Poroshenko claims Ukraine is now being offered weapons by NATO.

[Brasscasing]

I showed you a wiki link showing you Russian active duty personnel of over 750,000 based off the IISS think tank and an audit of paid military personnel. The numbers in your wiki link is claim to be from IISS think tank too. IISS also said Russia has an extra 2 million reserve soldiers and 474,000 paramilitary which adds up to 3.2 million available to fight for Russia. The link you provided states Russia has over 15,000 tanks which is a number you didn't believe earlier. Believe now? 15,000 tanks could easily be assigned to over 20 divisions. The math isn't that hard.

Your numbers reflect the entire  Russian military establishment. My numbers reflect current ground force strength and that's what's relevant.

As far as your reserve numbers...Not according to the Russians, they're just reestablishing a reserve force...

Russia to introduce Army Reserve force – report
 Published time: October 13, 2014 03:49

..."Russia's Ministry of Defense is planning to form Army Reserve units comprised of experienced volunteers, who will regularly undergo military training and at any moment will be ready to take arms to defend their country, Izvestia reports.

“The personnel of these units, while continuing to work at various positions in their own companies, will regularly participate in military training, and receive certain monthly payment for being enlisted in the Army Reserve,” deputy chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee, Franz Klintsevich, told Izvestia newspaper.

The recruits should be ready, Klintsevich says, to be called up to a rallying point “at any moment” to get a weapon and take their specific place in a pre-formed military unit.

The framework allowing such non-regular military units should be reflected in the two upcoming military laws, Izvestia reports.

Analysts, such as retired army colonel Victor Litovkin, believe the creation of an Army Reserve will help the army to “constantly be at the highest level of preparedness.”

“Most importantly, if hostilities begin, reservists will not be cannon meat and will be able to perform combat tasks to which they are assigned,” Litovkin told the publication. The expert added that former regular conscripts will most likely be the ones that sign up for Reservist service.

The Russian military is expected to have around one million active-duty servicemen by 2020, fully combat-ready and formed around easily deployable brigades. Russian president Vladimir Putin has committed $755 billion over the next decade to enable such reorganization, so that at least 70 percent of the Russian army is equipped with latest-generation weaponry and equipment

http://rt.com/news/195376-russian-army-reserve-units/

Now, note the last paragraph (my bolded). Brigades not divisions, the Russian military is expected to have around one million by 2020 not army or ground forces but the Russian military and finally there's that 70 percent again for re modernizing (my tank figures).

Yes my link does state 12,500 in reserve or storage. These figures are all over the internet it doesn't surprise me in the least. At one time they were accurate. It's estimated that the Soviets had 55,000 thousand tanks ranging from t-64s thru t-80s, all museum pieces now (edited to add or scrap).

This article is from 2009 and more along the lines of realistic figures I've been suggesting all along...

It's in Russian so Google translate as always is a little rough. Keeping in mind this piece is from 2009 so close to six years old now....

Tank forces during the reform of the armed forces will be reduced by 10 times

Moscow . July 1st. INTERFAX.RU - In the Armed Forces of Russia, the number of tanks will be reduced to two thousand units , "Interfax -AVN " a source in the Defense Ministry. According to him, under the reform of the Army General Staff approved orgshtatnuyu structure of armored forces in the composition of ground crews and coastal forces of the Navy. Organizational tank units will consist of two separate tank brigades and more than 20 armored battalions in the brigade of constant combat readiness

The total number of different versions of the park tanks ( T-90 , T-80 , T-72 , etc . ) Will be reduced to 2 thousand . Units. Thus, the number of tanks in comparison with 2005 will be reduced by almost 10 times .

http://www.interfax.ru/87986


A more readable opinion piece from the same year discussing the press release in more detail...

Tank force reductions or statistical juggling

"At present the Russian Army has about 22,000 tanks, including more than 15,000 at storehouses. This makes up for just over 6,000 combat-ready tanks. Permanent readiness units have between 1,000 and 1,500 tanks.

In the next ten years, army divisions will be replaced with permanent readiness brigades and battalions operating 2,000 to 2,300 combat-ready main battle tanks whose number will increase somewhat. Training units will have several hundred more tanks. Another 3,000-4,000 tanks will remain at storehouses. Consequently, the Russian Army will have a total of 6,000 to 7,000 tanks."...

http://sputniknews.com/analysis/20090703/155424380.html

So tanks but no tanks I'm sticking with my original projections. 

