It appears you have not registered with our community. To register please click here ...

!!

Welcome to Russian Women Discussion - the most informative site for all things related to serious long-term relationships and marriage to a partner from the Former Soviet Union countries!

Please register (it's free!) to gain full access to the many features and benefits of the site. Welcome!

+-

Author Topic: Coronavirus, how are you preparing for it and how it is affecting you so far?  (Read 106240 times)

0 Members and 10 Guests are viewing this topic.

Online BillyB

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 14103
  • Country: us
  • Gender: Male
    • Good Story
  • Spouse's Country: Ukraine
  • Status: Married 5-10 years
  • Trips: > 10
Well virus deaths in the UK are down to around 170 or so today.


See the USA chart BC posted with roller coaster style up and down movement on deaths? UK does the same type of reporting. Numbers are low on Saturday, Sunday and Monday since they report the day prior. Medical staff and government tend to get lazy on the weekend. You'll see the number skyrocket on Tuesday as they try to catch up on the death toll.

http://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Do your part to limit the spread of COVID-19

Offline calmissile

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3203
  • Country: us
  • Gender: Male
  • Spouse's Country: Ukraine
  • Status: Married 5-10 years
  • Trips: 4 - 10
Some random thoughts and questions I have about the big picture of the Corona Virus epidemic.

1.  The traditional way humanity has dealt with plagues, etc is to isolate the sick from the rest of the population.

2.  This virus appears to have characteristics that has made this nearly impossible for a couple reasons.  First, the virus spreads so fast and is so easily caught that chasing it was very difficult.  Perhaps, under the circumstances the best choice was for people to self isolate until solutions and more scientific knowledge was gained about the virus behavior.  The second reason this appears to have been so difficult to contain is because of the long incubation period before symptoms appear.  So many people had no symptoms and were unknowingly spreading the virus.

3.  I am not really interested in playing the blame game as to political decisions made in various countries on how they handled the response to the pandemic (other than China).  There was very little known about the new virus and politicians had to initially do what they did with very limited knowledge.

4.  There is another side of protecting the public for this particular virus.  Rather than try to isolate the infected in a runaway epidemic, there is the potential to isolate the most vulnerable.  Early stats indicated that the elderly and those with underlying health conditions are the most likely to turn into fatalities.  It appears to me that we failed in this effort.

5.  In our county most of the deaths occurred at nursing homes for the elderly.  I think this was a colossal failure.  It turns out that the nursing homes in our area used the same medical staff to go from nursing home to nursing home and infect the residents.  At the time, there was already enough data to know how easily the virus spreads and  the susceptibility of older people to the virus.  If there is any blame to be made, I would point it toward the administrators of these facilities.  They are trained in the treatment of illnesses and are supposed to have a reasonable background in medical science.

6.  From what I gather from the news media as well as some members here, eventually everyone will become infected until such time they are vaccinated with a working vaccine.  I guess going off grid or not leaving your house is an option for some.

7.  If this is the case, then I would conclude that everyone including myself that is in the high risk age group should self isolate and be fearful of becoming infected.  Is that the general consensus or am I overstating it?

8.  This is not easy to achieve.  While I am allowed to work at home for much of the time, I still have to go into the lab and my office on occasion to handle tasks that I cannot do from home.  While we are practicing safe distancing at work, I suppose it is not a 100% safe environment.

9.  Since I am the only family member in the high risk age group there are still threats that my wife or daughter could bring the virus home.  Lisa (11) has been out of school since they closed but the schools are talking about reopening.  It seems to me that the highest risk is if she were to come in contact with a school mate and bring the virus home.  Other than washing her hands every day when she gets home, I am not sure what other precautions she could take to minimize the risks.  Larissa has been unable to find a job in her field of Agronomics so is currently not working.  Although Walmart and Amazon are hiring like crazy anyone that can fog a mirror,  I don't think it is a good idea for her to mingle with the public and increase the risks.  We are somewhat between a rock and a hard place.  Larissa has been ordering groceries on line and having them delivered over the past couple of months.  Only rarely do I venture to Home Depot to buy something I need to maintain the cars and our home.

