The Failure of Diplomacy in Ukraine

[Boethius]

The taking of Ukrainian territory is not the cake walk they assumed it would be. 

[fathertime]

The taking of Ukrainian territory is not the cake walk they assumed it would be.

You are assuming they were assuming it was going to be a cakewalk...I wouldn't make that assumption.

Fathertime!

[Boethius]

They did assume it.  They also assumed most of Southeastern Ukraine would follow.  That is why they sent agents of influence to Odesa, and why they have been bombing sites all over southeastern Ukraine.

[AkMike]

One of the keys are the body bags must not go home openly. State controlled media will help in getting the facts right.

 Didn't you see the news about the body bags?  They ran out.. 

  So now it cheaper and easier to burn them onsite and not worry about digging graves for parents to mourn over, and no accountability with names.. Just a small pike of dust.

[Gator]

The Western nations are making the right move to this point and have struck a balance...it is the lessor of two evils. 

So you no longer see this as a win-win!  Good start for understanding what is happening.  Yet just a start.   

When you recognize it as Sophie's Choice, you perhaps will be capable of critical thinking.  Now you are just a wannabe gadfly. 

[BillyB]

The taking of Ukrainian territory is not the cake walk they assumed it would be.

A few generals in the West went on the record and said Russia would roll over Ukraine easily if they did a full invasion. Putin is trying to destabilize Ukraine by promoting civil war. That's not a cakewalk only because the majority of Ukrainians don't want to fight each other and split the nation.

[fathertime]

So you no longer see this as a win-win!  Good start for understanding what is happening.  Yet just a start.   

When you recognize it as Sophie's Choice, you perhaps will be capable of critical thinking.  Now you are just a wannabe gadfly.

You have failed all along to keep up with the times. The potential for a win-win was a year ago and in retrospect had a deal that was considered unpalatable at the time been struck it may wind up being better than what is coming.if it was possible. .. Your inability to take all factors (including 1000's of Ukrainian deaths) into account is noted.

Fathertime!

[Gator]

You have failed all along to keep up with the times. The potential for a win-win was a year ago and in retrospect had a deal that was considered unpalatable at the time been struck it may wind up being better than what is coming.if it was possible. .. Your inability to take all factors (including 1000's of Ukrainian deaths) into account is noted.

Mr. Gadfly, it was never a win-win.  If so, Putin would have stopped after the 5 September Minsk Protocol (peace agreement).  Russian speaking Ukrainian separatists not only were protected, they had their piece of Ukraine to build their version of Turkish Cyprus or North Korea.     

Putin continued to advance.   Ukrainians understood such and that is why your so called win-win proposal (which never gained any support by anyone in the diplomatic circles) was Sophie's Choice.  Unlike Sophie, Russia had already taken one child (Crimea) and was well along in taking the second (Donbas).   Ukraine is fighting back in an attempt to prevent Russia taking her other children.   Russia will unless Putin is stopped.

[Gator]

An interesting synopsis of Putin's position from Bill Browder:

Bill Browder at one time ran one of the largest Russian investment funds and supported Putin.  After Browder exposed corruption, he was blacklisted and had to escape from Russia before being imprisoned.  He has some special insights into Putin. 

I agree with some but not all points he made in this commentary.  These are salient points:

             -  For every dollar Yanuk stole, Putin and his circle stole 50.
             -  The 1999 Chechyan war (as well as the Georgia 4-day war) taught Putin how war could boost his popularity.
             -   Putin never before had to deal with economic chaos.
             -   If for his own self-preservation, Putin will accept great destruction to Russia.

[fathertime]

Mr. Gadfly, it was never a win-win.  If so, Putin would have stopped after the 5 September Minsk Protocol (peace agreement).  Russian speaking Ukrainian separatists not only were protected, they had their piece of Ukraine to build their version of Turkish Cyprus or North Korea.     

1. I thought I was a wannabe gadfly?
2. I don't see the logic in this statement regarding the Minsk Protocol.  Why would Russia or Ukraine stopped if they didn't agree with the specific terms and come to a lasting agreement? Isn't obvious that both sides would have to agree for this to end? What you said made little sense.

Fathertime!

[Gator]

What you said made little sense.

Little sense to you; understandable.

Isn't obvious that both sides would have to agree for this to end?

 

They did agree on 5 September to a ceasefire including a buffer zone.   However, the pro-Russian separatists embedded with Russian regulars soon renewed their advance, in violation of the agreement.

Read here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_Protocol

I know you will say both sides were at fault.  Weigh the evidence.  Ukrainian military defended itself even with counter attacks, yet was not the aggressor.

I realize you think Putin is misunderstood and his intentions are limited to the defense of Russia.  Read more about him. 

[Gator]

Similar to the Bill Browder commentary above, here is another one from Forbes.  This author has spent much time covering warzones and political upheavals.   

Obama And Merkel Are Clueless About Putin: Yet It's So Simple

http://www.forbes.com/sites/melikkaylan/2015/02/10/obama-and-merkel-are-clueless-about-putin-yet-its-so-simple/

     ....the correct and unavoidable redoubt for us all in the West to rally around: arm Ukraine as best we can. Even if Putin triumphs eventually, it will cost him more and convey our resolve. Otherwise it will be the Baltics next, then eastern Europe, then the oil fields of Baku. Enough of this nonsense about Russian fears of encirclement, or Moscow saving people from Ukrainian Nazis and Georgian supremacists, and enough about trying diplomacy first and forever – all delusional hocus pocus.     

Not only does the West try to stop Putin in Ukraine, the West needs to take the offensive elsewhere.

   Now’s a chance for the West to think strategically by keeping him pinned down in Donbass while helping Central Asia to throw off the Russian yoke.   

