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Author Topic: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)  (Read 69090 times)

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Offline Confederate

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1800 on: October 14, 2020, 10:43:56 AM »
I have mentioned the tradeoff between lockdown and the economy. 

IMF yesterday released its latest information about growth projections.

The projected decline in economic growth for the year 2020 among the advanced economies is  as follows: 

United States         -4.3%
Japan                    -5.3%
Germany               -6.0%
Canada                 -7.1%
United Kingdom     -9.8%
France                  - 9.8%
Italy                    -10.6%
Spain                   -12.8%
       
Economists frequently do cost-benefit analysis about the ratio of cost to lives saved.  It seems insensitive, yet it is a frequently cited measurement.  One can see the tradeoff. 

BTW, the one economy that did not decline is China, growing at 1.9% in 2020.

Japan also did not do lockdowns.

Where are the stats for Sweden?
War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength.
George Orwell 1984

Online Gator

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1801 on: October 14, 2020, 11:30:29 AM »

Where are the stats for Sweden?

Small economy, not listed with the major economies.    Probably in the IMF report.  I read only the news release. 

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1802 on: October 14, 2020, 11:41:14 AM »
Where are the stats for Sweden?



Here are all the nations. The only major economies among 1st world nations that are predicted to have less economic damage than America are Taiwan, South Korea, and Australia.


http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD
Do your part to limit the spread of COVID-19

Offline msmob

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1803 on: October 14, 2020, 01:18:12 PM »
Japan also did not do lockdowns.

YES, they did ...

Where are the stats for Sweden?

Rising fast .. their rates the same as the UK's in the last two days ( proportionally)

Finland locked down and saw it's QTR2 output fall more than 2 percent less than Sweden ..

Online Gator

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1804 on: October 14, 2020, 01:30:47 PM »
Rising fast .. their rates the same as the UK's in the last two days ( proportionally)

Confederate asked about IMF's projection of  economic decline (the subject of what he quoted), specifically  for Sweden.  "Rates?"   Rate of COVID infections was not mentioned by IMF.

Quote
Finland locked down and saw it's QTR2 output fall more than 2 percent less than Sweden ..

I believe something like this is what Confederate asked about. 

BTW, Finland vs. Sweden is like South Carolina vs. Michigan. 

Offline msmob

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1805 on: October 14, 2020, 02:08:47 PM »
Confederate asked about IMF's projection of  economic decline (the subject of what he quoted), specifically  for Sweden.  "Rates?"   Rate of COVID infections was not mentioned by IMF.

My 'bad' .. I simply read the title of the thread and assumed we'd be talking COVID not economies

BTW, Finland vs. Sweden is like South Carolina vs. Michigan.

Hardly,

FI / S are neighbouring nations sharing many similar facets - S.Carolina and Michigan are indeed diverse ;)

Fact is Sweden did not lockdown, killed more citizens AND suffered a worse economic downturn that FI ... S relies on other nations for trade as does FI






Online Gator

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1806 on: October 14, 2020, 02:24:54 PM »
My 'bad' .. I simply read the title of the thread and assumed we'd be talking COVID not economies

We were talking about the relationship among COVID, its mitigation and the economy.  The three are not independent variables.   



Quote
FI / S are neighbouring nations sharing many similar facets - S.Carolina and Michigan are indeed diverse ;)

I was talking about the comparable size of the economies of these two nations and two states, i. e. none is very large.  FYI, SC and MI both speak the same language.  Seriously, their economies are similar.  The politics and mitigation efforts of both differ. 

Quote
Fact is Sweden did not lockdown, killed more citizens AND suffered a worse economic downturn that FI ... S relies on other nations for trade as does FI

Swedes make fun of the Finns as not being smart.  How about other Nordic countries?   How does Sweden compare with UK, etc. based on population?

Offline msmob

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1807 on: October 14, 2020, 02:35:54 PM »
We were talking about the relationship among COVID, its mitigation and the economy.  The three are not independent variables.   

Indeed, but it was my 'bad' not checking the actual context ..
 You corrected me ;)

I was talking about the comparable size of the economies of these two nations and two states, i. e. none is very large.  FYI, SC and MI both speak the same language.  Seriously, their economies are similar.  The mitigation efforts of both differ. 

Swedes make fun of the Finns as not being smart.  How about other Nordic countries?   How does Sweden compare with UK, etc. based on population?

Sweden has previously 'controlled' the Finns ...not sure if that makes 'em smarter, having 'let them' leave..!

FI has nearly half the population, but they are both net exporters, had similar GDP per capita and low inflation rates in 2019.

Sweden had TEN times the death rate of Finland ( and Norway) to COVID as of August '20 ...and SIX times that of her neighbour to the south..Denmark


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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1808 on: October 14, 2020, 04:02:37 PM »
Confederate asked about IMF's projection of  economic decline (the subject of what he quoted), specifically  for Sweden.  "Rates?"   Rate of COVID infections was not mentioned by IMF.

