Belarus Revolt...Stay Tuned

[andrewfi]

Mischief ~ I did not contradict myself. Please reread and confirm. Bruce made a point that was valid, I clarified by noting that whislt, as you pinted out the isues yonoted had existed in Soviet times, these issues had grown in significance since - hence the relative nature of the situation. English, such a hard language.

[andrewfi]

When countries found themselves free of the 'yoke' of the USSR they had, in general, two choices about how to deal with their future economic development. The first choice was to change horses, open up the economy to outside (western) investment and open the floodgates to allow unbridled access to the assets of the country to outside investors and world competition.

The second alternative was to recognise that the remnants of the Soviet system were not competitive on world markets and that, recognising that by opening up markets, fully, to outside investment, ownership and management would almost certainly lead to acute disruption for the citizenry. Thus some countries chose to redevelop and realign based upon the country's internal resources.

For each group, the recognition, blindingly obvious, was that the Soviet system had failed, that a command economy can be effective for only a short period of time (no matter how much the citizenry want to continue!)

Estonia and the other Baltic states chose the former route and Ukraine and Belarus chose the latter. The effect upon the Baltic states was an early an huge disruption, but a relatively rapid growth in investment and living standards. The effect upon Belarus and Ukraine was a slower more measured response, but one where industries are becoming world competitive and are still owned and controlled by local interests, with growthrates that Estonia, itself no laggard in European terms, can only look upon and envy. In Estonia, for example, most large firms are now owned by foreign companies, agriculture has been reduced to a shadow of its former self and much infrastructure has been destroyed. Now we start to see the real costs of this strategy. The foreign firms that control Estonian manufacturers and to a lesser degree service enterprises, control the degree of expansion available to them. In effect, a cap has been placed upon the potential for development. As soon as a new firm springs up and appears to be either comeptitive or innovative, it is bought up and either closed, or reduced in effectiveness. In Ukraine, by contrast, business sectors that would have been closed, if controlled by foreign interests (on the basis of lack of comparitive advantage) are now thriving and world competitive. There is no limit on the potential for Ukraine's growth and success, other than its own errors and mismanagement, as has happened since the new governement took over and started to once again redistribute the spoils of victory...

Belarus having followed a similar route to Ukraine has enjoyed similar success. it is important to remember that a country and nation exists for generations, not for months. It may well be that a generation or two from now, people will have a more clear picture of the relative success of the two economic development routes. I do know that the current Estonian leadership cadre does have some serious doubts about choices made 15 years ago, but they know that they are powerless to make changes now. That an overwhelming majority support Lukashenko speaks for how the mass of people feel and think. Ukraine and Belarus see foreign investment as being a part of an economic imperialism, they have avery good point, even though it is not entirely true. But investment and ownership are instruments of control and when the recipient is weak, the stronger party can and will (must) take advantage of that reality.

Governments, in the longer term reflect the needs and aspirations of the people ALWAYS. What is appropriate for the US is not appropriate, as a form of government, for the UK; even less so for Ukraine, Russia, or indeed Belarus. Times change and, undoubtedly, Lukashenko knows it. His time will pass, but an opposition that according to independent pre-election polls can muster only 6% of the electorate will not hasten that passing.

The above is a very, very brief overview of a very complex area, there are few absolutes and individuals who have benefitted, or otherwise will have personal stories to tell, but in the end, a nation is not individuals, but a group of people and in the end, it is the compromises made with the group that are significant. (sounds a tad Marxist, but it is nonetheless true, even a US style democracy is not about the individual, but about large groups, a voter is only significant as part of a bloc)

[tim 360]

Appears now the the EU and US will jointly blacklist Lukashenko and his top 50 in his regieme.  For election fraud and jailing of hundreds.  Puts him on par with Mugabe.  No travel to EU or US or ability to fly their airlines to anywhere.  That is sort of a weak and pointless penalty.  But the freezing of their international assets etc could be a problem?

I am sure there was alot of election fraud and the mass jailings are documented.  My question Andrew is this:  If Lukashenko does enjoy such a huge margin of victory and the support of so many of the people---why the need for the election frauds and jailing the hundreds of protesters???  Paranoia?

Why dummy the #'s and throw the protesters in crude jails if nearly all of the populace elected you?  Makes no good sense.

[andrewfi]

The first point is this. was there actually widespread election fraud?

The results of the elctions match very closely the results predicted by independent polls prior to the election and even the the election observers who criticised the election process did say that Lukashenko had overwhelming popular support.

