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Author Topic: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)  (Read 53528 times)

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Online BillyB

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1350 on: August 17, 2020, 09:28:46 PM »



Herd immunity will significantly decrease the chances of a major outbreak and allow us to live a more normal life temporarily. What we need is lifetime immunity. After the first round of vaccines are distributed, they will continue to work to find better vaccines.
Do your part to limit the spread of COVID-19

Online 2tallbill

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FSUW are not for entry level daters
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Offline BC

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1352 on: August 17, 2020, 11:19:59 PM »
Scientists and others are still just guessing Gator.  We still have a lot to learn, much of which will be revealed by the trials going on.  The BIG question that remains:  How long does immunity last and can one become infected again?

We can't relax based on hopes and speculation.  The NYT article is very clear:

Quote
His model puts the threshold for herd immunity at 43 percent that is, the virus cannot hang on in a community after that percentage of residents has been infected and recovered.

Still, that means many residents of the community will have been sickened or have died, a high price to pay for herd immunity. And experts like Dr. Hanage cautioned that even a community that may have reached herd immunity cannot afford to be complacent.



The virus may still flare up here and there, even if its overall spread is stymied. Its also unclear how long someone who has recovered may be immune, and for how long.

Online msmob

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1353 on: August 18, 2020, 12:18:51 AM »


Herd immunity will significantly decrease the chances of a major outbreak and allow us to live a more normal life temporarily. What we need is lifetime immunity. After the first round of vaccines are distributed, they will continue to work to find better vaccines.

BillyB

Tell us us more about 'herd immunity'

Tell us how many folk in Sweden have antibodies present and how many had to die ?


http://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/17/swedens-covid-19-strategist-under-fire-over-herd-immunity-emails

Sweden's Covid-19 strategist under fire over herd immunity emails

email exchanges obtained by Swedish journalists under freedom of information laws show Tegnell discussing herd immunity as an objective in mid-March, days after the World Health Organization declared Covid-19 a pandemic.

In one exchange, Tegnell forwarded to his Finnish counterpart, Mika Salminen, and the head of the Swedish national health agency, FHM, an email from a retired doctor suggesting one way of tackling the epidemic would be to allow healthy people to become infected voluntarily in controlled settings.


Authorities estimated that 40% of Stockholms population would have contracted Covid-19 by May, but national studies have found immunity to the virus remains relatively low and a study published last week in the Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine concluded herd immunity was nowhere in sight.



Online msmob

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1354 on: August 18, 2020, 12:24:16 AM »
MN Governor Quietly Reverses Course on Hydroxychloroquine
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/08/17/mn_governor_quietly_reverses_course_on_hydroxychloroquine__143978.html

That you picked this up from a POLITICS website rather than a medical one speaks volumes ...

What is YOUR expertise on HCQ, Beel ...?


http://ard.bmj.com/content/early/2020/08/05/annrheumdis-2020-218500.abstract


« Last Edit: August 18, 2020, 01:35:31 AM by AnonMod »

Offline BC

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1355 on: August 18, 2020, 03:32:51 AM »
http://www.newsmax.com/us/deborahbirx-italy-lockdown-covid-19/2020/08/17/id/982575/

Quote
Dr. Birx: I Wish US Had Locked Down 'Like Italy'

"But when Italy locked down, I mean, people were not allowed out of their houses. And they couldn't come out but once every two weeks to buy groceries for one hour. And they had to have a certificate that said they were allowed."

NB:  Certificates were required, they were self-certified certificates filled out by yourself (no official authorization needed) that simply stated that the trip into town was for 'necessary purposes' such as a critical job, shopping, pharmacy and doctor etc.  There were no 'once every two weeks' limits.  You could go shopping daily if needed.  We usually went one or two days per week to avoid contact.

I agree that the lockdown was quite restrictive, but looking back totally necessary to get to where we are today with low Rt, low positivity and saving many thousands of lives in the process.

Many I have spoken to here consider the sacrifices they made quite justified, especially when observing results and deaths in the US.
« Last Edit: August 18, 2020, 03:34:37 AM by BC »

Online 2tallbill

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1356 on: August 18, 2020, 06:20:45 AM »
What is YOUR expertise on HCQ, Beel ...?

