2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)

[BC]

Gator,

We’re trying to figure out not what the data says but what the reaction to that data as consumed by individuals might be. But it at least tells us what to look at.

This is nothing more than another attempt to rationalize the problem away, to continue deceiving ourselves with 'early adopters' as our canaries.

If this virus worked just a bit differently, we would 'see' and react much differently.  What if the virus resulted in death one day after exposure whilst maintaining all other factors the same R_t and mortality.  Do you think folks would react differently, and how?

Remember nothing changed, the same amount of deaths, the same risk of infection, -just that the effect was almost immediately felt.

I think most folks would be scared shitless today, still hunkering down voluntarily talking about those stupid folks that are wandering the streets, bars, restaurants, rallies, protests and cinemas.  But alas, we are being lured voluntarily into ignoring the consequences of our actions.

The really deadly part of this virus is that it gives us the chance to bend reality in its favour.  The virus is not that deadly, it is our response or lack thereof that is deadly.  Our own ignorance kills us, not the virus.

A few short months ago, most posters here were aghast at the numbers of dead being reported in Italy.  Heck, the whole world was, giving Italy a big fat red F on the report card. But in the end, despite all our action and inaction, we will be no better off in the US.  Now, we are facing the reality that deaths per million in the US will be the same as Italy or more.

Why is it that with the exact same result, instead of accepting a big red fat F on our report card we now insist on fooling ourselves that it ain't that bad, that those old folks were gonna die anyway, that the virus is not that infectious, that despite increasing numbers of infections we can go back to business as usual.

Please try and help me understand where and why we went so awry, today touting our obvious failure as success.

[2tallbill]

Our own ignorance kills us, not the virus.

Please try and help me understand where and why we went so awry, today touting our obvious failure as success.

We aren't going to abandon capitalism and adopt socialism.
The Socialists and their ineptitude were just as stupid as
various capitalists.

The Left are responsible for just as many deaths as anybody on
the right. Go back and read your last posts, you write as if only
you aren't clueless.

Nobody knows what's going on or what the future will bring that
includes you.

[Gator]

Gator,

This is nothing more than another attempt to rationalize the problem away, to continue deceiving ourselves with 'early adopters' as our canaries.

As an investor, Jim Jubak was not trying to rationalize away the problem.  He was attempting to understand how the public and the government will respond,  and he then will move money accordingly.   Early this year  he hedged with puts and shorts as the market declined.   Now it is more about selecting the correct sectors and staying nimble because things could change quickly as the second wave builds against the reopening movement.   

As Bill posted to you, "Nobody knows what's going on or what the future will bring that
includes you."   There is deep uncertainty everywhere. 

If this virus worked just a bit differently, we would 'see' and react much differently.  What if the virus resulted in death one day after exposure whilst maintaining all other factors the same R_t and mortality.  Do you think folks would react differently, and how?

Whether quick or delayed, death is death.  The common attitude in my circles is an acceptance that this virus will be here until a vaccine is developed.... some time away.  Most people are adhering to the mitigation measures yet venture out of the home for work, necessities and relaxation. 

...despite increasing numbers of infections we can go back to business as usual.

Not me,  Not most.

Please try and help me understand where and why we went so awry, today touting our obvious failure as success.

Success, no.  COVID is a killer, and it still preys amongst us.     Yet, we see progress on many fronts in medical science, government, and everyday life as we reopen step by step.   Any "success" is more like a sense of relief that the pandemic is not the apocalypse envisioned by krimster.  However, no one is thinking life will be normal anytime soon.   

What did you think of Jubak's comment,  "...the key factor n determining how you react to the re-opening is whether or not you know anyone who got sick."  I imagine all of us will eventually know someone got sick.  I have already.  She died. 

Today while golfing we got the news that a country club a few miles away is closed - no employees, no members.  An employee became  very ill.  That news cause us to wince. 

[BC]

Gator,

What did you think of Jubak's comment,  "...the key factor n determining how you react to the re-opening is whether or not you know anyone who got sick."  I imagine all of us will eventually know someone got sick.  I have already.  She died.

Sorry to hear that Gator.  Indeed fear is a big factor in fighting the virus, a healthy fear though.



Now, this is exponentially scary and I do fear for you all in FL and some other states.  Although I know you and your family have been careful, maybe time to increase your level of awareness and precaution.

