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Author Topic: Coronavirus, how are you preparing for it and how it is affecting you so far?  (Read 70221 times)

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Offline BC

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Coronavirus, how are you preparing for it and how it is affecting you so far?
« Reply #1325 on: March 25, 2020, 01:02:26 PM »

It is hoped that the number of new infections will not increase which would indicate that we may have peaked.  It is not known how long that peak will last as the numbers are stable but not really dropped off in any large numbers. The drop is only averaging only around 150 fewer cases per day which considering normal variance, essentially flat over the last week. 3500 new cases per day are still considerable. We've been in lockdown 18 days.  As new cases are still high numbers, hopefully, they will start tapering off sometime next week and continue falling over the next 20 days or so after that...  That will be +-2 months in strict lockdown nationwide, somewhat replicating the course in China.  A long way still to go with a death toll that will still rise as the majority of intensive care cases remain so for 3 weeks.

The north/south divide also seems to be holding with no new 'hotspots' appearing away from the most affected area.  I would not have expected to see the divide hold without strict containment.

In any case, an encouraging sign for the moment that will help the hospitals in Lombardy to stabilize and allow more doctors from other areas to be posted where needed most and not kept in reserve in case their area explodes.

Online Trenchcoat

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« Reply #1326 on: March 25, 2020, 01:06:00 PM »
What I was getting at a few weeks ago about the virus not just deadly to the elderly and/or those with underlying health conditions, but what the media wasn't getting through from the cases in Italy for a quite a while:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-52041709
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Online Trenchcoat

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« Reply #1327 on: March 25, 2020, 01:12:32 PM »
Didn't realise how bad Coronavirus is in NYC, it's shockingly badly out of control. 25 thousand people currently have it. Think on the radio they said it went up by 5000 today in just one day!

http://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-us-canada-52012048

Apparently the sombre news is that the morgues are near capacity there.

Glad I don't live in NYC.
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« Reply #1328 on: March 25, 2020, 01:28:58 PM »
The big surprise is how Russia has hardly been touched in comparison.


Russia acted early but they have undetected infections walking around. They will have an outbreak but it will be similar to Taiwan's or South Korea's instead of Western Europe's. Although Russia may manipulate their numbers, I really believe they won't have as big of a problem as Western nations. They closed their land border to China Jan 30.

Didn't realise how bad Coronavirus is in NYC, it's shockingly badly out of control. 25 thousand people currently have it. Think on the radio they said it went up by 5000 today in just one day!

http://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-us-canada-52012048

Apparently the sombre news is that the morgues are near capacity there.

Glad I don't live in NYC.

NYC will be America's Italy. They failed to take early steps to prevent a big outbreak. King County WA on the other hand will have an outbreak that won't be big because we took early steps to be prepared. We bought hotels before we even needed them. Over a month ago Trump gave States the power to take matters into their own hands. NY failed to act early and will pay dearly but NY doesn't represent all America which pretty much did a good job flattening the curve. All nations will experience more outbreaks that will disrupt our lives and economies. Hopefully we learned from this first one on what not to do.
Do your part to limit the spread of COVID-19

Offline BC

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« Reply #1329 on: March 25, 2020, 01:35:32 PM »

NYC will be America's Italy.


No, NY will become Italy's Lombardia. Unlike Lombardia, no one is preventing anyone from getting in or out of NY.


Offline Chelseaboy

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« Reply #1330 on: March 25, 2020, 01:52:12 PM »
Big drop in the deaths from the virus in the UK today...41

We had project fear here with Brexit ,then climate change and now Corona virus.
« Last Edit: March 25, 2020, 02:03:27 PM by Chelseaboy »
Just saying it like it is.

Online BillyB

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« Reply #1331 on: March 25, 2020, 02:04:19 PM »

BC, NY may end up with similar numbers to Italy. If Lombardia is much worse off than the rest of Italy, then NY won't get that bad. At this time there is no need for the military to surround any American city or State.