I posted an article that I didn't write, without comment. You are not a
medical doctor and have no special qualifications. Go ahead and tell
everyone that you were the head of the CDC, nobody will listen.

FSUW are not for entry level daters
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Online msmob

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1357 on: August 18, 2020, 07:48:56 AM »
I posted an article that I didn't write, without comment. You are not a
medical doctor and have no special qualifications. Go ahead and tell
everyone that you were the head of the CDC, nobody will listen.

1/ I have a qualie that means I'm just as smart as any Doc on microbiology

2/ I have a daughter who has been taking HCQ for a use it actually has efficacy

3/ I have a micro-biologist as a biz partner and a medical professional ( retired surgeon) with experience in working in Congo, Ethiopia in epidemiology  and the Russian is a brilliant Mathematician who studied medicine , concurrently


Now that has dealt with MY CV, lets deal with your politically motivated ignorance ..

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1358 on: August 18, 2020, 08:09:51 AM »
1/ I have a qualie that means I'm just as smart as any Doc on microbiology


                 :ROFL: :ROFL: :ROFL: :rolleyes2:
« Last Edit: August 18, 2020, 08:11:38 AM by Confederate »
War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength.
George Orwell 1984

Online 2tallbill

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1359 on: August 18, 2020, 08:11:21 AM »
1/ I have a qualie that means I'm just as smart as any Doc on microbiology

2/ I have a daughter who has been taking HCQ for a use it actually has efficacy

3/ I have a micro-biologist as a biz partner and a medical professional ( retired surgeon) with experience in working in Congo, Ethiopia in epidemiology  and the Russian is a brilliant Mathematician who studied medicine , concurrently


Nobody cares, argumentum ad verecundiam

 

Ohio pharmacy board reverses hydroxychloroquine ban
The Ohio Board of Pharmacy on Thursday reversed its decision to ban sales
of the drug hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID-19 after feedback from the
medical community.
read the entire story here
http://www.pharmacist.com/article/ohio-pharmacy-board-reverses-hydroxychloroquine-ban
« Last Edit: August 18, 2020, 08:31:56 AM by 2tallbill »
FSUW are not for entry level daters
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Kiss the girl, don't ask her first.

Offline GQBlues

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1360 on: August 18, 2020, 08:39:32 AM »
WOW! In the article:

~Prescribing hydroxychloroquine in the early stages of the virus is key, Risch said, and others agree. Steven Hatfill, a veteran virologist and adjunct assistant professor at the George Washington University Medical Center, says the literature supporting hydroxychloroquine is overwhelming. ~

Overwhelming!!!

Another eye-opener on the article:

~Hydroxychloroquine might be politically controversial, but that hasnt stopped some of its critics from taking advantage of the drug. In a May interview, former presidential hopeful Sen. Amy Klobuchar admitted her husband was successfully treated with hydroxychloroquine, a medication she had mocked on Twitter. ~

Ironic, but good and funny nonetheless!
Quote from: msmob
1. Because of 'man', global warming is causing desert and arid areas to suffer long, dry spell.
2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming.
3. N95 mask will choke you dead after 30 min. of use.

Online Gator

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1361 on: August 18, 2020, 08:57:22 AM »
Dr. Birx: I Wish US Had Locked Down 'Like Italy'

I saw that clip. BC, you failed her subsequent and equally important statement.

Quote
   Americans dont react well to that kind of prohibition.


Therein lies the rub.  State governments closed non-essential activities, yet  did not do an "Italy."  Nor did the Federal government pass legislation mandating an "Italy." 

The American approach depended much on voluntary compliance.   I assert most Americans voluntarily followed the health guidelines. 

My Household. In my household, I continued to shop for essentials and to play golf adhering to safe protocols.  My wife stayed home, and my stepson continued to work at a deli counter.  His university classes were conducted online, and he had nil social contacts outside the family.   Contractors coming to our house followed guidelines.  We went to two restaurants (outdoors) after they reopened and a short string of other services such as auto repair and medical facilities.         

Working Americans. Most Americans needed to work, and worked they did to support their families.  My son with four mouths to feed is a real estate appraiser, and everyday he inspected 2-3 occupied homes as part of helping them refinance at attractive low interest rates.  He refused to enter two suspicious houses.   My other son who makes films shut down, and went on the parental and governmental dole.  My stepdaughter and her husband continued to work a hectic schedule to keep their booming private company afloat, interacting carefully with customers, employees,  and others everyday.   

