The Struggle For Ukraine

[Trenchcoat]

If Ukraine is getting similar weather to the UK there will be no chance of a spring offensive.


Where i live we're getting a day or two of sunshine,with temperatures oif between 10 -13 C followed by a deluge of rain the next day,which is leaving the ground sodden with swampy conditions in the fields.


Not the ground for driving Tanks and APC's on...they'll get stuck in the mud.


There were videos going round on the internet at the end of last week showing Ukrainian soldiers wading through above ankle deep water in their trenches.

Yeah heard the situation is looking a lot like the WWI trenches out there which sounds bizarre considering how far we have advanced tech wise from those days. That's not a situation I would wish on others or wish to be in.

I think you're right CB that the weather conditions don't favour a counter offensive at the moment either plus with the Russians digging in it's going to be a case of lining up the right factors coming together if possible for a counter offensive. At the moment it's looking like it will take a bit longer and more trying to find a moment in which to strike effectively.

[krimster2]

We live in incredibly stupid times.
wot a silly wanker that airman wuz
no tradecraft skillz whatsoever
less than an amateur, barely qualifies as an idiot

now EVERYBODY with a clearance is gonna get "the lecture"
poor workin stiffs

yeah, looks like only a narrow window from the spring rains until the beginning of
"all the children are INSANE... ...waiting for the summer rain"  which is usually in early june for south ukraine

april showers bring may flowers and THEN the pilgrims start marchin to cut the northern supply line to krim
if they time it right, they get in before the summer rain makes it harder for russians to launch a counter-offensive

war and comedy
all about the timing
it's why zelensky is SO good
first comedian commander-in-chief
knows 10 "knock knock" jokes for every one that putin does
AND is a talented dancer to boot
putin can barely play the piano and poorly sing blueberry hill

zelensky towers over putin in SO MANY ways

russians are so far behind in everything
russian leadership compensate by accepting massive losses

but...
as the last mobilization showed
for every soldier mobilized two young educated russians left the country and economy
russian gov. responded by eliminating child labor laws
and raising the retirement age as well as reducing pension amount , to help pad the workforce
therefor, there will not be open mobilization plans
but closed ones, stealth ones, secret ones

worker's paradise LMFAO!!!
the economy is russia's 2nd front
and they're doing just as badly
as they are in Ukraine

look at Russia 1914-1917
we're at the 1915 stage now
two years from now, there will be lots of "interesting events" in Russia

there are no new "shows" in Russia
everything is a sequel or a re-run

fer instance,
in 1990 the Soviet Union admitted that Soviet Union carried out Katyn massacre. There are public images of  Soviet documents with Stalin personally approving the murder of 22,000 Poles.
Russians blamed it on the Nazis. They lied, of course
in the current sequel, Russians still commit attrocities and blame it on Nazis...
same ole same ole

[Trenchcoat]

Kind of terrible times, that so many face such awful fates. I know I brought up the whole number of troops killed stuff, my mind just can help but turn over the factual stuff but when you think of it, it's a pretty miserable situation for all those dragged into the situation, I feel kind of bad it's come about to this.

[Chelseaboy]

Watched Stacey Dooley Ready for war ? on BBC  iplayer last night,it's also available on BBC Three.


It's about the Ukrainian recruits coming over to the UK for five weeks training before going back to fight the orcs,and follows them through their training.


Some nice moments.but generally sad seeing these guys who were florists,welders and jewellers giving up everything to go and protect their country and families.


The first question they all get asked at the recruitment centres in Ukraine is "Are you ready to die to protect your country " ? and they all shouted "yes".

[krimster2]

I KNOW what the Russians are "working on" to win the war in Ukraine
and when they do it, it's gonna be one of the darkest days in American history

i see the constellation of dots
and what emerges when you draw the lines between them

a chain is only as strong as the weakest link
and that's where you try and cut the chain
and NOT where it's strongest (like in Ukraine)
therefor, Russia will not win the war on the battlefield

instead, they will do it with two GRU agents in Washington DC
who will be at the right place and the right time
and with just a little pinprick do in a few seconds
what the entire russian army failed to do in over a year
and this day of infamy
leads to a massive avalanche of "unfortunate events
that leads to a cascading collapse in Ukraine, after the military supplies are stopped
and huge turmoil within the USA to the point of a civil war
that all began with just a little jab

and that's all i'm gonna say about that
authorities question me, I'm gonna be like Sgt Schultz, "I know NOTHING"
and if ya'll think otherwise, well why don't ya prove it then LOL
yeah, maybe it was just a lucky guess on my part

I will tell ya'll just one detail, it'll be called "The Oktober Surprize"
this name REALLY resonates with Russians

[Chelseaboy]

The amount of  Russian orc officers confirmed as killed in Ukraine since 24/2/22 had risen to 2,055 by 13/4/23.


