The Struggle For Ukraine

[Trenchcoat]

i'm not currently allowed to tell anything about my family in order maintain operational security, so NO COMMENT!!!
but unlike Wagner, mobiks are in until the war is over

mobiks have never made so much money in their lives
so even theough they are all gonna die, they're gonna die rich, so they're happy!!!
FREAKIN RUSSIANS!!!

Apparently the Wagner troops that were involved aren't going to face criminal charges. The ones that weren't are going to be offered a contract with the Russian Army. So I guess you were right Wagner troops at large aren't going to be in it till the war is over lol.

So isn't your wife upset that she could lose the family that has been conscripted? Brother, etc.

[krimster2]

"So isn't your wife upset that she could lose the family that has been conscripted? Brother, etc."

she's "all tied up" at the moment in bed and hence unable to reflect on the circumstances of her family
after i'm finished, i'll let her go....
and perhaps then she will think about it...

[Steven1971]

Pretty intense trench warfare fighting

http://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672939251598589953?t=Psm0C9WOVeZUPglfq_1LVQ&s=19

[Steven1971]

Saturday summarised

http://youtu.be/8BXhzdpP-lU

[krimster2]

out of 90 000 Russians at the Zaporizzhia front(where my relatives are), about 16 000 are dead or wounded through the first 20 days of the offensive.
but all the russians who died, died wealthy(so they think), so no problema
russian survivors all look like chechens with their gray beards and run down appearance, cuz they're all unshaven middle aged mobiks livin in a swamp!!!

- out of 990 Russian artillery pieces, 300 have been destroyed.
this is a big problem, cuz nothing to shoot hohols with when they launch their big attack AND that's why Ukrsoldat are doin it!!!

first Russian defense line is ALREADY cracking like a Wagner roadblock

the coup attempt has put the focus on the cracks that are appearing in Russian society and not just between wagner vrs Russian gov supporters
longer the war goes on, the larger these cracks become

if pootin is trying to 'wait it out' in Ukraine until he absolutely ensures Trump's campaign victory so Trump cancels all aid
I think the coup shows that he doesn't have that much time left....

[Trenchcoat]

out of 90 000 Russians at the Zaporizzhia front(where my relatives are), about 16 000 are dead or wounded through the first 20 days of the offensive.
but all the russians who died, died wealthy(so they think), so no problema
russian survivors all look like chechens with their gray beards and run down appearance, cuz they're all unshaven middle aged mobiks livin in a swamp!!!

- out of 990 Russian artillery pieces, 300 have been destroyed.
this is a big problem, cuz nothing to shoot hohols with when they launch their big attack AND that's why Ukrsoldat are doin it!!!

first Russian defense line is ALREADY cracking like a Wagner roadblock

the coup attempt has put the focus on the cracks that are appearing in Russian society and not just between wagner vrs Russian gov supporters
longer the war goes on, the larger these cracks become

if pootin is trying to 'wait it out' in Ukraine until he absolutely ensures Trump's campaign victory so Trump cancels all aid
I think the coup shows that he doesn't have that much time left....

Good to have some figures to get an idea of how it is going out there Krim so many thanks for that.

Not sure I get the dying wealthy bit, surely that no longer matters when dead?

What is the deal anyway I assume they get extra money go to their family if they don't make it?

Something tells me even my small earnings/wealth would look good against it particularly accounting for risk.

[Chelseaboy]

Ben Wallace said today in Parliament  that Ukraine has now liberated approx  300 square km's of territory from the orcs during the counter-offensive.


"They continue to make gradual but steady tactical progress."


"Russia do not appear to have the uncommitted ground forces needed to counter the multiple threats it is now facing from Ukraine ,which extends over 200km from Bakhmut to the eastern bank of the Dnipro river."


His full speech can be seen on Ministry of Defence GB @DefenceHQ.

[Chelseaboy]

Good to have done figures to get an idea of how it is going out there Krim so many thanks for that.

Not sure I get the dying wealthy bit, surely that no longer matters when dead?

