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Author Topic: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)  (Read 7532 times)

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Online msmob

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #200 on: March 04, 2020, 12:47:05 AM »
For those STILL believing a mask 'helps' :

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51729647

A spokesman said Public Health England informed the ASA [ UK's advertising standard's agency ] "that they do not recommend the use of face masks as a means of protection from coronavirus".



Keep washing your hands and try not to touch your face


We'll be back, EU ..and as a certain 'gentleman' couldn't accept my offer to 'bury the hatchet' .. Don't trust a clueless Californian 'business owner' who cannot even quote me, honestly ..

Online BillyB

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #201 on: March 04, 2020, 06:27:14 AM »

Nowhere in that article it said masks don't help. You keep looking for validation to tell people masks don't work. You won't find it so you consider a health organization recommendation your validation.

There's not enough masks to go around so health organizations want to reserve what is available for health care workers and those that are actually sick. Why should health care workers wear a mask if they're not sick? It's easy to figure it out. Because they do help health care workers from getting contracting the virus.
Do your part to limit the spread of COVID-19

Offline GQBlues

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #202 on: March 04, 2020, 08:12:32 AM »
Well, BillyB if you feel 'safer' wearing a respirator for protection, especially living in close proximity with the highest number of covid-19 cases in the country, you should.

Now, if taking CDC's recommendation regarding respirators (face mask), just make sure it's rated as a 95, or better, a 99. Designation shown below from CDC's website:

~ An N-95 respirator is one of nine types of disposable particulate respirators. Particulate respirators are also known as “air-purifying respirators” because they protect by filtering particles out of the air as you breathe. These respirators protect only against particles—not gases or vapors. Since airborne biological agents such as bacteria or viruses are particles, they can be filtered by particulate respirators.

Respirators that filter out at least 95% of airborne particles during “worse case” testing using a “most-penetrating” sized particle are given a 95 rating. Those that filter out at least 99% receive a “99” rating. And those that filter at least 99.97% (essentially 100%) receive a “100” rating.

Respirators in this family are rated as N, R, or P for protection against oils. This rating is important in industry because some industrial oils can degrade the filter performance so it doesn’t filter properly.* Respirators are rated “N,” if they are Not resistant to oil, “R” if somewhat Resistant to oil, and “P” if strongly resistant (oil Proof). Thus, there are nine types of disposable particulate respirators:

N-95, N-99, and N-100; R-95, R-99, and R-100; P-95, P-99, and P-100 ~
« Last Edit: March 04, 2020, 08:17:19 AM by GQBlues »
Quote from: msmob
1. Because of 'man', global warming is causing desert and arid areas to suffer long, dry spell.
2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming.
3. N95 mask will choke you dead after 30 min. of use.

Offline fathertime

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #203 on: March 04, 2020, 08:15:52 AM »
Well, BillyB if you feel 'safer' wearing a respirator for protection, especially living in close proximity with the highest number of covid-19 cases in the country, you should.

Now, if taking CDC's recommendation regarding respirators (face mask), just make sure it's rated as a 95, or better, a 99. Designation shown below from CDC's website:

one of my silly adorable daughters ordered a bunch of the good facemasks online for all of us.   i think it is nice caring gesture.  I don't suspect they will ever get used, and if it comes to that, i think there will be big problems for the nation. 

Fathertime!   
I just happened to be browsing about the internet....

Offline GQBlues

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #204 on: March 04, 2020, 08:43:11 AM »
one of my silly adorable daughters ordered a bunch of the good facemasks online for all of us.   i think it is nice caring gesture.  I don't suspect they will ever get used, and if it comes to that, i think there will be big problems for the nation. 

Fathertime!

Ever heard of a phrase: 'Better to have it and not need it, than need it and not have it'?

I have more than a few in my work SUV at our immediate disposal because these are vital components of our overall safety program (IIPP). Safety glasses, gloves, safety vest, hard hat, boots, etc...
Quote from: msmob
1. Because of 'man', global warming is causing desert and arid areas to suffer long, dry spell.
2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming.
3. N95 mask will choke you dead after 30 min. of use.

Online Gator

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #205 on: March 04, 2020, 10:00:26 AM »

here's my take...

