Dr. Phil Show Attacks International Marriages Friday

[Muzh]

The statistics are not comparable, because most American first marriage failures occur when parties marry early (under 25 years of age).   Foreign women are also more likely not to walk early because, unlike American women, they don't have the support systems in place to do so. 
 
I'm not suggesting the international couples are psychologically defective, though really, everyone is psychologically defective.  The trick is to find a partner whose defects cover your own.
 
The bottom line, for me, at least, is that this rationale for finding a foreign wife is not based in reality, and is yet another myth that should bite the dust.

 
Excellent points.

[HiTech]

Hello Daveman:
Dans data is what it is, but simply looking polling method (I.E. No random data of all mixed country  marriages)  Nothing from Dans poll data really can be used to compare to normal poll of all marriages. It does give a feel for where the line is but nothing accurate enough to compare sets.

Nothing has in any way been shown that divorce rates in any way equate to (screwed up).

So the statement that lower divorce rates (even if they are or are not) equates to less screwed up is is not a valid conclusion with out some supporting data.

Your also doing a very large cull of the data set (men seeking FSU women) that we are speaking of to only those getting married. The world looks at those attempting it, not just those how did get married. Many estimates I have seen say that only 40 - 50% of K-1 when the lady comes to the USA ends in a marriage.

Your also culling all the men who travel and never do convince a women to come to the USA.

I would say those 2 culls would include a much larger portion of "Screwed up" then not.

I have seen many people here  (Dan I believe in this  thread) try to exclude them self what the outside what the world would consider the MOB industry. Why would a person try to exclude them self if they didn't believe the world has a bad opinion of the group/boat.

I can only speak to my experience , but after have been threw the process I would not say the majority of people I have met are what I would consider having great lady prospects. Many men who succeed are good catches , but not the group as a whole.

I would also say that almost all of us here are not made from the normal societal mold. This does not imply any bad connotation , but most people do not fly around the world intentionally seeking a mate.

We all have our reasons. When I started this endeavor many AW would tell me I should look in the states. I would say I will be glad to, “Do you know any women with out children, never been married , who I will find attractive, and young enough to still have children?”. Beside these criteria finding a compatible women in the states would be much easier then looking over seas.

The next thing most would say is I’m to picky.  My simple answer was why should I marry a divorced women with children who doesn’t want any more when I have never been married and want my own children. Was strange that they could not answer that question.

Trying to justify a choice to look over seas with divorce rates, seems to me to be a long stretch at self dilution. Do you believe any serious person on this from used lower divorce rate as the PRIMARY goal to search over seas?  I don’t.

So as good old boy said, we are all in the same boat. If you think you are not, or do not wish to be, it may be that you already know what type of men that most of the boat is filled with.

HiTech


.......
Edit for hole/whole

[Muzh]

I can only speak to my experience , but after have been threw the process I would not say the majority of people I have met are what I would consider having great lady prospects. Many men who succeed are good catches , but not the group as a hole.

HiTech

I honestly, truly believe you meant as a whole.

[OlgaH]

I think when we take the general American statistics on divorces we should  take into account that the statistics include all the couples officially registered in the US irrespectively of a national origin.

[Admin]

I have seen many people here  (Dan I believe in this  thread) try to exclude them self what the outside what the world would consider the MOB industry. Why would a person try to exclude them self if they didn't believe the world has a bad opinion of the group/boat.

>>I have seen many people here  (Dan I believe in this  thread) try to exclude them self<<

Actually, you haven't - though others seem to have the same IMPRESSION as you. Interestingly, it was the OP who thought exactly the opposite of my position.

- Dan

[Daveman]

The statistics are not comparable, because most American first marriage failures occur when parties marry early (under 25 years of age).   Foreign women are also more likely not to walk early because, unlike American women, they don't have the support systems in place to do so. 
 
I'm not suggesting the international couples are psychologically defective, though really, everyone is psychologically defective.  The trick is to find a partner whose defects cover your own.
 
The bottom line, for me, at least, is that this rationale for finding a foreign wife is not based in reality, and is yet another myth that should bite the dust.

Which rationale is that?  That there is enhance marital stability in international marriages?  If so, I never made that claim and I don't remember anyone else making it either so I'm not sure that's even a myth in need of dispelling. I'd say the opposite is true, that most believe international marriages have a higher failure rate.  But I do agree, that (enhanced stability) would be an invalid reasoning for justifying looking abroad for a partner.