10.  Other than layoff threats in Aerospace many years ago, this is the first time I can remember being in a selected category of being at risk for something serious.  It is not a good feeling and other than waiting for a vaccine I am not sure what else I can or should be doing.

11.  Have I summed up the obvious conclusions or am I missing something?
« Last Edit: May 17, 2020, 05:14:32 PM by calmissile »
Doug (Calmissile)

Offline ML

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9825
  • Country: us
  • Gender: Male
  • Spouse's Country: Ukraine
  • Status: Married 5-10 years
  • Trips: > 10
Good analysis Doug.

One comment that I posted earlier . . . I heard head of Medicine from Johns Hopkins say that the older folks in USA plus younger folks with serious medical conditions constitute 1/3 of USA population.

Thus the idea of isolating such is not feasible.
Winston Churchill.  “The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.”

Online Faux Pas

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9412
  • Country: us
  • Spouse's Country: No Selection
  • Status: No Selection
  • Trips: No Selection
Cal, I don't know what your health picture is or your approx age but, I would caution you to not buy into the hysteria. Take whatever  precautions that you see fit. It's not like the virus is leeching around every corner to infect you. It really is as simple as you'll contract it or not. If you do get it you'll likely not die. Stay aware, keep your age and health in mind while the virus is active. Don't stop living your life or ask your wife or daughter to stop theirs IMO
 

Online Confederate

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 382
  • Country: us
  • Gender: Male
  • Spouse's Country: No Selection
  • Status: No Selection
  • Trips: 1 - 3
May 9, 2020
Autopsies Prove that COVID-19 is a Disseminated Intravascular Coagulation (Pulmonary Thrombosis)
It is now clear that the whole world has been attacking the so-called Coronavirus Pandemic wrongly due to a serious pathophysiological diagnosis error.
According to valuable information from Italian pathologists, ventilators and intensive care units were never needed.
Autopsies performed by the Italian pathologists have shown that it is not pneumonia but it is Disseminated Intravascular Coagulation (Thrombosis) which ought to be fought with antibiotics, antivirals, anti-inflammatories and anticoagulants.
If this is true for all cases, that means the whole world is about to resolve this novel pandemic earlier than expected.
However, protocols are currently being changed in Italy who have been adversely affected by this pandemic.
The impressive case of a Mexican family in the United States who claimed they were cured with a home remedy was documented: three 500 mg aspirins dissolved in lemon juice boiled with honey, taken hot. The next day they woke up as if nothing had happened to them! Well, the scientific information that follows proves they are right!
This information was released by a medical researcher from Italy:
“Thanks to 50 autopsies performed on patients who died of COVID-19, Italian pathologists have discovered that IT IS NOT PNEUMONIA, strictly speaking because the virus does not only kill pneumocytes of this type but uses an inflammatory storm to create an endothelial vascular thrombosis.”
In disseminated intravascular coagulation, the lung is the most affected because it is the most inflamed, but there is also a heart attack, stroke and many other thromboembolic diseases.
In fact, the protocols left antiviral therapies useless and focused on anti-inflammatory and anti-clotting therapies. These therapies should be done immediately, even at home, in which the treatment of patients responds very well.
If the Chinese had denounced it, they would have invested in-home therapy, not intensive care! So, the way to fight it is with antibiotics, anti-inflammatories and anticoagulants.
An Italian pathologist reports that the hospital in Bergamo did a total of 50 autopsies and one in Milan, 20, that is, the Italian series is the highest in the world, the Chinese did only 3, which seems to fully confirm the information.
In a nutshell, the disease is determined by disseminated intravascular coagulation triggered by the virus; therefore, it is not pneumonia but pulmonary thrombosis, a major diagnostic error.
Some world leaders doubled the number of resuscitation places in the ICU, with unnecessary exorbitant costs.
According to the Italian pathologist, treatment in ICUs is useless if thromboembolism is not resolved first. “If we ventilate a lung where blood does not circulate, it is useless, in fact, nine (9) patients out of ten (10) will die because the problem is cardiovascular, not respiratory.”
“It is venous micro thrombosis, not pneumonia, that determines mortality.”
According to the literature, inflammation induces thrombosis through a complex but well-known pathophysiological mechanism.
Unfortunately, what the scientific literature said, especially Chinese until mid-March was that anti-inflammatory drugs should not be used.
Now, the therapy being used in Italy is with anti-inflammatories and antibiotics, as in influenza, and the number of hospitalized patients has been reduced.
He also discovered that many deaths, even in their 40s, had a history of fever for 10 to 15 days, which were not treated properly.
The inflammation does a great deal of tissue damage and creates ground for thrombus formation. However, the main problem is not the virus, but the immune hyper reaction that destroys the cell where the virus is installed.
In fact, patients with rheumatoid arthritis have never needed to be admitted to the ICU because they are on corticosteroid therapy, which is a great anti-inflammatory.
With this important discovery, it is possible to return to normal life and open closed deals due to the quarantine, though not immediately, but with time.
Kindly share so that the health authorities of each country can make their respective analysis of this information, prevent further deaths and redirect investments appropriately; the vaccine may come later.

