The Struggle For Ukraine

[Trenchcoat]

There were heavy losses for the Ukrainian troops in the Donbas yesterday,and Russian troops are making regular if slow progress using a pincer movement ,so the war may be starting to turn in Russia's favour unfortunately.


The promised Howitzers from the west are crucial if Ukraine is to turn the war in their favour.


The USA,Canada and France are all sending 155 mm Howitzers,which will outgun the 152mm Howitzers the Russians have...with a longer range to strike from,so they can smash the artillery Russia is using to shell the cities and Ukrainian troops.


The huge problem is getting them from Poland to the Donbas,without being hit by air strikes in the open Steppes of east Ukraine during transportation.


Russian has been destroying the connecting train lines for a reason.


They also need to be behind an effective air defence system when being used ,if and when they get there,so air-strikes can't hit them.

That's interesting info CB, not sure where you're getting your info from regards to heavy losses of Ukrainian forces in Donbas yesterday. Most of the stuff on everyday news channels seems to be pointing to somewhat of a stalemate situation. I personally think it would be best for Ukrainians that one side wins out soon as otherwise they're left caught up in between it all and suffering in a conflict going nowhere. I saw too that we've apparently lost a Rambo the other day so you're likely right that Ukraine forces now might be taking a heavy hit.

If Russia take territory permanently then it looks like it will end up as Russian territory. In Kherson it looks like there is going to be a fake referendum for a 'People's Republic' like in Donbas while use of the Russian Rouble will replace the Ukrainian Ghrivna there.

I hope this conflict doesn't last years not just for the Ukrainian people but also it will throw my hopes of getting a woman out there out the door. Even losing this year to it all would be a pia.

[John Gaunt]

“as predicted”?????





most of us support Ukraine and are OK with whatever sacrifices it takes to defeat fascism
both in WWII and now

of course, there’s gonna be the little “Lord Haw Haws”  but they’ll get theirs in the end, just like he did
what a sad pathetic little man you are to cheer on the massive slaughter of innocent people in what can only be described as an act of genocide

Spot on.

[Jumper1]

I don't agree that the regions would, because of the cities, vote to join Russia.  I think the vote would split along ethnic lines, and in both regions, Ukrainians are a majority.  Donetsk is the only city with a majority Russian population, and Luhansk is almost evenly split.

I worded ot poorly,
It was intended only as example. And as a question to how you felt the local population was spilt.

I agree completely, as from what I can tell even after a large exodus the last 8.years the general.region was pro Ukraine overall,with more specific pockets of pro Russians within it.

[Jumper1]

Rwd123

 When has Transnistria NOT had russian troops present?

Their existence was acquired by russian troops defeating moldovian troops.
The bulk of the regions economy is merely funds poured in by Russia annually.

There has always been a russian battalion stationed there permanently.

Ukrainian territorial defense blew key bridges day 2 of this conflict to slow any russian troops that wanted to join in on this from there.

There are roughly.8 battalions there currently , pray tell why havnt they been used?

The entire reason for Russia to support the region is the logistical and strategic location.
Yet its remained unused.


If Moldova gets froggy to take it back as it is sfterall stoll Moldova, not Russia ?

Maybe they see signs nato will.help in supplies ,training?

 

[Patagonie]

There were heavy losses for the Ukrainian troops in the Donbas yesterday,and Russian troops are making regular if slow progress using a pincer movement ,so the war may be starting to turn in Russia's favour unfortunately.


The promised Howitzers from the west are crucial if Ukraine is to turn the war in their favour.


The USA,Canada and France are all sending 155 mm Howitzers,which will outgun the 152mm Howitzers the Russians have...with a longer range to strike from,so they can smash the artillery Russia is using to shell the cities and Ukrainian troops.


The huge problem is getting them from Poland to the Donbas,without being hit by air strikes in the open Steppes of east Ukraine during transportation.


Russian has been destroying the connecting train lines for a reason.


They also need to be behind an effective air defence system when being used ,if and when they get there,so air-strikes can't hit them.