I believe something like this is what Confederate asked about. 

BTW, Finland vs. Sweden is like South Carolina vs. Michigan.

Notice how he jumps into a thread without reading what's above, doesn't bother to get the context correct, posts a bunch of nonsense and then continues to argue nonsense?

The guy is a complete waste of time.

Discussing stuff with a brick would be more productive.

[Note from AnonMod - This post remains visible in order to maintain existing thread context and as an example of how NOT to reply to posts]
« Last Edit: October 15, 2020, 03:07:04 AM by AnonMod »
War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength.
George Orwell 1984

Offline Confederate

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War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength.
George Orwell 1984

Online Gator

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1810 on: October 14, 2020, 05:07:29 PM »
Notice how he jumps into a thread without reading what's above, doesn't bother to get the context correct, posts a bunch of nonsense and then continues to argue nonsense?

The guy is a complete waste of time.


I consider it an honest mistake, albeit born from his style to post quickly.  And I admire the fact that he has committed himself to protecting his mother, forcing a long and continuing separation from his new FSU bride.

I must also recognize Moby is not not as ridiculous as those days when I found him ... disingenuous, the kindest term I can think of.  And he does introduce some information that we would otherwise miss.  I prefer to be fully informed before declaring some liberal concept is wrong.   ;D

None of us are perfect.   After the RWD moderation campaign that enforced you and me plus Moby and others to follow RWD ToS, hopefully Confederate  you find RWD a better place for exchanging news, analysis and opinions.  I do. 

It took a lot of work and time by the moderators to improve the place.  So lets keep trying for civility. 

Online BillyB

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1811 on: October 14, 2020, 05:23:24 PM »
Sweden now a Coronavirus success story.

Editorial

http://www.reviewjournal.com/opinion/editorials/editorial-sweden-now-a-coronavirus-success-story-2141207/


Sweden did take steps to slow the spread of the virus but not as much as other nations. They are not too far behind dead per million as the USA but they are taking a bigger hit on the economy than America. Keep in mind, Sweden has less people than New York city and 11% more land than California. If they had to endure some of the conditions we face and had a much higher percentage of Blacks and Hispanics in their population, they may have been much worse off.
Do your part to limit the spread of COVID-19

Offline Confederate

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1812 on: October 14, 2020, 06:30:47 PM »
Gator,
I admire your optimism.  ;)
War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength.
George Orwell 1984

Offline BC

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1813 on: October 15, 2020, 12:15:08 AM »

It took a lot of work and time by the moderators to improve the place.  So lets keep trying for civility.

A reminder (even to myself)

Borrowed from MSN, these guidelines should be helpful as a reference source:

  • Recognize a persons right to advocate ideas that are different from your own
  • Discuss policies, issues and ideas, not people - and especially not individual RWD members
  • Disagree without being disagreeable
  • Use civil and helpful, not hurtful language (such as name-calling)
  • Respectfully respond to differing points of view
  • When unsure of what another poster means by what they have written, ask for clarification
  • Realize that what you write and what people understand you have written may be different. Be patient and explain yourself again if other posters misinterpret your meaning - particularly here at RWD where members have a variety of native languages, yet are doing their best to communicate in the common language of American English
  • Recognize that sometimes people can and must agree to disagree
  • If you are not sure what you are about to say is civil, find another way to say it or let it go
  • Reliance on labels for groups of people is often the first step toward the negative. Whenever possible, avoid them. They rarely add to the quality of any discussion
  • Put yourself in the other person's shoes as best as possible, to see things from a different perspective - theirs
  • Give an additional benefit of doubt to a person whose first language is not English

Any others you would like to see added to the list?

- Dan

Offline msmob

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1814 on: October 15, 2020, 02:55:26 AM »
quoting Dan:

"Give an additional benefit of doubt to a person whose first language is not English"

I try and bear this in mind when dealing with my cousins across the pond.;)

Thanks for your kind words, Gator. I DID jump in too, soon.

As for Sweden, it DID go for heard immunity and this HAS come out via the Finnish end, as the Swedish end 'lost' emails. The officials and scientist responsible should be booted out.

It was a disaster and numbers over the last few days are proportionally the same as the UK.. Nothing to be 'proud' of.

'Herd immunity'? Why are only 13% of Swedes in Stockholm showing  'antibodies' present?






Offline Rosco

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1815 on: October 15, 2020, 07:41:38 AM »
Sweden is a success. Here's some key facts about the country that didn't lock down.

