2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)

[Gator]

1/ Sweden killed 10 times more than her immediate neighbours, Norway and Finland and six times more than Denmark

2/ Sweden's economy contacted by over eight percent in QTR 2 ... Finland just over 5

3/ Who thinks removing 5-8 eight years off a life is 'worth it' ?

4/ We see in nations like Belarus what happens to a 'leader' who tried to ignore the virus ..

Repeat, repeat, repeat.....rest....repeat, repeat again and again.

[BillyB]

Philippines will join 14 human trials of vaccines to get priority access.

The article also said our own Department of Health is considering waiving phase 4 trials to get a vaccine out sooner. I suspect every vaccine in the world that passes phase 3 will get approval and phase 4 will be conducted after distribution to the general population.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/philippines-in-talks-with-16-vaccine-makers-to-secure-supplies/ar-BB18ikfr?ocid=spartan-ntp-feeds

[GQBlues]

For those STILL thinking the old weren't worth saving ..

1/ Sweden killed 10 times more than her immediate neighbours, Norway and Finland and six times more than Denmark

2/ Sweden's economy contacted by over eight percent in QTR 2 ... Finland just over 5

3/ Who thinks removing 5-8 eight years off a life is 'worth it' ?

4/ We see in nations like Belarus what happens to a 'leader' who tried to ignore the virus ..

w/ strict lockdown:
UK: 324,203; 41,489; 12.8%; 62.40 - UK's economy contracted by 20.4% on Q2. (LMAO)

w/ relaxed lockdown:
Sweden: 85,810; 5,805; 6.8%; 57.01

[BC]

You realize you have four years of posts criticizing Trump.  At maybe 5 such posts per week, that's 1000 posts.  And the basis of your criticism typically boils down not to hard facts but your perceptions, tainted by the fact you despise Trump's persona.  Try finding a post where you said something good about Trump and COVID.  Let's open that to anything about Trump, not just NY.

http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?topic=24465.msg539350#msg539350

JFTR

[msmob]

Repeat, repeat, repeat.....rest....repeat, repeat again and again.

Good morning, Phil,

It is indeed a shame that I had to repost given you don;t seem to be reminding those who post nonsense misinfo, but 'moan' about FACTS

[BC]

Wear, wash, rinse, repeat is the motto around here.

A 100-page forum thread, when condensed to its essence, is about 3 pages of position statements.

Normalna

[Gator]

http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?topic=24465.msg539350#msg539350

JFTR

I was wrong.  I correct the score: 

1,897 to 0 1   

[Gator]

Good morning, Phil,

Top of the day, McMoby.

It is indeed a shame that I had to repost given you don;t seem to be reminding those who post nonsense misinfo, but 'moan' about FACTS

You seem to want an explanation.  Here goes.   

My openness to consider this post took a hit when immediately before I read your post asserting (for the 1,000th time) the Electoral College is wrong.

The EC is not wrong.   Because you 1) do not reside here, 2) have not educated yourself about the intent of the founding fathers, 3) have not observed closely the workings of the three branches of US government, 4) etc.  I declare your opinions about the EC are based are based in large part on lack of both knowledge and experience, aka ignorance  (I did not use any insulting term such as stupidity).
 

In addition to ignorance, now throw in another part, stubbornness, and still another for a gadfly posting history.  And maybe you will understand  why I did not  take your next post seriously, especially  when I see in the first words you are repeating stuff. 

Admittedly, I was in a bad mood from something else. You assert you posted facts.  Maybe.   I will never know.  Just another day at RWD. 

[msmob]

Hi Phil!
That was a lovely explanation.

However,

1/ It is a little tiresome when you or Beel suggest I do not know history and the intent of your founding fathers..

One of my own nations has a totally fair electoral system, where people has been disenfranchised  for two and a half centuries, but didn't implement the new, fair system on the mainland of GB.

I moan about ANY democracy  with a first past the post system..do not take it personally)

2/ I have posted indisputable figures from the Nordic nations that prove the UTTER folly ( murder?) of citizens than would likely still be here in Sweden and the denied policy of 'herd immunity'..

