Protesters in Ukraine remind us of the priceless benefits of being EU members

[Larry1]

This is from the Financial Times.  It contains interesting speculation as to whether the Ukrainian army will fire on the opposition:

Fears grow that Ukraine’s military could be called into the fray

As Ukraine slid deeper into violence on Thursday fears grew that the army could soon be called into the fray in a development that observers warned could have devastating repercussions for the nation. People close to Ukraine’s opposition leaders expressed concern that president Viktor Yanukovich, his options dwindling, was preparing to unleash the army to crush the protests against him – possibly within hours.

They also accused Ukrainian authorities of provoking Thursday’s violence, with snipers firing at protesters on Kiev’s central square, as a pretext for a decisive clampdown. Mr Yanukovich’s website pointed the blame at protesters.

“If there is a decision to use force to clear the protesters, it can be done but will start a civil war,” said Ihor Smeshko, former head of Ukraine’s SBU security services. “The army is so far neutral, but if it is pulled into this conflict it will be a point of no return. Army personnel are themselves split 50/50 in their views of Ukraine.”

The government prepared the way for using the army on Wednesday, when the defence ministry said the military could be deployed in “antiterrorist” operations. Authorities and legal experts had previously said the army could only be used within Ukraine if a state of emergency was imposed. Mr Yanukovich on Wednesday night also replaced the head of all Ukraine’s armed forces with the former navy chief – just weeks after he already replaced the head of the army – in what appeared to be a move to ensure loyalty in the top ranks.

In Washington, those moves generated particular alarm. “We urge the Ukrainian military not to get involved in a conflict that can and should be resolved by political means,” said Jay Carney, a White House spokesman. A state department official noted efforts were under way to lobby Ukraine’s top brass. “In the past, we have been able to make direct contact with senior military and intelligence officials in the Ukrainian government,” the official said. “It is worrying to us that has been difficult over the last 24 hours.”

The fact the Ukrainian authorities were contemplating using the military emphasised Mr Yanukovich’s relative shortage of resources for crushing the protests. It also raised questions about how much of the army, despite the leadership changes, would obey orders to use force against their own people.
“[The Yanukovich government] have put their placemen into the army,” said James Sherr, a Ukraine scholar at London’s Chatham House think-tank. “But still the question is what proportion of units would obey such orders?”

The government would normally rely on so-called Berkut special police and, if necessary, interior ministry troops to deal with domestic disturbances. Valentyn Badrak, director of the Kiev-based Centre for Army Conversion and Disarmament Studies, said the Berkut were well-trained and comparatively well-paid by Ukrainian standards, earning at least 6,000 hryvnia ($750) a month. But experts said that despite efforts to reinforce them in recent weeks, the Berkut probably still numbered fewer than 5,000.

The interior ministry is said to have about 15,000 to 20,000 trained troops. But Chatham House’s Mr Sherr said Ukrainian officials had told him privately that as few as 700 were “fit for purpose” to deal directly with entrenched protesters. The army could provide extra numbers, weapons and equipment. The government, however, has treated the army as much less of a priority in recent years than law enforcement, Mr Badrak said. Soldiers were also poorly paid, with even brigade commanders earning only about Hr3,500-4,000 per month – less than Berkut police.

“The core of the army does not support Yanukovich and will not execute an order” to use arms against ordinary people, Mr Badrak said. “This will be an illegal order and will mean for the army that it is being pulled into illegal action.”

Ukraine’s armed forces have had extensive contacts with Nato troops in recent years, as a member of Nato’s Partnership for Peace programme, with officers receiving Nato training. “Don’t underestimate the strength of the army’s own professional ethos, part of which is that they don’t get engaged in this type of action” against ordinary citizens, said Mr Sherr. “Their training, the respect of the officers for the constitution, and 20 years of close working with Nato countries, that affects the whole mentality.”

The military refrained from a crackdown against Ukraine’s Orange Revolution in 2004, although the situation several times came close. Ukraine’s then president Leonid Kuchma ultimately refused to bow to pressure to use force from Russia’s president Vladimir Putin – deterred in part by public threats of resignations of top security officials. One of those, Mr Smeshko, has warned that Mr Yanukovich, who is under similar pressure today from Mr Putin, may feel no such constraints.

