Future of Russian Government

[Bruce]

I am suprised nobody commented or started a thread on Vladimir Putin's announcement that if his party is overwhelmingly elected he will return as head of the Parliament - with the head of Parliament having more power than the President, continuing the Putin regime in Russia.

[Blues Fairy]

I am suprised nobody commented or started a thread on Vladimir Putin's announcement that if his party is overwhelmingly elected he will return as head of the Parliament - with the head of Parliament having more power than the President, continuing the Putin regime in Russia.

I guess because it was so predictable. 

[Rvrwind]

No Surprise Bruce, it was pretty much a given...
No matter what happens or who sits in the chair I'll bet you  :usdeyes: to donuts Putin will be in charge!

[Turboguy]

I was surprised it was not being discussed too.   Prime Minster is what the news was.    His plan is to be Prime Minister then get a weak president in and shift the power to the PM.   I think Russia is on it's way to another lifetime ruler with close to dictatorial powers.   It does not bode well for the Russian people even though he has done a good job.

[Blues Fairy]

It does not bode well for the Russian people even though he has done a good job.

Good job?  You must be kidding Turbo. With so much political leverage, he's done ridiculously little to reform Russia's twisted economics, bank system etc.  Corruption is rampant, government inefficient, foreign policy screwed up - but the "pillar of power" is strengthening along with his personal sinecure.  Sure enough he doesn't want to go.

[Turboguy]

I am not much of a Putin fan but I think if there is one single measure of a leaders doing a "good job" it would have to be the feelings of the people he governs toward the leader and by this measure he has done exceptionally well.

In real world terms he has made a good start at reestablishing Russia as a world power.  The lives of the majority of Russian people have improved noticeably while he has been in office.   I do have to think that both are largely an effect of Russia's supply of oil and the higher prices it commands more than good leadership.

On a negative side he has sharply eroded democracy in Russia and the worst is likely ahead.  He has had some success against the Russian Mafia but I think that is more greed and the need to cement his own power and it is nothing near what needs to be done.   There have been a lack of reform in the way the economy is run and in the level of corruption.   

The good job I referred to depends on your perspective and what you measure.  I can find good but I think in the long term he is leading Russia's people in a direction that is worrisome to say the least. 

[Simoni]

What the word on the street is and what the reality is are quite different.

Those in the know, the experts who study the state of democracy, have sobering words about Putin...

"Russia's authoritarian slide under President Vladimir Putin had been especially damaging and dispiriting.  Putin has methodically hollowed out or co-opted every major institution--including the national broadcast media, the Russian Duma, Political parties, and regional governorships--that had achieved andy real degree of independence." Thomas Carothers, Current History, Dec 2004, ppl 412-416.


Also:
"the outlook for Russia is uncertain.  President Putin's recent crackdowns on independent media outlets critical of his administrationhave raised concerns about political and economic freedom." Jonathan P. Coh, Villaova Univ, in International Management, McGraw Hill, 206.

[wxman]

In the short term, Putin's plan to remain in power as future PM instead of President, may not be good for democracy, but in the long run it may benefit democracy. The power is shifting from the hands of the president to that of the parliament. In the future, more parties may end gaining more seats in Parliament and thus creating a true opposition party that will have more of a say in government than with the current form of a strong arm president ignoring Parliament.  It has happened in Ukraine already with a true split in Parliament and thus no one party is able to dictate, but instead must learn to compromise.

[SANDRO43]

In real world terms he has made a good start at reestablishing Russia as a world power.

T/G, the OLDEST trick in a politician's book is shifiting attention to the EXTERIOR, so that INTERNAL problems receive less .

[Serebro]

Good job?  You must be kidding Turbo. With so much political leverage, he's done ridiculously little to reform Russia's twisted economics, bank system etc.  Corruption is rampant, government inefficient, foreign policy screwed up - but the "pillar of power" is strengthening along with his personal sinecure. 

Blues Fairy, I hope you are joking as I can hardly imagine a grown-up person who hoped to expect fast radical changes in less than 10 years' time.
I still remember "radical " changes to improve my country very fast that were made by Communists in 1917, Gorbatshev's plan to get rid of alcoholics by destroying all gardens and causing numerous deaths of people after making and drinking home-made alcoholic drinks, and plus all those "old men"'(I mean Chernenko and Andropov and their company) laws to catch all lazy people in spare time and making them work. For some reason all those nice and fast and radical methods didn't work out, moreover some "smart people" died fast after making their brilliant reformes and/or the country got even more destroyed.
So I prefer not to expect a miracle of getting up in the morning in a perfect country with high salaries, low crime, no corruption and cleans streets a week after after chosing another president.
I am sorry , I love miracles, too but I know they happen very seldom, so I just prefer to concentrate of having a miracle in my personal life to dreaming about making my country perfect within the next 2 years.