The press are on to that  in Sweden and suddenly lots of emails cannot be found...

[msmob]

BBC News - Hong Kong reports 'first case' of virus reinfection
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53889823

Hong Kong scientists are reporting the case of a healthy man in his 30s who became reinfected with coronavirus four and a half months after his first bout.

The World Health Organization warns it is important not to jump to conclusions based on the case of one patient.

[Rosco]

Only one of those nations has two major hub airports, cruise liner departure points ..  The UK govt. was daft enough to try the 'Swedish way' ..but 'wised up'..too late for many

You made a daft point - I simply busted you with one example..

I could have mentioned Norway or Denmark...all neighbouring Nordic nations to Sweden ..

So...

FAIL on the death front

FAIL on the 'herd immunity' front


FAIL on the economic front

Now, ( once more ) FDA v GCB's HenryFord outlier ...

Yet Moby has the cheek to compare Finland & Sweden. Finland has less than half the population, half the population density & a totally different culture & rural/urban mix. They also have a completely different economy and tackled covid with a hybrid strategy.

Moby & his kind need to see countries like Sweden fail and the usual links to back up his nonsense is the Guardian. A left wing, conservative hating excuse for a news outlet, feeding petty people who hate Trump, Brexit, conservatives, capitalism & common sense.

No country has come out of this well and the virus did what a virus does. It kills the old, the weak and the vulnerable.

Sweden has many things to be proud of, in its handling of covid but those politicising a pandemic will move mountains before accepting some inconvenient facts. Start with total deaths (5k+ deaths to 10M+population) and then look at how many came from care homes. From the 5,800 dead, more than 5,200 were 70+. Only 60 odd deaths were people under the age of 50. Then remove those who had serious illness and it’s penny numbers.

We’re literally talking about a handful of deaths in a country of 10.23 million people. Was it ideal no but it wasn’t the disaster Moby tries to sell. All the talk of ten times the rate of this and that is just a distraction. If only Sweden like the rest of the world had managed their care homes better. Moby will argue but he’s still wrong. He even blames Lukashenko ignoring covid for what’s happening in Belarus now. Nothing to do with a rigged election or anything

Sweden didn’t do it better than everyone else but they have lots of positives because of how they choose to handle it. The left just can’t stomach the thought.

[BC]

Yet Moby has the cheek to compare Finland & Sweden. Finland has less than half the population, half the population density & a totally different culture & rural/urban mix. They also have a completely different economy and tackled covid with a hybrid strategy.

That is why the only real measure we have is deaths per million as it encompasses most of the underlying factors.  As far as countries go, we're not really that different or unique in composition.  Propagation of the virus and its aftereffects are mostly driven by our behaviours.

[Rosco]

That is why the only real measure we have is deaths per million as it encompasses most of the underlying factors.  As far as countries go, we're not really that different or unique in composition.  Propagation of the virus and its aftereffects are mostly driven by our behaviours.

It's still a very simple yard stick because the initial death rate comparison doesn’t take into account things like additional non covid deaths attributed to people not going for treatment, suicide attributed to lockdown or murder & domestic abuse. On a wider scale we’ve got social issues, government debt & job losses. It’ll all play out over years rather than months.

Like I said, nobody came out of this with a gold medal and country comparison is apples and pears. Look at Belgium & Holland, two similar countries in many ways with two very different outcomes. Both locked down.

Belgium locked down but fared way worse than Sweden. Some people even try to compare New Zealand and the UK because they can’t help but politicise it.

[GQBlues]

It's still a very simple yard stick because the initial death rate comparison doesn’t take into account things like additional non covid deaths attributed to people not going for treatment, suicide attributed to lockdown or murder & domestic abuse. On a wider scale we’ve got social issues, government debt & job losses. It’ll all play out over years rather than months.

Like I said, nobody came out of this with a gold medal and country comparison is apples and pears. Look at Belgium & Holland, two similar countries in many ways with two very different outcomes. Both locked down.

