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Author Topic: Are you Marriage Material, or Divorce Material?  (Read 3647 times)

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Offline Bee Farmer

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Are you Marriage Material, or Divorce Material?
« on: January 29, 2019, 06:12:15 PM »
Here are some marriage and divorce statistics that no one likes talking about.  For many people, it paints a rather grim picture about their prospects for a happy, lifelong marriage.  (Primarily based upon US data.)
People don't like having to face reality, and admit that because of bad life choices they have made, the odds are stacked against them.  And the things many people look for, are not conducive to successful marriages.  And the things that often do result in lifelong marriages, are things people don't want to have to deal with during the dating and relationship building process.


Researchers estimate that 41 percent of all first marriages end in divorce.

60 percent of second marriages end in divorce.

73 percent of all third marriages end in divorce.

Wives are the ones who most often file for divorce at 66 percent on average. That figure has soared to nearly 75 percent in some years.

The groups with the most prolific experience of marriage ending in divorce are downscale adults (adults making less than $20,000 annually)  (39 percent), Baby Boomers (38 percent), those aligned with a non-Christian faith (38 percent), African-Americans (36 percent), and people who consider themselves to be liberal on social and political matters (37 percent).

Among the population segments with the lowest likelihood of having been divorced subsequent to marriage are Catholics (28 percent), evangelicals (26 percent), upscale adults (adults making more than $75,000 annually) (22 percent), Asians (20 percent) and those who deem themselves to be conservative on social and political matters (28%).

The divorce rate among people 50 and older has doubled in the past 20 years, according to research by Bowling Green State University.

The divorce rate among couples where one spouse is in jail or prison for one year or more is 80 percent for men and close to 100 percent for women.

Being overweight or obese significantly impairs sexual quality of life and marital happiness.

Female obesity rate plus about 10% = total % of marriages ending in divorce.

The number one marriage killer is contempt. Things that signal you're disgusted with your partner are all super toxic for a relationship, like hostile humor, name-calling, eye-rolling. But there's also some hope here, too: if you want a relationship to last, be kind to the person you're with. In a sense, it's as simple as that.


What Makes People More or Less Likely to Divorce?

48 percent of those who marry before the age of 18 are likely to divorce within 10 years, compared to 25 percent of those who marry after the age of 25.

60 percent of couples married between the age of 20-25 will end in divorce.

Those who wait to marry until they are over 25 years old are 24 percent less likely to get divorced.

If both you and your partner have had previous marriages, you are 90 percent more likely to get divorced than if this had been the first marriage for both of you.

If a person has strong religious beliefs, the risk of divorce is 14 percent less and having no religious affiliation makes you 14 percent more likely to get divorced.

Those with “below average” IQs are 50 percent more likely to be divorced than those with “above average” IQs.

70 percent of couples now cohabit prior to marriage.

60 percent of cohabiting couples will eventually marry. However, living together prior to marriage can increase the chance of getting divorced by as much as 40 percent.

If you are a female serial cohabiter – a woman who has lived with more than one partner before your first marriage – then you’re 40 percent more likely to get divorced than women who have never done so.

If a husband is nine or more years older than his wife or two or more years younger, the risk of getting a divorce is twice that of couples who are closer in age.

A study published by researchers from Emory University following three thousand couples found that those who dated three or more years were 39 percent less likely to get divorced than those who dated less than a year. Couples that dated for two years were 20 percent less likely to split.


Your Sexual History

Women who lost their virginity as a teenager are more than twice as likely to get divorced in the first 5 years of marriage than women who waited until age 18 or older.

A 2011 study at the University of Iowa found that for both men and women, the loss of virginity before age 18 was correlated with a greater number of occurrences of divorce within the first 10 years of marriage.

When compared to women who began sexual activity in their early 20s, girls who initiated sexual activity at ages 13 or 14 were less than half as likely to be in stable marriages in their 30s. – (in this study a stable marriage was defined as a marriage of over five years).

In a study conducted in the United States, 61 percent of men and 12 percent of women born prior to 1910 admitted to having premarital sex; this gender disparity may have been caused by cultural double standards regarding the admission of sexual activity or by men frequenting prostitutes.

A majority of women during the 1920s under the age of 30 were nonetheless virgins at marriage, however, and half of those who were not only had sex with their fiancés.

In the 1970's, 64% of women had 0 or 1 sexual partner prior to marriage, and 6% had 6 or more partners.  In the 2010's, 27% had 0 or 1 prior sexual partner, and 32% had 6 partners or more.




Women who marry as virgins are far more likely than other women to attend church at least once a week. It’s also noteworthy that virgin marriages increasingly became the domain of religious women between the 1980s and 2000s—and during the same years, the divorce rate for virgin brides continued to drop. These findings make sense in light of the fact that people who attend church frequently have lower divorce rates than do non-participants.

Women who marry having had just one sex partner are unlikely to have had children with another man. Getting married with a child already in tow has a profound negative effect on marital happiness. And marriages preceded by nonmarital fertility have disproportionately high divorce rates.

The odds of divorce are lowest with zero or one premarital partners.

Since the 2000's, 3% of marriages are to a virgin bride.  These marriages have a 6% divorce rate.  The divorce rate has been dropping since the 1980's, when it was 11%.


Your Parent’s Relationship

If your parents are happily married, your risk of divorce decreases by 14 percent.

If your parents married others after divorcing, you’re 91 percent more likely to get divorced.

The risk of divorce is 50 percent higher when one spouse comes from a divorced home and 200 percent higher when both partners do.