There have now been 10,000 pieces of Russian orc heavy military equipment visually confirmed as destroyed in Ukraine since 24/2/22. ( photo's,videos,satellite images and drone footage )


The destruction of the Russian orc military continues   

[krimster2]

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/4/14/2163936/-Quick-Explainer-Why-can-t-Russia-produce-new-weapon-systems

a simple explanation of the structural problems of the russian military-industrial complex
and why it's only gonna get worse

a lotta stuff is "converging" towards some future transition in the world
china and russia are in big trouble
but the truth is we ALL are

Wuhan Shuokang Biological Technology
has killed more young  Americans than the japanese and nazis did in WWII (and still is on a daily basis - couple of hundred per day)
THIS is how ythe chinese do asymetrical warfare
a kinda jujitsu where you use minimum force, and use the enemy's own moves and efforts against them

Russia hacking hillary's emails, and bribing the FBI to slander her to get Trump elected is another example of this and demonstrates how ridiculously efficient it is
as opposed to launching a conventional war

a profoundly subtle approach
maximizes gain for a small expenditure
use the gains from one effort, to create new ones
while you smile politely in public and deny everything with disinformation channels you create

I was able to trick chatgpt4 into generating complete step-by-step guides for doing this
russians already know about this
expect MUCH more clever hacks and attacks in the near future that were planned by an AMERICAN AI!!

oh, and one more thing, the GRU will use usa citizens  to perform certain tasks, like they did with Oswald

see, there's the world above, that ya'll can see
and then there's the world below
that only people "like me" can see

hehe, i'm crazy, you can't put any faith in my ramblings, right?
whatcha laughin at?

[Trenchcoat]

Currently good exchange rates can be had on the UAH, best ever really. One GBP now buys approx. 45.65 UAH, so up a good 10 UAH from what we used to get in peacetime. Of course getting to Ukraine not as easy as it used to be.

Looks like the same for the USD to UAH as well, looks like both jumped against the UAH about the same time a number of months ago. Not sure if this was due to devaluation in Ukraine, war, etc.

Possible sign that the economy in Ukraine is not doing so well but then again neither it is in Russia either. Both unfortunately for the people taking a hammering from it all.

[krimster2]

the Ukraine war will be one of the political "hot button" issues in the 2024 USA election

USA oligarchs are gonna get Robert Kennedy Jr to run as a 3rd party "spoiler candidate" against the democrats in 2024 to help Trump win AGAIN

Russians will generously assist with the disinformation campaign, Musk has already invited them back to twitter
Russians will check polling, if it's in their favor, then just "let that bet ride"
if it's NOT in their favor...
well, that's when things "get interesting"
and instead of "adding" things to help Trump
they'll "subtract" things instead
end result, Trump wins, Russia wins

if ya'll look at my old posts in the past, I told ya EXACTLY when Russia would invade Ukraine
and the same method I used to figure out the invasion date
is the same one I used to figure out the future "special election" of Donald J Trump

secret service -- don't shoot the messenger when this happens
just remember who tipped you about Blue Orchid
and all the promotions ya got for that
another opportunity for ya to shine against the Russians will be handed to ya next yr
IF you're up to the task...
and if you're not...
then we're all gonna be deeply phuqued!!

bon chance!

the cuban missile crisis led to Dealy Plaza
the Ukrainian war will as well
changing America forever

a place where there is no more "Leave it to Beaver" vibe
America in the future will be more like Hogan's Heroes, but without the German accents
word dawg!

[Chelseaboy]

Prigozhin reported yesterday that there is a "monstrous slush" in Ukraine that even pick-ups can not normally pass through the fields,and adds that the soil still needs around ten days to dry.


Meanwhile at least 2,085 Russian orc officers have now been confirmed  killed in Ukraine  since 24/2/22, as at 21/4/23.

[krimster2]

can you imagine a "Dunkirk" like scenario
but instead of little British sailboats retreating
it's EVERY tractor in Ukraine crossing no-man's land pulling wagons and they're all in 3rd gear with the pedal to the medal bearing down on Russians

photographed in wide-screen
and set to the score of "Flight of the Valkyries"

[Trenchcoat]

At the moment Ukraine is still losing ground in Bakhmut with the Russians apparently taking three more districts in the last day or so. Apparently reports are that Ukraine is calling up more men and reserves to Bakhmut and quickly training them presumably to try and hold the line. My guess is that Ukraine has been suffering badly from the fighting in Bakhmut too and is likely seeing heavy losses also now.