But Mr Smeshko, a former military intelligence general, said he found it “hard to imagine how the army will execute orders to go against its own people”.
 

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/915df8b8-9a44-11e3-a407-00144feab7de.html#axzz2tuLmUBPp

[SteveOR]

 
An interesting blog from Nina Khrushcheva who is the granddaughter of Nikita Khrushchev:
 
"Ukraine has had two weeks to find a compromise in its Russia versus the West dispute. Russian President Vladimir Putin has been focused on promoting his soft image with the Winter Olympics in Sochi. With the games ending Sunday, however, time has run out and the crisis in Kiev and other cities is only getting worse.
 
If Putin uses Russian history as a guide, it would not be out of the question that Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine. After all, Soviet leaders did just this to retain control during the Hungarian uprising in 1956 and the 1968 Prague spring in Czechoslovakia.
 
For Putin stands to lose influence and his ability to affect policy in Ukraine if the opposition gains control. This is at the core of the current Ukraine crisis.
 
Ukrainian President Victor Yanukovich disregarded a much-anticipated association agreement with the European Union in November to sign a $15 billion bailout deal with Russia. It was this Kremlin-influenced act that sparked the protests — first peaceful but now increasingly violent. Ukraine now appears divided into an eastern part that supports Yanukovich and the Russian deal, and the Europe-prone western half.
 
So the real question may well be: What does Russia want?
 
Looking to history, Moscow wants what it has always wanted — Ukraine, translated as the Edge (of Russia) and also known as Malorossiya or Small Russia. Not that it’s small, occupying central European lands of about 230 square miles — larger than California but not as big as Texas.
The Harvard historian Richard Pipes long claimed that Russia won’t amount to much without its Ukrainian neighbor. When threatened with Ukraine’s effort at independence, Russia hasn’t hesitated to suppress it. Modern Russia, after all, derived from Kievan Russia in 880. The Ukrainians have contested their supremacy and independence ever since.
 
In the 1930s Joseph Stalin tried to suppress the republic through collectivization. He collectivized all Soviet land and farming, but Ukraine’s collectivization was particularly drastic. For it was also an attack on Ukrainian nationalism. Farmers were forced to give their private lands and all crops to the state. The result was Holodomor — the Great Famine of the early 1930s, which claimed many millions of lives. At the start of Holodomor, in January, 1932, Ukraine’s population was 32.7 million. By 1937 it was slightly more than 28 million.
 
Stalin then sent the first secretary of Ukraine’s Communist Party, Nikita Khrushchev (full disclosure: my grandfather), to revitalize the region’s agriculture. The region’s vast wheat fields had long served as the breadbasket of the Russian empire and then the Soviet Union.
 
Khrushchev, though Russian, had strong personal ties to Ukraine, dating back to his days as a miner in Donbas during the 1910s. His wife, Nina, was an ethnic Western Ukrainian. And he often wore brightly embroidered Ukrainian folk shirts.. But even as he helped to rebuild the land, Khrushchev brought in the communist agenda of curtailing  the Ukrainian national heritage, especially in culture and arts. He was still mindful, for example, that literary works should be Soviet first and Ukrainian second. This continued after he became the Soviet head of state.
 
Leonid Brezhnev, Khrushchev’s successor in 1964, came from Ukraine, yet he also demanded the primacy of Russia within the Soviet Union. The two following leaders, Konstantin Chernenko and Mikhail Gorbachev, although both born in Russia, also had Ukrainian roots. But the power of Russia still held.
 
This finally changed when the Soviet Union collapsed in the 1990s. Small Russia was no longer seen as small — or even Russia for that matter. Boris Yeltsin’s government eased its claims on Ukraine and other former Soviet republics.
 
Since Putin came to power in 2000, however, he has increasingly acted in the traditions of a Big Brother. In 2004 he tried to influence Ukrainian politics through a then-unsuccessful installment of Yanukovich. He was more successful at manipulating the new nation’s oil and gas prices though.
 