In addition, children of divorce are 50 percent more likely to marry another child of divorce.

Certain studies have shown that daughters of divorced parents have a 60 percent higher divorce rate in marriages than children of non-divorced parents while sons have a 35 percent higher rate.


If you Have Kids or Not

The divorce rate for couples with children is as much as 40 percent lower than for those without children.

According to the U.S. Census, the percent of childless American women (ages 15-44) increased a staggering amount in just two generations: from 35 percent in 1976 to 47 percent in 2010.

If you have a childless marriage. The absence of children leads to loneliness, and at least 66 percent of divorced couples in the United States are childless.

Having a baby before marriage can increase the risk of divorce by 24 percent.

In 1940, 3.8% of births were to unwed mothers. In 1974, 13.2 percent, and in 2015, the figure was 40.3 percent.

But a whopping 55 percent of 28- to 34-year-old Millennials choose to have their first child before marriage.

Those who have children before or instead of marriage are more likely to wind up in poverty than their peers who follow what’s called the “success sequence,” the report says. That sequence is: Get an education and a job before getting married and having a kid.



Your Finances and Their Effect on Divorce Rates

An annual income of over $50,000 can decrease the risk of divorce by as much as 30% versus those with an income of under $25k.

Feeling that one’s spouse spent money foolishly increased the likelihood of divorce 45 percent for both men and women.

Couples that argue about finances at least once a week are 30 more likely to get divorced.


Addiction and Divorce

Couples are an astonishing 76-95% more likely to get divorced if only one of them smokes. The amount increases when the wife is the partner with the habit.

While couples who both smoke have it a bit better, a 1998 study found they are still 53% more likely than non-smoking couples to end their marriage.

Each liter of alcohol consumed raises the chance of divorce by 20%! Factor in that the average American drinks 9.4 liters of Alcohol per year, raising their divorce likely hood by 188%!


Divorce, Child Support and Child Custody

Forty-three percent of children in the United States are being raised without their fathers.

When the parents are happily married, the risk of divorce of their children decreases by 14 percent.


Effects on Children

Children who live with a single parent that has a live-in partner are at the highest risk of sexual abuse: they are 20 times more likely to be victims of sexual abuse than children living with both biological parents (Sedlack et al, 2010).

Children whose parents are unemployed have about two times the rate of child abuse and two to three times the rate of neglect than children with employed parents.

Living with their married biological parents places kids at the lowest risk for child abuse and neglect while living with a single parent and a live-in partner increased the risk of abuse and neglect to more than eight times that of other children.

Compared to children living with both biological parents, children in stepfamilies tend to have more struggles with behavior problems, emotional well-being, and academic achievement.

Children whose parents have divorced are more likely to experience injury, asthma, headaches and speech impediments than children whose parents have remained married.

Following a divorce, children are fifty percent more likely to develop health problems than two parent families.

Teenagers in single-parent families and in blended families are 300% more likely to need psychological help within any given year than teens from intact, nuclear families.

Children from divorced homes have more psychological problems than children who lost a parent to death.

Adult children of divorce tend to have: lower paying jobs and less college than their parents; unstable father-child relationships; a history of vulnerability to drugs and alcohol in adolescence; fears about commitment and divorce; and negative memories of the legal system that forced custody and visitation.

Individuals whose parents were divorced had a 54% higher probability of being overweight and were 89% more likely to be abdominally obese.



The Financial Effects of Divorce

The average total cost of divorce in the United States is $15,000.

Families with children that were not poor before the divorce see their income drop as much as 50 percent.

Almost 50 percent of the parents with children that are going through a divorce move into poverty after the divorce.

60% of people under poverty guidelines are divorced women and children.


The Toll a Divorce Takes

A new study entitled “Divorce and Death” shows that broken marriages can kill at the same rate as smoking cigarettes. Indications that the risk of dying is a full 23 percent higher among divorcées than married people.

One researcher determined that a single divorce costs state and federal governments about $30,000, based on such things as the higher use of food stamps and public housing as well as increased bankruptcies and juvenile delinquency.

The nation’s 1.4 million divorces in 2002 are estimated to have cost the taxpayers more than $30 billion.



Conclusions

Ideal Man:
age 25+
Never Married
No Children
Kind and caring
Not overweight or obese
Does not drink, or minimal alcohol consumption
Non smoking
Earns at least $50,000, and preferably $75,000
Happily married parents
Religious beliefs
Not a criminal
Above average IQ
No more than 9 years older than the lady
Responsible, does not spend money foolishly
Date at least 2, and preferably 3 years before marriage.


Ideal woman:
Age 25+
Virgin preferably, or maximum 1 prior sexual partner
Lost virginity past age of 18
Never married
No children
Kind and caring
Not overweight or obese
Never lived with a partner
Attends church at least once per week
Non smoking
Does not drink, or minimal alcohol consumption
Happily married parents
Not a criminal
Above average IQ
No more than 9 years younger than the guy
Responsible, does not spend money foolishly
Date at least 2, and preferably 3 years before marriage.

« Last Edit: January 29, 2019, 06:38:29 PM by Bee Farmer »

Offline DCcowboy

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Re: Are you Marriage Material, or Divorce Material?
« Reply #1 on: January 29, 2019, 06:57:24 PM »
Nice to know I fall into lines with very few exceptions.

Offline ML

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Re: Are you Marriage Material, or Divorce Material?
« Reply #2 on: January 29, 2019, 08:48:31 PM »
WOW, if you add up all the probabilities for the various sins . . . we are all doomed in our marriages !!
Winston Churchill.  “The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.”