What is the deal anyway I assume they get extra money go to their family if they don't make it?

Something tells me even my small earnings/wealth would look good against it particularly accounting for risk.

The vast majority of the orcs come from a background of poverty..they probably didn't have the money to flee the mobilization when it was announced.


So,i'm guessing that when you're lying there in the Ukrainian swamp,your leg blown off by a mortar round hitting you and bleeding out,you'd be thinking well at least i'm not gonna die poor,so at least i did something with my life .

[Trenchcoat]

Lukashenko has put his troops on full combat readiness.

Looks like idea might be that the part of Wagner that chose Belarus go there and join up with Lukashenko's forces and launch an attack on Ukraine from the north. My guess would be towards Lviv in an attempt to cut off the land border. Another attempt in Kyiv I think would be foolish considering the bad experience Russian troops had on that one.

If so it would open up a second front again thereby putting more pressure on Ukraine and possibly forcing them to halt the Counter-offensive in the east.

Potentially this may have been brought about/early by the attempted Wagner coup unsettling matters in Russia thereby Putler realising that he may not now have the time he did to gain victory in Ukraine.

Either that or Lukashenko is in fear of the Wagner troops being invited into Belarus lol.

[krimster2]

a murder of crows (chorny varonna) in moscow
is that a tactical nuke in your pocket, or are you just glad to see me?

pootin can't remain in this spot much longer...
he has to make a decisive move SOON, he can't wait for Trump to save him
he needs to do something now to solidify his position BEFORE the election
cuz right now - he's LOSING in Ukraine with the momentum shifting away from him!!!

i still believe that novichok is the better choice compared to nukes
it makes a lot of sense for the world's militaries to switch to chemical and biological weapons of warfare compared to large resource consuming methods of warfare
like ships and armies, etc

pootin could pioneer this like the germans did with poison gas in WWI
if I were pootin, i'd novichok the crap outta the entire ukrainian military and get zelensky to in a massive country-wide novichok attack
and it'd be over and done with before NATO could react
the russian military just picks up the pieces of  whoever's still alive

then i'd phuqueing declare victory
and ride shirtless on a horse with a rifle slung across my back into kiev (new spelling)
as asia's oil, gas, and now wheat supplier
you people in asia want these resources? cash only...

oops...

postscript
based on my spread sheet analysis
if Ukraine can keep up the current pace until the end of summer
then Russia will have almost no tanks/artillery/rocket launchers left
and Ukraine's heavy brigades, about 50,000, who are currently training... are not even at the front yet
so imagine adding 50,000 fresh troops with western tanks while wagner is withdrawing to belarus

advice to ukrainians
flame throwers for taking Russian trenches
then create a telegram channel of russian soldiers burning alive (make sure the volume is all the way up!) and try to get 10 million hits in Russia with them before they're taken down

[Trenchcoat]

BBC news correspondent in Kyiv tonight asked on top military General type and f guy at a reception how it was going (the Counter-offensive) he gave a very slowly gesture. Better than losing ground or having the war going very slowly against you but not yet enough. Not likely as hoped by now seems to be the case for the Ukrainian Counter-offensive.

My guess is that the Ukrainians are likely losing similar numbers of troops to the Russians in the Counter-offensive. That seemed to be the case from a news report a week or so back when both sides were actively at it that it reported both sides were taking heavy losses. With the attacker usually more likely to take greater losses my guess is that Ukrainian & Russian losses are about the same rate accounting for likely better training, equipment, weapons & tactics on the Ukrainian side verses no so on the Russian side but dug in defensive positions and possibly higher troop numbers.

I think the Ukrainians really lost their chance by not moving and hammering the Russian troops with all they got (HIMARS, Storm Shadow, etc) early on in the Wagner rebellion. Had they used that to break the morale of the Russian troops many could have fled and Prigozhin seeing that would be emboldened to hold fast.

