The Failure of Diplomacy in Ukraine

[Gator]

The Financial Times reporters collaborated to write a lengthy article on the failure of  diplomacy talks between Merkel (the designated lead for the West) and Putin.  The article delves into personalities and is very revealing, relying on reports from the inner sanctum of the person-to-person negotiations. It should interest all the armchair generals and diplomats. 

Entitled "Battle for Ukraine: How the west lost Putin."   

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e3ace220-a252-11e4-9630-00144feab7de.html#axzz3Qo2V6mrq

The article is mistitled.  It should have been "How Putin Keeps the West Off Balance."  It describes numerous opportunities for Putin to ratchet down the conflict only to see him turn up he heat.  It lists the failures of the West such as not being prepared to use military force.

It describes the betrayal of Ukraine (the only place where citizens have been killed holding an EU flag), the tense episodes after the downing of MH17, etc.  It quotes Merkel as saying "Russia might come to threaten not just Ukraine, but Georgia or the Balkans."

Before anyone scoffs at this article as conservative warmongering, keep in mind that Financial Times is highly respected.  And it opposed the Iraq War and endorsed Obama in both 2008 and 2012.

[AkMike]

I picked up a copy of the FT yesterday just for this article. It's quite interesting and 100% dead on.

[Gator]

I picked up a copy of the FT yesterday just for this article. It's quite interesting and 100% dead on.

The FT says this is the first of two articles examining "how the west misread the Russian leader’s determination."  The first is comprehensive so I can not imagine what the second article will address. 

The margin of the article's webpage lists some other interesting reports on Ukraine such as "How Poroshenko’s diplomatic success unraveled."  However, I can not access it without a FT subscription. 

[Steamer]

The FT says this is the first of two articles examining "how the west misread the Russian leader’s determination."

Closer to the truth would be "How the west blew the orange revolution, scheduled a rematch in Maidan and were totally surprised when Putin was having none of it."

[Boethius]

Closer to the truth would be "How the west blew the orange revolution, scheduled a rematch in Maidan and were totally surprised when Putin was having none of it."

Far from the truth.

[Gator]

Closer to the truth would be "How the west blew the orange revolution, scheduled a rematch in Maidan and were totally surprised when Putin was having none of it."

This FT article describes a long list of failures by the West's diplomatic efforts.   It does not state the West was behind Maidan, nor does any other mainstream media company.  Only Russia says such and a few like you.     

Steamer, based on your writing skills you are not an idiot.  So why do you accept the Russian malarkey?

[sleepycat]

Steamer, based on your writing skills you are not an idiot.  So why do you accept the Russian malarkey?

Diligent wife making sure he is following the Kremlin line?

[lordtiberius]

Far from the truth.

When has the truth stopped the #KremlinTrolls ?

Steamer, based on your writing skills you are not an idiot.  So why do you accept the Russian malarkey?

 

[BillyB]

"how the west misread the Russian leader’s determination."

I think the West knew Putin was all in on Ukraine but they weren't willing to react properly at first hoping a slap on the hand with sanctions will do the job. They were reluctant to face a bully. People are dying. They need to put on their big boy pants now or tell Ukraine to surrender to Russia to minimize the deaths.

"How the west blew the orange revolution, scheduled a rematch in Maidan and were totally surprised when Putin was having none of it."

Actually Putin blew stopping the Orange Revolution with a failed assassination of Yushchenko. They didn't give him a high enough radiation dose. Putin for some reason allowed the Orange Revolution to proceed without taking harsher steps in stopping it. These days he's got more support from his people and those in government to make sure Ukraine doesn't leave Russia's sphere of influence.

[lordtiberius]

or tell Ukraine to surrender to Russia to minimize the deaths.

Would you surrender?

[fathertime]

I think the West knew Putin was all in on Ukraine but they weren't willing to react properly at first hoping a slap on the hand with sanctions will do the job. They were reluctant to face a bully. People are dying. They need to put on their big boy pants now or tell Ukraine to surrender to Russia to minimize the deaths.

+565


Fathertime! 

[BillyB]

Would you surrender?

As an individual against a large army, yes. Living to fight another day is better than dying. If the West tells Poroshenko he is on his own and will receive no more help, in the event of a full Russian invasion it is wise for Poroshenko to negotiate a surrender instead of allowing Ukriane to be destroyed. If Ukraine has a chance on winning, they should fight and take that chance for freedom but the way it looks now, their army can't beat a few thousand rebels and Russian troops. They will get slaughtered if Russia sends in everything they got.


No matter what you've read in books or seen in movies, we are dealing with reality and the reality is even the underdogs need outside help to have a chance in winning. Here's an article showing the current rebel advantages and the conclusion that the West is running out of time to respond to Russia's aggression in Ukraine.


REbel Advantages

[AC]

+565


Fathertime!

-566

(BTW what's with these dumb numbers???)

[fathertime]

-566

(BTW what's with these dumb numbers???)

 Certain posts or parts of posts are graded on a secret numerical scale! 


Fathertime!   

[Gator]

Diplomacy Intensifies

Merkel said she was against providing weapons to Ukraine and preferred diplomatic solutions.   She is "walking the walk."  Tomorrow she and France's François Hollande  will fly to Moscow and meet with Putin and present a new peace proposal.

At the same time, Secretary of State's Kerry is in Kiev. 

