The Struggle For Ukraine

[Trenchcoat]

But ultimately, what does Putin fear?  Does he fear an attack by NATO?  I think not.   

It's not so much that Putin thinks NATO is going to attack but the unease of having an opposing power of strength on his doorstep. More than that is the eastward expansion of both NATO and the EU. Yeltsin opposed the expansion of the EU after the breakup of the USSR. The EU had to tread slowly and carefully, creeping forward a bit at a time in expansion to avoid and sudden movements that might startle the Russian Bear.

Russia of course has China on its doorstep also as a power of strength but China is not seen as an opposing force, at least not so much as yet. China's focus is expansion into the South China sea region and beyond. China is also at odds with the US, UK, NATO somewhat so they have similar issues.

Another side to this is that Russia wants a bit of space from the EU and NATO. Before EU enlargement there was a lot of the Eastern Bloc countries that were quite a bulwark between Russia band the EU, now there is only Ukraine & Belarus. The EU exposes western values and that is something that is alien and uncomfortable to Russia. So seeing the ever eastwards expansion of the EU and NATO isn't much fun for Russia.

I've got to say it would be nice to have somewhere in Europe that is not Euroland. That's what I liked about Ukraine that it was different to western values and culture. If they were to join the EU they would have to go by EU rules and western influences may creep in even more. To me that would likely ruin the positives Ukraine has got in its own culture.

So Russia basically wants I think some of its own like minded countries around it so it can be units own world rather than have the western world staring it right in the face. That's what I gather if the situation, if course it's not at all on what it is doing its pretty appalling but I guess they see they have no choice. The EU & NATO have expanded towards them so they now feel they have to push back I reckon.

[Chelseaboy]

Trains now with people going back to Ukraine..men,women and children...as per Sky News reporters on the border with Poland.


They're saying they cannot leave their country and that they'll go back and fight...the women as well as the men.


Aircraft strikes in Ukraine have lessened a lot over the last few days..as the Russian aircraft have been getting shot out of the sky...this from the UK Ministry of Defence.

[fathertime]

Trains now with people going back to Ukraine..men,women and children...as per Sky News reporters on the border with Poland.
They're saying they cannot leave their country and that they'll go back and fight...the women as well as the men.

Civilians returning to a bombed out warzone seems like a bad idea. 

Once the exodus began, I thought it was in Russia's interest to permit it and promote accelerating it.  Basically it removes non fighters while putting Russia in a position where it has a better chance to control those who remain.  For that reason I don't generally believe the stories of Russia intentionally bombing exodus corridors.   I'd be more apt to believe the people returning by train being struck with intent.

Fathertime!   

[JohnDearGreen]

Shoigu story
http://nv.ua/ukr/world/geopolitics/rosiyska-armiya-slabka-ministr-oboroni-rf-jiji-pograbuvav-50223839.html

[krimster2]

it’s understood by everyone now in Moscva there will be no more Mercedes or BMWs, but instead Ladas...

Analysts at the FSB have plenty of skills and resources of all kinds, but it doesn’t matter, because someone “higher up” will decide that a conclusion is too negative, and must be changed to a more positive one to fit the official view,  after awhile analysts learn what the correct report is supposed to be, so in order not to have to work double shifts, they learn to write correct reports

writing correct reports is a sign of your “loyalty”, everyone wants to be considered loyal, otherwise you you are considered an “enemy”

what doesn’t exist right now in Moscva, is a well-developed model of economic management under the current sanctions, nor reliable information with regards to loyalty of the elites in the financial and political sectors, nor reliable information on the impending extreme measures to be implemented in Russia.

everyone’s reports contradicts everyone elses, so it’s all just “bardak” and useless
as a result, there is a constant stream of new data on "emergent" economic problems that "cannot exist"

there are MAJOR supply chain problems inside Russia, particularly in the single industry industrial cities that is leading to a shortage of military hardware

due to all these economic problems (lots of people aren’t even paid their measly salaries now) there is an expected explosive increase in major crime expected within Russia, especially when combined with the war psychosis that’s growing…