Putin’s interests in Ukraine may be similar to those of his Soviet predecessors — its size, skilled population of 45 million, and wheat fields are all enticing.
 
But it may also be that Ukraine has been under the Russian sphere of influence for a millennium. Putin, prone to the imperial inclinations, undoubtedly wants to continue this trend. He has supported the pro-Russian government in many ways.
 
Still in the Sochi soft power mode, the Kremlin is now saying it will not intervene in Ukraine. But the escalating violence in Kiev may force its hand. Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that his boss “believes that the ongoing situation in Ukraine is the fault of the extremists and their actions can be treated and are treated in Moscow solely as an attempt at a state coup.”
 
For a KGB man, as Putin once was, words like “extremists” and “state coup” have often served as indicators of future actions. Harsh reprisals often follow these kind of warnings.
 
To free itself from Russia’s control, Ukraine’s only option may be for Yanukovich to resign. Then the Russian president may back off — since he won’t have a state ally to defend.
 
Even if Yanukovich resigns, however, Putin may still share in that sinister KGB skill to come out on top. Ukraine’s split may likely be assisted by Moscow, which is eager for its eastern territory — just as Abkhazia and South Ossetia were absorbed during the 2008 war with Georgia.
 
History would come full circle: Ukraine, even if in part, will again be under the Kremlin’s control, expanding the new Russian empire.
 
http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2014/02/20/playing-the-ukrainian-card/
 
 

[Slumba]

It does not matter how bad the government is civil war is much worse.

At what point, is violence against the government, acceptable?

Maybe a civil war can be averted, it is my hope anyways.

[Chelseaboy]

SteveOR,

             My source for the news about unrest in eastern Ukraine is the BBC news over here.

[SteveOR]

SteveOR,

             My source for the news about unrest in eastern Ukraine is the BBC news over here.

This looks like it might be it:
 
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26277378
 
It doesn't look like the protestors got very far in Poltava or Kharkiv but I thought this was interesting out of Romny:
 
"The wives and family of policemen in Romny, northern Sumy Region, reportedly blocked the main road to try to prevent police from leaving their units on Thursday."
 
It looks like the BBC has added a lot to their Ukraine coverage.  Thanks for the tip Chelseaboy. . .
 
 

[JayH]

Looking at situation currently--- I think the government is on it's last legs now. At some point very soon--the police,Berkut,officials and the government themselves will go into self preservation mode and seek to save their own backsides. The sooner the better for everyone.


For those who have commented in the negative towards protesters here-- you are out of touch with reality-- your source is out of touch. I feel like ripping into you and them-but right now it is important for the Ukraine people to conciliate towards a new and better future. The deaths and pain of this stand taken by the people of Ukraine should not be underestimated .
  I also recognise that many people in Ukraine do not understand much or most of what is taking place-hence comments in this thread by some--I urge you all to re-think the attitudes expressed and support a free Ukraine that can have a future as part of the world.

[JohnDearGreen]

Death toll roster.  Many from outside of Kyiv.
http://www.mk.ru/incident/news/2014/02/20/988223-obnarodovan-spisok-pogibshih-na-maydane.html


Event log from Moscow news site:
http://www.mk.ru/politics/sng/article/2014/02/19/987070-ukraina-v-ogne-i-obeschaniyah-kiev-perekryit-berkut-nastupaet-na-maydan-v-regionah-prodolzhaetsya-zahvat-vlasti-onlayntranslyatsiya.html


Klitschko promises Berkut freedom if they will go "on the side of the people.". http://www.mk.ru/politics/sng/article/2014/02/20/988070-quotberkutquot-brosaet-yanukovicha-boytsyi-sdayutsya-v-plen-oppozitsioneram.html

[SteveOR]

Looking at situation currently--- I think the government is on it's last legs now. At some point very soon--the police,Berkut,officials and the government themselves will go into self preservation mode and seek to save their own backsides. The sooner the better for everyone.

Here's a picture that may help prove your point.  That's Klitschko talking with police today.  Take a close look at the men's faces.  They are paying close attention to what he is saying, even those in the background.  I can see the worry.  They're looking for a clue as to what their future holds.
 

