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Author Topic: Coronavirus, how are you preparing for it and how it is affecting you so far?  (Read 95741 times)

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Online BillyB

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It still seems to me that the bodies haven't quite piled up the way it was said they would. 



Where we live, we've taken enough action fast enough to where the bodies didn't pile up.  In a matter of two months, 1 out of every 665 New Yorkers are dead from the virus. The ratio is worse in the city of New York.
Do your part to limit the spread of COVID-19

Online Gator

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Gator,

Simply too many variables, some known, some still changing, some not yet known.

True, if the sample size is small or if the measurements are inexact.  Neither is the situation. 

First, the measurements are only two and they are exact:  1) testing positive for COVID-19 and 2) not surviving.  These are "black-white" statistics. 

The sample size in this case is not small, but huge, over a million positive tests in both the US and Europe. And Europe includes many nations such as to moderate cultural differences.   Other than our minority population, the US DNA is  European.   And our largest minority has a high death rate. 

And what do these data show: 

Europeans infected with COVID-19 are dying at more than twice the rate of Americans  (CFR of 13% vs 6%).
 


One would expect the CFR to be the same.   Why the difference? 

Let's examine the numerator.  Could it be the US is undercounting deaths?  We must dismiss this because if that were the case the anti-Trump media would be all over it like bees to honey.

Let's examine the denominator.  Could it be that that criteria for whom to test differs between the US and Europe.  If the US is testing more it would detect cases of slight infection, that will recover quickly with little attention.    Could it be that European criteria for testing is for higher body temperature, stronger symptoms?  We must dismiss this because the US is accused of having performed limited numbers of testing.   

I assert  the difference inexplicably lies in treatment methods after testing positive.   Whatever Europe is doing is not as effective as the US treatment, remarkably so. 

BC, do you have any data on the percentage of total European tests that were determined to be positive?  If we can not explain the differences between the US and Europe, I suggest you should somehow get back to the US where your chances of survival are twice as high. 


Offline BC

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Gator,

Why are deaths in NY 1500 per million and CA 96?  Is the healthcare system that much better in CA?  Is it population density? strain? climate? and on and on.

Like I said, too many variables involved and I doubt we amateurs here at RWD are going to be able to point a finger with any valid substantiation.

Offline BC

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BC, do you have any data on the percentage of total European tests that were determined to be positive?  If we can not explain the differences between the US and Europe, I suggest you should somehow get back to the US where your chances of survival are twice as high.

Gator, plenty of stats for you to peruse at worldometers.

Why should I risk going back to the US where the risk of infection is much higher than it is here now and increasing daily instead of decreasing? If I felt the need to go anywhere it would be Germany instead. 

Only 300 new cases today in all of Italy, 274 in Germany. Florida alone 879 so far today.  In my region less than 10 new cases today.

Online BillyB

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Could it be the US is undercounting deaths?  We must dismiss this because if that were the case the anti-Trump media would be all over it like bees to honey.


Actually the anti Trump media has recently been all over the undercounting of deaths.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/im-looking-for-the-truth-states-face-criticism-for-covid-19-data-cover-ups/ar-BB14yyYa?ocid=spartanntp


Undercounting of deaths is going to happen in every country. Some people die in their homes and aren't counted. Before we knew what we were dealing with, doctors recorded COVID-19 deaths as flu or pneumonia related. Leaders from all levels in all nations have an interest in keeping numbers down. Some leaders will be honest but most won't knowing someone somewhere is going to use it against them so they can be kicked off the job. Some regions in China with 60+ million people record one or a few deaths from the virus keeping China's case fatality rate very low.
Do your part to limit the spread of COVID-19

Online Gator

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Gator,

Why are deaths in NY 1500 per million and CA 96? 



Ah ha! I am NOT talking about deaths per million population.  The statistic I am comparing is case fatality rate (CFR) an epidemiology term meaning "the proportion of persons with a particular condition (cases) who die from that condition."   

http://www.cdc.gov/reproductivehealth/data_stats/glossary.html


CFR is the number of people who died from COVID-19 divided by the number of people who tested positive for COVID-19.   In other words, what is the outcome for people who become infected?  In the US 6.0% have died vs. 13.1%  in Western Europe.  That's a huge difference IMO. 