Careless Americans.  Many Americans were less careful, especially the young who wanted social experiences.  Cinemas and bars were closed, yet they created other venues for socializing.  Some of it was illegal such as looting and violent protests, yet the law was not enforced. Do you adhere to the Democrat line that this was Trump's fault? 

Government Mistakes. Some state governments  made mistakes.  Several red states reopened too soon.  Yet more grievous were decisions such as New York's to return COVID patients to their nursing homes rather than use hospitals provided by Trump. Do you adhere to the Democrat line that this was Trump's fault?

Quote
Many I have spoken to here consider the sacrifices they made quite justified, especially when observing results and deaths in the US.

It is still too early to calculate a final tally.  The tally is not just a sum of deaths per million citizens.  It must include economic losses and indirect losses.   

Would I personally have done anything different knowing then what I know today?  Nothing significant.  Only 2.3% of my county have been infected, and of those less than 1.4% died.  That's less than 3,000::1 odds of death.   At my age, death by heart disease or cancer is much more likely.   

Meanwhile we are getting closer to a vaccine.  Failing that, herd immunity is closer too. 

Online BillyB

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1362 on: August 18, 2020, 09:02:00 AM »
~Prescribing hydroxychloroquine in the early stages of the virus is key, Risch said, and others agree.


HCQ doesn't work instantaneously. It takes time before it actually works. It's why Trump was taking it even when he wasn't infected. It's a gamble. If someone took HCQ early and got infected and their immune system wants to go into overdrive killing organs, then HCQ is great stuff and could save their life. But if a person was on HCQ and their immune system proved not strong enough to fight COVID, HCQ could increase their chances of dying. Nobody, including doctors knows how someone's immune system will react to COVID. It's a gamble when taking HCQ early.

It's okay if 2 States our of 50 want to reverse course due to political pressure. The link below has the current best candidates to use for treatments. Doctors in those two states need to consider them although they now have the option to give HCQ to a screaming patient and their family who demands it. Most likely an all new drug for treatment needs to be created for COVID like what was done for HIV. It may take decades to develop a successful drug.

http://www.bio.org/policy/human-health/vaccines-biodefense/coronavirus/pipeline-tracker
Do your part to limit the spread of COVID-19

Offline GQBlues

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1363 on: August 18, 2020, 09:15:10 AM »
HCQ doesn't work instantaneously. It takes time before it actually works. It's why Trump was taking it even when he wasn't infected. It's a gamble. If someone took HCQ early and got infected and their immune system wants to go into overdrive killing organs, then HCQ is great stuff and could save their life. But if a person was on HCQ and their immune system proved not strong enough to fight COVID, HCQ could increase their chances of dying. Nobody, including doctors knows how someone's immune system will react to COVID. It's a gamble when taking HCQ early.

It's okay if 2 States our of 50 want to reverse course due to political medical pressure. The link below has the current best candidates to use for treatments. Doctors in those two states need to consider them although they now have the option to give HCQ to a screaming patient and their family who demands it. Most likely an all new drug for treatment needs to be created for COVID like what was done for HIV. It may take decades to develop a successful drug.

http://www.bio.org/policy/human-health/vaccines-biodefense/coronavirus/pipeline-tracker

I suspect Henry Ford Clinic haven't received anything from you, yes?
Quote from: msmob
1. Because of 'man', global warming is causing desert and arid areas to suffer long, dry spell.
2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming.
3. N95 mask will choke you dead after 30 min. of use.

Online BillyB

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1364 on: August 18, 2020, 09:20:25 AM »
I suspect Henry Ford Clinic haven't received anything from you, yes?

I'm still waiting for them to do the recommended trials they said were needed in their conclusion. I suspect they gave up on the project and are now testing other drugs that show more promise.
Do your part to limit the spread of COVID-19

Offline GQBlues

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1365 on: August 18, 2020, 09:22:32 AM »
I'm still waiting for them to do the recommended trials they said were needed in their conclusion. I suspect they gave up on the project and are now testing other drugs that show more promise.

