Russia is at it again!

[Ronnie]

This is how Russia wants to get international respect?

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/08/georgia.ossetia/index.html#cnnSTCVideo

[Blues Fairy]

Well as long as international community will name any country who has more powerful military than its opponent "aggressor" by default, Russia will not have any respect.  The tiny fact that Georgia has actually started the conflict, hoping to be backed by the U.S., goes completely unnoticed.  Russia is kicking Saakashvili's ***, ergo, Russia is aggressor.

[diverboy70]

Well as long as international community will name any country who has more powerful military than its opponent "aggressor" by default, Russia will not have any respect.  The tiny fact that Georgia has actually started the conflict, hoping to be backed by the U.S., goes completely unnoticed.  Russia is kicking Saakashvili's ***, ergo, Russia is aggressor.

You are absolutely right! Georgia is the reall the aggressor in this event and really left little choise for Russia! They just made a big misstake in thinking that the International community would back them up. Fortunately most of the members of the international community saw through their little stunt!

[steviej]

I'm glad Russia is going to kick their *ss. This is a small regional conflict. The rest of the EU and especially US, should leave alone and stay out of it. Nobody likes to miss a good fight, though, do they?

[BC]

Well as long as international community will name any country who has more powerful military than its opponent "aggressor" by default, Russia will not have any respect.  The tiny fact that Georgia has actually started the conflict, hoping to be backed by the U.S., goes completely unnoticed.  Russia is kicking Saakashvili's ***, ergo, Russia is aggressor.

I spoke to my wife today who is within a day's travel by car from this area (just visiting).  I asked how the general feeling is about this conflict..  She responded 'shocked'..  not by the conflict itself, but by the reports she sees on TV (foreign sources) that blame RU for being the aggressor.

[diverboy70]

I also spoke to my girl today about this! She also said she can't understand why everybody is blaming Russia for this.

In my understanding Russia stood down a long time, while Georgia was building up the tension in the area, and left Russia little chiose but to intervene!

[BC]

I also spoke to my girl today about this! She also said she can't understand why everybody is blaming Russia for this.

In my understanding Russia stood down a long time, while Georgia was building up the tension in the area, and left Russia little chiose but to intervene!

..reminds me of an old saying 'contempt prior to investigation'.

[diverboy70]

Since the fall of the SU there has been a tension between Georgia and south ossetia. Most of the people in south ossetia having a closer connection to Russia than to Georgia. They have in effect been a sovereign part of Georgia, Georgia took the opportunity to try to take control of Sout Ossetia, when all eyes were on Beijing. They counted on support from the intenational community, which they didn't get. And of course they had nothing to put against the Russian army! Too bad for them!

[diverboy70]

The sad part is that once again people are dying in the hands of presidents that are not caring of their people!

[BC]

The sad part is that once again people are dying in the hands of presidents that are not caring of their people!

especially the most innocent of all - children.

[diverboy70]

Ón this I agree completely with yo BC

[thompsongunner06]

Children and old ladies are being killed. It is very crazy when a small country wants to take  on Russia. I do think Georgia wanted someones help(like the US). We do need to stay out of it,,we can talk to both sides but that should be it.

[Shadow]

In any war there will be victims. The difference is between if they are innocent victims or being targeted.
In our populated world the idea of a war without civilian casualties is an illusion.

[wxman]

I guess I don't see much difference between the US invading Iraq and Russian invading Georgia. Neither invaded country wanted the invaders in. One could argue the Russians living in Georgia wanted Russia's help, but this also could be said that the Kurds wanted US help. Georgia is an independent country, recognized by the UN including Russia. What right did Russia have to invade Georgia? It's an internal Georgian matter. Just like the US had no right to invade Iraq. The problems were internal. Russia, just like the US are spinning the wars to their favor and justifying their actions. What Georgia did was wrong, just like what the Iraq government was doing was wrong. We talk about the UN, but it appears both the US and Russia only use the UN when it helps them. Otherwise, the UN is ignored by both.

[Ronnie]

For a statement of the facts as they are and without bias, read:

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/1016/42/369709.htm

[wxman]

For a statement of the facts as they are and without bias, read:

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/1016/42/369709.htm

Very good read! It seems like whenever war breaks out, there are always plenty of excuses by both sides to justify their actions.

