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Author Topic: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)  (Read 43018 times)

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Online Gator

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2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« on: February 02, 2020, 02:01:33 PM »
Upon first learning of  2019-nCoV, I dismissed it,  believing China with its authoritarian government would take the necessary measures to limit its spread. 

China has failed so far;  the number of human infections has progressed exponentially and continues to do so. The total number of confirmed cases already far exceeds the total number of cases reported for SARS, another coronavirus originating in China.

A graph of past and current 2019 - nCoV infections can be found here showing the exponential growth rate (I attempted to post a graph, yet it was too large for the RWD page).   

  http://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/samples/2020/01/DashVirus012820.png

Unchecked exponential growth is very serious.  A second chart shows the current rate would infect 138 million persons by 20 February!   The projections can be seen using logarithmic scales as below:   

  http://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/samples/2020/01/DashVirusProgression012820b.png


It is claimed that the exponential spread resulted from China suppressing the news about this outbreak.  The same autocracy that allowed China to suppress the news now allows them to implement drastic measures. 

A virus tracker maintained by Johns Hopkins University shows 14,637 confirmed cases worldwide.  For updates, go to:

http://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
 
Today's info shows a ray of sunshine as the total falls below the exponential rate consistently seen from the start through 27 January.   There are more rays of sunshine.  2019- CoV has now been replicated and samples have been distributed worldwide to research organizations. 

2019 - CoV is not as fatal as SARS, yet is much more infectious.  It has the capacity to lower economic growth significantly worldwide.  My old employer, WHO, has declared a PHEIC, a public health emergency of international concern.  Not unprecedented, yet very serious. 

Online Gator

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1 on: February 02, 2020, 02:15:58 PM »
If the coronavirus remains unchecked and hits the United States, we are far more prepared than most other nations in addressing the disease and in handling infected patients. 

The most prepared nations were Canada, Netherlands, Thailand, and the United States.  I imagine a reason for the US being ranked "most prepared" is the preparation we have done for terrorism involving nuclear, biological and chemical attacks. 

http://www.nti.org/about/projects/global-health-security-index/

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #2 on: February 02, 2020, 02:27:06 PM »
I allowed myself to be misled by the bianco charts I referenced earlier that were claiming exponential growth of infections.  The current data from John Hopkins suggest the  rate is probably transitioning into logarithmic growth seen as follows for bacterial colonies: 



« Last Edit: February 02, 2020, 02:28:41 PM by Gator »

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #3 on: February 02, 2020, 02:40:59 PM »
The slowing of confirmed cases in China can be seen in this Johns Hopkins chart. 

http://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

A cynic could argue that growth slowed for just one day or the Chinese statisticians took a break to rest for a day.  :D   Neverthless the total number is well less than that predicted just a few days ago by Bianco's exponential growth. 


Sorry, I rushed this while organizing a Superbowl Pool.  Go Chiefs! 
« Last Edit: February 02, 2020, 02:42:38 PM by Gator »

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #4 on: February 02, 2020, 03:03:51 PM »
http://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
 
Today's info shows a ray of sunshine as the total falls below the exponential rate consistently seen from the start through 27 January.   


The slowing of confirmed cases in China can be seen in this Johns Hopkins chart. 

http://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

A cynic could argue that growth slowed for just one day or the Chinese statisticians took a break to rest for a day.  :D   Neverthless the total number is well less than that predicted just a few days ago by Bianco's exponential growth. 


Don't predict sunshine yet. I've looked at that website everyday. The graph will look flat(no increase of new infections reported) between yesterday and the current day until the next update which is tonight. The numbers infected get updated in the evening USA time. Every day the final report of new infections broke a record. Revisit that site tonight or in the morning and you will see that graph change. What we can celebrate, although there is no cure, there have been over 400 people that beat the virus on their own and made a full recovery.
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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #5 on: February 03, 2020, 08:17:39 AM »
Over the last two days, the reported number of confirmed cases increased, yet at a slower rate than seen in late January.   We just hope the Chinese are reporting actual data.     

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #6 on: February 03, 2020, 08:20:12 AM »
We just hope the Chinese are reporting actual data.   

Like there really is a tooth fairy.
Winston Churchill.  The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #7 on: February 03, 2020, 08:26:06 AM »
It is concerning because China knows that people must soon start going outside their home if the economy is  not to falter.    Will they risk public health to save the economy?     