[BillyB]

Serebro, maybe Russia's radical changes aren't radical enough. Someone needs to get a set of balls and start getting rid of corruption and keep the mafia from having a major influence in the government and in business. Then you may see if real democracy has a chance there.

[Blues Fairy]

Blues Fairy, I hope you are joking as I can hardly imagine a grown-up person who hoped to expect fast radical changes in less than 10 years' time.

Serebro that's a rather naive misinterpretation of my words.  It's as clear as a bell than any reforms take time to implement and even more time to result in anything.  But V.V.P had 8 years in which he could thouroughly reform the country and lay the basis for healthy economical and political development.  He did not inherit a particularly bad situation.  At the time of his election, the worst crisis was over; 2000 already witnessed some growth.  Oligarchs were strong but Putin launched a war in order to alinate them from politics (eventually he simply transformed them from private to state oligarchs. ) There was a comprehensive program of economic reforms initially approved - army, deregulation of small business, health care, communal real estate, administrative, financial etc.  - but never fully implemented.  Why? Because he was too busy curtailing the democratic institutions and strengthening presidential power.  A self-regulating economics and civil society never had a chance to develop.  And now he suddenly realizes that Russia is basically dependent on its oil pipe and starts talking about diversification - yeah right, as if he's gonna compromise the interests of its darling Gazprom.

"Après moi, le deluge" (c)

[Turboguy]

Miracles don't happen overnight except in the case of real miracles which are few and far between.

Putin has accomplished some good things but the worst thing is the weakening of democracy there.   Russia has little history of leaders who put the welfare of the people as an important issue.  Many of the leaders of the past have made big changes in Russia but usually with a severe toll among paid for by the masses.  The life of many in Russia is better now than it was but Putin has set the stage for a future that may not be that bright.   The good part is that once you give something to the people like a better level of prosperity then it is hard to take it away.

The other issue that Russia is going to have to deal with is the declining population. The best and brightest are leaving Russia.  Those who stay are having fewer and fewer children.  I have seen projections that have Russia's population falling under 100 million in a few decades.   Can you have a superpower with so few people scattered over such a large land mass?

[wxman]

China is a perfect example of seeing what happened in Russia in the early 90s, and not making the same mistakes. There was no safety net in Russia when Communism collapsed and it led to a worsening of living standards, which is only now turning around. China did not allow it's government to collapse, but instead of status quo, embraced capitalism. So now they have a one party capitalist state and have improved the living standards over that of Russia. China realized people prefer material things over democracy. Where did they find that example? Just by watching the American people.  We love to spend and spend and spend. We want it all now. Over the years we  seemed to forget what democracy is. We are run by a 2 party system, neither that care about democracy. We are not that much different from China anymore, other than we have a lot more money to spend. For now.

[Christian]

It will truly be interesting to see whether Pres Vladimir Putin in fact abides by his own statement that he himself respects the present Russian law and will not interfer with it to remain in power.  This is the same man that said he had a preference for a totalitarian form of government and has of late indicated that a strong military is important in this present world (probably because of China and the instability of India, Pakistan, Iran and Iraq - not to mention Syria).

Among Russian Orthodox (Old Believers) however, this inclination toward an authoritarian leadership is reminiscent of the hopes of many for a return to Tsarist rule, Russian morality and purity of Russian Orthodoxy within the Moscow Patriarchy. 

Christian

[timothe]

China's economy is improving, yes, but the Chinese government is hanging on by a thread as there is too much pressure on the government to employ everyone.  They are a big wooden table standing on two wobbly legs.

Russia's economy is improving, too, and Putin is in a better position to centralize power.  Corruption is a big problem because it scares away foreign investment, but the bigger problem may be the lack of a middle class.  I think labor unions are more important to Russia's economic comeback than government self-audit.  (Because a centralized government will NOT audit itself) 

There are a lot of Russian people, my fiancee included, who think it's more important that their leader stands up to the rest of the world than fix the problems at home.  Putin is loved by many who were accustomed to the "powerful Soviet Union" of the past.  I don't understand it, but I never lived there either.