The people arrested were arrested as per the laws of the country, in just the same manner as demonstrations are now restricted in the US. Break the law, get arrested; same-same. Lukashenko had made it quite clear BEFORE the election what would happen and given what happened in Ukraine, this made good sense from a public order point of view, if for no other reason. Also, it should be noted that the leaders of the opposition both asked their supporters to go home and not demonstrate, although one the opposition leaders did then renege on his agreement with his co-competitor nad got people to stay on, about 300 of them IIRC.

[mischief]

Mischief ~ I did not contradict myself. Please reread and confirm. Bruce made a point that was valid, I clarified by noting that whislt, as you pinted out the isues yonoted had existed in Soviet times, these issues had grown in significance since - hence the relative nature of the situation. English, such a hard language.

English won't be that hard if correct terms were used like low rate of crime, drug addicts, prostitution etc.

 

[andrewfi]

Mischief, I think you are mistaking what I wrote with what others wrote, I made a clsirification that you seem to have confused with the original post. An easy mistake to make when one is reading at haste and without care.

[mischief]

The people arrested were arrested as per the laws of the country, in just the same manner as demonstrations are now restricted in the US. Break the law, get arrested; same-same. Lukashenko had made it quite clear BEFORE the election what would happen and given what happened in Ukraine, this made good sense from a public order point of view, if for no other reason. Also, it should be noted that the leaders of the opposition both asked their supporters to go home and not demonstrate, although one the opposition leaders did then renege on his agreement with his co-competitor nad got people to stay on, about 300 of them IIRC.

There is no such law to take people out of the streets, beat them, and put them in jail with no rights or way of communication with at least relatives… My cousin (a fool!)  is arrested … nobody knows where he is and what's going on!

Not than once people from Lukashenko provoked protesting young men trying to organize fights or bringing alcohol to the tents… to my knowledge,  they even had a motto : "who drinks  alcohol - supports Lukashenko !"

Lukashenko did it because as a dictator he can't tolerate any opposition in action not because he was threatened… as I mentioned before it's just his way of dealing with a mess… and was very stupid political move…

[mischief]

Mischief, I think you are mistaking what I wrote with what others wrote, I made a clsirification that you seem to have confused with the original post. An easy mistake to make when one is reading at haste and without care.

 

Andrew, my main point was that terms like crime free, lack of addiction ... used by Bruce were not correct... people who doesn't know anything about Soviet Union might get impression that it was a perfect time all these years... that's all

Nonetheless, I think you are very intelligent person and I like reading most of your posts…

 

[BillyB]

mischief,

I suspect the protestors will be convicted of a crime because it is against the law to criticize Lukashenko according to the Parade Magazine link in one of my earlier posts. there is no doubt in my mind the protestors had used choice words when referring to the President. The question I would have is what is the penalty for that crime? 10 years? 50 years? Solitude? Death?

Based on the number of arrests, I guess it's safe to say the crime rate has increased in Belarus.

[pitbull]

its really weird to read positive posts about the situation in Belarus and its president from you, guys, who live in free democratic countries...
I just happen to be in Belarus (have been here for 2 months), I observe the situation as it is...
And I can't keep feeling like I'm in a sort of surrealistic reality....as if the history is really repeating and we're back in 1930-ieth, but only in the 21st century and in the center of Europe.
The real dictatorship exists in Belarus now-with no freedom of choice and expression, no freedom of press and no sources of independent information (there is only one independent , non-government newspaper left, which is practically impossible to buy already within an hour after it gets to the press kiosks) with the atmosphere of fear, fear to say smth. against the regime and lose the job or being expelled from the University, with arrests etc...
The economic stability of Belarus now is an illusion which can only last until Russia sells oil and gas for lower prices...
Plus the country is on the edge of demographic catastrophy-lots of people simply cannot afford a child...and lots of young people are emigrating, just leaving the country by all means...
Within the 6 months I haven't been in Belarus the situation has got far worse, especially the political atmosphere...
I'm sure you guys would be the first ones to protest or to leave a country living in a country like Belarus...

[mischief]

The things are getting worse there.. : http://67.18.131.22/eng/news/

http://67.18.131.22/eng/news/2006/03/25/war

 

[mischief]

Lukashenko is just stupid stupid man!  I can guarantee that if he didn't suppress and brutalize protestors all the opposition would die out relatively quick… But his ego got in the way and now he gave the reason to revolt… obviously they won't be able to kick him out now because a big part of the population is in the military-police… but it's just a matter of time now ….all they need to turn enough military people against him…

[Oosik]

Let's not sit back in the free world and make apologies and  rationalizations for communist oppressors. It may be fashionable in  some circles, but it doesn't cut the mustard for those of us who have  been there.