Ahh! I knew it. There's a Filipino dessert called 'hollow-hollow', too.
« Last Edit: August 18, 2020, 01:46:56 PM by GQBlues »
Quote from: msmob
1. Because of 'man', global warming is causing desert and arid areas to suffer long, dry spell.
2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming.
3. N95 mask will choke you dead after 30 min. of use.

Offline BC

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1366 on: August 18, 2020, 09:25:49 AM »
I saw that clip. BC, you failed her subsequent and equally important statement.

Quote
Americans dont react well to that kind of prohibition.

Therein lies the rub.  State governments closed non-essential activities, yet  did not do an "Italy."  Nor did the Federal government pass legislation mandating an "Italy." 

The American approach depended much on voluntary compliance.   I assert most Americans voluntarily followed the health guidelines. 


Yes, I saw that part of her interview, your comment 'unruly' came to mind.  Had most Americans and states followed the published reopening guidelines a lot of grief may have been avoided.

I still assert that a relatively short 45-day lockdown followed by a mandated pre-planned reopening phase would have allowed for a faster and more robust recovery without costly interruptions and rollbacks.  It is obvious that the patchwork approach (first attempted here in Italy) did not work.  Whereas Europe is in recovery mode with folks pretty much back to work as usual, the US has still a long way to go to stabilize and possibly additional crisis as well with rents and mortgages and health bills, and etc etc.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-nw-nyt-europe-unemployment-rate-covid-19-20200704-ihuzdo2kbngdxjnoxqxymejhj4-story.html

Online 2tallbill

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1367 on: August 18, 2020, 09:39:04 AM »
I still assert that a relatively short 45-day lockdown followed by a mandated
pre-planned reopening phase would have allowed for a faster and more robust
recovery without costly interruptions and rollbacks. 

It is obvious that the patchwork approach (first attempted here in Italy) did not work.

I really think that's the best that we can do with 50 different States with 50 different
governors and state legislatures involved. The USA is 32 and a half times the size of
Italy.

It would be impossible to mandate a one size fits all reopening with that many politicians
and egos involved. The governors know their local situation better than any federal
agency or official and some of them wouldn't do anything that a Trump administration
had a hand in.

Lastly, our constitution doesn't allow the government to force people to do all the
same things that Italy can do to their citizens.

FSUW are not for entry level daters
FSUW don't do vague
FSUW like a man of action. Be a man of action 
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There are a hundred ways to be successful and a thousand ways to f#ck it up
Kiss the girl, don't ask her first.

Online Gator

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1368 on: August 18, 2020, 10:13:28 AM »

Had most Americans and states followed the published reopening guidelines a lot of grief may have been avoided.


I was out and about.  In my neighborhood, "most Americans" were following the guidelines in stores, doctor offices, etc. 

My family other than my wife worked and saw more than me, and they say most everyone followed guidelines   such as wearing masks inside stores.     There were exceptions, and the exceptions standout, and are concerning.   

What do they show on your internet news or Italy TV?

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1369 on: August 18, 2020, 11:32:41 AM »
What do they show on your internet news or Italy TV?

Same thing every day.  The numbers of new infections and deaths, progress reports by region, new clusters located, imported cases.  Today about why testing at one airport in Milan is behind testing being done at Rome arrivals and that all school teachers will get serological tests before school starts. 470 tourists quarantined in Sardinia at a tourist residence after one of the staff tested positive, some tried to run to the airport and were stopped.  12 in the Rome area tested positive after a party in Sardinia. Other smaller groups quarantined other places after folks tested positive.  Testing, tracking and tracing are working.  That's about it for today.

My son and GF flew down for a couple of weeks.  On arrival back in Germany got free tests at the airport and negative results in 24 hours. 

Is free testing being offered/performed at US airports?

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1370 on: August 18, 2020, 11:47:44 AM »
I really think that's the best that we can do with 50 different States with 50 different
governors and state legislatures involved. The USA is 32 and a half times the size of
Italy.

Italy has 20 regions, a quarter of which are autonomous.  Still, they worked together in concert.

Quote
It would be impossible to mandate a one size fits all reopening with that many politicians
and egos involved. The governors know their local situation better than any federal
agency or official and some of them wouldn't do anything that a Trump administration
had a hand in.

Yeah, that would require true leadership.

Quote
Lastly, our constitution doesn't allow the government to force people to do all the
same things that Italy can do to their citizens.

