The Eligible-Bachelor Paradox

[2tallbill]

Misha posted this article in an old thread. I am reposting it here.

The Eligible-Bachelor Paradox
How economics and game theory explain the shortage of available, appealing men

It is a truth universally acknowledged that the available, sociable, and genuinely attractive
man is a character highly in demand in social settings. Dinner hosts are always looking for
the man who fits all the criteria. When they don’t find him (often), they throw up their
hands and settle for the sociable but unattractive, the attractive but unsociable, and,
as a last resort, for the merely available.

There is more read all about it here

http://slate.com/culture/2008/04/game-theory-explains-dinner-party-dates.html

[Trenchcoat]

An interesting article Bill, I think a lot of it is true for both western women & FSW. I think all women are usually pretty choosey, some get what they want by acting directly and others by knowing their limits. Back in high school I saw a girl make a pass at one of the most in-crowd guys in the year, he was tall in decent shape and pretty extrovert. My guess is that girls saw him as fairly handsome. She was ok, slim enough but then most girls were in the UK in the early nineties, I would say she had everyday looks and slightly studious not heavily introverted but more that way than extroverted. Anyway, he turned her down and his mates made a joke of it. So she acted directly but didn't realise her limits but I think she was brave to try, better to try than not perhaps but then again she may have been being stupidly out of touch.

So I think some girls will get what they want even if very choosey but will have a lot of qualities that guys will find attractive. Some girls will be very choosey but won't realise that they don't have many good qualities themselves and fail. I think some girls are less choosey and many will find a guy. Other girls just aren't in the frame at all, think the chubby girls where no chubby chasers pick them up, ugly girls and girls that are socially awkward. Most girls in my opinion though tend to be pretty choosey and I even get the impression some turn it into a competition with other girls stating how choosey they are.

"The pool of appealing men shrinks as many are married off and taken out of the game, leaving a disproportionate number of men who are notably imperfect (perhaps they are short, socially awkward, underemployed). And at the same time, you get a pool of women weighted toward the attractive, desirable “strong bidders.”

- This is important I think. There are women that just can't get off being ridiculously choosey even though they are alone for years. They still look up to the married guys or guys in a relationship and long for the guys already taken but suit their criteria.

A lot of the time I think they pass over guys that might be somewhere near or have a couple of things they wanted but not all. At the same time I can see that women are faced with prospect after prospect that don't match up enough in some ways. One guy will have fairly reasonable social skills but be too short and a bit fat, another reasonable enough height/physical form but not good social skills and not great wealth, another may be bald or ginger, be reasonable wealth but geeky looking, even a bit ugly, etc.

To be honest its almost certainly genes that determine how easy a guy will get interest from women and of course that is beyond all of our control. One gene from the mother that gives poor social skills could have easily been a gene from the father which would have given good social skills.

In all of this there is always what the guy is willing to accept also. I think some females think they get to choose and the guy has to accept by default but that is of course not the case. Some women that have shown me a degree off interest but I wasn't interested in them well it probably came across obvious enough for them not to pursue it. A girl can be almost certainly crap also and this can put off many a guy.

Big question here is whether a guy (or a girl) can change her lot around. Some of course are hopeless cases or they settle for anything. Others I think are near the tipping point but are just the wrong side of it. A full weekly schedule down the gym or a chance into good wealth could change it around for a guy. Their probably the most easiest things to change but even they are not necessarily that easy so it's really a case of the two genders not meeting up as a result in many cases I reckon.

[Patagonie]

A new deal is undergoing.I cannot yet find it out.
And strictly define it.
But more than anything, the covid first effect for the dating market is that
FSU women CANNOT barely travel to the west, especially Ukrainian women who were used since June 2017 to do this because of the new agreement with the EC, it allows them to move without a visa for 90 days every 180 days.
   
