The Struggle For Ukraine

[krimster2]

they tried so hard, and got so far
but in the end, it really didn't matter...

[Trenchcoat]

Ukrainians claim some kind of advance in the south, Russians claim some sort of advance in the north. In reality it seems that neither side are making any great advance and both seem to be in a stalemate situation. Many soldiers lives lost for a few hundred metres of dirt that essentially amount to nothing and may be retaken.

So for Ukraine too little progress too late. It's now seems down to a situation where big progress to advance in either side is unlikely and only tiny territory gains back and forth seem likely and pointless. Much like the WWI Western Front situation, both sides dug in having a go at each other but no real significant gains only significant loss of life.

So increasingly it seems many lives sacrificed over meaningless insignificant tiny gains of dirt back and forth. One news summing up of present situation:

http://euromaidanpress.com/2023/08/07/ukraine-advances-in-south-russia-assaults-in-east-over-past-week/

In reality no real significant advances by Ukraine nor Russia.

Ukraine really needs F16 fighter jets from the West to stand much chance of succeeding in its Counter-offensive. Otherwise it looks like Ukraine's Counter-offensive is doomed to failure and potentially Ukraine with it. I doubt Ukraine can hold up long term against Russia as I doubt the West will carry on supplying it over many years and propping up it's economy.

I think the West holding out on sending F16 jets is p*ssing around now which they can ill afford to do if they want Ukraine to win. Before I can understand the hesitation but now everything has moved on and it's an increasingly high stakes game, you don't take the risk and you lose the game.

[Chelseaboy]

I'd agree with all that.


There are some who believe this was the USA's plan from the start,and said so at the outset of the war...to create a stalemate in Ukraine which will drain the resources,influence and economy of Russia over many years.


I always wondered why during the rather long build-up of orc forces around Ukraine,NATO didn't send a peace-keeping force into Ukraine to guard the borders.


I don't believe Russia would have risked direct confrontation with NATO forces.


The constant delays from the USA in firstly training the Ukrainian pilots and support crews,and subsequently supplying the F-16's to Ukraine ,as if the USA wants to drag out the war and is rather enjoying watching the degrading of the Russian military and economy,seems to confirm the original suspicions of some.


I was reading that Russian oil exports to India have now fallen to pre-war levels,and countries that were pro-Russian are now turning against them,such as Brazil...so the, claimed by some, USA's end-game could well be working.


Russia is doing itself no favours by first of all starting the war,and now causing grain shortages in countries that were pro-Russian.


There are widespread reports of military recruitment centres throughout Russia being set on fire now,which could mean either people don't want to be called-up or hopefully the Russian population is finally starting to turn against Putler and his cronies.


One has to feel sympathy for the decent people in Ukraine ,and there are some,despite all the scumbag lowlife traitors,scammers and crooks there,who are suffering and dying as it seems their country is being used as a pawn in a larger game.


Of course this can all backfire horribly for the USA and the west if Putler starts a nuclear war in his growing frustration.

[Trenchcoat]

I'd agree with all that.


There are some who believe this was the USA's plan from the start,and said so at the outset of the war...to create a stalemate in Ukraine which will drain the resources,influence and economy of Russia over many years.


I always wondered why during the rather long build-up of orc forces around Ukraine,NATO didn't send a peace-keeping force into Ukraine to guard the borders.


I don't believe Russia would have risked direct confrontation with NATO forces.


The constant delays from the USA in firstly training the Ukrainian pilots and support crews,and subsequently supplying the F-16's to Ukraine ,as if the USA wants to drag out the war and is rather enjoying watching the degrading of the Russian military and economy,seems to confirm the original suspicions of some.


I was reading that Russian oil exports to India have now fallen to pre-war levels,and countries that were pro-Russian are now turning against them,such as Brazil...so the, claimed by some, USA's end-game could well be working.


Russia is doing itself no favours by first of all starting the war,and now causing grain shortages in countries that were pro-Russian.


There are widespread reports of military recruitment centres throughout Russia being set on fire now,which could mean either people don't want to be called-up or hopefully the Russian population is finally starting to turn against Putler and his cronies.


