Dubious Mathematics at A Foreign Affair

[Journeyman]

According to their web site, A Foreign Affair (AFA) now claims that they average 7 engagements each day.  So, I multiply 7 times 365 days to get a total of 2,555 men that supposedly get engaged on AFA tours.  That's a lot.

By my count, it seems that AFA is now offering about 30 to 35 tours during a calendar year.  Multiple city tours shouldn't count since they are just mixing the same guys among various tour cities.  A tour agent at AFA told me that they averaged about 30 guys on a full tour.  So, I multiply 30 guys times 35 tours to get a total of about 1,000 men on AFA tours each year.  I suppose this is possible.

However, I now try to reconcile these two totals:
2,555 engagements claimed by AFA
1,000 tour participants on AFA tours
Hmmm, something seems not quite right. :?

What do you suppose "engagement" means to AFA?  Is it a genuine K-1 engagement, or just a guy who claims he met someone?  Anybody have any hard facts about AFA's claims?  

You do the math.  What is the best analysis?

What do you think about these claims by AFA?
Where is the evidence?  Real evidence (not just a few testimonials and photos of a few tour participants).

I will remain open-minded about this, but the claims made by AFA seem dubious on their face.  

Journeyman

[BC]

Cut and paste your post to an email and send it to AFA.  Strange first post journeyman..

[Bruno]

Dubious Mathematics in your post... i am not a users of AFA but your logical mathematics is dubious...

You compare cow and dog.... people can be engaged without tour... by example, i have use a other agency who organize tour but i have use her service only for search a woman... for the meeting, i have organize myself my trip...

Mathematics is a exact science with dubious effect... each people can interpret stastitic like he wish...

With this kind of math, we also could reason that everyone born in Western country this year also will die this year. After all, the number of births each year roughly equals the number of deaths.

[Journeyman]

BC,

AFA sells tours, addresses, and a few other services.  However, most every prospective customer for AFA will be inclined to interpret the statement about "7 engagements each day" as meaning that these supposed engagements resulted from people going on AFA tours.  Like EC and Anastasia, AFA makes money from selling tours, not addresses.  I think AFA is generally a good outfit, but I'd like to see some clarification of this statement, so that it is not misleading to those who have not yet been around the block.    

Regarding simply emailing AFA on this matter -- I've tried that before.  I got no response.  I invite you to try.

BTW, I can understand that it might be a strange first post -- if you presumed that I was entirely new to this realm of meeting and marrying ladies in the FSU.  However, I am not.  I have a good share of experience in it.  I am pleased that you have now engaged me in conversation, and I look forward to your further thoughts on this issue.

Bruno,

You might be surprised to hear that I agree with you!  

You might also be surprised to learn that not only do I generally like AFA, but I've also been on a tour, along with some friends.  I have no gripe against AFA.  I had a good tour, and met a couple of very nice ladies.  But I, like everybody who's been around for a while, see a LOT of misleading statements coming from people and companies in this business.  That also includes EC, Anastasia (of course), and plenty of others.  So, I am simply saying, let's consider this claim a bit further.

As the saying goes -- extraodinary claims require extraordinary proof.  Whether via socials tours or via selling addresses, AFA is claiming credit for possibly over 2,500 engagements each year.  In my opinion, that is an extraordinary claim.  It's great if they can do it.  If so, more power to them.  However, what are these claims really saying?  

Yes, my analysis was very cursory, and potentially quite inaccurate.  But, also, please note that I invited others to do their own analysis.  I appreciate your critique of my very cursory analysis.  However, the question remains -- What is the truth?  This is the real question, and I invite you again to consider the best route to the answer.  As I said above, I already asked them, just as BC suggested, but received no answer.

Again, I invite people to contribute what they believe are facts, plus whatever analysis they think is useful.  I hope our discussion of this will shed more light on the matter than heat.  I think it would be great if there are now 2,500 AFA tour participants doing K-1s each year (or the equivalent in another country).  I simply ask, what is the whole truth behind this claim?  I am trying to discover what it is.  Since there are a lot of very good minds and experienced people on this board, I though I would post here, and invite everyone's good help.  