SO, SO
Guys,
The rebound effect will be   
1/a lot of women will lure to find some "supporters" for their travels as soon as the border reopensBecause even If they have free visas, they MUST prove a daily minimum amount of money. As usual, a lot of snowflakes will pay for it, dreaming of top model photos from Instagram, rather than doing the job (going to FSU).     
 2/ as the economic conditions have again deteriorated (the country took already a big hit since 2014) so the threshold between moving out for love and moving out to fleece poverty is shifting in a direction ... that you can guess,that's not rocket science. What about traveling since June 2017:(from an Ukrainian journalist)
The number of those who use visa-free regime  in Ukraine is increasing yearly. In 2017, when the visa-free regime  was implemented for only half a year, according to the State Border Guard Service, 380,000 Ukrainians used this opportunity. In 2018, 1.9 million Ukrainians crossed the border with Europe without visas. In general, over 2 years  3 million Ukrainians visited Europe without a visa, as was reported by the State Border Service. Perhaps, compared to the entire population of Ukraine (42 million), this figure is tiny.But here it is worth remembering that the State Border Service counts visa-free travel only on “clean” passports – those in which there are no other valid marks. That is, if you have a biometric passport  issued before visa-free travel regime and issued a multi visa for travel, then most likely, you will not be considered a “visa-free traveler” until the visa expires.

[Trenchcoat]

3M of 42M population may seem tiny but remember many of that 42M population will be babies, children & old people, i.e not likely or unable to travel or aware of where they are lol.

Some used the visa free regime to work illegally as it was supposed to just be a tourist visa. Many took up work in Poland, some used to before but had to exit the train before the border and trek around through the countryside - girl I met in Lviv told me this.

Whether Brexit will affect the return of such I don't know. Apparently 5 million EU citizens have applied to stay in the UK and are staying here at present double the expected number. So possibly Poland will still have need for Ukrainian workers. It's difficult to see how EU/Ukrainian relations will go over time. Being outside the EU means changes could occur at any time. It seems clear to me that the visa-free agreement is being abused but up to the virus the EU turned a blind eye. Ukraine is not likely to join the EU as the EU is now cash strapped due to the UK leaving and virus debt burden plus fairly recent polling suggests that Ukraine is not so much in favour of joining the EU now but that can fluctuate.

I've communicated with a couple of ladies in the past week or so online. Both seem to have suffered economically from the virus, one had lost her job permanently and the other worked in a cafe which I gathered was a bit off & on so she was not doing too well either. The economic headlines tell us Ukraine is going to rebound, growth, etc but in terms of jobs on the ground the picture I am getting is more bleak plus the inflation of 8.5 percent won't be helping.

I don't know if it is me but the women seem more open to communicating now but I don't get the impression they are willing to jump at anything. I think partly they are probably getting enough financial support to see them through even if things are a bit tight and partly because it probably hasn't really sunk in that the reality in which they are now living is different than before the virus and pre-virus economic situation probably isn't likely to return anytime soon.

So I think guys will have to weigh up if the girl is desperate (not good) motivated or as you suggest Pat wanting to take advantage of a western guy. My initial thoughts are a bit more time may get girls there seeing the western guy once again in a very positive light

[Patagonie]

Poland welcomes around one million Ukrainian people; most of them are working, of course.

[ML]

Pat, what about statistics for Ukrainians who travel into Western Europe visa free . . . and do not return to Ukraine.

[Patagonie]

Pat, what about statistics for Ukrainians who travel into Western Europe visa free . . . and do not return to Ukraine.

A number quite difficult to understand, most of them stay definitively, in Poland, IMHO.
 
The journalist I read, wrote this: 
   
here is no exact data on temporary labor migration. Firstly, it’s often seasonal: some people are involved in agricultural work and go to work “on strawberries”. In the second half of 2018, a poll by the Polish recruitment agency Personnel Service showed that more than half of Ukrainian workers worked in Poland for 1-3 months, almost a third – within 3-6 months. More than 35% of Ukrainians came more than three times. That is, the number of migrant workers in different periods of the year  will be different.     
 
 Secondly, such migrants are usually not removed from registration in Ukraine, so their number is counted very roughly, most often by household surveys. The problem is that different organizations operate with different definition of the word “migrant”, so the calculations may be different. In general, according to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, given in the study of the Center for Economic Strategy (Article 36), labor migration in 2017, after the introduction of a visa-free travel, increased by about 10% compared to 2012.
   