« Last Edit: May 17, 2020, 06:14:22 PM by Confederate »
War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength.
George Orwell 1984

Online GQBlues

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10027
  • Country: us
  • Spouse's Country: No Selection
  • Status: No Selection
  • Trips: None (yet)
11.  Have I summed up the obvious conclusions or am I missing something?

Missing? Yes and No.

Recorded case in the US is 1,528,000. This number represents known (tested) positive cases. 'Experts' suggest that the rate of people infected with COVID is actually up to about 10 times the number of known cases. Short order, worse case: say 15,280,000 total number of people infected. In a country with a population of 331,000,000 +, this suggests a ratio of about 22:1.  Average it out, it suggests it will take a non-infected person 21 different persons to get the virus from. Could be the first person, maybe the last or even somewhere in between. BUT, as an engineer, you should also know to apply both specific and sensitivity to that number. Take the actual applied cases above specific to your area. That 21:1 ratio will definitely be on a proper sliding scale.

If you're sheltering, which I would suggest based on your age and 'health' that you do, this already means you're only exposure is with generally the same folks. Wife and child certainly can add to this, but having them observe proper mitigation measures would 'help' lessen the chances.

MIT Economics did its research covering lockdowns and its effect. The link I gave is a PDF document report of that research. Otherwise, here's the website.

Wall Street Journal did a report in summary, too. The research calls your case 'targeted lockdown'.

Do what you feel you must for yourself.
« Last Edit: May 17, 2020, 06:33:11 PM by GQBlues »
Quote from: msmob
1. Because of 'man', global warming is causing desert and arid areas to suffer long, dry spell.
2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming.
3. N95 mask will choke you dead after 30 min. of use.

Online BillyB

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 14103
  • Country: us
  • Gender: Male
    • Good Story
  • Spouse's Country: Ukraine
  • Status: Married 5-10 years
  • Trips: > 10

 Since I am the only family member in the high risk age group there are still threats that my wife or daughter could bring the virus home. 

 I am not sure what other precautions she could take to minimize the risks.


If you got central air delivering heat and cool air throughout the home, turn it off and close the vents. CNN's Chris Cuomo got the virus and self isolated in his basement. Eventually his wife and two of his kids got infected. There's a chance your family can bring it home but you can minimize the chances you get infected. Hopefully we have the best Christmas ever with the announcement of a working vaccine.
Do your part to limit the spread of COVID-19

Offline calmissile

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3203
  • Country: us
  • Gender: Male
  • Spouse's Country: Ukraine
  • Status: Married 5-10 years
  • Trips: 4 - 10
Confederate...

