If China is Really Responsible......

[jone]

We should have a thread on this forum that details the number of countries that are downplaying the infection numbers and discuss the reasons for their duplicity. 

Was it Stalin who said:  "If one dies its a tragedy.   If a million die its a statistic."

The US may be many things, some of them not pretty.   But I get the sense that we are trying to get our numbers right for deaths and infected. 

Then you look at various countries and it is very apparent that the country is intentionally downplaying the epidemic for reasons known only to them.

So there is China, sitting smug, claiming that the number of cases from ground zero were an order of number smaller than other countries with a lesser population density and or population.   And the countries are struggling with the number of deaths that its population has to endure.   

So, yeah, it rankles.

Talked to a friend in Yaketerinburg yesterday.   She says that everyone in her city are wearing masks and, still, there are infections.   She claims that there are more infections in her city than is being reported in all of Russia.  Go figure.

I don't know what advantage lying about the infection numbers buys a country .... with the possible exception of China.   China knows that it misled the world.   What seems never to sink in to these Central Committee Members is that the Western World gets pretty pissed off when it has been lied to and deaths result from those lies.

[BC]

jone,

In the end, the data will allow statisticians to apply correlations with events and identify anomalies. Questions will surely arise, be investigated and conclusions drawn.  Posted in another thread, but an example the attached graphic showing (until now) similarities and differences between Italy and the US.

the steeper initial slope in the US data could well be due to initial problems with testing, a portion might be missing.  On the Italian graph, I can almost imagine the peaks and lulls or waves if you will, 1 2 3 being caused by stepped up restrictions and those that fled to faraway homes right before the main national lockdown date

I do find it a bit concerning that no notable waves have appeared yet in US data so we really don't know yet which way we're trending. The beginning of one may be starting but might just be a weekend lul. Very similar to stock chart analysis with events delayed.  Let's hope that somehow we arrived at 3.

We'll certainly know more in the future, but for now, what I can say with a decent amount of certainty is that this bug is very persistent and tenacious.

Stay home, stay safe.
 

[BillyB]

All I 'know' is that we don't 'know', and that certainly no one here at RWD 'knows'. As of today, the Martian theory is just as valid as any other.  Get it now?

There are a lot of people in the world that has your attitude and as a result, there may not be enough unified worldwide support to investigate China because you're okay with not knowing the truth. Not once have you agreed there should be an investigation and punishment if China is guilty. Are you happy with the investment and tourism China brings to Italy and don't want to see it go away?

If a person kills a cop, there will be an army of cops searching for the cop killer because they can't allow a person like that to run loose. There should be an army of people looking for virus infected animals so we don't have a repeat. If China allowed an army of scientists and investigators in their country to help look for the source of the virus, there wouldn't be so much suspicion and backlash against them. If they were truly innocent it would benefit them to allow other nations experts in their country to investigate. The only reason I can see for them not wanting the world to help them is they don't want the world to learn the truth.

Although nations have differences, we're all in this together. Whether humanity is threatened by a meteor or virus, we need accurate data and cooperation in defeating whatever threatens humanity. At every step of the way China lied jeopardizing our lives and economies and only told the truth when it wasn't possible to lie anymore.

[msmob]

Talked to a friend in Yaketerinburg yesterday.   She says that everyone in her city are wearing masks and, still, there are infections.   

Hmm.. today in Yekaterinburg




Another link, in case one might think this is exceptional ..

http://www.uralweb.ru/news/medicine/511420-smi-v-sverdlovskoy-oblasti-podtverdilis-eshche-sem-sluchaev-koronavirusa.html


In Krasnodarsky Krai - which has one of the most stringent 'lockdowns' ..about 40 percent are wearing surgical masks 

Clue: Many Russians don't give a ..

[BC]

There are a lot of people in the world that has your attitude and as a result, there may not be enough unified worldwide support to investigate China because you're okay with not knowing the truth. Not once have you agreed there should be an investigation and punishment if China is guilty. Are you happy with the investment and tourism China brings to Italy and don't want to see it go away?

