The Struggle For Ukraine

[ML]

http://euroradio.fm/en/rail-war-belarus-partisans-prevent-military-trains-going-ukraine

[krimster2]

vidish!

a different kind of "Mein Kampf"
Russian families have to send their stariks and starushkas out to sweep up whatever food is available, when it's avialable, just like the Soviet period
these people will TOTALLY "cut-you" in line, so ya have to be prepared to be REALLY aggressive with them
'ahhhhh, good times!

Russians use a chat app, called "Telegram" to barter for medicines and other unobtainium
they have to fly from Moscow to Tashkent to setup banking there and get an Uzbek Visa card!!!
no dollars are available in Moscow AT ALL, NONE!!!  they're rarer than a cheeseburger now!
hmmmmm, gamburger....


note: Russians are tryin to "take down" youtube

PS, I LOVE the statue of Lenin in the background, I think he's pointing to the line for sausages!!
hmmm, kolbasa....

[Chelseaboy]

http://twitter.com/niktwick/status/1508490884794441728

Well i haven't a clue what they're saying but the girl seems well up for it...she raised her weapon and started patting it.

[ML]

Well i haven't a clue what they're saying . . .

That's where our FSU gals are useful to have nearby !
Get you one of them there gals.

OK, so I had wife come and watch the video and explain to me.
Each of the young men (I didn't notice until later that one was a woman) stated which town they came from.

Said they were forced into the Russian army.

Then they told how they were only given simple rifle to fight against better equipped Ukrainians and were sure that most of them would die needlessly.

[krimster2]

if I were Russian, I'd rather take my chances going up against the Ukrainian Army than shopping in Russia and going up against determined staroshkas lookin to score some chai
slovo!!

[Trenchcoat]

Russian Deputy Defence Minister claims Russia to drastically reduce military activities around Kyiv and Chernihiv...no doubt because they're getting their arses kicked in those areas now.


Just had a Ukrainian MP on CNN.He was saying the smell in Ukraine is appalling now,because of the dead bodies of Russian soldiers everywhere and the Russians don't take them away,leaving them for Dogs to eat.


I can confirm i've seen plenty of dead Russian/Chechen bodies lying around Kharkiv,even in people's back gardens.on the news reports .

Russia says it's to redeploy to the Donbass but I wouldn't be surprised if they instead go back to Belarus, across and then strike down towards Lviv. Makes sense to cut off or at least hinder supplies of weapons and food to Central & Eastern Ukraine. They've been hitting targets around Lviv of recently and that makes more sense as a prelude to attack. I think the Donbass is a smoke screen, I've no doubt they want it but it's also foolish to tell your enemy what you are going to do.

Probably a good few more weeks of this to go yet. I reckon that neither side will want to be premeptive at the negotiating table but will no that only fighting it out will likely decide who will have to concede over the Donbass.

[Chelseaboy]

Kyiv not looking in great shape from this report:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10656961/Civilians-Kyiv-starving-forced-drink-SEWAGE-water-Ukrainian-MP-says.html

Might explain why Zelensky seems to be willing to throw in the towel by stating that Ukraine won't be able to get all the Russian Army out if Ukraine and so angling for a negotiated peace with Russia. I find that remarkable giving the amount of damage Ukraine has been able to inflict upon the Russian Army with demoralisation high in the Russian Army and Putin having to call upon troops with even worse morale and training.

So it looks like despite Kyiv not quite being encircled by Russian troops that it's been difficult for Kyiv to get food deliveries into the city hence I assume why Zelensky is seeing that he may not be able to go all the way and kick Russian troops out of Ukraine.

Russia has 12,000 troops east of Kyiv who are now. in real danger of being encircled by Ukrainian forces.


The re-supplying of those Russian troops had been coming from the southern edge of Sumy.


Guess what ?


Ukrainian troops have now taken the southern edge of Sumy which means no more supplies for those 12,000 Russian troops east of Kyiv...they're now in serious trouble.


There's the reason why the Kremlin is talking about drastically reducing Russian military activity around Kyiv and Chernihiv...they're attempting to retreat and re-group.