You write a mostly reasonable analysis, so why the emotionally charged introduction "...how many millions do you think would die?  how many millions before civilization completely collapses?"

Quote
covid-19 has a 50% higher R0 or reproducibility rate than this yea's flu virus

This is your only example of understating the situation.  Flu has a R0 ("R nought") of 1.3.   In contrast, COVID-19 in January in China was 2.5, almost 100% higher.  See graph notes: 


http://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/samples/2020/01/DashVirus012820.png

A huge question is what were China's criteria for reporting a COVID-19 infection reflected on the chart.   I would surmise it was only the patients displaying serious symptoms requiring healthcare (supposedly about 20% of the cases).

Quote
the epidemic is entering a new phase in the USA

Yes, the new phase of "community spreading."


Quote
we think that this means that there are about 1,500 hidden unknown carriers of covid-19 in the USA right now

1500 is way too high.  It was inevitable that a few asymptomatic carriers would enter the US undetected.  1500 is what could have happened if Trump had not restricted China travelers in January, even though he was criticized then by some Democrats.   

If we have 1500 "COVID-19 Mary's" we are in deep kaka.  "Typhoid Mary" is a classic epidemiological study case in the early  20th C of a disease outbreak traceable to a single carrier. 

The relatively small number of lab tests performed to date raises doubts about any prediction of the number of asymptomatic carriers.    The now accelerating incidences of testing, coupled with epidemiological research, will provide a more accurate assessment in two weeks.  Check back then.

Quote
we are now in a race with the clock, the disease has established a local reservoir in the USA
the only question is, "how fast is it going to grow"?  ....a linear stage and an exponential stage...

Partially correct. 

The initial phase is referred to as the lag phase.    It soon accelerates to a logarithmic, not exponential phase, if unchecked. This is exactly what happened in January in China at a R0 of 2.5, as shown in the chart I cited above. 

What happened next?  The logarithmic phase diminished as China implemented severe measures to curtail social contact.   This is shown in a second chart from China predicting the then current rate would infect 138 million persons by 20 February; however, the actual number of reported cases of infection today is only 80,000.     

 http://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/samples/2020/01/DashVirusProgression012820b.png

In conclusion,   this disease can be controlled.  One problem in America is our society will not implement quarantine measures as severe as China's.   



Quote
but what happens next October, when the flu season starts up again?
what will the infection rates be then?

COVID-19 will become a normal, hopefully small,  component of our flu season.  A vaccine is two years away given America's safety measures for its development.  Perhaps China, who is not known for its public safety, will develop a vaccine sooner.   An effective  therapeutic drug regimen should occur sooner. 

Meanwhile, be cautious but do not overreact.   It is not doomsday. form a public health standpoint.  Yet, the ripple effect of society's response will create an economic slowdown, perhaps even a recession.  Yuck!

Offline GQBlues

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #206 on: March 04, 2020, 02:02:47 PM »
Billy, if it'll make you feel any better, wifey tells me that her sisters in Germany and Canada just sent her pictures of their respective empty shelves for hand sanitizers. So she went to our drugstores and marts and saw the same thing. Empty shelves. She asked me to go search for it around where I work - same result.

Walmart, Target, CVS, Amazon, etc...pooof! Out of stock.

The shelf for those pocket and smaller sized disinfectant wipes is nearly gone, too.



« Last Edit: March 04, 2020, 02:46:49 PM by GQBlues »
Quote from: msmob
1. Because of 'man', global warming is causing desert and arid areas to suffer long, dry spell.
2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming.
3. N95 mask will choke you dead after 30 min. of use.

Online BillyB

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #207 on: March 04, 2020, 05:22:18 PM »
Well, BillyB if you feel 'safer' wearing a respirator for protection, especially living in close proximity with the highest number of covid-19 cases in the country, you should.


Currently I and my wife do not wear masks but we are altering our behavior and not going out as often. I save the masks I have for when I really need it but masks are important for those who are sick and those who tend to the sick because they work. But there will be Jokers like Moby who go around to government employees who work in public settings and to hospitals telling medical workers their masks don't work. Why do people conclude they are the authority on something after reading the news?