Credit: REUTERS/Andrii Skakodub/Pool
 

[Faux Pas]

Faux Pas, may I You?

Today Ukraine marks a day of mourning 
http://24tv.ua/home/showNews.do?euromaidan&tagId=3882&startRow=15&lang=en

Yes ghost you certainly may. There are many who feel for all of you and what you're having to go through. And, I'll give you a tight solidarity hug back. My wife and I have a number of very good friends living here who are Ukrainian. They are very emotional over it and we all are devastated by the events. Obviously, by some of the posting here, ignorance knows no bounds
 

[calmissile]

At what point, is violence against the government, acceptable? Maybe a civil war can be averted, it is my hope anyways.

That is easy to answer...... Whatever it takes to gain and maintain freedom from tyranny.  Of course there are many cowards that would prefer for someone else to shed their blood and then take advantage of the freedom afterwards!

The Ukraine people have had enough of Soviet type rule and the spark that created this conflict was all it took for a revolution to begin.  Lets hope that they complete what they started and build a new democratic government without the corruption and repression that they have had to live with in recent years.

The resolve and determination of the Ukraine people in this revolution amazes me.  It is interesting to note that several cabinet members and parliament members of the Party of Regions have resigned from their positions and the party after seeing that they may well be held accountable in future tribunals.

There is a lot of information that is not published that affects the lives of Ukrainians everyday.  The media tends to cover Maiden and the physical altercations.  Unfortunately, there is little coverage of what is happening in the neighborhoods that are not in Kiev city center.

The militia and local cops are patrolling neighborhoods and picking up innocent people that are minding their own business.  The government hired thugs have been also patrolling and shooting and killing innocent citizens in order to create fear and chaos.  The objective of the government is to try and justify martial law and complete rule over the citizenry.

ATM's are not working for a few days.  Merchants cannot or will not accept credit or debit cards.  You can only get a few dollars (grivna) out of your account at the bank.  People that did not take their money out of the bank earlier have no cash to purchase food or gasoline.  As of this morning the lines as grocery stores and gas stations are backed up a mile.  All pharmacies seem to be closed, although she somehow found one to buy medication for ailing mama.

This morning, my wife reported that the shelves in the grocery store had only red caviar and expensive alcohol left on them.  There is no bread on the shelves and there was no flour for sale to make bread at home.

There is no public transportation.  If you risk driving your car, you might have it destroyed by thugs or towed off by the cops.  She had the two outside mirrors ripped off while she was parked  at the courthouse to pick up papers.  The next day, her car was towed off while she was delivering documents to another government agency.  It is not the 'protesters' doing these things.  It is thugs and the police.

The driveway to her apartment was blocked by the militia last night and some cops parked in the parking lot most of the night watching the apartment and neighborhood.  Also, the militia drove around town and her neighborhood at high rates of speed with sirens blazing.  Airplanes and helicopters circled the town most of the night.  Imagine trying to get some sleep in that environment!  It is like the KGB taking over.

The government (cops) have already been selectively towing, destroying, and burning cars.  Cars with license plates that are not Kiev registered are likely to be impounded or destroyed.  Two blocks from the apartment a car with foreign plates was burned out during the night. 

There is a lot going on that is not being reported.  No doubt it does not have the same human interest as the physical battles also going on.  They mayhem to residents is not being done by the 'protesters'.  As I understand it, it is mostly government police forces and the hired thugs they use to do their 'dirty work'.

[BillyB]

That does not give the protesters the right to violence or destruction.

Keep in mind, the protestors started off peacefully but the government and police started to get tough and harass the citizens. Calmissile's wife almost had her car impounded at a check point is one example.


Yanukovych played the citizens and the world for fools when he led them to believe he was going to move towards Europe only to make a deal with Russia at the last minute. He knew all a long he was going to make a deal with Russia but he waited till the last minute so the citizens would remain calm longer.


I don't see the protestors who destroy things and are violent as evil as you do. There's simply a struggle for power going on in Ukraine and war happens when diplomacy breaks down. If a few hundred people wanted to fight the government, I'd agree with your position but half of Ukraine feels life, under their current government, sucks so bad that they're willing to fight and die for change.