I don't why you are trying to minimize Russia's forces. It's no surprise they are one of the more aggressive nations in the world and it shouldn't be a surprise they possess a large military. So what is some is on reserve. America has equipment and personnel on reserve too but when it's time for a world war style war, Russia and America have plenty of equipment already produced and available and the factories to produce much more. Units you think don't exist do exist and will be reactivated.

They do possess a large military. I'm not denying that. What they are not is invincible.

They don't possess these inflated numbers in equipment and manpower and they're mostly comprised of conscripts and contract soldiers. They're strategic forces are outdated and they're in the process of scrambling to reorganize, re equip and modernize.

Don't give them more credit than they're realistically worth, Billy. That's all I'm saying.

Of course South Korea has it's own army but most Americans stationed there are near the demilitarized zone. They are there to help deter North Korea from invading and show support for South Korea. They were not designed to win a fight with North Korea.

Well let's hope the North Koreans don't decide to invade then because I'd hate to think that close to 700,000 service personnel  from three separate commands were standing opposite a hostile enemy thinking they weren't there to win the fight.

If England can beat Europe's biggest threat, Russia, alone then America is not needed in Europe. England along with it's fellow Western European nations should have it easily taken care of. You might want to research the amount of personnel and equipment England has before letting bias against Russia cloud your judgment and favor our friends.

Oh, I'm aware of British military capabilities. I've worked for and along side them in several theatres and had Brits working for me on occasion as well. Don't underestimate the UK's military, my friend. They're downright nasty when provoked.

NATO countries will stand idle temporarily while Poland and the Baltics are consumed. Russia already proved when they place massive troop buildups on the border of Ukraine, NATO doesn't match troop buildups on their borders so NATO would be unprepared. If Germany, England and France sends their forces in before America's mainland troops show up, that would be stupid. What would be the rush for them to do that when they know America will eventually show up for the fight? Before entering the fight, NATO will give Russia warnings to leave before entering the battle just as we did a weaker country named Iraq when they occupied Kuwait. NATO's first option will be to avoid a fight before fighting to liberate their member nations. Western European nations aren't prepared for a major fight as much as you want to believe. They have a habit of not taking security seriously by underfunding their militaries and failing to perform their duties in recent missions.


If Putin lets his anger get the better of him and he decides to roll into Poland and the Baltics, he doesn't face much risk in losing Russia. NATO, with America's mainland troops, will eventually win and liberate Poland and the Baltics but we will not go into Russia. They have too many tactical nukes that will do serious damage to our armies and I'm sure Putin will threaten to use them before losing Russia. The West is too kind anyway. If we can give Saddam Insane a second chance, surely we will give a more dangerous Putin a second chance before entering Russia costing massive amounts of lives should Putin cross the line. In the event of war, I don't see Russia losing their country even if America kicks Russia's azz.

I believe for the most part this is a credible synopsis as far as a timeline goes. I might not agree with some of your wording but it's a sound analysis.

I totally agree with you regarding NATO not going over Russia's borders ( not permanently or with the intention of occupying it least wise). That's not going to happen.

Brass

[AC]

How many battle ready tank brigades does Ukraine have?  How many battle ready tanks would it really take Russia to get their land bridge, especially if they have air support?

[lordtiberius]

How many battle ready tank brigades does Ukraine have?  How many battle ready tanks would it really take Russia to get their land bridge, especially if they have air support?

Armored warfare requires lots of logistical support - something Russia HAS NEVER done well.  Ukraine has no navy and its air and land forces do not enjoy numeric parity.  The Russians don't exactly have 3 to 1 odds either.  It will be a war of attrition.  That does not favor the aggressor.  You are a military man.  You know this.

[AC]

Armored warfare requires lots of logistical support - something Russia HAS NEVER done well.  Ukraine has no navy and its air and land forces do not enjoy numeric parity.  The Russians don't exactly have 3 to 1 odds either.  It will be a war of attrition.  That does not favor the aggressor.  You are a military man.  You know this.

My question was directed at poster Brasscasing.  I will wait for his response.

Russia has never done logistical support well?  That's funny but I recall them taking tanks all the way to Berlin in WWII.

And all the way to Hungary in 1956.  Czechoslovakia in 1968. 