One has to feel sympathy for the decent people in Ukraine ,and there are some,despite all the scumbag lowlife traitors,scammers and crooks there,who are suffering and dying as it seems their country is being used as a pawn in a larger game.


Of course this can all backfire horribly for the USA and the west if Putler starts a nuclear war in his growing frustration.

I agree I think the western government's warnings of a Russian attack before the war though true were kind of stoking the hostilities of the two nations. Kind of felt like they were egging it on until it came to grief and the two sides were locked in a conflict that neither side could get out off due to increasing bitterness on either side that such conflict generates in addition to the territory disagreement neither wishes to give way on. The supply of anti tank NLAWS & Javelins before and during the early stages of the war helping to thwart Russia's plan for a quick invasion in addition to its own problems with its tanks clapping out.

It might seem a risky strategy since Russia could have taken Ukraine for all the west knows but like you say I think the west's key aim was to isolate Russia and take over it's markets. Europe was heavily dependent on Russia's oil & gas particularly Germany and now that has largely been cut western industries are developing to fill the gap.

Russia's economy is still in economic decline and is likely to year in year at least as long as this conflict continues:

http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-ruble-putin-ukraine-war-invasion-dollar-western-sanctions-2023-8

So Russia is growing a big budget deficit of billions each year due to extra spending on defense. How long the Russian economy can go before it all collapses in who knows. Odds are even after the end of the war whenever that will be Russia will have been kicked out of its key foreign markets and probably for the most part won't get back in. So the outlook for most Russians is bleak, back to the old collapsed economic years like after the end of the USSR.

Ukraine too I think will be in a situation if economic collapse it's using it's all to defend the invasion, it's budget and is being propped up by western governments. If it survives it will likely be in the hands of western governments and western companies I think if there is anything worthwhile there otherwise probably just a forward NATO staging post.

[krimster2]

OMG!!!!   
the part about ukraine begins at about the 23:00 min mark
A republican who's not a Pootin or Trump lover

[Trenchcoat]

Looks like as thought earlier as Ukraine gains small amounts of dirt territory in the south, Russia gains small amounts of dirt territory in the north:

Via Euronews: Ukraine war: Russia 'improves position', West lining Putin's coffers, German army staff 'spying'
http://www.euronews.com/2023/08/10/ukraine-war-west-lining-putins-coffers-german-army-staff-spying-for-russia-crimea-drone-at

By the end of Summer unless something big happens that is looking unlikely at the moment it will roughly be the same amount of ground gained an lost, so a stalemate. If Russia makes an significant enough ground in the north more Ukrainian forces are going to need to be diverted there possibly forcing an early end to Ukraine's southern Counter-offensive.

[Trenchcoat]

Looks like all the early excitement phase of the war is now over and the invasion of Ukraine is turning from war, war to bore, bore. Seems Ukraine & Russia are now locked in a pretty much stalemate situation that could go on for many years in theory. This professor guy seems to sum up the situation fairly well I think:

http://unherd.com/2023/08/why-ukraines-offensive-has-stalled/

Looks like the Russian economy will keep together enough to keep going for sone years although debt build up and harsh economic climate won't be kind on the Russian people. Ukraine meanwhile is largely backed by the west and my guess is they will have to hope on continuing support to defend itself. In that I think the EU is entirely committed with Ukraine & Russia being in its borders. The UK will likely continue its support too as while not right on its doorstep is as near as. That and sone possibly support from the rest of the world will probably keep Ukraine in the game especially if Russia starts to struggle to keep up with supplying it's military due to cost. Overall it looks like the war in Ukraine could be going on for some time.

[krimster2]

di rusn
לרוסים יש סוד
don't be worried tovarisch, you're gonna hear about it...

bribing the head of the FBI's Russian cyber intelligence dept
and using imprisoned hackers to hack the DNC's emails
to make the 2016 presidential more to Russia's liking
was PURE freaking genuis

but you ain't seen nothin holmes
what if....
what if...
the war was "for show" and crisis management was the plan all along...

but...
the worst is yet to come...
and not just for the slavic brothers cain and abel
the show is over-running it's budget, so they're gonna do the grand finale, earlier than the script called for