I read thousands of Chinese from Wuhan came to work in Northern Italy this year. Political correctness and Hug a Chinese initiative proposed on Feb 1 helped magnify the problems. This Hug a Chinese was proposed the day after Trump's racist travel restrictions on Chinese Jan 31. Did you Hug a Chinese ?

http://kprcradio.iheart.com/featured/the-pursuit-of-happiness/content/2020-03-20-on-february-1st-florence-italy-celebrated-hug-a-chinese-day/

http://www.theblaze.com/news/italy_political_correctness_china_coronavirus
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Online Gator

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« Reply #1332 on: March 25, 2020, 02:11:33 PM »
It is not known how long that peak will last as the numbers are stable but not really dropped off in any large numbers. The drop is only averaging only around 150 fewer cases per day which considering normal variance, essentially flat over the last week.

Your Italy graph resembles graphs from historic epidemics.  Do not worry about not dropping off "in any large numbers."  Historic epidemic graphs typically follow an inverted "U," not a "V."   I hope your  trend continues.

Italy's progress is important to observe because flights of infected China travelers to Italy occurred perhaps three weeks before infected European travelers started flying to and thru NYC.

What data do you have on hospitalizations?  Maybe hospitalizations is inapplicable if hospital capacity to receive new patients is constrained, even exceeded.

I ask so as to understand the NYC hospital capacity predicament.   The peak for number of infections in NYC is predicted to occur in 2-3 weeks.  And the peak for hospitalizations would be 2-3 weeks after the peak number of infections.   This has a way to go, and the bounce seen in the stock market over the past two days is likely not the start of a trend upwards. 


Quote
We've been in lockdown 18 days.


The mitigation measures in the US would not qualify as lockdown.  As I mentioned before, NYC Mayor de Blasio defended holding his staff meeting at a sweaty fitness gym, and 6 days later was in panic mode. 

Also, our lockdown lite has been less than 18 days in duration   Assuming Italy is a model, we will be hit harder than Italy other than for differences such as age demographics.

Quote
That will be +-2 months in strict lockdown nationwide, somewhat replicating the course in China. 

Long time.  What is Italy's level of concern about the Italian economy?   

Online Trenchcoat

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« Reply #1333 on: March 25, 2020, 02:21:28 PM »

NYC will be America's Italy. They failed to take early steps to prevent a big outbreak. King County WA on the other hand will have an outbreak that won't be big because we took early steps to be prepared. We bought hotels before we even needed them. Over a month ago Trump gave States the power to take matters into their own hands. NY failed to act early and will pay dearly but NY doesn't represent all America which pretty much did a good job flattening the curve. All nations will experience more outbreaks that will disrupt our lives and economies. Hopefully we learned from this first one on what not to do.

It's a pity NYC didn't keep control of the situation like the rest of America. In just that one city they are worse of than the whole of the UK. I kind of got the impression the UK generally started of slightly ahead of the US in terms of cases, considering in proportion to land mass. In the UK at present they are approx 8200 cases. The main worrying statistic is the number of deaths to recovery is at least twice as much, or approx two thirds dying at present for serious cases. Early days but hopefully they'll start to get it all under control as if that death rate keeps up it will be a pretty dire outlook:

http://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
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Offline fathertime

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« Reply #1334 on: March 25, 2020, 02:35:03 PM »
*WE*?!? I wasn't aware you included yourself to the distinction already?  Or are you just being presumptuous? Wishful thinking, perhaps?

Respectfully,
From a known exceptional and resilient Patriot.
Damn right I'm not 'exceptional', but you are free to believe you are since that is what makes you feel good.    All that said, the we was referring to all of us.  We are no more exceptional than other countries people who are taking on much more sacrifice than we have. 

Fathertime! 
I just happened to be browsing about the internet....

Offline GQBlues

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« Reply #1335 on: March 25, 2020, 02:37:23 PM »
I wondered how much public transportation have to do with NY and NJ's higher case count than California and  Washington. I think Dr. Deborah Birx mentioned that subways may in fact be instrumental in the virus transmission people-people in New York.

Interesting too the US already have 60K with 900 deaths, while the UK at +/- 10K already have half the death count comparatively. Smoking perhaps?

Holy SMOKES! Cigarette smoked so far today alone is almost at 10 billion!!!! 

