Afghanistan

[ML]

BTW, I am having a blast.  My major problem is needing two sequenced surgeries on my ankle.  I reluctantly accepted my Disabled Parking Permit, yet here are so many other decrepit old dudes that frequently I can not find an open space.   Surprisingly the parking places reserved for Veterans are used less.

Good to see your input here.

I have been using my veteran status to get a 10% price reduction every day at Lowes for several years, but just recently noticed I could also use the parking spots reserved for veterans.  They also have spots for wounded veterans.

[ML]

I almost choked watching the news shows today when our State Department types said that we would hope to learn from our mistakes in Afghanistan.

That's because I thought we were supposed to have learned from our mistakes in Viet Nam.

[Gator]

This article illustrates my point about a decentralized military approach in Afghanistan.  Does anyone think Biden will be supplying this enclave and others?

http://www.dw.com/en/why-afghanistans-panjshir-remains-out-of-talibans-reach/a-58921687

The article mentions the heroic Massoud who was assassinated by al queda before thier 9-11 attack.  Al queda knew Massoud had a large following in Afghanistan and would have the capability to defeat al queda and maybe even lead the nation.  In 2011-12 relatively small teams of the US military teamed with such leaders. They missed OBL yet easily pushed al queda out of Afghanistan.   Coordinated US airpower played a huge role. 

Biden could support this decntralized effort again if Taliban gave us trouble, yet I doubt he will.

[GQBlues]

Awesome synopsis of how Afghanistan got to where it is today. Listen very carefully to many of the key details of this commentary.

2,500 troop level was never enough to hold up and ensure a smooth evacuation for all Americans (who desires to leave), allies nd SIV candidates in the entire country by any stretch of the imagination.


April 13th meeting, in anticipation of the May 1st peace deal cutoff date, Biden announced to continue troop withdrawal to less than a thousand. His prime directive was to ensure and protect the US embassy and KIA. At this level, Gen. Milley and Defense Secretary Austin were left to decide how to best accommodate the directives with the remaining number of troops. The directive and decisions were all predicated in the reliance that Afghan forces would deliver their end of the bargain, which at worst provide enough time for total American and ally withdrawal.


April 28th, the State Department sent a tensed order for all Embassy staff to leave Afghanistan. May 15th, the State Department sent a cable to all American companies and personnel to leave Afghanistan as soon as possible.


* I don't understand what Gen. Mark Millet mean when he kept saying *Americans who desires to leave*. I wonder if this was some type of code for the alleged number of military personnel that had been mentioned to stay as a 'counter-terrorism team'
[size=78%].[/size]
The US abandoned Bagram Airfield in July under the dark of night. They did not notify anyone, not even the Afghan Force Commander. It wasn't until two hours later did the commander found out the airfield was all but deserted. They followed suit not long after. While Bagram would've been a better airfield to facilitate and handle an evacuation this large (two take off ramp vs only one at KIA), it was 30 miles from Kabul, and would've required increasing troop levels beyond the 2,500 floor level Trump had handed off to Biden. This would've signaled to the Talibans that the US are making a move counter to its end of the deal.


May 1, 2021, the Talibans only controlled 19% of Afghanistan when they began their advance. By the end of June, they've captured 30%. Mid-July, 50%. All these time - American civilians could've gone and began their departure.


I maintain support ending this war, and still support the notion now is as bad/good time as any other to bug-out of Afghanistan. With that, support Biden for not backing down because had he done so, we'll likely be drawn in a situation where the deal is severed, with Talibans all over the country, and we'd be stuck fighting an unnecessary, wasteful war all over again.

[Gator]

Good analysis GQ, yet today's actions are IMO not the "best" worst option.  What we see today is the result of incompetence.   US citizen withdrawal should have been organized better and started much earlier.  In the words of our ally Tony Blair, this is "imbecilic."  The Biden plan is akin to thinking other shareholders would not sell their shares as bankruptcy became imminent.

A key example is Bagram air base.  It should have been preserved until the bitter end.

