Russian General in Debaltseve?

[BillyB]

Billy, I think that you realize the statement has less to do with the real expectation of payment for gas, and more to do with creating reasons for continuing to blame Ukraine for Russian aggression.

Yes. The fact Russia makes this statement publically tells me they want to rub it in Ukraine's face rather the main goal being to get paid. Also it's propaganda to make Russia look like the good guys for shipping gas and other materials into rebel held territory and make Ukraine the bad guys for not providing for the citizens needs.


Soldiers in the article below says rebels/Russians let them go. Putin could've killed them all if he wanted to. Putin really wants this ceasefire to work. Slaughtering 8000 retreating soldiers would've definitely ended it. This incident also tells me how much Ukrainian military leadership is lacking. We know the rebels and Russians have better weapons but the Ukrainian military leadership didn't see this coming. Some general should get fired for letting 8000 soldiers get surrounded which put them in a position of serious disadvantage.


Retreat.


Leading Russian newspaper Kommersant describes how Russian troops arrived at Debaltseve not as one division but in small groups of 3 to avoid detection. Is that newspaper is reputable? Probably not to Putin anymore.


Breaking news! Russian troops in Ukraine.

[fathertime]

Russian Prime Minister Medevedev says Ukraine must pay for the gas Russia is shipping into rebel territory. Although gas will help the citizens there, the rebels are benefiting too and there's no guarantees those territories will remain part of Ukraine. Putin to Ukraine "Thanks for agreeing to a peace agreement favorable to Russia and by the way, let's add insult to injury and have you pay for the gas that is going to benefit the guys that kicked your butt."

Kick Ukraine when they're down

It appears Russia is setting up a situation where this land will be separated from Ukraine...after all if Ukraine isn't going to provide basic services or pensions, then Russia has almost no choice, but to help those poor people. 


Fathertime!   

[Boethius]

Russia doesn't want those territories.  They want them to be a drain on Ukraine.

[BillyB]

It appears Russia is setting up a situation where this land will be separated from Ukraine

They will have enough autonomy to answer to Russia without interference from Kiev and send their natural resources to Russia to make Putin richer but still be part of Ukraine to vote and install another Russian puppet president. I doubt Putin will annex that land. If he does, then he's planning to fight for every square inch of Ukraine to get the rest. He doesn't need all Ukraine, he just needs a sizable percentage of regions to have an impact on future presidential elections.

l if Ukraine isn't going to provide basic services or pensions, then Russia has almost no choice, but to help those poor people. 

Part of the peace agreement is that Ukraine must pay for those things. Hard to deliver the mail in a war zone and of course Ukraine doesn't want supplies to get into their enemy's hands.


If Russia didn't get involved in Ukraine, people in the east would have their services and pensions. It would've been better if Putin advertised in Ukraine to explain to the Ukrainian people on why Russia is the better choice and influence their vote in the next election. Putin knows the truth. Most Ukrainians have lived under Russian influence and based on real life experience, they don't like it.


When Putin was finished with Crimea, only then problems in the east started. Putin needs more than just these two regions and voters to impact presidential elections. When Putin is finished securing Luhansk and Donetsk, or maybe before he's finished, you will see other regions getting destabilized by Russia. Their is no civil war there. It's a systematic takeover of regions at the pace of Putin's choosing.


Putin is not only achieving his goals, he's watching the reaction of the West. The reactions have been weak and he may further test NATO by destabilizing one of the Baltic nations. As long as he can sell the lie that Russia isn't invading and it's a civil war and an internal problem, NATO members won't get involved.

[lordtiberius]

Putin is isolated diplomatically.  His friends in the EU want to thaw relations but his "victories" in Ukraine prevent that.  Still think he has made all the right moves?

[mendeleyev]

after all if Ukraine isn't going to provide basic services or pensions, then Russia has almost no choice, but to help those poor people.

Oh dear, Neville. If a neighbor invades your house and pushes your family out, are you going to be the dumb pansy who continues to pay the mortgage and utilities?

Wait, please do not answer that--I'm fearful that I already know the answer.


Frankly, you are woefully out of your league in these arguments. You have absolutely no idea what you are talking about. Sadly, it shows.