Ukrainians at this point need to just keep plugging away at their Counter-offensive, the opportunity has been missed but over time the Russians might still be worn down. An attack from Belarus is still a threat but they will just have to hope that doesn't happen and prepare for it  by recruiting enough troops to reinforce the lines there in case it does.

I agree that Putler is now likely sitting with less time to play with as a result of the Wagner rebellion farce. So he is likely to feel pushed into doing something soon to try and make a play for a victory to see off thoughts of his replacement. Getting Belarus to attack Ukraine is a strong possibility I think. Chemical or nuclear weapons are too much of an intellectual response for Russians I think they seem to like to slog it out man to man, thumping each other to prove who is the most strongest, chemicals & nukes doesn't give them the macho buzz they need to feel.

Something will come soon from the Russian side no doubt it seems.

Flame throwers are a horrific and terrible weapon that would strike fear into most enemies. I don't think Ukrainians would use them however as although it could freak out some Russian soldiers it's also likely to lose Ukraine support abroad as a barbaric and cruel method. So it could end up doing more damage than good as if Ukraine starts to look bad abroad and lose support so does it lose its supply of arms that it crucially relies upon.

So at the moment Ukraine's game is to make sure it hold in there by preparing itself well, continuing with the Counter-offensive in hope of a break through. It can't afford not to continue pushing the Russians back as long term matters are not likely to be on its side unless it gets lucky. I think Putler rather than Russia as a whole is on the brink at the moment and he looks wavery. That said it's uncertain who any replacement might be and what their position on the Ukraine war might be so I think for the time being he will likely be left but could become more of a puppet figurehead while perhaps the military take more control but we will have to see.

[Chelseaboy]

Update from the general staff of the AFU this morning.


 The AFU are making advances in the directions of Melitopol,Bakhmut and Berdyansk.
Despite heavy resistance from the orcs the AFU is inflicting tremendous damage and losses on them and their equipment in those areas.

[krimster2]

http://www.obozrevatel.com/ukr/politics-news/zelenskij-zaklikav-deputativ-legalizuvati-v-ukraini-medichnij-kanabis.htm

so chill...

ukraine is now gonna be 420 friendly thanks to Zelenky's decree
AND...
English is to receive special language status in Ukraine....

dawg...
what more do you incels need?

[krimster2]

post war - hope for incels?

so Ukraine, post-war is gonna have a MASSIVE wave of euphoria
and in addition, Ukraine is gonna be 420 friendly
AND English is gonna have 'protected' status

it's gonna be the ultimate wave for you incels to catch and ride in on
IF you're smart enuff!
but face it, most of ya'll are incels cuz ya ain't REALLY all that smart, ok? let's be honest here...

you smart incels can buy some land in some Ukrainian village
get a local girlfriend(s)
and grow high-end weed without the cops stealin half, cuz it's legal now!
and you can live like a freakin king
and I KNOW, it grows really, really well in Ukraine!!!
you could overgrow the russians

oh, and for the above to happen
Ukraine has to win of course

postscript
the results produced from audits of wagner and russian MOD will mean a lot of russian window cancer deaths in the near future
stay away from tall buildings and falling russians

[Trenchcoat]

post war - hope for incels?

so Ukraine, post-war is gonna have a MASSIVE wave of euphoria
and in addition, Ukraine is gonna be 420 friendly
AND English is gonna have 'protected' status

it's gonna be the ultimate wave for you incels to catch and ride in on
IF you're smart enuff!
but face it, most of ya'll are incels cuz ya ain't REALLY all that smart, ok? let's be honest here...

you smart incels can buy some land in some Ukrainian village
get a local girlfriend(s)
and grow high-end weed without the cops stealin half, cuz it's legal now!
and you can live like a freakin king
and I KNOW, it grows really, really well in Ukraine!!!
you could overgrow the russians

oh, and for the above to happen
Ukraine has to win of course

postscript
the results produced from audits of wagner and russian MOD will mean a lot of russian window cancer deaths in the near future
stay away from tall buildings and falling russians

Assuming you're not celebrating Hitler's birthday that sounds like a mission for you Krim. Might not be Moscow but likely better than the Baltics

My guess is that to do best at it big time would require someone capable of getting the top nobs on side to get the big lucrative medical cannabis contracts if it's done that way. Otherwise too much risk of being still being deemed as operating illegally and the same old bribes if caught being needed I would guess.