Sure about that?

Quote
Under section 361 of the Public Health Service Act (42 U.S. Code 264), the U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services is authorized to take measures to prevent the entry and spread of communicable diseases from foreign countries into the United States and between states.

Not much different than was done here.  One could not leave their region of residence without good cause.  Regions (our states) further limited movement for a time to your home city.  Governors would likely have similar powers.

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1371 on: August 18, 2020, 12:10:08 PM »
12 in the Rome area tested positive after a party in Sardinia.

12! Wow!

One week into the semester, and 139 UNC-Chapel Hill (yes the Tar Heels) students tested positive. The outbreak essentially occurred in four clusters (5 or more):  two residence halls, one a private apartment that houses students, and a fraternity house.   UNC announced it is transitioning all undergraduate classes to fully online instruction.

Kids!

Quote
Is free testing being offered/performed at US airports?

I haven't seen an airport in 6+ months.  Are they open?   ;D

We drive to our holidays these days, 8 1/2  hours to NC mountains to escape the Florida summer.  In recent years we went farther north to better NC mountains,  or to the Rocky Mountains, or to Maine, or Santa Fe... all involved getting on a plane.  Life has changed.  We did not go to friend's wedding.  Family and friends from Russia are absent. 

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1372 on: August 18, 2020, 12:29:57 PM »
Italy has 20 regions, a quarter of which are autonomous.  Still, they worked together in concert. 

But you are not in a civil war between "conservative volunteer government and a leftist professional government."

Yes, we have a civil war because the losing party refused to accept the 2016 election results.  That losing party believes the only legitimate exercise of power in this country is its own.  That party has continued to obstruct legitimate executive power through actions of partisan Federal judges, or agents deeply embedded as bureaucrats, or states exercising powers they never were allowed to use in the past, or a chamber of legislature stonewalling.

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1373 on: August 18, 2020, 01:28:30 PM »
That losing party believes the only legitimate exercise of power in this country is its own.  That party has continued to obstruct legitimate executive power through actions of partisan Federal judges, or agents deeply embedded as bureaucrats, or states exercising powers they never were allowed to use in the past, or a chamber of legislature stonewalling.

Funny.. I've heard pretty much the same story from both sides.  Guess it depends on who has the winning hand at the moment. It is pretty amazing our form of democracy has held up until now.  We'll all eventually get tired of the political gaming, finish ripping up the Constitution and start a civil war.  We're well along the path now.

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1374 on: August 18, 2020, 01:36:30 PM »
I really think that's the best that we can do with 50 different States with 50 different
governors and state legislatures involved. The USA is 32 and a half times the size of
Italy.

It would be impossible to mandate a one size fits all reopening with that many politicians
and egos involved. The governors know their local situation better than any federal
agency or official and some of them wouldn't do anything that a Trump administration
had a hand in.


Lastly, our constitution doesn't allow the government to force people to do all the
same things that Italy can do to their citizens.

Agree completely. A good example is Gov. Cuomo. Touted as being a governor that exercised great leadership but look at what the actual toll under his watch? Not to mention having over 6,000 deaths attributed to his mandate alone. He's suppose to write a book about leadership and the fight against COVID-19! LMAO! NY has 33,000 dead! It's gotta one of those W-T-F moment, man.

California is on the 'rise', and boast as the top state with the greatest # of infection. This, despite Gov. Newsom being able to govern his State 'free' from any demands or intervention from the WH or any federal agency.

To keep politicizing a novel virus is just plain silly.

One thing I can say however with California, we have 3 times the infection Italy has, yet with 3 times less fatality. Does this mean anything to anyone? Maybe like Italians are a bunch weaklings/sissies? Or, maybe this clearly means their Socialize health system is in reality shoddy? Or, maybe their government is the world's worst form of governing? Disorganize society? Maybe all of the above?

So far, despite the much higher rate of infection, No Californians have to fear our medical systems will play god and choose on who gets to live or die like they did in Italy.

« Last Edit: August 18, 2020, 01:43:30 PM by GQBlues »
Quote from: msmob
1. Because of 'man', global warming is causing desert and arid areas to suffer long, dry spell.
2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming.
3. N95 mask will choke you dead after 30 min. of use.

 

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