>>though really, everyone is psychologically defective.  The trick is to find a partner whose defects cover your own.<<


Now as BC stated, there's something I agree with, not 70%, not 80%, heh.. I'd say it a little differently, but the point is I*clap*dentical. 


[Now just for the hell of it]
 -- As far as the statistics being incomparable .. I'm not as sure as you are -  they are speculatively comparable (which is what we've been doing) because in most of these international marriages at least the men have been divorced at least once (have no idea the percentage of women). In the national average, the divorce rate for those already having one divorce is nearly 70% (IIRC). 


Remaining in an unhappy marriage = "Foreign women are also more likely not to walk early because, unlike American women, they don't have the support systems in place to do so".  At what point do they leave and how would that skew the data enough to make a real difference?   I'm just not buying that it is a) actually true in significant numbers (or longevity) proportionately larger than domestically, or b) if true would be numerically large enough to change the data numbers.  How would something like that be verified other than with further "stories" etc..
[/Now just for the hell of it] 


At any rate, no, definitely no enhanced stability promotion here -- I've been using data as a basis for a rationale to contradict the general negative perceptions and assumptions (myths) that "most men who marry abroad are [fill in the blank with something wrong with them]".



HiTech, you're correct in that I'm doing some extrapolative speculation (or maybe speculative extrapolation) in an effort to address the topic in a little different way than it has been in the past.  It's not really a right/wrong, yes/no, succeed/fail, black/white debate for me, but more of (my personal favorite) an exercise in expansive reasoning using empirical data for derivative logic.


You, Boethius, Ade, and others could be entirely correct.  I disagree that the numbers are not useful for a reasonable, if not precise, comparison.  It seems that everyone *wants* to believe that the group is more screwed up than average (controlling, whatever), but there's nothing solid really to back that other than hearsay, a few acquaintances that people have seen, posts on the internet -- and psychologically speaking, those stand out more and are more memorable to the human mind than normal ones.  We remember the Wayne's (train wreck) longer and more vividly than the WayneB's (happily married and vanished to live his life), so those former cases (memories) tend to pile up as the latter, less memorable ones dissipate.


And here's the kicker, I used to believe exactly as you guys (and gals) do, until I asked myself *why*? to which I couldn't find a real answer based on any real tangible evidence.  So, in a nutshell, I just flat no longer buy into the hypothetical assumption.

[Gator]

I have a few questions for men whose panties are in a twist because of the men on Dr. Phil's show:
 
-  Where is your pride? (blacks who have risen from the smoldering ashes of slavery have more pride)
 
-  Did you actually identify with those three men? (and seek solidarity with all men in this boat)
 
-  Does the general opinion of uninformed people bother you? (if you have felt shame, then shame on you)
 
-  Is there a better argument to the ignorant other than enjoying a blissful marriage? (and demonstrating grace)
 
 

[Admin]

A significant part of this topic has been dedicated to debate over the Survey of Cross-Cultural Marriage and Divorce. To allow this topic to remain on-point, I am going to offer several links to past topics that address the subject of cross-cultural marriage/divorce statistics in some depth. Here they are:

Announcement of the survey start -- http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?topic=7943.0

Announcement of the Survey Results Dec 2008 -- http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?topic=8770.0

Separate topic about divorce stats Dec 2009 -- http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?topic=10818.0

General post about stats and application to one's own success -- http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?topic=2829.0

RWD Age Difference Poll vs Survey Result -- http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?topic=8602.0

RWD Causes of Divorce Poll vs Survey Result -- http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?topic=8660.0

Additionally, here is an external link to a boatload of divorce statistics -- http://www.edivorcepapers.com/divorce-statistics/

The survey we conducted sought to answer several rather basic questions. As I pointed out earlier, I have seen (and most of you have seen it as well), two 'factions' on the opposite side of the issue - on the one hand you have a group claiming; "Cross-cultural marriages have a LOWER divorce rate because .... [yada, yada, yada] !" And their claim is met by another 'faction' who claims; "No! Cross-cultural marriages fail at a rate much greater than ..... [more yada, yada, yada] !"

If you have never seen this particular debate, then you may be insensitive to how often and how vociferous - and consequently, how tiresome - those kinds of arguments become. In the absence of any facts or data, there is no basis for either side to claim victory and it devolves into an internet shouting match.