Moving in now and getting set up in readiness in Ukraine so you've got your foot in the door ready for when they legalise medical cannabis would be the thing to do I would have thought to get in and get big early to avoid others getting in first and crowding out the market. That of course would be gambling on Ukraine winning. My guess that somewhere out in the country towards the east of the country would be the way to go.

That's a cracking painting Krim, is it one of yours?

[krimster2]

image not mine, I don't feel so inspired

[Trenchcoat]

News article today about the situation of the current Ukrainian Counter-offensive:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66075786

Doesn't feel great to estimate those that have been killed etc as a result of joining Armies but my guess is Ukraine may have lost around 200,000 troops by now and Russia around 300,000. Somewhere near towards those figures for both sides would be my guess.

I think both sides will be calling up more men as they are needed on a continuous rolling basis. I personally wouldn't blame anyone for doing a runner on either side as the future doesn't look great on either side on that one. My guess is that there probably aren't that many soldiers who were around at the start of the war still around now aside from those casualties that were maimed and similar.

Looks like Ukraine has recently changed its conscription/mobilization law probably with the aim of replacing men lost at the front:

http://visitukraine.today/blog/1974/conscription-age-cut-to-25-in-ukraine-what-will-change-and-how-will-it-affect-mobilisation

Here is a recent podcast I found from the BBC it details Ukrainian men fleeing serving in the Ukrainian Army by crossing the border to Romania:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p0fstmlm

As stated of course the problem of desertion or draft dodging is worse on the Russian side but it is of course happening on both sides.

[krimster2]

http://twitter.com/i/status/1675826262118481921

Zelensky's Victory Dance!!!

what ever you do - don't show this video to Putin!!!!
cuz this is the dewd who's beating the whole Russian army
and if Russians see this, it'll drive them INSANE!!!

[Chelseaboy]

Russian losses are 8-10 times higher than Ukrainians.The counter-offensive is going to plan-the Commander of the Ground Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi in an interview with ABC.


He also stated that Ukraine has not yet used it's main forces.
Bakhmut will definitely be released.
Today,the main goal is to deplete the enemy's forces in order to create a breakthrough on the front.
Russians are targeting western equipment.They try to destroy as much equipment as possible.This is a priority for them.


So,the orcs killed so far comes to 231,700....so that would mean the Ukrainians killed would be between 23,170 - 28,960.


Confirmed orc officers killed in Ukraine ,based on publicly available data from Russia via funeral notices,obituaries and news sites,now stands at 2,445 as at 3/7/23.

[Trenchcoat]

Russian losses are 8-10 times higher than Ukrainians.The counter-offensive is going to plan-the Commander of the Ground Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi in an interview with ABC.


He also stated that Ukraine has not yet used it's main forces.
Bakhmut will definitely be released.
Today,the main goal is to deplete the enemy's forces in order to create a breakthrough on the front.
Russians are targeting western equipment.They try to destroy as much equipment as possible.This is a priority for them.


So,the orcs killed so far comes to 231,700....so that would mean the Ukrainians killed would be between 23,170 - 28,960.


Confirmed orc officers killed in Ukraine ,based on publicly available data from Russia via funeral notices,obituaries and news sites,now stands at 2,445 as at 3/7/23.

Where do you get these figures from CB?

It would mean that each Ukrainian soldier has on average killed 8 - 10 orcs each and in return few of them getting killed. I would find those statistics quite astonishing. In Bakhmut against Wagner that may have been nearer the case as they were just throwing them in there to push Ukrainian troops back. However, from news reports apparently many Ukrainians lost their lives in Bakhmut as they were in many cases forced to confront the Wagner horde.

Both sides have artillery and while the Ukrainian artillery can fire further the orc artillery tends to be more numerous.