Billy, if it'll make you feel any better, wifey tells me that her sisters in Germany and Canada just sent her pictures of their respective empty shelves for hand sanitizers. So she went to our drugstores and marts and saw the same thing. Empty shelves. She asked me to go search for it around where I work - same result.

Walmart, Target, CVS, Amazon, etc...pooof! Out of stock.

The shelf for those pocket and smaller sized disinfectant wipes is nearly gone, too.


I didn't wait in lines. I bought a bunch of stuff off Amazon and will let them bring it to me. Even Amazon is taking a long time with their food deliveries now. Chances are the overwhelming majority isn't going to experience an epidemic in their cities but those who are prepared now won't have to stand in lines later fighting over crumbs on the shelves.
Do your part to limit the spread of COVID-19

Offline ML

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #208 on: March 04, 2020, 08:51:35 PM »
Two men wearing face masks showed up at local bank today.

The customers and employees were greatly relieved when the men said:

"Don't worry, we are only here to rob you."
Winston Churchill.  “The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.”

Offline fathertime

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #209 on: March 04, 2020, 10:00:29 PM »
Ever heard of a phrase: 'Better to have it and not need it, than need it and not have it'?

I have more than a few in my work SUV at our immediate disposal because these are vital components of our overall safety program (IIPP). Safety glasses, gloves, safety vest, hard hat, boots, etc...

yes, that is a good adage.   i'm rather unprepared myself despite what could come to pass.  i throw myself out in public and just hope for the best.  if i lived with billyb lived I might start to take some more precautions.

Fathertime! 
I just happened to be browsing about the internet....

Online msmob

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #210 on: March 04, 2020, 10:28:08 PM »
But there will be Jokers like Moby who go around to government employees who work in public settings and to hospitals telling medical workers their masks don't work. Why do people conclude they are the authority on something after reading the news?

Because they studied Biology to an advanced  level ( specialising in genetics) and understand .. Gosh these jokers aren't in biz with micro-biologists and retired surgeons ....  We haven't been travelling around parts of Europe and Asia - 'marvelling' at the antics of some govts to 'control' said virus ..?

I'm of the opinion that it's better to get it .. and be done - rather than wait until it might be the health service is over-stretched..

We're not changing our life-style worrying about something that's far less likely to end us than being in a RTA..



 

We'll be back, EU ..and as a certain 'gentleman' couldn't accept my offer to 'bury the hatchet' .. Don't trust a clueless Californian 'business owner' who cannot even quote me, honestly ..

Online BillyB

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #211 on: March 05, 2020, 12:17:10 AM »
Because they studied Biology to an advanced  level ( specialising in genetics) and understand .. Gosh these jokers aren't in biz with micro-biologists and retired surgeons ....  We haven't been travelling around parts of Europe and Asia - 'marvelling' at the antics of some govts to 'control' said virus ..?


You know those guys personally? They must be as nutty as you. Governments are issuing out masks to health care workers who are handling infected patients. Why don't you visit those hospitals and tell them medical professionals the protective gear they're wearing is useless and see what they say?

http://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-03/battling-coronavirus-california-distributing-millions-of-face-masks-to-health-care-providers

http://www.businessinsider.com/us-needs-millions-face-masks-not-very-effective-preventing-coronavirus-2020-2


I'm of the opinion that it's better to get it .. and be done - rather than wait until it might be the health service is over-stretched..


Go get it and you might be done done. Also the virus won't be done with you. You can keep catching it. Rich Chinese are bribing guards to get their families out of quarantined cities. I'm sure you can bribe a guard to get into one of those cities to get your virus.

Today WHO announced the death rate is at 3.4% and higher than previously thought! They were guessing previously? All of a sudden the death rate jumped 70% worldwide! When the virus came out, it was claimed it's not deadlier than the flu which kill .1% of the people it infects. Later this corona virus was thought to kill 2%. Now modern nations are reporting much higher death rates than China to bring up the death rate to 3.4% worldwide which is 34 times deadlier than the flu. I can tell you that is still a low number.

http://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-rate-is-3point4percent-globally-higher-than-previously-thought.html

Today at the John Hopkins website that keeps track of this virus,  reported 2,647,665 infections worldwide for a short time it and then it got changed back into the 90k range. Somebody making an effort to get the truth out? Hacker games?