There is now complete dysfunction of the former economic model as there is no more stabilization fund, the exchange rate is laughable, and the old system of employment is now impossible in principle, and as a result Russia has shifted from crisis mode to catastrophe mode

a lot of the analysts that I personally know believe that if the current problems go on for more than a year, then as a result, the central government will collapse (but they will NOT put this in any report)

The ruble printing presses will work overtime to try to stem the flood, but this will just produce a different catastrophe

power is being mobilized for use within Russia as well as Ukraine, all cities are being militarized
while everyone is looking for enemies and saboteurs

there’s going to be huge changes in the military command, expect the most ruthless individuals to rise to the top, what this means is that when Russian tanks enter Kyiv, they will have Ukrainian women and children marching in ranks on all sides as human shields, expect public mass executions, etc.

uncontrolled violence is the future of Russia and Ukraine, and this may also be transmitted to other parts of the world when the food supply chain fails

[Boethius]

I suspect if women and children are used as shields and the civilian population is mass executed, the West will intervene.  There is only so far it can be pushed.

[Chelseaboy]

Lada production halted due to lack of supplies in Russia has been widely reported.


I suspect Russia will start having problems getting supplies for their military too.


At this rate China will just walk in and take over Russia,with the majority of the Russian forces stuck in Ukraine with no supplies.


Why pay Russia for their Oil and Gas when China could get it for free ?

[Faux Pas]

it’s understood by everyone now in Moscva there will be no more Mercedes or BMWs, but instead Ladas...

Analysts at the FSB CIA have plenty of skills and resources of all kinds, but it doesn’t matter, because someone “higher up” will decide that a conclusion is too negative, and must be changed to a more positive one to fit the official view,  after awhile analysts learn what the correct report is supposed to be, so in order not to have to work double shifts, they learn to write correct reports

writing correct reports is a sign of your “loyalty”, everyone wants to be considered loyal, otherwise you you are considered an “enemy”

what doesn’t exist right now in the West Moscva, is a well-developed model of economic management under the current sanctions conditions, nor reliable information with regards to loyalty of the elites in the financial and political sectors, nor reliable information on the impending extreme measures to be implemented in Russia the West.

everyone’s reports contradicts everyone elses, so it’s all just “bardak” and useless
as a result, there is a constant stream of new data on "emergent" economic problems that "cannot exist"

there are MAJOR supply chain problems inside Russia, particularly in the single industry industrial cities that is leading to a shortage of military hardware

due to all these economic problems (lots of people aren’t even paid their measly salaries now) there is an expected explosive increase in major crime expected within Russia the West, especially when combined with the war psychosis that’s growing…

There is now complete dysfunction of the former economic model as there is no more stabilization fund, the exchange rate is laughable, and the old system of employment is now impossible in principle, and as a result Russia has shifted from crisis mode to catastrophe mode

a lot of the analysts that I personally know believe that if the current problems go on for more than a year, then as a result, the central government will collapse (but they will NOT put this in any report)

The ruble dollar printing presses will work overtime to try to stem the flood, but this will just produce a different catastrophe

power is being mobilized for use within Russia as well as Ukraine, all cities are being militarized
while everyone is looking for enemies and saboteurs

there’s going to be huge changes in the military command, expect the most ruthless individuals to rise to the top, what this means is that when Russian tanks enter Kyiv, they will have Ukrainian women and children marching in ranks on all sides as human shields, expect public mass executions, etc.

uncontrolled violence is the future of Russia the West and Ukraine, and this may also be transmitted to other parts of the world when the food supply chain fails

Hey! Sounds just like Amerika

[krimster2]

"I suspect if women and children are used as shields and the civilian population is mass executed, the West will intervene."

if the west escalates, Russia will also escalate, I can already tell you who will win that scenario

[Boethius]

Well, no one wins.  However, Russia cannot win against combined NATO forces.  I am fairly certain of that.  Heck, they couldn't even take Ukraine in a week.