The US abandoned Bagram Airfield in July under the dark of night. They did not notify anyone, not even the Afghan Force Commander. It wasn't until two hours later did the commander found out the airfield was all but deserted. They followed suit not long after.

Often overlooked,  abandoning Bagram included releasing 4,800 captured ISIS and al queda fighters incarcerated there.  All are finding their way back to rebuild thier movements.  Some would welcome a suicide mission.  In other words, we need to get Americans out of Afghanistan ASAP.

I maintain support ending this war, and still support the notion now is as bad/good time as any other to bug-out of Afghanistan. With that, support Biden for not backing down because had he done so, we'll likely be drawn in a situation where the deal is severed, with Talibans all over the country, and we'd be stuck fighting an unnecessary, wasteful war all over again.

Surely we have given up on nation building and creating democracies, not just because of the failures in Iraq and Afghanistan, but also because our own democracy is not functioning well.  There is another aspect, an important mission, that involves deploying our troops on foreign lands.  Today the US has small contingents of anti-terrorist military deployed in many scattered hotspots in Africa and the Middle East.  Such is entirely different from nation building. 

OTOH, I am not sure a woke military would make competent anti-terrorist fighters.

[BillyB]

Last week Biden gave a deadline Aug 31st for all civilians to be evacuated.


Then advisors said we may not achieve that goal.


State Dept. releases warning telling citizens to avoid the airport as there were reports of threats to their lives.


UK and German soldiers bravely left the airport and provided escort for US and their citizens while US soldiers were ordered to remain at the airport.


Biden gave a statement admitting that the Taliban is control over there.


Today, the Taliban gave Biden an ultimatum to get US soldiers out of Afghanistan by Aug 31st or face the consequences.

[GQBlues]

Good analysis GQ, yet today's actions are IMO not the "best" worst option.  What we see today is the result of incompetence.   US citizen withdrawal should have been organized better and started much earlier.  In the words of our ally Tony Blair, this is "imbecilic."  The Biden plan is akin to thinking other shareholders would not sell their shares as bankruptcy became imminent.

A key example is Bagram air base.  It should have been preserved until the bitter end.

Often overlooked,  abandoning Bagram included releasing 4,800 captured ISIS and al queda fighters incarcerated there.  All are finding their way back to rebuild thier movements.  Some would welcome a suicide mission.  In other words, we need to get Americans out of Afghanistan ASAP.

Surely we have given up on nation building and creating democracies, not just because of the failures in Iraq and Afghanistan, but also because our own democracy is not functioning well.  There is another aspect, an important mission, that involves deploying our troops on foreign lands.  Today the US has small contingents of anti-terrorist military deployed in many scattered hotspots in Africa and the Middle East.  Such is entirely different from nation building. 

OTOH, I am not sure a woke military would make competent anti-terrorist fighters.

Hi Gator-

*Imbecilic* lol, first time I read this used in this manner.

I agreed with the bolded part with a caveat. I agree that the evacuation should've taken place much earlier. Much earlier meaning shortly after the Doha Agreement. I have noted this sentiment upthread. Very likely, that's where we would differ.

14 months should've been a lifetime to evacuate every man, woman and child they needed to. Why didn't this happen, I do not know.

I am reminded of hurricane Katrina, where people were notified by the federal government to evacuate but many didn't listen and defied the order and decided to stay firm. When the sh!t hit the fan, they went on and blamed the federal government for not handling the matter better. Akin to environmentalist protesting in preserving our forestry on the west coast, and keep it in its natural state. But when wildfire ignites, and with massive amounts of kinder, dry woods and dense trees providing endless amount of fuel, then the blame game follow shortly after. Everyone gets blamed, except the environmentalist.

These American civilians had 14 months to demobilize. The Trump administration, and maybe the ensuing Biden administration, should've recognize the dire need to speedy up the SIV processing to hasten the visas for our Afghans allies, and evacuate them expediently within that 14 months.