We're not changing our life-style worrying about something that's far less likely to end us than being in a RTA..


It's people like you that makes it hard to stop the virus. I got a worker who goes to the bar a lot. Kisses and sleeps with various women a lot. I told him to change his behavior if he wants to be around me. Pick a girl and go exclusive with her for a short time.

People don't have to stop living but everybody needs to participate to prevent the virus being spread recklessly. China, South Korea, Italy, and Dubai have closed all schools. Governments expect stupid to happen so they take action. Quit being stupid. Maybe you don't care about your life but at least care about others.
Do your part to limit the spread of COVID-19

Online msmob

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #212 on: March 05, 2020, 12:57:02 AM »
You know those guys personally? They must be as nutty as you.

Must do, they took the same four flights I did .. :rolleyes:  As to who's 'nuts' .. Only one of us is posting about stuff, proving he doesn't understand .


Governments are issuing out masks to health care workers who are handling infected patients. Why don't you visit those hospitals and tell them medical professionals the protective gear they're wearing is useless and see what they say?

http://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-03/battling-coronavirus-california-distributing-millions-of-face-masks-to-health-care-providers

I highlighted in bold the relevant part ... INFECTED PATIENTS ...    Are they wearing them in the street, or when they go off duty ... ?

http://www.businessinsider.com/us-needs-millions-face-masks-not-very-effective-preventing-coronavirus-2020-2

Go get it and you might be done done. Also the virus won't be done with you. You can keep catching it. Rich Chinese are bribing guards to get their families out of quarantined cities. I'm sure you can bribe a guard to get into one of those cities to get your virus.

Today WHO announced the death rate is at 3.4% and higher than previously thought! They were guessing previously? All of a sudden the death rate jumped 70% worldwide! When the virus came out, it was claimed it's not deadlier than the flu which kill .1% of the people it infects. Later this corona virus was thought to kill 2%. Now modern nations are reporting much higher death rates than China to bring up the death rate to 3.4% worldwide which is 34 times deadlier than the flu. I can tell you that is still a low number. 

http://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-rate-is-3point4percent-globally-higher-than-previously-thought.html

*I* can tell that BillyB sucks at stats..  WHO figures ..excl China ( who's figures you do not trust !) 11962 confirmed cases  208 deaths ...  1,7 percent

Many cases of the Virus are so mild - they aren't reported / known to BE a notifiable case.. so the numbers are lower ..



Today at the John Hopkins website that keeps track of this virus,  reported 2,647,665 infections worldwide for a short time it and then it got changed back into the 90k range. Somebody making an effort to get the truth out? Hacker games?

There's another BillyB 'conspiracy theory ' to track down ..   :popcorn:

It's people like you that makes it hard to stop the virus. I got a worker who goes to the bar a lot. Kisses and sleeps with various women a lot. I told him to change his behavior if he wants to be around me. Pick a girl and go exclusive with her for a short time.

It's people like YOU that cause shortages of stuff, through panic buying and ignorance ... Your worker needs to find a new boss

People don't have to stop living but everybody needs to participate to prevent the virus being spread recklessly. China, South Korea, Italy, and Dubai have closed all schools. Governments expect stupid to happen so they take action. Quit being stupid. Maybe you don't care about your life but at least care about others.

Silly BillyB

I  understand there may come a time when our govts may ask us to stop travelling and mixing with large numbers of people..

Italy was the sole EU nation to ban flights to and from China...WAY before their numbers spiked ...   THAT  'worked out well' ..

I'm still pointing out that washing your hands is a FAR better preventative precaution to wearing face masks ..

I'm still pointing out that you're FAR more likely to die from some other cause ..



As to 'reinfection' ... 

http://www.euronews.com/2020/02/27/coronavirus-can-you-catch-covid-19-twice-euronews-answers

Highly unlikely ...





We'll be back, EU ..and as a certain 'gentleman' couldn't accept my offer to 'bury the hatchet' .. Don't trust a clueless Californian 'business owner' who cannot even quote me, honestly ..