Belgium locked down but fared way worse than Sweden. Some people even try to compare New Zealand and the UK because they can’t help but politicise it.

Well, looky what we got here?!? A reasoned, sensible post!

[Gator]

1/ It is a little tiresome when you or Beel suggest I do not know history and the intent of your founding fathers..

So prove it by not sounding ignorant. 

One of my own nations has a totally fair electoral system, where people has been disenfranchised  for two and a half centuries, but didn't implement the new, fair system on the mainland of GB.

That's as clear as mud.  Whatever in hell your nation(s) implemented, I don't care.  You should stop caring about something my nation's founding fathers did purposefully and with much deliberation.  Plus it has functioned well for 230 years. 

[BillyB]

In the past we talked about organ damage survivors can get. A couple of links pertaining to the heart below. Some survivors showed little symptoms and weren't even hospitalized yet MRIs did show that 78% had some type of abnormality in their hearts. We don't need to shut the nation down but we still need to be cautious. There's a reason all nations are taking some degree of action to prevent spread. COVID is bad stuff which can create long term medical costs for a nation.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2020/07/29/study-how-covid-19-coronavirus-may-affect-your-heart/#3c2a6eb61b89

http://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2768915

[Confederate]

Well, looky what we got here?!? A reasoned, sensible post!

Word! Well said Roscoe.

[msmob]

It's still a very simple yard stick because the initial death rate comparison doesn’t take into account things like additional non covid deaths attributed to people not going for treatment, suicide attributed to lockdown or murder & domestic abuse. On a wider scale we’ve got social issues, government debt & job losses. It’ll all play out over years rather than months.

Like I said, nobody came out of this with a gold medal and country comparison is apples and pears. Look at Belgium & Holland, two similar countries in many ways with two very different outcomes. Both locked down.

Belgium locked down but fared way worse than Sweden. Some people even try to compare New Zealand and the UK because they can’t help but politicise it.

Welcome back, Rosco!

'Some people' compare the Nordic nations as they are NOT...like you comparing apples and oranges.

'Some people' seek to deflect from the horrendous decisions of some govts. to go for 'herd immunity', then reverse course when too late.

'Some people' seek to deflect from Sweden suffering worse economically than neighbours who locked down.

'Some people' suggest this pandemkc is not nearly as serious as portrayed.

On this forum, you can expect your posts to be examined for accuracy.....

The Begium govt did not lock down as quickly as they should have...Perhaps you missed the staff at hospitals turning their backs on the PM when visiting hospitals...?

NZ is not a hub, island for transiting like the UK. It was much easier to lock down.

You have constantly downplayed the seriousness potential of the virus and believe that the effect on the economy should be a higher priority.

For sure, we don't know the damage done to folks couped up.. What what you have done in Scotland, if you were running the country?

[msmob]

So prove it by not sounding ignorant. 

It was YOU that was and being ignorant...

Your EC system is broken. It keeps allowing a loser to 'win'..

I can only surmise that if it was the 'blue team being the beneficiaries  your attitude would be somewhat different?!....

quote author=Gator link=topic=24136.msg541042#msg541042 date=1598306373]
That's as clear as mud.  Whatever in hell your nation(s) implemented, I don't care.  You should stop caring about something my nation's founding fathers did purposefully and with much deliberation.  Plus it has functioned well for 230 years.
[/quote]

1/ It IS clear that is NOT functioning...given results

2/ I am sorry if I used expressions or acronyms you did not understand.

PR means proportional representation.

First past the post, means the party with the highest vote wins that seat and takes no account of the overall voting percentage that might allow a party to win whilst not being the favoured party.

Your 'patriotism' is no excuse for turning a blind eye.

[BC]

It was YOU that was and being ignorant...

Your EC system is broken. It keeps allowing a loser to 'win'..

Moby,

That was how the EC was designed and nothing soon will change that.  Consider it the same as a handicap when playing golf. 

This is one instance where the Trumpisim "It is what it is" rings true.