But due of  aforementioned problems, data from the State Statistics Service on labor migration are inaccurate.
Thus, according to the Center for Economic Strategy (Article 16), the number of labor migrants reaches 4 million people, and there may be about 2.6-2.7 million people at one-time outside the country. The International Monetary Fund provides 2-3 million labor migrants with a slightly larger  margin.
A similar conclusion came from the teacher of the Kyiv School of Economics, Senior Economist Hanna Vakhytova. According to her estimates, 2.5 million – or every tenth adult Ukrainian – work abroad. But the number of emigrants, says the researcher, is not only due to a visa-free travel regime, but also due to the war and the aggressive policy of Poland to attract Ukrainians to work.

[Patagonie]

In France we also have some people coming for asylum, it could surprise you, but that's true, I myself met a woman who was coming from a wealthy family from Donetz, and basically, they lost a lot, and the brother was beaten, the father threatened and he forced to drop half of his business in the hands of the new 2014 mafia.

[2tallbill]

I would say ................................

I don't have time.

[Boethius]

Most Ukrainians in Poland return to Ukraine, even those that work there permanently.  They are, for the most part, treated poorly in Poland. I've heard that from Ukrainians, and even from Poles with sympathy for their plight.


Ukrainians should not be claiming asylum anywhere.  They can go to Ukraine, or Russia and live fairly normally.  There are a lot of Ukrainians from Donetsk here, but they didn't come as asylum seekers. 

[Trenchcoat]

Most Ukrainians in Poland return to Ukraine, even those that work there permanently.  They are, for the most part, treated poorly in Poland. I've heard that from Ukrainians, and even from Poles with sympathy for their plight.


Ukrainians should not be claiming asylum anywhere.  They can go to Ukraine, or Russia and live fairly normally.  There are a lot of Ukrainians from Donetsk here, but they didn't come as asylum seekers.

Interesting stuff, for the moment it looks like the EU is going to keep its visa free agreement with Ukraine post virus:

http://www.schengenvisainfo.com/news/eu-will-not-revise-visa-free-travel-with-ukraine/

Apparently though the EU are focusing on re-opening it's member states borders so Ukraine will probably have to wait. At present EU borders are still shut to Ukraine, my guess is too that most Ukrainians went back to Ukraine when the virus took off. I recall there was quite a crowd at the border check point.

[Patagonie]

Good news, congrats, that was worth the risk. 

[ML]

For the long-run, I suspect Western Europe will allow in Ukrainians without restriction . . . to fill labor shortage situation as the population ages, same as situation in most fully developed nations.
They would rather let in 'white' Ukrainians as opposed to 'others.'

For a bit of humor . . . back when there was the big push for Western Europe to let in more 'boat people' from Africa and those coming into Greece from Turkey . . . Poland counted in their statistics the number of Ukrainians they had let into Poland.

[Trenchcoat]

Funny how there is a pecking order in terms of nationality in many peoples mind lol. I agree ML I think they'll soon get back to allowing more access now that the virus infections seem to be going down in most places in Europe. That could be handy as WM can find it handy that Ukrainians now can get visa access to the EU(Schengen areas) not to the UK though, not quite worthy enough for that one

[Trenchcoat]

Anyway back to the opening post, Jordan Peterson tells us that women look to date either across or up when looking for a guy. A guy will tend to date across or down, he may wish to date up but that theoretically never happens. That is an overall score based all the traits/situations of one and the other, hypergamy.

I think some girls get obsessed with dating up and hence become too choosey. Other girls tend to have a set score which a guy has to pass or she won't be interested. A lot of it though can be down to what genes the guy happens to get as some stuff like good looks will land him girls without having to do anything, so a lot of good luck playing into it.

[GQBlues]

Anyway back to the opening post, Jordan Peterson tells us that women look to date either across or up when looking for a guy. A guy will tend to date across or down, he may wish to date up but that theoretically never happens. That is an overall score based all the traits/situations of one and the other, hypergamy.

I think some girls get obsessed with dating up and hence become too choosey. Other girls tend to have a set score which a guy has to pass or she won't be interested. A lot of it though can be down to what genes the guy happens to get as some stuff like good looks will land him girls without having to do anything, so a lot of good luck playing into it.

What a headache. In my world, there's no such things as 'up/down'.

Attraction come in various ways, means, forms, shapes, etc...not being too caught up with trivial silliness is certainly one of them.

