Minsk, round two

[Boethius]

US releases satellite images with Russian armaments.  You know, the ones Russia says were not in Ukraine. -


http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/15/world/europe/us-says-images-show-russian-armaments-near-embattled-ukraine-town.html?_r=0

[Muzh]

On the Road to Putinlandia

I remind him that Germany contracted an ineradicable debt with respect to Ukraine (seven million dead in World War II alone) and that Chancellor Merkel cannot fail to honor it. He nods as if to say that he knows that, too, but is a little less sure of it.


In any event, he feels strongly that his country has paid too dearly for its freedom and independence to accept any form of diktat. “I am hoping with all my heart for a peace agreement, but we are not afraid of war. Didn’t your General de Gaulle say that great people, in dark times, have no better friends than themselves?”

http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-weekend-interview-on-the-road-to-putinlandia-1423871952

[Изумруд]

US releases satellite images with Russian armaments.  You know, the ones Russia says were not in Ukraine. -


http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/15/world/europe/us-says-images-show-russian-armaments-near-embattled-ukraine-town.html?_r=0

Accidental admission of Russian weapons?

Although probably accidentally, the document provided proof of direct Russian military involvement in the conflict. Among the heavy weapons to be withdrawn is the Tornado-S, which is explicitly mentioned. This high-tech, longrange multiple-launch rocket system (MLRS) entered into service in the Russian Federation in 2012, and is operated by no other state. Hence, if Tornados are to be withdrawn from the conflict zone, they could not have originated from anywhere but Russia.

http://www.fiia.fi/fi/publication/485/the_new_minsk_ceasefire/#.VN3_ZrP0PLQ.twitter

[Faux Pas]

As much as I don't trust Putin and skeptical the ceasefire will hold, I really believe it's possible we could have at least 30 days of peace. That is the amount time Ukraine must change their Constitution to allow rebel held territory more autonomy as required by the latest peace agreement. Ukraine's original Constitution said any change in it's borders has to be voted on by all people. That is why Crimea leaving was illegal. But with more autonomy, regions will be allowed to separate from Ukraine legally according to international law, become their own nation or allow themselves to be annexed by Russia. It may be to Russia's benefit to leave those regions in Ukraine which allows them to vote in Presidential elections so they can install another puppet president. It would be genius of Putin to engage in the latter to eventually annex all Ukraine or enter into a binding agreement between nations which doesn't allow Ukraine to leave Russia ever again. If he does that, he's going to come down hard on people to make sure they don't start Maidan 2.


It's beneficial for Putin to break ceasefires, not the West, if he doesn't like the wording or the way things are heading. If he keeps advancing, the next peace talk may have language in it that is more favorable to Russia. Russia still needs their land bridge to Crimea.

Therein lies the rub. It's not beneficial for Ukraine or those regions for them to have greater autonomy. Russia don't want them and they will have nothing trying to break away from Ukraine for autonomy or independence. It's already a depressed region and the war has worsened their position. Putin only wants to use them to disrupt the entire country.

Besides, I'm not certain Putin can stop the Russian military from advancing

[AkMike]

Bad link Boe.

 That leads to another article.

[AkMike]

Here is a link for  a similar one to the article Boe showed.

http://uapress.info/ru/news/show/61878

[The Natural]

Therein lies the rub. It's not beneficial for Ukraine or those regions for them to have greater autonomy. Russia don't want them and they will have nothing trying to break away from Ukraine for autonomy or independence. It's already a depressed region and the war has worsened their position. Putin only wants to use them to disrupt the entire country.

Putin might want them, if for nothing else than the area being a buffer zone towards the west. I don't know what the majority of People in Donbass want, but I reckon the best would be do like Crimea, vote to be a part of Russia. Ukraine is a failed state without any hope at all, in Our Lifetime, to come even Close to anything like western countries. Austerity and looting of the land is the future for them. Bright Young Ukrainians will flee if they can. What will be left is all those who cannot flee, cursing the day they cheered for Maidan. Western Companies harvesting all the Natural Resources and leaving ordinary folks in poverty. Donbass would do much better to go to Russia.

[mendeleyev]

Natural, do they put sugar is that kool-ade, or do you have to drink it bitter?

[The Natural]

Natural, do they put sugar is that kool-ade, or do you have to drink it bitter?