Journeyman

[Turboguy]

I think what you run into with a lot of the claims is that they have to sound convincing enough to bring in the customer.   If one company does not lie as much as the other they will go out of business and that might have been the best one.    Out of the four first companies I dealt with that worked in any part of the world three are gone.   I think it is a business where you can make a lot of money if you do it right but it can be a tough business too.

I am sure AFA has a lot of marriages they created among people who have never been on a tour.   At least, I am guessing there are a lot.  I know there is one.   I am one.   I have just sent off my K-1 visa for a lady I met through a personal listing I did with AFA.    Actually both AFA and EC might think I was one of their sucessess.   The last time I saw Kyle Steckel with EC we were sitting in the lounge of the hotel in St Petersburg talking about fiance visas and me thinking that was were I was heading.  Of course I went back and found my EC lady was the queen of scammers.   For general information I have done 3 EC tours and '0' AFA tours.

One of the funniest claims I used to see is there is a company in Houston called TLC that does tours to South America.   He wanted to claim his own marriage as one of his successes.   They and another outfit called International Friends used to attack each other in thier newsletters.    Actually on of the earliest gals I wrote to was the gal the owner of TLC married and I wrote to his sister in law after that so I know for a fact the Int. Friends hooked him up with his wife.   It does not mean much  for this forum but my only point is that all through the industry there is a lot of claims that are at least streached.   It is just that way and will probably stay that way.      

[Bruce]

Dud here from CMB......................Why any guys who still deals with one of the big three tour agencies is beyond me?  They have published the 7 engagements a day line since I first started looking at their website in 1999 - that should tell you something right there.   At this stage I would not believe anything from any of the big three, though Dud does work for the most reputable of the three.

[jb]

So, I multiply 7 times 365 days to get a total of 2,555 men that supposedly get engaged on AFA tours.

This 2,555 number would account for way more that half of all the family based visas, CR1/2, IR1/2,  K1/2/3/4 total.  Are we to believe AFA is so good that they do 50+% more business than all the other MOB agencies, as well as persons who use no agencies at all,,, combined?

It just staggers my immagination.

You don't suppose some marketing type would pull your leg a little bit?  If you really believe all salesmen are so honest, I have a good old '60 Chevy I'd sell cheap. I promise, it'll never give you a lick of trouble.

[Todd]

The only thing that I could think of is that the 7 engagements/day could refer to all their affiliates and affilliates of affilliates, etc.  Also, what is meant by the word engagement?  Is it a relationship potentially leading to engagement or a filing of a K-visa?  Another idea, is that they could count a couple twice if the woman is on the site and the man uses it.  That right there, could halve the number.  So, how come only 7?  Maybe the odd man comes over for a tour and just meets his lady love in a restaurant.  Still, 7 sounds like the total number for all of Ukraine for the day.  (Incidentally, I'm not picking on Ukraine per se...just the first country that popped into my mind.)

[Jack]

Hello Journeyman.
 
First I would like to welcome you to the RWD.  (BC, where are your manners)   On the RWD you can post such questions without fear of being banned or your post be deleted or you being ridiculed by umpteen moderators and as such I think a LOT of people are increasingly looking for Russian discussion boards like this.
 
Journeyman you have brought up some good points and figures that should make some people wonder. I have often wondered about those same figures of 7 engagements a day, 2,555 a year. If you took one half of that number and said they ended up in marriages, you would have 1278 visa's a year from this one source. That's a real high percentage of the total number of K-1/K-3 visas granted each year.
 
Journeyman to be fair to AFA your figures are reflecting engagements to tour participants (and I think the number used of 30 men per tour is high) but your not considering, I think, the number of address sales to men who do not go on tour and their would it seems be a fair amount of engagements coming from guys who never went on a tour but instead bought addresses.
 
Maybe Bud can share some light on this. You out there Bud?

[Noyrt]

[user=183]Journeyman[/user] wrote:

 

I will remain open-minded about this, but the claims made by AFA seem dubious on their face.