Putin is gonna let out ALL the Devils to do his bidding
that he locked up in cages

but the devils don't obey anyone, least of all him
bar-dak baby
putin don't care
cuz he knows it's over
but...
he doesn't want that condition to only apply to himself

it's gonna hurt
it's gonna leave a permanent scar on the planet
another "bad spot"
like all the rest I've been to

the places where the dead are all buried
as pure as the silence of Katryn

at AUSCHWITZ-BIRKENAU
you can rub your finger briskly over a piece of old wood in a barracks (one of hundreds)
and you can smell 1944....
I will never forget THAT smell

that piece of wood combined with the right hallucinogens
is the perfect combination to experience history in first-person
without having to testify at Nuremberg

Kabbalah magik tricks
performed by a Kabbalah magician

[Trenchcoat]

One of the more mundane ways this war might possibly in 2024 or thereafter if the stalemate continues is a peace treaty likely agreeing that:

1). Russia holds in and annexes the territory it is currently occupying, the Crimea, the areas of the Donbass and Luhansk including Mariupol & Melitopol.

2). It is accepted that Ukraine will join NATO and possibly/probably later the EU.

Ukraine of course want the whole of Ukraine back but they are now reliant on western weapons supply so they no longer call the shots the west does. The west saying to Ukraine that they can't supply weapons for much longer so Ukraine will have to come to terms will push Ukraine to such an agreement rather than losing the whole of their country. Odds are with a stalemate situation continuing next year the west will get fed up of supplying Ukraine with weapons from their existing armies and propping the Ukraine government up financially. No matter who is in power in the west continuing an expensive war campaign that's bogged down in stalemate probably will get to be seen more as an Election liability which most politicians will want to avoid.

The Russians meanwhile will see that the west isn't prepared to let the whole if Ukraine fall but is prepared to come to an agreement. Russia will get the territory it now occupied (roughly) but knows that it doesn't have the power to break the stalemate unless they wish to go to extremes, so far they have shown that they don't wish to go that far. So Russia doesn't walk away empty handed, it gains territory which it claims is most Russian, it gains more Black Sea ports and crucially it gets the land bridge it so wanted to Crimea.

Neither side will like that they didn't get all that they had their heart set upon but both sides will likely see it as the only logical and necessary solution.

To get there both sides will have to become tired of the war, their country's and economy busted up enough by it and their military knackered out both by the fighting and by their equipment supply.

Other ends to the war are of course possible and Russia might yet still use more extreme measures, but I see this ending as the most likely and plausible whether it happens next year or in the years after. Now if someone can direct me to a bookies where I might make good money on such a prediction

[krimster2]

Shoigu visited Russia's nuclear test facility recently....
he's validating that there won't be any surprises

IMHO, this is the solution of last resort
it will not be applied before Putin's election in March 7, 2024
and it also depends on the probability of Trump being elected to replace Biden, which normally would be a remote possibility in nov 2024
but the Russians will make sure, the 2024 election cycle is not normal

the cost of the Ukrainian war will be one of the main republican topics in 2024
russians are furiously manipulating social media to reduce American support for the war, and it's working

by the end of the month, Trump will have accumulated over 100 criminal charges
plus the civil penalty for rape and twice impeached
if this doesn't scream "Presidential Material" I don't know what does

man republicans are amazingly astute with their political choices, LOL
Ron Desantis LOL!!!

american oligarchs need to find better political "front-men" other than Trump and Desantis
to convince the masses that the billionaires all deeply care about their concerns
and aren't just ripping them off

the worst thing that can possibly happen to oligarchs is for the working class to "wake up" and be woke
hence the universal war of authoritarians vrs woke philosophy

[Boethius]

The US federal government could have its own social media strategy.  But, this war won't be what determines who is the next president.  Economic factors and public safety issues will be bigger issues.

[Trenchcoat]

Shoigu visited Russia's nuclear test facility recently....
he's validating that there won't be any surprises

IMHO, this is the solution of last resort
it will not be applied before Putin's election in March 7, 2024
and it also depends on the probability of Trump being elected to replace Biden, which normally would be a remote possibility in nov 2024
but the Russians will make sure, the 2024 election cycle is not normal

the cost of the Ukrainian war will be one of the main republican topics in 2024
russians are furiously manipulating social media to reduce American support for the war, and it's working

by the end of the month, Trump will have accumulated over 100 criminal charges
plus the civil penalty for rape and twice impeached
if this doesn't scream "Presidential Material" I don't know what does

man republicans are amazingly astute with their political choices, LOL
Ron Desantis LOL!!!