[fathertime]

Bangladesh doesn't rush in to join with the west and they lose their donated 'death jabs'  Population of Bangladesh is remarkably high considering their space.....165 Million about one half of the US population. 

Bangladesh will pay for its “support” of Russia in canceled vaccine donations

....Now, with the world taking sides in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, vaccine access is being used to retaliate against countries that aren’t expressing full opposition to Russia’s actions. This is what happened in the case of Lithuania, which decided to cancel its donation of nearly half a million Pfizer covid-19 vaccine doses to Bangladesh, after Bangladesh abstained in the UN General Assembly’s vote condemning the invasion.....

http://qz.com/2139368/lithuania-cancelled-its-vaccine-donation-to-bangladesh/?utm_source=YPL 

Fathertime! 

[Boethius]

I understand completely why former Soviet republics would do this.  They don't want Russia emboldened in any way.

[Chelseaboy]

Well, no one wins.  However, Russia cannot win against combined NATO forces.  I am fairly certain of that.  Heck, they couldn't even take Ukraine in a week.

It's two weeks now .

[krimster2]

" I am fairly certain of that.  Heck, they couldn't even take Ukraine in a week."

it won't be a war fought with conventional weapons, Russia will escalate into a completely new territory of warfare, for which the West is completely unprepared and would not survive
and this is without using its conventional nuclear forces...
Russia is more resiliant than the west, it's one of the reasons I own a farm in Costa Rica as insurance for my family

faux pas, just for you a picture of my Gen II Russian hand canon, aka, 26.5 mm flare gun
note the brass insert I machined myself to insert 12 ga shotgun shells, which thanks to Marina Butina are available in all Russian sporting goods stores
I load my own shells using about 50% more powder than standard shells, and use 4mm tungsten welding rods available in all welding shops cut to 10mm lengths
it's for very close range work, but your victim's face will be completely unrecognizable even from dental records should thery exist

[Boethius]

Sorry, I don't believe that.  Nor do I believe Russians are tougher. 


It's not the 20th century.  Russia survived in the past because of weather.  That's not so much a factor now.

[tfcrew]

Drone footage shows Russian tank column retreat after artillery ambush------

http://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-drone-footage-shows-russian-tank-column-retreat-after-artillery-ambush-12562334

[Bee Farmer]

In an interesting development, Japan has suddenly gotten much more aggressive about the Kuril islands, claiming they have sovereignty over them.

How many troops is Russia prepared to send eastward to defend the Kurils?  Can they handle confrontations on two fronts, while being subjected to heavy sanctions?  Will they allow Japan to take the Kurils, so they can concentrate their military forces on their western front?

How many other countries are going to start feeling ballsy in confronting Russia over disputed territory?  How many fronts can Russia effectively fight on?

How will sanctions affect Russia's ability to operate in Syria?  Will they walk away, so they can use those forces back in Ukraine or mainland Russia?

[rwd123]

There’s a reason why you’re not at the table of international diplomacy. ☝🏻

LOL. You mean like Denis Kireev? Ukrainian negotiator shot in the street by the SBU on suspicion of being a 'traitor'?

Not sure if it's related by Dmitry Demyanenko, former deputy head of the Main Directorate of the SBU was shot dead in a shootout with police.

I'm sure those stories are plastered all over mainstream media.

Prices are going to increase, that's what will happen. 

Belarus is not even in the top 10 in fertilizer production.   But I happen to know that Saskatchewan, which produces most of Canada's fertilizer (Canada is number 5 in the world, in terms of production) can produce a lot more.  Drive through the middle of the province, and you can see potash literally for miles on either side of the road, and that potash is not being mined or collected. 

Again, I am unworried personally about food security, although prices will continue to rise (they have, significantly, already).

