Russia is at it again!

[topofthekey]

Having followed this story with interest- and not ever being to Georgia or Russia I thought I'd add my two cents worth. First so you know my background I was against the war in Iraq from the beginning. Since they didn't have nukes I wanted to spend more time working with the international community if we were going to invade. I was however duped by the poor intelligence just like everyone else.

When it comes to this particular situation I first have to note that if we are going by internationally recognized borders that Russia was the one that went over the Georgian border- not the other way around. These Russian "peacekeepers" are armed so I think that needs to be acknowledged as well.

I'm not taking sides with either country, but it would at least be possible that Russia encouraged the South Ossetia to start a little trouble so they could point to Georgia as the aggressors. This all still has to be sorted out, but this is one of the issues I likely would agree with the President of the USA on.

Keep in mind Georgia wants to join Nato and they are the only pipeline that avoids Russia to feed the west. So it limits the pressure Russia can put on Western Europe. Also if Georgia joins Nato all Nato countries will come to defense of this country if under attack.  All this plush the deal the USA has going with Poland is very upsetting to Russia I think.

Also, Russia signed an agreement to go back to things before the conflict and to my knowledge have yet to honor that. Russia's hands aren't clean here, and I would suspect they might be a little dirtier than some people on the board might think.

[wxman]

Are you kidding?
  I just picture Saakashvili chewing his tie and thinking; to annex S. Ossettia or to let go?  Or to blast the hell out of them?  Tough choice, for a country as strong as Georgia, with all its military power. 

I never mentioned Saakashvili, and how you connected the dots baffles me. First, if Georgia had a strong military such as Israel, the odds of having a doof like Saakashvili as president would be pretty remote. A strong military would likely have created a better atmosphere between Russia and Georgia. The people of Georgia would likely not have elected Saakashvili who throughout his administration has been using the fear of the Russian Bear to keep the people of Georgia behind him. By having a strong military, Georgia likely would have been able to negotiate with Russia about the South Ossetia problem. A more level headed and stronger leader would have been president instead of Saakashvili the tie eater. By allowing themselves to be weak, they took on the role of victim, and a leader such as Saakashvili used that to his benefit by using the claim of being a victim every time someone in Georgia sneezed. Respect through strength, and no one will understimate you.

[BC]

Having followed this story with interest- and not ever being to Georgia or Russia I thought I'd add my two cents worth. First so you know my background I was against the war in Iraq from the beginning. Since they didn't have nukes I wanted to spend more time working with the international community if we were going to invade. I was however duped by the poor intelligence just like everyone else.

When it comes to this particular situation I first have to note that if we are going by internationally recognized borders that Russia was the one that went over the Georgian border- not the other way around. These Russian "peacekeepers" are armed so I think that needs to be acknowledged as well.

I'm not taking sides with either country, but it would at least be possible that Russia encouraged the South Ossetia to start a little trouble so they could point to Georgia as the aggressors. This all still has to be sorted out, but this is one of the issues I likely would agree with the President of the USA on.

Keep in mind Georgia wants to join Nato and they are the only pipeline that avoids Russia to feed the west. So it limits the pressure Russia can put on Western Europe. Also if Georgia joins Nato all Nato countries will come to defense of this country if under attack.  All this plush the deal the USA has going with Poland is very upsetting to Russia I think.

Also, Russia signed an agreement to go back to things before the conflict and to my knowledge have yet to honor that. Russia's hands aren't clean here, and I would suspect they might be a little dirtier than some people on the board might think.

topofthekey,

There are many things that go on we here simply cannot see, both sides included.  Only the true inner circles know the intent.

From what we can see, each will form his/her own opinion.  Those that attempt to deduce what may never be known are bound for folly.

From what is known:

A long history of skirmishes between Georgia and SO.
The Russians supported SO and US supported Georgia.
Both Saakashvili and the Russians were poised for action.
Saakashvili was warned by the US not to attack SO.
Condoleezza Rice visited Georgia in July.
Georgia attacked Tskhinvali, causing major damage.
Russia attacked Georgian troops, drove them out of OS
Gori evacuated and military positions in Gori were destroyed by Russian troops.
Gori is for practical purposes untouched.
Russians either confiscated or destroyed tons of military arms and material.
A cease fire was arranged by France, but terms are still disputed.
Russia stopped offensive actions, and built defensive positions.
Russia has stated they will adhere to the ceasefire conditions, but will do so on their terms and time-line, which does not seem to violate terms of the cease fire agreement.
The US did not intervene directlly.
NATO did not intervene directly.

The rest is conjecture.