That I can believe. However Trump well I don't get the time to follow American politics closely but it seems that Trump is facing a tidal wave of criminal charges. From what I saw the other day on the news it's sounds like they ain't all trumped up charges either It sounded like the prosecutors have real evidence and are serious. I didn't get the impression that they were just trying to sling anything at him on an axe to grind basis. I'm really starting to doubt if Trump will make it to the Presidential Election at this rate, I personally think he will be taken down with it all. It just sounds like to me that the prosecutors have really done their job and are certain he has committed these crimes. I don't think you have anything to worry about Trump getting off them or getting into the White House again.

That's not to say another Republican might not get in. I think even if not Trump another Republican could get into the White House. Like you say if the American people move against supporting the war in Ukraine then unless Biden moves with them he will be very vulnerable to being ousted I reckon.

[krimster2]

Trump is a political absurdity
which actually suits the period of history we find ourselves in
what ISN'T absurd in this timeline?

Trump's fundraising off this, and that's his primary purpose. GRIFTING!!!
Once it's clear he's not gonna win, he'll fly to Brazil for "medical treatment", and hopefully this'll be the last we ever hear of him, after he goes into exile
Democrats may substitute the Gov of Calif for Biden depending on how well he does in the upcoming Desantis debate and how well Biden is publicly faring with Hunter and his old age...

[krimster2]

infrastructure is collapsing EVERYWHERE in Russia
that's what happens when someone in power steals all the money, and doesn't give a damn what happens...

as a result of this, a damn collapsed in Primorsky Krai Russia, flooding everbody below
but when I was in Russia a few yrs ago, I saw much, much worse negligence in the far east
all those chickens are coming home to roost
soon there will be massive flocks of them


see how happy everyone in Russia is?
and not a damn thing these people can do about it

http://twitter.com/i/status/1691123107472330752

[krimster2]

if Putina loses the war (he chickens out over mini/mikro nukes) then eventually, he will be replaced by someone even further to the right, who will seize power by destroying the oligarchy and re-creates the socialist republic of Russia

nuclear war ain't gonna be like ya'll see on TV...
Trump revealed some details to Woodward, about America's micro-nukes
Trump is WRONG when he claims that this technology is exclusively American
how do I know?
cuz I bought the Soviet technical informatze for making them (don't worry, I don't have the materials) and my plan for sending my youngest daughter to Russian nuke school, is off the table, she just returned from Israel after graduating this year from Technion

soviets did huge number of tests of imploding sub-critical masses of uranium/plutonium starting in the 50s
by the 70s they figured out how to make the secret sauce that would allow them to implode < 10 grams of plutonium + deuterium/tritium into a 10 ton TNT equivalent explosion, that would fit in your hand that uses less than a half-kilo, of custom high density high explosive for compression

very small amounts of radiation
the USA had a mini-nuke called the W54 back in the early 60s, that weighed 70 pounds, cuz of the shielding, and the fact that it used 60 yr old tech, same design today would weigh 50% less
the Russian version (no shielding) would weigh half that
and that's a 60 yr old mini-nuke

a mikro-nuke is light years ahead of this, cuz it uses a different configuration than the football shaped large sub-critical mass configuration used in the W54
the mikro-nuke has the plutonium in a hollow sphere and the "layers" are configured differently than the W54
Soviets had a 100 pages of differential equations describing the compression of mikro-nukes vrs standard nukes, all done without computers from the early 50s
impressive, Moscow State University is

