RW what do you think of this guy??

[Ooooops]

SOooo, "Oooops", I put it to you that "turning back into a Pumpkin" is no bad, thing


http://www.flickr.com/photos/veta_mark/445875718/ ..only -25C (-13F)this night..

Very cute...   

[Ronnie]

mspanky,

Maybe you are correct - but in the absence of any valid data, yours is a speculative conclusion based on deduction.

Hopefully, soon, there will be hard data available from which we can draw definitive conclusions.

- Dan

Dan,
It may not be hard data, but we could do a poll on RWD where each participant in the poll would answer questions such as:

1.  How many times have you been married to an Woman from FSU or a Western man is you are yourself a Woman from FSU?

1a. How many of those marriages has ended in divorce?

2.  How many WM/FSUW marriages do you know of personally (exlude members of RWD so as to not double count)?

2a. How many of those WM/FSUW marriages have ended in divorce or are in divorce proceedings at this time?


While this may be non-scientific, it will be more accurate than any immigration attorney's or USCIS estimates.

[mspanky]

Dan,
It may not be hard data, but we could do a poll on RWD where each participant in the poll would answer questions such as:

1.  How many times have you been married to an Woman from FSU or a Western man is you are yourself a Woman from FSU?

1a. How many of those marriages has ended in divorce?

2.  How many WM/FSUW marriages do you know of personally (exlude members of RWD so as to not double count)?

2a. How many of those WM/FSUW marriages have ended in divorce or are in divorce proceedings at this time?


While this may be non-scientific, it will be more accurate than any immigration attorney's or USCIS estimates.

   This board does not represent the quality of majority of men marrying RW or FW for that matter.  A majority of these guys are real doozies. Probably why the media has such an easy time finding such men for their anto-foreign bride propaganda.

 On the whole the guys on this board are probably better than the average guy who searches for a RW. Also much more realistic. So the success rate may be higher than the general public.

[Ronnie]

   This board does not represent the quality of majority of men marrying RW or FW for that matter.  A majority of these guys are real doozies. Probably why the media has such an easy time finding such men for their anto-foreign bride propaganda.

 On the whole the guys on this board are probably better than the average guy who searches for a RW. Also much more realistic. So the success rate may be higher than the general public.

There is nothing in this statement that I can agree with or that matches my own experience.  I submit the media DOES have a hard time coming up with their "poster boys".  Donald Trump (admittedly a "doozie") seems to prefer Slavic women- Ivana and Melania (24 years younger than he).  Admittedly Marion Morrison was married to a Hispanic-American, a Mexican woman and a Peruvian woman (22 years younger BTW).  Who's Marion Morrison? John Wayne. 
Ever hear of Robert Redford?  Since his divorce his love interests have included a Brazilian and a German whom he has announced he will marry.

So I ask, why do you think it is the losers who prefer foreign wives?  Is it because they are such losers, no one else will have them?

Wherever your conclusion comes from about the majority of AM marrying foreign women, it cannot, in my estimation be based on much real evidence.  I know of only two cases of RW/AM ending in divorce.  In both cases, the men are well-off and Jewish while the wives are Orthodox Christian.  However, lest I leave the impression that religion is a major factor, we also know an RW married to an Afghan Muslim who is poor but the marriage is a happy one that has lasted over ten years so far.

I'm not sure what qualifies one as a "Doozie"  (in the old days, it was "duesy" so named after the Duesenberg which the THE premier automobile of the 1920s and it was a compliment, obviously).

So, let me go on record and say I would be proud to be thought of a duesy.  I also don't mind being put in the same group with the fellows mentioned above or the fellows on RWD and any of those (non RWD) AM husbands of my wife's acquaintances.

[Ronnie]

Furthermore, MSpanky, if you know of these one-week wonders and misfits, the poll I suggested would include them as it asks you to count people you know who are not RWD members.

[Ronnie]

I just had a memory flash.  I do know a third AM/RW divorce.  The  guy is normal, perhaps a little introverted, but normal.  Good job with the defense department, now retired, wife 15 years younger and brought a son who is now serving in the US Navy.  They were married about 5 years when he discovered she was cheating on him.  Turns out he was the last person in the neighborhood to know about the affair.

So now, I guess I'm up to about 15% divorce rate in my own little poll.

[Misha]

So now, I guess I'm up to about 15% divorce rate in my own little poll.

Keep in mind that the divorce rate is calculated over the course of a lifetime (usually to the 50th anniversary or death, whichever comes first).

[Ronnie]

I guess that raises the question: after how many years do you consider the marriage a success?  51 years = yes, 49 years = no?