You mentioned CA and NY.   California's CFR is 4.1% (better than US CFR) and New York's 8.0% (worse than US CFR), but even New York's CFR is better than Europe's.     When summing across the United States (and across Western Europe), the  variability such as seen between CA and NY is modulated.   


Quote
Is it population density? strain? climate? and on and on.

Population density definitely affects the incidence rate but not the death rate.  Climate maybe affects the incidence rate, but affecting the death rate is doubtful except for more Vitamin D.      Strain could be a difference, but twice the CFR?   

Nevertheless, this shows that criticism of the US healthcare system is unfounded regarding COVID.  In fact, the overall statistics show the US system is superior.

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Why should I risk going back to the US where the risk of infection is much higher than it is here now and increasing daily instead of decreasing? If I felt the need to go anywhere it would be Germany instead. 

I forgot to include a smiley in my "come back" message.   


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Actually the anti Trump media has recently been all over the undercounting of deaths.


Maybe some, but not 50% of all deaths. 

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Ah ha! I am NOT talking about deaths per million population.  The statistic I am comparing is case fatality rate (CFR) an epidemiology term meaning "the proportion of persons with a particular condition (cases) who die from that condition."   


Gator,

I know what CFR is.  I was just throwing another statistic out there with a large difference that would be difficult to reconcile due to many variables.

We still know only very little about this bug and whom it chooses to pick on.

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If I were a cop, I'd arrest that girl for hoarding masks.


I suspect she is outside of officer T.P. Hoarder's jurisdiction.   ;)
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Where we live, we've taken enough action fast enough to where the bodies didn't pile up.  In a matter of two months, 1 out of every 665 New Yorkers are dead from the virus. The ratio is worse in the city of New York.

Billy I think your stats are a little off.
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In Socal, they call these Trikini..

Some have a different idea of a Trikini.....
Link NSFW....

http://zoozel.net/pictures/2013-04-21/23780/7.jpg

Post composed with help from Yandex image search.
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Offline fathertime

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Where we live, we've taken enough action fast enough to where the bodies didn't pile up.  In a matter of two months, 1 out of every 665 New Yorkers are dead from the virus. The ratio is worse in the city of New York.
I'm just not seeing bodies pile up anywhere really aside from Italy and NYC.   I don't attribute a lot of it to the 'fast action' because I don't think the action has been that fast.   While I'm sure the virus is very bad, in it's current form it doesn't appear it is going to take out 4% or more like was being projected earlier on.   I suppose in the next month or so the death toll will rise by quite a bit because now it appears many precautions are being largely ignored.  I think overall many of the people are willing to take their chances.  Their minds may change if indeed the bodies start piling up this time.

Fathertime!   
I just happened to be browsing about the internet....

Online Grumpy

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May 30...100,000+ gone
Election day 250,000+ gone

1932 again

http://www.britannica.com/event/United-States-presidential-election-of-1932
« Last Edit: May 25, 2020, 11:33:31 PM by Grumpy »
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Online msmob

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I'm just not seeing bodies pile up anywhere really aside from Italy and NYC.   

The simplest 'google' busts that 'observation'...

Detroit

http://www.cnn.com/2020/04/13/health/detroit-hospital-bodies-coronavirus-trnd/index.html

If you are still in 'doubt, you can find the same in Spain, Brazil, UK, and many other nations during peaks...
« Last Edit: May 26, 2020, 01:15:28 AM by msmob »
We'll be back, EU ..and as a certain 'gentleman' couldn't accept my offer to 'bury the hatchet' .. Don't trust a clueless Californian 'business owner' who cannot even quote me, honestly ..

Online BillyB

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Billy I think your stats are a little off.

Link below says NY State currently has 1507 citizens per million died due to the virus. That's currently 1 out of every 663.57 New Yorkers dying from the virus in a couple of months. Earlier I said 1 out of every 665 so I'm a little off but it's probably because more people in NY died today. Keep in mind, there are plenty of deaths due to the virus not counted because they were missed or misdiagnosed. Some may even claim intentional underreporting been happening too.

http://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


I think overall many of the people are willing to take their chances.  Their minds may change if indeed the bodies start piling up this time.