I consider things here very much 'under control', although I do see many more disregarding some precautions. It's pretty much back to business with very low risk for the moment.  For those at most risk with preconditions etc, at least down here chances of dying from influenza are likely more than dying from Covid.

[Gator]

Now, this is exponentially scary and I do fear for you all in FL and some other states.  Although I know you and your family have been careful, maybe time to increase your level of awareness and precaution.

I delayed responding pending today's report.  The number of new cases continues to accelerate.    A few of our city's pro hockey players have tested positive.  Reporters suggest most of the new infections occur in the under-40 group; however, this may be more opinion than factual because data are not disaggregated sufficiently to determine such. 

City government is becoming more restrictive, e. g., masks are mandatory inside all business establishments rather than some.    Not exponential growth, or at least the exponent is a small number for now.   

[BillyB]

Apparently the 90+ degree weather in Florida isn't slowing the virus.

[msmob]

The Left are responsible for just as many deaths as anybody on
the right.

That might not be the wisest point on which to declare your opponent clueless, Beel !

Fascists are right of most people's centre and they started WWII ..  Or are you now you excluding wars in you deaths 'stats' ?

[BC]

Not exponential growth, or at least the exponent is a small number for now.   

Just remember what we see in the charts today is the evidence of what started a couple of weeks ago.  We could well already be in a period of exponential growth.  Unfortunately by the time we realize such it will be too late to react as the damage will have been done and again we are left to deal with the aftermath.

Over here, we would already be back in hard lockdown.

[msmob]

..and Beel would respond that's the 'socialist way' of dealing with things and need to be educated as to the make up of the Italian govt

[BC]

Nobody knows what's going on or what the future will bring that
includes you.

One can, however, make educated guesses based on the facts and past experiences in hand.  Anything less leans toward denial.

[BC]

..and Beel would respond that's the 'socialist way' of dealing with things.

Misuse of the word socialist of late means anything I don't like or want to hear, too often used by some fringe wavelengths of the political spectrum.  It is a meaningless label, and I tend to ignore it.

As far as economic theories go, via the Fed, the US may well be one of the most socialist countries on the planet right now with large stakes in many private companies, banks, stocks and bonds.

[msmob]

As far as economic theories go, via the Fed, the US may well be one of the most socialist countries on the planet right now with large stakes in many private companies, banks, stocks and bonds.

Same in the UK, this pandemic has changed the game ..

[GQBlues]

One can, however, make educated guesses based on the facts and past experiences in hand.  Anything less leans toward denial.

We are talking about actual and current ‘in the field’ experience to generate factual information, and not one derived from Googling the internet from selective media outlet to make up your ‘truths over facts.

But the funny thing about your post is, educated guess is a result of information not rooted on facts, otherwise it would be conclusive. But from your POV, you’re confined to just guessing as you’re much too far removed both from geography and actual events to generate your version of ‘facts’.

[BC]

You're certainly entitled to your opinion GQ.  I'm not gonna try and take that away from you.

Let's check back towards the end of the year and see who has been closer to the actual results before throwing hissy fits.

[Gator]

Just remember what we see in the charts today is the evidence of what started a couple of weeks ago. 

This second wave in Florida had its start with the reopening, with Phase One starting in early May in some counties and all counties by May 18 (Miami area being last).   In 1 to  1-1/2 months, it seems to have again reached community spread level.   Today we set another record for positive tests.   

We could well already be in a period of exponential growth.  Unfortunately by the time we realize such it will be too late to react as the damage will have been done and again we are left to deal with the aftermath.

Not certain the aftermath will be severe.  There are differences with the second wave.  Consider these three. 

1.  The median age of cases has lowered definitely.
 
The cumulative total of all cases in my county are distributed across age groups as follows:

Age Range             Percent of Total

0-4                                       2%
5-14                                     3%
15-24                                  16%
25-34                                  23%
35-44                                  16%
45-54                                  14%
55-64                                  11%
65-74                                    8%
75-84                                    5%
85+                                       3%


2.   More tested cases are asymptomatic.  Earlier testing required a threshold of symptoms; not so today.   

3. Hospitalizations are occurring at a lower rate.  My county is one of the five hardest hit counties in Florida, and we had 400 new cases today vs <100 two weeks ago; yet hospitalizations are only 50% higher.  (Yes, hospitalization stats lag testing stats).
 