That is not to say the system is perfect, mainly in the way electoral districts are drawn.  Also, the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact plugs along, and IIRC states themselves are 'winner take all' within the state with a couple of exceptions.

There will always be something to complain about regardless of the system used.

The most important factor in any election is voter apathy.  I imagine compulsory voting could result in vastly different outcomes and its effect would be far greater than any faults one might think exists within the current EC system.

[Rosco]

'Some people' compare the Nordic nations as they are NOT...like you comparing apples and oranges.

Each of them have different land mass, population, demographics, social structure, economy and politics. Comparing them simply using Covid deaths per million is way too simplistic if we want to have a real discussion. It can be used by lazy people to criticise Sweden though.

'Some people' seek to deflect from the horrendous decisions of some govts. to go for 'herd immunity', then reverse course when too late.

And some people seek to vilify any country who didn't adopt a strategy similar to most liberal governments. A pissing contest if you like where in reality, Sweden has performed better than some of those you wish to praise. For the avoidance of doubt, I never said Sweden got it exactly right.

'Some people' seek to deflect from Sweden suffering worse economically than neighbours who locked down.

Some people seek to deflect that Swedens economy shrank less than the Eurozone and was one of the best performing. Yes Q2 figures suggest its slightly behind Norway and Finland by a couple % but their growth forecast for the rest of the year and 2021 is better. It's also worth noting that Finland's economy isn't as reliant on export as Sweden and Norway has a completely different economy altogether (apples and pears old chap).

'Some people' suggest this pandemkc is not nearly as serious as portrayed.

Some people do. I think its serious and real but hiding in our houses and destroying our economy with no immediate promise of a successful vaccine or heard immunity makes no sense. Particularly when its the old, weak and ill who are dying. This is serious but shutting the world down and watching Netflix isn't the correct strategy.

On this forum, you can expect your posts to be examined for accuracy.....

On this forum, you behave exactly as you do elsewhere. You can expect to get called out.

The Begium govt did not lock down as quickly as they should have...Perhaps you missed the staff at hospitals turning their backs on the PM when visiting hospitals...?

Belgium locked down on 18th March.The Netherlands locked down on March 15th. Sweden didn't lock down at all. Sweden performed much better than Belgium and only slightly worse than Holland. Whats your point because this makes you look silly?

With regard to your comments on the hospital staff, see below.

"It comes in response to the signing into law of a royal decree that allows for unqualified staff to undertake nursing duties amid the COVID-19 pandemic, according to local media."

http://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-belgian-medics-turn-their-backs-on-pm-over-covid-19-decree-11990101

So nothing to do with a late lock down then Moby. 

NZ is not a hub, island for transiting like the UK. It was much easier to lock down.

Agreed but it didn't stop the liberal press and the left from falling over themselves to praise Jacinda Arden and her left wing party. Many used her to criticise male led conservative governments around the world.

You have constantly downplayed the seriousness potential of the virus and believe that the effect on the economy should be a higher priority.

Wrong again Moby. I have constantly said that the virus is real but locking everyone in their homes and hiding from a virus with no vaccine and potentially no heard immunity, would only wreck our economies and cause numerous secondary deaths and destruction, post lock down. We'll then be allowed back out and nothing will have changed.

For sure, we don't know the damage done to folks couped up.. What what you have done in Scotland, if you were running the country?

A tricky question because as we've already discussed, there is no one way to get through this. Whatever happens there will be deaths and politically motivated criticism.

Right now I think a hybrid strategy would work best. Think Sweden but with the care homes, the old, the weak and the ill shielded. Introduce social distancing, hand washing, mask wearing and limit numbers indoors. That would of course mean big changes and a new norm but we would have saved more of the vulnerable whilst avoiding the destruction of our economy.

Hind sight is a wonderful thing.

[BC]

Each of them have different land mass, population, demographics, social structure, economy and politics. Comparing them simply using Covid deaths per million is way too simplistic if we want to have a real discussion. It can be used by lazy people to criticise Sweden though.