That sounds like a strawman fallacy http://thebestschools.org/magazine/15-logical-fallacies-know/#strawman

You don't know how many in the world have my attitude because you don't know what my attitude is in the first place.  Did I ever say I'm ok with not knowing the truth? Did I once disagree there should not be an investigation and punishment if China is guilty?  Did I say I was scared that Italy would lose money from Chinese tourists?

You see.. you spout lots of things I never said without knowing one iota about what I think or not.  It's often called 'putting words into someone's mouth'.  You come to conclusions without ever asking a question.

You'd make a pretty crappy lawyer trying to convince a jury like you do here BillyB. (intentional ad hominem) . http://thebestschools.org/magazine/15-logical-fallacies-know/#adhominem

[msmob]

There are a lot of people in the world that has your attitude and as a result, there may not be enough unified worldwide support to investigate China because you're okay with not knowing the truth. Not once have you agreed there should be an investigation and punishment if China is guilty. Are you happy with the investment and tourism China brings to Italy and don't want to see it go away?

If a person kills a cop, there will be an army of cops searching for the cop killer because they can't allow a person like that to run loose. There should be an army of people looking for virus infected animals so we don't have a repeat. If China allowed an army of scientists and investigators in their country to help look for the source of the virus, there wouldn't be so much suspicion and backlash against them. If they were truly innocent it would benefit them to allow other nations experts in their country to investigate. The only reason I can see for them not wanting the world to help them is they don't want the world to learn the truth.

Although nations have differences, we're all in this together. Whether humanity is threatened by a meteor or virus, we need accurate data and cooperation in defeating whatever threatens humanity. At every step of the way China lied jeopardizing our lives and economies and only told the truth when it wasn't possible to lie anymore.

Again.. not defending the Chinese govt in any way.. but if they could 'do' Tiananmen Square with impunity..  WHO is going to 'investigate and prosecute' .. ?

[BillyB]

  Did I ever say I'm ok with not knowing the truth?

You've spent a lot of time debating anybody that has anything to say other than what China told the world and haven't spent any time questioning China but if you want us to believe you're on our side, I don't believe you.

Again.. not defending the Chinese govt in any way.. but if they could 'do' Tiananmen Square with impunity..  WHO is going to 'investigate and prosecute' .. ?

WHO is supposed to protect the world from what just happened and they blew it. The expert medical scientists over there were naïve and believed everything China said, protected China, ignored Taiwan's warnings, and gave bad advice by telling nations they shouldn't close their borders with China. Why are we paying them big bucks for a poor performance? WHO should be investigated and I'm sure Trump will reduce the funding they get. Other nations like China that are happy with WHO's performance can increase funding to WHO.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-hints-at-cutting-who-funding-over-coronavirus-handling-says-they-really-blew-it/ar-BB12h7aJ?ocid=spartanntp

[BC]

You've spent a lot of time debating anybody that has anything to say other than what China told the world and haven't spent any time questioning China but if you want us to believe you're on our side, I don't believe you.

I can see why you may think that.  It's called 'shooting the messenger' (ad hominem) which is the basis of the term 'fake news'. Maybe try to address the subject instead along with the facts presented.  Maybe digging a bit deeper into the subject at hand would help.  Evaluate all sources instead of picking the first source that fits your hypothesis.

[Boethius]

You are forgetting again and focusing on what the various governments are telling regarding the numbers.

Regardless of what you think of USA people and USA government . . . you are surely aware that in our Free Press system . . . everything will come out.

This is not true in many (most) of the other countries of the world and in particular China, Russia, N Korea and authoritarian regimes in particular.

With this in mind . . . the USA numbers are likely to look very bad compared to many other countries.

But you can't say that about Germany, Taiwan, or South Korea, all of which also have had low rates of infection. 

I posted a piece by someone in China.  That was dismissed as propaganda, but the account conforms, almost entirely, with that of a relative living in central China, over 800 km from Wuhan.  In short, China took draconian measures to contain spread of the virus.  They also have a culture of using masks to prevent the spread of viruses.

I think Belvis' main point was about punishing China.

This post was composed without the aid of google.

[BillyB]

Maybe try to address the subject instead along with the facts presented.  Maybe digging a bit deeper into the subject at hand would help.  Evaluate all sources instead of picking the first source that fits your hypothesis.