Having seen it time and time and time again, the RWD management team decided to address it by either; (a) finding the definitive answer, or (b) in the absence of a definitive answer - develop the answer using accepted and objective statistical analyses. We ended up with the latter because we could not find the former.

Now think about it for a moment. If *YOU* were seeking to find an answer to a question - do you not imagine that you might start with simply asking that question to a large number of people? That is EXACTLY what we did.

There are comparative statistics - there are predictive statistics - there are reported statistics. In the Survey of Cross-Cultural Marriage and Divorce, there exists a large body of data that can be used for each of those - should someone choose to pursue it.

For now, and for the foreseeable future, there is no better body of objective data pertaining to cross-cultural marriage and divorce than what was produced. Are the claims reasonable? I submit they are entirely reasonable, and vastly more reasonable than those who prefer to SHOUT DOWN others with nothing more than opinion. Are they perfect? Absolutely not - and we acknowledged they would not be perfect from the day we completed preparation of the survey instrument. It can be argued there is no such thing as a perfect survey - and this one is no exception. That does NOT diminish its value to anyone who has an objective, analytical mind and wishes to be better informed.

BTW Boe - in one of the links above I saw a link to a Russian internet article. Perhaps that is one of them you were recalling earlier?

- Dan

[Rubicon]

I have a few questions for men whose panties are in a twist because of the men on Dr. Phil's show:
 
-  Where is your pride? (blacks who have risen from the smoldering ashes of slavery have more pride)
 
-  Did you actually identify with those three men? (and seek solidarity with all men in this boat)
 
-  Does the general opinion of uninformed people bother you? (if you have felt shame, then shame on you)
 
-  Is there a better argument to the ignorant other than enjoying a blissful marriage? (and demonstrating grace)
 
 

The best revenge is Success!!  why worry about failures of others--be happy with your own successful relationships!

[HiTech]

Daveman, the assumption that most are divorced does not match with dans survey.

http://www.goodwife.com/survey/xcultural_p13.html

It is showing only 50 50 were divorced.

May be do to many more non divorced women. Not sure. I thought I had seen one seperated male female but could not find it back.

HiTech

[Admin]

Daveman, the assumption that most are divorced does not match with dans survey.

http://www.goodwife.com/survey/xcultural_p13.html

It is showing only 50 50 were divorced.

May be do to many more non divorced women. Not sure. I thought I had seen one seperated male female but could not find it back.

HiTech

Ref. This Chart (asking if respondents were previously married to someone from their own country/culture):



Sounds like you are asking if that particular result would be different if parsed by gender. I seem to recall looking at that question at some point, but will again when I get some time.

- Dan

[Daveman]

Daveman, the assumption that most are divorced does not match with dans survey.

http://www.goodwife.com/survey/xcultural_p13.html

It is showing only 50 50 were divorced.

May be do to many more non divorced women. Not sure. I thought I had seen one seperated male female but could not find it back.

HiTech

That most men who do this have already been marriedorced has been another long standing assumption (which could very well be another in a plethora of erroneous assumptions touted by "common wisdom").  It would be very interesting if that data could be parsed by gender.


Still, even so, there's nothing that anyone has presented thus far which would convince me that the data percentage numbers, or subset of divorces (even if included domestically) are not comparable.  If we remove a subset with a 41% ratio from an overall set with a 51% ratio (or equivalent 41% ratio), though the number of total divorces decreases,  the domestic percentage numbers still don't significantly change.... yes? or no?  anyone with a background in statistics who can shed light on how the inclusion of the 41% ratio subset changes the domestic values?  Mathematically speaking, the above bold comment makes sense to me, but admittedly, statistics related number crunching is not my forte' so I may be missing something important.


Some points to ponder would be:

• Boethius' figure that the average year of divorce is 14 in domestic marriages.
• Misha's point of measuring the same time period of 10 or so years.
• Ed's and OlgaH's - the data is already included in the domestic rates, so changes the overall numbers.
• HiTech - no empirical data linking divorce to one or both partners actually being *screwed up*. 
• It seems most of you disagree with my logic in this thread -- but I still can't shake it loose (and I've been very open-minded when reading the counterpoints).  It just seems logical to me that if MOST of the men were somehow screwed up, this 41% divorce rate would be higher. Yes, it's admittedly speculative, but to me it's completely logical, looking at empirical data and shunning any preconceived notions, common wisdom assumptions, hearsay reasoning, etc.  It just flat makes sense.