Most if not all, unfortunately, was left to rely on one of the tenets of the peace deal which was the Afghan govt to come to a peace deal with the Taliban. That never happened. In hindsight, the inclusion of the Afghan govt in Doha back in 2/29/20 loomed large today. The Afghan government should've been part of that original negotiation in Doha.

Just MHO.

[GQBlues]

Hot Off the Press...


The Taliban said that if Biden extend the withdrawal date of the 31st, there will be consequences and will be considered breaking the peace deal.


http://news.sky.com/story/afghanistan-taliban-warns-there-will-be-consequences-if-biden-delays-withdrawal-of-us-troops-12388436


I did get information about the term Gen. Milley kept using *Americans who desires to leave*. Many are actually dual-citizens and who had already announced preferring to stay in Afghanistan. Rightly or wrongly, these people are making their own choices.

[tfcrew]

[Gator]

The Taliban said that if Biden extend the withdrawal date of the 31st, there will be consequences and will be considered breaking the peace deal.

This could get very dangerous.  I assume Biden will give the store away to the Talliban to avoid a disaster.

I did get information about the term Gen. Milley kept using *Americans who desires to leave*. Many are actually dual-citizens and who had already announced preferring to stay in Afghanistan. Rightly or wrongly, these people are making their own choices.

Some may want to stay, yet they would not be a large number.   The international scene attracts some characters who find expat life more to their liking than the rat race within their home countries.   It is akin to how people settle along America's East Coast.  They migrate from the north.  Many stop and settle early in the journey.  Others keep looking for something different and keep heading south, and the culture changes.  Almost all stop along the way yet a few real oddballs keep heading South until they reach the end of the road.....the Keys. Afghanistan is indeed the end of the road.

[Maxx2]

The international scene attracts some characters who find expat life more to their liking than the rat race within their home countries. 

I guess that makes me a character.

[2tallbill]

I guess that makes me a character.

For sure you are a character (in a good way).

[GQBlues]

Some may want to stay, yet they would not be a large number.   The international scene attracts some characters who find expat life more to their liking than the rat race within their home countries.   It is akin to how people settle along America's East Coast.  They migrate from the north.  Many stop and settle early in the journey.  Others keep looking for something different and keep heading south, and the culture changes.  Almost all stop along the way yet a few real oddballs keep heading South until they reach the end of the road.....the Keys. Afghanistan is indeed the end of the road.

You just reminded me of the plight of the Vietnam veterans after the war. Untold numerous stories of veterans staying and/or going back to Vietnam to find their inner peace. Like this for example.

http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-36363537

[2tallbill]

Biden promised during the George Snuffaluffagus interview that he would
not leave until all Americans are out. Biden is offering Suitcases of cash to
Taliban Henchmen to get Americans through their corridor surrounding the
airport.



Biden won’t extend Afghanistan deadline as Taliban reiterates demand for US forces to leave
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-wont-extend-afghanistan-deadline-official-says


Afghanistan: Most Voters Say Biden Administration Not Doing Enough to Rescue Americans
Twenty-eight percent (28%) say the Biden administration is doing enough to rescue Americans.
http://tinyurl.com/hehtf7y3

Americans not being allowed to leave Afghanistan 'are already hostage' to the Taliban
http://www.foxnews.com/media/hegseth-us-citizens-evacuated-afghanistan-biden


Biden admin doubles down on Psaki claim Americans not stranded in Afghanistan
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-wont-extend-afghanistan-deadline-official-says

[2tallbill]

This could get very dangerous.  I assume Biden will give the store away to the Talliban to avoid a disaster.

You can be sure that there are suitcases of cash being dumped in the laps
of anybody who has an AK47. That's is Democrat diplomacy 101, pay them
off and dump money on the problem. A tiny amount of planning and Biden
would be looking incredible here. But no fear of that happening, Team Biden's
incompetence knows no bounds. 

[BC]

There is a lot we don't know, and probably the public should not know at this point.  Of course, the US won't state all Americans are out, even if all those who want are already out.  Keeps a foot in the door.

