The Struggle For Ukraine

[Jumper1]

Wife and I seriously don't understand why Ukraine military cannot move south and attack the Russians surrounding Mariupol.

You'd have to know troop numbers and equipment in the area.

You do already know they were cut off and surrounded for weeks
Obviously  pretty strong Russian troop contingents cut them.off.
You dint have naval control of the black sea or.air control of mariupol to get supplies in or protect your troops
Russias being dropping supplies including heavy artillery equipment  at the Port city just west.
That's huge issue, its not like.ukraine is winning this on all fronts,

So you'd have to determine that strenght  russia jas there vs the possibility of reaching the objective, and the likely losses incurred.  Only as example do you lose a battalion to possibly  save the shreds of what's left of one? And more likely only.lose it in an unsuccessful attempt at such?

We simply don't have that info to know why they made that choice ,nor do we know that they arnt tryingvto push south and south east.as much as they can (across the map they have been)


It's a war. Not trying to be rude,just trying to explain its not like Hollywood movies.
You don't throw your resources away in Mariupol,if at all possible or realistic you'd secure them.
You also dont throw your resources away in trying an impossible task if that's what was determined.

The other side of it is more calculating.
Since Russia seems determined beyond all common sense to waste so many resources on making a point in mariupol( ( I do believe  wiping out azov let's them.claim a denazification win by may 9th)

Do you let them do so from a strategic standpoint as it ties up their efforts to mostly concentrated  one spot  and let's your troops concentrate and prepare defensive positions  in other critical.areas?
Does it let russia have face saving.win
which can soften.their.position at the  negotiation tables you are engaged in?

There is sadly a lot more at stake than those making a last stand there.

[Chelseaboy]

The Azov Battalion is also running low on ammo apparently.


Surrendering probably isn't an option for them.

[Jumper1]

I feel the progress Ukraine has made near mikolaev and into kherson is likely from the protection  provided by anti air equipment in the area.
The reported  loss of a s300.near mikolaev is bad.
Hopefully they have a lot more.

[Chelseaboy]

Could be getting worse..the Russians claim to have destroyed the S-300 supplied by Slovakia .


Slovakia has not confirmed this yet.

[Nightwish]

Apparently the post about Mariupol is false, site was hacked according to TV7

http://www.facebook.com/tv7mariupol/posts/5056417044437238

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Jumper1]

Could be getting worse..the Russians claim to have destroyed the S-300 supplied by Slovakia .


Slovakia has not confirmed this yet.

I hope not.
That sais I do absolutely wish reports of equipment  sent is not made public  until long after it wouldn't matter.

[Chelseaboy]

Apparently the post about Mariupol is false, site was hacked according to TV7

http://www.facebook.com/tv7mariupol/posts/5056417044437238

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

It's getting to the stage we can't believe anything we hear during this war...with all the false reporting we're starting to hear from both sides.


The Fog of War certainly applies in this conflict.


I think i'll stick to my original source and even then wait until it's confirmed on the major news outlets.


We might have years of this ahead of us.

[Nightwish]

It's getting to the stage we can't believe anything we hear during this war...with all the false reporting we're starting to hear from both sides.


The Fog of War certainly applies in this conflict.


I think i'll stick to my original source and even then wait until it's confirmed on the major news outlets.


We might have years of this ahead of us.

Like BBC?

http://tinyurl.com/2h5zay74

I agree on what you said, fog of war is hard to get through..

I only post here what I see from more than one trustworthy source.

[Admin]

Wife and I seriously don't understand why Ukraine military cannot move south and attack the Russians surrounding Mariupol.

Some answers may be found in this article --> http://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/11/ukraine-last-marines-defending-mariupol-running-out-of-ammunition

Jumper1 addressed it correctly. It's all about numbers of troops (and equipment) defensively and offensively. Those numbers are, and should remain, closely held secrets until long after the engagements.

[krimster2]

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1594611/russia-chemical-weapons-ukraine-latest-vladimir-putin-mariupol

Putin testing the western response...
if it's OK to use in the UK and Europe in small quantities
then let's steadily increase the quantity in Ukraine
and see what happens

[rwd123]

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1594611/russia-chemical-weapons-ukraine-latest-vladimir-putin-mariupol

Putin testing the western response...
if it's OK to use in the UK and Europe in small quantities
then let's steadily increase the quantity in Ukraine
and see what happens

There is no operational benefit in targeting civilians with such weapons. Azov guys holed up in manufacturing plants however - different story. If the Russian government is happy to use a chemical weapon during the Dubrovka siege then they'll be more than willing to use them to clean out a steel plant full of Nazis. Obviously the Russkies want to keep those plants in tact and have good intel who is stuck there... sounds like one or more "VIPs"... some say French, some say British, some say an American 3-star General... but someone noteworthy is there.

In other news -

An Italian journalist has disclosed the serial number on the missile that hit the train station. It's reported that it is a Ukrainian missile... aaand the west goes silent on that one.

A French journalist went with a few others to enlist in the foreign legion. He reported it is being run by Americans and not Ukrainians. Straight up a US operation. Pat have you seen that news footage?

[Boethius]

Pro Russian telegram accounts had bragged about that missile being launched into a crowd of "Ukrainian militants" before it was clear civilians, including children, had been hit.


Why are you assuming the Italian report is accurate?