Offline Bee Farmer

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Re: Are you Marriage Material, or Divorce Material?
« Reply #3 on: January 30, 2019, 03:01:54 PM »
WOW, if you add up all the probabilities for the various sins . . . we are all doomed in our marriages !!

We?  We?!  Don't be painting me with the brush of your own guilty conscience.  Some of us look at these odds, and see that we have an excellent probability of being able to have a successful, lifelong marriage.

As I said at the very beginning:
For many people, it paints a rather grim picture about their prospects for a happy, lifelong marriage. 
People don't like having to face reality, and admit that because of bad life choices they have made, the odds are stacked against them.

Your own probability of a successful marriage may be doomed, but that doesn't mean all of us are doomed.  It wasn't that long ago that you were being petty, and ready to throw in the towel with Ochka.  (To your credit, you did remove your head from your posterior, and decided to be a man instead of acting like a spoiled boy, and you sucked it up and put a little more effort into making the relationship work.)  Would someone with lower odds of divorce have been ready to give up so easily?  Ask yourself that.

When I look at the list of things a guy should have for the best chances of a successful marriage, the only risk factor I have is that my parents divorced, and I couldn't control that.  (And I would not hold it against a girl whose parents were divorced if she had everything else going for her.)  As long as I choose a girl with a high probability of a successful marriage of an appropriate age difference, and I date her 2-3 years so we have time to get to know each other and build a real relationship, I know I have an excellent probability of a successful marriage because I have positioned my life so I can offer a strong foundation for which a successful relationship can be built upon.

Online krimster2

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Re: Are you Marriage Material, or Divorce Material?
« Reply #4 on: January 30, 2019, 03:28:37 PM »
"People don't like having to face reality"




no bee boy, I guess you don't....
here in language YOU can understand...

Gospel of Thomas...

Why reach for the speck in your neighbor’s eye
when there is an entire tree in your own...



bee boy
married 19 yr to a Ukrainian woman
and have two teenage daughters with her
my very existence makes your statements about "rules for success" sound like the most absurd thing ever uttered
even more so considering it is uttered by someone who undoubtedly considers himself to be of great virtue and yet paradoxically is utterly alone....

a book is not reality bee boy
a statistic is about a population and not an individual

experience is the doorway to reality and not reading
try it some time...
« Last Edit: January 30, 2019, 03:34:20 PM by krimster2 »
вы думаете, что любой из этих людей, даже российских, подозревает, что я русский?

Online SteveInBoston

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Re: Are you Marriage Material, or Divorce Material?
« Reply #5 on: January 30, 2019, 06:34:51 PM »
Ideal woman:
Age 25+
Virgin preferably, or maximum 1 prior sexual partner
Lost virginity past age of 18
Never married
No children
Kind and caring
Not overweight or obese
Never lived with a partner
Attends church at least once per week
Non smoking
Does not drink, or minimal alcohol consumption
Happily married parents
Not a criminal
Above average IQ
No more than 9 years younger than the guy
Responsible, does not spend money foolishly
Date at least 2, and preferably 3 years before marriage.

This is utter twaddle.

It's the result of someone who don't understand how surveys, statistics, and especially multi-variable analysis work.

What was stated was a bunch of figures, without any reference to the studies (except one) for verification, from a general pool instead of each subset of the pool.

One cannot simply put those values into a spreadsheet and hand select the favorable ones of each category to select the optimum traits.

A valid result is to take the women who are in successful marriages, then select the first trait (married at age 25+), then take that subgroup and then take the sub-subgroup of age 25+ and virgin (or 1 previous partner), then take the next sub-sub-group, etc.

It could be that of NO women who are 25+ in successful marriages are also virgins.

A more comprehensive and also extremely complicated analysis is to take each combination sub-factors and generate a likelihood of success and cross-reference with the other sub-factors, number crunch through various iterations and generate a trait combination group with associated probable success rates.

Another scenario could be that women with the specific combination of traits as stated above have a 100% marriage failure rate.  A plausible reason for this is that women with those traits have such demanding requirements of their partner that they will not be satisfied with anyone.  They either divorce early or never marry, because after 2-3 years of dating they are disappointed with their partner.


So, a wall of data about marriage/divorce rates that is practically useless.  Unless maybe designing or playing a dating video game.


Offline Bee Farmer

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Re: Are you Marriage Material, or Divorce Material?
« Reply #6 on: February 05, 2019, 01:36:09 PM »
Quote
This is utter twaddle.

I disagree Steve, as I consider your post to be utter twaddle.  It reeks of what is known as a college educated idiot - someone who may be educated in one area, but completely lacking a lick of common sense.

Another expression would be someone who can't see the forest for all the trees.  You're worried about irrelevant details, instead of seeing the big picture.

Praxeology is the field of study of human behavior.  It uses deductive reasoning, and not inductive reasoning.  It is a soft science, and not a hard science.

Quote
What was stated was a bunch of figures, without any reference to the studies (except one) for verification, from a general pool instead of each subset of the pool.

A lot of the results were pulled from the National Survey of Family Growth, but the individual studies are irrelevant to the discussion.

Quote
A valid result is to take the women who are in successful marriages, then select the first trait (married at age 25+), then take that subgroup and then take the sub-subgroup of age 25+ and virgin (or 1 previous partner), then take the next sub-sub-group, etc.

It could be that of NO women who are 25+ in successful marriages are also virgins.

And it could be that all 25+ women who married as virgins are in successful marriages.