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #8 on: February 03, 2020, 08:32:12 AM »
ECONOMIC IMPACT

The impact of coronavirus on the global economy may affect us more than the public health impact.  An interview today on CNBC with the renown economist Mohamed El-Erian was concerning:

      -  He spoke of "accelerating sudden stop dynamics." In 2008, the financial issue of mortgage defaults cascaded into the Great  Recession.   Coronoavirus is not a financial issue but an economic one. 
      -  China's economy  will surely be hit hard if people are not leaving their homes.  Minimal shopping, slowdown at factories, etc.
      -  El-Erian is concerned about a possible economic ripple effect:  China to Emerging Asia to Europe to America. 
      -  Europe's growth is already slowing (1.2% for 2019) approaching stall speed.   
      -  While the Central Banks' injections worked in 2008-2010, this time they may be ineffective.  Europe is already at near zero rates.   How does increasing money flow help in China if people are not flowing. 
      -  We do not know if this economic "shock" is  containable, temporary and reversible.  Each is important.   

The general feeling I perceive from watching analysts is do not  make a wholesale sell of stocks.  However, it is not a time to buy the dips nor the time to be leveraged.    Some selective selling seems prudent. 

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2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #9 on: February 03, 2020, 09:46:57 AM »
The Moby crowd start writing articles.
 
Fears of new virus trigger anti-China sentiment worldwide
http://apnews.com/04f18aafe1074a1c06b4203edcbdc661


Fear of coronavirus fuels racist sentiment targeting Asians
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/fear-of-coronavirus-fuels-racist-sentiment-targeting-asians/ar-BBZBw8I

Passengers sprayed with hoses on runway after flying from coronavirus epicentre
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/passengers-sprayed-hoses-after-flying-21421289

Hong Kong shuts most China crossings over virus as medics strike
http://news.yahoo.com/hong-kong-medics-strike-china-border-closure-over-032415572.html


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2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #10 on: February 03, 2020, 09:53:56 AM »










FSUW are not for entry level daters
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If you find a promising girl, get your butt on a plane.
There are a hundred ways to be successful and a thousand ways to f#ck it up
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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #11 on: February 03, 2020, 03:08:31 PM »
We may never learn how many people will have died from the virus. Before this became official news, journalists in China and people on the internet were talking about the mysterious new illness and got arrested for doing so. The story ended up being too big for China to hide but I suspect they are still underreporting numbers to give the impression things aren't so bad. Most regions in China reporting infections in the hundreds also report zero deaths according to the latest reports.

http://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

A few days ago there were 16 cities under lockdown and 60 million people quarantined. The numbers may have increased. Imagine 20% of Americans locked down. China should've put out a public health warning and took action before this got out of control.
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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #12 on: February 03, 2020, 04:50:23 PM »
BillyB-

I thought China was in fact pro-active about this. They had quarantined the entire city proper FWIW, and immediately issue travel warnings, building makeshift hospitals to treat those afflicted, etc...(?)
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Online BillyB

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #13 on: February 03, 2020, 05:50:39 PM »
BillyB-

I thought China was in fact pro-active about this. They had quarantined the entire city proper FWIW, and immediately issue travel warnings, building makeshift hospitals to treat those afflicted, etc...(?)


I wanted to believe China was doing the right thing but after reviewing old articles, they were trying to cover it up. The virus is named 2019-nCoV because it was discovered in 2019 Dec 8, yet we just learned about it a couple of weeks ago. China didn't put out public health and travel warnings. They were arresting people that talked about it. They weren't building hospitals until this thing exploded out of control to the point they couldn't keep it a secret anymore.

Two days before Wuhan, with the Communist party's blessing, told the world about the outbreak, they advertised a potluck for citizens and got more than 40,000 families together in one spot to eat in hopes they'd break a world record. The same day they announced the outbreak, the city also advertised they're giving away 200,000 free tickets to attend the city's new year celebration! Business as usual. Very irresponsible of the government to sponsor large groups of people together TWICE knowing there is an unknown and uncontrollable virus that has affected some of their citizens.

http://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/22/health/virus-corona.html

http://www.businessinsider.com/china-information-crackdown-on-wuhan-coronavirus-2020-1

No saying goodbye to loved ones. China says infected dead bodies to be immediately cremated,

http://www.yahoo.com/news/china-says-wuhan-coronavirus-victims-035557851.html

Bird flu is back in China. Over 4000 dead. All we need now is the swine flu to return to China to complete the reunion.

http://www.yahoo.com/news/china-reports-bird-flu-outbreak-213148810.html
« Last Edit: February 03, 2020, 06:03:00 PM by BillyB »
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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #14 on: February 03, 2020, 06:08:28 PM »
It's OK. I read a report the common flu virus killed 10,000 Americans last year alone. Denge fever had so far killed 5 Bolivians this year so far, etc... Big Deal right?