Had Georgia been accepted into NATO, I don't believe it would have changed much.  Georgian actions would likely have been deemed preemptive, and not a mandate for NATO response.  This is why Poland, when considering being a base for ABM missiles insisted on direct coverage by the US, as a NATO decision to intervene in crisis could take time.

They say a picture says a thousand words... one I saw, but unfortunately did not save was that of Sarkozy touching or pinching Saakashvili's cheek..  Many Europeans will recognize such a condescending gesture as 'Yeah.. you fycked up.. but let me help you get out of your mess'..

[topofthekey]

topofthekey,

There are many things that go on we here simply cannot see, both sides included.  Only the true inner circles know the intent.

From what we can see, each will form his/her own opinion.  Those that attempt to deduce what may never be known are bound for folly.

From what is known:

A long history of skirmishes between Georgia and SO.
The Russians supported SO and US supported Georgia.
Both Saakashvili and the Russians were poised for action.
Saakashvili was warned by the US not to attack SO.
Condoleezza Rice visited Georgia in July.
Georgia attacked Tskhinvali, causing major damage.
Russia attacked Georgian troops, drove them out of OS
Gori evacuated and military positions in Gori were destroyed by Russian troops.
Gori is for practical purposes untouched.
Russians either confiscated or destroyed tons of military arms and material.
A cease fire was arranged by France, but terms are still disputed.
Russia stopped offensive actions, and built defensive positions.
Russia has stated they will adhere to the ceasefire conditions, but will do so on their terms and time-line, which does not seem to violate terms of the cease fire agreement.
The US did not intervene directlly.
NATO did not intervene directly.

The rest is conjecture.

Had Georgia been accepted into NATO, I don't believe it would have changed much.  Georgian actions would likely have been deemed preemptive, and not a mandate for NATO response.  This is why Poland, when considering being a base for ABM missiles insisted on direct coverage by the US, as a NATO decision to intervene in crisis could take time.

They say a picture says a thousand words... one I saw, but unfortunately did not save was that of Sarkozy touching or pinching Saakashvili's cheek..  Many Europeans will recognize such a condescending gesture as 'Yeah.. you fycked up.. but let me help you get out of your mess'..

Makes sense. What bothers me is that one country violated another's border and sovereignty. The other thing that bothered me was noticing some posters tried to compare this to Iraq when Russia didn't hold one meeting at the UN or with anyone before invading far beyond what the seperatists deem as their territory.

The way I'm seeing this is at least a serious Russian overreaction at best and at worst it was the Russians trying to send a clear message to former FSU countries to try and keep them in line a stay away from NATO. Either way it doesn't look good.

The difference I see between any preemptive strike the USA has committed (even if I disagree with it) is that we go in to irradicate the evil dictator/ shell government and attempt to hand over power and control of the country to the people. The issue I had with it that a former oil man was the guy that made this decision and that leads to a lot of questions about his integrity and motives. In the same way those around the world must now be questioning Russia who was trying to defend some seperatists. The former Soviet Union trying to fight for the freedom of a South Ossetia? More like they want to absorb them.

And with past history why not question Russia's motives just as I would question our President. We entered WWII to stop the genocide and stop a dictator from taking over the World. We beached France met the Russians in Germany. The only difference is we didn't take over all the countries we saved from the Nazi's. So when Russia jumps an international border without talking with anyone. I think we all have the right to be pissed off.

[Ronnie]

Russians are moving missiles into Georgia.  The same missiles they used to subdue Chechnya.  They continue to build up their forces inside Georgia while saying publicly they are pulling out.  All with a straight face.  The cease fire agreement works for Russia very well as it lets them build up and position their assets unmolested.   
It'a a sweet deal when you can say one thing and then do the opposite.  Shades of North Korea and Bill Clinton.

[Ronnie]

I just heard that a new public opinion poll in Poland shows support for the US missile system jumped to 60%.

[topofthekey]

I just heard that a new public opinion poll in Poland shows support the the US missile system jumped to 60%.

I was just going to say that the USA is actually going to build a lot of support with the people (they already have the governments) of the FSU.  So who is Russia's biggest ally in the world now? Iran?

[wxman]

I was just going to say that the USA is actually going to build a lot of support with the people (they already have the governments) of the FSU.  So who is Russia's biggest ally in the world now? Iran?

I'm sure this didn't go unnoticed by the rest of Europe with Iran launching it's first 2 and possibly a 3 stage rocket with a dummy satellite. Rockets like these can easily designed to be larger and carry different payloads such as warheads. Single stage rockets are not too hard to design, but the ability to design mulitple stage rockets is a big leap forward. I'm sure Russia is probably not too thrilled with this either.

http://www.reuters.com/article/scienceNews/idUKHAF75296620080817

[Ronnie]

It was reported this afternoon that contrary to Iran's claim of a successful launch into space, the rocket broke up shortly after liftoff.