Quote
A more comprehensive and also extremely complicated analysis is to take each combination sub-factors and generate a likelihood of success and cross-reference with the other sub-factors, number crunch through various iterations and generate a trait combination group with associated probable success rates.

No, the only thing you will get is white noise - just meaningless chatter that hides the bigger picture.

Quote
So, a wall of data about marriage/divorce rates that is practically useless.

Only for idiots.

I'll tell you how to apply it.
Marriage has a Sword of Damocles hanging over it.  At any time that Sword can come crashing down, severing the bonds of marriage.  Some risk factors weaken that horsehair, or add weight to the sword.  Other factors strengthen the hair, or lighten the sword.
Not all factors put as much strain on the hair as others.
The sword and hair everyone starts out with is different from everyone else's.  Some hairs are slightly stronger, and can withstand certain stresses that doom other marriages.  But the trend lines remain the same.

Think of these risk factors as red flags.  If a lady has one prior sexual partner, her rates of divorce are 3 times that of virgin brides.  With 2 or more sexual partners, the divorce rates are 5-6 times that of a virgin bride.  Guys worry about a woman spending them broke, but they overlook bigger red flags in sexual behavior.
Or maybe they think drinking one bottle of wine a month is no big deal, even though that results in about 200% higher divorce rates than folks who don't drink at all.
Or maybe they have achieved a high income, and think that can keep a woman happy, even though jobs with high incomes usually come with long hours and high stress.  They are not home very much, and when they are home, they are still miserable to be around.  ($75K is supposed to be the ideal income for happiness.  Below that, you may feel like you are wanting.  At $75K, you can enjoy a comfortable lifestyle. Above $75K, you have long hours and high stress.)

I think part of the problem why people don't like looking at statistics like these is arrogance.  An expert in one field often believes that they are an expert in all fields.  They try to concentrate on themselves having one area of strength, and think that one thing will outweigh all their demerits.  Or they believe that they are the exception to the rules.  And then when they crash and burn, they want to blame anyone but themselves.

Anyone with common sense knows teenaged boys, whiskey, and fast cars don't mix.  Only an idiot would try to break down the best mix of age, whiskey consumption, and speed - you are not going to let your daughter or sister go out with that guy.  The risks are simply too high.  Even if she survives, she can easily become injured.

Marriage will likely be the most important decision people will ever make.  Other people's lives will be impacted by your decisions, especially your children's.  It seems quite ironic to me that people would object to their sister riding in a car with that teenaged boy with the whiskey and fast car because they don't want to see her get injured, but they will engage in other high risk activities (remarriage) that are likely to injure their own children and/or result in divorce.

But then again, if people had common sense, they would not remarry after divorce, or get involved with people whose behaviors result in high divorce rates, and they themselves would live their own lives trying to be the best partner they can be, and to provide the best environment for their children.

Offline Jamesukjames

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Re: Are you Marriage Material, or Divorce Material?
« Reply #7 on: February 05, 2019, 01:53:37 PM »
OK Bee you've been looking 1-2 years but no trips yet and now you're posting you are looking for a virgin  in the F S U over 25 years old.  Most FSU women have had a child by that age !

Offline Bee Farmer

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Re: Are you Marriage Material, or Divorce Material?
« Reply #8 on: February 05, 2019, 02:15:44 PM »
I've been to Ukraine before.

I have not posted that I am searching for a virgin.  Others assume that, but I have not listed that as a requirement, or cause for rejection if a lady was not a virgin.  (Interestingly, on Elena's Models blog, she did post that she is beginning to have virgins join...not a lot, but perhaps 2 dozen.  So they do exist.)  I do believe virginity in a woman offers the best chance of a lifelong marriage.

I would not consider a relationship with a FSU or American girl who had children. 

A few basic things on my list:
Never married
No children
Not overweight/obese

No more or less than I offer.

Online krimster2

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Re: Are you Marriage Material, or Divorce Material?
« Reply #9 on: February 05, 2019, 02:35:41 PM »
bee boy

you can’t praise virginity in someone else as a virtue, without walking the walk yourself
so I guess we can safely assume that about you, and if still not convinced, then there's your past failed reference to your "experience" with oral sex...
together I think we can soundly predict that you're NOT EXACTLY a super stud. right...?

NOW I understand your objection to being labeled an “INCEL” Involuntary Celibate by me in the past...
I had part of it wrong, it’s voluntary celibacy, or at least you THINK it is...

bee boy
i think everyone on this board understands that the only sexual climax you’ve ever had was courtesy of your right hand, and  that the only possible exception to this would be if you are LEFT handed...

what I would consider doing if I were you (happily married 19 yr father of two teenage children, so I'm not)
is first thing tomorrow morning, walk outside and turn your face upwards straight towards the sky
and yell in your loudest voice, "help me God"
and pray for divine intervention
this is probably the only chance you've got...
shhhhh....everybody keep quiet about "god" don't tell him.....
remember when you were little and you weren't supposed say "Santa wan't real" around the real little children "who still believed"...same deal...





« Last Edit: February 05, 2019, 04:55:18 PM by krimster2 »
вы думаете, что любой из этих людей, даже российских, подозревает, что я русский?

Offline Cameraguy

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Re: Are you Marriage Material, or Divorce Material?
« Reply #10 on: February 05, 2019, 02:46:10 PM »
Do I believe that the 3% of virgins who marry have a 6% divorce rate?


Not on your life, but to each his own.


I remember driving into Novosibirsk and being told by Russian friends that the statue on the outskirts of the city was actually a tribute to Novosibirsk's last remaining virgin.