[Christian]

Yes, the present strong though minority of Socialists wish for a strong centralized government to stabilize their own lives.  Germany has such a system in health care.  The horrors of the 90's with everyone scrambling to literally survive and make their own way almost negated the middle class in Russia. 

The mafia, unwholesome capitalistic ventures (porn), and economic debt were some of the culprits.  Putin has now all but entirely eliminated foreign debt and Moscow is now the most expensive city in the world.  The disparity is seen most markedly in the outlying regions.

People's innate desire and Russian's in particular simplicity, desire and acceptance of and for the normal and healthful way of life is doubtless one reason we see this phenomena of Russian women seeking love and security abroad.  And it is little wonder that sane men recognize and long for such a decent peculiarity, nestled in the personage of a Slavic lady.

Christian   

[ScottinCrimea]

There's no debating that among the Russian people themselves, Putin is immensely popular.  We can sit on the sidelines and debate the positives and negatives of his rule compared to our "democratic" society or our ideal view of how society and politics should function, but the bottom line is that, in the view of the people he governs, overall he is doing the right things.  I asked my wife about this and she had an interesting response.  She said that the Russian people need a strong central figure in government. They are not prepared for, nor do they want, all of the "freedoms" that democracy offers.  They are accustomed to being told what to do and they accept this in exchange for the relative stability and economic gains they incur.  She noted that without a firm hand at the helm, there would be even more societal problems than there are now because they are not accustomed to following laws that are not strictly enforced.  For example, she notes the example of Russians that have moved to America who don't respect the law because it is not as strictly enforced, so see it as something they can easily get around with little or no consequences.

[Shadow]

In a very large part of Russia they do not car who the leader is, as long as they can live their life without interference.
Russia has a democratic system, that however is done the Russian way. The leader is a face, the people leading the country you can not see. Where people talk about the influence of the Russian Mafia in politics and society that should change, reality is the other way around.

[Phil dAmore]

Of course Putin is immensely popular.... In case no one's noticed, there really isn't anyone else, is there?

Okay I'm probably going to catch he!! for this but it needs to be said:  Putin's popularity is a perfect example of a Russians total resistance and outright hostility toward any type of change.  They would rather keep what they have.. no matter how good or bad it may be... than take a chance on something new. 

This is why they will never ask for any help, and if it is offered, they will take extreme offense.

Nothing is going to change in Russia until the people themselves take back the country AND look outwardly for some better role models.  They don't have to look far, but then again I've never known a Russian to look beyond the end of their nose for anything.

I have my fireproof suit on.  Let the flames begin.

[Christian]

Of course Putin is immensely popular.... In case no one's noticed, there really isn't anyone else, is there?

Okay I'm probably going to catch he!! for this but it needs to be said:  Putin's popularity is a perfect example of a Russians total resistance and outright hostility toward any type of change.  They would rather keep what they have.. no matter how good or bad it may be... than take a chance on something new. 

This is why they will never ask for any help, and if it is offered, they will take extreme offense.

Nothing is going to change in Russia until the people themselves take back the country AND look outwardly for some better role models.  They don't have to look far, but then again I've never known a Russian to look beyond the end of their nose for anything.

I have my fireproof suit on.  Let the flames begin.

It is now also illegal to disparage any government official.

Christian

[William3rd]

Soooo-where are the Russians going to look for outside role models? Here?

I think that idea has already been discarded. Historically?

With their overall situation improving, the tendency would be to not change anything

[BC]

With cold war weapons laid aside, the battle has shifted to economics - and it seems that it is a battle that is being won by Communists.. LOL

I remember not so long ago China was being bashed for keeping the value of their currency low.. and now we see the USD sliding to record lows against other currencies in an attempt to fix internal and external aliments.

The Chinese are probably laughing their butts off.. who would have thought that manufacturing salad shooters would suck the US economy quite dry.

I'm quite sure RU is taking notes.

[Phil dAmore]

It is now also illegal to disparage any government official.

Yes it is.  They just can't have people talking poorly about their elected  appointed officials.  That might get some people actually thinking and that won't do.

Soooo-where are the Russians going to look for outside role models? Here?

I was thinking someplace closer to home.. like maybe Estonia, or Finland or even the Czech Republic. 

I think that idea has already been discarded. Historically?

