2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)

[fathertime]

According to ABC News, and reported here by good old CNN, the US knew there was a severe virus in November.  It was already being discussed in the starkest of terms.  How does this not put to rest that the US was unguarded against a misinformation campaign in China? 


ABC News: US intelligence warned of China's spreading contagion in November

US intelligence officials were warning as far back as late November that the novel coronavirus was spreading through China's Wuhan region and posing a threat to its people and daily life, according to ABC News.

The US military's National Center for Medical Intelligence (NCMI) compiled a November intelligence report in which "analysts concluded it could be a cataclysmic event," one of the sources of the NCMI's report told ABC News.
Chaos rocks Trump White House on virus' most tragic day
Chaos rocks Trump White House on virus' most tragic day
The source told ABC News that the intelligence report was then briefed "multiple times" .....

http://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/politics/us-intelligence-report-china-coronavirus/index.html   
Fathertime! 

[BC]

I don't understand this idea of trying to test everyone.

All a test indicates (ignoring false negatives and false positives) is the situation at that point in time.

The next day, a person who tested negatively could then acquire the virus.

This also applies to all those who have already been tested.

That is true ML, but the most interesting test at the moment is antibody testing to find folks that have had the bug but did not have symptoms or recovered with mild cases.

The test is being tested here in several regions to find out how accurate they are.  A major problem at the moment is getting enough of the reagents needed as worldwide demand is high.

If I am positive I'll stay home under quarantine and need to be retested after the illness passes - then I'll likely be immune and can go to work not having to worry about infecting others or myself.  If I test and have antibodies I should also be able to move around freely without infecting others or myself.  If I test negative then I'd better stay home and take the same precautions I do now in lockdown until a vaccine is available.

Those that have antibodies can help others that are sick by giving blood plasma, *maybe* even those that are healthy (big question mark here).

[Gator]

IIRC I felt it would not be feasible as it was already too late for such.  Think was the first post with the radar picture of aeroplanes flying around. 

This should interest you.  ABC News analyzed 20 million international flight records for the critical 4-month period of December - March.

Flights from China:  "3,200 flights flew from China to the U.S., including more than 1,000 flights ....to Los Angeles and nearly 500 each landed in San Francisco and New York  ....those flights translated to more than 761,000 Chinese nationals entering the U.S.... Among the flights were 50 direct from Wuhan.... Twenty-seven of those flights went to San Francisco and 23 to New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport. The last flights from Wuhan came in early February...." because of the Trump travel ban.

Flights from Italy and Spain:  "More than 1,400 direct flights from Italy landed in U.S. cities from December to March, including more than 500 in February and March....Another 2,255 flights from Spain landed in U.S. cities....Nearly 100 of the Italy-to-Miami flights happened over six weeks in February and early March before the U.S. imposed restrictions. .....Also in March, more than 400 flights left Spain for 12 American cities. Close to half of those flights landed at two New York City region airports: JFK and Newark Liberty. ...The flights directly from China, Italy and Spain reached at least 15 states.

Also, "Of the Customs and Border Protection personnel that tested positive, 52, were from New York ports of entry, 20 were from Miami and Fort Lauderdale airports and facilities, 10 from Los Angeles work sites and 10 from New Jersey."

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/disaster-motion-flights-coronavirus-ravaged-countries-landed-us/story?id=70025470
 

[GQBlues]

I don't understand this idea of trying to test everyone.

All a test indicates (ignoring false negatives and false positives) is the situation at that point in time.

The next day, a person who tested negatively could then acquire the virus.

This also applies to all those who have already been tested.

Very valid point.

But like BC had been saying, national testing at least for the next 18-24 months or until a vaccine is found, IMO, would give society at large a 'process of self-elimination' (or better yet, self-isolation, extraction, etc…)

There should be as much effort to make test kits on a much higher scale of availability and affordability, like per se - pregnancy test kits, breathalyzer, etc..  to the point anyone can periodically 'test' themselves - everyday if need be.

A daily personal testing would immensely help 'curb' infection to society at large. You test negative, go about your daily routine. You test positive, stay home and quarantine.