Offline fathertime

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #213 on: March 05, 2020, 08:16:20 AM »
as of last night the carona virus has suddenly sprung up a few miles away, walking distance.  I suppose I'll casually stock up a bit on some of the essentials.   
  As a side note, one of the lines of products I have for sale is exercise equipment, over the past few weeks there has been a lot more sales than expected.  I conclude that people are staying out of the gym, and choosing to exercise at home away from other people and the corona virus.   

Fathertime! 
I just happened to be browsing about the internet....

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #214 on: March 05, 2020, 08:44:58 AM »
I highlighted in bold the relevant part ... INFECTED PATIENTS ...    Are they wearing them in the street, or when they go off duty ... ?


So you want to revise your previous statement that masks don't work? Seems like you're acknowledging they will stop the virus when near an infected patient.

Many cases of the Virus are so mild - they aren't reported / known to BE a notifiable case.. so the numbers are lower ..


You think like a Chinese Communist leader. You are willing to include infected people we don't know about to lower the death rate but you fail to included infected dead people we do not know about into the death rate to raise the death rate.

We can calculate death rate with what we do KNOW,  those confirmed recovered and dead. Don't speculate there are more infected and dead out there undetected and will decrease or increase the death rate to help with your narrative on what is actually happening. Nobody knows if they had the flu or corona virus then recovered or died undetected. It's too late to test them.

Right now, Italy reports 107 dead and 276 recovered after a battle with the virus. That's a 28% death rate for them at this moment which means it's 280 times more deadlier than the flu.

The Chinese province of Zhejiang of near the same population as Italy reports 1 dead and 1124 people recovered. .09% death rate which means less people there are dying from this virus than the flu.

Now you can continue to believe the Chinese has some kind of super immune system over Italians but I will continue to state Chinese severely under reports how bad the virus is. So while mortality rates are extremely high in most other nations, the Chinese brings death rate way down since they have the bulk of the cases so WHO now concludes death rate is 3.4%. I trust the Italian numbers more than the Chinese. As the rest of the world increases infections, deaths and recoveries and add more weight to offset the low Chinese death rate, you can expect WHO to revise the death rates even higher.
Do your part to limit the spread of COVID-19

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #215 on: March 05, 2020, 08:50:35 AM »
as of last night the carona virus has suddenly sprung up a few miles away, walking distance.  I suppose I'll casually stock up a bit on some of the essentials.   
  As a side note, one of the lines of products I have for sale is exercise equipment, over the past few weeks there has been a lot more sales than expected.  I conclude that people are staying out of the gym, and choosing to exercise at home away from other people and the corona virus.   

Fathertime!

Hi FT !

We had a case around here weeks ago... the teacher had it...  brought it from SE Asia ..  No one has caught it the school is open again ..  You'll be fine ;)

Took Mum to the local General Practitioners Surgery - she had an ear infection ...  NO staff wearing masks - just lots of WASH YOUR HANDS..




We'll be back, EU ..and as a certain 'gentleman' couldn't accept my offer to 'bury the hatchet' .. Don't trust a clueless Californian 'business owner' who cannot even quote me, honestly ..

Online msmob

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #216 on: March 05, 2020, 09:10:00 AM »
So you want to revise your previous statement that masks don't work? Seems like you're acknowledging they will stop the virus when near an infected patient.
 

Nope. You simply don't understand why masks are worn PERIOD in isolation wards ...STD PRACTICE ...




Right now, Italy reports 107 dead and 276 recovered after a battle with the virus. That's a 28% death rate for them at this moment which means it's 280 times more deadlier than the flu.

WHY are you quoting more bollox, Silly BillyB ?  Those infected is always behind ...

WHO figures for Italy 4th March :


Confirmed cases: 2502, Deaths 80 - that's 3.8 percent





The Chinese province of Zhejiang of near the same population as Italy reports 1 dead and 1124 people recovered. .09% death rate which means less people there are dying from this virus than the flu.


You're not even accurate ... Source WHO Zhejiang    http://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200304-sitrep-44-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=783b4c9d_6



Confirmed cases: 1213


Deaths Confirmed:1

Italy is larger


Now you can continue to believe the Chinese has some kind of super immune system over Italians but I will continue to state Chinese severely under reports how bad the virus is. So while mortality rates are extremely high in most other nations, the Chinese brings death rate way down since they have the bulk of the cases so WHO now concludes death rate is 3.4%. I trust the Italian numbers more than the Chinese. As the rest of the world increases infections, deaths and recoveries and add more weight to offset the low Chinese death rate, you can expect WHO to revise the death rates even higher.