[Trenchcoat]

What a headache. In my world, there's no such things as 'up/down'.

Attraction come in various ways, means, forms, shapes, etc...not being too caught up with trivial silliness is certainly one of them.

It may seem very abstract but I believe that all attraction can be out down to various aspects, not all the same and other factors become involved. Good genes can give someone an easy time getting relationships and keeping them but even then they can f it up. People can cheat, sleep with too many people that they get regarded as anyone's, get serious STI's, etc, etc.

If you're talking about telling someone you love them, flattery, seduction, charm, etc then that in itself could be put down to a good side of social skills. While some of it might be learned in general I reckon some people are naturals at it and can pull it off better than others through having their certain demeanour. My guess is that you are one of those people that can pull those skills of naturally well GQ without even having to feel like you're trying much.

[GQBlues]

It may seem very abstract but I believe that all attraction can be out down to various aspects, not all the same and other factors become involved. Good genes can give someone an easy time getting relationships and keeping them but even then they can f it up. People can cheat, sleep with too many people that they get regarded as anyone's, get serious STI's, etc, etc.

If you're talking about telling someone you love them, flattery, seduction, charm, etc then that in itself could be put down to a good side of social skills. While some of it might be learned in general I reckon some people are naturals at it and can pull it off better than others through having their certain demeanour. My guess is that you are one of those people that can pull those skills of naturally well GQ without even having to feel like you're trying much.

TC-


I can't tell you one way or another if what you say have merit. Too rigid, confining, structured and limiting to me. Darn too many convoluted thesis I can't wrap my head around. Headache...


What *I* can tell you with great certainty is I'm a walking example of what I preach. You don't have to be good looking, rich, tall/fat and bearded (apparently) or whatever else you believe one has to be as I know I am not one of those. I've had, and lived, an incredibly satisfying social life as a single guy. All that I am is I know myself and appreciate it regardless of what 'other' people, gals or otherwise, think I am. That just seeds insecurities. I never wasted my time with all the clutter and noise.


You need to find that in yourself, TC. Only then will you be able to project and find satisfaction in your social life.

[John Gaunt]

It may seem very abstract but I believe that all attraction can be out down to various aspects, not all the same and other factors become involved. Good genes can give someone an easy time getting relationships and keeping them but even then they can f it up. People can cheat, sleep with too many people that they get regarded as anyone's, get serious STI's, etc, etc.

If you're talking about telling someone you love them, flattery, seduction, charm, etc then that in itself could be put down to a good side of social skills. While some of it might be learned in general I reckon some people are naturals at it and can pull it off better than others through having their certain demeanour. My guess is that you are one of those people that can pull those skills of naturally well GQ without even having to feel like you're trying much.

OMG, Trench. What are you babbling on about?

It doesn’t matter if you’re tall, short, fat, thin, an Adonis lookalike or ugly as sin.
Unless you get out there and get to know a few women you’re going to be stuck in your basement, tapping at your keyboard and drooling over the hotties.

[Patagonie]

Jordan Peterson says a LOT of interesting things,
but in the dating department, he really sucks.
Considering his personal life, married for a very long time, very centered on his career, family, and studies, it's like asking a guy who travels by bicycle every day since he is born and doesn't even have a driving license.
   
What do you things about the advantages of the four strokes motors vs. two strokes motor? 
What are the best tires above 30 degrees on the track?
What the best balance for a car in cornering? 
How much do you think that you can get out from a rotative motor without a turbo?
   
With Peterson, about dating, we are in the same magnitude.

[Trenchcoat]

OMG, Trench. What are you babbling on about?

It doesn’t matter if you’re tall, short, fat, thin, an Adonis lookalike or ugly as sin.
Unless you get out there and get to know a few women you’re going to be stuck in your basement, tapping at your keyboard and drooling over the hotties.

You can 'get to know' as many women as you like JG but everything is relative. Sure a guy that makes an effort to 'get to know' a girl is going to be a step up from one that doesn't. However if he doesn't have enough attractive qualities she will at best friend zone him. Guys can do the same in reverse of course. Imagine being chatted up by a cheap street hooker JG, a bit straggly, tits hanging out, possible occasional alcohol/drug abuser. Now she comes across as a nice enough friendly girly but looks almost a decade older than her age, a decade older looking than you. Are you going to date her? My guess is odds are you are not. Imagine taking her to the Golf Club House!

