Ukrainian Air Defense Exercises Might be Behind Malaysian Aircraft Crash

[fathertime]

In the present situation, I believe that Ukraine's actions are appropriate.  Here's why:

1.  In the aftermath of MH17, Russia has to either escalate or de-escalate.  A unified Europe (and now I mean all of Europe, not just the EU) is aghast at the idea of arming a bunch of insurgents with BUK missile systems.   In spite of all of the conspiracy theories that abound, the uniform point of view by (almost) all governmental bodies is that the plane was shot down by Russian Separatists operating in Ukraine.

Accordingly, if de-escalation occurs (not likely) the Ukrainians mop up the remainder of the insurgents and get on with their Western style government implementation.

2.  If Russia escalates (as appears to be happening) it forces Russia's hand.  Russia either has to, eventually, be "All In" or eventually takes it on the chin.  After all, Ukrainian forces are forcing the Donbas fighters into a circle of about 20 miles now.   Each day that circle gets smaller and the ability to re-supply become more problematic.  With the world watching, this is no longer Chechnya or Georgia.   Russia is being laid bare as an aggressor nation.  It becomes an outcast and Europe begins the process of looking elsewhere for Natural Gas (can you say 'Fracking'?)

3.  There is a peace plan that (apparently) was floated by Germany which leaves Crimea intact (with German recognition) for Russian removal of all forces from Eastern Ukraine.  No membership in NATO, yahdeyahdeyah.   This is NOT what Putin wants, even though you have stated that this is a win/win for both countries.  Putin only wins if Ukraine is destabilized.  Otherwise he would have left well enough alone after slipping the Mickey to those Crimeans.  Having Ukraine still fighting, possibly opens the door for such a plan (although the possibilty is remote).

4.  The Ukrainian military, with a gun to their head, have demonstrated a reasonable ability to fight.  Not against the Russian regulars, mind you, but against all of the equipment and some 'advisors' who have come across the border.

5.  In a nationwide poll of Russians, the great majority are in favor of the Annexation of Krim, and the Nationalistic Spirit that has swept the country.  However, by only a slight majority (52%) do they believe that Russia should declare war on Ukraine.  And that is after months of the constant characterization of the Fascists and Baby Killers of Kyiv.  Frankly, the Russians don't want to see their children coming home in body bags.  Given that a war with Ukraine will certainly be fought with substantial casualties, it would be hard to believe that the government could possibly hide such casualties from the public. 

If Doll is to be believed (and her sentiments are not far from my many friends that I still have in Russia) then there is no great support for a war.  If people are believing what is coming out of formerly occupied cities, then the people fighting on behalf of LPR and DPR are nothing other than professional soldiers and or malcontents. 

I would like to believe that Russia is doing, exactly as Putin has had it do in many other situations, as much as it can to destabilize the region (and the country of Ukraine) but is unwilling to make the next step.  But I would not be willing to bet the farm on that.  Should Russia come across with everything they have (and that is exactly what they would to to mitigate losses) then there would be an immediate response from Europe and the US.  I am quite sure that such was discussed in the phone call, yesterday, between Obama and Putin.

A third party like Germany might be able to broker a deal that makes sense for both sides....


At least you took a position, and explained the reasoning.... unlike Botheius and Muzh...  If you want I could put up your last quote boethius about it being a 'moot point' so why give the opinion


Fathertime!   

[Misha]

4.  The Ukrainian military, with a gun to their head, have demonstrated a reasonable ability to fight.  Not against the Russian regulars, mind you, but against all of the equipment and some 'advisors' who have come across the border.

Who are there Russian "regulars"? The young fellow recruited less than a year ago. If anything, by being able to hold its own against the mercenaries and special ops that Russia has sent deep into Ukrainian territory, including soldiers who fought in several wars both inside and outside Russia, Ukraine is demonstrating that it would be a more than capable fighting force against the Russian "regulars."

[fathertime]

Obviously the Russian's think federalization would be better than losing influence in all of Ukraine.  Interesting, one of the links actually says it may be better to let the regions go rather than having a federation.  If Ukraine doesn't negotiate that might be the way it goes.  It is obviously Ukraine's choice...at least for the moment.  I've mentioned I think that Ukraine should negotiate and accept a federation which is being criticized....so what do you think Ukraine should do? It would seem you and those that have been critical all would prefer Ukraine to fight....is that right? 


Fathertime!

Why would I take a position that is likely not to occur?  Should I also speculate on how many angels dance on the head of a pin?If Russia invades, I will have a position at that time.  As it stands, Ukraine will retake the territory.

That is taking a position?   


Fathertime!   

[LiveFromUkraine]

I was just curious what you thought.  Thank you, very much, for sharing.