Hopefully the Ukrainian forces will now manage to surround them and bombard them without mercy,just as those same Russian terrorists have been bombarding civilians in Kyiv , and finish off those 12.000 Russian troops .handing Putin a disastrous defeat.

[Chelseaboy]

What I don't understand in all of this is why Russia is only using a fraction of its army. Apparently it's Army is HUGE:

http://images.app.goo.gl/Hq1PU5CQ9EoFDJys7

So why don't they take a huge chunk of their army and invade on all fronts?

I half expected them to come down through Belarus towards Lviv and cut of the border, cut of the roads as Boe states to stop the supply of weapons into Ukraine and so give themselves an easier time. I thought they would bring in masses of tanks to overpower Ukrainian cities by sheer number.

I understand they need to protect their other borders but I doubt anyone is going to attack Russia as they have Nukes. So if it were me I would take a large chunk of forces and attack. Only thing I can think of is the economic cost of doing so but I would be surprised if they can't do it for a short while. Other than that would be someone taking control of a large army in one place and initiating a coup that of course could be a possibility.

Other than that I cannot think of a reason why a nation with a large army would attack and go about this almost like they had a small army and had nothing more. Not sure if the above reasons sound out but it just seems a strange thing to do.

Apparently today Mariupol got shelled from the sea, apparently nothing really left of it. I read that it was quite an attractive city before the war, the article said it was middle class, never been there myself so never saw how it was apart from the ariel photos and photos of it shelled out. The Mayor of Mariupol has apparently now fled, managed to get out somehow, his 'excuse' is that he can organise the humanitarian corridors better from outside Mariupol as no communication connection their now. Funny the excuses that such dignitaries come up with to excuse themselves from such situations. I wonder if Mariupol has much left in it before a surrender or they are overrun, food must have run out some time ago now and the soldiers must be exhausted possibly running out of ammo also. Seems Russian units, Chechens have been storming the city fighting street to street gun battles to try and take the place.

Apparently ( this is from a very good source ),Russia has 75%   of it's Battalion Active Groups now in Ukraine...these are elite combat-ready troops.


Russia does have more troops of course.but they're not combat ready and wouldn't survive a week in Ukraine.


Each Battalion has 800 troops...and there are 125 Battalions in Ukraine


The problem for Russia is that the average loss for each Battalion now stands at around 30%,which means many of the Battalions are in disarray with their chains of command smashed.


This is why the Ukrainian forces are increasingly confident they will win the war.


They're asking for more support from the West..not to win the war..but to win the war faster,so they incur less casualties among their military and civilians.


The USA is now training Ukrainian military in Poland on the use of the more advanced weapons being sent.

[Chelseaboy]

Ukrainian forces have now attacked Belgorod in Russia.as per TASS


A Russian forward operation base SW of Belgorod was hit by Ukrainian Artillery fire, and a weapons storage facility was destroyed with multiple huge explosions just outside Belgorod.with an SRBM strike...although TASS claims that part was an accident.

[Brillynt]

http://twitter.com/niktwick/status/1508490884794441728

The same has happened in Luhansk according to my wife's family. Most of the men 18 - 60 were rounded up and shipped out.
My wife's daughter personally knows two young men that have been killed already.

[krimster2]

Remember the “giant convoy” of Russian trucks that were headed for Kyiv?
It failed because of a series of night ambushes carried out by a team of 30 Ukrainian special forces and drone operators on quad bikes!

The drone operators were drawn from an air reconnaissance unit, Aerorozvidka, which began eight years ago as a group of volunteer IT specialists and hobbyists

Here’s their web site:

http://aerorozvidka.xyz/

The “Guardian” did a piece on them
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/28/the-drone-operators-who-halted-the-russian-armoured-vehicles-heading-for-kyiv

Although, I prefer “The Sun” especially “back in the day” when they had the Page 3 girls!
Sweet!

[2tallbill]

What if Putin Didn’t Miscalculate?
Quote from Article
"Suppose for a moment that Putin never intended to conquer all of Ukraine:
that, from the beginning, his real targets were the energy riches of Ukraine’s
east, which contain Europe’s second-largest known reserves of natural gas
(after Norway’s).