According to what Maxx is saying, Georgia may be your best bet. That is, if the male relatives approve of her marrying a foreigner, which in itself seems doubtful.


~CG

Online SteveInBoston

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Re: Are you Marriage Material, or Divorce Material?
« Reply #11 on: February 05, 2019, 04:22:14 PM »
I disagree Steve, as I consider your post to be utter twaddle.  It reeks of what is known as a college educated idiot - someone who may be educated in one area, but completely lacking a lick of common sense.

Another expression would be someone who can't see the forest for all the trees.  You're worried about irrelevant details, instead of seeing the big picture.

Praxeology is the field of study of human behavior.  It uses deductive reasoning, and not inductive reasoning.  It is a soft science, and not a hard science.

A lot of the results were pulled from the National Survey of Family Growth, but the individual studies are irrelevant to the discussion.

And it could be that all 25+ women who married as virgins are in successful marriages.

No, the only thing you will get is white noise - just meaningless chatter that hides the bigger picture.

Only for idiots.

Now you are mixing up different studies, and different sciences.  If you stayed with Praxeology then that would be acceptable.  But instead you started stating statistics, all as one-off groups instead of related groups and cross-reference subgroups.

Each could be a trait that enhances success for marriage.  But as a combination of traits, each combination will need to be evaluated for their success rates.

Individual studies are extremely relevant.  They specify the framework of each study, with associated margins of error.  Omitting them is how idiots, or worse, deceivers, try to use science to push their personal beliefs.  They cherry-pick things here and there and make it seem reasonable, without any due diligence to the underlying science or statistics.

Your correlations are just as accurate as the studies that declared polio was caused by ice cream.

Offline DaveNY

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Re: Are you Marriage Material, or Divorce Material?
« Reply #12 on: February 05, 2019, 05:17:50 PM »

Ideal woman:
Age 25+
Virgin preferably, or maximum 1 prior sexual partner
Lost virginity past age of 18
Never married
No children
Kind and caring
Not overweight or obese
Never lived with a partner
Attends church at least once per week
Non smoking
Does not drink, or minimal alcohol consumption
Happily married parents
Not a criminal
Above average IQ
No more than 9 years younger than the guy
Responsible, does not spend money foolishly
Date at least 2, and preferably 3 years before marriage.

If you're looking for a RW with the above characteristics you're going to be looking for a while. While Putin has helped revive the Russian Orthodox Church many young women (under 35) still don't attend church. Vast majority of the women under 35 are not virgins. They have had more than 1 previous partner and have often lived with former partners.

The divorce rate in Russia is high. So it's likely her parents were divorced and she might have been divorced. Abortions are common so she might have had an abortion. She probably has little to no understanding of English.

Other than that you will still have a hard time finding a RW who meets your requirements.

Online jone

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Re: Are you Marriage Material, or Divorce Material?
« Reply #13 on: February 05, 2019, 05:43:24 PM »
I disagree Steve, as I consider your post to be utter twaddle.  It reeks of what is known as a college educated idiot - someone who may be educated in one area, but completely lacking a lick of common sense.

Another expression would be someone who can't see the forest for all the trees.  You're worried about irrelevant details, instead of seeing the big picture.

Praxeology is the field of study of human behavior.  It uses deductive reasoning, and not inductive reasoning.  It is a soft science, and not a hard science.

A lot of the results were pulled from the National Survey of Family Growth, but the individual studies are irrelevant to the discussion.

And it could be that all 25+ women who married as virgins are in successful marriages.

No, the only thing you will get is white noise - just meaningless chatter that hides the bigger picture.

Only for idiots.

I'll tell you how to apply it.
Marriage has a Sword of Damocles hanging over it.  At any time that Sword can come crashing down, severing the bonds of marriage.  Some risk factors weaken that horsehair, or add weight to the sword.  Other factors strengthen the hair, or lighten the sword.
Not all factors put as much strain on the hair as others.
The sword and hair everyone starts out with is different from everyone else's.  Some hairs are slightly stronger, and can withstand certain stresses that doom other marriages.  But the trend lines remain the same.

Think of these risk factors as red flags.  If a lady has one prior sexual partner, her rates of divorce are 3 times that of virgin brides.  With 2 or more sexual partners, the divorce rates are 5-6 times that of a virgin bride.  Guys worry about a woman spending them broke, but they overlook bigger red flags in sexual behavior.
Or maybe they think drinking one bottle of wine a month is no big deal, even though that results in about 200% higher divorce rates than folks who don't drink at all.
Or maybe they have achieved a high income, and think that can keep a woman happy, even though jobs with high incomes usually come with long hours and high stress.  They are not home very much, and when they are home, they are still miserable to be around.  ($75K is supposed to be the ideal income for happiness.  Below that, you may feel like you are wanting.  At $75K, you can enjoy a comfortable lifestyle. Above $75K, you have long hours and high stress.)

I think part of the problem why people don't like looking at statistics like these is arrogance.  An expert in one field often believes that they are an expert in all fields.  They try to concentrate on themselves having one area of strength, and think that one thing will outweigh all their demerits.  Or they believe that they are the exception to the rules.  And then when they crash and burn, they want to blame anyone but themselves.

Anyone with common sense knows teenaged boys, whiskey, and fast cars don't mix.  Only an idiot would try to break down the best mix of age, whiskey consumption, and speed - you are not going to let your daughter or sister go out with that guy.  The risks are simply too high.  Even if she survives, she can easily become injured.