Discarded?  I doubt it was ever seriously considered.  Historically?  Historically if it's  'Not Russian' it's bad.  If it's 'Russian' it's good.  Of course this flies in the face of reality.  Nobody who can afford it wants to buy, or own a Russian anything.

With their overall situation improving, the tendency would be to not change anything

Here's a news flash:  Things aren't really improving!!  It's all a facade, an illusion that David Copperfield himself couldn't pull off.  Yeah things are great.. In Moscow and Petersburg.  Go out to the villages and tell me how wonderful things are.

Russia has a democratic system, that however is done the Russian way. The leader is a face, the people leading the country you can not see.

Was this a typo?  Shouldn't it have been the leader is a Farce?  Russia is NOT a democracy... Russian style or any other style.  For starters, in democracies government is relatively transparent and not done in secret, or by executive fiat.  Democracies also have free, fair elections where anyone -and not just those approved by the sitting government- can get on the ballot.

I asked my wife about this and she had an interesting response.  She said that the Russian people need a strong central figure in government. They are not prepared for, nor do they want, all of the "freedoms" that democracy offers.

 

Of course they aren't prepared for it.  They've never had it, and for most of them they have been taught that it was a bad idea.

They are accustomed to being told what to do and they accept this in exchange for the relative stability and economic gains they incur.

 

What was that Ben Franklin said about those who would exchange liberty for security?

She noted that without a firm hand at the helm, there would be even more societal problems than there are now because they are not accustomed to following laws that are not strictly enforced.

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but there will always be societal problems.  And it's high time Russia started having REAL rule of law because that's what civilized people do.  They make laws, and then follow them.  If they get broken, then there are consequences.

When Russians learn to think for themselves then, and only then will real change begin. 

Unfortunately I don't think I can live long enough to see it.

[Mishenka]

Why they like Putin, 

Russia ended 2006 with its eighth straight year of growth, averaging 6.7% annually since the financial crisis of 1998. Although high oil prices and a relatively cheap ruble initially drove this growth, since 2003 consumer demand and, more recently, investment have played a significant role. Over the last five years, fixed capital investments have averaged real gains greater than 10% per year and personal incomes have achieved real gains more than 12% per year. During this time, poverty has declined steadily and the middle class has continued to expand. Russia has also improved its international financial position since the 1998 financial crisis. The federal budget has run surpluses since 2001 and ended 2006 with a surplus of 9% of GDP. Over the past several years, Russia has used its stabilization fund based on oil taxes to prepay all Soviet-era sovereign debt to Paris Club creditors and the IMF. Foreign debt has decreased to 39% of GDP, mainly due to decreasing state debt, although commercial debt to foreigners has risen strongly. Oil export earnings have allowed Russia to increase its foreign reserves from $12 billion in 1999 to some $315 billion at yearend 2006, the third largest reserves in the world. During PUTIN's first administration, a number of important reforms were implemented in the areas of tax, banking, labor, and land codes. These achievements have raised business and investor confidence in Russia's economic prospects, with foreign direct investment rising from $14.6 billion in 2005 to an estimated $30 billion in 2006. In 2006, Russia's GDP grew 6.6%, while inflation was below 10% for the first time in the past 10 years. Growth was driven by non-tradable services and goods for the domestic market, as opposed to oil or mineral extraction and exports. Russia has signed a bilateral market access agreement with the US as a prelude to possible WTO entry, and its companies are involved in global merger and acquisition activity in the oil and gas, metals, and telecom sectors. Despite Russia's recent success, serious problems persist. Oil, natural gas, metals, and timber account for more than 80% of exports and 32% of government revenues, leaving the country vulnerable to swings in world commodity prices. Russia's manufacturing base is dilapidated and must be replaced or modernized if the country is to achieve broad-based economic growth. A 20% appreciation of the ruble over 2005-06 has made attracting additional investment more difficult. The banking system, while increasing consumer lending and growing at a high rate, is still small relative to the banking sectors of Russia's emerging market peers. Political uncertainties ahead of the elections, corruption, and widespread lack of trust in institutions continue to dampen domestic and foreign investor sentiment. From 2002 to 2005, the government bureaucracy increased by 17% - 10.9% in 2005 alone. President PUTIN has granted more influence to forces within his government that desire to reassert state control over the economy. Russia has made little progress in building the rule of law, the bedrock of a modern market economy. The government has promised additional legislation to make its intellectual property protection WTO-consistent, but enforcement remains problematic.