Global births so far today at 239,000, global deaths at 100,400...Despite the viral assault, I think humanity will be ok for a while.

http://www.worldometers.info/ How the heck do they get this data?
« Last Edit: March 25, 2020, 02:55:15 PM by GQBlues »
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Offline Boethius

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« Reply #1336 on: March 25, 2020, 02:38:04 PM »
Big drop in the deaths from the virus in the UK today...41

We had project fear here with Brexit ,then climate change and now Corona virus.


It's not really project fear.  Don't you believe that the curve has been flattened with measures to isolate and keep distances?

The purpose of flattening the curve is so that hospitals are not overwhelmed by cases, thereby having to choose who lives and who dies, as allegedly occurred in Italy. 

This post was composed without the aid of google.
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Offline GQBlues

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« Reply #1337 on: March 25, 2020, 02:38:23 PM »
Damn right I'm not 'exceptional', but you are free to believe you are since that is what makes you feel good.

Thanks..

Quote
All that said, the we was referring to all of us.  We are no more exceptional than other countries people who are taking on much more sacrifice than we have. 

Fathertime!

No. Just you. :devil:
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Online Gator

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« Reply #1338 on: March 25, 2020, 02:50:45 PM »

because if you silly-assed rednecks just look at the little picture
you will verify what I have been tellin ya’ll here for weeks....

Thanks krimster, your semi-log graph is informative, and a good one for understanding the world situation.  I like the fact that the time abscissa starts the day of the  first 100 cases. 

 :applause:

Now for some elaboration and small correction.     

Quote
1. the USA has the highest virus growth rate of any country on earth!!!   we’re #1

The slope of the graph indicates infection growth rate.  For the first 10-15 days the slope for the US was similar to other nations.   Then it continued at the the same rate while most other nations displayed a smaller rate.   Italy, Spain and China had a less steep slope than the US, yet the difference is insignificant. 

Quote
or are you still trying to cling to the very last shred of denial?

Yes, I am in denial of your wild-ass projections, yet I agree with your direction.  You did not mention it, yet what is significant about your chart is that the slope of the growth rate is still positive for all nations.  You can add that fact to your long list of reasons to bend under and kiss your ass goodbye.   

Quote
Gator,
death rate will be proportional to quality of medical care and number of cases and when you have to implement triage on over 60 and "medically challenged"
currently in the USA, it is at 1.5% but I expect it to go up when ventilators and ICU beds will be gone and then when triage is implemented...

I mentioned that exceeding healthcare capacity constraints would cause a higher fatality rate. 


Quote
in addition by summer's end, we will lose 10% of our medical personnel to the virus....


Not 10%, yet I expect their infection rate to be larger than than the national mean. 

Quote
and you are in year zero of "After Corona", just a couple of months in...
if you were comparing the effect of the Corona virus on human destiny over the next decade
to climbing Mount Everest
we just took the second step today....

now do you understand?

I understand "herd immunity."   More important,  I believe in a COVID-19 Jonas Salk.  Compared to the 1950s we have 103X more research scientists and our technology could be 106X  better.  Together, that's 109X better research resources.  Fund the research!     

Online Gator

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« Reply #1339 on: March 25, 2020, 03:00:22 PM »
RUSSIA

From today's Moscow Times

Russia is facing a “serious situation” as the coronavirus spreads, Moscow’s mayor told President Vladimir Putin, adding that "the real number of those who are sick is much greater" than official numbers indicate.

The article includes a graph showing an accelerated uptick in number of cases.  I did not post the graph because its inclusion blows through the margins of these pages.   

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/03/25/coronavirus-in-russia-the-latest-news-march-25-a69117

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« Reply #1340 on: March 25, 2020, 03:07:00 PM »
ASDA Supermarket Superstores reducing their hours still further from 10pm to 8pm close. Could be due to the lockdown but more likely due to shortages of stock. Went into one yesterday and people seemed to be clearing what little left remained of any of the good stuff, just the stuff that wasn't that good left that very few want.
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« Reply #1341 on: March 25, 2020, 03:08:36 PM »
I wondered how much public transportation have to do with NY and NJ's higher case count than California and  Washington. I think Dr. Deborah Birx mentioned that subways may in fact be instrumental in the virus transmission people-people in New York.