Who is going to stop them if they decide to go all in?  Your dreams of NATO going into Ukraine are just that -- dreams. 

For a military guy you really don't display much realistic knowledge.  Just a lot of hot air and bravado. 

[JayH]

Russia’s New Direction for Its Armed Forces
http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?topic=18729.new#new

[JayH]

Who is going to stop them if they decide to go all in? 

 
      AC              FT               

??   ?? ??

[BillyB]

They do possess a large military. I'm not denying that. What they are not is invincible.

Russia's military isn't totally competent or modern but they have one big advantage over NATO. They have one Chief for a lot of Indians. NATO has a lot of Chiefs and not enough Indians. NATO was incompetent during their missions in Libya and Afghanistan. They've never had a mission against foes that are much more competent and larger than what they faced in Libya and Afghanistan. It's best NATO passes the lead to America's mainland army should Russia try something.

How many battle ready tank brigades does Ukraine have?  How many battle ready tanks would it really take Russia to get their land bridge, especially if they have air support?

Ukraine has a lot of tanks but Russia probably isn't selling them the parts to keep them up and running, most are outdated, and I doubt Ukraine had funds anyway for the upkeep.

http://www.globalfirepower.com/armor-tanks-total.asp

[JayH]

Ukraine has a lot of tanks but Russia probably isn't selling them the parts to keep them up and running, most are outdated, and I doubt Ukraine had funds anyway for the upkeep.

http://www.globalfirepower.com/armor-tanks-total.asp

BB--this is a prime example of why you need to read posts and links provided-- I previously commented on Ukraines efforts to gear up production and repair facilities across Ukraine. Many jobs have been on offer and active recruitment of previous employee's has been going on for some time now !!
Only a day or so ago--I discussed that the money spent in all this would help the economy at large.

Like I say BB-- be careful of what was-it is not necessarily how it is now.


The T-84 is a Ukrainian main battle tank

The T-84 is the latest Ukrainian development of the T-80 series, designed by KMDB in Kharkiv. A main design objective was to make Ukraine's arms industry independent of Russia's, after resulting difficulties in fulfilling a contract to supply T-80UD tanks
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T-84

Kharkiv Morozov Machine Building Design Bureau



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kharkiv_Morozov_Machine_Building_Design_Bureau

[AC]

      AC              FT               

??   ?? ??

Why don't you go to Ukraine and volunteer to be in their ATO Jay, since you're so gung-ho for war?  Or is it all just a bunch of hot air, from a guy who's never been in the military, doesn't believe that citizens in the USA have a right to own firearms for personal protection, and is likely an overweight bald old guy way past the age that he would be useful in any military or war?

Considering your true nature Jay I don't think it's an understatement about you being somewhat cowardly.  It's not even your friends and family who are potentially going to put their lives at risk.  I doubt you even speak Russian or Ukrainian anywhere near fluently, so if you go to one of these send-offs, they've got to be thinking, what is this cheerleader doing here?

Not being realistic about what they are up against is far worse then telling the truth about it.  Hoping for peace while also hoping that they get some decent defensive weapons -- I call that normal.

I don't think you're normal at all, because you are so gung ho that others go to war and lose their lives.  I think you're a very strange guy, and not really helpful like you might think.

[lordtiberius]

My question was directed at poster Brasscasing.  I will wait for his response.

Russia has never done logistical support well?  That's funny but I recall them taking tanks all the way to Berlin in WWII.

And all the way to Hungary in 1956.  Czechoslovakia in 1968. 

Who is going to stop them if they decide to go all in?  Your dreams of NATO going into Ukraine are just that -- dreams. 

For a military guy you really don't display much realistic knowledge.  Just a lot of hot air and bravado.

A state sponsored terrorism against an unarmed population is not a military operation.  It is cowardice.  And you know they never would have reached Berlin without generous lend lease bribes from you know who.

If you really want to insult me, do it to my face.  PM me.  This over the internet stuff is for kids.

[lordtiberius]

Why don't you go to Ukraine and volunteer to be in their ATO Jay, since you're so gung-ho for war?  Or is it all just a bunch of hot air, from a guy who's never been in the military, doesn't believe that citizens in the USA have a right to own firearms for personal protection, and is likely an overweight bald old guy way past the age that he would be useful in any military or war?