Marriage will likely be the most important decision people will ever make.  Other people's lives will be impacted by your decisions, especially your children's.  It seems quite ironic to me that people would object to their sister riding in a car with that teenaged boy with the whiskey and fast car because they don't want to see her get injured, but they will engage in other high risk activities (remarriage) that are likely to injure their own children and/or result in divorce.

But then again, if people had common sense, they would not remarry after divorce, or get involved with people whose behaviors result in high divorce rates, and they themselves would live their own lives trying to be the best partner they can be, and to provide the best environment for their children.

Hey, the women are just lining up for Bee Farmer.   Lucky that he follows all of his guidelines.  Otherwise he'd have been married a long time ago. 

Me thinks he is really following Paul in his first letter to the Corinthians:  (Chapter 7)

Bee Farmer thinks it is good for a man not to touch a woman. 

Kissing girls is a goodness.  It beats the hell out of card games.  - Robert Heinlein

Offline Bee Farmer

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Re: Are you Marriage Material, or Divorce Material?
« Reply #14 on: February 05, 2019, 06:09:00 PM »
Quote
Do I believe that the 3% of virgins who marry have a 6% divorce rate?


Not on your life, but to each his own.

Of people I know who have been happily married for decades and decades, the only sexual partner they have had being their spouse seems to be a common recurring theme.

Anecdotal, but worth paying attention to.  Coincidentally, that is also supported by research.

Quote
If you stayed with Praxeology then that would be acceptable.  But instead you started stating statistics, all as one-off groups instead of related groups and cross-reference subgroups.

There is no problem citing statistics to explain behavior in Praxeology.

Quote
Your correlations are just as accurate as the studies that declared polio was caused by ice cream.

I do understand that correlation is not causation.  With that said, when there is an extremely high correlation, it's worth paying attention to.

Quote
If you're looking for a RW with the above characteristics you're going to be looking for a while.

I don't limit myself to RW.

I'm looking for someone to spend the rest of my life with.  I have to be picky.  I accept that it is not an easy path, and that I will be looking for a long time.  Others choose easier paths, and rush into marriages they should have avoided.  That is the path they choose.  This is the path I choose.

Quote
Hey, the women are just lining up for Bee Farmer.

I actually have a fair number of women express interest in me, and even some physically fit ones.  (I am physically fit, own a couple houses, earn a decent living, never married, no kids...women notice these things.  And, I have a respectable reputation with other women.)  I don't consider it a secret that if you are the kind of guy that good women want, women will notice you and give you attention.  (Be desirable to many, but only choose one.)  But I am not interested in divorced women, or women with kids, or women with tattoos, etc.  If I know that a woman is not someone that I would ever be willing to marry, I don't get involved with her.

Quote
Lucky that he follows all of his guidelines.  Otherwise he'd have been married a long time ago.

I almost got married once.  If we would have gotten married, I'm sure we would still be together.
She had almost all the criteria for an optimum woman for marriage.

She still says that I am the best man she has ever known. (Perhaps that says more to the quality of other men she has known, as I have many flaws.)

I still say that divorced people looking to remarry and believing they will be successful makes about as much sense as a teenage boy mixing whiskey and fast cars, thinking he has learned from his mistakes after crashing, and he will be able to drive better the next time.  Some people never learn from their mistakes, and history has shown their odds of crashing again are even higher.
« Last Edit: February 05, 2019, 06:15:28 PM by Bee Farmer »

Online krimster2

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Re: Are you Marriage Material, or Divorce Material?
« Reply #15 on: February 05, 2019, 06:25:27 PM »
“Of people I know who have been happily married for decades and decades, the only sexual partner they have had being their spouse seems to be a common recurring theme.”



I know someone, “ME”, who’s banged more chicks in Ukraine than a Stalinist firing squad, and yet paradoxically this yr will be my 20th aniv and my wife and I still behave like teenagers with each other

Coincidentally, this is supported by own freakin experience, something you seem to know not a god damned thing about...

PS, don’t pout little boy, I know you’re reading this...
вы думаете, что любой из этих людей, даже российских, подозревает, что я русский?

Offline Jumper

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Re: Are you Marriage Material, or Divorce Material?
« Reply #16 on: February 05, 2019, 09:08:15 PM »
Quote from: BeeFarmer
But then again, if people had common sense, they would not remarry after divorce....

still say that divorced people looking to remarry and believing they will be successful makes about as much sense as a teenage boy mixing whiskey and fast cars, thinking he has learned from his mistakes after crashing, and he will be able to drive better the next time.  Some people never learn from their mistakes, and history has shown their odds of crashing again are even higher




.


Silly analogy.
Two people marrying can certainly have learned from thier mistakes.
They both may have matured, and learned how to handle relationships better, conflict better , and learned to  communicate better.

They also may not have.

But that is nothing like a teenage boy *still* drinking and driving.


His key mistakes remain inexperience and impairment.

One of these factors absolutely does not apply to a previously married person, and the other may,or may not apply .
Their personality may be an impairment to enduring relationships, or they may have learned to modify their approach to a partner and relatiobships.

They have more experience driving a fast car, and could no longer be drinking.


If you want to post 400 different statistics, at least come up with better analogies.

 I dont doubt your statistics, I dont  even doubt your conclusions derived from rather mixed and matched data.

I'll assure you that in something as fragile as human relationships, were it takes both parties complete commitment to keep a marraige together,that you can only control one side of the equation at best.
You can marry a perfect on paper candidate,and perhaps reduce the statistical odds of the marriage failing.
   You could wait until you are 93 years old and statistically increase the odds your marriage will endure until your death dramatically,
But you can never control the other persons inner feelings.Statisticallybperfrct people stil divorce.