A lot of people don't understand how things exponentially increase and it's effect on infections and deaths. Hopefully our government officials at all levels and their medical advisors do a good job preventing another NY. for the most part, most of America has done a good job. We don't want to shut down too early ruining quality of life, jobs, businesses, and the economy but we can't afford to shut down too late either which will create a great amount of death, medical issues for those who survive it and damage the economy short and long term. Periodic shutdowns will be a way of life for all of us until we figure out how to beat the virus.
Do your part to limit the spread of COVID-19

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Ah ha! I am NOT talking about deaths per million population.  The statistic I am comparing is case fatality rate (CFR) an epidemiology term meaning "the proportion of persons with a particular condition (cases) who die from that condition."   

http://www.cdc.gov/reproductivehealth/data_stats/glossary.html


CFR is the number of people who died from COVID-19 divided by the number of people who tested positive for COVID-19.   In other words, what is the outcome for people who become infected?  In the US 6.0% have died vs. 13.1%  in Western Europe.  That's a huge difference IMO.
Gator,
This is also not a good comparison. The amount of people tested per country varies greatly due to policies and availability of tests. For instance the USA has 45k per million people tested, the Dutch hae 18k per million tested. Add to this the policy that only cases with severe respiratoy problems and a temperature over 38C are advised to the hospital, and you will understand the high death rate is not due to a better health care or less deadly strain, but due to difference in registering and testing policies.While the death rate is 13% according to statistics, representative tests have shown that the actual number of cases is probaly 10x higher, making a death rate of 1,3%Policies and testing as well as reporting changes by country, there for do not read too much in to statistics as they are at this time not comparable.

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I have t admit that I am getting bored with the 24/7 news about the Corona Virus and not much else being reported in the mainstream news.  Fox is focused on investigating the 'deep state' and all the illegal activities of the previous administration and OAN is producing a broader picture of the world but still  spending a lot of time on the virus but does have some interesting reporting on investigative reporting on the deep state activities against the trump administration.  BBC seems to have some international news that covers what else in going on in the world. 

In trying to assess the Corona Virus has been a challenge.  Listening to months of the academics and political pundits has resulted in watching the 'experts' disagree on nearly every aspect of the pandemic.  In trying to figure out the metrics has been nearly useless because the various sources of data don't have the same rules for how the measurements are counted.  Certainly not an oranges to oranges comparison that is useful.

Trying to evaluate the credibility to the 'expert witnesses' that are in arguments themselves is nearly useless.  In the one camp that is anxious to get their faces on TV doesn't provide much comfort to make a determination either.  During a very lengthy divorce many years ago I learned that the legal profession call what I call "rent a doctor" which will testify to whatever outcome their client/funder/lawyer wants them to testify to.  While waiting for my court hearing I spent a lot of time listening to other cases that came up before ours.  In one case a man was charged with child molestation and my assumption was that he was guilty after listening to the prosecution case.  When the defense got done with the cross examination it came out that in spite of normal protocols, the doctor had taken no photographic evidence and often had a broken or absent camera with him when he did the examination.  In addition there were many cases of malpractice in his 'rent a doctor' role he played with prosecution roles for the DA.  His credibility was 'shit' by the time he was exposed.  I did not hear how the case came out but it certainly left a bad taste in my mouth about how the family law and criminal courts worked.

I was going through a mental exercise to try and evaluate the risks of someone my age dying from Corona Virus. Just to put things into perspective I did a comparison of New York State and my County of San Bernardino for deaths per thousand of population.   The results were staggering.  Like maybe an order of magnitude.  Thinking I made a mistake, I went over the numbers over and over with the same results.  This brought up a couple other questions.  What is the most influential difference in the populations and also separating the deaths out by age group and pre-existing conditions (Comorbidity).

The population density questions I would assume that is due to living cramped into a sardine can which includes the use of mass transit for most of the workers.  Also living in large apartment complexes with everyone using the same elevators and subways would seem to me to be a major factor in transmission of the virus.

Trying to figure out the comorbidity factor (for me) was even worse.  Doing an on line search i learned that the experts around the world have been arguing this definition for a long time and the term means different things to different doctors, organizations and there is no international standard that makes one set of rules for how they are counted.  So from my perspective, the data collected is useless.  I am unable to determine the simple facts as to how my medical condition relates to the causes of the Covid-19 death figures. 