Not that you have to go there to know that the people want to be free. And not that going there makes one a genius either.

The sad thing is Russia supports him, and now that news has come out  that Russia provided intelligence to Saddam while the US was engaged,  Putin will undoubtedly did in his heels and help the Belarus dictator  hold power.

There are many differences though, between Belarus and Ukraine that make it harder on the Belarus people.

[mischief]

Let's not sit back in the free world and make apologies and rationalizations for communist oppressors. It may be fashionable in some circles, but it doesn't cut the mustard for those of us who have been there.

Not that you have to go there to know that the people want to be free. And not that going there makes one a genius either.

Everything should and will change gradually… The mindset of people should be ready for changing ….It should be an evolution process …process of trying and learning from mistakes…

 Most of the western people don't understand that… you were born here with freedom of speech, religion, press… political liberty, you don't know another way!

In FSU people didn't have this opportunity and they don't have an idea how to live in freedom you have… they don't have experience how to interact socially under mutual acceptable guidelines…

Freedom can mean different things for different people and you need to set sensible limits for everything… In this country freedom comes through the Constitution, Bill of rights and laws that have evolved over the centuries and are still developing today.

Recall the history…the Great Revolution of 1918 …. People got their freedom but didn't know what to do with it… for some people the notion of freedom was robbing and destroying the places of nobles… in the meantime lots of cultural heritage were destroyed and lots of educated people were killed.

The society wasn't mature enough to survive without monarchy and we came back to dictatorship with Stalin in charge…

In 1980 we got our freedom and power back, but we chose people like Lukashenko and Putin as our leaders…

[dfb]

Approximately 11 years ago, Lukashenko said during an international broadcasted interview that he admired Stalin and Hitler.  His PR people tried to smooth it over during the next few days by stating that he really did not mean that, rather he only admires their work… 

The following is a good representation of events since 1991:

http://www.nupi.no/cgi-win/Russland/personer.exe?913

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Lukashenko

 

Luka has had a long history of dislike for the media:

http://www.cpj.org/attacks02/europe02/belarus.html

http://lukashenkosolidarity.free.fr/state.htm

[tim 360]

Mischief,  The freedom you speak of will only come when enough people make their will known.  Freedom or a representative democracy usually has to be fought for as the powers that be--- has zero interest in surrendering any of their power.  Perhaps,  these rumblings of today will become a future earthquake and power can be shaken from Lukashenko and his cadres.  Be sure,  it will not be benevolently bestowed to the people.

Whether there was better law and order etc in communistic times is comparing apples to oranges.  While Mussolini and Hitler reigned the same could be said to be true.....and the streets were clean and the trains all ran on time.  Crime in the streets was very low.  The same could be said of when Hulgua Khan ruled present day Iraq in the late 1200's.  There was no protest or disorder.

 

[andrewfi]

The big point that seems to be missed by almost everyone, including the very hypocritical governments of the US and EU, is that Lukashenko is very popular and that he has no credible opposition.

There is neither need nor ability to change as long as the leadership and by extension policies enjoy massive popular support. In the leadership of nations the old saying 'cometh the time, cometh the man' always applies. Not until there is a popular movement that espouses differnt policies and people is there any point in even talking about anything else. If Mischief, or other expat Belarusians want something different, get on a plane, go home and foment change in your home country. if not, then stay shtum, you have nothing to add to the discussion!

BTW, Lysander sent me this link earlier today: http://www.antiwar.com/orig/mcadams.php?articleid=8763

It is the first cogent discussion, in the English language, that I have seen of the reality of the Belarusian election and related issues.

[tim 360]

That is the big point!  If the majority of people in Belarus want Lukashenko,  then he is their man.  If they don't the world would know by the actions the people take.  One cannot foist democracy upon a people who don't want it. 

[jb]

Tim,

All rational, semi-intelligent people want at least some say-so in their future, to deny this is to say all people are sheep and need a shepherd.  It may, at this point in history be, " the devil you know is more friendly than the devil you don't know", but I'd never assume people are willingly electing semi-slavery over autonomy as a free choice.  Big mistake.

If the people of Belarus are intent on joining the rest of the world on trade and human rights issues, they will eventually rid themselves of the slave master that rule them now.  Count on it.  It might even happen in our lifetime. 

