2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)

[GQBlues]

So far.  One day after your post, your < 20,000 is > 20,000.

Absolutely. It will get even higher. It's the studied progress of the estimated 2-week lag progression of the disease. The death rate at >5% will still register daily counts until the 'critical from 'severe' from 'hospitalization' from 'infection' diminishes. The latter 4 stages however are being noted as on a downward scale.

Estimates ranges from 80-85% of those infected suffer only mild condition. Of the total infection, only >5% are hospitalized. 5% of that number die of complications brought on by, or because of, COVID. Comorbidity is still up for debate since this disease seem to kill those with compromised health condition, or those of advanced ages.

But these numbers are not correct either for no other reason than, so far people only get tested when they show symptoms. If we somehow knew how many are actually 'infected', symptomatic or asymptomatic, then the relevant numbers from hospitalization to death will make these relationship percentages even lower. *Possibly* making this virus a lot less virulent than we have given it credit for.

From CDC

During March 1–30, underlying medical conditions and symptoms at admission were reported through COVID-NET for approximately 180 (12.1%) hospitalized adults (Table); 89.3% had one or more underlying conditions. The most commonly reported were hypertension (49.7%), obesity (48.3%), chronic lung disease (34.6%), diabetes mellitus (28.3%), and cardiovascular disease (27.8%). Among patients aged 18–49 years, obesity was the most prevalent underlying condition, followed by chronic lung disease (primarily asthma) and diabetes mellitus. Among patients aged 50–64 years, obesity was most prevalent, followed by hypertension and diabetes mellitus; and among those aged ≥65 years, hypertension was most prevalent, followed by cardiovascular disease and diabetes mellitus. Among 33 females aged 15–49 years hospitalized with COVID-19, three (9.1%) were pregnant. Among 167 patients with available data, the median interval from symptom onset to admission was 7 days (interquartile range [IQR] = 3–9 days). The most common signs and symptoms at admission included cough (86.1%), fever or chills (85.0%), and shortness of breath (80.0%). Gastrointestinal symptoms were also common; 26.7% had diarrhea, and 24.4% had nausea or vomiting.

If relevant, the H1N1 fatality rate worldwide had a range of 150,000 - 500,000 dead worldwide. BC mentioned in Italy, they're doing (or had started doing) posthumously determining actual cause of death. My point is, current COVID death count may in fact be inflated, or at the least, stands to scrutiny as H1N1.

It's not over.  Its over when we have a vaccine or an effective treatment method.  Until then, we will have an endemic level of COVID-19 just as we have an endemic level of flu.  IMO the endemic level of COVID-19 will cause as many deaths on an annual basis as seasonal flu.   Maybe more deaths, given that COVID is more contagious and the populations most vulnerable to flu and COVID are the same.

The R0 of COVID is currently estimated at 2+. Influenza A and Influenza B is at 1+, but this is with administration of vaccine on an annual basis. Without this vaccine, the infection rate will likely be on the same threshold COVID is. Despite the availability of the vaccine, it still kill thousands of people every year. Covid will not be any different in this regard even IF we develop a vaccine or therapy drug.

If COVID-19 is indeed an endemic disease that will not go away, it means that eventually all of us will become infected.

The only thing I've read so far that may be different with COVID is that it is 'stable'. Studies at this time shows it doesn't mutate as rapidly as the other strains of corona viruses. Will it be endemic? That's almost a guarantee. However, based on the studies I mentioned, it may not be as pervasive as Influenza A/B.   

You are correct.  But there is more.   

Its all about perceived risk rather than actual scientific risk.  Perception of risk is dependent upon 1) history/experience (as you mentioned), 2) whether the encounter is voluntary or involuntary, 3) consequences, 4) the length of time from the encounter to consequences, and 5) public attention.     

For example, some idiots voluntarily smoke tobacco even though tobacco is known to both initiate and promote cancer as well as impair heart health, the two largest causes of death.

Exactly.       

