Sochi air crash

[msmob]

An elderly TU-154 has crashed into the Black Sea off Sochi , after refuelling there..c.5am Moscow time

It was a flight with a military band and many TV correspondents en route to Syria..


http://www.rt.com/news/371623-russian-tu-154-disappears-radars/

[msmob]

More info:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38430164

Last msg from pilot was 'normal' - then c. 2 mins into the flight ... gone..

So, the plane was only 1.5km from land - still in Russian airspace - but v.close to 'Abkhazia'

Could it be a hostile act?  Can't believe a military plane wouldn't be well-maintained.

[alex330]

More info:
Can't believe a military plane wouldn't be well-maintained.

I believe it is a commercial plane.



Was always under the impression Russian aircraft were the brunt of poor maintenance jokes in aviation. As far as I understand many of the parts for aircraft were made in Ukraine and the West these days so part replacement has been difficult.

[msmob]

I believe it is a commercial plane.

Not what I am reading / hearing from Sochi

http://themoscowtimes.com/

www.ruaviation.com/news/2016/12/25/7765/

''operated by the Russian Defence Ministry''

Was always under the impression Russian aircraft were the brunt of poor maintenance jokes in aviation. As far as I understand many of the parts for aircraft were made in Ukraine and the West these days so part replacement has been difficult.

While you may be correct re maintenance levels - I have only ever been delayed by western models - in 20 years flying to / from the FSU or internally  !- I am certain the a company that is effectively state owned - is not farming spare part manufacture out to western firms ( Wiki warning ''JSC United Aircraft Corporation is a Russian open joint-stock company. With a majority stake belonging to the Russian Government, it consolidates Russian private and state-owned aircraft construction ... Wikipedia'')

[tfcrew]

Carrying the Russian military choir ...
This is a super heartbreak !!

(CNN)A Russian military plane carrying members of the army's official choir traveling to perform in Syria has crashed in the Black Sea near Sochi. There are apparently no survivors, according to the Russian Defense Ministry.The ensemble was "flying to congratulate Russian air force pilots in Syria with the New Year,"  ministry spokesman Igor Konashekov said.A Tupolev Tu-154 plane that was carrying 92 people, including 84 passengers and eight crew members, disappeared from radar Sunday morning local time after taking off from the Adler airport, state-run RIA Novosti news agency reported.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/25/asia/russian-military-jet-disappears/

[alex330]

Not what I am reading / hearing from Sochi

''operated by the Russian Defence Ministry''

I meant the type of aircraft is generally considered commercial transport, but yes, it was operated by the Russian military.

I am certain the a company that is effectively state owned - is not farming spare part manufacture out to western firms

If you read the Wikipedia page you can see that many of the electronics for this plane are manufactured in the West. The US even sources parts for it's military jets overseas.

In any case, Russia has ruled out any chance of terrorism.

[msmob]

Thanks for the explanation !

Me, I wonder at the dismissal so early..

[alex330]

Me, I wonder at the dismissal so early..

I may have spoken too soon....

I was going off Viktor Ozerov's statement -

"I rule out version of the terror attack completely. It is the aircraft of the Ministry of Defense, the airspace of the Russian Federation, there cannot be such a version"

Other sources are now saying nothing has been ruled out.

[msmob]

OK, so the (swift ) reasoning to doubt a terrorist attack is based on the fact that the plane was thoroughly checked at the point of departure and diverted to Sochi to refuel...not the original plan

It's in Russian - but can easily be translated


http://www.1tv.ru/news/2016/12/25/316838-versiya_terakta_pri_rassledovanii_krusheniya_tu_154_ne_rassmatrivaetsya_kak_osnovnaya

[tfcrew]

Matters may be determined by recovering the flight recorder.

[AkMike]

But since no reports from the plane for a distress call indicates a major rapid malfunction. Like a bomb. If it would have been for other reasons the crew should have had time to call out.


http://zik.ua/en/news/2016/12/26/tu154_crashed_due_to_terrorist_attack__yevhen_marchuk_1015589

 Of course the Dutch could have done it for revenge.. Or the Polish for the TU-154 that happend to blow up/crashed a few years ago

[Anotherkiwi]

But since no reports from the plane for a distress call indicates a major rapid malfunction. Like a bomb. If it would have been for other reasons the crew should have had time to call out.

Not necessarily.  If they had a catastrophic power outage (for whatever reason - terrorism or anything else) the radios may also have been inoperable.

[Brasscasing]

Not necessarily.  If they had a catastrophic power outage (for whatever reason - terrorism or anything else) the radios may also have been inoperable.

A tragedy. However, this aircraft's safety record is fraught with "unexplained" mishaps...

Tu-154 - Russian workhorse with poor safety record

..." The Tupolev aircraft maker's Tu-154, the type of plane that crashed in the Black Sea with 92 people on board, is an ageing Russian workhorse whose record is plagued with accidents.

Although Russian commercial airlines are no longer known to use the plane - which first flew in 1972 and went out of production in 1994 - it is still used by the military."...

http://www.rte.ie/news/2016/1225/841205-tu-154-record/

It would be convenient to have it reported as a terrorist incident or 'pilot error' which is already being bandied about by the Russians (prior to any investigation results, of course) but based on the safety record it was probably just another catastrophic mechanical failure.

Brass

[msmob]

Actually,   the  TV 154 has NOT got a bad safety record...Especially,  from a failure point of view. ...

I used to fly on them regularly from Cyprus to Krasnodar. .. They were banned from EL airports on environmental grounds.

[BillyB]

In any case, Russia has ruled out any chance of terrorism.