NY city and State health department experts know that infectious diseases get transferred from person to person easily in high density populated areas and easily among those using public transportation. They learned that in school many years ago. They also should've been watching the news since January pertaining to what is going on in the world. NY State is the hardest hit State in America right now and probably will have done the worst job in preparing for this outbreak costing lives and more of their economy. Democrats like governor Cuomo's performance so much they think he should be president. Go figure.

Originally my State was the hardest hit but my government, all Democrats, actually did a good job in preparing before an outbreak showed up and they educated the public to wash hands and keep distance from each other. My government was disinfecting public transportation vehicles daily starting 3 weeks ago. NY took their kids out of school barely a week before their outbreak and only did so under pressure from the teachers union threatening to quit. It's pretty bad that the public knows better than the government on when to take action against the spread of the virus.
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« Reply #1342 on: March 25, 2020, 03:10:55 PM »
RUSSIA

From today's Moscow Times

Russia is facing a “serious situation” as the coronavirus spreads, Moscow’s mayor told President Vladimir Putin, adding that "the real number of those who are sick is much greater" than official numbers indicate.

The article includes a graph showing an accelerated uptick in number of cases.  I did not post the graph because its inclusion blows through the margins of these pages.   

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/03/25/coronavirus-in-russia-the-latest-news-march-25-a69117

Putin is in the photo with a yellow hazmat suit on.

Trump is speaking live right now! Dr. Tony Fauci is there too.
« Last Edit: March 25, 2020, 03:14:38 PM by BillyB »
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Offline GQBlues

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« Reply #1343 on: March 25, 2020, 03:24:00 PM »
NY city and State health department experts know that infectious diseases get transferred from person to person easily in high density populated areas and easily among those using public transportation. They learned that in school many years ago. They also should've been watching the news since January pertaining to what is going on in the world. NY State is the hardest hit State in America right now and probably will have done the worst job in preparing for this outbreak costing lives and more of their economy. Democrats like governor Cuomo's performance so much they think he should be president. Go figure.

Yeah, the news is mixed based on Gov. Cuomo. The rate of hospitalization apparently dropped. Mewonders if this have anything to do with the administration of Hydroxychloroquine/Azithtromycin. But in the same token, active cases is rising especially with the police force which he reported that 3,000 ? tested positive.
« Last Edit: March 25, 2020, 04:07:36 PM by GQBlues »
Quote from: msmob
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2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming
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Offline BC

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« Reply #1344 on: March 25, 2020, 03:33:31 PM »
Your Italy graph resembles graphs from historic epidemics.  Do not worry about not dropping off "in any large numbers."  Historic epidemic graphs typically follow an inverted "U," not a "V."   I hope your  trend continues.

An inverted U that is noticeably flat could be an indicator of the effectiveness of containment, but that's just a guess at the moment.  Will take statisticians to figure out how effective.  Luckily, a good amount of additional information will be available for them, maybe even tracking patient data as date hospitalized, when symptoms noted, when released, outcome etc.

Quote
Italy's progress is important to observe because flights of infected China travelers to Italy occurred perhaps three weeks before infected European travelers started flying to and thru NYC.

As far as what I recall reported, the first 'hotspot' outside of Milan was from a few individuals with further spread via hospital staff to other patients etc.  Believe down south in Rome may have been somewhat similar but more limited.

Quote
What data do you have on hospitalizations?  Maybe hospitalizations is inapplicable if hospital capacity to receive new patients is constrained, even exceeded.

Daily data is available here: http://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19/tree/master/schede-riepilogative/regioni   Just click on the link at the left for each day and you get the graphic listing.  Attached today's listing with titles translated.  This is the raw data used for the graphic front end at http://opendatadpc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/b0c68bce2cce478eaac82fe38d4138b1   I did not go so far as to crunch numbers in excel or such.  If someone wants the raw .csv data it's available somwhere here http://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19

Quote
I ask so as to understand the NYC hospital capacity predicament.   The peak for number of infections in NYC is predicted to occur in 2-3 weeks.  And the peak for hospitalizations would be 2-3 weeks after the peak number of infections.   This has a way to go, and the bounce seen in the stock market over the past two days is likely not the start of a trend upwards. 