About 15 years ago I had a heart attack in the local hospital (thanks to a quack that caused it).  I ended up having a stent installed.  I have annual stress-echocardiogram tests which results in my present heart condition to be 100-125% for my age.  No problems with my heart whatsover.  In fact the portion of the heart muscle has seemed to regenerate almost 100%.  Since I pass the treadmill and echocardiogram at 100% the question I ask myself is.....Do I have an underlying health condition that places me in the high risk category?  I cannot find any data on comorbidity that defines it one way or the other.  What about Diabetes type 2.  I take Metformin which has no side affects (for me) and my blood panel tests show the results well within the 'normal' range.  Same thing for blood pressure.  Totally withing normal range.  Same thing for Cholesterol.  So what the hell do these risk factors mean when your medications, exercise and diet put all of your parameters in the normal range?  Are you at a higher risk category or not?

The answer to that question has a personal affect on my lifestyle.  If I am in a high risk of death if I catch the virus, then I will have to adjust my personal life to continue to self quarantine and be especially careful at my workplace as well as going out to stores, etc  OR if my risks are no worse than anyone else in the large age groups, then I could shrug it off with minimal complications like a common flu.  It is clear to me that since the medical profession is still arguing about nearly every facet of the virus, there just isn't any conclusive evidence to answer the questions.  As BC  stated, there are so many variables in reporting and differences in medical opinions I am beginning to think we still don't know much about this virus.

Another thought came to mind about how to combat the virus and protect as many people as possible.  What about a different approach and instead of trying to isolate the population in general (stay at home), what about isolating the vulnerable and letting the virus take it's course with most recovering with flu symptoms and not even requiring hospitalization?

I have my doubts about the effectiveness of mass testing.  With the exception of those medical personnel that treat the most vulnerable, what is the use of testing the public at large?  The idea of contact tracing is ridiculous.  The virus spreads so easily and it has an incubation period of a week or two the test results are already obsolete by the following day.  Trying to contact trace the people that go through any checkout stand at a supermarket is stupid and a waste of time and money.

Perhaps the 'herd immunity' idea while also isolating the people most at risk would be a more practical approach.

You thoughts?
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Perhaps the 'herd immunity' idea while also isolating the people most at risk would be a more practical approach.



'herd immunity' ? You mean like Sweden ?  Like that's working out well for them deaths wise and few people in Stockholm seem to have the antibodies present ( just over 7%. last week)

Then who assuming that gives immunity ?


We are still fumbling around in the dark, yet some folks think we should go back to 'normal' ..?
We'll be back, EU ..and as a certain 'gentleman' couldn't accept my offer to 'bury the hatchet' .. Don't trust a clueless Californian 'business owner' who cannot even quote me, honestly ..

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In addition, we don't know how many of the tests marked performed are retesting to clear folks that had Covid to make sure they are now clear.

Here in Italy around 1/3 of total tests performed are re-testing those that were infected to give them the all-clear.

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Calmissile,

The only thing we pretty much know is how different countries have handled things and the effects of their actions thus far.

Italy, caught with pants down, via a 45-day hard lockdown followed by 45 days of step by step re-opening has been able to drop levels of new infections to a few hundred per day, well within the range of 'search, seek, destroy' tracking methods that are now uncovering asymptomatic cases. Inter-regional / international travel is still not possible unless absolutely necessary.  High number of dead.



Spain seems less prepared and got hit very hard, maybe more so than Italy.  Their main method was hard lockdown followed by testing.  High number of dead.



Germany had a couple of weeks more than Italy to react.  First, they isolated the most vulnerable, elderly, elderly homes etc followed by testing, testing and isolating along with 'corona taxies' that would visit and monitor those infected and make arrangements for hospitalization when needed.  This avoided filled waiting and emergency rooms. Monitoring closely folks staying at home allowed them to be hospitalized before they became critical, which may well have prevented many deaths.  They did have a relatively short lockdown period when the numbers went down.  All in all, the best results we have seen in EU. Low number of dead.