[Admin]

That most men who do this have already been marriedorced has been another long standing assumption (which could very well be another in a plethora of erroneous assumptions touted by "common wisdom").  It would be very interesting if that data could be parsed by gender.

One of the advantages of having a LOT of data is that it is often able to be parsed into smaller subgroupings for deeper analysis.

In this case, the percentage of Female respondents having been previously married to someone from their own country/culture was 43 % (the aggregate without gender split was just under 50 %). The percentage of Male respondents was 51 %. So while there was some gender disparity, it is far from an overwhelming disparity and I suspect would not make much, if any, difference in deciding course of actions.

FWIW

- Dan

[Rubicon]

The more I think about this show the more I think that Boethius is right.  These men needed help and advice.  Dr. Phil gave it to them.  if anything he was kind and generous to them.  expecting the media to tell a more rounded story is wishful thinking.  there will always be media like Tyra Banks which attacks the women as being "gold diggers" which is probably not true.  most of the women do wish long term happiness.  there will be some younger model looking women who will go after wealthy older men.  that is mutual.  there are nearly as many white American women who are gold diggers.  probably more Asian women who are. 

some of the men will be overweight unattractive old men who marry younger women who just want to leave Ukraine Russia maybe for a better life. 

of the three men on the show I thought the controlling man had the best chance of changing his attitude and saving his marriage.  if he allows the woman to have her liberty and be herself he has a chance.

the 400 lb obese bald man has the least chance for success IMO.  the 60 yr old man claiming to be 56 maybe just slightly better odds.

Was there not a morning show with Matt Lauer which did show respect towards the OP and his wife??  dwell on that success and do not worry about other "failures".  the media likes to sensationalize failure.  it's never going to change!

[OlgaH]

Dan,

how married couples who completed the survey sheet twice (one from a husband and one from a wife) were counted? Like one "still married" or like two "still married"?

[GQBlues]

Dan-
 
A very healthy amount of ex-pats (both gender) can in fact can be lumped with the whole MOB industry...the Mamba network (mail.love.ru; rambler.love.ru, etc...) alone is a testament to that. Can a Russian-American petitioning a FSU national be considered 'cross cultural'? Along with, of course, other locations where the MOB thrive.
 
On one of Tyra Banks Show, they did a show that explored a recent publication report which stated 75% of interracial dating (marriages?) are between Asian women and American males (not sure if this is just domestically).
 

 
On the foreign front, this study correlate and supports DHS's yearly report that the Asian MOB sector produce a far larger number of K-visas issued from the region every year compared to those coming from the FSU.
 
Then of course, we still have the SA region...
 
Having said this, I'm not certain if your statistical (divorce) analysis accounted for these tangibles. If so, how can this be in anyway relevant in terms of being 'helpful' to your average American male interested in pursuing a marriage with a FSUW by way of the MOB?
 

[Admin]

Dan,

how married couples who completed the survey sheet twice (one from a husband and one from a wife) were counted? Like one "still married" or like two "still married"?

That data was not collected. If you look at the report from Statistics Solutions (found here -- http://www.goodwife.com/survey_report.pdf), on page 14 in Appendix A you will find a functioning link to a hardcopy version of the survey collection tool. Here is the link -- http://www.goodwife.com/survey/Survey_Form.pdf.

That tool shows every question asked and represents the entire range of data collected. It is only from this data that statistics may be developed.

- Dan

[Rubicon]

When looking at statistics of how many marriages fail between American men married to American women, and AM married to FSUW, I prefer to also consider how many AW cancel planned marriages to AM, and how many FSUW cancel planned marriages to AM.  It seems to me that there is a high percentage of women who come here on a 90 day fiance visa and than leave without marrying the man.  If you include this fact than the failure of AM to FSUW is probably much higher than AM to AW.

[Faux Pas]

I'm not suggesting the international couples are psychologically defective, though really, everyone is psychologically defective.  The trick is to find a partner whose defects cover your own.
 