Neville, have you ever been to Tver? (Hint: a town in Russia.)

Tver is a Russian town, but was one of those towns that angered Moscow last year when officials went public with requests for Moscow to "invade" Tver and "annex" them. Their point: So many Russian towns are in very bad shape and the people suffer, but Moscow seems to have the money to raid neighbors and scoop up new territory.

You like to have us believe that you "just happened to browse" across something, usually from those who are equally uninformed, so here. Browse this on Tver: http://zyalt.livejournal.com/1041812.html


Neville, have you been to the countryside in Russia? Anywhere in the country? No, I know that you have not--your views unfortunately reveal that ignorance.


I have been to Abkhazia, several times. How about you? I'm guessing that your ignorance of the subject extends to Abkhazia as well, so I'll again "school you" on the subject. Abkhazia is a breakaway province of Georgia (I support their independence by the way), and they received their "freedom" compliments of the 2008 war between Russia and Georgia.

Since Abkhazia has claimed independence, Georgia cut off funding. It would be very stupid for them to continue, don't you think? Russia hasn't exactly been a sugar daddy to Abkhazia over these years, however Moscow has just agreed to provide more funding. The tradeoff? Abkhazia will allow their boys to be inducted into the Russian Army.

Like Stalin, whose favourite country dacha was here, I adore the land and people of Abkhazia. We spend time at the monastery Novy Afon. But this is one of the poorest regions of the FSU. Here is a guide to the beautiful Abkhazia people:




Another one of the poorest is South Ossetia. Hmm, military action also "liberated" this independent region of Georgia. Where is Moscow's money now?

Your introduction to South Ossetia:




Another "frozen conflict" is Transnistria. From your writing I doubt that you have been here, either. So, here is your homework:

[fathertime]

Oh dear, Neville. If a neighbor invades your house and pushes your family out, are you going to be the dumb pansy who continues to pay the mortgage and utilities?

Wait, please do not answer that--I'm fearful that I already know the answer.


Frankly, you are woefully out of your league in these arguments. You have absolutely no idea what you are talking about. Sadly, it shows.

Neville, have you ever been to Tver? (Hint: a town in Russia.)

With all your 'wise' and 'professional' writings, you failed to recognize that the quoted comment wasn't MY viewpoint, as much as I was expressing what perhaps would be the Russian viewpoint in order to solidify their position. 


It is interesting to see your professionalism crack into pieces, and name-calling ensue when another viewpoint, and not an unreasonable one,  is voiced.


No problem, I will take a look at your videos, and likely still hold the same opinion regarding the West's role in the crisis. 


Fathertime!   

[JayH]

Oh dear, Neville. If a neighbor invades your house and pushes your family out, are you going to be the dumb pansy who continues to pay the mortgage and utilities?

I already answered that for you-Neville has another offering to pacify the invaders --     ( and it not mooning!!)

[mendeleyev]

Neville, your viewing of the videos is for your education. No, I didn't post any to change your opinion.

What you continue to do however is dance, by ignoring obvious questions. I understand why as your position do not hold water.

[Doll]

I don't think isolation will occur either...for one, too many other nations have an interest in Russia not being too weak.  They serve as a partial counterweight. 


Fathertime!

Russia is a HUGE market, every country would be glad to cooperate with Russia

[fathertime]

What you continue to do however is dance, by ignoring obvious questions. I understand why as your position do not hold water.

I don't think I've ignored your questions.  Why would I?  I remain comfortable in the position I've staked out thus far.  I think the Western nations are taking the best route they can at this point. 

Russia is a HUGE market, every country would be glad to cooperate with Russia

I think there is enough countries that will cooperate with Russia, that trying to isolate them completely over Ukraine isn't going to work over the longer term.  I do believed that the isolation is harmful, but not a death blow.


Fathertime!   

[Boethius]

Countries cannot prosper without trade with the West and EU. 


BTW, Mendy is right, FT.  Your lack of knowledge of the FSU does you no favours in your commentary.

[fathertime]

Countries cannot prosper without trade with the West and EU. 


BTW, Mendy is right, FT.  Your lack of knowledge of the FSU does you no favours in your commentary.