It would be an embarrassment to the Russian government not getting security right after terrorists incidences on planes happened in the recent past.

Making these statements before the black boxes are found says it all. Most investigators, without an agenda, say conclusions should be made after the black boxes are found.

[Brasscasing]

Actually,   the  TV 154 has NOT got a bad safety record...Especially,  from a failure point of view. ...

I used to fly on them regularly from Cyprus to Krasnodar. .. They were banned from EL airports on environmental grounds.

Actually, the TU-154 has one of the worst safety records of any commercial jetliner of any make...

Tupolev 154 Statistics

Last updated: 26 December 2016

Hull-losses: 69 
Hull-loss accidents: 59 with a total of 2833 fatalities
Criminal occurences (hull-losses, excl. hijackings): 5 with a total of 232 fatalities
Hijackings: 30 with a total of 13 fatalities
Survival rate: 31.3% of all occupants survived fatal accidents

http://aviation-safety.net/database/types/Tupolev-154/statistics

Accident list: Tupolev 154

There are 110 occurrences in the ASN safety database

Brass

[msmob]

Brass,

That is the danger when we use stats to 'prove' a point..

MANY, many of the accidents with this aircraft were down to human error - flying 'em into airports in crap conditions and poor pilot navigational aides.  It is NOT an inherently unsafe aircraft.

I have no evidence to suggest otherwise, but wondered at the speed of suggesting 'no terrorism' involvement - hours after the crash.

Anyway... Life News are suggesting that the black box has the pilot yelling  “the flaps, damn it!” followed by “Commander, we’re going down!”, citing its source. 

Life News also reported ( showing the first videos )  that the 'rebels' had shot down 'another UA-26 over Torez', on July 17th..that was MH17 ....

[papakota]

I believe it is a commercial plane.

No, it's not. It belongs to Russian Ministry of Defense. It became an issue because Russian MoD would be checking itself, so to speak. In other words, since it's a military aircraft no Russian Civil Air Service Agency can check it. Some say Russian military might wanna hide some facts behind the tragedy to cover their a....

[alex330]

No, it's not. It belongs to Russian Ministry of Defense. It became an issue because Russian MoD would be checking itself, so to speak. In other words, since it's a military aircraft no Russian Civil Air Service Agency can check it. Some say Russian military might wanna hide some facts behind the tragedy to cover their a....

I meant it is a cattle herder versus a bomber or fighter style aircraft. I understand it was in use by the military and clarified that upthread.

[Brasscasing]

Brass,

That is the danger when we use stats to 'prove' a point..

MANY, many of the accidents with this aircraft were down to human error - flying 'em into airports in crap conditions and poor pilot navigational aides.  It is NOT an inherently unsafe aircraft.

I have no evidence to suggest otherwise, but wondered at the speed of suggesting 'no terrorism' involvement - hours after the crash.

Anyway... Life News are suggesting that the black box has the pilot yelling  “the flaps, damn it!” followed by “Commander, we’re going down!”, citing its source. 

Life News also reported ( showing the first videos )  that the 'rebels' had shot down 'another UA-26 over Torez', on July 17th..that was MH17 ....

...And ignoring all the data, statistics and factual information telling you it's one of the most unsafe commercial aircraft ever flown in favor of opining that just because you've flown as a passenger on the thing a few times without thundering in, it's a safe aircraft, is ludicrous. 

Just as with most things, during the soviet era...'pilot error' was the excuse to save face for 'superior soviet technology" and in this last decade under Putin gawd knows what the truth has been with the last dozen or so TU-154s going down because Putin will make the explanation what it needs to be to fit his agenda.

If it's more advantageous to be a terrorist act then that's what it will become. If it needs to be pilot error then that's what it becomes.

Yep, apparently the voice recorder has that interaction on it. That'll be interpreted to mean what is most advantageous to the Russian government.

Brass

[msmob]

From the BEEB

''Has seen 39 fatal accidents, although few were due to technical problems. Many were as a result of difficult weather conditions and poor air traffic control. A few were lost in conflicts including in Lebanon, Georgia and Afghanistan'''

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-38449058

[Brasscasing]

From the BEEB

''Has seen 39 fatal accidents, although few were due to technical problems. Many were as a result of difficult weather conditions and poor air traffic control. A few were lost in conflicts including in Lebanon, Georgia and Afghanistan'''

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-38449058

That information is not accurate...

Hull-losses: 69 
Hull-loss accidents: 59 with a total of 2833 fatalities
Criminal occurences (hull-losses, excl. hijackings): 5 with a total of 232 fatalities
Hijackings: 30 with a total of 13 fatalities
Survival rate: 31.3% of all occupants survived fatal accidents

http://aviation-safety.net/database/types/Tupolev-154/statistics

Brass

[msmob]

That information is not accurate...

I 'see' - Jane's defence is not accurate ....

[Brasscasing]

I 'see' - Jane's defence is not accurate ....

I've read no quotes/links from Jane's defence on this thread.

However, now that you've cited Jane's please link it.

Brass

[Donhollio]

 When I heard it first crashed I thought a few things. Bombed outta the sky. But with a refueling in Sochi,  I doubted that. I was left with bad av gas,  maybe water in the fuel put the engines out. However it would still glide giving the pilots time to talk. Lastly I thought maybe they forgot to retract the flaps and in doing so the plane stalled. Not knowing much else about the altitude or plane, I don't know if they had time to relight the engines.
 Moby,  it sounds like you got lucky many times flying that aluminum coffin.
 I'm going back to continue peeling potatoes now.