[Trenchcoat]

if Putina loses the war (he chickens out over mini/mikro nukes) then eventually, he will be replaced by someone even further to the right, who will seize power by destroying the oligarchy and re-creates the socialist republic of Russia

nuclear war ain't gonna be like ya'll see on TV...
Trump revealed some details to Woodward, about America's micro-nukes
Trump is WRONG when he claims that this technology is exclusively American
how do I know?
cuz I bought the Soviet technical informatze for making them (don't worry, I don't have the materials) and my plan for sending my youngest daughter to Russian nuke school, is off the table, she just returned from Israel after graduating this year from Technion

soviets did huge number of tests of imploding sub-critical masses of uranium/plutonium starting in the 50s
by the 70s they figured out how to make the secret sauce that would allow them to implode < 10 grams of plutonium + deuterium/tritium into a 10 ton TNT equivalent explosion, that would fit in your hand that uses less than a half-kilo, of custom high density high explosive for compression

very small amounts of radiation
the USA had a mini-nuke called the W54 back in the early 60s, that weighed 70 pounds, cuz of the shielding, and the fact that it used 60 yr old tech, same design today would weigh 50% less
the Russian version (no shielding) would weigh half that
and that's a 60 yr old mini-nuke

a mikro-nuke is light years ahead of this, cuz it uses a different configuration than the football shaped large sub-critical mass configuration used in the W54
the mikro-nuke has the plutonium in a hollow sphere and the "layers" are configured differently than the W54
Soviets had a 100 pages of differential equations describing the compression of mikro-nukes vrs standard nukes, all done without computers from the early 50s
impressive, Moscow State University is

Hence my Gennady Zyuganov suggestion, could be someone else though but possibly similar take.

Here is another guy who followed my alternative ending for the Ukraine war and wasn't thanked for it:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/16/nato-official-suggests-ukraine-could-give-up-territory-in-exchange-for-membership

So Krim, where do you think Russia will be aiming their mini nukes? My guess is Ukraine is high up on their hit list.

[krimster2]

targets?
Zelensky when he's visiting the front
large masses of ukrainian troops
and then every single power plant in Ukraine
this will be next year at the earliest

Nato will struggle over the correct response
and will likely under-respond due to fear of escalation
and Putin will accept the losses
and then just use even more mikro-nukes

after March 7, 2024
Russia is gonna kick it up a notch

[Trenchcoat]

targets?
Zelensky when he's visiting the front
large masses of ukrainian troops
and then every single power plant in Ukraine
this will be next year at the earliest

Nato will struggle over the correct response
and will likely under-respond due to fear of escalation
and Putin will accept the losses
and then just use even more mikro-nukes

after March 7, 2024
Russia is gonna kick it up a notch

Yeah I'm surprised that Putler didn't hit Ukrainian troops first with some type of mini nuke or similar devastating weapons. That would break Ukraine's troop lines so allowing Russian forces to punch through and get around the back of remaining troops and destroy Ukrainian troop morale. He could again had the conflict over quickly. Sure the international community would condemn him but they are doing that already but it would also shock fear into them.

The easiest victory Russia messed up at the beginning by not invading in the west of Ukraine to cut off its land border. The more mess ups Russia makes the greater force it needs to win.

[krimster2]

Putina is "nationalistic" but he's not a nationalist
he doesn't actually care AT ALL about the welfare of Russians

he feeds their prejudices, in order to impose his authority and control
under the disguise of "patriotism"
the russian people are nothing more than serfs to him

this is very similar to how the republican party panders to the prejudices of southern white christians , because no economic adjustments are necessary from the upper classes in a culture war, so they create a culture war to avoid a class war

economic and social conditions in Russia are in a continuous decline, the GDP has decreased about 20% since 2014, after the invasion of Crimea by "little green men", who were invited in to Crimea thanks to "fake electors" voting in the Crimean Parliment...
Fake Electors, from Putin and then Trump, hmmmm coincidence of course

the intersection of russian gangsta capitalists and american financial interests is a much bigger threat to American society than men in drag, I know some of ya'll will find that hard to believe

I know, some of ya'll are thinkin, the Russians are white, how could other white people be more a threat compared to men wearing dresses? or students learning the truth about slavery and racism?

because if the rich lose control over the culture, they understand the culture will come after their privilige sooner or later
and the rich in the USA, like the rich everywhere else, all look down on the poor, that THEY create

In Russia, this means that if Putina fails and Russia has a "hard landing" then the whole oligarchy, i.e. "Putin's People" will all go down with him
this is why oligarchs have no choice but to fight to the last russian (while their kids are abroad)
Putina, at some point next year, will realize the risk of using mini/micro nukes, will be less than the risk of NOT using them

