Economic Mournings

[Ronnie]

Day trading is part of what is causing this recession.  .....  Do you guys like this type of market.  If so, keep the day trading alive.

Huh?
Day traders causing a recession?  That's novel.

[Misha]

Huh?
Day traders causing a recession?  That's novel.

East Coast day traders

[jj]

Misha and Daveyj got it right.  The local reporter then agreed that it  sounded like a good idea.  When the cameras came back to the 2 anchor persons at the news desk, they just looked at each other, and one said " I don't think so".

[Gator]

Keeping the topic focused on Russia, one commentator had this to say about the problems in emerging markets, focusing on Russia:

http://video.msn.com/?vid=3f0f48b1-3577-4f3b-811a-82f2e9b14795&mkt=en-us&brand=money

[Makkin]

Day Traders...lol


  I was told this story from a friend who was amazed by the corruption of day traders and it went something like this.


  The person or persons get a list of addresses and send out stock reports. The list of addresses is either bought or obtained legally and then the "valuable" information is sent. The info is something like this.....

   Global sense stock is on a run and will soon hit 2.00 per share due to the blah blah blah...get in on the ground floor etc...

   This is called a "pump and dump" where the players put a little money in daily and the stock goes up daily and then they get "day traders" to pump up the stock and then they DUMP the stock and take your money. It's legal and is a tiny example of what the azzholes get away with.

   My friend actually took the profits off a few of these players and they were not too happy but he was on the mailing list..lol

Makkin

[LEGAL]

Makkin you are 100% correct the very old "pump and dump".  When I was day trading my day started at 8 am and I was out by 11 am those were my very strict rules.  I would  sit in front of my screen with my fingers on the button.  I was buying calls,  puts and leaps.  I have seen guys lose everything, this is only for people that have disposable income do to its risks.

Sorry for the 

[Gator]

News from Moscow:

Banks limit withdrawals to P4000 per day.

Some (many?) salaries reduced by 33%.

Construction has slowed at one apartment complex even though buyers have been required to prepay a sizeable portion of the principal.

A Mosmart store (similar to Walmart) has no food.   

[vwrw]

News from Moscow:

Banks limit withdrawals to P4000 per day.

Some (many?) salaries reduced by 33%.

Construction has slowed at one apartment complex even though buyers have been required to prepay a sizeable portion of the principal.

A Mosmart store (similar to Walmart) has no food.   

How many people are the source of this information? The people who informed your wife of above-mentioned situation, do they have a skeptical mind (in opinion of your wife),  or are they gullible and can be easy affected by info received from unreliable resource ?

If the info was obtained from a newspaper, please, could you give a link to the newspaper?

[OlgaH]

News from Moscow:


A Mosmart store (similar to Walmart) has no food.   

Retail network "Samokhval" also has started to close their stores. "Mosmart" and "Samokhval" are in debt to their suppliers. Since summer suppliers have  brought in 7 action against "Mosmart" - more than 35,5 millions, and 26 action against "Samokhval" - 53,4 millions. Russian State banks give big retail companies the additional loans, but of course they cast doubt on persistent debtors-non-payers and insolvents.

[vwrw]

Retail network "Samokhval" also has started to close their stores. "Mosmart" and "Samokhval" are in debt to their suppliers. Since summer suppliers have  brought in 7 action against "Mosmart" - more than 35,5 millions, and 26 action against "Samokhval" - 53,4 millions. Russian State banks give big retail companies the additional loans, but of course they cast doubt on  debtors and insolvents.

Of course, it is sad that some companies have faced serious difficulties.

What about the news that banks limit withdrawals to P4000 per day? Do you know anything about this?

[OlgaH]

Of course, it is sad that some companies have faced serious difficulties.

Yes, companies have difficulties, now crisis shows survival potential of the companies. "Samokhval" and "Mosmart" have been in constant debt to their suppliers and did not pay them even before crisis, so...   

What about the news that banks limit withdrawals to P4000 per day? Do you know anything about this?

I'm looking for this information.

I found some prognosis about salaries in Moscow. Most likely the Moscow employers will reduce the bonuses and premiums that are make up 30% of Moscovites' salary. Probably they have started to do so... but I could not find any "fresh" news about it... may be later.

[Mishenka]

http://rbth.ru/articles/2008/10/27/271008_unemployment.html

Reading here it seems things are not business as usual.
October 27th ,08
Agitation builds up among the workforce as reports of substantial layoffs are spread by word of mouth.
The lurking ghost of unemployment

All talk of Russia as an island of stability has dried up by now – it is obvious that it is not. Russia’s stock markets have fallen harder than most, and the newspapers are full of stories about bank “consolidation.” Yet despite all this, the mantra repeated by experts and commentators of all stripes is the same: the crisis has not (yet) hit ordinary Russians; big job or wage cuts are still in the future. That may be true, but the wave of redundancies, if it is coming, is preceded by a rising tide of anxiety and rumor.
In late September, the Kommersant daily reported that RBK, Russia’s première media holding which owns a television channel, a newspaper, and a news agency, was cutting 100 jobs - about five percent of its staff. And last week, the Renaissance Group, which includes Renaissance Capital, Russia’s first investment bank and in many ways a flagship for the country’s economic success, laid off 100 staff (about six percent of the total workforce) of its own. Company spokesmen are keen to play down the significance of these layoffs—given the global financial situation, relatively minor cost-cutting at financial institutions is not really news, they say.