According to our liberal zealots the world is imploding by 2012 making whatever China is doing, or not, seem rather trivial, don't you think?
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1. Because of 'man', global warming is causing desert and arid areas to suffer long, dry spell.
2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming.
3. N95 mask will choke you dead after 30 min. of use.

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #15 on: February 03, 2020, 06:50:43 PM »
It's OK. I read a report the common flu virus killed 10,000 Americans last year alone. Denge fever had so far killed 5 Bolivians this year so far, etc... Big Deal right?

According to our liberal zealots the world is imploding by 2012 making whatever China is doing, or not, seem rather trivial, don't you think?


This coronavirus is a big deal. Russia, as well as most China's neighbors, closed it's 2600 mile land border with China. Governments are quarantining people arriving from China if they are even allowed to enter. China has quarantined 60 mil people. 170+ nations don't even have 60 mil people. Governments aren't alarming people but the steps they are taking are alarming. There are no vaccines or anti viral medicines to beat the virus, only quarantine to slow the spread of it.

Everybody on this forum got a flu virus once or multiple times in their lives and survival rate is high. If a billion people got the flu and a million died, this number is acceptable to governments and the medical community. The standard flu virus we deal with mutates but is predictable and big pharma can develop new vaccines every year to beat it. Take a look at the link below. The Hubai region which contains the city of Wuhan reported 414 deaths and 396 recoveries. I doubt the numbers reflect truth but assuming they are true, when a person's battle with the virus is over, there is less than a 50% survival rate. Most of the time the virus wins the battle and if it went around the world once, over half the world's population would be wiped out. Of course there will be other factors involved in survival rate. We have better medical care and medicine to boost our immune systems. It's up to our immune system to beat the virus because there is no cure for it.

http://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

IMO, this is a very important topic that impact lives and should be moved to Odds and Ends where guests could read it. Being in Anything Goes, only a few signed in forum members could read it so hopefully a mod can move it to Odds and Ends.
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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #16 on: February 04, 2020, 07:23:17 PM »

Good news. The first man in the US diagnosed with the coronavirus makes a full recovery. I'm sure he had the best doctors and medical treatment to help his immune system beat the virus.

http://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/1st-patient-diagnosed-coronavirus-u-s-released-hospital-n1129201

Bad news is it seems China is still underreporting the amount of deaths. Most provinces report 0 deaths although some provinces have 1000 people infected. Also, yesterdays new infection count took it's biggest jump ever with 4000 newly confirmed infections.

http://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #17 on: February 05, 2020, 03:24:44 PM »
A friend in our group chat is a Microbiologist and is keeping tabs on this, he shared these links earlier today. Not sure the truth contained in the first but the second is in a journal that isn't yet peer reviewed and seems truthful. The first seems to indicate what most figured but couldn't prove. The numbers are 10x lower than 'actual' we'll see in the coming days I suppose.

http://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594?fbclid=IwAR2oyclU3mCSFfGngnhCbNL1Q1XKtIwEa4WYNBPEgwEcL1ejzYQr25uvHXQ

According to Chinese scientists, the Corona Virus attaches onto lung receptors that are five times more likely in Asian males, Also....Caucasian people are essentially immune because we have the acetylcholinase inhibitor against the virus.

http://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.26.919985v1.full?fbclid=IwAR0rgD_kEjQUd6H5UTyRsnN9lwL68cyHvph6dJ7nRd-HQt67uWi_9c5buFs

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #18 on: February 05, 2020, 03:38:28 PM »
The numbers are 10x lower than 'actual' we'll see in the coming days I suppose.


I believe the numbers are higher. There's less data on the John Hopkins link Gator provided in post #1.  China has changed the way they report. I remember some regions in China have around 1000 people infected and they report dozens of recoveries and zero deaths. That can't be right. The amount of people infected on each of China's regions is the data now missing. If it is reported like it was earlier, it will definitely give the impression  the recovery to death ratio has been manipulated.