*([Even better, if these test kits are somehow connected to the internet that would automatically send information at large to mission district central headquarters for monitoring....so if the infected attempts to leave and go outside, a drone can immediately be dispatched and fire a disintegrating ray upon the person and eliminate the danger to society.)*

Anyway, the point is, people have a natural herding mentality. It's just not in our nature to be 'caged'. Sooner than later the masses will defy any stay-at-home mandate. So any slight show of the curve falling down our govt. will lift the lockdown ordinance and we will all be exposed to the same infection rate we were in initially.

Lather, rinse, repeat...

[Gator]

I don't know if any exit strategy will be acceptable in the WH as all will take time and much effort to do it right.  'Cut 'em loose' is dangerous IMHO as evidenced by new flareups in other countries.

I believe it will be a decision made  jointly with each of the 50 Governors and implemented in stages starting first with least infected  states.  And within each state, it may be sequenced.  For example, first phase could be to open schools, construction projects and public parks.   Just an example; I am not smart enough to know what is best.   

The decision will not be "perfect," as I anticipate it will be implemented before the full capacity of needed testing is developed.  It will be the most important decision in his four years as President. 

[GQBlues]

This should interest you.  ABC News analyzed 20 million international flight records for the critical 4-month period of December - March.

Flights from China:  "3,200 flights flew from China to the U.S., including more than 1,000 flights ....to Los Angeles and nearly 500 each landed in San Francisco and New York  ....those flights translated to more than 761,000 Chinese nationals entering the U.S.... Among the flights were 50 direct from Wuhan.... Twenty-seven of those flights went to San Francisco and 23 to New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport. The last flights from Wuhan came in early February...." because of the Trump travel ban.

Flights from Italy and Spain:  "More than 1,400 direct flights from Italy landed in U.S. cities from December to March, including more than 500 in February and March....Another 2,255 flights from Spain landed in U.S. cities....Nearly 100 of the Italy-to-Miami flights happened over six weeks in February and early March before the U.S. imposed restrictions. .....Also in March, more than 400 flights left Spain for 12 American cities. Close to half of those flights landed at two New York City region airports: JFK and Newark Liberty. ...The flights directly from China, Italy and Spain reached at least 15 states.

Also, "Of the Customs and Border Protection personnel that tested positive, 52, were from New York ports of entry, 20 were from Miami and Fort Lauderdale airports and facilities, 10 from Los Angeles work sites and 10 from New Jersey."

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/disaster-motion-flights-coronavirus-ravaged-countries-landed-us/story?id=70025470

This is mind numbing if one considers the R-naught rate of this virus is 2-2.5.

[calmissile]

Have been thinking about GQ's "What Next" question.
It seems to me that one of the most important priorities is to reopen our industry and businesses.  So what are the options to do this with minimal impact on the virus spreading and reappearing?

The lockdowns, shelter in place, and social distancing appears to have worked to a large extent but isn't a practical solution to getting our country back to work.  So what tools do we have that are available now or in the near future that can be used to allow the work force to resume getting back to work?

Since there is no vaccine to prevent the population from contracting the virus, we must rely on other methods to prevent the transmission of the virus.  The experts have indicated that the transmission mechanism best understood is from physical contact and via inhaling the vapors from infected individuals (coughing, etc).

It would seem to me that businesses could implement measures that would greatly minimize the transmission of the virus in the workplace.
1.  Require all employees to  wear masks to minimize the risk of spreading the virus from someone infected to other workers.
2.  Install the disinfectant hand wash dispensers in all bathrooms lunchrooms, hallways, etc.   Our company had already done this prior to the virus outbreak.  Just good planning by someone in our company I guess.
3.  For businesses that deal with the public, install the disinfectant wipe dispensers such as our grocery stores have already done.
4.  Any employee that shows signs of virus symptoms should be sent home and not return until tested.   Our company already took similar actions by sending an employee home whos wife had just returned from Spain.

In addition, until a vaccine is available I think the public wearing masks in public would probably also minimize the spread of the virus.  I would not have to last forever, just until the epidemic is under control and a vaccine is readily available.

What are your thoughts or other solutions?