I don't know if I even agree with that first assertion about countries not prospering without trade from West and EU...going forward at least.  What is needed to 'prosper' according to your model?...the ability to borrow money?  Why can't Russia do fine, and get what it needs from other nations, or in some cases the black market even?   The point is moot in that Russia will not be totally isolated anyway, as many countries don't want that harsh a penalty for the actions. 


  Yes yes, my commentary is all awry according to the 'site experts'.  Although the Western representatives have been behaving as if they agree with it all along....which calls a lot of 'expert' viewpoints/judgments into question here in terms of how this crisis ends. 


Fathertime! 

[Boethius]

I don't know if I even agree with that first assertion about countries not prospering without trade from West and EU...going forward at least.  What is needed to 'prosper' according to your model?...the ability to borrow money?  Why can't Russia do fine, and get what it needs from other nations, or in some cases the black market even?   The point is moot in that Russia will not be totally isolated anyway, as many countries don't want that harsh a penalty for the actions. 


  Yes yes, my commentary is all awry according to the 'site experts'.  Although the Western representatives have been behaving as if they agree with it all along....which calls a lot of 'expert' viewpoints/judgments into question here in terms of how this crisis ends. 


Fathertime!

No, if the "Western experts" agreed with you, half of Ukraine would now be under Russian control, and there would be no sanctions in place.


Russian prosperity is based on trade with the West.  It cannot have prosperity without that.

[fathertime]

Russian prosperity is based on trade with the West.  It cannot have prosperity without that.

And how do you define prosperity?  Things change, Russia may well be able to do fine without the West in the future, although it won't come to that anyway. 

No, if the "Western experts" agreed with you, half of Ukraine would now be under Russian control, and there would be no sanctions in place.

True, at first I wasn't even behind sanctions, but my mind was changed on that issue...as I think there needs to be some resistance and sanctions provide a reasonable balance.  Despite this, a sizable portion of Ukraine may wind up under Russian control anyway.


Fathertime!

[Boethius]

And how do you define prosperity?  Things change, Russia may well be able to do fine without the West in the future, although it won't come to that anyway. 

If the war continues (and there is now proof of Russian troops in Ukraine, printed in a Russian newspaper), there will be further sanctions.  The US and EU leaders are discussing them now.  No, I disagree, Russia cannot be prosperous without trade with the West.  I define "prosperity" as living above subsistence level.

[Doll]

Countries cannot prosper without trade with the West and EU. 

What is" West and EU"?

[fathertime]

If the war continues (and there is now proof of Russian troops in Ukraine, printed in a Russian newspaper), there will be further sanctions.  The US and EU leaders are discussing them now.  No, I disagree, Russia cannot be prosperous without trade with the West.  I define "prosperity" as living above subsistence level.

Ok, fair enough regarding 'prosperity'...yeah there will likely be further sanctions...A lot of wealth and demographics have moved East/South, in the years to come we shall see if the potential isolation has the overwhelming affect you seem to believe it will. 


Fathertime! 

[lordtiberius]

Russian prosperity is based on trade with the West.  It cannot have prosperity without that.

Profound truth.

There are those here even in the pro-Ukrainian camp who purport the Russian Presdient to be a great chess master of strategy.  Yet he has diminished (like no) influence in Ukraine, and diminishing influence among his "allies" Kazahkstan and Belarus and among his client states (Abkhazia, Ossentia and Transnistria). 

yeah, Putin's balls are definitely getting bigger 

[Boethius]

What is" West and EU"?

West -  "Western" Europe, Canada, United States, and countries in their "orbit".


EU - Members of the EU.

[mendeleyev]

 

I think there needs to be some resistance and sanctions provide a reasonable balance.  Despite this, a sizable portion of Ukraine may wind up under Russian control anyway.

On this we agree, somewhat, but I have the advantage of understanding the prevailing winds in the Kremlin. There will be no "sizable portion" of Ukraine in the plan. He needs it, and the knows that he must have it. Period. At this point in time, the West is being tested. There are those of considerable influence within the 20 towers of the fort we call the Moscow Kremlin, who believe that NATO will also waffle when it comes to Latvia and Estonia. I think that after Ukraine is dealt a death blow, attention will turn on two fronts: The two breakaway provinces of Moldova, and on Latvia.