Seasonal flu has been with us for eons.  COVID-19 is brand new.  With regard to flu we voluntarily go about our lives  doing little more than taking a flu vaccine and avoiding obviously sick people.    Is COVID-19  scientifically more virulent than flu in terms of transmissibility and fatality ratio? Somewhat, but I contend not to the degree perceived by the public, a perception exacerbated by  the national attention given to it.  And that is driving public policy.

I completely agree with the bolded part. At present, it seems the more we know about the virus, the more it seems we've over-estimated its virulence judging from the failed models previously presented. It isn't to say this is not of a major concern, but as all the other virulent viruses of the past - this, too will come to pass in the same fashion. Just MHO.

I posted this thought to begin discussion about the biggest issue of today - when/how/what do we need to do and understand to get our societies back to normalcy, or is that even possible given what we know as of today?

Note: The 'post' wasn't posted to give those who falsely think more of themselves, otherwise repeatedly proven to the contrary, another reason to further validate the obvious.

[2tallbill]

Roseland Hospital phlebotomist: 30% of those tested have coronavirus antibody

“A lot of people have high antibodies, which means they had the coronavirus
but they don’t have it anymore and their bodies built the antibodies,”

http://chicagocitywire.com/stories/530092711-roseland-hospital-phlebotomist-30-of-those-tested-have-coronavirus-antibody

[msmob]

Roseland Hospital phlebotomist: 30% of those tested have coronavirus antibody

“A lot of people have high antibodies, which means they had the coronavirus
but they don’t have it anymore and their bodies built the antibodies,”

http://chicagocitywire.com/stories/530092711-roseland-hospital-phlebotomist-30-of-those-tested-have-coronavirus-antibody

OR

1/ There were / are asymptomatic

2/ The tests are faulty

3/ There is some 'suggestion' ... too early to confirm   / that is IS possible to get 'it' again,  (but another mutated strain) ?

http://nypost.com/2020/04/07/51-recovered-coronavirus-patients-test-positive-again-in-south-korea/

There are so many stories flying around...

[BillyB]

At present, it seems the more we know about the virus, the more it seems we've over-estimated its virulence judging from the failed models previously presented. It isn't to say this is not of a major concern, but as all the other virulent viruses of the past - this, too will come to pass in the same fashion. Just MHO.

When America had 6 cases and zero deaths, Trump cut off China. When we had 38 deaths, Trump cut off most of Europe. We are not dealing with the flu. We are dealing with the virus of the century that has a case fatality rate worse than the Spanish flu, the virus of century last century. Most of the models have been wrong simply because we've taken action or we have bad data. It is political suicide for leaders to report bad news so we are seeing a massive amount of underreporting of deaths. With bad data, it's hard to create a good model.

Data and models may not tell the full truth but what we do know is hospitals can handle births, flus, colds, other illnesses and physical injuries of their community. One COVID-19 outbreak overloads hospitals, destroys the medical community and ruins the economy. A few days ago Italy reported 80 doctors dead, 20 nurses dead, and 12,000 medical personnel infected in their 6 week battle with COVID-19. No medical community can sustain those kinds of losses in that short amount of time. It takes years to replace a medical professional. Until a vaccine is created, we must take faster action against outbreaks so they don't overwhelm our medical community. It will save lives but at a cost to our economies.

UK pledges $248 million to WHO and charities.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/uk-pledges-200-million-pounds-in-aid-to-help-stop-second-coronavirus-wave/ar-BB12uzUl?ocid=spartanntp

Singapore has a spike in cases. They are now getting tougher on people who break the rules pertaining to social distancing and masks.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/singapore-gets-stricter-on-enforcement-to-curb-spread-of-virus/ar-BB12tJud?ocid=spartanntp

[msmob]

My point is, current COVID death count may in fact be inflated

When in all likelihood it's WAY down on official figures in most countries, due to:

1/  time ... taken to report

2/ not testing reason for death - esp if patient is old

[msmob]

BillyB doesn't trust China's numbers ...

Who trusts Belarus' reports ?


http://eng.belta.by/society/view/cardiovascular-disease-named-leading-cause-of-death-in-belarus-in-january-march-129689-2020/

10 APRIL 2020, 13:53
Cardiovascular disease named leading cause of death in Belarus in January-March


It MAY even be true .... for now ...