Thank your for the post.  Very interesting.  I wish I had the skills in medical science to evaluate the credibility of the report.  It would appear to me that it goes against the grain of all our "USA Experts" that are quoted on TV.  It is either a very well written
hoax or a breakthrough in diagnosing and treating the victims of the virus.

I would also suggest in the future that you add a blank line between paragraphs. It makes it a lot easier to read.

Do you know if there has been any peer review in Europe of this report?  If so, can you provide any links?

It also brings up another curious question.  The report does not mention the use of HCQ and Zinc in the treatment.  Was there anything that indicates one way or the other whether HCQ had any value for his suggested treatments?
« Last Edit: May 17, 2020, 07:13:08 PM by calmissile »
Doug (Calmissile)

Online Confederate

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 382
  • Country: us
  • Gender: Male
  • Spouse's Country: No Selection
  • Status: No Selection
  • Trips: 1 - 3
Confederate...

Thank your for the post.  Very interesting.  I wish I had the skills in medical science to evaluate the credibility of the report.  It would appear to me that it goes against the grain of all our "USA Experts" that are quoted on TV.  It is either a very well written
hoax or a breakthrough in diagnosing and treating the victims of the virus.

I would also suggest in the future that you add a blank line between paragraphs. It makes it a lot easier to read.

Do you know if there has been any peer review in Europe of this report?  If so, can you provide any links?

It also brings up another curious question.  The report does not mention the use of HCQ and Zinc in the treatment.  Was there anything that indicates one way or the other whether HCQ had any value for his suggested treatments?

Good evening Calmissile, I saw it on Facebook and thought it very interesting. Other than that it’s all I know about it.

BTW I have a fresh squeezed lemon several days a week. Today I did similar to what they mentioned with honey, but a much smaller dose of aspirin.

Seems to me steroidal anti-inflammatories might have promise; consult your MD of choice for their advice.

http://m.facebook.com/debizzlesizzles/posts/130957065234138
War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength.
George Orwell 1984

Online Confederate

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 382
  • Country: us
  • Gender: Male
  • Spouse's Country: No Selection
  • Status: No Selection
  • Trips: 1 - 3
War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength.
George Orwell 1984

Offline Boethius

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2033
  • Country: 00
  • Spouse's Country: No Selection
  • Status: No Selection
  • Trips: No Selection
I sent the facebook link to a physician, a professor of medicine working on the front lines of the COVID crisis.  Here is the response -


Unlikely.  I think it is multi system organ failure in extreme cases.  You see DIC, or thrombosis in severe cases of systemic inflammatory response.  It's not just one system affected.  It's important to remember that most patients (90%) are fine . . . more likely with a respiratory infection than thrombosis.




This post was composted without the aid of google.
True love begins when nothing is looked for in return.  Antoine de Saint-Exupery

Online SteveInBoston

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 452
  • Country: us
  • Gender: Male
  • Spouse's Country: Ukraine
  • Status: Married 0-2 years
  • Trips: 1 - 3
http://aapsonline.org/about-aaps/
It's a non-partisan group of medical physicians, Steve. Where exactly did it say they are either a conservative or liberal, or any political affiliation in their website? Please point it out for me.

Are these doctors fake? Do they have an agenda, you think? If so, please provide proof.

As for their clinical citations provided in their findings, are you saying they are fabricated? I'm not sure what you're implying so please elaborate.

Really?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Association_of_American_Physicians_and_Surgeons

http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Association_of_American_Physicians_and_Surgeons

http://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/aaps-make-health-care-great-again/607015/

http://sciencebasedmedicine.org/the-journal-of-american-physicians-and-surgeons-ideology-trumps-science-based-medicine/

http://scienceblogs.com/ethicsandscience/2009/05/05/fake-journals-versus-bad-journ

http://respectfulinsolence.com/2006/03/14/journal-of-american-physicians/

http://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/lookup2.php?strID=C00041590&cycle=2018

http://www.crunchbase.com/organization/association-of-american-physicians-surgeons#section-overview


Not to be confused with American Association of Physician Specialists, which actually is non partisan.