Western tanks I think have helped the Counter-offensive a little bit but I think there was too much emphasis on gaining western tanks by the Ukrainians. In this war the Ukrainians had already shown that tanks are too vulnerable to anti tank stuff. Possibly Ukraine might get lucky and find a weakness in the Russian lines and exploit it. I just wonder though if Russia has packed out there lines with superior troop numbers that may make it too difficult to fully crack them this time.

Essentially Ukraine likely has until the end of Summer to try and crack their lines so by October they need to have achieved that or likely stalemate until Spring next year. So likely a good 12-15 weeks or so for Ukraine to try and do it. Off course the West has to keep them stocked up with ammo and weapons all the while. Do if they don't do it this year then questions may start being asked over our ability to keep funding all the weapons & ammo supply whilst propping up Ukraine's economy too.

I still think that the likelihood of Russia opening up a second front particularly towards Lviv from Belarus is high. I don't see the pint in Wagner still recruiting for troops in Russia to go to Belarus otherwise. So possibly a joint Belarus/Wagner operation there.

I'm not ruling out Ukraine winning this war but I don't think they are having an easy time of it nor not sustaining heavy casualties.

[krimster2]

the russians value territory more than people
the ukrainians value people over territory

Ukraine doesn't have air superiority so it has a MUCH different fighting strategy then the armies i've served in, (USA/Israel)
Ukraine is fighting a non-asymetric war of attrition
meaning, it's depleting Russia's fighting resources much MORE than what Russia is depleting of Ukraine's
what that EXACT ratio is would be debatable and almost impossible to know
but you can see the truth of who values what and see how Ukraine is conducting this war in a very calculated and deliberate manner vrs whatever the hell it is that Russian "leadership" is doing

under putin's leadership the russian military was pillaged by oligarchs like everything else in russia
and this hollowed out military was further eroded by declining levels of training and service
this is not a military with any high standards at all and is almost worthless in actual combat, and best suited for civilian crowd control
russian leadership puts no value on them, and considers them totally expendable like toy soldiers in a war game

otoh, Zelensky meets with widows and orphans and gives them hugs and medals of honor
you can read his face and feel the pain like he does

cometh the hour, cometh the man
zelensky is the heroic court jester who slays the evil little dwarf king
watching Zelenky's films or music/dance videos 5 years ago on TV, who would have EVER imagined that this is the guy who's gonna take on putin mano-et-mano????
reality is much weirder than any story you ever read, innit?

[Admin]

the russians value territory more than people
the ukrainians value people over territory

Ukraine doesn't have air superiority so it has a MUCH different fighting strategy then the armies i've served in, (USA/Israel)
Ukraine is fighting a non-asymetric war of attrition
meaning, it's depleting Russia's fighting resources much MORE than what Russia is depleting of Ukraine's
what that EXACT ratio is would be debatable and almost impossible to know
but you can see the truth of who values what and see how Ukraine is conducting this war in a very calculated and deliberate manner vrs whatever the hell it is that Russian "leadership" is doing

under putin's leadership the russian military was pillaged by oligarchs like everything else in russia
and this hollowed out military was further eroded by declining levels of training and service
this is not a military with any high standards at all and is almost worthless in actual combat, and best suited for civilian crowd control
russian leadership puts no value on them, and considers them totally expendable like toy soldiers in a war game

otoh, Zelensky meets with widows and orphans and gives them hugs and medals of honor
you can read his face and feel the pain like he does

cometh the hour, cometh the man
zelensky is the heroic court jester who slays the evil little dwarf king
watching Zelenky's films or music/dance videos 5 years ago on TV, who would have EVER imagined that this is the guy who's gonna take on putin mano-et-mano????
reality is much weirder than any story you ever read, innit?

Great post. Well done krimster.

[krimster2]

accordin to the media
malchiki iz belogo poroshka
are already here in Babylon
first will be bolivian marchin powder THEN it'll be "somethin else"
the weakest link will be cut
the chain will no longer hold

putin needs to remove zelenksky and biden from the chess board - take 'em both completely outta the game
what grand master does he have to play by his side?
who can he trust to not phuque this up?

