Is it actually Russia that is imposing more and more costs?

[Shadow]

By your definition then it's OK to attack your brother or family?    After all UA was the 'little brother' and you sanction the attack on UA by 'big brother' Russia. 

If your little brother stabs you in the back because his gilfriend told him, should you sit and bleed to death?

[AkMike]

Little brother was only walking out to door to explore the neighborhood when big brother did the back stabbing.

[Shadow]

Little brother was only walking out to door to explore the neighborhood when big brother did the back stabbing.

Not at all. He just took an advance on his pocket money to date his new girl.

[AkMike]

Not at all. He just took an advance on his pocket money to date his new girl.

 LMAO,  No that was the other brother that took the cash and ran out the door. Yanku was his name..  Afterwards he gave little brothers cash to big brother and hid in his room.

[Shadow]

 LMAO,  No that was the other brother that took the cash and ran out the door. Yanku was his name..  Afterwards he gave little brothers cash to big brother and hid in his room.

It was the same little brother, before his girlfriend started telling him to do evil things.

[AkMike]

No GF, he was tired of their advise/help. n He decided to go solo to avoid problems. Then big brother didn't like the idea of self determination.

[Shadow]

No GF, he was tired of their advise/help. n He decided to go solo to avoid problems. Then big brother didn't like the idea of self determination.

Nope. the gf was involved. Self determination he had a long time.

[Belvis]

Then have at it because it won't stop until they leave Ukraine for Ukrainians.

 I tend to cheer for the home team. 

Problem is that you cheer the fairy tales in Facebook, not the field game where the real performance is going on hidden  from your eyes. By summer we'll see the real score.
Don't be supprised 

[AkMike]

And right back at you Belvis!  

[Boethius]

From what I've read, and many have acknowledged here, Russia had the ability to swoop right in and simply seize large parts of E. Ukraine while the country was in chaos (if they wanted to), and yet they chose not to, but they did choose to in Crimea.   If their goal from the onset was to completely control regions in the Eastern Regions of Ukraine, why didn't they just do it all at once, instead of going about it in a way that is bound to be far less effective? It could be contended that they are merely imposing costs as the conflict goes based on each step we take.

Taking the region is one thing.  Maintaining control is a completely different matter.  Russia would have had to have dealt with a hostile population, and become even more of a pariah on the world stage than they are right now.  That is why they did not invade Ukraine directly.

The goal is not to control region directly but rather, by proxies.  Have they succeeded?  Yes and no.  Yes, in that the destabilization ensures Kyiv is focused on the war, and not on improving the country.  No, because the region in turmoil has no power in Kyiv.

Order of things from this POV might be:
1. Western influence helps take down Pro-Russian leadership in Ukraine
2. Russia retaliates by seizing Crimea
3 Western nations strike back by supporting Ukraine and sanctions on Russia
4.  Russia retaliates by helping to create more havoc in Eastern Parts of Ukraine.

If this is the stance Russia has taken, then we have control to end this....or we have the option to take it further but it appears Russia will continue to retaliate.

At some point, the sanctions will become too much for Russia, if the price of oil stays low, which will be the case at least until autumn. 

[Boethius]

Interesting, so if i'm reading you right you are saying that the Russian use of proxies has been effective. 

To date in Donbas, yes, it has been.  However, attempts to spread the conflict have not been successful.

Unlike many others here, from the beginning, I thought a large scale invasion wasn't very likely.   Reason being, that I felt an occupation of a large part of Ukraine was not very feasible.  It may be that the Russians feel their hand is being forced with the sanctions and are going to continue to help stir up trouble so long as the West continues to  ratchet up.  I continue to hold that they are not backing down, so throwing them a bone or two seems like a good way to move forward, and minimize the damage...although that doesn't necessarily have to happen today or tomorrow.   Of course another option is to never stop the current way of handling things and take our chances that something doesn't get much more ugly, but I think it likely would. 

On this we disagree.  I think the best course is to continue sanctions until Russia is willing to stop funding terrorism in Donbas.

[Boethius]

Fathertime: Your theory perhaps fails to fully recognise Russian strategy, which historically, in general terms, has often been very good (terrible executioners but great strategists). Crimea excepted, a simple military walk-in-takeover, which as you say, militarily, was relatively simple, would not be as saleable to the nationalistic audience.
 