And about that article that HCQ improves recovery of Covid 19.  The article states that, but if you look at the data they are using to justify that statement, it is just a list of number of patients treated with HCQ and the results.  None of them were studies, where you have to compare against something, like a control group of similar size that has not been treated, or treated with another drug.   

By omission, the control group is the overall cases vs recovery of Covid 19 patients ouside the 2000+ people added up in the various reports.   About 90% recovery of Covid-19 patients who were treated with HCQ is actually worse than the global average of 93%, 94% for USA.


Online GQBlues

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10027
  • Country: us
  • Spouse's Country: No Selection
  • Status: No Selection
  • Trips: None (yet)
Really?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Association_of_American_Physicians_and_Surgeons

http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Association_of_American_Physicians_and_Surgeons

http://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/aaps-make-health-care-great-again/607015/

http://sciencebasedmedicine.org/the-journal-of-american-physicians-and-surgeons-ideology-trumps-science-based-medicine/

http://scienceblogs.com/ethicsandscience/2009/05/05/fake-journals-versus-bad-journ

http://respectfulinsolence.com/2006/03/14/journal-of-american-physicians/

http://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/lookup2.php?strID=C00041590&cycle=2018

http://www.crunchbase.com/organization/association-of-american-physicians-surgeons#section-overview

Speaking of non-partisan, I really like these links, Steve. Good job! Especially the one with WIKI where it credited MSNBC's Rachel Maddow's show for the write-up.

And of course, The Atlantic! The publication that endorsed Hillary Clinton, same gal that financed the dossier to start the Russian collusion Then lobbied for Trump's impeachment way back in 2017, then this...
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/03/impeachment-trump/580468/

RespectfulInsolence, CrunchBase, scienbasedmediine, scienceblog! WOW! A lot of very notable establishments there, man! A very impressive list indeed. Keep it coming, bud!

Quote
And about that article that HCQ improves recovery of Covid 19.  The article states that, but if you look at the data they are using to justify that statement, it is just a list of number of patients treated with HCQ and the results.  None of them were studies, where you have to compare against something, like a control group of similar size that has not been treated, or treated with another drug.

You mean like take ten 10 patients and administer the drug, and take another and administer placebo, right? This is what you're alluding to, and only IF the ten patients administered with placebo all died while the ten HCQ patients lived, then you got your 'studies'. Would you be one of those willing persons being administered placebo to while struck with the virus for the exercise? To see if the other 10 survives and not you? Oh wait, maybe they lie to these folks by saying they're giving them a treatment but not really, right?

Hell, at least in Italy they don't even bother with that. They just cart them off a room and leave them there and then come back later to collect the body.

You have people alive today that went through the process and would vouch the drug was their turning point! Do those even count with you? Maybe no because you'd say it's anecdotal? Or maybe they're being political plants? LMAO. How many people would it take for you for this to become relevant?  You're looking for guarantee? To quote Donna_Pedro, "buy a toaster1".

Quote
By omission, the control group is the overall cases vs recovery of Covid 19 patients ouside the 2000+ people added up in the various reports.   About 90% recovery of Covid-19 patients who were treated with HCQ is actually worse than the global average of 93%, 94% for USA...

BS! You just did the same thing the data you just demonize had done. How the heck can you conclude the US have a 94% survival rate by equating the reported death rate from the total case when these are not only active cases, but many are in serious/critical condition.

You are stuck saying nothing is valid unless a study is conducted and completed, yet leaped frog your own conclusion based on an active and ongoing cases. You haven't even included the asymptomatic cases that no one knows for sure how many.