Over here, we would already be back in hard lockdown.

American sense of freedom has trouble abiding with lockdowns.  And some Americans are choosing to place their lives at greater risk.  I just hope these risky  people don't exceed the capacity of our healthcare system in case my family needs it.

[msmob]

Sadly, what was bloomin' obvious is now happening in the US.. This second wave was predicted and 'mocked' by the boards 'experts in meds', too..

It's not just Americans that have issues with being told what to do and restrictions on freedom.. what makes it REALLY difficult to Police is when 'leaders' and their 'advisors' break the rules and set the 'example'.

I am FURIOUS with those protesting about lives mattering and putting far more lives at risk ...

Get safe, Gator

[BC]

This is all still very much the first wave. Maybe chapter 2 "Free again"...

[GQBlues]

You're certainly entitled to your opinion GQ.  I'm not gonna try and take that away from you.

Let's check back towards the end of the year and see who has been closer to the actual results before throwing hissy fits.

[Lily]

Russian doctors say that the reason why the FSU countries are not that suffering from covid is because there are very few senior homes there. Russian seniors are generally staying with their families that take care of them.

Proud to be Russian, and a full time caregiver to my mother

[2tallbill]

..and Beel would respond that's the 'socialist way' of dealing with things and need to be educated as to the make up of the Italian govt

Moby,

You should explain your opinion on things and let me respond with
mine. You have enough work defending your own positions to need
meddling with mine.

No, I would say that's the authoritarian or Statist way of doing things,
luckily we have a Constitutional Republic here and petty bureaucrats 
can't go around violating our constitutional rights.

Socialists seek to be authoritarians and in many case are authoritarians
but they are different things. No need to try to guess what my opinion
on a matter is, all you have to do is ask.

Udachi!

Bill

[2tallbill]

One can, however, make educated guesses based on the facts and past experiences in hand.  Anything less leans toward denial.

So am I wrong? You know how this is going to pan out? I am in denial
because I am probably not onboard with your solutions?

I am against throwing us into a world wide depression unless mankind's
existence at our current lifestyle is at stake.

[BC]

So am I wrong? You know how this is going to pan out? I am in denial
because I am probably not onboard with your solutions?

I am against throwing us into a world wide depression unless mankind's
existence at our current lifestyle is at stake.

You tell me 2Tall what is working and what is not...

[BillyB]

Russian doctors say that the reason why the FSU countries are not that suffering from covid is because there are very few senior homes there. Russian seniors are generally staying with their families that take care of them.

Proud to be Russian, and a full time caregiver to my mother

Anybody can transfer the disease to seniors whether its a worker or family visitor to a senior citizens home or at home. I would say the amount of Senior citizens per capita of Russia is lower than Italy's so Russia will see fewer senior citizens deaths simply because they have less per capita. Also there are different strains of SARS-COV2 and some are more deadly than others. Without a vaccine or immunity, we all will get old and we all may eventually succumb to COVID-19. Early estimates say it's taking 11-12 years off our lifespans.

[Gator]

You tell me 2Tall what is working and what is not...

Many variables to consider besides morbidity.   

The actual total number of US cases of COVID-19 (tested and non-tested) now is believed by scientists to be about the same as in April.  The smaller number of tests in April meant many cases went undetected. 

The most important variable is "deaths."  Because of evolutionary progression, less fatal strains of the virus should be more dominant today.  Because deaths lag detection of infection,  the next 2 weeks are important to understand a) the trajectory of the spreading and b) whether case fatality rate is indeed lower as expected.     

Of course, another variable to consider is the economy, as the policy decisions involved tradeofs.     

 

[GQBlues]

Exactly. At the beginning of May, it is estimated 34,000 +/- non-COVID deaths was attributed due to the lockdown. 9 hours ago, another 10,000 cancer related deaths is reported due to the delayed caused by the lockdown.

Of these two numbers, 44,000 non-COVID deaths, is more deaths than most other countries sustained with the virus.

Additionally, I'm not so sure comparing Italy vs the US is apples to apples. It's about as viable as comparing New York to Hawaii. It doesn't really 'mean' anything.