[GQBlues]

Have been thinking about GQ's "What Next" question.
It seems to me that one of the most important priorities is to reopen our industry and businesses.  So what are the options to do this with minimal impact on the virus spreading and reappearing?

The lockdowns, shelter in place, and social distancing appears to have worked to a large extent but isn't a practical solution to getting our country back to work.  So what tools do we have that are available now or in the near future that can be used to allow the work force to resume getting back to work?

Since there is no vaccine to prevent the population from contracting the virus, we must rely on other methods to prevent the transmission of the virus.  The experts have indicated that the transmission mechanism best understood is from physical contact and via inhaling the vapors from infected individuals (coughing, etc)…

No easy answer to this, Cal. Certainly not a fool-proof solution until a vaccine comes around. As I posted above, short of having a portable (personal) test kit where a person can test themselves everyday, it's Russian roulette going back outside and attempting to go back to 'normal'.

Let me address some of your bulleted items...

It would seem to me that businesses could implement measures that would greatly minimize the transmission of the virus in the workplace.
1.  Require all employees to  wear masks to minimize the risk of spreading the virus from someone infected to other workers.

As a result of the revelation in our company that a co-worker came down with symptoms of the virus and stayed home, they issued the following notice this morning..

" Good Morning Team,
Beginning Friday, April 10, 2020, all office personnel will be required to wear a face cover when socializing during business hours.  This includes any office meetings or walking around the office. 

All personnel working outside are required to wear a face cover at all times beginning today...."

2.  Install the disinfectant hand wash dispensers in all bathrooms lunchrooms, hallways, etc.   Our company had already done this prior to the virus outbreak.  Just good planning by someone in our company I guess.

We had a crew for 3 weeks now that were sanitizing our work place on a daily basis...door knobs, tools, computers, desks, tables, etc...it still didn't stop a co-worker from being symptomatic. All you really got is a false sense of security.

3.  For businesses that deal with the public, install the disinfectant wipe dispensers such as our grocery stores have already done.

4.  Any employee that shows signs of virus symptoms should be sent home and not return until tested.   Our company already took similar actions by sending an employee home whos wife had just returned from Spain.

Thin line to ensuring the safety of the public by provisions of items or programs of prevention, whether public or private entity, from it becoming an invitation of open liability.

Companies in our industry had already started sending 'CYA' notices to all sub-tiers with varying response programs that does nothing more than cover their butts for any potential lawsuits.

For example, from now on, before entering and starting any work in our projects, every single personnel is supposed to go through interviews and answer a set of stabled questions (e.g. Have you exposed yourself with someone showing symptoms within the last 24 hours? etc...), then get temp scanned, etc...if passed, person signs in and goes to work. If not, he's turned around and instructed to go home and quarantine.

Great! What does the person do after? He can't get tested unless he begins to show symptoms. He quarantines and never got sick enough to be tested - how then does he go back to work? Who's going to give him a certificate he's no longer infected? There are a whole lot of us who are asymptomatic that can easily 'pass' these silly surficial tests and questioning but it doesn't screen or mitigate the infection.

In addition, until a vaccine is available I think the public wearing masks in public would probably also minimize the spread of the virus.  I would not have to last forever, just until the epidemic is under control and a vaccine is readily available.

What are your thoughts or other solutions?

There is no easy answer, and there definitely is no solution short of a vaccine. This is our reality today. Look at the daily count case accounting here and worldwide. A million and a half, and these are people who had symptoms, representing roughly 10% of the people who actually got tested that turned out 'positive'. This virus' R-naught is 2-2.5. How many amongst us is asymptomatic that were never tested? How long will it be before THEY begin the vicious infection spree again?

BC can chime in to validate if this report from Italy is true or not. Apparently earlier this week, or last week, a report that came out of Lombardy that said 60 people showed up to donate blood at a blood bank. They found out 40 of them tested positive. 40 out of 60 of people! And these folks were on a strict lockdown mode for weeks! Can you imagine that? People who stayed at home were infected and would've likely gone to work and started associating with everyone again.