Here's the bottom line. You don't buy HCQ is effective because clinical trials are missing, Good! Some people do - I do simply because you have people who survived and stated it was because of the drug, with support from their own physicians or doctors that treated them. Unless those doctors or their physicians attest it wasn't so, then I believe them.

You believe continued lockdowns are great! Good. I don't. People like you can stay home, others can go. Conitnued lockdowns are idiotic and far deadlier than this virus will ever be.
« Last Edit: May 17, 2020, 10:38:11 PM by GQBlues »
Quote from: msmob
1. Because of 'man', global warming is causing desert and arid areas to suffer long, dry spell.
2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming.
3. N95 mask will choke you dead after 30 min. of use.

Online GQBlues

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10027
  • Country: us
  • Spouse's Country: No Selection
  • Status: No Selection
  • Trips: None (yet)
Colorado is the first state I know that will now begin to report accurate causes of death.

http://www.coloradoan.com/story/news/2020/05/16/colorado-changes-how-coronavirus-deaths-state-counted/5198485002/

Maybe someday we'll find out exactly, or at least close to it, how many of the dead actually died BECAUSE of COVID, not died WITH COVID of other causes.
Quote from: msmob
1. Because of 'man', global warming is causing desert and arid areas to suffer long, dry spell.
2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming.
3. N95 mask will choke you dead after 30 min. of use.

Online msmob

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9739
  • Country: ie
  • Gender: Male
  • Spouse's Country: Russia
  • Status: No Selection
  • Trips: > 10
UK does the same type of reporting. Numbers are low on Saturday, Sunday and Monday since they report the day prior.



Bugger, you quoted Trench...  He knows VERY well the weekend figures are very low.

Of course people aren't 'lazy' at the weekends ... it is an accepted FACT that civil servants are allowed a weekend break
We'll be back, EU ..and as a certain 'gentleman' couldn't accept my offer to 'bury the hatchet' .. Don't trust a clueless Californian 'business owner' who cannot even quote me, honestly ..

Offline Shadow

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8905
  • Country: nl
  • Gender: Male
    • Family Fireplace
  • Spouse's Country: Russia
  • Status: Married > 10 years
  • Trips: > 10
Calmissile,
Your assesment is pretty good, the main thing is being careful and watching yourself for symptoms as early as possible. If you have as only problem your age and are otherwise in good health, do not panic. A Dutch woman of 104 years old survived COVID-19, age is not the primary factor.Yet it pays off to be aware. For myself, due to my other health issue I will be working from home until the end of June anyway, and due to a history of asthma and a double pneumonia that feels pretty safe.
No it is not a dog. Its really how I look.  ;)

Offline BC

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 11779
  • Country: it
  • Gender: Male
  • Spouse's Country: Russia
  • Status: Married > 10 years
  • Trips: 4 - 10

Hell, at least in Italy they don't even bother with that. They just cart them off a room and leave them there and then come back later to collect the body.


There you go again GQ.. spewing swill.

At least here they tried, instead of just writing folks off the books.  Remember the number 40,000 and send your condolences to the rest.

Offline BC

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 11779
  • Country: it
  • Gender: Male
  • Spouse's Country: Russia
  • Status: Married > 10 years
  • Trips: 4 - 10
I sent the facebook link to a physician, a professor of medicine working on the front lines of the COVID crisis.  Here is the response -

As reported a while back, heparin has been used in Italy since April with reportedly good results (anecdotal)

Around 20 trials are underway but no concrete results yet, 5 are already recruiting.

http://www.msn.com/it-it/notizie/italia/coronavirus-la-cura-sperimentale-con-leparina-funziona/ar-BB12q0UV

http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?term=heparin&cond=COVID&Search=Apply&recrs=a&age_v=&gndr=&type=&rslt=

Offline Trenchcoat

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5436
  • Country: gb
  • Gender: Male
  • Spouse's Country: No Selection
  • Status: Looking 3-5 years
  • Trips: 4 - 10
If we can keep the 'r' number below 1 then eventually we should reach a point where the number of infected falls to 0. Do that in every nation throughout the world and after a couple of weeks or so any trace of the virus left around will degrade and the virus will be gone presumably never to return.