Nice. You seemed so Professional earlier. Not anymore, apparently. Now it's only one-sided propaganda and personal insults. Do you live in Ukraine? I certainly hope so. I wouldn't want to see you deprived of it's wonderful (in Your mind, I suppose) future.

[Boethius]

Putin might want them, if for nothing else than the area being a buffer zone towards the west. I don't know what the majority of People in Donbass want, but I reckon the best would be do like Crimea, vote to be a part of Russia. Ukraine is a failed state without any hope at all, in Our Lifetime, to come even Close to anything like western countries. Austerity and looting of the land is the future for them. Bright Young Ukrainians will flee if they can. What will be left is all those who cannot flee, cursing the day they cheered for Maidan. Western Companies harvesting all the Natural Resources and leaving ordinary folks in poverty. Donbass would do much better to go to Russia.

Right.  Because millions of EU members are fleeing oppression and economic hardship to move to Russia.
 
BTW, Russia doesn't want Donbas.  It wants it to continue to be a drain on Ukraine.

[Boethius]

The "freedom" that will be allowed in the DNR/LNR

Representatives of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) and the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) have declared that they have no intention of allowing their opponents to participate in elections.

The terrorist leaders are demanding approval rights over legislation in the new constitution of Ukraine regarding local elections in particular areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.

Denis Pushilin, representative of the DNR militants, has declared that political forces with a negative attitude to DNR and LNR will not be allowed to participate in the Donbas elections.

“Political forces that have taken part in aggression or supported aggression against DNR and LNR will not be allowed to participate in elections,” he declared, adding that  “In the future Ukrainian law on elections must reflect the laws of LNR and DNR in the elections for local self-government.  It is mandatory to have the final text approved by the representatives of the republics.”

Earlier, on February 12 in Minsk, at the conclusion of the negotiations of the “Normandy Four” leaders, the representatives of the so-called “Contact Group” on the Donbas war signed the document ” ​A complex of measures to fulfill the Minsk agreements.”
The document was signed by Leonid Kuchma from Ukraine, Heidi Tagliavini from OSCE, Mikhail Zubarov from Russia, and also Alexander Zakharchenko and Igor Plotnitsky from the terrorist DNR and LNR.

The forth point of the document states:

“Launch a dialogue, on day one of the withdrawal (of troops), on modalities of local elections in accordance with Ukrainian legislation and the Law of Ukraine ‘On interim local self-government order in certain areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions’ as well as on the future regime of these areas based on this law.”

http://dt.ua/POLITICS/u-dnr-i-lnr-ne-mayut-namiru-dopuskati-do-miscevih-viboriv-svoyih-suprotivnikiv-164252_.html
 
 

[Boethius]

For those who doubt Russian troops were in Ukraine.  Note, this is from a Russian source -

Sergey Krivenko, member of Russia’s Presidential human rights council, told Russian independent news channel TVRain of a complaint from 20 contract soldiers serving near Murmansk, who were apparently being forced to go on one of the “vacations” Russian officials say their soldiers are having in Ukraine.
 
When Krivenko went to Murmansk oblast to hear the soldiers’ story, they told him of a weird training grounds a hundred kilometers from their base. They were brought there in tented, poorly heated trucks and were “poorly fed.” The soldiers underwent what Krivenko described as “combat shakedown,” preparing to fight as ordinary infantrymen instead of their army professions.
 
According to Krivenko, the soldiers told him of the unit commander’s speech when he announced they would go on a mission to the border region of Rostov, where they could cross the border to “perform battle orders.”

Unable to answer the soldiers’ questions if their mission had any legal basis, the colonel “went off on a patriotic rant: there is war, we need to help, to protect the Russian people dying under Ukrainian bombs,” the human rights activist told. The commander threatened to fire the soldiers, should they refuse to go.
 
The soldiers, though, did just that and told Krivenko they wouldn’t go to Rostov without a written order, although they would prefer to continue their service. On February 9, Krivenko sent a request to the Ministry of Defense, which allegedly dispatched a commission to investigate the event. However, the Ministry couldn’t give TVRain a comment on the issue.
This is not the first case of soldiers from Murmansk being coerced into going to Ukraine: earlier, a local human rights activist Irina Pakchaeva told TVRain of 23 contract rocketeers from Murmansk being sent to the border with Ukraine which, they were told, they could have to cross.