Belarus is a major potash exporter. Russia has just announced a ban of fertilizer to 'unfriendly' countries. Ukraine has announced a ban on wheat exports. Russia may do the same.

You may not have concerns about food security but a lot of the world does. Turkey has asked the Ukrainian government not to accept Turkish foreign fighters. Funny about that, antagonize the Russians with drone sales, now doing a back peddle because Putin could cause food riots in Turkey. Not so good for Erdogan.

You are not forecasting how bad this is going to be for a lot of people in the west. There will be civil unrest in some countries - it's what sparked the Arab spring. Increased energy prices will result in more expensive everything, particularly food.

I suspect if women and children are used as shields and the civilian population is mass executed, the West will intervene.  There is only so far it can be pushed.

LOL, no. Nuclear war is not something Washington wants, and it's UKRAINIAN military using civilians as human shields.

The word of the day - resilience. Russia will be far more resilient than the west with economic collapse. As Krimster has pointed out Russia has been preparing this for years. The USA has been so badly caught with its pants down that US-funded biolabs have been discovered. Nuland didn't look too comfortable handling those questions, LOL!

Good to see the old goat is back, I had suspected Covid jumped species...

The longer the Ukrainian government holds off on a settlement, the less bargaining power they will have. The cumulative impact of sanctions on Russia will take months to have a larger impact, by then the hot conflict may well be over.

How many other countries are going to start feeling ballsy in confronting Russia over disputed territory?  How many fronts can Russia effectively fight on?

After Tokyo was fire-bombed by the USA and then 'impregnated' in Hiroshima and Nagasaki I don't think the Japanese want to seriously push the Russians. They cannot stop hypersonic missiles. It's suicide.

China will also say 'nyet' with threats to Japanese exporters, Japanese manufacturers in China, and the Sekaku islands. It may throw in an invasion of Taiwan for good measure which sends Japan back to feudal days as there will be very little they can export without Taiwanese microchips.

I appreciate that emotions may run high but a pragmatic de-escalation is the best for everyone (except for neocons and rats in Kyiv). That means Ukraine accepting Russia's non-negotiable demands.

The petrodollar is looking sicker by the day! I look forward to Russia asking for gold in payment for natural gas, LOL.

[Boethius]

What kind of settlement is dismantle your military?  No sovereign nation can agree to that.


I don't believe Russians are more resilient than are Westerners.   We just have the freedom to moan about it.


My comment on potash stands.  Canada, not Belarus, is the world's largest producer and exporter of potash.   Saskatchewan has over 100 billion tonnes of potash, and Canada has the world's largest reserves.

[rwd123]

What kind of settlement is dismantle your military?  No sovereign nation can agree to that.

Not sure it's clicked yet but Ukraine no longer exists any more than what Russia allows. The stronger the military control, the less it will accept. What's the odds other oblasts are 'offered a referendum' on autonomy if it is forced to fight to the bloody end? And do you think such a referendum will occur without the results known in advance? I'm not advocating for this but can see the writing on the wall.

My comment on potash stands.  Canada, not Belarus, is the world's largest producer and exporter of potash.   Saskatchewan has over 100 billion tonnes of potash, and Canada has the world's largest reserves.

If you miss a planting season the harvest will be impacted. Additional supplies will not come on line in time and some farmers will go to the wall. Domestic issues may impact Canada's ability to deliver potash in greater quantities as well. You seem to have the impression that "all will be well". It's going to be a lot worse than you imagine. Not everybody is a rich lawyer in a western country.

[Jumper1]

In an interesting development, Japan has suddenly gotten much more aggressive about the Kuril islands, claiming they have sovereignty over them.

How many troops is Russia prepared to send eastward to defend the Kurils?  Can they handle confrontations on two fronts, while being subjected to heavy sanctions?  Will they allow Japan to take the Kurils, so they can concentrate their military forces on their western front?

How many other countries are going to start feeling ballsy in confronting Russia over disputed territory?  How many fronts can Russia effectively fight on?