The only slight caveat in this is whether it could/would jump from the animal population to humans again through close contact or whatever. We are assuming of course that the Chinese might have at last learnt their lesson and are not dumb enough to eat wild animals, bat droppings or whatever decaying animal they like to serve up as a delicacy ::)
No Deal is Ideal, It's a Free Britain we want :)

Offline Shadow

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8905
  • Country: nl
  • Gender: Male
    • Family Fireplace
  • Spouse's Country: Russia
  • Status: Married > 10 years
  • Trips: > 10
If we can keep the 'r' number below 1 then eventually we should reach a point where the number of infected falls to 0. Do that in every nation throughout the world and after a couple of weeks or so any trace of the virus left around will degrade and the virus will be gone presumably never to return.

The only slight caveat in this is whether it could/would jump from the animal population to humans again through close contact or whatever. We are assuming of course that the Chinese might have at last learnt their lesson and are not dumb enough to eat wild animals, bat droppings or whatever decaying animal they like to serve up as a delicacy ::)
As China is pretty big with a large population of which most will not even understand there was a panic, the next case is just a matter of time.Perhaps there is already a new corona virus somewhere in China, it just has not yet made it to the cities.
No it is not a dog. Its really how I look.  ;)

Online GQBlues

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10027
  • Country: us
  • Spouse's Country: No Selection
  • Status: No Selection
  • Trips: None (yet)
LA, first city in the US, to open testing to its residents.

http://www.lacity.org/highlights/free-covid-19-testing-now-open-all-residents-or-without-symptoms

Now if only our city would follow suit and stop the mindless lockdown we can make the left coast great again.
Quote from: msmob
1. Because of 'man', global warming is causing desert and arid areas to suffer long, dry spell.
2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming.
3. N95 mask will choke you dead after 30 min. of use.

Offline Gator

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 15964
  • Country: us
  • Gender: Male
  • Spouse's Country: Russia
  • Status: Married 5-10 years
  • Trips: > 10

MIT Economics did its research covering lockdowns and its effect. The link I gave is a PDF document report of that research. Otherwise, here's the website.

Wall Street Journal did a report in summary, too. The research calls your case 'targeted lockdown'.


You mention this MIT work with little fanfare, yet it is significant because it shows a "targeted lockdown" will result in 50% less  economic damage (and the same number of deaths) as a uniform lockdown.  Adjustments can be made to reduce deaths by 50% with the same economic damage as a uniform lockdown. 

The important takeaway  is uniform lockdown is wrong.  "...once the most vulnerable group is protected, the other groups can be reincorporated into the economy more quickly.”
 

Florida closed  schools and restaurants in the lockdown yet was less stringent in many other regards.  Unlike New York, Florida focused on senior centers and nursing homes given their prevalence in the state.  New York strangely kept diagnosed COVID-19 patients in their nursing homes even though the  hospitals provided on an emergency basis by the Feds went underutilized.     

Given our experience with math models of the pandemic, the mention of another model makes my eyes roll.   ::)    However, MIT discloses their differential equations and assumptions and it seems better than what I have seen with other models.  The WSJ mentioned that the MIT economic results are similar to results developed by the Univ. of Chicago.   

 

Online msmob

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9739
  • Country: ie
  • Gender: Male
  • Spouse's Country: Russia
  • Status: No Selection
  • Trips: > 10


Now if only our city would follow suit and stop the mindless lockdown we can make the left coast great again.

I suppose you mean, lifting the 'mindless' lockdown will cull the vulnerable and old and those who didn't even think they were either ... REAL 'smart' ..

« Last Edit: May 18, 2020, 08:41:43 AM by msmob »
We'll be back, EU ..and as a certain 'gentleman' couldn't accept my offer to 'bury the hatchet' .. Don't trust a clueless Californian 'business owner' who cannot even quote me, honestly ..