[msmoby_ru]

I was just going to say that the USA is actually going to build a lot of support with the people (they already have the governments) of the FSU.  So who is Russia's biggest ally in the world now? Iran?

Dear ToK

You need to remember that when Ronnie quotes re Poland ( a country that was occupied by the SU for 45 years following 5 by Germany) that there is STILL a DEEP  mistrust of Russia..

Poland and Russia have had recent "spats"  over meat products and tit for tat bans on various products..

I'm surprised it is ONLY 60%.

As you may know Russia is very good friends with Venezuela and other nations happy to buy it's arms products..  I was in Volgograd when Mr Chavez was in Russia with a shopping list..

[msmoby_ru]

I think public opinion in Germany is changing of late.  We'll see very soon.

..and on WHAT you you base this revelation?

[topofthekey]

Dear ToK

You need to remember that when Ronnie quotes re Poland ( a country that was occupied by the SU for 45 years following 5 by Germany) that there is STILL a DEEP  mistrust of Russia..

Poland and Russia have had recent "spats"  over meat products and tit for tat bans on various products..

I'm surprised it is ONLY 60%.

As you may know Russia is very good friends with Venezuela and other nations happy to buy it's arms products..  I was in Volgograd when Mr Chavez was in Russia with a shopping list..

I wasn't being 100% serious with the Iran comment, but I'm really not a big fan of the company that Russia keeps. I wasn't going to comment in this thread but after reading some posts about why is Russia looking like that bad guy in all of this- well I had to say something. I'm interested in their women- but not really very pleased with the country's government right now.

[wxman]

..and on WHAT you you base this revelation?

I think it was based on today's USA dismantling of the Germany basketball team at the Olympics. Today we found out, Germany can't play basketball. 

[topofthekey]

I think it was based on today's USA dismantling of the Germany basketball team at the Olympics. Today we found out, Germany can't play basketball. 

even with the help of Chris Kaman who is American.

[wxman]

Found this amusing and heard it made by a news commentator. If Michael Phelps was a country, he would have more gold medals that Japan, Russia and Korea. 

[2tallbill]

Dear ToK

I'm surprised it is ONLY 60%.

That's because just like the United States 30% of Poland's population are Neville Chamberlain
type appeasers  and think that being kind to aggressors will make them be kind to you and
and 10% have no clue that Russia and Georgia are even having a disagreement.

You will find the same everywhere. In Israel which have nearly weekly terror attacks you will
find 30% are doves. http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/terrorism/terrisraelsum.html

and the 10% of clueless, might be an underestimate LOL

[Ronnie]

I think it was based on today's USA dismantling of the Germany basketball team at the Olympics. Today we found out, Germany can't play basketball. 

Where was Dirk Nowitzky (sp)..  isn't he German?

[steviej]

Well, for you US guys, I really am kinda curious. Let's suppose that, yes again, Europe cannot contain the centuries old connections and chain reactions of hostilities, and the level of confrontation increases continually .....  again. Let's suppose that some kind of all out war begins to break out in Europe ... .again. For you US guys, I want to know: do you want to bankroll ANOTHER European bloodbath, leave the arms, legs and bloodstains of hundreds of thousands of young American men and women blown up on their European battlefields ... again ... All the countries of Europe, from the Baltic to the Black Sea, from the Urals to the Cliffs of Dover, have centuries of he said/she said; he did/she did, back and forth and back and forth. Doesn't anyone see the irony and ridiculousness here? Poland, yes Poland, could again sucker the US into another one of their never ending bloodbaths ?? Poland is no hero country. None of them are. This  stuff goes back hundreds of years and more. Europe can do it again for all I care if that's all they are capable of doing. My sons are of draft age. I would NEVER NEVER NEVER let them be called on to die on another European field of battle. Isn't there anyone in US that agrees with me, even a little bit ?? ?? ??

[Ronnie]

Stevie,
You talk about bloodbaths and 100s of years of them in Europe.  Doesn't the use of modern, high tech weapons change the battlefield somewhat?

Nowadays it's all about cutting off the enemy's command and control very quickly, eliminating his ability to see or know what he's doing and forcing surrender of isolated troops.  Far more prisoner taking than actual killing.  Warfare has changed.

[Misha]

Stevie,
You talk about bloodbathes and 100s of years of them in Europe.  Doesn't the use of modern, high tech weapons change the battlefield somewhat?

Nowadays it's all about cutting off the enemy's command and control very quickly, eliminating his ability to see or know what he's doing and forcing surrender of isolated troops.  Far more prisoner taking than actual killing.  Warfare has changed.