Lukashoudgo and his denial .. 'reports' that Doctors cannot say someone died of 'Korona' .. they 'die' of .... heart failure ...

[ML]

BillyB doesn't trust China's numbers ...

Who trusts Belarus' reports ?


http://eng.belta.by/society/view/cardiovascular-disease-named-leading-cause-of-death-in-belarus-in-january-march-129689-2020/

10 APRIL 2020, 13:53
Cardiovascular disease named leading cause of death in Belarus in January-March


It MAY even be true .... for now ...

Lukashoudgo and his denial .. 'reports' that Doctors cannot say someone died of 'Korona' .. they 'die' of .... heart failure ...

I already reported that relative of my wife's friend, who is MD in Belarus, stated that they are not allowed to put Corona on death certificate as cause of death.

[GQBlues]

When America had 6 cases and zero deaths, Trump cut off China. When we had 38 deaths, Trump cut off most of Europe. We are not dealing with the flu. We are dealing with the virus of the century that has a case fatality rate worse than the Spanish flu, the virus of century last century. Most of the models have been wrong simply because we've taken action or we have bad data. It is political suicide for leaders to report bad news so we are seeing a massive amount of underreporting of deaths. With bad data, it's hard to create a good model.

They also resorted to 'social-spacing' during the 1917-1918 Spanish flu, Billy. Just as with the current 'pandemic', not knowing what it is that's killing us, makes it that much more threatening. Speed driving, smoking, drinking/driving, drug use, etc...also kills a whole lot of us, but people still do it despite knowing the inevitable.

Millions of people still refuse to get their flu shots every year despite knowing the consequence and the hundreds of thousands that die because of the flu every year.

The models were wrong not because of 'bad' data. They were wrong because of 'no' data.

There are NO underreporting of COVID-19 deaths, at least not in the US. We are here in the US so just leave the discussion to 'here'. You're not in China, Italy or Timbuktu so you would have no idea what's going on there. Don't be the site's usual idiots that try and do that.

At this time, if there's a dead person found at home, and that person tested positive of coronavirus - at the present time, the death is classified as 'died of COVID-19'.

Like I keep saying, comorbidity has become a subject of debate in these death rates. The very vast majority who had so far succumb to the condition, a lot of questions are being raised as to whether or not it is accurate to report the cause of death are by COVID-19 considering the underlying health conditions of many of the people who perished. For example, a person with heightened coronary disease who unfortunately contracted COVID, then suffers a heart attack and died. Was it the virus that killed the person, or the person's heart condition that ultimately failed him?

The very vast majority of people who only suffered mild condition also happens to NOT have compromised health conditions. This is currently a debate ongoing with the medical community. You certainly can have your opinion on this matter..

Data and models may not tell the full truth but what we do know is hospitals can handle births, flus, colds, other illnesses and physical injuries of their community. One COVID-19 outbreak overloads hospitals, destroys the medical community and ruins the economy. A few days ago Italy reported 80 doctors dead, 20 nurses dead, and 12,000 medical personnel infected in their 6 week battle with COVID-19. No medical community can sustain those kinds of losses in that short amount of time. It takes years to replace a medical professional. Until a vaccine is created, we must take faster action against outbreaks so they don't overwhelm our medical community. It will save lives but at a cost to our economies.

I don't care about Italy or timbuktu in this discussion. Neither of us are currently in Italy. Again, leave that type of talk to the site's idiots.

As for the rest of your post above, think *surcharge* It's a 'novel virus'. A new disease. One case of hospitalization to one million cases is one to one million hospitalized person ADDED to the current load. So anytime there's an unforeseen disease spread or an epidemic, it will be a burden that can easily surpass any given set contingency. More times than not it is simply because of the 'unknown' nature of the disease that we are prone to over-emphasize the urgency. No one knows the limitations, hence, we tend to change our behaviors and over-react.

You just laid witness to what happened in YOUR state. They never even used FEMA's hospital beds setup in your convention center. Mercy ship in California only had 11 patients on a 1,000 beds available. NY, barely used Comfort, nor did it even needed the 4 field hospitals that were setup to handle the overflow.