Carving up Moldova will be easy, I think. That country is besieged with increasingly vocal Russian speaking minorities on one hand, and by Romanian nationalists on the other. Putin can create havoc there almost effortlessly. The breakaway regions have held two referendums already, and officially requested to be annexed by Russia. In recent years those requests have been ignored because they bring nothing to the table economically, would be a further drain on the Russian treasury, and most importantly, leaving them in "limbo" creates problems for the larger Moldova proper.

Moscow is intent on three things in that region of Europe:
- Keeping Moldova out of the EU. Moldova does not have any one dominate political party, and the Communist Party with its ties to Moscow, is the largest of the minority parties.
- Keeping Moldova from rejoining Romania, an EU nation.
- Bringing Moldova into the Eurasian Union.

In Latvia, Moscow is already planning on the emergence of protests there by Russian speaking minorities. If unchecked in his conquest for Latvia, Estonia would be next. Lithuania would follow. Russia has transit rights through Lithuania to reach Kaliningrad.

From an economic viewpoint, the sanctions are having an impact. The Kremlin budget is severely stretched, and PM Medvedev's government has chosen to neglect Kaliningrad in order to rebuild Sevastopol and Crimea. The Baltic fleet is in tatters and the Kaliningrad submarine fleet is rusting, not entirely unlike at the end of the collapse of the CCCP. My view on the potential conquest of Lithuania is to watch for any signs of resurrecting Kaliningrad. Kremlin strategy on the modernization of the military is to build up, then deploy military assets. Putin has felt that the Army needed the most urgent upgrades, but the purchase of the French warships (they will go to Sevastopol) is part of his plan to rebuild the Russian Navy in order to project power in the region.

Putin undoubtedly has wet dreams at night with the prospect of controlling an Eurasian trading block that stretches from the Baltics, down to southern Europe, and on to Asia. Part of his Ukraine strategy includes Moldova--it has to. He cannot reach Moldova except via control of Ukraine.

[lordtiberius]

So Mendy, you don't think Putin will destroy all of Ukraine? 

[BillyB]

Countries cannot prosper without trade with the West and EU. 

Prosperity isn't Putin's #1 goal right now. Sanctioned nations won't be prosperous but they can survive and become more dangerous. North Korea and Iran are some examples. One way a nation can increase prosperity temporarily is to take over another nation and steal their resources. The more we apply sanctions, the more Russia will use that option. There's no way Putin will ever give back the territories he's gained if sanctions are our only weapon. Putin isn't dumb. He knew he'd have to face sanctions before he went into Ukraine. He probably was surprised on how weak those sanctions were. If the West allows Ukraine to fall to Russia, in the future the West may accept sham elections and constitutional changes in Ukraine to make what Russia did acceptable so they can get back to business with them.

at first I wasn't even behind sanctions, but my mind was changed on that issue...

Good to see you changing your mind on some issues. Reality is that you're not much different than the people you are debating, it just takes more and continued aggression from Russia to get you to agree to the same solutions. Last year you weren't for sanctions and some people were for sanctions but against military action. You are now for sanctions and those who were against military action last year are for it this year. Everybody is changing their minds. Will our leaders do the same?


If Putin continues a Hitler style march towards more territory, I'm sure you will eventually come to terms that military action is necessary to stop Russia. I still believe putting a larger, more capable army in Putin's face from the beginning may have been the quicker and cheaper way of stopping Putin. Putin is running this show. He gets to decide if there is war or not anyway. Putin doesn't want to lose so he'd probably back off when the odds are not in his favor. As of now, the odds are in his favor and we'll continue to watch him expand his territories with the backing of his people since they are pissed off at the West, not Putin, for the sanctions.


Over the past few months we seen Putin very active in making arms, oil, and nuke reactor deals with nations. Those deal are public knowledge. Just think about what Putin talks behind closed doors with those leaders. His actions are troubling. Fathertime, the issue at hand is more than just Ukraine. Putin has a desire to end your way of life by destabilizing your world besides Ukraine's. If we don't take a stand, he may succeed.

Carving up Moldova will be easy, I think.