Hubei is more accurately closer to Italy and the figures are:

67332 cases , 2871 deaths - just over 4%


I think the cases reported are seriously UNDER reported ...   some folks won't even know they had it ...



We'll be back, EU ..and as a certain 'gentleman' couldn't accept my offer to 'bury the hatchet' .. Don't trust a clueless Californian 'business owner' who cannot even quote me, honestly ..

Offline fathertime

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #217 on: March 05, 2020, 10:14:21 AM »
Hi FT !

We had a case around here weeks ago... the teacher had it...  brought it from SE Asia ..  No one has caught it the school is open again ..  You'll be fine ;)

Took Mum to the local General Practitioners Surgery - she had an ear infection ...  NO staff wearing masks - just lots of WASH YOUR HANDS..
Hey Mooby! 
A delightful/upbeat movie from the UK was Threads which I'm sure you saw back in the day.  I like the English way of just 'carrying on'.    Either I, or one of kids will go buy our little toilet paper and 'foodstuffs' and lets see how it all plays out.  I've got a nice angry wound to attend to so I'll try to stay behind the computer more.   No mask wearing just yet, and I'm a filthy guy so I won't even wash my hands enough.   

Fathertime! 
I just happened to be browsing about the internet....

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #218 on: March 05, 2020, 06:32:28 PM »
WHO figures for Italy 4th March :

Confirmed cases: 2502, Deaths 80 - that's 3.8 percent


You don't seem to understand how death rates work after talking about it. On the 5th of March, Italy reports 3858 infections, 148 deaths, and 414 recoveries. To calculate death rate, you calculate with those who finished their battle with the virus. 148 deaths vs 414 recoveries means 562 Italians finished their fight with the virus. Since 148 died, it's a 26.3% death rate.

Try this exercise. Since there are still over 3000 Italians fighting for their lives against the virus tell them "I'm collecting data for mortality rates. Did you survive the virus or did you die from this virus?" They would answer "You're an idiot". That is because you are trying to label them into the survivor category or died category when you're not supposed to do that until their fight with the virus is over. Even those who are 5 yo, are sick, dumb, and have dementia would know your question is stupid and it's stupid trying to lump those currently infected into the survivor category to bring down the death rates. Some of those currently infected will be going into the dead pool.

http://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Do your part to limit the spread of COVID-19

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #219 on: March 05, 2020, 07:22:10 PM »
Data on number of cases is suspect because of limited capacity for lab tests.  A couple of sources have said only 500 Americans have been subjected to lab tests.   

Those with a high fever and no respiratory symptoms were probably misdiagnosed as something other than COVID-19 unless confirmed by lab tests. 


Thus, death rate estimates are also suspect.   We will know more in 1-2 weeks.   

 

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #220 on: March 05, 2020, 07:39:32 PM »
Data on number of cases is suspect because of limited capacity for lab tests.  A couple of sources have said only 500 Americans have been subjected to lab tests.   

Those with a high fever and no respiratory symptoms were probably misdiagnosed as something other than COVID-19 unless confirmed by lab tests. 


Thus, death rate estimates are also suspect.   We will know more in 1-2 weeks.   

There's a lot of people that died from this virus that aren't counted too. Their listed cause of death may be pneumonia or flu when the corona virus is to blame. If they were counted, the death rate may hold or go up. There's a lot of stories trying to bring the numbers down so we don't worry but yesterday WHO raised the death rate by 70%. Previously they said it was 2%. Now they say it's 3.4%. They were way off then and they're still way off.