People been addressing the subject that China has presented no facts after they dug deep for info. They evaluated all sources and concluded China is not a reputable source to obtain facts since they present no evidence of their clams. When they post their findings, you shoot the messenger. China would pay you big bucks to be their Western spokesperson. You pretend facts are important and you lack the ability or will to say China did wrong.

[jone]

Any information received by Western sources, at this time, is purely anecdotal.   Intelligence collectors are holding their cards pretty close to their vests.   This thread was started on the premise that 'if the Chinese' were the accidental originators of the virus.... and IF the Chinese covered up their numbers, intentionally ..... and if there is an active disinformation campaign to attempt to hide China from the world's retaliation.   

These are all big ifs.   I have my opinions.   I was exploring the common person's reaction if these things proved to be true.

With how many people have lost their jobs, lost their savings, lost their futures, I can imagine that the amount of push back from the people here in the US would be tremendous.

[Boethius]

I wouldn't want any form of retaliation unless it were proven the virus was purposely unleashed on the world.  Frankly, I think that is farfetched.


This post was composed without the aid of google.

[jone]

My observation is not what I want personally, but what I believe will happen if some Chinese actions caused the spread of the virus and then Chinese actions to hide their activities through disinformation and misdirection.

Frankly, to the members of the Central Committee in China - take warning - your every move is being monitored.  Too many pieces of evidence are available for every interested party - and the parties are very interested.

[jone]

And this is what I was talking about:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-lets-zoom-xi-he-has-questions-to-answer/

[BC]

People been addressing the subject that China has presented no facts after they dug deep for info. They evaluated all sources and concluded China is not a reputable source to obtain facts since they present no evidence of their clams. When they post their findings, you shoot the messenger. China would pay you big bucks to be their Western spokesperson. You pretend facts are important and you lack the ability or will to say China did wrong.

(argumentum ad verecundiam) Here you appeal to people as some authority.  I can agree people can form opinions on what they see and even what they don't see, but just because 'people' see it one way does not make 'people' authoritative.  You can teach a child from birth that the colour blue is red.  Later in life, one child says 'that car is blue' and the other says 'no the car is red'.  They are both right, they will both point to the same colour on a rainbow pattern.  Here the rainbow pattern is what represents truth best.

Here you present nothing that represents the truth accurately to compare our views, no reference point.  I assume you have not read my other posts regarding anomalies that statisticians may discover when this is all over and done with.  That may provide a decent reference point.  Until then my friend, you may be barking up the right or wrong tree.  I'm just going to be patient and not bark my throat raw needlessly.  I don't pretend facts are important, I know they are.  Whether China did wrong or not will be determined by neither you nor I.  Unlike you, I will keep an open mind to all possibilities and won't rely on

ad hominem

fallacies in futile, last-resort attempts to prove my point.

[BC]

And this is what I was talking about:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-lets-zoom-xi-he-has-questions-to-answer/

Is an interesting view jone.

What struck me while I skimmed:

We now know there were 104 cases of the new disease, including 15 deaths, between December 12 and the end of that month. Why was the official Chinese line on December 31 that there was “no clear evidence” of human-to-human transmission? And why did that official line not change until January 20?

Did the author take into account the typical incubation time of the virus?  Even in cases of salmonella, it can take a bit of time until cases are collected and evaluated to locate the source.

I read some reports that described local Wuhan officials sitting on the facts a bit. After all, 104 deaths among 11 million or so might not be that awful unusual. Probably quite an imposing thing to have to report to Beijing that you FUBAR'd it.  http://www.china-mike.com/chinese-culture/cult-of-face/

To be clear I'm not saying this was the case, but think it's worth throwing it into the basket called 'the realm of possibilities'.

[BillyB]

I assume you have not read my other posts regarding anomalies that statisticians may discover when this is all over and done with. 

Since the beginning when China was the only nation that put out data, I knew it was BS. You're just now noticing something isn't right? We can look at the data right now and conclude the most prosperous nations, with high level education among the population, and have the best health care systems have the highest rate of infections and death which translates to those nations don't know how to handle an epidemic. You trust data? You're never going to get the truth.

  Whether China did wrong or not will be determined by neither you nor I.