The biggest problem with any pandemic/epidemic is people's overly impulsive behavioral reaction to it. Maybe that's just human nature, dunno...

UK pledges $248 million to WHO and charities.

N/A

Singapore has a spike in cases. They are now getting tougher on people who break the rules pertaining to social distancing and masks.

N/A

[GQBlues]

Anyway, to try and continue the discussion about what can we do to try and get our society back in the midst of the current pandemic, there will be protocols many of us will be required to do.

Last Friday, management decided to give everyone a day off, and principal staff convene and met to try and see if we can streamline our company going forward.

Our field staff: We've developed a very comprehensive response programs, including a 1-2-3 buddy-system. We are designating to make sure crews consist of the same people as much as possible. If in the event someone gets relocated or designated to new project location, it will be followed by strict documentation and must be reported and validated by the project foreman and the region's safety personnel. Contact containment.

We are also highlighting, then requesting, employees with known/diagnosed underlying health condition to begin working from home until further notice. This mainly affects the general office personnel. There already are 3 employees that are already working from home as of week's end.

Our safety director will try to obtain information how to either acquire, or get services thereof, from Abbott's Rapid Testing test kits. It is our ultimate objective to get everyone tested sooner than later.

BillyB, what about you folks up there in Washington, what are you guys doing up north?

[Gator]

In the last few days,  COVID-19 is killing 2000 Americans daily. That pace makes it the #1 killer of Americans and would kill 730,000 Americans a year. The flu kills 12,000-62,000 in any given year.

You are comparing a few consecutive days of statistics to years and years of statistics for flu.  And those flu statistics are concentrated each year over about 5 months.  Short interval stats will normalize over time. 
 
This virus is not going away even with mitigation.    So, Billy, how safe is "safe" by your standards?   Zero, 100, 1000 deaths per day?   

[Gator]

The USA ... your curve... is akin to an Atlas Rocket exiting the atmosphere ((

You sound very certain.  Today US cases stand at about 550,000 and deaths at 22,000.   What do you  predict by June 30?   

[msmob]

I already reported that relative of my wife's friend, who is MD in Belarus, stated that they are not allowed to put Corona on death certificate as cause of death.

I know.. sorry, I should have made it clear ..I trust your source...and used it

[msmob]

You sound very certain.  Today US cases stand at about 550,000 and deaths at 22,000.   What do you  predict by June 30?

You are behind us in the curve.. hence the certainty ..no idea of the numbers...

[msmob]

I like your Dr Fauci

Next time you hear 'Trampu' referring to his teams of experts, will a reporter ask .. Why don't you listen to them ?


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52264860

"We make a recommendation," said Dr. Anthony Fauci, when asked by @JakeTapper about reports that he and other top officials called for social distancing in February. "Often the recommendation is taken. Sometimes it's not. But it is what it is. We are where we are right now."

[GQBlues]

Odd thing seen in LA: homeless people wearing face masks. Yes, you have to see one to see the oddity of it.

Bumper sticker: I survived shopping at Ralph's

[BillyB]

Who trusts Belarus' reports ?

I don't trust any numbers from that part of the world. Right now Ukraine said 83 people died. My MIL, a retired doctor, is living in Ivano Frankivsk and talks to doctors there and in that city alone, there are 70 dead from COVID-19. What the doctors report and what politicians report are two different things.

simply because of the 'unknown' nature of the disease that we are prone to over-emphasize the urgency. No one knows the limitations, hence, we tend to change our behaviors and over-react.

I'm not so sure about that the over reacting. China miscalculated big time. They have a habit of not reporting new viruses and plagues and most of the time they contain them but this time they failed. Italy, Spain and NY misjudged the virus by a week or so and it's costing them dearly. France and UK may have misjudged too. Most nations under reporting deaths can claim they didn't misjudge.

BillyB, what about you folks up there in Washington, what are you guys doing up north?