Rosco,

Sometime in the future, statisticians, mathematicians and scientists will sit down and figure it all out, but we are talking years, when COVID is pretty much over.

The number of deaths per million is, until then, the best measuring stick we have.

Factors that would help clarify why are simply too many, and ongoing.

But we can draw some empirical conclusions or valid questions to ask ourselves, such as:

Italy, pretty much caught with pants down and elderly population, started national testing with infection focus Lombardia (Milan area) was able to drop the number of infections by a full national lockdown policy implemented on 10 March for 45 days (3 consecutive 14 day infection periods) and slowly open back up in a pre-programmed fashion based on collected data, resulting very low numbers of infections onward and in 586 deaths per million, still counting but very slowly, about 1 per million added per week.

The US with slightly younger population, for which one can assume infections were taking place at around the same time, NY and some places on the west coast were identified with a growing number of cases.  Testing was delayed sparse and in small numbers but increased as time went on.  NY became the focus for infections before it spread further.  NY locked down on 22 March in a localized fashion that was not implemented nationwide.  Mitigation efforts reduced infections to around 20k per day until mid June when many states started reducing hopskotch restrictions on schedules that did not follow national guidelines. Infection rates more than doubled.  NY kept on with restrictive measures and since has experienced low levels of infection.  Other states like California experienced higher infections along with states that lifted restrictions early.  This resulted in 547 deaths per million but still rapidly advancing at a rate between 2-4 per million per day, which will shortly surpass deaths per million in Italy.

Looking at these two countries, more is simlar than differs as far as populations, urban/rural spread etc goes.  The main difference and IMO objective factor that most determines deaths per million experienced is  the different containment and mitigation methods being used.

In the end, due to these differing methods, the US will fare much worse in terms of deaths and length of time the population and economy is affected.  Current projections are 300,000 deaths by 1 December in the US (900 per million) vs 44,000 (733 per million), representing approximately 20% difference.

Based on projections, I estimate approximately a bare minimum of 60,000 lives in the US could have been saved had the same mitigation methods used in Italy been used in the US, along with more quickly bringing infections down to a level where tracking and tracing are much more effective less negative effects on the population and economy.  Considering the timing of the spread in the US it could be far more than 60 thousand lives saved, even half the running total.

But Gator and others are likely correct in stating such would not work in the US because we are too 'rowdy', 'unruly' or whatever and not because the US is somehow inherently 'different' than Italy which you seem to point at.

p.s.
math has not been double checked so feel free to point out any errors.

[msmob]

Each of them have different land mass, population, demographics, social structure, economy and politics. Comparing them simply using Covid deaths per million is way too simplistic if we want to have a real discussion. It can be used by lazy people to criticise Sweden though.

I don't know if you've been to all four Nordic nations, but you try to deflect from unpleasant truths .. 

And some people seek to vilify any country who didn't adopt a strategy similar to most liberal governments. A pissing contest if you like where in reality, Sweden has performed better than some of those you wish to praise. For the avoidance of doubt, I never said Sweden got it exactly right.

I vilify ANY nation's leaders / 'advisors'  who experimented with lives and they already had a heads up as to the consequences ..  You HAVE suggested Sweden and offered it as an example elsewhere .....

Some people seek to deflect that Swedens economy shrank less than the Eurozone and was one of the best performing. Yes Q2 figures suggest its slightly behind Norway and Finland by a couple % but their growth forecast for the rest of the year and 2021 is better. It's also worth noting that Finland's economy isn't as reliant on export as Sweden and Norway has a completely different economy altogether (apples and pears old chap).

Firstly, Sweden's economy shrank by more than 8 percent ( Finland was 5) - that's THREE percent or nearly 40 percent more .... that's a FACT ... We can discuss actual growth when the figures are released

Finland's economy relies on exports, too ..  What you overlook is non lockdown Sweden's should be performing 'better', as we have folks on here telling us lockdown effect the economy MORE ..