They did wrong. I determined it. Some people like yourself  won't want to pursue the truth because you may not like the answer. You're not willing to make China pay which can help motivate them to correct their behavior but others will.

I wouldn't want any form of retaliation unless it were proven the virus was purposely unleashed on the world.  Frankly, I think that is farfetched.

I don't think they let the virus loose on purpose but they were deceptive and negligent in every step of the way handling the virus which cost more lives and ruin economies than it should have. When China has a virus that can be transferred human to human and tells WHO and other nations is safe to travel to their country because the virus can't travel from human to human, they should be charged for the deaths of many people from all over the world.

[GQBlues]

I *think* Egypt did it.  They should pay.


Prove me wrong anyone.

[jone]

It was an opinion piece, BC.

Historically there is some license on opinion pieces.   I don't know what sources were used to create this piece.  My interest is that it represents a trend of thought that I believe will build and infect, just like the virus, until people may become frantic to obtain the truth.

We are in an unfortunate place right now.   Even if it were proven that the Chinese did everything by the WHO book, their system of government does not allow the transparency to provide confidence for the rest of the world.   My take, currently, is that we are in for a very big push back.   Something that could be as dangerous as the virus, itself.

[BC]

Since the beginning when China was the only nation that put out data, I knew it was BS. You're just now noticing something isn't right? We can look at the data right now and conclude the most prosperous nations, with high level education among the population, and have the best health care systems have the highest rate of infections and death which translates to those nations don't know how to handle an epidemic. You trust data? You're never going to get the truth.

Do we know if their published infection rate with a draconian lockdown which IIRC was much stricter, harsher and faster, can be correlated with lockdowns of other highly developed nations?  Will be interesting to find out one of these days.  We don't even know yet what the US rate will be.

They did wrong. I determined it. Some people like yourself  won't want to pursue the truth because you may not like the answer. You're not willing to make China pay which can help motivate them to correct their behavior but others will.

   Will someone call the WH to come hire this guy?  No further comment necessary.

[BC]

It was an opinion piece, BC.

Yes, understand.

[BillyB]

I *think* Egypt did it.  They should pay.


Prove me wrong anyone.

You're going to have to take that claim up with China. They already said it came from a meat market of theirs.

A Chinese expert spoke in the Jan3  article below. Yuen Kwok-Yung, a microbiologist at the University of Hong Kong.  says "It is highly unlikely that this outbreak will lead to a major [SARS-like] epidemic" I wonder if we can add his statement to the famous last words list?

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/novel-human-virus-pneumonia-cases-linked-seafood-market-china-stir-concern

Do we know if their published infection rate with a draconian lockdown which IIRC was much stricter, harsher and faster, can be correlated with lockdowns of other highly developed nations?  Will be interesting to find out one of these days.  We don't even know yet what the US rate will be.

The type of lockdowns enacted can be reflect on the total number of infections and infection rate. But explain this....China and other Communist nations have a much lower case fatality rate than Wester nations. Do you think citizens of Communist nations have better immunity to the virus?

[Faux Pas]

I *think* Egypt did it.  They should pay.


Prove me wrong anyone.

Egypt isn't smart enough and lacks technology, Egypt wasn't there and besides Egypt doesn't even have a dog

[fathertime]

The US may be many things, some of them not pretty.   

One small throwaway line just to pretend you are being fair-minded....then conjecturous sonnets all about 'evil' China.   All because they were competitively beating us. 

So there is China, sitting smug, claiming that the number of cases from ground zero were an order of number smaller than other countries with a lesser population density and or population.   And the countries are struggling with the number of deaths that its population has to endure.   

So, yeah, it rankles.

You rankle easily.   

You added that China is sitting 'smugly' just to elicit more hatred towards them.   It makes perfect sense that they didn't suffer as many deaths as you angrily wish they should have.  They sacrificed and locked down a part of their country for 76 days.  We (The USA) haven't locked down for 10 minutes.   The US has decided the economy is more important than saving every life possible.  Perhaps we won't take as big a hit economically because of that decision, but the price will be paid in blood.  Don't pin US decisions on China.  Other countries have also kept their death rate much lower than the USA's.

Fathertime!   

[jone]

Nice ad hominem attacks.