You mentioned the citizens elected Yanukovych. You think that was a fair election? He did lose the election after the Orange revolution when UN monitors were counting the ballots. Even if he did win all his elections fairly, what does he have to fear if he holds new elections now? He's insecure. Also, Yanukovych feels he's more important than his citizens lives and a nation. All the problems you're seeing would go away if just one man stepped down. ONE man. The people may not be entirely happy with the replacement government but they wouldn't be rioting either.

[JayH]

Yes ghost you certainly may. There are many who feel for all of you and what you're having to go through. And, I'll give you a tight solidarity hug back. My wife and I have a number of very good friends living here who are Ukrainian. They are very emotional over it and we all are devastated by the events. Obviously, by some of the posting here, ignorance knows no bounds
 

I have a number of friends in Ukraine--from quite diverse backgrounds-- in every case this is an extremely emotional time  and devastated is a good description.This is a real time tragedy unfolding.
I have no interest in arguing petty political points at this time-- I simply ask those posters to read some of the links--watch the footage--then think about it-then think before posting.

[Faux Pas]

A government, any government killing 35+ of it's citizens in protest is not a legitimate government. To mention that they are killing them with sniper fire only exacerbates the situation.

More proof to you Americans watching this thing unfold, NEVER give up your guns. These situations are why we have a second amendment

[JayH]

President Y family have left Ukraine  --mmmm.

[calmissile]

A government, any government killing 35+ of it's citizens in protest is not a legitimate government. To mention that they are killing them with sniper fire only exacerbates the situation.

More proof to you Americans watching this thing unfold, NEVER give up your guns. These situations are why we have a second amendment

+1000

[jone]

For those that do not know me, I am pre-disposed, after watching, first hand, the corruption native to this wonderful country, to support reform of the current governmental structures and of the business practices in Ukraine.  It is unfathomable how a country can succeed with the the amount of graft taken from every business transaction.  Such maintains the population at an incredibly low standard of living.

Having said that, I would like to report on some of my friends who do not support the opposition and live in the Russian section of Ukraine and their disposition and theories:

1.  It should be pointed out that most of the older generation lived under Soviet Rule.  At the time of the Soviet Union, and even through the early eighties, even though times were tough, this country was part of a superpower. 

2.  The idea of rebelling against the current government, regardless of how corrupt it is, did not enter into most of these people's minds.

3.  There is a strong anti-West disposition among many of the Russian heritage Ukrainians.  This is fostered by the idea that the Opposition element is funded by the CIA.  Moreover, it is constantly being reported on the Government fed Russian heritage based news that such is the case.

4.  Since 1991, and the breakup of the Soviet Union, Ukraine has not enjoyed ANY stable period of growth.  The federal government is rife with vote rigging, poisoning of candidates, arresting others.  While it can certainly be argued that those in power abuse it to personal gain, not the ethnic Ukrainians or the Ethnic Russians can claim any moral high ground.  Instead both are guilty.  Should the Opposition force out Yanukovych, there is no previous history that suggests a more stable government will evolve from the ashes.  (How long did the Orange Revolution really last?)

5.  Finally there are social tensions that are still inherent to the landscape of Ukraine.  Ethnic Ukrainians live  in the Western third of Ukraine.  Russian heritage Ukrainians live in the East and South.  And in the middle, right on the Dnieper River live a mixture of the two.  It is natural to assume that those assaulting Yanukovych, for any reason, would be looked at as subversive by ethnic Russians.

For the above reasons, many of my Eastern Ukrainian and Southern Ukrainian friends do NOT support the Opposition.  I understand their reasoning.  I don't support it, but I understand it.

[Anotherkiwi]

A government, any government killing 35+ of it's citizens in protest is not a legitimate government. To mention that they are killing them with sniper fire only exacerbates the situation.

True.

More proof to you Americans watching this thing unfold, NEVER give up your guns. These situations are why we have a second amendment.

Here we go again!  What on earth has the situation in Ukraine got to do with the USA?  Faux Pas, your Government will never, EVER be in the same situation as that in Ukraine.