That's correct. The turning point would be when the pincer, the encirclement will be completed.
But for the moment we are far from this.
Losses are rising among Ukrainian soldiers and that's normal in an open space. 
 
The Russian Federation has lost its strategic initiative and the level of attrition is narrowing day by day in its tactical initiative.
I suppose they want to trade the Ukrainian territory they have seized for political gains.
 
 
 
Regarding artillery, technically the Russian Federation has other artillery systems with great range striking. 



 

[krimster2]

Pootin has just played his last hand before he switches to the next stage of escalation
this play is to put General Gerasimov, in charge of the advance at Izium
This would be like the French putting DeGaulle in charge

if this leads to failure, like ALL previous attempts, then Pootin is gonna escalate
either with a major mobilization and/or WMDs

Biden has countered with 33 billion aid package to be voted on by congress soon
The Republican Russian caucus (those close to Trump) is going crazy over this, echoing Russian propaganda talking points

[Chelseaboy]

Another huge fire in Russia.


The Gres-2 Power Station in Sakhalin is in flames.


This of course is the region where Russia has been forcibly taking Ukrainians to filtration camps.


Coincidence ?


I think not.


The pattern continues 

[Chelseaboy]

Disastrous day for Russia's military in Ukraine yesterday..huge losses reported in the east.

Reports that Ukraine has managed to get the first Units of 155mm precision targeting Howitzers out there ..with devastating consequences for the Orcs armour...sounds like carnage.

[krimster2]

Russians tell me "something big" is going to happen, but they don't know what...
Russian "elitny" are panic buying...

[Grumpy]

 The Russians are getting quite bold in their thieving. In addition to household appliances, they have been looting paintings and other cultural artifacts from museums, and even the grain from farmers bins. Imagine just driving your truck over and loading up whatever you want and taking it home to resell. This is not all the Russian army (although they steal plenty)  but ordinary Russians showing up to take whatever the military hasn't destroyed or taken already. 

[ML]

I read (but don't remember the details) that some 'oblast' (or some such) in Russia passed law (resolution) that they are entitled to go take grain from Kherson region.

Echo's from Holodomor !!

[krimster2]

barefoot Russians on balalaikas, all singing

gimme s'more of that ole fashioned holodomor
if it's good enuff for moy dadooska, it's good enuff fer me
yeeee-haaaaa!

update: Russians say Kapootin is gonna drop the "special military operation" and declare war on Ukraine and go for total military mobilization
i'm guessing aroud Victory day

[Grumpy]

[Chelseaboy]

barefoot Russians on balalaikas, all singing

gimme s'more of that ole fashioned holodomor
if it's good enuff for moy dadooska, it's good enuff fer me
yeeee-haaaaa!

update: Russians say Kapootin is gonna drop the "special military operation" and declare war on Ukraine and go for total military mobilization
i'm guessing aroud Victory day

18 Year olds and up were being called up from yesterday in St Petersburg.


More cannon fodder for Putlers vanity.

[krimster2]

will NATO also have to mobilize?
how could they deal with 1-2 million Russian soldiers on their borders without a full mobilization in response?

[krimster2]

“the signs” are there to indicate that Pootin is about to declare war on Ukraine!
The first step of this will be to declare a full military mobilization to eventually saturate Ukraine with Russian canon fodder, this will take some time to ramp up...

however, a war declaration will go well beyond just this
I would expect travel restrictions both internal and external
more internet/communication restrictions
maybe martial law internally
shifting resources from the civilian economy to the military leading to shortages
the million or so Ukrainians who live in Russia, may become subject to some form of “special treatment”

I don’t know what action he will take against “unfriendly countries” but I’d expect that to ramp up as well

we don’t have WWIII yet, but we’re gonna be close enough to see it without binoculars

[Grumpy]

[Patagonie]

“the signs” are there to indicate that Pootin is about to declare war on Ukraine!
The first step of this will be to declare a full military mobilization to eventually saturate Ukraine with Russian canon fodder, this will take some time to ramp up...

however, a war declaration will go well beyond just this
I would expect travel restrictions both internal and external
more internet/communication restrictions
maybe martial law internally
shifting resources from the civilian economy to the military leading to shortages
the million or so Ukrainians who live in Russia, may become subject to some form of “special treatment”

I don’t know what action he will take against “unfriendly countries” but I’d expect that to ramp up as well

we don’t have WWIII yet, but we’re gonna be close enough to see it without binoculars

By voting a martial law he can send the conscripts to the front, which will save his problem momentarily,120000 additional soldiers will therefore be available. If I were Poutine I will do it.
And martial law could be used internally to better control the Russian Federation from the inside.
Very easy.