[Chelseaboy]

Where do you get these figures from CB?

It would mean that each Ukrainian soldier has on average killed 8 - 10 orcs each and in return few of them getting killed. I would find those statistics quite astonishing. In Bakhmut against Wagner that may have been nearer the case as they were just throwing them in there to push Ukrainian troops back. However, from news reports apparently many Ukrainians lost their lives in Bakhmut as they were in many cases forced to confront the Wagner horde.

Both sides have artillery and while the Ukrainian artillery can fire further the orc artillery tends to be more numerous.

Western tanks I think have helped the Counter-offensive a little bit but I think there was too much emphasis on gaining western tanks by the Ukrainians. In this war the Ukrainians had already shown that tanks are too vulnerable to anti tank stuff. Possibly Ukraine might get lucky and find a weakness in the Russian lines and exploit it. I just wonder though if Russia has packed out there lines with superior troop numbers that may make it too difficult to fully crack them this time.

Essentially Ukraine likely has until the end of Summer to try and crack their lines so by October they need to have achieved that or likely stalemate until Spring next year. So likely a good 12-15 weeks or so for Ukraine to try and do it. Off course the West has to keep them stocked up with ammo and weapons all the while. Do if they don't do it this year then questions may start being asked over our ability to keep funding all the weapons & ammo supply whilst propping up Ukraine's economy too.

I still think that the likelihood of Russia opening up a second front particularly towards Lviv from Belarus is high. I don't see the pint in Wagner still recruiting for troops in Russia to go to Belarus otherwise. So possibly a joint Belarus/Wagner operation there.

I'm not ruling out Ukraine winning this war but I don't think they are having an easy time of it nor not sustaining heavy casualties.

As i said the 8-10 times higher death figures for the orcs came from the Commander of the AFU Ground Forces ,Oleksandr Syrskyi,in his interview with ABC.


The 231,700 death toll for the orcs comes from the Ukrainian MOD.


I worked out the Ukrainian deaths from being 8-10 times less than the orcs,as stated by the AFU Ground Forces Commander.

[Chelseaboy]

the russians value territory more than people
the ukrainians value people over territory

Ukraine doesn't have air superiority so it has a MUCH different fighting strategy then the armies i've served in, (USA/Israel)
Ukraine is fighting a non-asymetric war of attrition
meaning, it's depleting Russia's fighting resources much MORE than what Russia is depleting of Ukraine's
what that EXACT ratio is would be debatable and almost impossible to know
but you can see the truth of who values what and see how Ukraine is conducting this war in a very calculated and deliberate manner vrs whatever the hell it is that Russian "leadership" is doing

under putin's leadership the russian military was pillaged by oligarchs like everything else in russia
and this hollowed out military was further eroded by declining levels of training and service
this is not a military with any high standards at all and is almost worthless in actual combat, and best suited for civilian crowd control
russian leadership puts no value on them, and considers them totally expendable like toy soldiers in a war game

otoh, Zelensky meets with widows and orphans and gives them hugs and medals of honor
you can read his face and feel the pain like he does

cometh the hour, cometh the man
zelensky is the heroic court jester who slays the evil little dwarf king
watching Zelenky's films or music/dance videos 5 years ago on TV, who would have EVER imagined that this is the guy who's gonna take on putin mano-et-mano????
reality is much weirder than any story you ever read, innit?

Yes,regarding Zelensky,he looked like he aged ten years before our eyes when he went to Bucha to see what the orcs had done to his people there.


I've also seen a couple of videos where he's visited petrol stations to and from his visits to the frontline,and it's conspicuous how his people react to him....all of them...troops and civilians...want photo ops with him....and they ALL want to give him a hug as it's clear he's suffering big-time.


He actually mentioned the last trip to the front in one of his evening addresses,thanking people for the very warm words and hugs.


I wonder how many of his Russian people want to give Putler a warm hug ?