It's going to be a wild, wild west out there right now. Health/economy will be nothing more than having to choose between the lesser evil. Either by each of us, or forced by our respective governments.

[BillyB]

ABC News: US intelligence warned of China's spreading contagion in November

US intelligence officials were warning as far back as late November that the novel coronavirus was spreading through China's Wuhan region and posing a threat to its people and daily life, according to ABC News.

The US military's National Center for Medical Intelligence (NCMI) compiled a November intelligence report in which "analysts concluded it could be a cataclysmic event," one of the sources of the NCMI's report told ABC News.

America spies on China and probably intercepted some phone calls pertaining to China's effort to fight an epidemic in Wuhan. As I mentioned before, my uncle was in a tour group touring China in November. They were supposed to stop in Wuhan in the middle of November but their train was stopped by the Chinese military and told to go around the city.

The virus probably came about earlier than China said it did. It's apparent China has deceived the world from the beginning.

How does this not put to rest that the US was unguarded against a misinformation campaign in China? 

Trump gets intel briefings everyday pertaining to all the bad things and threats around the world. He can't act on every one of them and he can't save everybody's life. Trump and past presidents have not acted on most of what they are told.

We don't know if Trump acted in November or not to the intel finding. Trump's administration isn't going to go to war over this and if you call China they would probably deny it. At the most, Trump's administration would call WHO and ask them to look into it and when WHO had evidence a coronavirus existed, they put out info it wasn't human to human transferable and there was nothing to worry about all the way up to Jan 20. Trump acted shortly after that to the protests of the Democrats who some also gets the same intel briefings as Trump.

[Gator]

GQ,

You want the world to stay sequestered?

Rather than name all the beneficial developments that will eventually happen ( e. g., massive testing), let me say we can not wait for an "all clear" announcement.  More and more of the working population must venture out into the unknown and work, with the best protective measures available on a mass scale.   Otherwise we could be set back for years, maybe even experiencing  the apocalyptic life envisioned in Krimster's perplexing scribbling.   

I am not voicing a herd immunity approach.  Rather it is a recognition that some will become infected until we have a complete and impeccable set of protective tools.  Although some of the infected will have serious reactions, our medical treatment protocols are improving for curing the infected.   

The question of course is how many would become infected and how severe the infection.  But we can't stay at home until the money runs out.     

[GQBlues]

No Gator, of course not.

I do understand the importance of turning our national economic engine back running again, sooner than later. It's like you said, we need to go head-on to this despite knowing what the implications are. Wifey just sent me an article that one of their main competitor - BDO - sent a memo to its employees about their company-wide pay cuts to stave off current condition. We cannot afford a prolonged shutdown like this.

These are unprecedented times. Very concerning. Damned if you do, double damned if you don't.

As I said above, no easy answer. No perfect solution. For now...

[calmissile]

No sooner than GQ had posted a notice from their company I received an email at home with basically the same message..

"Good Afternoon Everyone,

In accordance with San Bernardino County, as xxxxxxxxxxxxx, Inc resides in this county – all employees while on site must wear a protective cloth that covers your nose and mouth that is secured to ears or back of head. You must wear this protective covering while on the property. This is mandatory as we want to support the efforts and safety measures that our county has implemented to maintain a safe work environment for everyone on site.

Suggested forms of cloth coverings include:
·   Bandanas
·   Scarves
·   Neck gaiters
·   Reusable cloth masks

Please note: Surgical masks and the N95 masks must be preserved for healthcare workers and emergency responders.


xxxxxxxxxx   placed an order for reusable/washable cloth masks that will be available tomorrow morning. If you do not have any of the suggested cloth covering options available please see your immediate supervisor so they can facilitate getting you a cloth mask.

Please communicate this information to your team members that do not have email"

As we are considered a critical industry, most of our workers are still having to report to our plant.  It appears to me that maybe businesses are already preparing to mitigate the risks of workers when they come back to work.

Thanks GQ for the response.  Hopefully a plan to restore our employment will be coming soon.

[BC]

Wow.. woke up this morning to find constructive discourse! How refreshing!

Maybe the shellshock of this experience will give us pause with recriminations so we all can think about the basics of the mess we put ourselves into.