Human rights activists also told TVRain of conscripts being forced to sign contracts so that they could go to fight in Ukraine. The soldiers, apparently, have been declining en masse, which indicates certain problems with the Russian invasion.

The increasingly desperate attempts to coerce soldiers into fighting in Ukraine and silence the NGO's that report on such efforts may be explained by the problems the Russian army faces fighting the covert war in Ukraine. According to a Moscow Times Article, due to recent reforms and shifting to a counter-terrorist doctrine, while capable to field as many as 50,000 men within 24 hours, the Russian army is ill-fitted for a prolonged conflict such as its invasion of Ukraine, which may have been one of the reasons behind Russia agreeing to the Minsk peace talks.

http://tvrain.ru/articles/spch_poprosil_minoborony_proverit_zhaloby_kontraktnikov_na_ustnyj_prikaz_o_komandirovke_k_ukrainskoj_granitse-381929/
 

[The Natural]

Right.  Because millions of EU members are fleeing oppression and economic hardship to move to Russia.

? Think you missed something.
 

BTW, Russia doesn't want Donbas.  It wants it to continue to be a drain on Ukraine.

If it's a drain on Ukraine, how come Kiev don't stop the genocide and war there?
Russia don't want Ukraine to be yet another country for Washington to Control in order to threaten Russia. It's so simple it's difficult for many in the west to understand. Washington is out of Control and have moved NATO to also be out of Control. NATO is just an instrument of Washington, make no mistake about that fact.

Now, the real interesting question in my opinion is if France and Germany have or have not realized and are opposing the fact that Washington is using Europe to weaken Russia.
It is not in the interest of Europe nor Russia, only the madmen in Washington who insist on US hegenomy over the whole of the world. I oppose this, we need a Balance of Power.

[lordtiberius]

more magic thinking

[Boethius]

? Think you missed something.

No, I didn't.  You assert that Ukraine will regret turning to the EU.  I believe you are mistaken, although Ukraine has a long way to go, in terms of getting rid of corruption.  I believe it will take a generation to change that.

If it's a drain on Ukraine, how come Kiev don't stop the genocide and war
there?

I meant before the war.  If you read about Ukraine's economics, you would know that Donbas took more from Ukrainian coffers than it ever contributed.  Its wealth was stolen by oligarchs.

Russia don't want Ukraine to be yet another country for Washington to Control in
order to threaten Russia. It's so simple it's difficult for many in the west to
understand. Washington is out of Control and have moved NATO to also be out of
Control. NATO is just an instrument of Washington, make no mistake about that
fact.

I can't drink that kool aid.  If Washington had wanted in Ukraine in its orbit, that would have occurred when Poland joined the EU.  You dismiss the desire of millions of Ukrainians, who protested on Maidan because they were tired of corruption, and wanted a better life.

Now, the real interesting question in my opinion is if France and Germany
have or have not realized and are opposing the fact that Washington is using
Europe to weaken Russia.

I reject this as a fact.  It is your (misguided) opinion.

It is not in the interest of Europe nor Russia, only the madmen in Washington who insist on US hegenomy over the whole of the world. I oppose this, we need a Balance of Power.

I reject this as well. 

[AkMike]

The Heads of State or Government of the G7 countries issued a joint statement on the situation in Ukraine, which require the implementation of the agreements Minsk and promised to punish those who will not adhere to the ceasefire. Also condemns the illegal annexation of the Crimea and the reported intention to provide financial support to Ukraine on the path of reform.

http://uapress.info/ru/news/show/61902

[lordtiberius]

more magic thinking

[Muzh]

[Brasscasing]

I think Russia's going to try and pull an end run around any possible push back from NATO or the US when this cease fire collapses. The criminals in the Kremlin have threatened to veto every potential UN resolution regarding Ukraine so far now all of a sudden they're asking for UN intervention? Stinks to high heaven...

Russia calls for UN intervention in Ukraine

..."UNITED NATIONS (AP) – Over the past year, the United States and other members of the United Nations Security Council have loudly accused Russia of backing separatists in Ukraine, but the threat of a Russian veto has blocked them from taking action in close to 30 meetings on the crisis.  Now, Russia is asking for their support.   