Combine that with Russia’s previous territorial seizures in Crimea (which
has huge offshore energy fields) and the eastern provinces of Luhansk and
Donetsk (which contain part of an enormous shale-gas field), as well as
Putin’s bid to control most or all of Ukraine’s coastline, and the shape of
Putin’s ambitions become clear. He’s less interested in reuniting the
Russian-speaking world than he is in securing Russia’s energy dominance.

“Under the guise of an invasion, Putin is executing an enormous heist,”
said Canadian energy expert David Knight Legg. As for what’s left of a
mostly landlocked Ukraine, it will likely become a welfare case for the West,
which will help pick up the tab for resettling Ukraine’s refugees to new
homes outside of Russian control."

read the entire article here
http://dnyuz.com/2022/03/29/what-if-putin-didnt-miscalculate/

Remember when Putin attacked Georgia he gained nearly 1/2 of the Black Sea
Coastline in the aftermath.

[fathertime]

What if Putin Didn’t Miscalculate?
Quote from Article
"Suppose for a moment that Putin never intended to conquer all of Ukraine:
that, from the beginning, his real targets were the energy riches of Ukraine’s
east, which contain Europe’s second-largest known reserves of natural gas
(after Norway’s).

Combine that with Russia’s previous territorial seizures in Crimea (which
has huge offshore energy fields) and the eastern provinces of Luhansk and
Donetsk (which contain part of an enormous shale-gas field), as well as
Putin’s bid to control most or all of Ukraine’s coastline, and the shape of
Putin’s ambitions become clear. He’s less interested in reuniting the
Russian-speaking world than he is in securing Russia’s energy dominance.

“Under the guise of an invasion, Putin is executing an enormous heist,”
said Canadian energy expert David Knight Legg. As for what’s left of a
mostly landlocked Ukraine, it will likely become a welfare case for the West,
which will help pick up the tab for resettling Ukraine’s refugees to new
homes outside of Russian control."

read the entire article here
http://dnyuz.com/2022/03/29/what-if-putin-didnt-miscalculate/

Remember when Putin attacked Georgia he gained nearly 1/2 of the Black Sea
Coastline in the aftermath.

....bottom line, the cost (From russian perspective) may be worth it, if Russia ends up with territory and resources like the article speaks of.  Sanctions and pariah state (From western states) will be harmful but not fatal.  Meanwhile eastern connections and black market would suffice I suppose. 

Fathertime! 

[krimster2]

Nope!  Pootin's strategic calculations aren't based on this...
Ukrainian gas fields are a mouse fart in comparison to what he already has in the far east and in the North!
Not worth it just to increase his gas reserves by another 1%

No…

what he wants is the land and the people

look at this map…
Russia has to defend a huge western border, and the demographics can’t support it
you can’t defend this border in the West, AND the one in the East with the forces he has today
and the demographics will get worse

if he “takes” Ukraine and Belarus, it GREATLY shrinks his Western border which will require less military resources (see pic)

and taking fellow slavs will help reduce his demographic problem

also, it will mean Western companies won’t be able to build LNG plants on Ukraine’s coast
and he can probably create conditions that will make it difficult for Romania and Bulgaria to host LNG plants without paying an insurance penalty which’ll raise their price, reduce competitiveness, etc

and, Pootin has a messianic vision of himself, as the restorer of Russian greatness, which requires unification of the slavs

secondarily, “Friends of Pootin” will get the spoils, this keeps their loyalty

the main reason that Ukrainian land is SO IMPORTANT, is FOOD!
Pootin knows that in the not too distant future, food will be a MUCH more important commodity than oil or gas

in general, Ukraine integrated with Russia is much more economically efficient, than being separated,
Ukraine's industrial economy didn’t do well because they were too dependent on producing things for Russia, instead of being independent, due to incompetent, corrupt management

IMHO, it's ALWAYS a mistake to use the military for this purpose
he was doing GREAT with the "hybrid warfare" approach against the West and Ukraine
after Maidan, he shoulda intensified this and got back on track by subverting Ukraine from within
this is how Russia got Ukraine in the first place...

[Chelseaboy]

Boris Johnson has today said that the economic sanctions against Russia will not be lifted until every last Russian soldier has left Ukraine...including Crimea.