Population - 10.23 million
Covid deaths - 5,910
Deaths 70+ - 5247
Deaths under 50 - 76

0.05% of Swedes have died with covid according to the statistics. Take out the care homes (which should have been better protected) and remove those who had multiple health problems, were critical from other illness or died with covid as opposed from covid and we're literally talking penny numbers. Claims of Sweden being a failure and a catastrophe is a great headline but look at the numbers and its relativity.

This is no reason to shut down a country and wreck the economy. Silly stuff like comparing Sweden to Finland Q2 is desperate and their economic growth for Q4/2021 is better than almost every other country. Using data from a selected short period to back up an argument is disingenuous. Swedens economy will naturally suffer more because its a larger exporter and its customers were shut....pretty simple stuff.

As of today there are less excess deaths in Sweden than there was last year and less people are dying daily compared to last year. Sweden is also on track to having fewer die this year than almost any other over the last 10 years.

People need to look at the facts before making ridiculous statements based on political ideology and emotion. Compare Sweden with Sweden, not some other country that's totally different to it. Google is your friend and I wish we'd done the same in the UK.

Social distance, wash hands, wear masks and take precautions. Protect the vulnerable, shield the weak and support national health care but FFS the rest of us can just get on with it.

http://emanuelkarlsten.se/number-of-deaths-in-sweden-during-the-pandemic-compared-to-previous-years-mortality/
http://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/

Offline msmob

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1816 on: October 15, 2020, 09:59:42 AM »
Sweden is a success. Here's some key facts about the country that didn't lock down.

Population - 10.23 million
Covid deaths - 5,910
Deaths 70+ - 5247
Deaths under 50 - 76

Rosco,  Finland and Norway had TEN times less deaths and Denmark 6 times less  .. THEY locked down

THAT is less unsuccessful than Sweden



Silly stuff like comparing Sweden to Finland Q2 is desperate and their economic growth for Q4/2021 is better than almost every other country.

We all await Q3 results for 2020


Using data from a selected short period to back up an argument is disingenuous.

I highlighted the current facts - do you disagree with the numbers  ?

Swedens economy will naturally suffer more because its a larger exporter and its customers were shut....pretty simple stuff.

They are BOTH net exporters ...Finland's clients also mostly locked down.

As of today there are less excess deaths in Sweden than there was last year and less people are dying daily compared to last year. Sweden is also on track to having fewer die this year than almost any other over the last 10 years.

That is the case with many nations, currently and some folks are asking " why the need to have special measures" as deaths are less.

I watched Macron on France24 and he articulated a perfect riposte to such a question... "the numbers being hospitalised are up and 'we' know better how to treat folk, but these cases take up resources for people with other ailments. It is our duty as citizens to behave responsibly"

People need to look at the facts before making ridiculous statements based on political ideology and emotion.

Quite


« Last Edit: October 15, 2020, 11:46:09 AM by msmob »

Online BillyB

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1817 on: October 15, 2020, 11:05:34 AM »
Finland and Norway had TEN times less deaths and Denmark 6 times less  .. THEY locked down


Those three nations also had less economic damage than Sweden

http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD

In the battle for which nation got it right, we should have learned by now one nation's solution won't work for all.
Do your part to limit the spread of COVID-19

Offline msmob

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1818 on: October 15, 2020, 11:47:49 AM »
Those three nations also had less economic damage than Sweden

http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD

Thank you Billy!  Did you mean to reinforce my point ? )

In the battle for which nation got it right, we should have learned by now one nation's solution won't work for all.

Some of us learnt that 'heard immunity' is a myth, surely ?

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1819 on: October 15, 2020, 01:30:20 PM »
Rosco,  Finland and Norway had TEN times less deaths and Denmark 6 times less  .. THEY locked down

THAT is less unsuccessful than Sweden



We all await Q3 results for 2020


I highlighted the current facts - do you disagree with the numbers  ?

They are BOTH net exporters ...Finland's clients also mostly locked down.

That is the case with many nations, currently and some folks are asking " why the need to have special measures" as deaths are less.

I watched Macron on France24 and he articulated a perfect riposte to such a question... "the numbers being hospitalised are up and 'we' know better how to treat folk, but these cases take up resources for people with other ailments. It is our duty as citizens to behave responsibly"

Quite

Moby, you're again trying to shift the discussion.

I said - "Using data from a selected short period to back up an argument is disingenuous."

You answered me with - "I highlighted the current facts - do you disagree with the numbers  ?"

I mean what am I supposed to do with that? Clearly I'm not disagreeing with the numbers. I disagree with using data over a extremely short period of time, to justify an argument on a macroscopic scale. It's disingenuous.

I've not once said that Sweden beat covid. In fact I'm not saying that everyone should do as they have. I'm saying that if you dig into the numbers, I believe the Swedish situation is better than some are trying to sell and one I'd rather have given the social unrest and excess death migration, the rest of us are fighting today.