I'm concerned that Russia could use this same excuse to take actions against Ukraine, Belarus, Estonia, etc, that have a large Russian community. Anytime Russia feels that the "Russian" people in these countries claim they are being bullied by their country, Russia could invade and claim they are doing it to protect their Russian citizens. Estonia found that out the hard way when Estonia was cyber attacked and basically was shut down for a few days last year. The computer attack was traced back to Russia, and although the government said they had nothing to do with it, there is no doubt, it could not have been done on that scale without knowledge or blessing from the Kremlin. We must not forget that Putin was a major figure in the KGB, and fermenting political unrest is his expertise.

[Ronnie]

Georgia's President has described this as the beginning of a "well planned invasion of Georgia by Russia"  The systematic handing out of Russian passports to South Ossetians (who are not Russian), the proclamation by Medvedev that "Georgia will be punished" and the bombing of Georgian targets having nothing to do with the pretense that Russia is "protecting Russian citizens". 

These actions have everything to do with punishing Georgia for its desire to join NATO and the west.  There is no propaganda so meticulously planned as KGB (FSB) propaganda.  Russia is using the Ossetians as pawns in it's greater scheme.  Who's shocked?

[wxman]

It will be interesting to see Russia's response to what Ukraine said today. Ukraine said they will block the return of the Russian fleet to the Ukrainian port of Sevastopol, since the fleet is being used to blockade Georgia. Will Russia use that to justify reclaiming Sevastopol as part of Russia? This conflict could spin out of control in a hurry.

[BC]

It will be interesting to see Russia's response to what Ukraine said today. Ukraine said they will block the return of the Russian fleet to the Ukrainian port of Sevastopol, since the fleet is being used to blockade Georgia. Will Russia use that to justify reclaiming Sevastopol as part of Russia? This conflict could spin out of control in a hurry.

Interesting times may return.  The precedent has already been set many times over just to go in and kick butt when some 'strategic interest' are at stake.  US and Nato encroaching.. western economies and politics weakened.. oil dependency at an all time high with low reserves.. lame duck politics..  military resources already stretched thin...

Didn't someone write a book about all this? -Wouldn't be the first time fiction predicts reality.

It's tough picking sides when you don't know what's going on behind the scenes and who is really pulling the strings.  Doesn't take much imagination to think about a split Ukraine either..

[Ronnie]

When Sadam Hussein invaded Kuwait on August 2, 1990 he did so on his own and will bald agression.  He was ultimately opposed and beaten back by the UN Coalition.  Unfortunately Colin Powell and Stormin' Norman Shwartzkopf made the mistake of not removing the cancer and it grew back.  In 2003 after countless violations of the terms of the cease-fire agreement, the bulk of the coalition returned to finish up.

In this little adventure, Russia is clearly on its own.  On a positve note, while pride-drunk Russian leaders "believe" they can outsmart the west (we do let them get away with an awful lot of crap), they soon find out their calculations were faulty, but are smart enough to find a way to retreat and not commit suicide.  Gotta give them credit for that.

It will be a great day for the Earth and especially for Russians when their old school chekist leaders decide to stop kicking against the pricks and join the civilized world.

[BC]

But Ronnie... Bush looked into Putin's eyes and saw his soul..  Why in the world is he now so surprised...  Another lapse in intelligence?

[Lit_1nce]

It doesn't sound to me like Georgia expected things to go this far.. although it wouldn't do much against air or sea attack, destroying or severely damaging the Roki Tunnel would have pretty much isolated South Ossetia wouldn't it ?

[BC]

In a crackling exchange of a type rarely seen since the end of the Cold War, Khalilzad asked Russian Ambassador Vitaly Churkin whether the Russians were seeking "regime change" in Georgia with the military operation they launched Friday.

In response, Churkin objected to the disclosure of a confidential phone call between top diplomats and said "regime change" was "an American expression."

The term was one the Bush administration used to describe its goals in the 2003 invasion of Iraq, which Russia opposed. But Churkin said some leaders "become an obstacle" to their own people, and "some situations take courageous decisions with regard to the political future."

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/10/un.georgia/

Next up:

US will declare RU an axis of evil country..

US expats that pay taxes in RU are advised to report to the new processing center at Guantanamo Bay.

Automobiles with more than 4 cylinders are banned from US highways.

No.. it's not funny..