I agree. Moldova is watching Russia dismantle Ukraine and is not impressed by the support Ukraine is getting from the West. Putin may try to bribe the leadership in Moldova first and they may agree to be Putin's puppet instead of watching their nation get destroyed by Russia.

[lordtiberius]

Prosperity isn't Putin's #1 goal right now.

We have noticed.

Sanctioned nations won't be prosperous but they can survive and become more dangerous.

Like Slobodan Milosovic's Serbia?

North Korea and Iran are some [poor] examples.

North Korea is a totalitarian theocracy.  That would be quite a transformation for today's Russia.  Doll might be willing to get on her knees for Saint Vladi, but I doubt even Belvis would especially in light of the SIGNIFICANT logistical and political constraints of hybrid war.

You really don't understand Iran enough to comment on it except to say that Obama is basing himself and our national interest to the Mullah's whims.  That kind of knowledge isn't hard to come by.

One way a nation can increase prosperity temporarily is to take over another nation and steal their resources. The more we apply sanctions, the more Russia will use that option.

That isn't possible given current Russian military doctrine.  Debaltseve is not exactly the Las Vegas of prosperity and neither is Crimea.  In all the stolen territories in the Rooskimir, not one is turning a profit.  More piglets sucking on the Moscow (Siberian) teats.

There's no way Putin will ever give back the territories he's gained if sanctions are our only weapon.

And that is a straw man argument for there is no one on the pro-Ukrainian side of the forum membership who holds that view.

Putin isn't dumb.

yeah, he is Doll smart.  You may marvel at his balls all you want.  But he has taken significant losses to his prestige and credibility.  When you have to go to Hungary or Egypt for the photo-op, you aren't on the Kim Jong list of losers but you're getting there.

He knew he'd have to face sanctions before he went into Ukraine. He probably was surprised on how weak those sanctions were. If the West allows Ukraine to fall to Russia, in the future the West may accept sham elections and constitutional changes in Ukraine to make what Russia did acceptable so they can get back to business with them.

The West has filled with Kardasian leaders.  But leaders in democracies, like diapers get replaced.

I agree. Moldova is watching Russia dismantle Ukraine and is not impressed by the support Ukraine is getting from the West. Putin may try to bribe the leadership in Moldova first and they may agree to be Putin's puppet instead of watching their nation get destroyed by Russia.

Wrong. 

The Moldovan government is weak but given the impact of inflation of the Russian Ruble, the Transnitstrian government is weaker.  Logistically, Russia cannot resupply Crimea.  Without Mistrals, how will it re-supply the Transnitstrian garrison?

[Brasscasing]

On this we agree, somewhat, but I have the advantage of understanding the prevailing winds in the Kremlin. There will be no "sizable portion" of Ukraine in the plan. He needs it, and the knows that he must have it. Period. At this point in time, the West is being tested. There are those of considerable influence within the 20 towers of the fort we call the Moscow Kremlin, who believe that NATO will also waffle when it comes to Latvia and Estonia. I think that after Ukraine is dealt a death blow, attention will turn on two fronts: The two breakaway provinces of Moldova, and on Latvia.

Indeed. Yanukovych is already talking of/planning his return to Ukraine...

A Year After Fleeing Ukraine, Yanukovich Speaks of Return

..."MOSCOW — Ousted Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich, who fled to Russia a year ago after being toppled by months of street protests, said he was ready to return to Ukraine if the opportunity arose."...

..."God has left me alive, so it looks like I'm needed for something ... As soon as there is a possibility for me to return, I will return and will do everything I can to make life better in Ukraine. And today, the main task is to stop the war," he told Russian First channel."...

NYTimes

Fundamentally, the problem lies in the fact that the west fails to understand that Putin's Russia is already at war with the EU, Nato and US and has been for over a year.

The free world assumed Putin would fold with sanctions - in effect bringing a knife to a gun fight. Putin had already factored in sanctions in his war plan and had contingencies in place. What may have blind sided him and the Kremlin was the bottom falling out of oil but that alone won't stop him.

The west is fretting over falling stock in Apple iphones, pork and fruit edit: meanwhile Putin's already switched to a war time economy.

Brass