How will sanctions affect Russia's ability to operate in Syria?  Will they walk away, so they can use those forces back in Ukraine or mainland Russia?

The only one it takes to do so is China,and they have had good relations with Ukraine.

[Jumper1]

Not sure it's clicked yet but Ukraine no longer exists any more than what Russia allows. The stronger the military control, the less it will accept. What's the odds other oblasts are 'offered a referendum' on autonomy if it is forced to fight to the bloody end? And do you think such a referendum will occur without the results known in advance? I'm not advocating for this but can see the writing on the wall.
If you miss a planting season the harvest will be impacted. Additional supplies will not come on line in time and some farmers will go to the wall. Domestic issues may impact Canada's ability to deliver potash in greater quantities as well. You seem to have the impression that "all will be well". It's going to be a lot worse than you imagine. Not everybody is a rich lawyer in a western country.

There is a lot of middle ground between the sky is falling ,and all will be well.

4 of 5  US states ,  Canada and Mexico can feed a lot more of the.world than is being put forth here.
Oil costs for all factors of that do play a role.
The wests production can increase significantly over 12 months.
That's just as quick as Russia can address its logistical nightmare it will be mired in soon.
The decline for everyone will not be equal ,and Russia stock piling gold may pull.them.thru, or  may not.

This entirety is insane.

However I do not see Russia's strength at the negotiating table getting stronger over time,I see it.weakening .
There is trouble brewing in Kazakhstan again,easily can be  stirred and destabilized  ,same as some other places.
 Obviously there are counter opinions.

Being mired in a war with 10 to 40 million hostiles, continually funded ones, is far different than other scenarios they have been in. This could make those seem.like a child's  play date.
It's a nightmare for any military force.to control.and has seldom been long term successful in modern history.

 I ask myself  why the 14th battalion  russian army hasn't left Transnistia? To help invade Ukraine and cut supplies lines from europe? Perfect strategic location to do so and part of  why Russia pours 20 million euro.into.it.every year.
 In a big scale invasion that's a bit
Odd  to.leave on the.table isnt it?

The black sea is hard to control,you have a nato member holding the keys.
And those keys.are easily tossed down the well.


Russia should have worried about China, Georgia and turkey ,not Ukraine
Just my opinion

 I think there is a lot more going on here.

[Faux Pas]

faux pas, just for you a picture of my Gen II Russian hand canon, aka, 26.5 mm flare gun
note the brass insert I machined myself to insert 12 ga shotgun shells, which thanks to Marina Butina are available in all Russian sporting goods stores
I load my own shells using about 50% more powder than standard shells, and use 4mm tungsten welding rods available in all welding shops cut to 10mm lengths
it's for very close range work, but your victim's face will be completely unrecognizable even from dental records should thery exist

Inventive. That could kill a room full of peeps LOL. What kind of shot in the shells?

[Jumper1]

Inventive. That could kill a room full of peeps LOL. What kind of shot in the shells?

Looks like his *shot* is shrapnel,  the.4mm x 10mm .tungston rods.?

Since I TIG weld almost  daily,I'm appalled at the  use of this nice commodity, when pretty much anything else would do at shotgun range

🤷‍♂️
 

[krimster2]

it's laborius cutting the rods, but it does considerable more damage than regular birdshot
since all shell purchases in Russia are traceable, having homemade components, including wads makes it more difficult for militsa
my other weapon of choice is a sawed off "Baikal",
after WWII, the Soviets brought back from Germany a complete shotgun factory and made them in Russia
these are cheap, universally avaialble, so you can have a "straw buyer" get it outside your locale, and the black market price will be about 1000 USD which is a little over double retail with ser # filed off, so very affordable and these are overbuilt, impossible to blow up with the crazy powder charges I use, but both of these are VERY loud!!!
it's better to buy an older used one, than a new one where the sales record will be on top of the pile instead of on the bottom, ponelle?