Using Occam's Razor to slice the pie:

First, we will see a higher frequency of pandemics as the world population and density grows. Natural and unnatural forces are further restricting the space in which we live, and increasing sources and breeding grounds for new viral outbreaks.

Second, our ability to travel quickly, easily and cheaply makes for a fantastic viral distribution network. Just a few decades or so ago we would likely not have experienced such a fast worldwide spread of a virus that does not respect borders.

Third, we were not adequately prepared for a pandemic event whether 'we' be a city, county, state, country or world.

Fourth, we are learning the hard way that Science and Politics do not mix well with resulting Economic harm.

Fifth, we are not able to leverage the full potential of our capabilities fighting and recovering from a pandemic.

Sixth, we cannot deal with or overcome a pandemic event alone.  It must be a worldwide effort.

What did I miss?

As bad as this one is, we have been very, very lucky.  The inevitable 'next one' can easily be exponentially more dangerous and infective. The difference is only a molecule here or there.  The only thing worse than the virus itself is our complacency.

Knowing all this, do you think we (humanity) have the drive and wherewithal to think and do things that are far beyond ourselves and our borders to survive the 'next time?

If so, will our fears, recriminations and finger-pointing allow us to progress, or will we first have to overcome these defects of our character to have a decent chance of resolving the challenge in front of us?

Just thoughts to ponder...

[jone]

Looks like we need to get off planet for the protection of the human race, LOL.

[fathertime]

2.  Install the disinfectant hand wash dispensers in all bathrooms lunchrooms, hallways, etc.   Our company had already done this prior to the virus outbreak.  Just good planning by someone in our company I guess.
 

It seems to me that all the extra hand washing eventually will lead to only the super resistant and strongest virus remaining and growing.   

Fathertime!

[fathertime]

America spies on China and probably intercepted some phone calls pertaining to China's effort to fight an epidemic in Wuhan. As I mentioned before, my uncle was in a tour group touring China in November. They were supposed to stop in Wuhan in the middle of November but their train was stopped by the Chinese military and told to go around the city.

The virus probably came about earlier than China said it did. It's apparent China has deceived the world from the beginning.

Trump gets intel briefings everyday pertaining to all the bad things and threats around the world. He can't act on every one of them and he can't save everybody's life. Trump and past presidents have not acted on most of what they are told.

We don't know if Trump acted in November or not to the intel finding. Trump's administration isn't going to go to war over this and if you call China they would probably deny it. At the most, Trump's administration would call WHO and ask them to look into it and when WHO had evidence a coronavirus existed, they put out info it wasn't human to human transferable and there was nothing to worry about all the way up to Jan 20. Trump acted shortly after that to the protests of the Democrats who some also gets the same intel briefings as Trump.

Bottom line is the info was in Trump's hands in late November.  The virus spread here well after that.  Personally I don't think much short of a complete lock down would have prevented it. I continue to believe that Trump has decided to prioritize business over saving everybody.  That may just be the lessor of the two evils from his view.

Fathertime! 

Fathertime!   

[BillyB]

we all can think about the basics of the mess we put ourselves into.

WE? You mean China? Whether or not it came from a laboratory or eating strange animals without thoroughly cooking them, it's China that got us in this mess. Nothing what you say below is a factor.

Using Occam's Razor to slice the pie:

First, we will see a higher frequency of pandemics as the world population and density grows. Natural and unnatural forces are further restricting the space in which we live, and increasing sources and breeding grounds for new viral outbreaks.

Second, our ability to travel quickly, easily and cheaply makes for a fantastic viral distribution network. Just a few decades or so ago we would likely not have experienced such a fast worldwide spread of a virus that does not respect borders.

Third, we were not adequately prepared for a pandemic event whether 'we' be a city, county, state, country or world.

Fourth, we are learning the hard way that Science and Politics do not mix well with resulting Economic harm.

Fifth, we are not able to leverage the full potential of our capabilities fighting and recovering from a pandemic.

Sixth, we cannot deal with or overcome a pandemic event alone.  It must be a worldwide effort.

What did I miss?