As yet no sign of the use of either Challenger or Leopard tanks at the front, let's hope they haven't already been sold on with sone rich Ukrainian jetting off into the sunset money made lol.

Recent report on the Leopard tanks being sent to Ukraine situation:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/04/22/more-leopard-2-tanks-are-bound-for-ukraine-as-kyiv-makes-long-term-plans-for-its-armored-battalions/

Looks like they are not necessarily getting them all at once and for some it may take time. Even then the combined Leopard/Challenger force will only be around 100 tanks with possibly some Abram's at some point adding to the number. So at the moment way short of the 300 that Ukraine's top brass said they needed to push matters the other way.

I'm guessing they might help to hold the line but I'm still not sure if those tanks in itself will be a game changer for Ukraine. That said it looks like it's going to be a long old slog for the Russians, they look set up for a blow up one city move onto the next strategy, a hard, slow and brutally painful way to conduct war. Still shocks me that they didn't even bother to try to get some forces down along Ukraine's western border in the early stages of the war, it would have been almost certainly almost wide open with little resistance. Would have finished and won this war for Russia real quickly, Ukraine wouldn't have been able to get in ammo and armaments from the west and cities could have been running short of food, a few months tops and they would have been done for. Luckily I guess for Ukraine that Putler & his Generals were so stupid but unfortunately Ukraine has all this to endure now. I support Ukraine but it just still amazes me how stupid & incompetent Russia was in its strategy, just absolute fools.

[Trenchcoat]

Ukraine forces have apparently crossed the Dnipro river around Kherson. A bit of an unusual move as would not generally be thought the best place to advance since having a river stuck behind you isn't usually a great idea and Russian forces had apparently been digging in.

My thoughts are that it is most likely a ruse to draw Russian attention away to allow for a easier counter-attack situation elsewhere. The forces that have crossed the Dnipro seem small in number at the moment and some haven't fully crossed the river but are on inlets as the river divides before emptying out into the Black Sea.

Anyhow, looks like the Ukrainian forces are finally up for initiating a Counter-offensive. Will just have to see when are where they fully move in.

[Chelseaboy]

At the moment Ukraine is still losing ground in Bakhmut with the Russians apparently taking three more districts in the last day or so. Apparently reports are that Ukraine is calling up more men and reserves to Bakhmut and quickly training them presumably to try and hold the line. My guess is that Ukraine has been suffering badly from the fighting in Bakhmut too and is likely seeing heavy losses also now.

As yet no sign of the use of either Challenger or Leopard tanks at the front, let's hope they haven't already been sold on with sone rich Ukrainian jetting off into the sunset money made lol.

Recent report on the Leopard tanks being sent to Ukraine situation:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/04/22/more-leopard-2-tanks-are-bound-for-ukraine-as-kyiv-makes-long-term-plans-for-its-armored-battalions/

Looks like they are not necessarily getting them all at once and for some it may take time. Even then the combined Leopard/Challenger force will only be around 100 tanks with possibly some Abram's at some point adding to the number. So at the moment way short of the 300 that Ukraine's top brass said they needed to push matters the other way.

I'm guessing they might help to hold the line but I'm still not sure if those tanks in itself will be a game changer for Ukraine. That said it looks like it's going to be a long old slog for the Russians, they look set up for a blow up one city move onto the next strategy, a hard, slow and brutally painful way to conduct war. Still shocks me that they didn't even bother to try to get some forces down along Ukraine's western border in the early stages of the war, it would have been almost certainly almost wide open with little resistance. Would have finished and won this war for Russia real quickly, Ukraine wouldn't have been able to get in ammo and armaments from the west and cities could have been running short of food, a few months tops and they would have been done for. Luckily I guess for Ukraine that Putler & his Generals were so stupid but unfortunately Ukraine has all this to endure now. I support Ukraine but it just still amazes me how stupid & incompetent Russia was in its strategy, just absolute fools.

Prigozhin says the west has donated 230 Tanks to Ukraine..Whether that figure includes the yet to arrive Abrams from the USA he didn't specify.


He said the west has also donated 1,500 other armoured vehicles.


Russian channels are reporting a big build-up of Ukrainian forces at Zaporizhia.

[Trenchcoat]

Prigozhin says the west has donated 230 Tanks to Ukraine..Whether that figure includes the yet to arrive Abrams from the USA he didn't specify.