France, is well France... lots unknown there but believe mainly long lockdown as reported by friends there. Their numbers have come down as well. High number of dead



Greece, a bit isolated from the mainland has also done very well getting their numbers down and managing new infections. Low number of dead.



UK, took a very different approach, seemingly 'let it come on' bravado, semi lockdowns late in the game as well as late testing. Very high deaths and protracted 'curve' much longer than other EU countries.



US, well is what it is.  A patchwork quilt of good measures or none.  High number of deaths and again very protracted curve that looks like it could go on forever and ever.



The only things I can draw from all this is that Germany has managed the crisis very well, with a short lockdown period but with very upfront and proactive early testing, isolation of elderly/risk groups along with doctors in the field monitoring folks at home and hauling them off to hospital when deemed necessary or if not improving.  This kept folks away from hospitals and preventing a surge.  Folks could be directly dispatched to one facility with capacity instead of having to be shuffled between hospitals.

Most of EU is now phasing back into a new normal life with relatively low risk of infections with numbers of infections that can be monitored with related cases sought out.  (except UK)

For the rest, draw your own conclusions from the charts as to what works, and what decreases the risk of getting infected.

« Last Edit: May 26, 2020, 06:55:40 AM by BC »

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The UK 'leads the world', BC

Not a stat the UK daily briefing will cover...



We have the leading govt advisor BSing how he ignored lock down advice and govt. ministers resigning in protest at said 'advisor' not getting the push..

Look who is number 2...

Two nations that kicked off trying 'herd immunity'...
We'll be back, EU ..and as a certain 'gentleman' couldn't accept my offer to 'bury the hatchet' .. Don't trust a clueless Californian 'business owner' who cannot even quote me, honestly ..

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I'm just not seeing bodies pile up anywhere really aside from Italy and NYC.   I don't attribute a lot of it to the 'fast action' because I don't think the action has been that fast.   While I'm sure the virus is very bad, in it's current form it doesn't appear it is going to take out 4% or more like was being projected earlier on.   I suppose in the next month or so the death toll will rise by quite a bit because now it appears many precautions are being largely ignored.  I think overall many of the people are willing to take their chances.  Their minds may change if indeed the bodies start piling up this time.

Did you see the scene on Lake Ozark yesterday? :devil:

LA County's number for positive cases will definitely spike, not because of any other reason than the fact PCR testing is widely available to everyone and a lot more people are getting tested. The majority of these cases will be asymptomatic but would still good since the person will know one way or the other if he/she is infected so they may take proper measure going forward.

I'm on the fence at this point as to whether or not these results should immediately be logged for tracking. We watched the Smithsonian's special last night at how China instituted their programs at the onset of the virus. It's almost the same thing they did in So. Korea, and in some degree, in Japan. They provided apps and used this to register infection zones and tracking...it's invasive in terms of personal privacy, but compelling if being aware is more of your concern as oppose to guarding your privacy because it tracks you with everything you do and where you are. It's akin to Google traffic mapping. You open the app, anytime anywhere, and it'll show you infected people in 'red' and basically how close they are to you....
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The UK 'leads the world', BC

Not a stat the UK daily briefing will cover...

Moby,

Deaths are after the fact, even longer than infection rates by 2-3 or more weeks.  Deaths result from what happened a month or more ago.

This is why the figure I watch most is new infections.


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I'm on the fence at this point as to whether or not these results should immediately be logged for tracking. We watched the Smithsonian's special last night at how China instituted their programs at the onset of the virus. It's almost the same thing they did in So. Korea, and in some degree, in Japan. They provided apps and used this to register infection zones and tracking...it's invasive in terms of personal privacy, but compelling if being aware is more of your concern as oppose to guarding your privacy because it tracks you with everything you do and where you are. It's akin to Google traffic mapping. You open the app, anytime anywhere, and it'll show you infected people in 'red' and basically how close they are to you....

GQ,

The problem I see with these tracking apps is that those identified as infected should be in quarantine and not bumping around your local marketplace.  China was more of an 'access' type app.  Without the proper barcode, you simply could not enter places such as subways, other transit etc.  More a deterrent for those infected as they were being tracked and probably punished if located outside their designated quarantine area.

Italy considered such an app, but in the end did not make it mandatory.  If numbers start to rise, they may do so.

 

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