Someone put this in the Hall of fame quotes 

[Admin]

When looking at statistics of how many marriages fail between American men married to American women, and AM married to FSUW, I prefer to also consider how many AW cancel planned marriages to AM, and how many FSUW cancel planned marriages to AM.  It seems to me that there is a high percentage of women who come here on a 90 day fiance visa and than leave without marrying the man.  If you include this fact than the failure of AM to FSUW is probably much higher than AM to AW.

Look closely at the emboldened and colored text and let me know if you see the contradiction.

- Dan

[OlgaH]

That data was not collected.
- Dan

So, there all the possibilities that the married couples could complete the same survey twice and one marriage could be counted as two.

[Admin]

So, there all the possibilities that the married couples could complete the same survey twice and one marriage could be counted as two.

Yeah - I suspected that was your reason for asking the question. OK. If that makes sense to you. I am weary of explaining it. Maybe somebody else can take a crack. I will only say that the conclusion you've drawn, while valid, is wholly inconsequential in terms of the questions asked, the data collected, and the conclusions to be drawn.

- Dan

[Admin]

Dan-
 
A very healthy amount of ex-pats (both gender) can in fact can be lumped with the whole MOB industry...the Mamba network (mail.love.ru; rambler.love.ru, etc...) alone is a testament to that. Can a Russian-American petitioning a FSU national be considered 'cross cultural'? Along with, of course, other locations where the MOB thrive.
 
On one of Tyra Banks Show, they did a show that explored a recent publication report which stated 75% of interracial dating (marriages?) are between Asian women and American males (not sure if this is just domestically).
 

 
On the foreign front, this study correlate and supports DHS's yearly report that the Asian MOB sector produce a far larger number of K-visas issued from the region every year compared to those coming from the FSU.
 
Then of course, we still have the SA region...
 
Having said this, I'm not certain if your statistical (divorce) analysis accounted for these tangibles. If so, how can this be in anyway relevant in terms of being 'helpful' to your average American male interested in pursuing a marriage with a FSUW by way of the MOB?

GQ,

There is no doubt that vastly more K-visas are issued to foreign nationals from Asia than from FSU countries. I posted some stats on this a while back (here is the post -- http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?topic=12882.msg255233#msg255233, complete with attached spreadsheets), and it is entirely consistent with my understanding and experience of both living in Asia and now working with IMBs like Cherry Blossoms who primarily focus on Asia.

Once again, if you read the report (it is amazing the number of answers that skimming through about 15 internet pages will provide  ), you will see that we collected data from every region (Asia, Latin America and the FSU), and had participation in the awareness campaign from IMBs serving Latin America and FSU.

One of the links I posted upthread sought to address the question of applying statistical results to one's own 'situation.' I will be the first to confess that I often discard stats that do not comport with what I want to hear - BUT - I am always interested in those statistics, if for no other reason than they help to frame the amount of risk I am preparing to accept.

But that is just me. Others are quite content with ignoring all such stats and going about their merry way - in support of the ancient adage that 'ignorance is bliss.' For those who are more analytical, I contend having facts and data is helpful. It may not dissuade or persuade them one way or another, but more informed is, I believe, always better than under-informed (or worse - ill-informed).

- Dan

[OlgaH]

I will only say that the conclusion you've drawn, while valid, is wholly inconsequential in terms of the questions asked, the data collected, and the conclusions to be drawn.

- Dan

we, my husband and I, completed the survey's sheet twice, so there is one more marriage in the survey's conclusions. I at least know one couple who did the same.  How many such couples did the same we don't know as the data was not collected. Probability that the ex-spouses have done the same are minimum, I think, so there cannot be 50/50. But of course we can just conjecture 

[Admin]

we, my husband and I, completed the survey's sheet twice, so there is one more marriage in the survey's conclusions. I at least know one couple who did the same.  How many such couples did the same we don't know as the data was not collected. Probability that the ex-spouses have done the same are minimum, I think, so there cannot be 50/50. But of course we can just conjecture 

No, there is no conjecture whatsoever. At least, not on the part of anyone who has sufficient intellect to understand what was done.

The online survey tool contains nearly fool-proof controls to insure that no one person is able to complete multiple entries into the tool and thereby distorting the results. That seems to be what you claim that you and Robert did. Do I understand you correctly?

Even if you *did* make that attempt, it was unsuccessful. I am supremely confident that the tool and ensuing parsing of data nullified any distortion of the type you describe - whether intentional or accidental.

- Dan