   At the moment, [Russian citizens] are persuaded that Putin embodies their sense of pride. And they’ve had to sacrifice too little for that delusion. In Ukraine begins the transformation, if we only have the resolve.

I like the man's boldness.   Yet add him to the list of the informed observers who say Putin will not stop.

[fathertime]

Little sense to you; understandable.

Actually it did make little sense.  I think you were trying to convey that because the Minsk Protocol failed to stop all the fighting that Russia wasn't willing to negotiate.  I don't agree. It is not realistic to stop all individuals from fighting but that doesn't automatically mean the process was 100% doomed. They simply failed to reach an agreement yet.   I don't read into the breakdown of early negotiations as a harbinger that later negotiations won't be more fruitful.

I've read the most recent hang ups and sticking points and it isn't as if Russia doesn't have a point, as some here would like to think.

Fathertime!

[lordtiberius]

I'm pretty sure you have overestimated Russia. 


Russian citizens will not support an intervention in which their sons are openly going home in body bags.

Like these?



FT is right on this one.

[Photo Guy]

Putin's goal is the establishment of a New Russia. He does not want a demilitarized zone. He basically says it is okay for him to supply rebels with weapons and personnel, but not okay for the West to do the same for Ukraine. He should be asked point blank, how he feels about the rebels desire to push westward into Mariupol. Draw a line there, see how he reacts. That will tell us a lot. 

[fathertime]

They did assume it.  They also assumed most of Southeastern Ukraine would follow.  That is why they sent agents of influence to Odesa, and why they have been bombing sites all over southeastern Ukraine.

.
You are once again stating as fact something you are assuming.  I don't follow your reasoning at all in this case. It appears to me Russia is prepared for a large battle if that is what it takes.

Fathertime!

[lordtiberius]

.
You are once again stating as fact something you are assuming.  I don't follow your reasoning at all in this case. It appears to me Russia is prepared for a large battle if that is what it takes.

Fathertime!

lol

[Photo Guy]

Fathertime:
'...if that's what it takes..'

What does that mean? what the goals? Some separatist leaders have talked about going as far west as possible. Is that the goal? Let's say the pro-russian Russians take Mariupol, with thousands of casualties, what will Putin's reaction be?
a) 'That's a horrible travesty!'
b) 'Oh well.'
c) 'Excellent- good to see Russian-speakers being protected!'

[Photo Guy]

The taking of Ukrainian territory is not the cake walk they assumed it would be.

Good point. Putin's initial calculus was all about having the support of many more Ukrainians than is the actual reality. Girkin expressed that truth last year. I still think it might be a good idea to draw a line in the sand, during these talks- a demilitarized zone. Insist on that. Let the new Republics and Russia grapple with their new disaster area, created by themselves...

[BillyB]

Below are key sticking points from both sides if a deal is to get done. I don't see a compromise. Poroshenko wants the ceasefire line to return to the September agreement. Russia refuses to give up their gains because they earned it fair and square. Ukraine wants all foreign troops out and control of their borders back. Russia wants greater autonomy for east Ukraine. I feel this a bad move for Ukraine to make. With greater autonomy, either Russia will absorb or maintain heavy influence over those areas. If Putin maintains influence, he will rig the next presidential election as a step to control all Ukraine, install a puppet president and sign some agreements that will make it hard for Ukraine to divorce Russia again. Putin will be so popular with east Ukrainians that 115% of them will turn out to vote similar to what happened in Crimea so after Poroshenko, the next prez will be pro Russian, that's if autonomy is granted. I hope Poroshenko/Ukraine isn't stupid and fall into that trap.


Deal or no deal?

[AkMike]

Ahead of the talks, Mr Obama warned Mr Putin not to continue "aggressive actions".

"However, if Russia continues its aggressive actions in Ukraine, including by sending troops, weapons, and financing to support the separatists, the costs for Russia will rise," the White House said in a statement.

Obama threatens to send weapons to Ukraine - this will then turn into a proxy war. Angela Merkel is fully aware of this reality.

Dmitry Kiselev, one of Mr Putin’s chief propagandists, used a segment on Ukraine on his weekly television show on Sunday to remind viewers that Russia’s military doctrine allows nuclear strikes when the state is under threat, even in a conflict where only conventional weapons are in use.


 They're insane!

[fathertime]

This is a nice image and a good sign from earlier today! 

Fathertime!

[Taz]

In general I reject the premise you can negotiate with Putin.


Putin will only negotiate AFTER he has what he wants (or most of it) or he is defeated. You are clearly clueless if you don't understand this. He will continue to push until one of these happens. No lasting deal before then.

[BillyB]

This is a nice image and a good sign from earlier today!

I believe the people were much more tense than the photo shows. I don't know how Poroshenko can even negotiate with a guy who just stole a piece of his land and killing his people. Could you do it? Ukraine is losing. That's the only reason he's sitting at the table with Putin. Notice there's no silverware on the table? I got a feeling Poroshenko would love to ram a fork into Putin's throat.

[fathertime]

In general I reject the premise you can negotiate with Putin.


Putin will only negotiate AFTER he has what he wants (or most of it) or he is defeated. You are clearly clueless if you don't understand this. He will continue to push until one of these happens. No lasting deal before then.

It makes sense that Putin would negotiate after he has most of what he wants as it strengthens his negotiating power. I'd say it is his job to get the most he can.   It seems the West is attempting to strengthen their negotiating power by talking tougher and tougher....but taking the step of trying to arm Ukraine is a big step and Western leaders may feel the consequences are too great,  so making a deal now makes sense from that standpoint.


Fathertime!