Actually the calculation that is used, as I posted earlier is simply the number of marriages against the number of divorces in a given year.  Not very accurate.

[Misha]

I guess that raises the question: after how many years do you consider the marriage a success?  51 years = yes, 49 years = no?

Well, when we talk about divorce rates being 50% or 40%, we are talking about the number of people that will get married over the course of 50 years. Though many divorces occur in the first few years, people continue to divorce after 10, 15, 20 years of marriage. Below are two graphs that I managed to find. One for the United States, one for New Zealand. The point is that you can't really compare your cohort of acquaintances to the divorce rate of the country until much more time has passed. You could, if you wanted, see on average how many people would have divorced by their 5th or 10th year of marriage in the overall population and see if your cohort is doing better or worse than average.

[Ronnie]

Misha,

The charts you provided are interesting and most likely were done by a polling method.  You do notice that the charts say nothing about the actual divorce rate, meaning the percentage of marriages that end in divorce after so many years.  The charts merely indicate the frequency of divorces that occurred so many years into a marriage.  The population is limited to those who divorced  - not the population of all marriages.

The issue remains: is a marriage of a citizen of one country to a citizen of another country more or less likely to end in divorce than a marriage between two citizens of the same country.  If anyone has done such a study (which likely has been done somewhere), I haven't seen it.

[Misha]

Misha,

The charts you provided are interesting and most likely were done by a polling method.  You do notice that the charts say nothing about the actual divorce rate, meaning the percentage of marriages that end in divorce after so many years.  The charts merely indicate the frequency of divorces that occurred so many years into a marriage.  The population is limited to those who divorced  - not the population of all marriages.

The issue remains: is a marriage of a citizen of one country to a citizen of another country more or less likely to end in divorce than a marriage between two citizens of the same country.  If anyone has done such a study (which likely has been done somewhere), I haven't seen it.

Ronnie,

Look up divorce rates and how they are calculated. When you hear a stat saying that the divorce rate in the United States is 50%, what they mean is the number of people who are likely to get divorced over the entire span of their marriage (i.e. up to fifty years or until one of the partner dies). The 50% United States national divorce rate may be high, it may be closer 42 or 43%. Nonetheless, of those 40% to 50% of Americans who divorce, the divorces will be spread out over five decades (as the charts that I provided indicate). The charts show that divorces just don't happen in the first five years. The point that I am making is that your "divorce rate" of 15% is misleading as it only takes into account couples who have been married for a few years and at best 10 years. They still have 40+ years left to divorce and catch up to the national average 

[Misha]

The New York Times has a good piece examining divorce rates in the United States. The ideal method to calculate divorce rates: "The method preferred by social scientists in determining the divorce rate is to calculate how many people who have ever married subsequently divorced. Counted that way, the rate has never exceeded about 41 percent, researchers say." Again, this is not divorce in 5 years or 10 years, but EVER divorced. The riskiest years are the first 10: 60% of divorces are likely to happen in the first decade, but that still leaves 40% of divorces that will be spread out of the next four or more decades.

[steviej]

Misha, very interesting info, thanks! I asked myself this question: let's say we could know for sure, based on some data and model, that the divorce probability (whatever that means) for an American man, was 40% for a domestic marriage, and 60% if someone marries a RW. Would he give up the idea? Would he say, "Oh man, that really changes my feelings about this. I think I'll just look for an American girl." My guess is, he would still pursue the dream of finding the right RW. Why? Because I think for a man, he reasons for pursuing a RW are not related to stability, but many other intangibles about the kind of woman he feels he needs and is looking for. He is unsatisfied with AWs at this time, for some set of reasons. I remember reading a study one time that the divorce rate was higher for couples that lived together first and then got married, verses those that did not live together until after they got married. So, I don't think the idea that just knowing each other as well and completely as possible is the whole story behind marital success, maybe even a small part of it.

[ScottinCrimea]

The only statistic I need is that my divorce rate for AW is 100% and for RW 0%.  What others are doing is beyond my control and not of interest to me.

[Misha]

The only statistic I need is that my divorce rate for AW is 100% and for RW 0%.  What others are doing is beyond my control and not of interest to me.

Well, we will only know the final divorce rate AW vs RW when we read you obituary Scott 

[steviej]

The only statistic I need is that my divorce rate for AW is 100% and for RW 0%.  What others are doing is beyond my control and not of interest to me.

How true! 
Life and death is experienced one person at a time, not statisrically. But, would knowing some statistics in advance have changed your interest in pursuing a RW? What do you think?