He said the west has also donated 1,500 other armoured vehicles.


Russian channels are reporting a big build-up of Ukrainian forces at Zaporizhia.

That would figure, I always thought that is the more likely and easier route for Ukraine to strike, likely down through Zaporizhia to Melitopol & on to Crimea and/or Mariupol. Kherson region again just being used as a ruse to deflect attention.

[Chelseaboy]

Interesting report from the Institute for the Study of War ( ISW ) today.


According to analysts ,Russian occupiers continued their ground attacks in Bakhmut and it's surroundings ,but over the past two days they have not achieved any territorial gains.

[krimster2]

you don't use tanks to fight in a swamp
you use infantry
the Ukrainians are LIGHT YEARS ahead of the Russians
they're sending their top soldiers in small units across the Dnipro, only takes a couple of inflatable rafts at night to ferry them and supply them
on the left side of the Dnipro, they have artillery and Hi-MARS
Russians attack the forward Ukrainian positions, and get hit by artillery and the Ukrainian defenders (best troops+best weapons)  the Germans in WWII called this the "Swerepunkt" the "Spear Point"
once the Ukrainian Spear Points establish a position and hold it
they'll then launch another group to do the same
and another... and another...
this is what the beginning of the Ukrainian southern offensive is gonna look like
a swamp war

meanwhile a Ukrainian drone over Red Square
http://t.me/Pravda_Gerashchenko/69587

a few days ago a Ukrainian torpedo drone hit a Russian ship in Sevastopol, limited info as to damage

[Trenchcoat]

you don't use tanks to fight in a swamp
you use infantry
the Ukrainians are LIGHT YEARS ahead of the Russians
they're sending their top soldiers in small units across the Dnipro, only takes a couple of inflatable rafts at night to ferry them and supply them
on the left side of the Dnipro, they have artillery and Hi-MARS
Russians attack the forward Ukrainian positions, and get hit by artillery and the Ukrainian defenders (best troops+best weapons)  the Germans in WWII called this the "Swerepunkt" the "Spear Point"
once the Ukrainian Spear Points establish a position and hold it
they'll then launch another group to do the same
and another... and another...
this is what the beginning of the Ukrainian southern offensive is gonna look like
a swamp war

meanwhile a Ukrainian drone over Red Square
http://t.me/Pravda_Gerashchenko/69587

a few days ago a Ukrainian torpedo drone hit a Russian ship in Sevastopol, limited info as to damage

Wouldn't the Russians be doing the same, hitting them with artillery where they are now having just crossed the river?

While it's great to see Ukrainians making an effort I'm not sure I'm convinced they can mount an attack this way. My thoughts are that it could be more to hold Russian units down in Kherson region to avoid them moving troops up to Zaporizhia region.

[krimster2]

the difference is Ukrainians know where  to attack, where Russian artillery is at it's weakest, and Ukrainians can pre-position their artillery to cover the attack
Russians would have to shift their artillery closer to the attack zone, this gives Ukraine an opportunity to attack Russian artillery using HI-MARS, when it's being transported and vulnerable, if the Russian artillery can't be suppressed then the Ukrainian special forces can withdraw, either way will leave a bunch of Russian casualties

long term, Russia has no military solution to achieve victory in Ukraine, at best they can TRY to hold on to MOST of the territory they've stolen
Russia's solution to winning, is to try and break the support chain (this is BY FAR the weakest link)
picture what would've happened to Britain, if all the support from the USA was cut-off in 1940

this solution will start to produce an escalation of asymetrical war against the West DIRECTLY
such as destroying the $30 million Reaper drone over the Black Sea a few weeks ago
this will lead to sabotaging western undersea cables, and other easily sabotaged items like oil and gas pipelines, shipping, etc

they want to raise the West's public's perception of a war risk, by actually starting a low-level asymetrical war with the West
this war fear will then be used by pro-Russian political candidates next year
and the rest I can't tell ya, cuz I don't want the FEDS knocking on my door again

[krimster2]

http://euromaidanpress.com/2023/04/25/frontline-update-ukraine-establishes-20-km-wide-bridgehead-on-dnipros-eastern-bank/?swcfpc=1

the proof is in the pudding
this is the start of the Ukrainian "offensive"

the Russian "defense line" is too long (800 km)
thins out their equipment to the point that it creates gaps (especially after losing half of it, and the best half at that)
gaps create opportunities for Ukraine

the Teixeira leak mentions

"and what kinds of satellite imagery the United States uses to track Russian forces, including an advanced technology that appears barely, if ever, to have been publicly identified."

but this system is SO SECRET, Teixeira didn't have much actual info, other than how important it is

it has "God-Like" AI power
can identify and track every russian tank, truck, canon, even individuals over a wide area
calculates logisitc requirements and tracks shipments and movements of Russian units
knows WAY more what the Russians are doing than the Russians

a robotnick monstor that calls out the names of Russian soldiers who are to die
Skynet Ukrainia

ain't no Russian John Conner
ya'll phuqued
slovo!