The current quagmire of Eastern UA is working very well for RU strategists (again, great strategists, terrible executioners) because it is allowing, perhaps even fuelling, the demonization, of "these crazy UA people" in RU circles and convincing the same that USA is far more involved than it probably is - perhaps even allowing time for the latter to become more so.
 
On the nationalistic bent, it is interesting to observe even my wife and some of her friends, who are all quite well educated, most having lived and worked abroad for many years (quite similar to some we've seen here), clam up and admit that the only real feeling in the sickness of their stomach is that America is somehow at the bottom of this and then in the same breath admit that the fact they feel this way points to them not having matured much beyond soviet thinking even yet....   
 
I contend the current "strategy" is near perfect - the execution is extremely expensive in human capital but I don't think that was ever a consideration, nor has it ever been in Russian military history.

I agree with all of the above. 

[fathertime]

On this we disagree.  I think the best course is to continue sanctions until Russia is willing to stop funding terrorism in Donbas.

It appears your belief is that Russia will give in, and pull out when the going gets rougher...my belief is they will dig in. harden their tactics, and escalate and the body bags will mount.


Fathertime!   

[Boethius]

It appears your belief is that Russia will give in, and pull out when the going gets rougher...my belief is they will dig in. harden their tactics, and escalate and the body bags will mount.


Fathertime!

Then they will face even more sanctions. 

[fathertime]

Hypocrite-- you have shown zero compassion or empathy for Russian scum killing good Ukrainians and now you have the temerity to lecture others on morality?

When you start respecting others--you may get some from others-- and you talk of the brainless!!  You have wasted countless forum space in denying the bleeding blind obvious.

It seems to me that YOU JayH, have behaved like the hypocrite and 'wasted forum space'.  Your limited brain has failed to conceive that ultimately there will have to be a give on both sides to reach an agreement...and yeah your cheering for dead bodies is odious...and continues to further discredit whatever else you mutter about.   


Fathertime!   

[fathertime]

Then they will face even more sanctions.

That may well be.


Fathertime! 

[Doll]

Problem is that you cheer the fairy tales in Facebook, not the field game where the real performance is going on hidden  from your eyes. By summer we'll see the real score.
Don't be supprised 

Belvis, they don't understand the whole picture like you and I do.

[Doll]

If there are more sanctions that will be it- you know how stubborn Russians are. At that point they will no care at all.
Europe does not want any more (or any) sanctions. People are tired.

[Boethius]

European leaders have stated the reason for sanctions is to change policy, not punish the Russian people.  So, if behaviour changes, the sanctions may be lifted.  If not, they won't be.


The Russian hinterlands may support Putin, but in time, the sanctions will have an effect because of the whammy of low oil prices.

[Shadow]

European leaders have stated the reason for sanctions is to change policy, not punish the Russian people.  So, if behaviour changes, the sanctions may be lifted.  If not, they won't be.


The Russian hinterlands may support Putin, but in time, the sanctions will have an effect because of the whammy of low oil prices.

That is not the effect of the sanctions. Without sanctions the low oil prices would have effect as well.
The reason the EU is hesitant about sanctions is that they have been hit hard as well by the sanctions so far.

[Doll]

European leaders have stated the reason for sanctions is to change policy, not punish the Russian people.  So, if behaviour changes, the sanctions may be lifted.  If not, they won't be.


The Russian hinterlands may support Putin, but in time, the sanctions will have an effect because of the whammy of low oil prices.

Of course- not to punish
 

[Boethius]

There are statements by EU leaders suggesting more sanctions not be imposed now, despite Russian recalcitrance.  That suggests the intent is not to punish.

[cc3]

My Lugansk fiancee, now living with me in Lviv, has read this entire thread and is disgusted by the pro-Putin bloviating of Shadow, Live from Ukraine, Belvis , and Doll. None of you has been subjected to what she has been, driven from her home by Russian mercenaries and Chechen gunmen, and escaping the horror that is present day Lugansk by the skin of her teeth, in June. She would gladly target the invaders and annihilate them, if she had the wherewithal.

[Boethius]

That is not the effect of the sanctions. Without sanctions the low oil prices would have effect as well.
The reason the EU is hesitant about sanctions is that they have been hit hard as well by the sanctions so far.

The low oil prices have an effect, yes.  The EU may be hit by sanctions, but for the most part, they seem willing to accept that.

[Shadow]

The low oil prices have an effect, yes.  The EU may be hit by sanctions, but for the most part, they seem willing to accept that.

And so is Russia.