These two moves are dramatic in the world of international diplomacy.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/05/hollande-merkel-kiev-ukraine-proposal-us

[Gator]

MORE

Vice-President Joe Biden has been dispatched to Europe to meet with NATO.  On Friday he and Kerry will meet with Merkel and Poroshenko in Munich.   Next week Merkel will fly to the US to meet Obama. 

This amount of attention by national leaders is unprecedented and signals a major push.   

[BillyB]

Tomorrow she and France's François Hollande  will fly to Moscow and meet with Putin and present a new peace proposal.

Putin, as always, will pretend to cooperate. Merkel and Hollande will go back and tell Ukraine to stop and give peace a chance and Putin will tell the rebels and his troops to take advantage of their pause.

At the same time, Secretary of State's Kerry is in Kiev. 

Poroshenko will swallow his pride again and beg for help telling Kerry Ukraine can't do it alone. Kerry will tell Poroshenko it's no secret anymore that Obama is considering supplying weapons. Get ready to take delivery. Putin understands this could be the big meeting that will eventually lead to the deaths of many of his soldiers. I don't think Putin will back off. He will tell his people the West is helping the fascists which are leading to the deaths of Russians who followed their hearts to fight in Ukraine. Putin will do some escalation of his own but there is a chance he may not risk major war over Ukraine.

Vice-President Joe Biden has been dispatched to Europe to meet with NATO.  On Friday he and Kerry will meet with Merkel and Poroshenko in Munich.   Next week Merkel will fly to the US to meet Obama. 

This amount of attention by national leaders is unprecedented and signals a major push.   

When the West decides to help Ukraine, they need to make sure Putin will feel pain. It's also important if they do decide to send weapons over there, it should be enough so that Ukraine could hold off a large invasion so the weapons aren't turned over to Putin with little use. NATO needs to be willing to provide assistance, not just weapons. If they can't agree on putting boots on the ground, air support should be on the table to help Ukraine in the event of a full invasion. They need to be clear with Putin he will face NATO should he decide to invade. Compared to sanctions, Putin will be motivated to end the conflict due to the threat of war coming to Russia and the thought the Russian troops he sent to Ukraine will be the underdog and dead. NATO needs to take into account Putin will not back off at all and this could go from a proxy war to a world war. Everybody has to be willing to go "all in".

[jone]

Two carrots (Merkel and Hollande)

One big stick:  The US

[Brasscasing]

Two carrots (Merkel and Hollande)

One big stick:  The US

Hollande's hedging his bets though. He's moving French tanks into Poland.

Brass

[jone]

Agreed.  But I believe that to be a NATO obligation.

[Brasscasing]

Agreed.  But I believe that to be a NATO obligation.

True. Still, he's not placing all his eggs in one basket thinking a peace proposal has to succeed which is a good thing in my book.

Brass 

[lordtiberius]

Two carrots (Merkel and Hollande)

One big stick:  The US

LOL

[Gator]

Negotiations are underway in Moscow.  I hope Merkel leaves with something positive.  However, everyone expects the diplomatic mission to fail once again with Merkel departing with this expression on her face.




Note:  the word used by Putin is not as crass as the "fuck" used in translation.

[Gator]

The important meeting between Merkel/Hollande and Putin continues.  Everyone is tightlipped about what is being proposed.


The Telegraph gives almost live coverage with frequent updates throughout the meeting:


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/11392108/Ukraine-crisis-Angela-Merkel-and-Francois-Hollande-to-fly-to-Russia-live.html


The latest news:  Michael Fallon, the UK Defence Secretary "said the UK would not be supplying weapons to Ukraine even if Washington decided to do so." Without Germany and UK participating in weapons deliveries, Putin will likely believe US will not go alone.  So Jone's "bad cop" "good cop" concept is D.O.A.

This really is a European issue and not an American one.  OTOH, if there were ever a need for NATO over the past 25 years, the Ukrainian conflict is exactly that  given the invasion of sovereign territory, implications for nuclear warfare, growing number of civilian casualties, etc.

[Brasscasing]

The latest news:  Michael Fallon, the UK Defence Secretary "said the UK would not be supplying weapons to Ukraine even if Washington decided to do so." Without Germany and UK participating in weapons deliveries, Putin will likely believe US will not go alone.  So Jone's "bad cop" "good cop" concept is D.O.A.

This really is a European issue and not an American one.  OTOH, if there were ever a need for NATO over the past 25 years, the Ukrainian conflict is exactly that  given the invasion of sovereign territory, implications for nuclear warfare, growing number of civilian casualties, etc.

Chances are he'll (be told) to change his attitude towards sending weapons. However, reading the European news it appears the western European countries are all making the same noises.

If this turns out to be the case and the US does go ahead with supplying weapons then a coalition of the willing will need to be formed most likely with the support of the east European, Nordic and willing to participate countries.

I won't speak for other countries but if it turns out that NATO countries are not going to act as one then it's time to withdraw Canada from both UN and NATO organizations as they've become essentially redundant. Further, under no circumstances should Canada send soldiers in defense of any country or organization not willing to participate in the defense of Ukraine.

Quite frankly with the events of the last year I'm beginning to wonder if North America shouldn't leave the (west) Europeans to their fate at Putin's leisure if they're not willing to fend for themselves.

But again it boils down to leadership (US) and there just isn't anyone at the moment. So the European leaders will all run around in circles screaming the sky is falling at the top of their lungs until the position is once again filled. A sorry mess indeed.

Brass