A number of countries are working on keeping the airport open after the US leaves, Turkey who is running and guarding the airport, Germans, and some others.  It's not like it is only a US effort and has been in the planning for some time.

http://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/turkey-offers-run-kabul-airport-after-natos-afghan-withdrawal-officials-2021-06-08/

The Taliban have longer term incentives from many sides to keep things somewhat civil.  I hope they do so.

[Gator]

For sure you are a character (in a good way).

Yes he is.

[Gator]

You just reminded me of the plight of the Vietnam veterans after the war. Untold numerous stories of veterans staying and/or going back to Vietnam to find their inner peace. Like this for example.

http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-36363537

I returned to Vietnam 40 years after serving as an Army officer.   Even visited Hanoi and beyond, and saw the dark smoke in the skies above China.

I found Ho Chi Minh City a dynamic modern city.  The life of the peasants and villages had improved dramatically, probably better than if left to the corrupt leadership of the South.  North Vietnam entered as liberators of their brothers, not as conquerors.  There was no revenge.  Young people still lined up and participated in communist style rallies.   

It could be a place for a Westerner to live today.  Not for me, yet the serenity of Laos was appealing. 

[Gator]

The Taliban have longer term incentives from many sides to keep things somewhat civil.  I hope they do so.

Regarding long term planning, the Taliban has always explained, "Americans have a clock, the Afghani have time."  Over many years tea shops were frequented by a long line of Soviet then American soldiers.  Individual soldiers stayed for a year or two, then left, replaced by another soldier.  Now all the foreign soldiers are gone. Now only Afghani men stop for tea.   Little has changed in 500 years.

[ML]

North Vietnam entered as liberators of their brothers, not as conquerors.  There was no revenge. 

Hard to believe.

[ML]

On the news tonight, I heard a Senior Taliban guy say:  "We don't intend to let Afghan people leave the country."

And reporters said:  "Taliban guards are no longer letting Afghan people through to the airport."

So don't know how we are going to get out the tens of thousands of Afghan 'helpers' that we have promised to help leave.  Many of this group are already inside the airport compound, but they are still just a fraction of the total.

[Gator]

Hard to believe.

I heard this a few years later from a German journalist who was at the US embassy when the last helicopter left.  He said the crowds then dispersed quickly.  He rushed to the top floor and saw a cigarette still smoldering, probably left by a major who probably said something like "Fuck it, we are out of here!" while extinguishing his cigarette before boarding the last copter. 

The journalist then walked to central Saigon.  ARVN soldiers had discarded their uniforms and stood in their doorways in their underwear (the customary dress style for men) to await the NVA.  The NVA arrived in jeeps, trucks and tanks, broadcasing on loudspeakers - "we come to liberate."

I talked with a couple of guides during my trip.  One was my age.  He was telling wild stories about Americans using poisonous gas.

The next day the NVA rounded up some black market types and executed them.  Message received.   

[Gator]

August 31 will be an interesting day to learn if the air lift is as effective as the Biden admin claims.

I still have trouble believing our military planners are this stupid.  Surely the Biden staff were making these decisions.   Military officers when they start putting on stars become political as they strive to add more stars.  They forget how to say "No"  to politicians.  An exception would be Gen. Mattis who opposed Trump's withdrawal decision for Afghanistan.  Some of the current generals should have resigned before working with Biden's flawed withdrawal plan and his timid response to the Taliban.

Will we get the true story?

[BC]

Now only Afghani men stop for tea.   Little has changed in 500 years.

Hi Gator,

What will change for many is the loss of a good paycheck.

How do you think that will change things on the ground there for the common folk?  Radicalism gains a good foothold when making a living gets tough.

Sort of makes sense why the army fell apart.  Can't eat idealism.

[BC]

August 31 will be an interesting day to learn if the air lift is as effective as the Biden admin claims.

Much will depend on the airport staying open, and if Taliban promises that travel won't be restricted hold.

Inevitably, someone will get left behind for one reason or another, but there are likely alternative routes set up for getting some stragglers out of the country.