Two things to be absolutely  certain.
1. Never marry
2. Hold the ceremony at Yosemite on el capitian , then jump off  el Capitan right after you say  ,I do.


Now for most of us lacking common sense, we will recognize the many risk factors in a relationship  enduring a lifetime, and also feel that  never entering marriage again, may seem
just slightly less extreme a measure to avoid a *possible* 2nd failed marraige, than committing suicude the moment we enter into one .
 


If you are truly that afraid of failure, you cannot possibly ever  fully entrust another individual with the responsibility no matter how good they match the best statistical probability.

I think love us a tad more simple and unpredictable than all that, and without it, the odds a marriage lasts is considerably lower.

While I understand  and applaud the fact you are looking everywhere, not just fsu,
I'd advise you to remember not to apply random studies based mostly on western culture and resultant marraiges, on any other culture,  there are distinct differences that make a study on western culture worthless applied elsewhere





.

Offline Jamesukjames

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Marriage strike
« Reply #17 on: February 06, 2019, 11:42:26 AM »
Any sensible man in the western should not get married due to divorce being so un-balanced in favour of women.  The only caveat being that a man has to marry a woman to bring her from the FSU unless you can find a previously married FSU in your home country.

Offline Davo2

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Re: Marriage strike
« Reply #18 on: February 06, 2019, 01:03:50 PM »
Any sensible man in the western should not get married due to divorce being so un-balanced in favour of women.  The only caveat being that a man has to marry a woman to bring her from the FSU unless you can find a previously married FSU in your home country.

There may be change in the wind. It cost me over 50k in legal fees, but I ended up with custody of my children, a larger percentage of our assets, 30k of her superanuation and  the court even accepted my low evaluation of my business and house over hers.

I'm a member of several single fathers groups on FB and although there are many who get screwed by the family court system, there are also quite a few who ended up in a better position than their ex wives when the dust settled.

On a dating front, sure I've had some shocking dates and two short term relationships that didn't end well due to their attitudes. On the other hand I've met many wonderful local women and one I spent over 6 months with and would definitely marry, if she didn't move away due to family commitments.

I just don't see this feminist issue that other guys claim. I'm sure you experience both good and bad women, no matter where they come from. The women that I had problems with was more due to their up bringing and emotional baggage, than feminist ideals.

Offline Bee Farmer

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Re: Are you Marriage Material, or Divorce Material?
« Reply #19 on: February 06, 2019, 02:32:47 PM »
Quote
Silly analogy.
Two people marrying can certainly have learned from thier mistakes.
They both may have matured, and learned how to handle relationships better, conflict better , and learned to  communicate better.

They also may not have.

But that is nothing like a teenage boy *still* drinking and driving.


His key mistakes remain inexperience and impairment.

That's a great theory, Jumper. 

If people learned from their mistakes, the divorce rates for second and third marriages would decline.  What actually happens though?  They are more likely to divorce, showing that they did not learn anything.  They are worse off than someone on their first marriage.

Divorced people's key mistakes are also inexperience and impairment. 
Their experience with marriage is learning how to fail and how to give up.
Which makes them emotionally impaired.

A few people may learn, but the are worse off their second time around.

Quote
I'll assure you that in something as fragile as human relationships, were it takes both parties complete commitment to keep a marraige together,that you can only control one side of the equation at best.
You can marry a perfect on paper candidate,and perhaps reduce the statistical odds of the marriage failing.

There is no perhaps about it.  You do reduce (but not eliminate) the risk of divorce by choosing a good partner.

Quote
But you can never control the other persons inner feelings.Statisticallybperfrct people stil divorce.

But at much lower rates.
Statistically imperfect people get divorced too, at much higher rates.  So getting involved with someone who is high risk is playing with fire.

Quote
Now for most of us lacking common sense, we will recognize the many risk factors in a relationship  enduring a lifetime,

No, most people do not recognize the risk factors, (or simply don't care) especially when the risk factor is them.
If they recognized the risk factors, you would see second and third marriages with lower divorce rates than first marriages.
Remarriage for the majority of people really is committing relationship suicide.

Quote
If you are truly that afraid of failure, you cannot possibly ever  fully entrust another individual with the responsibility no matter how good they match the best statistical probability.

I agree with you on that.  The person who never makes a mistake, is the person who doesn't do anything.

Quote
I think love us a tad more simple and unpredictable than all that, and without it, the odds a marriage lasts is considerably lower.

What's not unpredictable, is your ability to choose who you develop a relationship and develop feelings for.

Quote
While I understand  and applaud the fact you are looking everywhere, not just fsu,
I'd advise you to remember not to apply random studies based mostly on western culture and resultant marraiges, on any other culture,  there are distinct differences that make a study on western culture worthless applied elsewhere

And what relevant cultural differences are you referring to?
Marriage, loyalty, honor, treating your partner right, caring, virginity, oxytocin response, love, affection, etc. are universal to all women, and not confined to western culture.  These are worldwide universals.

Offline Davo2

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Re: Are you Marriage Material, or Divorce Material?
« Reply #20 on: February 06, 2019, 04:20:53 PM »
"Divorced people's key mistakes are also inexperience and impairment. 
Their experience with marriage is learning how to fail and how to give up.
Which makes them emotionally impaired"

Beefarmer, You can't comment on divorce when you have never been in a long term relationship or faced any of the usual issues you deal with in marriage.