Journeyman




I agree with you,, I think there are a bit dubious.  I tried to meet some ladies, (vie walk in) using their site/  to contact their side, they informed me they do not have offices in the cities for such meetings.  What?  But you give socials, you don't have an office? 

So with the help of the nice person in Kiev, I get the address of the office in Sevostopol,  sure it's there! But to show the letter from the AFA repesentative to the office people in Sevostopol, they were shocked, and were easily helpful to for me to meet anyone from the site at their agency, for a small fee of course. 

So I think AFA has their head way up thier A$$ selling socials, and catering to high paying tourist meetings only.  They don't want to bother with independant travelers like me who want only to meet women in a specific city, from their site. .  They didn't want me to know where the office is?  They are difficult to deal with. 

It's sad, because I have interest in a lot of women from their site, but don't  like how they operate.

Any opinions to the same?

NOyrt,

[deden]

Hey, aren't you guys being a little hasty here to judge AFA?

Okay, say 'ol Billy Bob decides the bass aren't biting and its time to go a wife hunting.  He goes on a five city tour with AFA and proposes to five different ladies, one in each city.  Hell, don't that count as "5" engagements!    Just gotta think outside the box and apply ENRON accounting practices to your business model.  Than you too can be successful in prison, I mean business. :dude:

 

[Jack]

ahhhhh, never thought of it that way deden. Five tour cities, falls in love five times, get's engaged five times, now I can how the number of engagements add up.

And Noyrt I had always felt the claims AFA made of having an office in EVERY city on their tour was a bit mis-leading. In Krivoy Rog I look for their office, in Donestk I look for their office, in Dnepropetrovsk I look for their office. I found offcies of local agencies they were using but no AFA offices. If that was the case then I guess I also have offices in all of the tour cities we go to as well.

Bud, where are you?  Why do you not share some light on these cloudy subjects?

[Bruce]

Dud must have gotten sensored by the brass.  The last thing any of the big three agencies wants is word of the truth getting out - and the less noise from their representatives the less ammunition for anyone else to pick them apart with.

[Bruno]

It was difficult to find official statistic... but a gov website at http://uscis.gov have great stat... only a lot of text to read... now, take a look at http://uscis.gov/graphics/shared/statistics/publications/LengthVstNonim2003.pdf , table 8...

Ok, the stat are from 2003... these of 2004 are not already publish...

You can see on these table the total of K1 for US in 2003... but the more interesting, it is the lenght of stay...

For all US, in 2003, it was 3889 K1 approval...

54% stay less of 6 month

28.2% stay between 6 month and 1 year

17.7% stay more of one year

it mean that only 688 people of the 3889 K1 are always in US after the first year... and this is the stat for all K1, not only these from russia... the succes rate is very low after one year ( 17.7% ).... Hey guys, for these of you who have make a K1 one year ago, you are lucky...

More interesting... the table at http://uscis.gov/graphics/shared/statistics/data/immprofiles/2003/COBBOOK46.xls ...

Only 185 RW ( former USSR )have receive the status of Permanent resident ( due to the immediat relative to US citizen, not all are marriage )... really, these number are very low... and so much agency for so low result...

For the refugiee, 329 have receive the status of Permanent resident... my advice... dear woman, don't marry a American man for stay in US, ask the refugiee status, you have more chance to stay in us...

[TheArrow]

For the refugiee, 329 have receive the status of Permanent resident... my advice... dear woman, don't marry a American man for stay in US, ask the refugiee status, you have more chance to stay in us...

Bruno, do not be so naive. All these provincial women have no money to pay the visa tax. So they prefer to use agencies to find naive American men to get K1 visa, go to the States and marry there......

Why didn't your Galina asked for that type of visa, eh? Or maybe you think, Belgian men are better than Americans?  

[Jack]

Dud must have gotten sensored by the brass.  The last thing any of the big three agencies wants is word of the truth getting out - and the less noise from their representatives the less ammunition for anyone else to pick them apart with.

 

Nooo Bruce, say it's not so!  You think the owners told Dud not to post anymore?  He did seem to disappear. Guess your right.