I apologize then since it looked like you were saying I support Putin's actions in Ukraine which I don't.


I don't think Ukraine has any choice but to continue trying to bring back some semblance of law in those regions.  Now, I don't think they should be bombing areas from planes because there are too many civilians being caught up in the crossfire.


What can they do if Russia decides to fully invade?  Not much besides trying to defend themselves.  I don't think a full on invasion will happen, though.  Destabilizing efforts, yeah, I tend to think it will continue to happen until a scenario appears where Putin can save face and keep his popularity. 


In my opinion, that is the key to getting this mess over with.  The more Putin is called out the longer this will go on.

[jone]

Misha,

Don't disagree with you.  The Ukrainians are now somewhat battle hardened.   But the sheer numbers of recruits that will be required to fight a war against Russia, and the total lack of war-making equipment, leaves me to believe that Ukraine would be overwhelmed very quickly.  My guess would be two months!

That pre-supposes that the West doesn't re-supply or join the conflagration.  (Which I do not support.)

Did everyone see that Lukashenko has re-positioned much of his military hardware in Gomel?

[fathertime]

What can they do if Russia decides to fully invade?  Not much besides trying to defend themselves.  I don't think a full on invasion will happen, though.  Destabilizing efforts, yeah, I tend to think it will continue to happen until a scenario happens where Putin can save face and keep his popularity.  In my opinion, that is the key to getting this mess over with.

That is a good alternative to Russia reluctantly deciding they have to invade Ukraine.  If a third party can offer a very tasty carrot or two MAYBE a disaster can be averted....

I would like to believe that Russia is doing, exactly as Putin has had it do in many other situations, as much as it can to destabilize the region (and the country of Ukraine) but is unwilling to make the next step.  But I would not be willing to bet the farm on that.  Should Russia come across with everything they have (and that is exactly what they would to to mitigate losses) then there would be an immediate response from Europe and the US.  I am quite sure that such was discussed in the phone call, yesterday, between Obama and Putin.

 
And what would that response in your estimation be? I don't think Russia wants to invade, or they would have done it....but if they do, I imagine it would be a horrid disaster for both sides....I don't see threats stopping Russia though...that is why I think a negotiated Federation isn't a bad option..if it can be conducted in a reasonably fair way...maybe a third party can facilitate this....or maybe it isn't possible at all.


Fathertime! 
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[jone]

I apologize then since it looked like you were saying I support Putin's actions in Ukraine which I don't.


I don't think Ukraine has any choice but to continue trying to bring back some semblance of law in those regions.  Now, I don't think they should be bombing areas from planes because they are too many civilians being caught up in the crossfire.


What can they do if Russia decides to fully invade?  Not much besides trying to defend themselves.  I don't think a full on invasion will happen, though.  Destabilizing efforts, yeah, I tend to think it will continue to happen until a scenario appears where Putin can save face and keep his popularity. 


In my opinion, that is the key to getting this mess over with.  The more Putin is called out the longer this will go on.

LFU,

You've hit the nail on the head.  If the West can come out with a scenario that Putin can save some face, then he will take the escape hatch.  Unfortunately, the West is very adroit at painting him in a corner. 

Perfect example:  The MH17 shootdown would be a perfect opportunity to separate himself from the separatists.  But the Western Media has pushed and pushed Russia into saying such outlandish things that for Russia to now say:  'We recognize that the Airliner was shot down by combatants supposedly acting on behalf of the DPR and LGR.  But such egregious behavior is unacceptable to support."   will never happen. 

That was, by far, the best opportunity to disengage.  I believe that the West over reacted and left Russia no room for escape.

[Misha]

Misha,

Don't disagree with you.  The Ukrainians are now somewhat battle hardened.   But the sheer numbers of recruits that will be required to fight a war against Russia, and the total lack of war-making equipment, leaves me to believe that Ukraine would be overwhelmed very quickly.  My guess would be two months!

That pre-supposes that the West doesn't re-supply or join the conflagration.  (Which I do not support.)

Did everyone see that Lukashenko has re-positioned much of his military hardware in Gomel?

Perhaps, but if Ukraine does put up any kind of real fight, the body bags being shipped back home will pile up quickly, including the recruits from those regions that are already showing signs of unrest in Russia: a movement is underway to reorganize the Russian confederation and effectively create a large "Siberia" district that would have a much greater say in the politics and economics of the country. Then, there will be the cost of invading Ukraine from an economic perspective: they will have to keep troops there indefinitely, the outward flow of capital from Russia will become a tidal wave, and hey if you invade and occupy a country, you can forget about charging them for natural gas and we won't even begin talking about partisans and guerrilla warfare...