And like some other revolutions we've seen, it might even get bloody, but it won't be a bad thing.

[andrewfi]

Lukashenko is not running a country full of slaves. The country is developing quite well. The country is a democracy, it suits its people and purpose.

There is no rocket science here.

If there were an opposition then people would have voted for them. A country that has an opposition that can muster only 5 or 6 hundred demonstrors and 6% of the vote has no mandate to lead. Any outsde influence that tried to meddle and cause the premature downfall of the popular incumbent and and the installation of an unmandated government would be guilty of removing the self-determination that some claim Belarusians need. They plenty and enough!

This is something that is becoming more f an issue around the world. Deposition of legitmate governments by other, more powerful ones, in the interest of the more powerful and under the guise of 'democracy'. It is wrong and a serious threat to the world.

[jb]

Andrew,

Since when is a dictatorship a democracy?  Unless I'm reading all the reports, even from the BBC, wrong,  Lukashenko is a dictator.  Not a duly, popularly, elected head of government.

Please correct my if I've got that wrong.

[Bruno]

Since when is a dictatorship a democracy?  Unless I'm reading all the reports, even from the BBC, wrong,  Lukashenko is a dictator.  Not a duly, popularly, elected head of government.

JB, Lukashenko is popular in Belarus like Adolf Hitler was popular in Germany between the two world war... He spend a lot of money for people ( spend more that the income ), control the media, make a lot of propaganda...

Why do you think that EU and USA have say that the election was unfair before people go to vote ? Simply because the other canditat have not receive the same TV time, have not the same opportunity to make a honest campaign... when opposition cannot raise the voice before election, have not the same right that Lukashenko, when they suffert repression... how can be the election be fair...

Lukashenko close the belarus from outside contact, he is the naster in his country, people have no alternative... the only good side is that Likashenko is old and will not live forever...

[jb]

I ask again,,, is he a dictator, or not?

[mischief]

The big point that seems to be missed by almost everyone, including the very hypocritical governments of the US and EU, is that Lukashenko is very popular and that he has no credible opposition.

There is neither need nor ability to change as long as the leadership and by extension policies enjoy massive popular support. In the leadership of nations the old saying 'cometh the time, cometh the man' always applies. Not until there is a popular movement that espouses differnt policies and people is there any point in even talking about anything else. If Mischief, or other expat Belarusians want something different, get on a plane, go home and foment change in your home country. if not, then stay shtum, you have nothing to add to the discussion!

BTW, Lysander sent me this link earlier today: http://www.antiwar.com/orig/mcadams.php?articleid=8763

It is the first cogent discussion, in the English language, that I have seen of the reality of the Belarusian election and related issues.

LOL … I would get on the plane immediately  if I thought it might help… But one day I'm planning to come back when I get enough knowledge and experience to make a difference (and when my son won't need his mommy as much)…

It seemed that there wasn't credible opposition simply because there was lack of the real communication with people since mass media is monopolized by the government… and none of them had any campaigning experience...

The distinguishing feature of Belarusian society is fidelity attachment to traditional social myths and stereotypes… and indifference to economic freedom… Belarusian people prefer social security against the interests of well-being and economic growth on the new quality basis… Therefore, the need in social stability and order contradicts with objective need in economic development of the country…. But the priorities are gradually shifting… that's why I mentioned before that it's an evolutional process… For that reason it's necessary to have an open and democratic way of public dialogue …
It's necessary to develop institutions which will support the functioning of the markets and privately owned enterprises.  In order to do that, political and economic competition must be present ….

The article in the link is not cogent discussion but opposite opinion which always good to hear… I can argue with lots of statements in the article but I'll mention one… Falsification of the votes took place … and it is credible information coming from the people I personally know… though you can't deny the fact that the majority of the population voted for Lukashenko because of the reasons I explained above…

Andrew, I don't know what makes you an expert in questions about Belarus but even for an expert it's always useful to hear different perspectives… therefore your statement that I have nothing to add to discussion is simply rude and narrow-minded…


 

[Bruno]

In states with established democratic institutions, dictators frequently emerge in times of war, or during an economic or social crisis. Most notably, Benito Mussolini in Italy and Adolf Hitler in Germany, gained power within the framework of democratic politics, and once in power gradually eroded constitutional restraints.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dictator

Belarus is a enough democratic but Lukashenko have change laws... the change have allow him to be elected President again... it is the first step to Dictatorship... so, i say YES