Russia circulated a surprise draft resolution, obtained Friday by The Associated Press, endorsing the new cease-fire agreement on Ukraine and calling on all parties involved to fully carry it out. U.N. diplomats said the council is expected to meet Sunday to vote on the resolution, just hours after the cease-fire is to take effect at one minute after midnight."...

http://www.nationnews.com/nationnews/news/63522/russia-calls-intervention-ukraine#sthash.NHTjbrWZ.dpuf

Brass

[Изумруд]

If it's a drain on Ukraine, how come Kiev don't stop the genocide and war there?

When you write things like this, it is quite obvious you don't have much of a grasp of what is really happening.  A bit like you calling those in Kiev, Nazis: go check out what happened in Mariupol, Atremivsk, Shastya, Volnovakha and many others before you talk about genocide.  When you've done that, go check out Pavel Gubarev's colourful history.

[The Natural]

No, I didn't.  You assert that Ukraine will regret turning to the EU.  I believe you are mistaken, although Ukraine has a long way to go, in terms of getting rid of corruption.  I believe it will take a generation to change that.
 
I meant before the war.  If you read about Ukraine's economics, you would know that Donbas took more from Ukrainian coffers than it ever contributed.  Its wealth was stolen by oligarchs.
I can't drink that kool aid.  If Washington had wanted in Ukraine in its orbit, that would have occurred when Poland joined the EU.  You dismiss the desire of millions of Ukrainians, who protested on Maidan because they were tired of corruption, and wanted a better life.
 
I reject this as a fact.  It is your (misguided) opinion.
I reject this as well.

Typed a lot and was timed out or whatever. Don't tell me how I feel about that...grrrrrrrr.....

So I'll make it less organized, my reply to you Bo
.

Ukraine's mistake is not it turned to the EU. Some aspects was bought by Washington who's been planning and funding a coup there for many years. Every nation has it's share of potential treasonous elements. They managed to convince many enough to subscribe to the fantasy of European lifestyle. You know it Bo, it will never happen in Our Lifetime.

Corruption? So you think Ukraine will get rid of corruption by the support of the totally corrupt Washington political system? Darn (some have objected to my Language in the past) Washington feeds off of corruption. No senator or presidental candidate ever gets elected without the support (in the millions) by special interests that of course want their value back, in bloody interests.

I understand that millions of Ukrainians watch western TV and want freedom and prosperity like there. (However it's going downhill many European Places too, just ask the Greeks.). Unfortunately they bought into a Deception. Turning on their Russian Brothers in a naive attempt to please their funders, will be their undoing.

But not all ukrainian Ukrainians is agreeing to this, as many of you here will lead the forum to believe. My wife just tonight told me of an old-time collegue who contacted her on Vkontakte and told her how bad Things are in Kiev and that she (my wife-Crimea) was Lucky to now be a part of Russia!

[The Natural]

When you write things like this, it is quite obvious you don't have much of a grasp of what is really happening.  A bit like you calling those in Kiev, Nazis: go check out what happened in Mariupol, Atremivsk, Shastya, Volnovakha and many others before you talk about genocide.  When you've done that, go check out Pavel Gubarev's colourful history.

Hahahahahahahahaha...stop...you're killin' me here...hahahahahahaha

By the way, apart from a fool, who are you, anyway? Don't bother answering, I'm not interrested.

[AkMike]

I'm going to call BS on this "told her how bad Things are in Kiev,"

 I just returned from 2 months there and this is certainly not true. A fabrication at the best and a blatant lie at the worst.

[Изумруд]

Hahahahahahahahaha...stop...you're killin' me here...hahahahahahaha

By the way, apart from a fool, who are you, anyway? Don't bother answering, I'm not interrested.

Unlike you, I watch multiple news sources, including Russian ones.  You're just a typical ignoramus who resorts to insults or threats when they get challenged on the nonsense they write.  What are you gonna do?  Threaten to beat me and everyone else black and blue who challenges you on what you write?  That says everything we need to know about you.

[JayH]

Unlike you, I watch multiple news sources, including Russian ones.  You're just a typical ignoramus who resorts to insults or threats when they get challenged on the nonsense they write.  What are you gonna do?  Threaten to beat me and everyone else black and blue who challenges you on what you write?  That says everything we need to know about you.

If you read a little history here you will see that some insist on posting after they have a skinful!! At the best of times they make zero sense--but pissed-well!!