Honestly I thought the large number of respirators Cuomo was requesting a bit odd, but defer to his experts.  Considering the very steep slope of infections it may not be that far off.  Just off the top of my head figure something like 10% hospitalized, and around 10-15% of those hospitalized in intensive care.

Over the years (even here) the number of available hospital beds etc is driven by normal demand and don't have much headroom for large scale crisis.

I think the stock market will drop again when the situation on the ground degrades and as the virus expands.

Quote
The mitigation measures in the US would not qualify as lockdown.  As I mentioned before, NYC Mayor de Blasio defended holding his staff meeting at a sweaty fitness gym, and 6 days later was in panic mode. 

It is scary.. how scary is only felt as reality creeps up on you.

Quote
Also, our lockdown lite has been less than 18 days in duration   Assuming Italy is a model, we will be hit harder than Italy other than for differences such as age demographics.

18 days is for the national lockdown that went in place 7 March IIRC.  Localized lockdowns in Lombardy I think started a week to 10 days earlier than that.  As mentioned before, localized lockdown didn't work out well at all, thus my fears for the US.  Also as mentioned in past posts the US may have some advantages, but think those factors only slowed the progress of the virus, but not stopping it.  It does not look good.  I was amazed today looking at the number of coast to coast flights still leaving and arriving at JFK  Talking tens of thousands of passengers going all over the US.  There are still flights here but vastly reduced and all travellers have to have a verifiably urgent excuse to get on a plane.  With fines in the 3-4,000 dollar range, nothing to sniff at and folks are getting caught.  The military are assisting police to catch folks not observing the lockdown.

Quote
Long time.  What is Italy's level of concern about the Italian economy?

Of course very concerned, but cash will be given out, renters and homeowners pretty much protected and of course all have healthcare and a halfway decent social support system.  I do believe folks realize the more instructions are followed, the faster we can dig ourselves out and get back to living. By now folks have settled into the 'new normal'.  The small signs of recent progress encourage folks to realize that it is working and there is light at the end of the tunnel.  I do feel the general sense of cooperation and calm and don't expect riots and such.  As unruly as the Italian mentality is, i.e. driving and parking, am quite surprised the lockdown is working so well, even patiently standing in line at the stores. OTOH it is quite scary Milan is not that far away...
« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 12:18:47 AM by BC »

Online 2tallbill

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« Reply #1345 on: March 25, 2020, 03:33:56 PM »
There are a couple of Forum Ninnies that should just skip over the next
article. I have no desire to cause anyone's brain to explode or cause a
death from exasperation.

For the America haters and Trump haters just skip over my post it will
help you keep snug in your opinion that you are better and more special
than the others here.

JUST SKIP THIS POST

You've been warned

Don't read this article!! !! !!


US was more prepared for pandemic than any other country, Johns Hopkins study found
The United States was ranked the best-prepared country in the world to handle
a pandemic in late 2019 by the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) and the Johns
Hopkins Center for Health Security (JHCHS) -- an assessment seemingly at
odds with claims by Democrats that the Trump administration left the
country vulnerable to the ongoing coronavirus outbreak.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/us-was-most-prepared-country-in-the-world-for-pandemics-johns-hopkins-study-found-in-2019


« Last Edit: March 25, 2020, 03:35:53 PM by 2tallbill »
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Coronavirus, how are you preparing for it and how it is affecting you so far?
« Reply #1346 on: March 25, 2020, 04:14:02 PM »
During today's press conference Trump was asked why he signed a bill where 35 million dollars went to a performing arts center. He said the Democrats wanted it and he had to give them something. He also said he likes performing arts and they are hurting due to the virus and it was a good to put some money there.

He said our nation has done more coronavirus testing than any other nation by far with the most accurate test kits. If true, there are nations that are using test kits that can give incorrect results. Also it may mean America's test kits aren't 100% accurate since the claim wasn't made. VP Pence later announced 432,000 tests were performed. 5 days ago America only had 104,000 tests done according to the website below. We did more testing in a few days than South Korea did in weeks.

http://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing

Trump says there will be a conference call among the leaders of 20 counties tomorrow. Sounds like they are going to plan for a unified fight against the virus.