Considering your true nature Jay I don't think it's an understatement about you being somewhat cowardly.  It's not even your friends and family who are potentially going to put their lives at risk.  I doubt you even speak Russian or Ukrainian anywhere near fluently, so if you go to one of these send-offs, they've got to be thinking, what is this cheerleader doing here?

Not being realistic about what they are up against is far worse then telling the truth about it.  Hoping for peace while also hoping that they get some decent defensive weapons -- I call that normal.

I don't think you're normal at all, because you are so gung ho that others go to war and lose their lives.  I think you're a very strange guy, and not really helpful like you might think.

And what about you?  Have you ever been to Ukraine?  How many languages do you speak?

[lordtiberius]

Billy, NATO also has spare parts and Warsaw Pact arms it can sell to Ukraine as well as some of its newer members were Warsaw Pact members.

[BillyB]

I previously commented on Ukraines efforts to gear up production and repair facilities across Ukraine. Many jobs have been on offer and active recruitment of previous employee's has been going on for some time now !!

Ukraine isn't the only nation in the world that will increase production and hire in a time of conflict. Within a 5 year period the Soviet Union produced over 100,000 armored vehicles. The numbers of Russia tanks Brass and I were debating that Russia owns could be old news by now.


During WW2 Germany had better weapons, were better led, and had more experienced troops and nearly beat Russia. Stalin killed most of his intelligent officers so the army wasn't well led, yet they ended up beating back Germany on the Eastern front and ended the war as a superpower. Putin is aware Russia can come out of a major conflict stronger when all the additional manufacturing of military weapons is done.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_combat_vehicle_production_during_World_War_II

[Chelseaboy]

There is a lot of talk that Russia has been sending in troops into eastern Ukraine on here and also from Ukraine sources,and yet there doesn't seem to be any calling-up of young men in Ukraine to fight.

This year i've been communicating with a girl from Nikolaev and recently also another from Dnepropetrovsk..and both told me no men from their cities are being or have been called-up to the Ukrainian Army...

Even if we say the current Ukrainian troops are perfectly capable of dealing with the current Russian troops,without having to call-up and train new recruits..i'm surprised that all men under 50 are not being called-up to at least train for the threat of a full-scale invasion from Russia... yet the local nightclubs are still full of the same young men i'm informed.

Strange behaviour for a country at war ?

It does make one wonder if the reports of Russian troops in Ukraine..and the threat of a possible Russian invasion is all a lot of BS/hype...we are talking Ukraine after all.

[calmissile]

There is a lot of talk that Russia has been sending in troops into eastern Ukraine on here and also from Ukraine sources,and yet there doesn't seem to be any calling-up of young men in Ukraine to fight.

This year i've been communicating with a girl from Nikolaev and recently also another from Dnepropetrovsk..and both told me no men from their cities are being or have been called-up to the Ukrainian Army...

Even if we say the current Ukrainian troops are perfectly capable of dealing with the current Russian troops,without having to call-up and train new recruits..i'm surprised that all men under 50 are not being called-up to at least train for the threat of a full-scale invasion from Russia... yet the local nightclubs are still full of the same young men i'm informed.

Strange behaviour for a country at war ?

It does make one wonder if the reports of Russian troops in Ukraine..and the threat of a possible Russian invasion is all a lot of BS/hype...we are talking Ukraine after all.

You are mistaken in the information you received from your friends.  We personally have family members of young men that have been called up and deployed.  In addition, all their friends in their 20's have been called up.  My personal friend, a retired officer in the Ukraine Border Patrol out of Cherkassy was also called up and deployed.

I don't have time to find the links, but I do recall a directive from the government that required all age appropriate men to register and many of them have been conscripted and deployed.  This included men that are currently in college and had to take a leave to serve in the military.

[AC]

And what about you?  Have you ever been to Ukraine?  How many languages do you speak?

How many times I've been to Ukraine is none of your concern.  How many languages do you think that you speak?  I have no doubt that if you do speak a bit of Russian when you are over there, the people you speak it to usually are scratching their heads after you leave and wondering what you just said.

I say that with confidence because many of us are scratching our heads and wondering WTF you were trying to say on this forum in English.

Speaking a few phrases in a foreign language is not that difficult.  Speaking a foreign language entirely fluently is another matter altogether.