 

Bruno, good figures you got their. It looks like about 60% of all visas in one year come from one source. wow! They must be good!

[jb]

Corpus Christi must be an exception to the rule.  My wife and I have been together now over 7 years as a couple and over 3 years as a marriage.  We personally know of 13 or 14 other couples living here who have been together even longer.

Of the couples we've met, there are a few which started as MOB romances, however most were begun as regular dating relationships where men and women were introduced to each other through friends and relatives, or during business trips.

None of these couples were the product of a tour.

[Bruno]

Arrow, Refugiee don't come with visa... usually, they come illegally and ask the refugiee or asyllum status... actually, we have a lot from Techtchenie now in Belgium...

Infortunaly, it is not working for Galina... The moscow woman are not officially in war with the ukrainian :P:D

Jack, yes, US gov have very interesting stat on all... About the K1, it was interesting because it was a previous question in some other topic...

But the more bad info is the 17.7% always in US after one year... really, this is very low succes rate for the K1... and if you see for the K3, it only 7.1% ... and only 185 women who receive the status of permanent resident each year is not a lot...

Several guys here who are married with russian woman for more that two year are very lucky guys... it seem that you have more chance to win the lottery... yep, for these of you happily married, you have win the jackpot :D:D

[TheArrow]

Arrow, Refugiee don't come with visa... usually, they come illegally and ask the refugiee or asyllum status... actually, we have a lot from Techtchenie now in Belgium...

If a woman has her self-respect she will never come to another country illegally, I think. Or maybe I am naive a little?

[Bruno]

Corpus Christi must be an exception to the rule. My wife and I have been together now over 7 years as a couple and over 3 years as a marriage. We personally know of 13 or 14 other couples living here who have been together even longer.

Special for JB ... stat for Metropolitan Corpus Christy TX about personn become legal permanent resident ( marriage, immigrant, worker, ... all together )...

From russia, 16 ( 11 woman )... for Ukraine ( 7 )

Take a look at http://uscis.gov/graphics/shared/statistics/data/ImmProfiles/2003/MSABook73.xls

 

[Bruno]

Arrow, Refugiee don't come with visa... usually, they come illegally and ask the refugiee or asyllum status... actually, we have a lot from Techtchenie now in Belgium...

If a woman has her self-respect she will never come to another country illegally, I think. Or maybe I am naive a little? [/quote]
Usually, for refugiee... it is not a question of self-respect but more of life... they come from place where there is war, slavery, politic and racial discrimination... we are obligate to accept them if they know problem with the Geneve convention about the human right...

 

[Elen]

they come from place where there is war, slavery, politic and racial discrimination...

Always thought they should to stay home and clean the mess there themselves:?

[jb]

Bruno,

Very interesting stats.

(bolding is mine)

Persons Becoming Legal Permanent Residents During Fiscal Year 2003            
by Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) of Residence and Selected Characteristics            

We don't pretend to know all[/b] the RW/UWs living here, in fact we have met several whom we didn't like enough to continue a social relationships with.  Your stats refer only to the year 2003, there are some here who arrived  before 2003, my wife recieved her green card in 2004 after a two year delay.

Green cards don't grow on trees.

[Bruno]

Yep, interesting stat... until now, only russia and usa have official complete stat directly to see on the internet... great...

Now, about year, i think that in some time, we will be able to have the stat for 2004... give the time for the administration...

If yourself, you have time, use the following URL for you basic search of stat about immigration : http://uscis.gov/graphics/shared/statistics/index.htm

The full report for 2003 is 16MB for 220 page... at http://uscis.gov/graphics/shared/statistics/yearbook/2003/2003Yearbook.pdf ... a lot of time for read all...

By example, if you read the table 32 at the page 150, you can see the evolution of naturalization from 1995 to 2003 for russia :

Result, from 1995 to 2000, growing very fast... from 2001 to 2003 drop of 50%... yep, the rush is finnish...

In any case, good evening with the reading ... and if you find the same stat for all europa, inform me... it seem that europa make only good stat for country outside europa

[jb]

You've gotta be kidding....