NATO will NOT respond with nukes, if he does this
this whole thing has been planned out by Russian focus groups and war games
the Russian military exercises held before the Ukrainian invasion
was an exact copy of the invasion

there will be signs

[Chelseaboy]

Putina is "nationalistic" but he's not a nationalist
he doesn't actually care AT ALL about the welfare of Russians

he feeds their prejudices, in order to impose his authority and control
under the disguise of "patriotism"
the russian people are nothing more than serfs to him

this is very similar to how the republican party panders to the prejudices of southern white christians , because no economic adjustments are necessary from the upper classes in a culture war, so they create a culture war to avoid a class war

economic and social conditions in Russia are in a continuous decline, the GDP has decreased about 20% since 2014, after the invasion of Crimea by "little green men", who were invited in to Crimea thanks to "fake electors" voting in the Crimean Parliment...
Fake Electors, from Putin and then Trump, hmmmm coincidence of course

the intersection of russian gangsta capitalists and american financial interests is a much bigger threat to American society than men in drag, I know some of ya'll will find that hard to believe

I know, some of ya'll are thinkin, the Russians are white, how could other white people be more a threat compared to men wearing dresses? or students learning the truth about slavery and racism?

because if the rich lose control over the culture, they understand the culture will come after their privilige sooner or later
and the rich in the USA, like the rich everywhere else, all look down on the poor, that THEY create

In Russia, this means that if Putina fails and Russia has a "hard landing" then the whole oligarchy, i.e. "Putin's People" will all go down with him
this is why oligarchs have no choice but to fight to the last russian (while their kids are abroad)
Putina, at some point next year, will realize the risk of using mini/micro nukes, will be less than the risk of NOT using them

NATO will NOT respond with nukes, if he does this
this whole thing has been planned out by Russian focus groups and war games
the Russian military exercises held before the Ukrainian invasion
was an exact copy of the invasion

there will be signs

I strongly suspect you and Trench will be in for a huge shock if Russia uses any kind of nukes...regarding NATO's response.


Putler has been made fully aware of what the response will be,which is why he hasn't used them yet....despite all the Russian threats of using them.


At least Trench wouldn't have to worry about getting hold of a woman anymore.

[Trenchcoat]

I strongly suspect you and Trench will be in for a huge shock if Russia uses any kind of nukes...regarding NATO's response.


Putler has been made fully aware of what the response will be,which is why he hasn't used them yet....despite all the Russian threats of using them.


At least Trench wouldn't have to worry about getting hold of a woman anymore.

That's what I love about you CB ever the over optimistic NATO response guy lol

Sure NATO in theory have a response, fire back in a war in which they are apparently not involved. Hello to nuclear mutually assured destruction or sit there and issue condemnations and avoid mutually assured destruction.

My guess is that they will not go MAD and chose the second option. Putler as Krim has rightly pointed out by that stage will be in a no lose only choice position so will use the mini nukes and hope for the best. NATO by sitting on the sidelines before the invasion have already signalled their response well in advance - they are not involved and will not get involved. NATO are just interested in securing it's members security of which Ukraine never got to be signed up to. Sure NATO is tacitly supportive of Ukraine but Ukraine is not a member so they aren't willing to treat them as if they are.

I don't think it's 100 percent the outcome yet that Russia will use mini nukes. Other paths are conceivably open but I think the mini nuke option is a big likelihood. Ukraine & Russia could come to peace terms along present territory lines. Both are opposed to this at the moment as Ukraine wants all its territory back and for Russia is it enough as once Ukraine is signed up to NATO with NATO forces Russia cannot re-invade Ukraine. Russia could instead invade Georgia, the Stans, etc but little Putler had his heart set on capturing Odessa and the whole of Ukraine. My guess is Russia might possibly settle for what they have as they wanted a land bridge to Crimea, and the Donbass to break away from Ukraine. I think Ukraine will only sign up to such a deal if the west forces their hand by threatening to stop supplying Ukraine.