You missed Climate Change. Yes, I read that from the media climate saying change is helping viruses flourish. Funny thing is most experts agree hot temperatures is something viruses don't like. I hope Nancy Pelosi puts in 500 billion into the next relief bill to combating climate change. Not.

[BC]

WE? You mean China? Whether or not it came from a laboratory or eating strange animals without thoroughly cooking them, it's China that got us in this mess. Nothing what you say below is a factor.

The China blame thread is here http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?topic=24254.0

You missed Climate Change. Yes, I read that from the media climate saying change is helping viruses flourish. Funny thing is most experts agree hot temperatures is something viruses don't like. I hope Nancy Pelosi puts in 500 billion into the next relief bill to combating climate change. Not.

That is included in the first point 'Natural and unnatural forces'.  Melting permafrost, for example, is filled with all kinds of bacteria and virus from days long past that we have not yet encountered.

[GQBlues]

...
What did I miss?

The nature of humankind. We've witness glimpses of moments in time what became of our nature when it came down the final act. That sinister nature in us will be the worst thing that will be our own undoing.

We all would like to celebrate moments of idealism, but these few feel-good moments are fleeting and easily dispensed. When all is said and done, self-preservation kicks in, and trust me - it'll prevail. Last man standing.

[BC]

We all would like to celebrate moments of idealism, but these few feel-good moments are fleeting and easily dispensed. When all is said and done, self-preservation kicks in, and trust me - it'll prevail. Last man standing.

If that is the case, we have learned little, maybe nothing worthwhile.

[2tallbill]

It seems to me that all the extra hand washing eventually will lead to only the super resistant and strongest virus remaining and growing.   

Fathertime!

Your argument lacks logic. Sanitary practices are beneficial not detrimental. 

Should surgeons not wash their hands before surgery?

[2tallbill]

You missed Climate Change. Yes, I read that from the media climate saying change is helping viruses flourish. Funny thing is most experts agree hot temperatures is something viruses don't like. I hope Nancy Pelosi puts in 500 billion into the next relief bill to combating climate change. Not.

You bring up an excellent point.

The man made global warming hysteria is based on faulty and
incomplete computer models/modeling. The wild and wide viral
death speculation are based on faulty and incomplete computer
models/modeling.

[ML]

From another thread:

"Did Boris actually say he was thinking about "herd immunity". I know a few of your medical experts thought about it. Could it be your anti Boris media is putting words into his mouth?"

- - - - - - - - - - - - -

Saw interesting segment on PBS last night regarding this.

It compared Corona situation in two similarly homogeneous countries Denmark and Sweden.

Apparently Sweden took exactly the tack that Boris was accused of above.
They had no lockdown, and even used the words survival and let our people contract Corona, develop antibodies, and create a herd resistance for the future.

Denmark, on the other hand took the opposite approach and had substantial lockdown.

Now the results are showing that Sweden's death rate from Corona is nearly twice that of Denmark's.

So substantial questioning and discussion by Sweden's government.

The King of Sweden went on TV this week criticizing the government stance on lockdown, and urged the Swedish people to not leave their homes to go to country cottages as is the tradition this time of year.

[GQBlues]

If that is the case, we have learned little, maybe nothing worthwhile.

I'm afraid so. Certainly not meaning to be gloom and doom, but there were moments in this current crisis that really paints the deeply rooted nature in all of us. It's in all our DNA.

At the slightest sight of a crisis, people begin to act out behaviors that shocks all of us first, but begin to submit to the behavior. Must we really need to be reminded and told not to hoard stupid things like toilet papers? Food items? Protective clothing?

Alas, this behavior isn't just in the bottom sectors of all our societies. Look at all our politicians/leaders...countries retaining or depriving PPEs to countries under current need to make sure they have the items when the crisis hits them.

Look at those cruise ships wandering about our open oceans because no country would allow them to dock despite its desperate plea for assistance.

Help comes to the highest bidder - whether monetarily or political influences. Country or individual.

[BC]

I understand and totally agree with your points GQ.

But I remain hopeful that this globe-spanning event can turn a wee bit of 'me' into a tiny spark of 'we'.