[Misha]

My guess is, he would still pursue the dream of finding the right RW. Why? Because I think for a man, he reasons for pursuing a RW are not related to stability, but many other intangibles about the kind of woman he feels he needs and is looking for.

Humans are not very good at thinking logically IMHO. We pursue dreams/fantasies and we are guided by desires that may prove to be illusory. What can I say, everybody likes to think they are the exception and that they will succeed where all others fail. It can be good (determination), and it can also have negative outcomes. 

[ScottinCrimea]

How true! 
Life and death is experienced one person at a time, not statisrically. But, would knowing some statistics in advance have changed your interest in pursuing a RW? What do you think?

Honestly it wouldn't have changed my interest at all because I did not go in search of a RW.  The fact that my wife happens to be one is purely coincidental.  She could just have easily been of any other nationality.  It was the woman, not the nationality I was pursuing.  Though I realize that her nationality and culture had a lot to do with making her the woman I fell in love with, I didn't know it at the time our relationship began. After that, it didn't matter.

We know the statistics for many things and it usually doesn't dissuade us from continuing.  For example, I think everyone here who has been married knew the divorce statistics but they married anyone.  Ultimately the statistics didn't play a role in the divorce, nor do they play any role in those marriages that succeed.

[Ronnie]

Again, I think the goal is to use the same methodology to learn once and for all if international marriages are more and less prone to divorce or about the same.  The point being that when a bill comes up that tries to prejudice such marriages, the ammo will already be in the clip to shoot it down.  Otherwise, politicians accept whatever nonsense people throw at them.

[Misha]

Again, I think the goal is to use the same methodology to learn once and for all if international marriages are more and less prone to divorce or about the same.  The point being that when a bill comes up that tries to prejudice such marriages, the ammo will already be in the clip to shoot it down.  Otherwise, politicians accept whatever nonsense people throw at them.

I agree. The challenge, though, is that the timeline for AM-AW marriages will be different than for AM-RW marriages. Before 1991, we can't truly talk of AM-RW international marriages. Most of the marriages took place in the last 15 years. For this reason, you have to be careful when comparing numbers. You would have to compare the number of divorces per 1,000 on a per year basis to see if the numbers are comparable.

[Ronnie]

That won't work.  Most RW/AM marriages are not first marriages.  The study has to be done holding all things constant except the international aspect. 

Age at marriage, whether first or subsequent, and other factors that might affect the data have to be the same.  You're point about RW/AM marriages being mostly newer than the AW/AM marriages is true and would skew the numbers since most divorces happen before 10 years are up.  Also, the where many more AW/AM marriages are first marriages than the average RW/AM marriage, that too would favor the AW/AM because 2nd and 3rd marriages more often result in divorce than do first marriages.  That would again make the data look unfavorable for the international marriage for reasons not related to the international aspect of it.
 

[Misha]

That won't work.  Most RW/AM marriages are not first marriages.  The study has to be done holding all things constant except the international aspect. 

I agree with you there. You would have to sort out the RW/AM couples where it was a first marriage for both and those that were a subsequent marriage. You would then have to compare these numbers to the appropriate cohort on a year-by-year basis and a per capita (i.e. per 1,000) basis.

[Ronnie]

No comprendo amigo, but that's okay.

[Misha]

No comprendo amigo, but that's okay.

What don't you understand? The principle is easy to grasp. You could not simply compare all AM who are in their second, third or fourth marriage because you could potentially have men who have been married to their second wives much longer than RW have been able to leave their country simply to marry a foreigner. The only way to come up with a comparable sample would be to figure out how many AM/RW get divorced in their first year, second year, third year etc... and compare those number to a comparable sample of AM/AW marriages. You could then factor out issues such as whether it is a first marriage or second marriage or fifth. What exactly don't you understand?

[steviej]

One thing for sure, the media both here and in Russia seem to play up the international screw ups much more than domestic screw ups. Man beats wife in domestic, not news. Man beats wife in international marriage - big news. Wife stabs husband in domestic marriage, not news. And vice versa. Peoples impressions, from this sensationalized news, is that international marriages a very unstable, even dangerous. My wife and I know several AM/RW couples. As Ronnie pointed out, most of these are second marriages, especially for the AM. Any of the break ups that any of us know about were all in the first 1-2 years. And you know in this business that comes from rushing into it, usually from the over-eager man: he goes, visits, and in one week is getting a fiance visa for his "true love." But if you subtract those, all the marriages that we know (again, this is no statistical sample) after the 2 yr mark are very stable and happy.