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #19 on: February 05, 2020, 03:50:16 PM »
Currently it's showing about a 15% mortality rate (25,000 Dead / 155,000 Infected) which also coincides with what the Medical Journal stated as well.

Severe infection by 2019-nCov could result in acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and sepsis, causing death in approximately 15% of infected individuals.




TAIPEI (Taiwan News) As many experts question the veracity of China's statistics for the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak, Tencent over the weekend seems to have inadvertently released what is potentially the actual number of infections and deaths, which were astronomically higher than official figures.

On late Saturday evening (Feb. 1), Tencent, on its webpage titled "Epidemic Situation Tracker", showed confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019nCoV) in China as standing at 154,023, 10 times the official figure at the time. It listed the number of suspected cases as 79,808, four times the official figure.

The number of cured cases was only 269, well below the official number that day of 300. Most ominously, the death toll listed was 24,589, vastly higher than the 300 officially listed that day.

Moments later, Tencent updated the numbers to reflect the government's "official" numbers that day. Netizens noticed that Tencent has on at least three occasions posted extremely high numbers, only to quickly lower them to government-approved statistics.

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #20 on: February 05, 2020, 03:52:11 PM »
This would also make more sense as to why Crematorium workers at all 3 Crematoriums are working 24/7 With forced overtime.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/we-cant-stop-funeral-worker-says-wuhan-cremating-at-least-100-bodies-a-day-amid-coronavirus-outbreak

Edit: Same as the original Taiwan News story but includes other stories of Dozens of police quarantining a city block after one case was found, as well as pictures of hospitals. Appears to be much more than the "Official" numbers. Don't know anything about the site, but the sources pointing to other pictures, videos and stories are what was interesting to me.

http://www.ccn.com/alleged-tencent-leak-suggests-coronavirus-death-toll-spiraling-to-25000/
« Last Edit: February 05, 2020, 06:04:00 PM by IvanM07 »

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #21 on: February 05, 2020, 06:15:50 PM »
Gilead, an American company, applied for a treatment virus patent three years ago.  The target of this treatment was the Ebola virus.  One of the patent applications was filed in China.   China rejected the patent, even though part of the purpose of the patent was anticipated viral agents similar to Corona.

Now, upon proof by Gilead, that their anti viral agent works on Corona, China is filing its own patent for the same treatment/medication offered by Gilead, even though they rejected Gilead's patent.   They are using Gilead's cure and taking credit for it.

This will not go well in the US.   Gilead is a Foster City, CA based company with tentacles into the Democratic party and the current administration.   Be interesting to see how this all plays out.
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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #22 on: February 05, 2020, 10:34:24 PM »
Currently it's showing about a 15% mortality rate (25,000 Dead / 155,000 Infected) which also coincides with what the Medical Journal stated as well.


Mortality rate is higher. Those that are infected, their fight to live is still going and we won't know the results of that group until the fight is over when they beat the virus or the virus beats them.

John Hopkins reports about 4000 new infections. The highest one day jump so far.

This would also make more sense as to why Crematorium workers at all 3 Crematoriums are working 24/7 With forced overtime.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/we-cant-stop-funeral-worker-says-wuhan-cremating-at-least-100-bodies-a-day-amid-coronavirus-outbreak


My nephew told me about a story he read where someone took a photo of a van full of dead bodies. That person got in trouble. I think most nations know China is underreporting based off their actions of closing borders and banning flights in and out of China.

Gilead, an American company, applied for a treatment virus patent three years ago.  The target of this treatment was the Ebola virus.  One of the patent applications was filed in China.   China rejected the patent, even though part of the purpose of the patent was anticipated viral agents similar to Corona.


There's a risk patenting with the Chinese. You submit the blueprints to your product. They may or may not protect your rights. I wouldn't doubt the Chinese right now are in their patent office stealing the blueprints to the latest drugs and vaccines in hopes something works.

In other news  Chinese doctor who was punished for trying to warn the public early about the virus now has the virus himself. Macau casinos told to close.

http://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/chinese-doctor-punished-for-warning-people-about-coronavirus-now-has-the-illness-203152013.html

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-virus-death-toll-posts-grim-record-rise-passes-400/ar-BBZCynr?ocid=spartanntp
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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #24 on: February 06, 2020, 07:10:34 PM »
Chinese doctor now dead.

Brave man who was the first to warn China and the world of the virus, then punished by Chinese government, and then died from the virus.   

 

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