[Boethius]

There is no operational benefit in targeting civilians with such weapons.

There's no operational benefit in torturing and executing civilians, raping children and women, and looting and destroying homes, but that's all happening too.

[rwd123]

Wife and I seriously don't understand why Ukraine military cannot move south and attack the Russians surrounding Mariupol.

The Russians have pinned down a large portion of the Ukrainian army in the south, and any moving from the north will face death from above. Supply lines will get hit and without them they're as good as dead. Southern Ukraine is no longer Ukraine! Plenty of Russian flags going up on buildings... if you're reading MSM then you're probably getting a distorted view. A mix of Telegram channels will give a better picture.

Some analysts have stated the Russian troop movements in the north were a bluff so that they could more effectively perform their operations in the south. Once the south falls it's as good as game over.

Boe - I'm not saying the Italian reporter is accurate, I have said it was inconclusive (but it's funny how it drops out of the news once it is reported). I've been pretty consistent in saying the first victim of war is the truth. Without an open mind one will fall back into personal biases.

[John Gaunt]

The Canadian guy,who's fighting in the Kherson region,covered this.


"it is currently impossible to de-blockade Mariupol.Our troops will be sitting ducks in the Steppes ,under Air-strikes from Rostov and Crimea."


This is one of the reasons why the Ukrainians are desperately asking NATO to close the skies.

Ukrainian forces are also stretched thin. The main bulk of a UKR forces are in defensive positions in the Donbas preparing for the RF thrust there in the coming days.

[rwd123]

There's no operational benefit in torturing and executing civilians, raping children and women, and looting and destroying homes, but that's all happening too.

Where's the evidence of chemical weapons targeting civilians?

[Boethius]

If chemical weapons have been dropped in Maruipol, they will be targetting civilians, as civilians are trapped there.  This should also be a red line for use against soldiers.

[Boethius]

Oh, and as for Americans training foreign soldiers, they trained Ukrainians. American military advisors is the reason the Ukrainian army is now professional.  I don’t think that makes this a proxy war, or an "American" war.  Russia invaded Ukraine.  Let's not forget that.

[Chelseaboy]

A French journalist went with a few others to enlist in the foreign legion. He reported it is being run by Americans and not Ukrainians. Straight up a US operation. Pat have you seen that news footage?

Foreign legion run by a foreigner...who'd have thought it ?


You do make me laugh.

[Boethius]

The Russians have pinned down a large portion of the Ukrainian army in the south, and any moving from the north will face death from above. Supply lines will get hit and without them they're as good as dead. Southern Ukraine is no longer Ukraine! Plenty of Russian flags going up on buildings... if you're reading MSM then you're probably getting a distorted view. A mix of Telegram channels will give a better picture.

Some analysts have stated the Russian troop movements in the north were a bluff so that they could more effectively perform their operations in the south. Once the south falls it's as good as game over.

Telegram accounts are not definitive proof of anything.  In fact, they are more distorted than MSM.


As for troop movements, what kind of an idiot military planner would sacrifice men and tanks for this? 


It's not game over unless the Russians kill everyone.  The amount of hatred they have sown is significant.

[Chelseaboy]

The Russians have pinned down a large portion of the Ukrainian army in the south, and any moving from the north will face death from above. Supply lines will get hit and without them they're as good as dead. Southern Ukraine is no longer Ukraine! Plenty of Russian flags going up on buildings... if you're reading MSM then you're probably getting a distorted view. A mix of Telegram channels will give a better picture.

Some analysts have stated the Russian troop movements in the north were a bluff so that they could more effectively perform their operations in the south. Once the south falls it's as good as game over.

The reports i'm hearing are that the Russian Orcs never reached Odesa,that they got their arses handed to them at Nikolaev,hence why they're hiding behind Kherson and firing missiles into Nikolaev from there,and that they're losing troops  hand over fist in the Kherson region,and with their Helicopters blown up on Kherson Airfield ( with plenty of footage available on that for your perusal ) as they desperately try to hang on there.


Sounds like Southern Ukraine is still Ukraine to me.



In 6 weeks 5 days Russia has taken 1 City,which they're struggling to hold onto..when you said they'd take the whole country in days.


You need to do better than that..you're starting to sound desperate. 

[Chelseaboy]

rwd123,


          Just for you.


"Russian shelling has continued in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions,with Ukrainian Forces repulsing several assaults, resulting in the destruction of Russian Tanks,Vehicles and Artillery Equipment."


This is from the British Ministry of Defence Intelligence report for 11th April,,which will be rather more reliable than the comics you read,


You're welcome.

[Boethius]

The welcome Ukrainians have come to expect from the invaders. And rwd believes they will just turn into Russians overnight. 

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-russia-war-soliders-rape/

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10707933/Ukrainian-woman-raped-Chechen-soldier-slit-victims-throat-near-Kyiv.html

[krimster2]

that was freakin clever of the Russians to do it in Mariupol
cuz ain't nobody gonna get a sample of the UAV sarin bomb out for independent analysis
I'd expect MORE to come
and I expect them to setup a production lab somewhere in occupied Ukraine
like they did in Syria
and switch to Novichok (see my previous lethality index post)
I'm a Scooby Doobie Novichok Newbie
and I've got Atropine eyes the size of dinner plates

[Grumpy]