A reporter asked Trump how many lives lost will be acceptable. Trump responded with "None."

Dr. Fauci said they are paying attention to the Southern Hemisphere for outbreaks as they head into colder seasons. He also said it's inevitable we will see things flare up again.
Do your part to limit the spread of COVID-19

Offline Boethius

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Coronavirus, how are you preparing for it and how it is affecting you so far?
« Reply #1347 on: March 25, 2020, 04:24:26 PM »
ASDA Supermarket Superstores reducing their hours still further from 10pm to 8pm close. Could be due to the lockdown but more likely due to shortages of stock. Went into one yesterday and people seemed to be clearing what little left remained of any of the good stuff, just the stuff that wasn't that good left that very few want.

Supermarkets implemented that here as well.  Most are open 8 to 8 or 9 to 8.  There are a few stated reasons.  One is to give workers a chance to rest.  The other is to give more time to restock shelves. Even Costco and Walmart have implemented these hours.  Most malls are closed.  In Ontario and Québec, all businesses but for "essential services" have been forced to close.  "Essential services" are grocery stores, restaurants (as some disabled people don't cook), and liquor stores(!) :o

I think the hoarding is down to people overestimating what they need. 

This post was composed without the aid of google.
True love begins when nothing is looked for in return.  Antoine de Saint-Exupery

Offline HoundDaddyLee

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Coronavirus, how are you preparing for it and how it is affecting you so far?
« Reply #1348 on: March 25, 2020, 04:27:22 PM »
Supermarkets implemented that here as well.  Most are open 8 to 8 or 9 to 8.  There are a few stated reasons.  One is to give workers a chance to rest.  The other is to give more time to restock shelves. Even Costco and Walmart have implemented these hours.  Most malls are closed.  In Ontario and Québec, all businesses but for "essential services" have been forced to close.  "Essential services" are grocery stores, restaurants (as some disabled people don't cook), and liquor stores(!) :o

I think the hoarding is down to people overestimating what they need. 

This post was composed without the aid of google.


In the US they are doing this also. Another reason for the overnight closing is to do a deep cleaning of the stores...


HDL

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Coronavirus, how are you preparing for it and how it is affecting you so far?
« Reply #1349 on: March 25, 2020, 04:35:10 PM »
bunker madness
a slow descent into a bottomless hell
with death by a thousand cuts...

I know now what Hitler’s last week in the Führer bunker beneath the Reichstag was like...
all the Nazis were constantly arguing with each other over every single little thing
and it was freakin’ driving Hitler totally crazy!

he would retreat into his own room and listen to Beethoven or Mozart...
but it did not ease his mood...

not even looking at Eva’s pale skin as she sat naked across from him in a silk covered chair
could comfort him...

Hitler was a desperate caged beast, raging against his own captivity

as I sit alone to escape the bickering tribe I am in
I am reflecting on the TV sitcom from the 1960s called “I Dream of Jeannie”

IMHO, Season 1, Episode 1 is totally HOT!!!
I mean you have a 31 year old blond beauty Barbara Eden cast as a magic Jin who pops up out of a magic lantern...

the show creates a HUGE sexual tension between the stunning Jin and the dorky American astronaut named Major Nelson who finds her...

she freakin’ calls him “MASTER”!!! and just adores him and showers him with her affection...
and even full-on kisses him on the lips, and wants to FREAKIN’ MARRY HIM!!!
and he’s like all, “wait-a-second-here” “”can we slow down a little”
well, when I see that, I’m thinking to myself WTF, are you serious....
I would have peeled that little Genie costume off her so damned fast
but if I did that, it would’ve blown the whole show!!!
because the whole show was about continuing the sexual tension between them...

I’m pretty sure that guys who watch the show, are supposed to fantasize sexually about the show, by putting themselves in Major Nelson’s shoes, but they will 100% in their fantasy of the show have Jeanie give them sex...

maybe all TV shows have this hidden fantasy appeal to its intended audience
I never watched TV before really, until now, but I'm guessing that's how "it's supposed to work"
but I may be wrong...
and a cigar
might really be just a cigar after all


« Last Edit: March 25, 2020, 04:39:48 PM by krimster2 »

 

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