I agree with Ronnie. This is not necessarily new either. The classic textbook case of a small country besieged by massive armies surrounding it and coming out victorious with the help of modern, high tech weapons is Israel during the Six-Day War of 1967.

[Ronnie]

Russia's deputy chief of staff Col.-Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn told a briefing in Moscow that "today, according to the peace plan, the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers and reinforcements has begun" and said forces were leaving Gori.

Withdrawing from Gori, eh?  Only they aren't headed back to SO, they're moving closer to Tbilisi.. 

Very clever, don't you think?

[msmoby_ru]

Stevie,
You talk about bloodbaths and 100s of years of them in Europe.  Doesn't the use of modern, high tech weapons change the battlefield somewhat?

Nowadays it's all about cutting off the enemy's command and control very quickly, eliminating his ability to see or know what he's doing and forcing surrender of isolated troops.  Far more prisoner taking than actual killing.  Warfare has changed.

Hi Ronnie

tell us about these high tech precision weapons..

Are these the ones that the US dropped on the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade or on more than one occasion killed UK forces? ..

Ronnie, if the opposition DON'T have such weapons they might deliver a Nuclear reposte....

In this context we aren't talking about despotic regimes - we are talking about nations with mobile launched Nuclear capability. Precision delivered weapons won't take all of these weapons out and it only takes one lunatic...

[msmoby_ru]

Found this amusing and heard it made by a news commentator. If Michael Phelps was a country, he would have more gold medals that Japan, Russia and Korea. 

Hmm -obtuse thinking time...

it might be interesting to look at the medals table and factor in size of populations and sizes of teams..

On THAT basis smaller nations like Australia, NZ. Korea and even the UK are doing far better than the US

example :UK population 60 million - approx 300 in the team, 12 Golds .. US 300 million, 600/ team , 22 Golds .. it reads even better for Australia..


In fact - using this simple formula, the USA is acheiving on par with ... Russia !


BTW - What's the story about Beck Ammon ( an American, now naturalised Russian ) - playing for the Russian basketball team ?!

[Lit_1nce]

Well, for you US guys, I really am kinda curious. Let's suppose that, yes again, Europe cannot contain the centuries old connections and chain reactions of hostilities, and the level of confrontation increases continually .....  again. Let's suppose that some kind of all out war begins to break out in Europe ... .again. For you US guys, I want to know: do you want to bankroll ANOTHER European bloodbath, leave the arms, legs and bloodstains of hundreds of thousands of young American men and women blown up on their European battlefields ... again ... All the countries of Europe, from the Baltic to the Black Sea, from the Urals to the Cliffs of Dover, have centuries of he said/she said; he did/she did, back and forth and back and forth. Doesn't anyone see the irony and ridiculousness here? Poland, yes Poland, could again sucker the US into another one of their never ending bloodbaths ?? Poland is no hero country. None of them are. This  stuff goes back hundreds of years and more. Europe can do it again for all I care if that's all they are capable of doing. My sons are of draft age. I would NEVER NEVER NEVER let them be called on to die on another European field of battle. Isn't there anyone in US that agrees with me, even a little bit ?? ?? ??

That's a question with too many missing variables... It's like asking someone "would you ever kill someone ?" .. the answer is it depends on the circumstances.. Sure you will find some that say "never" but find they often change their answer when you throw in ever increasingly horrible scenarios.

Not many sane people want war.. It is best if you can prevent it I would think.. You should also not take too superior an attitude, as we have recently fought a war for revenge, and a war that was based on one thing, but changed to another after the fact..

[wxman]

Hmm -obtuse thinking time...

it might be interesting to look at the medals table and factor in size of populations and sizes of teams..

On THAT basis smaller nations like Australia, NZ. Korea and even the UK are doing far better than the US

example :UK population 60 million - approx 300 in the team, 12 Golds .. US 300 million, 600/ team , 22 Golds .. it reads even better for Australia..


In fact - using this simple formula, the USA is acheiving on par with ... Russia !


BTW - What's the story about Beck Ammon ( an American, now naturalised Russian ) - playing for the Russian basketball team ?!

At least we would be well ahead of China! Based on their population of 1.3 billion they would need 88 golds to match our 22. They don't even have that many medals!

Becky Hammons is from the state I live in (South Dakota). Many people here can't understand why she did that. She was upset that she didn't get a tryout to the US Olympic team, so she got an invite from Russia. Amazingly she became a Russian citizen in less than a week's time. There's a reason why she didn't get invited. Just watch her play.

Another sidenote, when Phelps won his last gold medal, it was the 1000th medal the US has recieved since they have be in the Olympics. What are the odds of that occurring?