[jone]

Misha,

Those are some very interesting thoughts.  Back when this all started, Merkel said that Putin was not in his right mind.  She has excellent perception.  Ultimately we all knew we'd be here sometime.

[jone]

I have really had trouble putting my thoughts together on what exactly Putin needs to come out with to disengage.  I am very scared to think that he has to 'win at all costs'.  Somewhere there has to be the politician and not the KGB dictator.

[LiveFromUkraine]

LFU,

You've hit the nail on the head.  If the West can come out with a scenario that Putin can save some face, then he will take the escape hatch.  Unfortunately, the West is very adroit at painting him in a corner. 

Perfect example:  The MH17 shootdown would be a perfect opportunity to separate himself from the separatists.  But the Western Media has pushed and pushed Russia into saying such outlandish things that for Russia to now say:  'We recognize that the Airliner was shot down by combatants supposedly acting on behalf of the DPR and LGR.  But such egregious behavior is unacceptable to support."   will never happen. 

That was, by far, the best opportunity to disengage.  I believe that the West over reacted and left Russia no room for escape.

See,  jone, that is the problem from where I sit.  I think the US cares more about making Russia look bad internationally than saving Ukraine.   


The less clout Russia has internationally the better for the US.


Look at the BRICS monetary fund as an example.  Russia, along with the other BRICS countries have made it no secret they would rather replace doing business, in US dollars, with their own currencies.  The more that happens the worst off the US would be.  We would be royally screwed without our currency being the "world" reserve currency. 

[fathertime]

See,  jone, that is the problem from where I sit. I think the US cares more about making Russia look bad internationally than saving Ukraine.   


The less clout Russia has internationally the better for the US.

MAN LFU, you are hitting it outta the park today....I've felt this way from the very start and said so here when this began.  The USA HAS exacerbated the problem, and I think it has been intentional...I really do. 


Fathertime!   

[LiveFromUkraine]

MAN LFU, you are hitting it outta the park today....I've felt this way from the very start and said so here when this began.  The USA HAS exacerbated the problem, and I think it has been intentional...I really do. 


Fathertime!

I agree.  This isn't anything new, all we have to do is look at how the US baited Russia into the afghan war by funding Mugahadeen.

[jone]

Heaven forbid,

Something that we can all agree upon.  Although I do not think we should give the US that much credit.  Our foreign policy has been for sh..t these past years.   What has forced the US into such as stance is that Putin has emerged as a major player on the World Stage.

As for Maidan, I don't think we were either that smart or that involved.  It seemed to me a situation that the US just took advantage of the situation, ipso facto. 

Russia, as well, kinda stumbled into this.  My belief is that Crimea was laid on in a couple of days. 

Think back, though.  The one thing that did seem engineered is that this whole thing came to a head during the Olympics.

[Misha]

I have really had trouble putting my thoughts together on what exactly Putin needs to come out with to disengage.  I am very scared to think that he has to 'win at all costs'.  Somewhere there has to be the politician and not the KGB dictator.

The danger, as I see it, is the "Emperor has no clothes" syndrome. Does Putin really have any real contact with the outside world? He is not an internet person, he does not go outside ever alone without security. He probably hasn't gone out unescorted since at least 1997 or 1998 at the latest. Russian television is certainly not providing him an even somewhat objective view of the world,... At what point does a leader begin to believe the propaganda, at what point is reality shaped by a small cadre who tell the leader what he wants to hear...

[JohnDearGreen]

I'll tell you what I can't figure:
There are a tremendous number of Russian 'Patriots' dying in Ukraine right now.  This is like a 'Bay of Pigs' disaster.  The Russian military is not intervening, and, thereby, sentencing the people that Putin duped into going to Ukraine to almost certain death. 

Would be interesting to know the selection criteria for being one of the "little green men" sent to Ukraine.  I would guess it is like being a laid-off employee who po'd the wrong person.  The better men would be in the 2nd echelon, which generally only moves in after 1st echelon successes, not after failures.  Then there are the REMF's (rear echelon MF's) who have the cushy jobs because they are relatives or friends of the right people.

[The Natural]

I'm just curious: 

We've got a couple people on here who obviously support the Russian media and their position.  In various reports today, farmers in the border areas of Russia have been advised to do any harvesting prior to August 3rd (as if the Russian government would broadcast such news to the farmers prior to an invasion).

What is your position if the Russian armed forces do invade Ukraine in the next week or two?  Are you for it?  Endorsing it?  What?

Manny? 

Natural?

GQ?

LivefromUkraine? 

Fathertime!?

What are your positions on an invasion by Russian forces?

It can no longer be ignored that this is a possibility.