I think its serious and real but hiding in our houses and destroying our economy with no immediate promise of a successful vaccine or heard immunity makes no sense. Particularly when its the old, weak and ill who are dying. This is serious but shutting the world down and watching Netflix isn't the correct strategy.

The MAJORITY are older and have underlying health issues ..  I have a mate aged 61 who had to have a kidney removed late last year and needs to shelter .. I'll mention to him  he is old ..   He was fit as a fiddle until they issue with his kidney was found ,..

MANY, many people have had mild forms of COVID-19 and NOW have underlying, long-term health issues ...

On this forum, you behave exactly as you do elsewhere. You can expect your BS to get called out.

As long as I back my viewpoint up, and don't suggest mental health issues ... you'll be the one accountable and you'll SEE my response ...  

Belgium locked down on 18th March.The Netherlands locked down on March 15th. Sweden didn't lock down at all. Sweden performed much better than Belgium and only slightly worse than Holland. Whats your point because this makes you look silly?

There is no nation called 'Holland' .. and Sweden's record is abysmal for a non densely populated nation ...

With regard to your comments on the hospital staff, see below. This is why you're kept on a tight leash because you use unrelated events to feed your own agenda, hoping it wont be checked.

"It comes in response to the signing into law of a royal decree that allows for unqualified staff to undertake nursing duties amid the COVID-19 pandemic, according to local media."

http://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-belgian-medics-turn-their-backs-on-pm-over-covid-19-decree-11990101

So nothing to do with a late lock down then Moby. 

It had EVERYTHING to do with Belgium's policy to COVID-19 and that was the straw that broke the camel's back for health professionals

Belgium's reporting methodology is FAR more accurate - than say - the UK's .. you might like to try to compare the excess death rates for BE with UK ones provided by the ONS ... the UK's figures are WORSE

http://www.info-coronavirus.be/en/news/graph-excess-mortality/

Now ROSCO is the one politicising COVID-19

Agreed but it didn't stop the liberal press and the left from falling over themselves to praise Jacinda Arden and her left wing party. Many used her to criticise male led conservative governments around the world.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/beauty/people/new-zealands-prime-minister-surprising-beauty-hero-lockdown/

Ooops, Rosco .. . even the UK 'Torygraph' sees what you won't ..  I had no idea of her political stance BTW.

your reading skills have failed you again. I have constantly said that the virus is real but locking everyone in their homes and hiding from a virus with no vaccine and potentially no heard immunity, would only wreck our economies and cause numerous secondary deaths and destruction, post lock down. We'll then be allowed back out and nothing will have changed.

My  'reading skills' note that you're back pushing the anti-lock-down tosh and you have zip data to suggest nations who tried such an approach 'succeeded' in anything, other than murdering more citizens, unnecessarily.

A tricky question because as we've already discussed, there is no one way to get through this. Whatever happens there will be deaths and politically motivated criticism.

Some leaders have been particularly stupid / cavalier

Right now I think a hybrid strategy would work best. Think Sweden but with the care homes, the old, the weak and the ill shielded. Introduce social distancing, hand washing, mask wearing and limit numbers indoors. That would of course mean big changes and a new norm but we would have saved more of the vulnerable whilst avoiding the destruction of our economy.

Sweden hasn't got high levels of folks with antibodies present and it APPEARS that there is a sliding scale of 'benefit' or none at all (?) re ever evolving strains

Hind sight is a wonderful thing.

It's hindsight - not bad for my reading skills ( ! )  and when it comes to pandemics isn't it best to know your virus, before experimentation, a la Sweden and ( so nearly ) the UK, Belgium, US ... ?

[Rosco]

Moby, your post above countered nothing.

Experience tells me I’ll just waste more time proving you wrong. I’m not claiming to be 100% correct but everything you’ve got is simply bigoted views.

Try to just accept things are different to how you imagine.

[AnonMod]

To all posters, please adhere to Admin's admonition that "insulting other posters and personal sniping detract from RWD's Vision and Mission, and is not tolerated. Zero tolerance."

Thank you.