And they are right. These relatively small-scale redundancies at high profile organizations are not the whole story. In fact, there is definitely a palpable sense of anxiety outside the financial system. A report from Goldman Sachs released on October 21 notes that “anecdotal reports from companies suggest that the freezing of the banking system caused immediate damage to the real economy in early October: a lack of working capital reportedly caused stoppages at a number of manufacturing facilities, sharp drops in demand for commodities, and the emptying of shelves in certain retail outlets.”

That gloom is deepened by the perception that the job market has also crashed. On Friday, the Head Hunter employment website posted nearly two and a half million resumes and just 75,000 vacancies. That inspires little confidence amongst those facing the axe, said the IT worker. “Lots of the vacancies on these sites have been frozen,” he said sullenly.

Please read on from link.

[daveyj]

During my recent visit to St.Pete's a few weeks ago, I met with a lady who is a university/college lecturer.  The day we met she had just come from a staff meeting where they had been advised of salaries cuts of approx 15% across the board.

[OlgaH]

What about the news that banks limit withdrawals to P4000 per day? Do you know anything about this?

OK. Some (not all) banks have imposed limit withdrawals and sum depends on a bank, but first of all it concerns credit cards, as the banks are concerned about risk of "nonresponse". I could not find any information about withdrawal limits for personal accounts.

[OlgaH]

During my recent visit to St.Pete's a few weeks ago, I met with a lady who is a university/college lecturer.  The day we met she had just come from a staff meeting where they had been advised of salaries cuts of approx 15% across the board.

The mayor of Chelyabinsk made announcement about 30% salary increase for employees of  government-financed organizations from January 1st 2009

http://www.nr2.ru/chel/203143.html

[Mishenka]

It is good to see how Russia is taking swift actions to combat their side of this financial crisis.

Putin has continued to pour billions into RU Banks, why would there be a limit on withdrawals?  To buy up US dollars and the Ruble fall and the dollar is strong.
http://rbth.ru/articles/2008/10/23/231008_rouble.html
The Russian Prime Minister was speaking in an attempt to calm fears over the stability of the currency which has been weakened by the dollar-euro exchange rate's current two year low.
The dollar has recently enjoyed its highest boost for two years. Thousands of Russians are eager to change their money into dollars on the back of rumours that the rouble was about to weaken dramatically against the US currency.
Eugene Fazleev works in asset management and is also an active blogger. Many of his friends have asked him for advice.

“Many letters and blogs that circulated were written in such a way as if to deliberately stir up panic. To me it was a clear sign that nothing of the kind would happen. I tried to tell my friends but still half of them fell for it,” says Eugene.

Initially a publication appeared in the Ukrainian media claiming that within days the rouble will drop two fold in comparison to the US dollar. This was gladly picked up by Georgian media, with all of them referring to reports from Reuters.

http://rbth.ru/articles/2008/09/30/300908_putin.html

September 30th Putin promises 50 Billion for banks-The money will be made available to banks and companies to help them pay foreign loans taken out before Sept. 25 and will be transferred from the country's international reserves to the state-run Development Bank, Deputy Economic Development Minister Andrei Klepach said on Vesti-24 television.

October 7th Putin promises 36 billion more for Banks-The Russian government will inject an additional $US 36 BLN into the country's financial sector to prevent a major crisis.

http://rbth.ru/articles/2008/10/23/231008_slowdown.html   Andrei Bugrov, managing director of Interros and chairman of the board of the power utility OGK-3, was pessimistic, however.
"The outlook for 2009 is grim, full stop, the end to the global financial system as we know it," he said.
Bugrov also said it was obvious the markets were panicking, as certain companies were valued for less than the amount of cash on their balance sheet. The financial system had to be better managed, Bugrov added, as the international volume of $50 trillion in derivatives trading over the past several years far exceeded global GDP.

"Sit tight and save your cash would be a very sound approach at the moment," Bugrov said.

http://rbth.ru/articles/2008/10/07/071008_banks.html

Today's news, Putin said he had ordered an additional 200 billion rubles ($7.6 billion) to be provided to the Deposit Insurance Agency to secure the stable operation of banks. The government has drafted a bill to enable the agency to acquire troubled banks, First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov said after the meeting. The bill was submitted to the State Duma on Monday, he said. The government has pledged to allocate some $200 billion in loans and tax cuts, among other measures, to help banks and companies deal with the country's worst financial turmoil since 1998.