Before answering this question, I would just want to make a few Points. First, I skimmed through the replies on here. I think that even the "pro-Russians" here get it all wrong. IN MY OPINION! This situation we got here is way Beyond "Putin saving his face". If anything, Putin and Russia has been passive both in action and Language. They have just about exhausted all diplomatic means in sorting out this question but have been met With nothing more than aggression and a joint western media campaign to demonize Putin. Washington wants total surrender from Kremlin or a war. The sooner Kremlin (and also Beijing, because they're Next in line) understand this and act accordingly, the better. I have nothing but contempt for the rulers in Washington, but even more for the EU idiots that are willing pawns of Washington as they commit their countries to economical suicide With their sanctions, just to please the psycopaths in Washington which is under to influence of the neo-cons.

As With the economy going up and then Down again, maybe Our current world paradigm now really needs a shake that can awake the big ignorant masses of their big political sleep and remind them they are also part of world events?

Russia to invade Ukraine, you ask.

When they annexed Crimea (which was a very good thing except I need a visa now) they should have annexed eastern Ukraine at the same time. Unfortunately Putin then still believed the west could be reasoned With. I really hope by now he hold no such illusions. The west have now declared war. Washington has managed to make Quislings out of the EU representatives and in the west nobody's complaining about it but those doing business With Russia. The media in the US AND Europe are all 1984'ish. Putin and Russia has two Choices:

1. Give up, have a US-backed colour revolution in Russia and get a US puppet president and government. The Russian Public have even more of a reason to feel inferior, this time and for all history to come. China will surrender as a consequence of Russia's fall. The indispensable and exceptional People of USA will wrap themselves in their flag and tell themselves that this is the end of history. It is done, it is Perfect. They are the chosen People. Next to the Israelis, of course.

2. Never give up. Stand for truth. Take the heat for a while and get to work and then make the idiots in USA and Europe fry in their own bacon.

[jone]

Natural,

Thanks for your perspective.  I appreciate you responding.

[CanadaMan]

Perfect example:  The MH17 shootdown would be a perfect opportunity to separate himself from the separatists.  But the Western Media has pushed and pushed Russia into saying such outlandish things that for Russia to now say:  'We recognize that the Airliner was shot down by combatants supposedly acting on behalf of the DPR and LGR.  But such egregious behavior is unacceptable to support."   will never happen. 

It appears that most here have not been keeping up with the latest developments on the MH17 shootdown.

It's looking more and more like it was not shot down by separatists, nor Russians, but by Ukraine fighter jets.

[Boethius]

That is taking a position?   

Yup.    I noted,

As it stands, Ukraine will retake the territory.

I agree with everything in Misha's post.

Based on my reading of his posts, that is Muzh's position, as well.

[fathertime]

Yup.    I noted,
I agree with everything in Misha's post.

Based on my reading of his posts, that is Muzh's position, as well.

ok noted NOW you take the position that Ukraine should fight,,,we will see what that gets Ukraine, the jury is out...


 Are you Muzh's spokesperson?  He probably thinks the same thing, but I'm pretty sure he is capable of stating his position, he is very experienced at criticizing everybody else, that is for sure. 


Fathertime! 

[fathertime]

It appears that most here have not been keeping up with the latest developments on the MH17 shootdown.

It's looking more and more like it was not shot down by separatists, nor Russians, but by Ukraine fighter jets.

Hey CanadaMan,  that might be true...I really don't know anymore...I got caught up in the US media storm and actually fully believed it was a bumbling Separatist that did it.......but  now I'm no longer believing what the USA has been saying or the 'evidence' on this one...from my perspective it is up for grabs now as to who did it...just don't know.   


 If and I say again IF indeed it was Ukraine that accidentally shot it down, and Russia is being blamed and if I were leading Russia, I'd be irate over the unjust demonetization over this...and maybe more apt to do something drastic...so in a way it would be better for the world if a bumbling separatist did actually shoot down the jet.   




Fathertime!   

[Hammer2722]

It appears that most here have not been keeping up with the latest developments on the MH17 shootdown.

It's looking more and more like it was not shot down by separatists, nor Russians, but by Ukraine fighter jets.

So,where is your proof of this? Russian news?

[Boethius]

Are you Muzh's spokesperson?  He probably thinks the same thing, but I'm pretty sure he is capable of stating his position, he is very experienced at criticizing everybody else, that is for sure. 

You certainly had no compunction about stating he has no position.  I noted, based on what I've read, I know his position.  I will state my opinion as I wish.  I don't need you to decide what I can, or cannot, post.

[Boethius]

Today's Daily Beast has a series of photos of movement of a BUK missile.


http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/08/01/the-buk-that-could-an-open-source-odyssey.html