[Chelseaboy]

Yet another Russian Orc General killed in Ukraine yesterday apparently.


Major General Andrei Simonov 2nd Combined Arms Army was reportedly killed by Artillery fire in a command post near Izyum...along with around 100 Orcs.


Over 30 Military vehicles also destroyed.


The strike has been shown on the main tv news networks BBC and CNN this morning.


In other news some of you may have seen a pro-Russian Chechen Commander being killed whilst making a video post on social media.


For those that haven't ,he was filming himself ,with his fellow Orcs walking alongside him,talking about having a good day with just one of his mob wounded,when 16 seconds in they were actually blown up on film.


Seems they were geolocated by his social media post on film and then hit by precision 155mm Howitzer fire...whilst other speculation is that he stepped on a mine.

[krimster2]

"By voting a martial law he can send the conscripts to the front, which will save his problem momentarily,120000 additional soldiers will therefore be available. If I were Poutine I will do it.
And martial law could be used internally to better control the Russian Federation from the inside.
Very easy."



if Pootin is going to escalate because of a miscalculation about Ukraine, what happens if his escalation also becomes a miscalculation?

Pootin seems like an abvious example of the "Peter Principle"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_principle

"The Peter principle is a concept in management developed by Laurence J. Peter, which observes that people in a hierarchy tend to rise to "a level of respective incompetence: employees are promoted based on their success in previous jobs until they reach a level at which they are no longer competent, as skills in one job do not necessarily translate to another."

in all the books on game theory I've read, they ALL say that commiting to a course of "maximum risk" is ALWAYS a bad strategy for winning, this is one of the fundamentals of the field

[krimster2]

Putin's chief of staff Valery Gerasimov is 'wounded by shrapnel after being sent to Ukraine by Russian president to secure victory

I mentioned him a couple of days ago

This guy was Putin’s last hope, looks like he was tracked by US spy agencies and his position given to Ukrainian artillery

he was one of three people in Russia to have the nuclear codes
it looks like he was hit on almost his first day in Ukraine

I’m guessing that Putin will declare war on Ukraine sometime around Victory day, since Gerasimov was his “hail Mary” pass

so the dial on the war is gonna get turned up to maximum by summertime

[Boethius]

Do you believe he was merely injured, or that he’s dead?

[ML]

Do you believe he was merely injured, or that he’s dead?

One report has him climbing unassisted up steps to airplane to leave Belgorod.

[krimster2]

unclear what his status is, it was his first day in Ukraine!!!
I never believe anything related to Russians until it is denied by the Kremlin
so I'll wait until a kremlin spokesperson says he's resting somewhere on vacation

[Grumpy]

    Vladimir Putin's top military commander has been flown out of the war zone with shrapnel wounds after being to sent to Ukraine by the Russian president to secure victory, a former Russian internal affairs minister has claimed.

    Valery Gerasimov, the chief of staff of the Russian army, was today wounded in Izyum in Ukraine's Kharviv region, which has been at the centre of intense fighting since Russia's invasion….

    An unofficial Russian source reported that Gerasimov sustained 'a shrapnel wound in the upper third of the right leg without a bone fracture.

    'The shard was removed - there is no danger to life,' he said.

    But Gerasimov's injury was severe enough to have him flown away from the frontlines and back to Russia to undergo further treatment, marking another embarrassing defeat for Putin's forces.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10772727/Putins-military-commander-Valery-Gerasimov-wounded-forced-evacuate-war-zone.htm


http://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukraine-says-russia-army-top-general-wounded-in-command-post-strike-dozens-killed.html