He also said that Ukraine and other eastern European countries outside NATO,will now be armed to the teeth by the west..so much so that they will  become  Porcupines to Russia.


Could it be that Putin has made such a howler that, in attempting a further land grab in Ukraine, he actually loses the land he'd already stolen ?

[Boethius]

In Ukraine’s shoes, assuming the locals want to be part of Russia, I would let Crimea and the Donbas region now in Russian control go. I would demand a referendum, overseen by independent observers. If a free election were held, I suspect both areas would vote to join Russia. If so there’s no net gain to Ukraine in keeping them.

[krimster2]

Pootin invaded Ukraine for the same reasons as Hitler
Pootin will withdraw ONLY if he is pushed back, same as Hitler…

otherwise his strategy will be to “up the ante”
until Ukraine and NATO fold, because the bet he placed
is TOO high for them to cover….

he will reposition his weapons from attacking Kyiv to bombing the kakashka out of the 5 main roads from Western Ukraine and the main rail line
to reduce the flow of western weapons eastward and south
and also cut off Ukraine from the chorny moira
to trigger holodomor dva

I have my camera all setup on a tripod by the backdoor of the porch
so that when the Russian atomic demo lights up the night sky
I get a good picture

then he’ll replace the opytnyy soldiers in Ukraine
with novichok ones
and tell NATO, "bring it suki"

[fathertime]

What I see currently is Ukraine cities being demolished, one by one. 
I see the price of gas up through the roof.
I see the Russian ruble is completely recovered.
I see many of the non-western powers trading in their own currencies with Russia. China restated their relationship has no limits again.   
The dollar is being discarded. 
This is a disaster on many levels. 
If we can call any nation winners it is China, India, African nations perhaps.   Certain Asian nations.   

It is hard to say if Russian demands have changed at this point. Now that they seemingly have suffered loses, and are a pariah state, they may decide to take everything regardless of what the cost is.  If Zelensky is still actually calling the shots, I'd be curious how he is weighing the current circumstances. 

Fathertime!   

[Chelseaboy]

Putin has signed a decree to draft 134,000 Russians into the military.


I'm guessing the official Kremlin figure of 1,351 Russian military killed in Ukraine is a bit on the low side.

[2tallbill]

....bottom line, the cost (From russian perspective) may be worth it, if Russia ends up with territory and resources like the article speaks of.  Sanctions and pariah state (From western states) will be harmful but not fatal.  Meanwhile eastern connections and black market would suffice I suppose. 

Fathertime!

The sanctions on Russia were mostly a joke. A few Oligarchs lost their yachts
and little else. The Russian bank increased interest rates to 20% and the Ruble
has mostly stabilized

The only people who thought that the Biden sanctions would be harmful to
Russia were the people at CNN and other left wing activists organizations.

Clearly the sanctions are more harmful to American citizens, especially
the poor. Luckily they have Dementia boy looking out for them. 

[BC]

2tall,

The exchange rate is only one of many factors.  Sanctions can take months to be felt and are tough to get pulled back, giving them longer-term effects.

In large, exchange rates, like the stock market reflects investor sentiment.  The difference with currencies is that governments can take actions to prop up their currencies, like raising interest rates.  Inflation also raises internal demand.

EU is getting hit pretty hard as well, but gas prices have fallen a good bit here. The government reduced gas taxes. It's not just your 'Dementia boy' alone that is imposing sanctions so your blame is misplaced.

[krimster2]

Beel,
here’s how sanctions work:

Russian: Can I haz cheeseburger now?
Amerika: NYET!!!
Russian: (with sarcasm)Spossiba Putin

sanctions are the anvil
Amerikan and Euro weapons are the big hammer
Ukraine is the blacksmith
Russia is the horseshoe on the anvil
all ist klar, herr kommisar?


All my Russian vendors on ebay are gone now – THANKS BIDEN!!!

PS: guy I really feel sorry for is one of the Russian military attaches in the Mexican embassy - check out the name - second from the bottom LOL!!!

[BC]

all ist klar, herr kommisar?

Alles klar Herr Kommissar?