I'm certain you would have given up long before I did, if faced with the same situation as me and I look at the fact I stayed for so long as a sign of emotional impairment.


"Remarriage for the majority of people really is committing relationship suicide"

So us guys who have divorced aren't capable of love and a successful marriage like you?..... Do you suggest we make excuses why we can't find a worthy woman like you and live a life of loneliness?

My advice to you is to forget everything you've read or been told and experience life and as many relationships as you can both good and bad..... Divorced women,  never married, atheists, single mums, virgins (if you can find one) etc... Because you are missing out on meeting some amazing people.

You'll find it's very rare you really know what a woman's like, despite her credentials on paper at the start of a relationship. It's only 6 months down the track, after the honeymoon period  that you start to see who she really is..... That tea-totaler, christian virgin is probably single because she's a psychopathic narcissist who won't reveal her true self until she has a ring on her finger and your child by her side.

« Last Edit: February 07, 2019, 12:45:25 AM by Davo2 »

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Re: Marriage strike
« Reply #21 on: February 06, 2019, 06:01:26 PM »
Any sensible man in the western should not get married due to divorce being so un-balanced in favour of women. 

Sorry, but this just isn't true, and I can give you a half dozen decisions of the Supreme Court of Canada backing up my assertion.  Joint custody is the default here (50/50), and in many American states as well.

I read the story of a UK woman recently, single mother who had purchased a home.  She was warning other UK women not to marry quickly.  She'd been married about a year, husband didn't work at all during their marriage, she threw him out, he sued, and received 1/3 of the value of her home, despite the short length of the marriage and the fact there were no children (he did not stand in loco parentis to her children).  So, I suspect it's more about where the earning power lies.

With respect to virginity/length of marriage - I suspect most women who remain virgins until marriage do so out of religious conviction.  They may also stay in bad marriages because of those convictions.  So, I wouldn't put too much stock into a correlation between the length of a marriage and virginity.

This post was composed without the aid of google.



« Last Edit: February 06, 2019, 06:03:03 PM by Boethius »
To love someone means to see him as God intended him. - Fyodor Dostoevksy

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Re: Marriage strike
« Reply #22 on: February 06, 2019, 09:22:13 PM »
With respect to virginity/length of marriage - I suspect most women who remain virgins until marriage do so out of religious conviction. 

Quite likely.

However, there is some percentage whose main reason for virginity is complete lack of desire.
Those are the ones to beware of (although hard to know beforehand) because that lack of desire will persist during marriage.

Same holds true for the virgin man.
Winston Churchill.  “The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.”

Offline Jumper

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Re: Are you Marriage Material, or Divorce Material?
« Reply #23 on: February 06, 2019, 11:34:13 PM »
Quote from: BeeFarmer
And what relevant cultural differences are you referring to?

As example the above two posts dealing with your posted statistics on virginity and marriage.

In cultures with a much higher percentage of people of specific religious Faith's,  virginity at time of marriage is more than expected , and  divorce carries a larger social stigma, your studies results would nitbfactorvin the same reasons.

  You are looking everywhere not just the FSU,  deriving conclusions of marriage breakdown odds from statistical data founded in western culture ,is not going to apply to  many places in the world.


Only as small example ,if you feel decades of soviet mentality and structure in FSU countries shaped cultural views on virginity, marriage, diborce, relationship problem solving, conflict resolution, the same as  they are in the  western societies of the studies,  then go ahead and apply that data.

It's all generalization .
You are marrying an individual so none of that matters, but if you are trying to sort out an individual using generalized data, it needs to be data from that culture.

To use western data , to help choose a  woman from a village in Sudan wouldnt be wise.

There are cultural differences between the west and the fsu.

Things you listed are individual traits, yes all women may share them.
 Your data is not about those individual traits.
Do you think a devout catholic Chilean from a small village fits your marraige data the same as a Buddhist from Bhutan ,on percentages of divorce for the same reasons in your study?


If so, ok.
If not,  then you might want to rethink applying them anywhere else but where they were done.


Your views that people are foolish who  remarry because the statistical odds are too great that it will not last speaks volumes.

Statistically the odds are worse of course, and why would that matter?

If a persons  parents are divorced I suppose since the odds are worse, they should never try marraige.But seemingly, it's ok for them to try, as you see that as only a risk factor.


You seem to draw a line in the sand in who should try, or not try, and firvtyem to still be considered a rational.person.lol

So where does  foolish merge into simply an ok  risk taker by necessity (a person doesn't control.their parents marraige)?



Just how did you calculate  the cut off percent ?

You did ask for specifics,  I'll generalize and say one big difference is in how couples are raised to resolve
 differences . The entire mentality about even talking about things is different.
.

Offline ML

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Re: Are you Marriage Material, or Divorce Material?
« Reply #24 on: February 07, 2019, 09:58:10 PM »
As a person with training in scientific methodology, many of you are giving short shrift to the data presented by BeeMan.

You are resorting to idea that the data doesn't mean anything because any one person you are interested in can be different from the average as indicated in the data.

But that ignores the value of the data and the concept of probability.

For instance, if it is found that a certain type of plane has an accident rate significantly higher than average . . . I doubt many of you would say that you would have no worry flying on it because some of the planes in that category probably will not have the problem.  i.e. they are all individuals.

So the value of data and statistics is that they can help us in our screening process, just like we screen out for smoking, drinking, etc.

Sure you may decide to go against the odds with any particular gal/guy, but just admit you are being foolish rather than long winded arguments about . . . each person is different, bla bla bla.
Winston Churchill.  “The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.”

 

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