[krimster2]

Russia has just now blocked the grain corridor
prohibiting Ukrainian grain from leaving Ukrainian ports

Russia WANTS the US Navy to step in
and protect vessels leaving black sea ports
cuz they're planning for accidents to happen to the US Navy

a-and the reason Russ-see-ya is blaming Biden for the North Stream pipeline explosion
is cuz pretty soon they're gonna do the same to western pipelines
and they'll ties these events together

coulda used Tucker Carlson for this
Russians are VERY unhappy about losing Tucker

[krimster2]

The Russian spacecraft, called Kosmos-2558, was launched into the same orbital plane as the US satellite, called USA-326

satellite vrs satellite
USA-326 is the USA's Ukrainian observation satellite

Russia is gonna up-end the scenario where the west's only involvment is to be the arsenal of democracy for Ukraine
they gonna start "wacking" western things soon
to raise the ante
hoping at some point, the west is gonna fold

[krimster2]

Highlights of the First Ukrainian Matchbook Brigade of the Ukrainian People's Militia scorecard
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932023_Russian_mystery_fires
overall, 200 mystery fires in Russland in the first 3 months of 2023, above are the highlights
RESISTANCE IS NOT FUTILE!!

'dis here is my "laser matchbook" made from an old scavenged Laser Hair Removal Unit
150 watt invisible infrared output diode laser minus the collimator, heatsink and low power IR spotting laser
originally intended for zapping sniper's eyeballs (scope optics make it even worse!)
but then found out how much fun it can be starting fires miles away
runs off a 12V car battery and power inverter
so many fun uses in Russia

with this tool you can be "The Johny Appleseed of Arson"
I love technology!
but regular 'ole matchbook and Zigarette works fine as well

za mir ludie!

[Trenchcoat]

the difference is Ukrainians know where  to attack, where Russian artillery is at it's weakest, and Ukrainians can pre-position their artillery to cover the attack
Russians would have to shift their artillery closer to the attack zone, this gives Ukraine an opportunity to attack Russian artillery using HI-MARS, when it's being transported and vulnerable, if the Russian artillery can't be suppressed then the Ukrainian special forces can withdraw, either way will leave a bunch of Russian casualties

long term, Russia has no military solution to achieve victory in Ukraine, at best they can TRY to hold on to MOST of the territory they've stolen
Russia's solution to winning, is to try and break the support chain (this is BY FAR the weakest link)
picture what would've happened to Britain, if all the support from the USA was cut-off in 1940

this solution will start to produce an escalation of asymetrical war against the West DIRECTLY
such as destroying the $30 million Reaper drone over the Black Sea a few weeks ago
this will lead to sabotaging western undersea cables, and other easily sabotaged items like oil and gas pipelines, shipping, etc

they want to raise the West's public's perception of a war risk, by actually starting a low-level asymetrical war with the West
this war fear will then be used by pro-Russian political candidates next year
and the rest I can't tell ya, cuz I don't want the FEDS knocking on my door again

Would be interesting to see, this article out today seems to think much the same as I thought that the Kherson crossings are more of a diversion attempt or at least to hold Russian units down while the main counter offensive happens elsewhere:

http://www.france24.com/en/europe/20230428-a-small-step-across-the-dnipro-river-a-giant-leap-for-ukraine-s-counteroffensive

[Trenchcoat]

the Teixeira leak mentions

"and what kinds of satellite imagery the United States uses to track Russian forces, including an advanced technology that appears barely, if ever, to have been publicly identified."

but this system is SO SECRET, Teixeira didn't have much actual info, other than how important it is

it has "God-Like" AI power
can identify and track every russian tank, truck, canon, even individuals over a wide area
calculates logisitc requirements and tracks shipments and movements of Russian units
knows WAY more what the Russians are doing than the Russians

I can imagine the US government/military are very upset and angry at that young guy. My guess is that they are so peeved at him he's likely to get the full 20 years if he's ever seen from again. All down to an over his ego getting over excited online. Probably forgot the real gravity of what he was doing in the process. That type of stuff isn't really the type of stuff you want your enemy to have the heads up on.