Other ways it could end is a Ukraine breakthrough in their Counter-offensive but that is looking more & more unlikely. They only have about a couple of months left before winter sets in which is likely to put pay to any further counterattack untill Spring. I think they would still be best off trying to counterattack in the winter if they can at all but their odds aren't likely good. Come next Spring and Russia will have likely reinforced their positions still further and bulked up their troops. Result a complete stalemate, Russia may get Belarus in to try and put pressure on Ukraine from the north but if Belarus can't get past Ukraine's defences their then we're back to the mini nuke option.

Other ways it could end is Russia falling apart economically and hence politically also. That could be a possibility with the economy being so bad in Russia and getting worse all the time. When the country starts falling apart people start constructing their own groups and power bases and breakaway from the existing system. We'll just have to see in that one but unless it happens suddenly it could push Putler closer to the mini nuke option.

I don't think the mini nuke option will take many females as it will be mostly Ukrainian soldiers, critical Infrastructure it will be aimed at like Krim states. Even with Ukrainian soldiers it won't be used to kill them all more tactically to break their lines and large group formations to crack the Ukrainian army  so Russian forces can push through sending Ukrainian forces left into disarray, panic and headlong retreat. Of course after this the big downside is that Ukraine will be part of Russia so entry visa cost for us if westerners are still allowed to visit since use of mini nuke many western countries may block any tourism to Russia possibly. That's not a great outcome for us so I'm hoping that an alternative outcome though perhaps less likely where at least a large chunk of Ukraine survives will come about.

[Chelseaboy]

Trench,


          You can sit there and try and kid yourself that there will be no response from NATO if Russia uses a nuke...if it makes you feel better.


The reality is that NATO cannot possibly allow Russia to use a nuke without responding.


If they do,then it shows Russia that they can do as they please to whoever they want...so NATO cannot allow that to happen.


The civilized world cannot allow a rogue nation to dictate to the rest of the world how things will be by using nukes.


What would stop Russia or China invading Japan or China taking Taiwan...if NATO uses your reaction and says we won't do anything if Japan or Taiwan get nuked because they're not in NATO ?


Maybe Russia would fancy Australia and New Zealand too.


How about Russia threatening to nuke the whole of south and central America if they don't do whatever Russia desires...there goes Krims Puerto Rico fantasy,as the orcs take it over....whilst the USA says "they're not NATO countries so we won't do anything " Some nice Russian nuclear missile bases in Cuba right on the USA's doorstep.


Heck,Russia can just take over Mexico whilst the USA sit's on it's hands saying "not NATO so we mustn't get involved".


Putler would love a nuclear missile base ..his nukes pointed at the UK...in Ireland too.We won't prevent it because Ireland isn't in NATO.


Come on down Vlad..it's yours for the taking boyo.


Krim was adamant Russia would nuke Ukraine last autumn...so why didn't they ? It's been almost a year since then after all.


Russia keeps threatening NATO with escalation if red lines are crossed..so NATO gives them the finger and crosses those red lines....and nothing happens except for the normal firing of Russian missiles into Ukrainian civilians.


Russia is like you and Krim...full of bluster ..and that's because it has been made clear to Putler and his Kremlin regime exactly what is going to happen if Russia uses a nuke.


By the way i wasn't referring to Ukrainian women, or any women, when i said you won't have to worry about getting hold of a woman anymore if Russia uses a nuke.

[krimster2]

OMG!  you mean no more Paul McCartney concerts in Moscow??!!
l'horreur!!

MAD is about symmetry
Russians are all about asymmetry

Ukraine cannot yet respond to such an attack
NATO will not reply in kind
attack was not on their territory, there won't be ANY support for this kind of escalation, or ANY escalation

Nato's threat to Russia over nukes is NOT real
at best, NATO will launch a limited attack on Russian airfields in Ukraine
and now that'll give Putin the excuse he needs to kick it up a notch
and put halters on every single Russian and have them pull barges on the Volga while humming a snappy little tune

and here, he'll gather the Oswalds amd Timothy McVeigh's
and turn his enemies against themselves
this plan is ALREADY underway, the Russians who are part of this plan
are ALREADY here on the east coast

Putina can absorb the small NATO response
and can easily reply to it
he holds the entire population of Ukraine as hostages
after the NATO attack, he'll punish Ukrainian civilians by nuking a small town
and tell NATO, every attack will cost a Ukrainian town
how many attacks after that?

this is what asymmetry means
Russians WILL kill civilains with nukes
but the west won't in this context
MAD does not apply here
in fact MAD prevents the west from using nukes
and the Russians have figured this all out


you Anglais need to understand
my visions are up for interpretation
sometimes the interpretation is mistranslated

for example, the visions I had of Moscva burning, I thought was related to Covid
turns out it wasn't...