[JayH]

   
REVOLYUTSІYA | ЄVROMAYDAN | right quadrant
Today at 10:18 am
It's unbelievable how enchanting lies poured into the heads of people in our country on television. From the beginning I have been closely following the developments in Ukraine with a variety of sources, always see the video posted at the moment events. And now both funny and sad to watch the same video, but artfully cut and mounted in NTV, with arched a good portion of one-sided comments. This is so shameless and obvious nonsense that's frightening to imagine how a huge number of compatriots watching TV and heed the words of the leading . And most importantly - why? Why Russian citizens such propaganda? Cultivating hatred of popular uprisings and as a consequence, the subconscious rejection of the thought itself, that power can be influenced? Great job, Uncle Vova! Ukrainians, brothers, you know, despite all such propaganda pouring from all sides, among the Russians a huge amount of people who believe in you, support you. Even with your hand pours anti-Russian propaganda, smart people know how it filtrovat.Udachi you and success in the fight for freedom!

[Russian_Bear]

21  year-old girl medic shot and killed by police sniper today..as the snipers target the medics trying to treat wounded and dying protesters ...just been reported on Sky News by Sky reporters at the scene in Kiev.

Nice guys these "young men,husband and father" Police eh ?

Stop being so stupid and blind!! Believe me, no sniper shots and kills any girl medic specially. It is so silly and even stupid thought. Could you post here a link where I could read about this murder? If it happened, all TV-channels and Radio ones would cry ( shout ) about it. I live here and I have not heard or seen about it!
 

[pokerintherear]

Jone, did Yanukovych platform (Party of Regions) for his election include promises to start relations with the EU? You seem to know a little about the man. Dis he contradict his promise to the people?

[ghost of moon goddess]

21  year-old girl medic shot and killed by police sniper today..as the snipers target the medics trying to treat wounded and dying protesters ...just been reported on Sky News by Sky reporters at the scene in Kiev.

She was shot in the neck and feared dead - false reports of her death had spread rapidly over twitter after she twitted 'I'm dying'. Fortunately, doctors were able to save her life.

http://v-n-zb.livejournal.com/6711773.html

[Misha]

Stop being so stupid and blind!! Believe me, no sniper shots and kills any girl medic specially. It is so silly and even stupid thought. Could you post here a link where I could read about this murder? If it happened, all TV-channels and Radio ones would cry ( shout ) about it. I live here and I have not heard or seen about it!

Scroll to the end. She is not dead, but was shot in the neck and is on life support: [size=78%]http://vesti.ua/strana/38691-vse-pogibshie-na-majdane-stali-zhertvami-snajperov[/size]

[BillyB]

Stop being so stupid and blind!! Believe me, no sniper shots and kills any girl medic specially. It is so silly and even stupid thought. Could you post here a link where I could read about this murder? If it happened, all TV-channels and Radio ones would cry ( shout ) about it. I live here and I have not heard or seen about it!

I don't know where you live but I have an in law over there that works for a tv station in Kiev and the government shut them down. He's been out of a job since this crisis got violent. It's hard for those guys to report anything when they're not allowed to work. Your president wants to keep the citizens blind to what's going on.


I don't think Yanukovych is as bad as Hitler or Stalin but I wouldn't put it past him to engage in the same tactics to shut down the citizens he doesn't don't like. Execution by sniper, for example. Russian Bear, I hope you open your eyes to what Yanukovych is capable of. It's okay to like his politics but you don't have to like the man.

President Y family have left Ukraine  --mmmm.

You see. Proof that he does care about some citizens.

[BillyB]

She was shot in the neck and feared dead - false reports of her death had spread rapidly over twitter after she twitted 'I'm dying'. Fortunately, doctors were able to save her life.

http://v-n-zb.livejournal.com/6711773.html

Some false reports will happen. Some true incidences will never be told. I watched a video earlier, in this thread, of a sniper shooting citizens and then shooting citizens that we're rendering medical attention to those shot. Regardless if the medic survived her shot in the neck, it's apparent the snipers intent was to kill.

[CDW]

Before / After