[OlgaH]

http://rbth.ru/articles/2008/10/27/271008_unemployment.html

Reading here it seems things are not business as usual.

The unemployment as a consequence of crisis is inevitable.

David Blanchflower, a labour market expert and member of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee, predicts: "Unemployment will be above 2 million by Christmas. I am particularly worried at the 56,000 rise in the number of young unemployed people. These are school leavers who are unable to get a job or claim benefits, which is why the claimant count has not risen even faster than it has" http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/oct/15/unemploymentdata-recession

[vwrw]

I could not find any information about withdrawal limits for personal accounts.

Olga, thank you for good news.

To calm my mother (who is somewhat nervous, regardless of the fact that everyone of her acquaintances who wanted to withdraw their deposits could receive their savings easily) and to convince her that withdrawal of deposit would be wrong thing to do, I also conducted my search  on the subject of withdrawal’s limitations two days ago. I got the same result as you did.

[IAmZon]

WOW!  That is happening very fast in Russia.

I am in Colombia now, and the dollar is on the rise - up + 20% in just three months.  Cali offers an offering of first world living.  Some things are expensive - cars 30% - 50% more than US. Tennis shoes and electronics too.  Everything else (general living) about HALF.  Luxury real estate perhaps 70% - 80% less.  This place seems to be largely disconnected with the global reality  ... could be that it is just a lazy Latin American city.

[Ade]

Olga, thank you for good news.

To calm my mother (who is somewhat nervous, regardless of the fact that everyone of her acquaintances who wanted to withdraw their deposits could receive their savings easily) and to convince her that withdrawal of deposit would be wrong thing to do, I also conducted my search  on the subject of withdrawal’s limitations two days ago. I got the same result as you did.

My girlfriend tells me that in Arkhangelsk there are no empty shelves and prices remain the same.

However, she has a customer that works for a popular bank that gives out "quick credit" and they have set up some limits on withdrawals until people calm down. She quoted some interesting figures from this bank; between 5.09-22.09 there were withdrawals of about 120 million roubles pre day from the cash machines, but between 30.09-2.11 there were on average 400 million per day.

[Makkin]

Legal,

  I agree with you on the day trade adventures and remember way back in 1998 there were a lot of somewhat good day traders. Then the television had millions of ads and there went the nighborhood and the people's money.
  Those ads set up many people into the dream od making trades on the computer and just after that at about 6-12 months we had our first bumps of interest in the markets and the television ads were stopped.
   If you notice closely and watch the markets you can see that wall street needs millions of on-line day traders to fleece on a sufficient pace.

   My friend who works for AIM as a manager and works with London trades on a daily basis can tell you all you need to know. He cannot make a trade for six months after seeing and doing a trade for a Great Britain company or any others for that matter. He is honest and follows the rules and maybe they know that at AIM and it's why he makes the cash he does.
   His biggest complaint is the hedge fund managers as they drop class "C" crap on the regular working people and in effect"pump and dump". Many college funds are never looked at by parents and they were losing money before all these problems happened due to the negative growth investments set up by the friendly hedge fund manager.

   People need to invest on the terms they can completely understand and if they don't understand then they will most likely take a hit. I have recently change three college funds for three women and they all showed negative growth to date. The company wont tell you so I did after review and helped. My fee was minimal at ZERO but I am glad to help. Just amazes me that all three of these women with young children are all advanced degree and in the medical field but feel no nood to study economics.  MIR seems to study everything and I give him two thumbs up all the way.

Makkin

[groovlstk]

Makkin,

Awhile back you mentioned that you had a fiancee in Ukraine. I hope things worked out for you and I doubly hope you were able to get her out of there. Things seem to be going from bad to worse. For those of us with family in Ukraine and Russia, the next year is going to be interesting. 

[Makkin]

Groov,

  Thanks for the kind words but sadly things did not work out. I don't want to cry about it here but I did what I could and the best things in my life will come later if intended.

  Sorry about your family and all Ukrainians and Russians. I hope each and everyone keeps up the fight and comes out much better in the near future.

Thanks Groov,

Makkin

[Makkin]

Poker,

  You are correct in saying that day traders could not cause a recession but what actually is being caused on a larger scale in the same manner and effects as day traders?

  When stock jockies line up in wall Street what do they do all day? Day trade right? But who are they trading with and at what volume?

  1.5 billion shares traded and that's nothing these days. The more volume is what you want.

  I am saying that when the day traders became a part of the trading in general that's when the shite started and has continued at a much larger scale than just day traders due to the quick and easy methods of the internet. It's like online poker now and there are a bunch of people still making a ton of money and into the billions my friend.

  If you could loan me a server system for say 500,000 worth of hardware I could get it set up in your name as "Poker" and we could sit back and make millions my friend as long as we do it in the Caymen Islands or some other British friendly place..lol

Makkin

[kievstar]

People like to twist words on this board.  I said day trading is a part not #1 cause of USA recession.  Remember Wall street is the day traders I am talking about.  Not the stay at home dads.