russian supported forces-- very current and on the spot.
Warning: Several of the following images are NSFW and extremely graphic.

Horrific Images Capture The Sheer Brutality Of War In Ukraine

LOGVINOVE, Ukraine — When Russian-backed rebels went on the offensive in east Ukraine a month ago, the focal point of the clashes quickly switched to Debaltseve, a strategically key rail junction linking their two unsanctioned states. For weeks, Ukraine’s government denied rebel claims to have the town surrounded, even as artillery fire prompted most civilians to flee, killed hundreds, and destroyed the town beyond recognition.
On Tuesday, however, rebels seized most of the town and took several Ukrainian soldiers captive. A catastrophic defeat is now all but inevitable. In the days preceding their victory, photographer Max Avdeev embedded with the First Slavyansk Brigade of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic in the nearby town of Logvinove. The rebels had just seized the town, cutting Debaltseve off from the last road leading to Ukrainian territory. The soldiers were mostly local volunteers, though their commanding officers were Russian — as were the men who delivered them tanks and artillery. As the deadline for a new cease-fire deal came and went overnight on Sunday, the rebels kept on shelling Debaltseve.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/avdeev/horrific-images-capture-the-sheer-brutality-of-ukraine-war#.ot2zD6VNg