And Billy is right in terms of the battle of who got it right. Using Finland or Norway but not Belgium as a barometer only serves to disingenuously add weight to ones argument. That's why I said look at the data and compare Sweden with Sweden. Did you look at the links I posted where fewer people in Sweden have died in 2020 compared with each of the last 10 years? If you did then the it makes it pretty difficult to suggest Sweden got hit wrong and their advisors need sacked.....

Let's just leave it there whilst its civil.
« Last Edit: October 15, 2020, 03:40:39 PM by AnonMod »

Offline msmob

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1820 on: October 16, 2020, 12:09:29 AM »
Moby, you're again trying to shift the discussion.

I said - "Using data from a selected short period to back up an argument is disingenuous."

You answered me with - "I highlighted the current facts - do you disagree with the numbers  ?"

The time period is getting longer to see the pattern, but you join with some Swedish officials in continued denial


http://uk.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-sweden/swedens-coronavirus-cases-keep-rising-but-official-says-it-is-not-a-second-wave-idUSL8N2H65C8


"State Epidemiologist Anders Tegnell said countries like the Netherlands, France and Spain were experiencing a second wave but this was not the case in Sweden."

Sweden reported 3 new deaths on Thursday, taking the total number of COVID-19 deaths to 5,910. In terms of the overall population, that rate is several times higher than Nordic neighbours, but lower than countries like Spain, Italy and Britain that opted for lockdowns






I've not once said that Sweden beat covid. In fact I'm not saying that everyone should do as they have. I'm saying that if you dig into the numbers, I believe the Swedish situation is better than some are trying to sell and one I'd rather have given the social unrest and excess death migration, the rest of us are fighting today. {/quote]

You are suggesting 'we' should consider the Swedes are doing it 'better' .. the numbers - in direct comparison with all their neighbours, who locked down..suggest otherwise ... the death rate ratio is undeniable

I see no reason to lose civility

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1821 on: October 16, 2020, 05:43:17 AM »
Don't worry.  Vaccines are coming. 

For the first time one of the Warp Speed six vaccine developers has announced a specific timeline. 

Quote
Pfizer Inc. said it could be ready to apply for emergency-use authorization of its Covid-19 vaccine by late November, assuming it receives positive efficacy and safety data from late-stage human trials.
      -  Wall St. Journal

Pharma  companies historically are very cautious about releasing information for drugs under development.  This can only be interpreted as the current Phase 3 trials are yielding good results. 


How does the NY Times report such promising news?

Quote
Pfizer Says It Wont Seek Vaccine Authorization Before Mid-November 

Definition of a "glass half empty."



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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1822 on: October 16, 2020, 06:33:08 AM »
Don't worry.  Vaccines are coming. 
 
 
More 'happy talk' to try to pretend trump and the US are singlehandedly  slaying the virus.   Face facts, no real vaccine is coming anytime soon.  The virus will run wild until it runs it's course.  Some old people may decide staying in their basement is the best option. 

Fathertime!   
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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1823 on: October 16, 2020, 07:31:17 PM »
WOW! Forget excess deaths, I can see how effective such disciplined lockdowns really worked in Europe!

Amazing.
Quote from: msmob
1. Because of 'man', global warming is causing desert and arid areas to suffer long, dry spell.
2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming.
3. N95 mask will choke you dead after 30 min. of use.

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1824 on: October 16, 2020, 07:42:03 PM »
WHAT DOES THE RECENT SURGE OF COVID-19 PORTEND FOR THE US?

Most governments in Europe relaxed their strict lockdowns in midsummer as a step towards returning to normal.   With the cooler weather of Fall, people are moving indoors, and Europe is now experiencing a spike in infections.  The rate of new infections in Europe is as bad as now being experienced in the US, long blamed by Democrats on Trump's mismanagement. 

So what does this mean?  Some possible answers.

1.  This is a preview of what will happen in the US.   The wave of US infections have trailed the timing of Europe's only to exceed Europe's peak magnitude on a population basis.   

2.  Europe and its high population densities will experience even more resurgence.  European national governments seem more reluctant to reimpose tight restrictions, and lockdown fatigue could prompt spotty compliance (as was the case in the US). 

3.  The US and the Europe will reach an endemic level of  infection somewhat higher than the current rate.   This disease continues to be highly transmissible with asymptomatic spreading.  In other words,  we are a long way from natural herd immunity.

4.  New approaches will be attempted such as quarantining the sick and protecting the vulnerable instead of not locking down the economy.    Or will Europe repeat the lockdowns of the Spring, lockdowns that had social and economic costs yet failed to protect.   

5.  Regardless of leadership and mitigation methods this epidemic is not dissipating in the West in 2021 without immunization of the population with an effective, safe vaccine.   



BTW, will Democrats now stop blaming Trump?   Of course not!







 

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Re: Shake that booty!! by Chelseaboy
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