Some construction projects shut down completely and some are going. One project I'm working on is a swimming pool for a city's community center. They decided to restart the project even with the stay at home order. I'm not sure why a swimming pool is essential but I'm pretty sure not a lot of people will attend it's grand opening in a few months. The project is streamlined. Only a few people are allowed outside from each company at a time. Sub contractor meetings are done outside instead of the job shack. Only one person is allowed in a room at any given time. All employees have the option to refuse to work during this crisis.

You are comparing a few consecutive days of statistics to years and years of statistics for flu.  And those flu statistics are concentrated each year over about 5 months.  Short interval stats will normalize over time. 
 
This virus is not going away even with mitigation.    So, Billy, how safe is "safe" by your standards?   Zero, 100, 1000 deaths per day?   

The virus isn't the flu and the spread in hot areas of the world continue. Without action more than 2000 Americans will die everyday and of course it will climb exponentially. We have take action because this is the most dangerous pathogen by far humanity had to deal with in the last 100+ years. This is a fact. We do not need to let the virus run its course to watch how truly dangerous it is so we need to slow it down now. With enough action, the number of deaths will go down but the current action taken is crippling our economy. Herd immunity strategy is not guaranteed since we don't know if we even have an immunity to the virus after acquiring it.

What is safe? The least amount of deaths and suffering as possible. I can't put a number on that yet.  Deaths are going to happen so what course do we take that allows the least amount of deaths and suffering? We have not seen any models showing death and suffering increasing as our economy tanks and unemployment rises. Trump has seen them and he has factored them into his decisions. As we sacrifice our economy to limit the spread, save lives, and ease the burden on the medical community, we will see job losses that can result in increased suicides, starvation, homelessness, riots, crime, and other things that will deteriorate society.

Right now the government has the money to keep people on unemployment, keep businesses from going bankrupt, supply food to low income families, and pay people to stay home. That won't last forever so governments will eventually have to make some hard decisions. Our government would probably be the last government on earth to collapse. A few weeks ago 90 countries applied for loans at the IMF(International Monetary Fund) to use to help their economies while fighting the virus. America has the most money to loan at the IMF so America will may decide the fate of other nations. The destruction of the world's economies do not benefit us. A 20% unemployment rate can't keep us afloat forever and certainly we won't be able to carry half the world for long. As nations collapse, there will be increased chances that war will break out. There are a few leaders in this world that will exploit the weakness of their neighbors. There are many factors that need to be considered to keep deaths and suffering to a minimum. Trump is in the driver's seat. We may never find a vaccine and never beat the virus but Trump still needs to keep the world from coming unglued. He has a monumental load on his shoulders. Even if one doesn't like Trump, they should hope he comes out of this crises a hero. The world's future may be bleak if he fails.

[Gator]

"We make a recommendation," said Dr. Anthony Fauci, when asked by @JakeTapper about reports that he and other top officials called for social distancing in February. "Often the recommendation is taken. Sometimes it's not. But it is what it is. We are where we are right now."

Tony said more than that, much more, knowing that somebody besides an immunologist should answer the question how safe is "safe," especially given the economic and social tradeoffs inherent in such decision making.       

[msmob]

Tony said more than that, much more, knowing that somebody besides an immunologist should answer the question how safe is "safe," especially given the economic and social tradeoffs inherent in such decision making.     

Hopefully, the time will come when those who worried about the economics costs will pay with their jobs.

[Gator]

Hopefully, the time will come when those who worried about the economics costs will pay with their jobs.

Is the question how safe is "safe" a medical or socioeconomic question?

I wonder if those who contend Tony Fauci should be making this decision would also support having a military general and not the President be the Commander-in-Chief.  MacArthur had a superb military record yet was relieved by Truman because he promoted a wider war with China, a war that could become nuclear and lead to WWIII.  Truman's popularity dipped to the lowest in history of any serving President, and he decided not to run for re-election.   

Of course, whether Trump keeps his job depends in part upon public health as well as the economy.   

[BillyB]

I wonder if those who contend Tony Fauci should be making this decision would also support having a military general and not the President be the Commander-in-Chief.  MacArthur had a superb military record yet was relieved by Truman because he promoted a wider war with China, a war that could become nuclear and lead to WWIII.  Truman's popularity dipped to the lowest in history of any serving President, and he decided not to run for re-election.   