So you see there are girls that don't match up to what we would find acceptable and probably never would. The same goes for guys. I know of a guy who is short, a little overweight, a nice guy reasonable social skills but nothing spectacular. Well guess what his dating life has been like and the interest he gets from women? I can tell you it's pretty non-existent, sure he 'gets to know' women but they are not interested, even the fat girls. The nicer looking girls want the muscular guys with the good looks, unless the guy had stellar chatting & flirting ability, seduction, charm, etc guess what guy more appeals to the girl.

Most real pretty girls know the phrase, 'I know what I'm worth' - they know they are hot so why are they going to settle for the above guy? They know they can get a guy with much wealth to keep them in comfort all their life, a guy who is good looking and in shape who will give them a great time in the bedroom and feel exhilarated. Or they can go for the standard Joe mentioned above and feel not a lot in any department. A no brainer for most girls and I wouldn't blame them. If you can get something great why wouldn't you?

[2tallbill]

My guess is odds are you are not.

You need to stop the stinking thinking.

I have laid out several methods that are successful, so has ML.
If you think crap, you will get crap. If you look for a scammer
in every exchange you will find one.

[Trenchcoat]

You need to stop the stinking thinking.

I have laid out several methods that are successful, so has ML.
If you think crap, you will get crap. If you look for a scammer
in every exchange you will find one.

Isn't that the point of this thread in the article you posted?

I don't look for a scammer in every exchange. I would be using dating methods suggested if I could easily get over there. That is possibly likely in the next few weeks but ideally needs Ukraine etc to be on the government's green list to avoid quarantine on return.

[John Gaunt]

You can 'get to know' as many women as you like JG but everything is relative. Sure a guy that makes an effort to 'get to know' a girl is going to be a step up from one that doesn't. However if he doesn't have enough attractive qualities she will at best friend zone him. Guys can do the same in reverse of course. Imagine being chatted up by a cheap street hooker JG, a bit straggly, tits hanging out, possible occasional alcohol/drug abuser. Now she comes across as a nice enough friendly girly but looks almost a decade older than her age, a decade older looking than you. Are you going to date her? My guess is odds are you are not. Imagine taking her to the Golf Club House!

So you see there are girls that don't match up to what we would find acceptable and probably never would. The same goes for guys. I know of a guy who is short, a little overweight, a nice guy reasonable social skills but nothing spectacular. Well guess what his dating life has been like and the interest he gets from women? I can tell you it's pretty non-existent, sure he 'gets to know' women but they are not interested, even the fat girls. The nicer looking girls want the muscular guys with the good looks, unless the guy had stellar chatting & flirting ability, seduction, charm, etc guess what guy more appeals to the girl.

Most real pretty girls know the phrase, 'I know what I'm worth' - they know they are hot so why are they going to settle for the above guy? They know they can get a guy with much wealth to keep them in comfort all their life, a guy who is good looking and in shape who will give them a great time in the bedroom and feel exhilarated. Or they can go for the standard Joe mentioned above and feel not a lot in any department. A no brainer for most girls and I wouldn't blame them. If you can get something great why wouldn't you?

Trench, you’re deranged. Now you’re talking about dating street hookers!!!!!
All your ‘theories’ and pages and pages of waffle is just obfuscation to disguise the real problem which is you.

The only way you’re going to know what women want is by engaging with them, putting yourself out there, warts and all and finding what fits.
Good luck, in the absence of anything meaningful you have to offer, you need bucket loads of it.

On a side note, after a few days of rain it’s a gorgeous , warm, sunny day in Kyiv. Only thing is, you’d be disappointed Trench. The hotties don’t wear the short skirts and high heels now. They dress more for comfort, in baggy clothes and trainers.


I’m leaving Kyiv tomorrow, got my test results and certificate and good to go. Cost was UAH 1089. I took the test at about 1600hrs yesterday and got the result by 2200.

[ML]

John, I know there are probably many test locations, but if you don't mind post here or in PM to me the name, location and any info for your test site.  Thanks