Offline Gator

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 15964
  • Country: us
  • Gender: Male
  • Spouse's Country: Russia
  • Status: Married 5-10 years
  • Trips: > 10

This post was composted without the aid of google.


Finally, the truth!!!  I believe we already have ample detritus in RWD posts. 

 :ROFL: :ROFL: :ROFL:

Thanks, I needed something humorous today. 

Are you planning the start of your vegetable garden? 
« Last Edit: May 18, 2020, 08:05:34 AM by Gator »

Online GQBlues

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10027
  • Country: us
  • Spouse's Country: No Selection
  • Status: No Selection
  • Trips: None (yet)
You mention this MIT work with little fanfare, yet it is significant because it shows a "targeted lockdown" will result in 50% less  economic damage (and the same number of deaths) as a uniform lockdown.  Adjustments can be made to reduce deaths by 50% with the same economic damage as a uniform lockdown. 

The important takeaway  is uniform lockdown is wrong.  "...once the most vulnerable group is protected, the other groups can be reincorporated into the economy more quickly.”
 


It's sign of the times. Maybe just in this site. After reading it, I am reminded how they were exhaustively calculating and literally considered almost every detail necessary and tried not to disregard key components of every scenario. Both numerically and logically.

Quote
Florida closed  schools and restaurants in the lockdown yet was less stringent in many other regards.  Unlike New York, Florida focused on senior centers and nursing homes given their prevalence in the state.  New York strangely kept diagnosed COVID-19 patients in their nursing homes even though the  hospitals provided on an emergency basis by the Feds went underutilized.


Largely ignored was Gov. Cuomo's admission that 67% of their fatalities were people who actually sheltered from home.


It's been 3 weeks now, and I remember folks saying Georgia will be the next NY due to its governor opening up too soon, including what is termed *non-essential* businesses. You'd think the MSM will be like flies over a carcass on this one by now.


California have +3,000 deaths in a state with a population of 40 million. To stop an economic machine that's rated as the 5th largest economy globally with the current survival rate with a tick below 99% is just absolutely INSANE!     

Quote
Given our experience with math models of the pandemic, the mention of another model makes my eyes roll.   ::)    However, MIT discloses their differential equations and assumptions and it seems better than what I have seen with other models.  The WSJ mentioned that the MIT economic results are similar to results developed by the Univ. of Chicago.


I concur.

« Last Edit: May 18, 2020, 08:24:46 AM by GQBlues »
Quote from: msmob
1. Because of 'man', global warming is causing desert and arid areas to suffer long, dry spell.
2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming.
3. N95 mask will choke you dead after 30 min. of use.

 

+-RWD Stats

Members
Total Members: 8773
Latest: Ridcully
New This Month: 3
New This Week: 3
New Today: 0
Stats
Total Posts: 510953
Total Topics: 19804
Most Online Today: 1867
Most Online Ever: 12701
(January 14, 2020, 07:04:55 AM)
Users Online
Members: 24
Guests: 1760
Total: 1784

+-Recent Posts

Re: Trippin in St Pete by krimster2
Today at 07:41:16 PM

Re: What Jacket to buy? by krimster2
Today at 07:18:04 PM

Garden camouflage & RW Texas adventures by 2tallbill
Today at 03:19:01 PM

Local man almost falls victim to online scammer by 2tallbill
Today at 01:03:21 PM

Re: Starting and Running a Business in the Republic of Georgia, Batumi by 2tallbill
Today at 11:18:32 AM

Re: Has she changed ? by ML
Today at 10:40:07 AM

Re: Has she changed ? by 2tallbill
Today at 09:43:45 AM

Re: First date advice by krimster2
Today at 08:46:10 AM

Re: First date advice by krimster2
Today at 08:02:21 AM

Re: First date advice by based_zoomer1997
Today at 05:18:52 AM

Powered by EzPortal