I don't know how people felt about Truman back then but MacArthur wanting more action in China and Patton wanted to go into Russia. After WWII, many people were eager for peace but the Communists were very active. If America beat the Soviets and the spread of Communism, would more lives be saved, less suffering in the world, and the world be more peaceful in the end?

People are focused on just the virus but Trump has a bigger job than just the virus and that is to maintain stability and peace around the world while battling the virus.

[msmob]

Is the question how safe is "safe" a medical or socioeconomic question?

Come on, Phil - no need to prove you're being obtuse..

I wonder if those who contend Tony Fauci should be making this decision would also support having a military general and not the President be the Commander-in-Chief.  MacArthur had a superb military record yet was relieved by Truman because he promoted a wider war with China, a war that could become nuclear and lead to WWIII.  Truman's popularity dipped to the lowest in history of any serving President, and he decided not to run for re-election.   

Churchill got 'rewarded' for his WWII role by being booted out of office ..   IF you are asking, "what is the point of having a team of experts around ", as Trmpu' claims ..then IGNORING the advice of Dr Fauci .. you'd HAVE a  point ...

Of course, whether Trump keeps his job depends in part upon public health as well as the economy.

But he's 'running' the show, now ....

[Gator]

If America beat the Soviets and the spread of Communism....

The point is the military equivalent of Tony Fauci should not decide whether to invade the CCCP or Red China.

[Gator]

Come on, Phil - no need to prove you're being obtuse..

Such a response identifies you as the obtuse one.  You are deliberately being slow.  The question of how safe is "safe" is exactly the question, and  the answer will involve tradeoffs.    It is such a perplexing decision that you will not begin to write a substantive answer.   

If we stay in lockdown, as your criticism of Trump suggests, until all leading medical doctors say it is "safe" to go back to work, you will not see SC  until maybe mid-2021.     

IF you are asking, "what is the point of having a team of experts around ", as Trmpu' claims ..then IGNORING the advice of Dr Fauci .. you'd HAVE a  point ...

 

Trump synthesizes the opinions of Fauci and many other scientists, economists, etc.  Trump even listens to people like you (those who look only in the rearview mirror), and he answers their questions , e. g., Jim Acosta at the briefings.   

But he's 'running' the show, now ....

Yes, isn't it great!!!!

[GQBlues]

Churchill got 'rewarded' for his WWII role by being booted out of office ..   IF you are asking, "what is the point of having a team of experts around ", as Trmpu' claims ..then IGNORING the advice of Dr Fauci .. you'd HAVE a  point ...

This, from the guy who believes global warming caused by man is causing long, dry spell in desert areas. I doubt Trump cares about any opinion coming from such characters who harbor such idiotic opinion.

Dr. Fauci, the trumpeted *EXPERT* declared late February that the US have nothing to worry about this pandemic. It changed shortly thereafter. He followed that up by giving us a whole bunch of overly-estimated models which proved way out of the ballpark. He earned a nice fortune cookie for these wonderful declarations so far.

The lastest grim estimate of dead Americans is now adjusted to 60,000! Yeay! That would put us right smack on par with 2017, 2018 seasonal flu death counts.

This is all but over except for the shouting. We scared the bejesus out of the children as it is, so let's just go back to work.

[BC]

This is all but over except for the shouting. We scared the bejesus out of the children as it is, so let's just go back to work.

That's what we said about the Iraq war also a decade ago.  Problem is we didn't have an exit strategy.  Ditto with this virus, so far no exit strategy.  Lemme tell ya, it's very tenacious.

Don't be fooled by the graphs, there are weekend lulls, guess some labs are taking weekends off. Is possible deaths on weekends are underreported as well.  My gut feeling it'll be another 6 weeks before we (in the US) note with confidence a fall in numbers of new infections which is the first indicator that should trend down.  What happens 'afterwards' can be a prolonged process as well along with risks of rebound across the nation.

I think Cuomo said it best.  http://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/04/13/new-york-gov-cuomo-on-coronavirus-i-believe-the-worst-is-over-if-we-continue-to-be-smart.html