Interesting that the US and Georgia called the rare Sunday UN meeting... with an obviously ill prepared and rather undiplomatic US ambassador.

[I/O]

Ronnie: There is much more to this than the NATO thing, although I agree, it is a very significant thorn in Russia's side.

Augmentative threads abound all over the internet right now with scant regard to the facts. The first casualty of any war is truth and this is no different.


By agreement, with the UN blessing, both Russia and Georgia have had so called peacekeepers in SO for quite some time. Russia has been long annoyed by several things, NATO aspirations of Georgia, the threat to it's near monopoly of oil and gas supply to Europe and demands the trans Georgian pipeline connecting Caspian sea oil to the west not be built, but connected to Russian supply lines, Russia's hand picked president being rolled in elections in Georgia, territorial issues and of course there is divisions in Russia regarding Georgians as a result of the Stalin years.

There is a whole host of issues feeding this one, but it appears to me, the most significant near term thorns in the side of the Russian power brokers are Oil and NATO. Russia has clearly been well prepared for this for some time because in any military kindergarten, one learns that responses of this magnitude are not pulled together overnight as this has been.

The he did, she did, they did, could've, should've, would've thing is in full swing. The reality is that 8 Georgian state police stationed on the border zone of SO were shot dead (By whom? Nobody is quite sure, but most likely not Russian troops as although well prepared, this scrap is not in Russia’s interest at this time). The response was for Georgian troops to cut loose in SO and some Russian troops AKA peacekeepers were shot dead. The shcit then seriously hit the fan.

Georgia made a massive miscalculation and Russia has responded altogether disproportionately. A significant percentage of the Sevastopol based Russian fleet was mobilised and sitting on the Georgian coast within 60 hours. That simply does not happen without those vessels have been placed on high alert well in advance, weeks if not months in advance. Russia has directly and successfully targeted, by air, oil loading facilities on the Black Sea. These plans and the executions do NOT come together in five minutes. The significant Russian Generals have generally always been good planners but very clumsy executioners.

I believe Russia has seriously miscalculated the economic fallout of this one. Ho hum, another dirty little scrap in the Caucus region. But what? Russia's energy revenue is fairly secure right now but for Russia to move to the next level, which it clearly desires and certainly needs to do, foreign investment is critical. Anyone see the Moscow SX on Friday. Wait for today..............there is more dumping there than dumping of bombs in Georgia.

Ukraine is aggrieved because it’s arms supply to Georgia has been halted by the Russian actions on the Black Sea, thus eliminating one source of much needed cash flow. Russia is promising 400 million in aid to reconstruct/resettle SO. LOL, how familiar is that? Buy your friendship..!! The very thing Russia often is critical of the west and in particular USA for. What a difference it makes when you have a dime or two in your pocket to throw around. Never mind that half your people are earning $200 / month or less.

Russia has some serious developing issues from this one and matters that doubtless the big boys will be considering are the coming winter and the likely bog down if this continues more than a few days, not to mention the almost certain extension of this into the western province of Georgia, which is right next door to guess what? SOCHI..!! Russia needs to have this cleaned up and tied down water tight very quickly as a successful Sochi in less than 4 years time is critical to the perceived development of Russia as Moscow would like the rest of the world to see. Moscow 1980 / Afghanistan must be rattling around the proud heads of Russia right now.

One Sochi vender (distant family connection) dropped the price of a Sochi apartment which was under negotiation up till Friday by $50K Saturday morning to round out the sale. It is a small example, but Russia certainly doesn’t need that sort of thing right now to spread. Russia needs to end this very quickly for a whole host of reasons and not least of all, simple grass roots economics. I suspect that will not happen and although Russia will belt Georgia from pillar to post and win a battle in the short term, it may ultimately lose to some extent the wider war. Time will show and none of it is pretty.

I/O

[wxman]

What even more frightening than this conflict are the words from Putin when he said that Georgia had lost the right to rule part of it's own country.  A frightening similarity between the current quote and Hitler's reason for taking the Sudetenland. A tyrant is a tyrant whether he wears a suit or a uniform.

I think Russia actions also may have backfired. I would not be suprised if NATO now does allow membership for Georgia. I'm sure Russia knows this, and now has only one choice, and that is to topple the government of Georgia. The Russian Bear has backed itself in a corner. It doesn't have any more options, while the west has plenty that they have yet to use.