China reports 80k Chinese been infected which means 1 out of 17,325 people in their country got the virus. South Korea reports 6000 infections which means one out of 8578 people in their country got the virus. In a shorter time and with earlier warnings South Korea has double the rate of infections among it's people than China. Since the virus started in China and went undetected longer there than in any country, one would think China would have the highest rate of infections among it's people by far over other nations. They are grossly under reporting infections and deaths. My mom reads news out of Asia and they are burning MASSIVE amounts of bodies. But China reports only 3383 deaths which is nothing for a population of over 1.3 billion. Their crematories should be able to handle a few thousand extra bodies but not true. Crematories are working 24/7 and bodies continue to pile outside the crematories waiting for their turn to burn.
Do your part to limit the spread of COVID-19

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #221 on: March 05, 2020, 10:37:19 PM »
You don't seem to understand

BillyB - when it comes to common sense and arithmetic , you are bereft .. 

I asked you, yesterday, where you sourced your WHO 'statement' re a higher percentage re mortality and you've not responded - other than producing BillyB Bollox data..

A reminder, from a recently retired  NHS theatre nurse ( I studied with her ) as to PERSPECTIVE ..






We'll be back, EU ..and as a certain 'gentleman' couldn't accept my offer to 'bury the hatchet' .. Don't trust a clueless Californian 'business owner' who cannot even quote me, honestly ..

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #222 on: March 05, 2020, 10:59:09 PM »
I asked you, yesterday, where you sourced your WHO 'statement' re a higher percentage re mortality and you've not responded - other than producing BillyB Bollox data..


Google WHO 3.4% and you'll find a lot of news articles including the WHO statement at their own website. Also you participated at the other forum where someone put a news article link with that info. It's easy to find this info, especially when it's handed to you so I ignored your request and just thought you were acting dumb again. You're asking for it again so I now realize you weren't acting.

Do your part to limit the spread of COVID-19

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #223 on: March 06, 2020, 12:51:31 AM »
SillyBillyB,

The 'soundbite factoid' you sought was,
"Globally, about 3.4% of REPORTED COVID-19 cases have died".

http://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---3-march-2020


You 'missed' ...

"Both COVID-19 and influenza cause respiratory disease and spread the same way, via small droplets of fluid from the nose and mouth of someone who is sick.

However, there are some important differences between COVID-19 and influenza.

First, COVID-19 does not transmit as efficiently as influenza, from the data we have so far."

Now..What has he told us today ...?

"The fight against rumours and misinformation is a vital part of the battle against this virus. We rely on you to make sure people have accurate information about the threat they face, and how to protect themselves and others.

Now to the numbers.

There is now a total of 95,265 reported cases of COVID-19 globally, and 3281 deaths. "


"3.4% "

"We see encouraging signs from the Republic of Korea. The number of newly-reported cases appears to be declining, and the cases that are being reported are being identified primarily from known clusters. "


Now let's check WHO.int numbers for today ..

Based on reported cases v Deaths  ..


China = 3.7%
and

the Rest of the World ..1.8%


http://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200305-sitrep-45-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=ed2ba78b_2

Remind me, which poster doesn't 'trust' China's figures ?









« Last Edit: March 06, 2020, 01:07:08 AM by msmob »
We'll be back, EU ..and as a certain 'gentleman' couldn't accept my offer to 'bury the hatchet' .. Don't trust a clueless Californian 'business owner' who cannot even quote me, honestly ..

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #224 on: March 06, 2020, 07:59:44 AM »

Now let's check WHO.int numbers for today ..

Based on reported cases v Deaths  ..

China = 3.7%
and

the Rest of the World ..1.8%

Reported cases isn't death rate. I'm going to take 4 regions of the world with similar populations and compare them. Two regions are known to be more dishonest with what is going on than the others. Two regions are not 1st World nations. Guess which two are being dishonest using today's numbers.

South Korea reports 42 deaths and 135 recoveries

Italy reports 148 deaths and 414 recoveries

Iran reports 124 deaths and 913 recoveries

Chinese province of Zhejiang reports 1 death and 1147 recoveries

http://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Also in a much shorter time and given warning the virus is floating around South Korea, Italy, and Iran all have higher rates of infection among it's population than China who got it first and didn't take action on it right away.

Whatever you do or they report to imply death rate is low, it's BS. The death rate will climb but never to the true number because of dishonest reporting and there are many deaths that doesn't get reported because the bodies were never tested for the virus and thus blame of death will be recorded as influenza or pneumonia.
Do your part to limit the spread of COVID-19

 

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