[lordtiberius]

Ukraine isn't the only nation in the world that will increase production and hire in a time of conflict. Within a 5 year period the Soviet Union produced over 100,000 armored vehicles. The numbers of Russia tanks Brass and I were debating that Russia owns could be old news by now.

when?

During WW2 Germany had better weapons, were better led, and had more experienced troops and nearly beat Russia. Stalin killed most of his intelligent officers so the army wasn't well led, yet they ended up beating back Germany on the Eastern front and ended the war as a superpower. Putin is aware Russia can come out of a major conflict stronger when all the additional manufacturing of military weapons is done.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_combat_vehicle_production_during_World_War_II

Wehrmacht logisticians opposed the war.  The Germans also had no reserves.  The Soviets had much more.  Also the Soviet Union had 400 million souls under its thumb - Russia less than 140.

[AC]

Ukraine isn't the only nation in the world that will increase production and hire in a time of conflict. Within a 5 year period the Soviet Union produced over 100,000 armored vehicles. The numbers of Russia tanks Brass and I were debating that Russia owns could be old news by now.


During WW2 Germany had better weapons, were better led, and had more experienced troops and nearly beat Russia. Stalin killed most of his intelligent officers so the army wasn't well led, yet they ended up beating back Germany on the Eastern front and ended the war as a superpower. Putin is aware Russia can come out of a major conflict stronger when all the additional manufacturing of military weapons is done.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_combat_vehicle_production_during_World_War_II

My suspicion is that Ukraine has just under 1,000 tanks which are fully operational and ready for combat at this point right now as I write this.  I think that this is a reasonable guess based on them previously having just over 4,000 tanks and based on the fact that Yanukovych bled the military dry by stealing funds from them or allowing his cronies to do so.

I believe that Russia has in the neighborhood of 6,000 tanks that they could assemble and throw into an invasion of Ukraine.  Some are already within Ukraine and others are assembled at the hub I posted about, still others can be brought into the theater of war.

More importantly I believe that the Russians and their mercenaries in Ukraine have tank killer weapons.  Whether or not any NATO countries have given Ukraine some javelins is unknown. 

Now add to this situation that if Putin does send his forces into Ukraine in an all-out invasion he will also send aircraft and attack helicopters and he will have total air superiority as well as thousands of tanks.

The average Ukrainian soldier should be able to defend against up to 4 Russian soldiers (the ratio favors those who are defending their native homeland by up to 1 to 4) provided that they had equal weapons, but they don't.  At least not yet.  The clock is ticking and it's unknown if the USA and others will quickly provide what they need.

Hopefully all of this discussion is mere speculation and a moot point.  Hopefully the economic sanctions will continue to do so much damage to the Russian economy that Mr. Putin decides not to go ahead with this venture.

[AC]

when?

Wehrmacht logisticians opposed the war.  The Germans also had no reserves.  The Soviets had much more.  Also the Soviet Union had 400 million souls under its thumb - Russia less than 140.

Huh?  Care to clarify that?  You were talking about the Soviets versus the Germans.

[jone]

AC,

What he is saying that at the time of WWII, the Soviet States combined were around 400 Million.  The current Russian population is around 144 million.

However, in truth, the population in 1937 was very controversial.  After the Holdomor in the early 30's the population of the Soviet Union was around 168 Million in 1937.  This was not the figure Stalin wanted, after preaching population growth for five years.  The producers of the census were sent to gulags because they had not inflated the figures.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_Census_%281937%29

Where LT pulled his 400 Million from, I guess he'll have to explain.

[AC]

AC,

What he is saying that at the time of WWII, the Soviet States combined were around 400 Million.  The current Russian population is around 144 million.

However, in truth, the population in 1937 was very controversial.  After the Holdomor in the early 30's the population of the Soviet Union was around 168 Million in 1937.  This was not the figure Stalin wanted, after preaching population growth for five years.  The producers of the census were sent to gulags because they had not inflated the figures.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_Census_%281937%29

Where LT pulled his 400 Million from, I guess he'll have to explain.

The overall population of the Soviet Union in June 1941 was 196,716,000.00

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_Soviet_Union


The overall population of Germany was 70,244,000.00

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Germany

[JayH]

There is a lot of talk that Russia has been sending in troops into eastern Ukraine on here and also from Ukraine sources,and yet there doesn't seem to be any calling-up of young men in Ukraine to fight.