GRU is switching from espionage to sabotage
just like the Chinese

the public isn't aware of the war that's ALREADY happening, on our own soil
Chinese focusing on west coast, russians on the east
they're NOT just stealing anymore
the change in mission has already happened...
here come the sharks....

after next year, Russian oligarchs won't be fighting over the spoils of Ukraine
they'll be fighting for their own future survival
when they are trapped like this
then you'll see what they are capable of

Puerto Rico?
no Costa Rica!
Puerto Rico is US territory with US laws
Costa Rica, has a "no extradition to the USA" policy
and I like it more than Brazil
it's a nice place, Russians gotta go through USA to get Los Latinos Americanos
Russia is already well connected to the cartels in central America, buying/selling weapons/narkotika
eventually, they'll "influence" them
into becoming part of the team....

how do I know?
Buenos días, muchachos!!!
hahaha

all the armies of the earth, are not as powerful as an idea whose time has come
and the plan to destigmatize the use of WMDs is gonna happen sooner than later
supporters of this are everywhere

in an artillery war, after Russia loses all it's artillery
WMDs are all it has left
the oligarchs ain't gonna hand over the keys
they'd rather drive the lada over the cliff

ergo, Ukraine is gonna get sued by the law firm of Nuke and Novichok
and the rest of ya'll are gonna STFU

WMDs ain't armageddon, especially leetle ones
they're the idea whose time has come
how long didja all think you could keep the jins in their prisons...
before somebody with absolutely nothin left to lose releases them?

once ya'll get over the shock, then you're gonna start thinking about how to gain advantage in the new world order
bottom line...
in the future, all militaries are scaled back, and small WMDs are routinely used in warfare
things tend to evolve towards efficiency
contrast the cost of one mini nuke and a robot vrs a divsion of conscripted soldiers

[Boethius]

It won't necessarily be NATO, but the USA at a minimum, will respond to a nuclear attack.  The message is not just for Russia.  What message is sent to Iran and North Korea if a nuclear attack is allowed to occur with no response.


I don't share krimster's view of Russia as some powerful force.  It has used Western greed to its advantage, but I tend to believe most people, even politicians, can't be bought off if it's not in their ultimate interest.

[krimster2]

why do you think Russia has been transferring all it's nuclear technology to Iran and China in the first place?
when Russia makes their move, ya think Iran and China won't join in and make their moves, as well?
three acting jointly increases their strength compared to just one

USA no longer has the means for more than a short fight with just one enemy. they don't have the personnel or material to fight three simultaneously, and can't fight one, for more than a few weeks

the USA does not want to use tactical nukes, tried getting rid of them
Russians did the opposite they dominate this field the way the west dominates the economic field

they'll fight using the tools that give them the greatest advantage, nothing else they have gives them this kinda leverage
after next year, this is the ONLY option the oligarchs have to survive the crisis they created

there ain't gonna be no happy ending to this story
only the first chapter of Ukraine's suffering has been written
new chapters and volumes are coming from the same author

this is a brutal jungle fight, that will be fought to the "finish" between a predator and its prey
nature favors the predator
there's only gonna be one survivor here
when it's all over

i'm just a "friendly naturalist" tellin ya'll it like it is
nobody likes to see the cute little animals devoured by fierce beasts
but it happens

denial, ain't a river in egypt
ya'll need to face what's coming...
and not look away
and pretend that it's not

the thing that is NOT gonna happen
is for the oligarchs to give up
they're homocidal maniacs and not suicidal
they love themselves too much for that

killing hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians to maintain their privilige
is a virtue and not a sin to them
ain't no angels gonna stand in the way of the devils
gott is nicht mit uns