 

[krimster2]

I haz accent

[Boethius]

The sanctions on Russia were mostly a joke. A few Oligarchs lost their yachts and little else. The Russian bank increased interest rates to 20% and the Ruble has mostly stabilized

The only people who thought that the Biden sanctions would be harmful to Russia were the people at CNN and other left wing activists organizations.

Clearly the sanctions are more harmful to American citizens, especially the poor. Luckily they have Dementia boy looking out for them. 

Inflation is over 15% in Russia. 

The ruble has stabilized because it isn't traded, and the Central Bank has poured a lot of foreign reserves into it.

During the Soviet period, the ruble was "more valuable" than the USD, because the central government set its rate.  That's sort of the same thing right now.  Here's a good article from the WSJ.

The ruble is in a central-bank-induced coma.

While Russia’s currency can still see sharp swings in a day, it has trimmed its steep losses and begun to stabilize. It is now trading at around 99 rubles to the dollar, about 17% weaker than it was before Russian troops invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24 but stronger than its record low of 151 on March 7, according to FactSet.

Rising currency prices often reflect a general strengthening of a country’s economic outlook. Not so in Russia. Rather, central bank moves to limit ruble selling and force ruble buying have effectively manufactured demand for the currency.

Russia capped the amount of dollars that residents can withdraw from foreign-currency bank accounts and barred banks from selling foreign currencies to customers for the next six months. Russian brokerages also aren’t allowed to let foreign clients sell securities. These measures have made it more difficult to sell the ruble, thereby limiting its losses.

Western sanctions against Russia left carve-outs for exporters of  energy upon which Europe is particularly dependent, which kept dollars and euros flowing into the country. Russia ordered those exporters to sell 80% of their foreign-currency revenues and buy rubles, helping the currency appreciate.

“It is fair to say that the ruble is not a market price,” said Robin Brooks, chief economist at the Institute of International Finance. “If there were a free flow in both directions, we would see a far weaker ruble.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin recently said he wants European nations to begin buying Russian gas with rubles rather than dollars and euros. That would reverse the current flow of money, making sanctioning nations support Russia’s currency and ensuring that all funds from energy sales support its value, said Christian Kopf, head of fixed income at asset manager Union Investment. Such a move is unlikely, but it signals Russia’s desire to boost demand for the ruble.

Cold War 2.0? The Global Economic Impact of Sanctions Against Russia



Currencies often move with the ups and downs of a country’s economy. Investors want to put money into economies they think will thrive, buying stocks and bonds denominated in that country’s tender.

It is harder to take such insights from the ruble. Hundreds of companies have announced a withdrawal from Russia, meaning imports are likely to contract. At the same time, Russia is continuing to sell its oil, meaning exports and money gained from those will more than make up for the money necessary for imports. Oil prices above $100 a barrel are also adding a boost to revenue, even as Moscow’s inventories trade at a discount. The imbalance could strengthen the ruble, though it doesn’t make Russia’s economy any stronger.

“There’s so much stuff you’re not allowed to buy or sell,” said George Pearkes, a macro strategist at Bespoke Investment Group. “The ruble could strengthen a lot from here, and it wouldn’t mean anything.”

After the war broke out, the ruble market split to have one value within Russia and another on international markets. In onshore trading, Russia’s currency was valued at  94 rubles to the dollar on Monday while it traded at 98 in international markets. That gap has narrowed from early March.
Russian banks offered slightly fewer rubles for customers’ dollars than the Moscow Exchange on Monday. Sberbank PJSC offered about 89 rubles for a dollar while the Russian website of Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank quoted 86.

Many Western banks are no longer providing electronic quotes to buy and sell the ruble. Clients instead must call up the bank and ask if it is willing to process a trade and at what rate. Banks, worried about running afoul of Western sanctions, are having to clear every ruble transaction with their legal and compliance departments, traders say.

European countries have announced plans to shift away from Russian energy in the coming years, which also will weaken the ruble over the long term.

“We’re looking at a Russian ruble that is longer-term significantly weakened,” said Jane Foley, head of foreign-exchange strategy at Rabobank.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/how-russias-central-bank-engineered-the-rubles-rebound-11648458200