This year i've been communicating with a girl from Nikolaev and recently also another from Dnepropetrovsk..and both told me no men from their cities are being or have been called-up to the Ukrainian Army...

Even if we say the current Ukrainian troops are perfectly capable of dealing with the current Russian troops,without having to call-up and train new recruits..i'm surprised that all men under 50 are not being called-up to at least train for the threat of a full-scale invasion from Russia... yet the local nightclubs are still full of the same young men i'm informed.

Strange behaviour for a country at war ?

It does make one wonder if the reports of Russian troops in Ukraine..and the threat of a possible Russian invasion is all a lot of BS/hype...we are talking Ukraine after all.

CB --in the last week I posted a link --over 200,000 have been called up and first intake is due now.That is additional numbers for the coming year.
Sometimes those inside Ukraine are not always aware of everything going on-many rumours abound  and get spread.

[Brasscasing]

How many battle ready tank brigades does Ukraine have?  How many battle ready tanks would it really take Russia to get their land bridge, especially if they have air support?

I've read estimates as diverse as 600 plus to 1700 plus MBTs so basing those numbers on Russian tank Bn numbers (which I believe Ukraine's ground forces have adopted) anywhere from (edited to read 2 to 3 brigades). I doubt they'd be deploying in those numbers though. Probably in Bn or Regt strength at most. They don't have replacements and as far as I know a primary reserve so they need to be frugal with use.

Based on western doctrine you wouldn't commit more than 1 third available assets into the front line or FEBA (forward edge battle area) knowing that armor and crews need rest and refit, reserve units ready to plug holes breakthroughs, replace losses, etc.   

As an aside and as a curiosity, what needs to be remembered is that before and for quite a while after the fall of the USSR Ukraine was the 'arsenal' of the Russian military machine.

It was Ukraine's factories rebuilding the t-72s to t-80, 84 specs and apparently, I say apparently because I can't confirm the following images as the location the photographer purports to have taken them, these factories were simply left to rot after closure.

If these graveyards still exist there is a poop load of raw material here...





The article itself...

Perhaps they should have held on to them: Hundreds of rusting tanks abandoned in secret Ukrainian depot unveiled as Russia's armoured vehicles line its streets

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2572149/Stunning-images-huge-abandoned-tank-graveyard-Ukraine-machines-come-retirement-tensions-Russia-continue-escalate.html#ixzz3OjeCMBFM

How many tanks? Tough call. Based on available info maybe two tank Regts and adequate supporting motorized/light infantry as the leading edge.

I can't really comment with accuracy because I don't know the complete (or even accurate) tactical situation on the ground there other than what you or anyone else knows outside the people 'in the know'. Maybe it's been decided tanks aren't the right machine for the job and infantry can get the job done, who knows?

As I mentioned earlier, if it were me, I'd be as concerned with the planning and resources of what it would take to hold the area as much as the planning of the operation to take it.

The advantage for the Russians is, if they break through, they're back on supposedly friendly ground again. It's a matter of holding the flank after that.

LT's right though, the recipe for offensive numerical superiority in men and machines is at least 3 to 1. Technology has changed that ratio somewhat in certain conditions but whatever the Russians do decide you can pretty well count on that ratio.

Brass

[AC]

LT's right though, the recipe for offensive numerical superiority in men and machines is at least 3 to 1. Technology has changed that ratio somewhat in certain conditions but whatever the Russians do decide you can pretty well count on that ratio.

Brass

Very interesting article and analysis, thanks.  Are you saying that the Russians need to have a numerical superiority of 3 to 1 or more to take territory, or that they already have it?

My guess is that they have numerical superiority in the range of 5 to 1 or better, in regards to fully operational tanks.

[BillyB]

Billy, NATO also has spare parts and Warsaw Pact arms it can sell to Ukraine as well as some of its newer members were Warsaw Pact members.

Wonderful. Some would say Poland is a hero if they supplied Ukraine with those arms and spare parts, others would say they are stupid. It would be those type of actions that may get Poland in trouble with Russia and NATO would have to come to Poland's aid. NATO may not be looking for war(trouble) but war(trouble) may come looking for them.

My guess is that they have numerical superiority in the range of 5 to 1 or better, in regards to fully operational tanks

There are other factors that need to be taken into account. There are times territory can be taken easily without firing a shot. For example, Crimea and East Ukraine would be much easier for Russia to take than West Ukraine.